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raindancewx

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  1. These are the top SOI matches to 2021 for May-July from 1931-2020 (+3.9, +0.0, +16.3 in 2021 for each month respectively). I had used Spring 1979 as an analog for Spring 2021, given that the cold-ENSO 1978-79 winter followed two El Ninos near/following the solar minimum (1976-77, 1977-78) and had ~record +NAO/AO values in November before transitioning to a huge cold period in late winter. NAO was +3.0 or something insane in Nov 1978 before dying later on. Was pretty similar in 2020 and I knew that by the time I did the Spring Outlook in February. The 7th closest SOI match (really a ~ three-way tie between 1936, 1939, and 1960) is 1960, and the 1959-60 winter was also very similar at times (Dec/Feb) for temp patterns nationally, and 1960 has worked sporadically as a match in Spring/Summer 2021. If you don't know, 1936 and 2011 are both very hot Summers nationally, so interesting to see them both show up as top matches. July 1960 had incredible heat in the Northwest, similar to 2021. The "look" that is supposed to happen in August nationally is fairly similar to August 1939, 1936 blended toward 1939, and then maybe a touch colder overall. SOI May June July Distance (less = closer to 2021) 1979 +4.0 +4.5 +13.6 (warm-Neutral winter) (7.2 off) 2011 +2.1 +0.9 +9.1 (La Nina winter) (9.8 off) 2010 +10.5 +1.3 +18.7 (La Nina winter) (10.3 off) 1974 +10.6 +1.7 +11.1 (La Nina winter) (13.5 off) 1939 -0.4 -1.8 +7.5 (El Nino winter) (14.9 off) 1936 +4.7 -1.8 +3.9 (warm-Neutral winter) (15.0 off) Blend: +5.3 +0.8 +10.7 2021 +3.9 +0.0 +16.3
  2. Subsurface heat content for May-July 0-300m below 100-180W in the Tropical Pacific best matches 1981, 1987, 2014, 2014 as a blend. The blend of those four features big drops in the subsurface at similar magnitude to 2021 in May-->June, June-->July. Historically, for 1979-2020, most years around -0.3 to -0.4 in July subsurface readings do end up as La Ninas, but quite a few in that area are Neutrals. A lot of years are borderline too, with only 1-3 months 0.5C or colder than the 1951-2010 average in Nino 3.4. When I talk about a Neutral that's what I mean. I'm pretty sure the surface will drop to La Nina cold levels - just not convinced it will be long enough for an official event yet. Last year, you already had the subsurface very cold in Apr-Aug prior to the surface getting cold enough to be in a La Nina in late August. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07JUL2021 22.2 0.1 26.0-0.0 27.4-0.0 28.9-0.1 14JUL2021 22.2 0.4 25.9 0.1 27.2-0.1 28.6-0.4 21JUL2021 22.1 0.6 25.2-0.4 26.8-0.5 28.5-0.4 28JUL2021 22.1 0.8 25.1-0.4 26.7-0.4 28.7-0.1 We're seeing a very nice Summer locally, with cool to near average highs in May, June, and July, wet conditions and somewhat warm lows. Total year to date 90 degree highs here are running below the 100 year median and average. Part of that to me is that La Nina doesn't seem to switch on until ~26C in winter, and even in August it's ~26.15C (26.65C is average for 1951-2020). So we're just not that close yet at the surface, with 27.0-27.1C likely to be the monthly number for July.
  3. One thing 2013 has going for it outside the tropics is the y/y transition in the Arctic. The 2012 and 2020 sea ice extent were both very low with dis-favorable patterns up there in Summer. We seem to be in a better pattern for the ice retention in Summer 2021 - so far anyway - similar to how Summer 2013 was. I had used 2012-13 as a double weighted analog last year ahead of winter, mostly for precipitation patterns nationally rather than temperature patterns, so it's been interesting to see 2013 is still a decent match. July 2013 is pretty similar to the temperature spatial pattern of July 2021 nationally, and drought nuking rain of July 2013 has been present in the Southwest. I kind of "knew" this was coming, which is why I was so annoyed in that "look it's hot SW" climate thread from June when it was obvious we are entering our wettest Summer pattern in literally years. Here is Albuquerque for July 2021 v. July 2020:
  4. Right now, 2013 is a decent match for SSTs globally. It's amazing how different the weeklies, tropical tidbits, and these maps all look frankly. I would say we're behind 2013-14 still at the surface, and I don't consider that year a La Nina for winter. That cold water off western North America is the main issue with 2013.
  5. My interest in looking at the NAO is mostly from a national temperature perspective rather than identifying periods for Nor'easters or something. In that sense, it is most useful from about mid-January to mid-April. For Nov-Jan, the AO is more important in terms of long-term correlations. For precipitation, the NAO actually has some pretty strong correlations in various places too. The WPO is actually pretty useful in Sept-Nov, and then in Feb-Apr for temperature patterns too, in a correlation sense. Locally, the +NAO/AO is actually a good signal later on if it happens in November from what I can see. The seven winters with 'rising' but still low solar are all -AO winters too, if that's your preferred measure. November NAO values are a good long-term indicator here for how wet late Spring will be, but otherwise it's not that useful until later in winter for national patterns for temps/precip. The long-term WPO correlations on the other hand correspond almost perfectly to some of the wild temperature pattern swings in the Fall and Spring in the past year. My point with the NAO/AO stuff isn't that I can see with 100% certainty that they'll be negative this winter. It's just we're nearing the end of the historical 'solar' time frame when odds of a -NAO winter are likely. To me it's worth figuring out whether we'll have one more winter with an extended -NAO/AO before we predominantly switch back to mostly positive NAO/AO winters. New Mexico is uniquely weird in that we get our top snow years in both the highest NAO/AO and lowest NAO/AO winters. So I'm actually pretty indifferent about what ends up happening typically, since most years are relatively neutral. You could see solar activity rise from 16 sunspots/month to 30, about the level of gain from 2019-20 to 2020-21. Or you could see it rise to 68 or something if we're going into a bigger cycle (more active sun) than last time. In the latter case, there is no particular signal in the solar data. April 2021 NAO was also negative like April 2020, which hadn't happened in forever prior to 2020, so that was my first tip off to pay attention to it again this year. Most people seem to use Nino 3.4 as an estimate for what the PNA is going to do, even though the correlation is ~0.3 r-squared for DJF, and much weaker in December. The Nino 3.4 to PNA correlation in August is literally stronger than December to Nino 3.4 for the PNA, so I always find the way it is used to be a bit strange. The image below actually supports a La Nina though, as the PNA correlation to Nino 3.4 is negative (+PNA = -ENSO) long term. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_dec.txt https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_jan.txt https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/table/corr.table_feb.txt
  6. -NAO (DJF) winters (in aggregate): 1954, 1955, 1957, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1986, 1997, 2009, 2010, 2020. I would argue a year like 2000-01 or 1967-68 is more "-nao" in reality than a "fake" -nao year like 1997-98, but the point is, roughly half of years with rising solar since 1950 see a net -NAO in winter. The "rising" but still low (<55 sunspots per month July-Jun) years are: 1954, 1965, 1986, 1997, 2009, 2010, 2020. That's seven for seven for a net -NAO, whereas the "rising" but high years are six for twenty. The odds are not bad overall even if you want to regress the 7 for 7 with the x+1/y+2 rule with some Bayesian assumptions, i.e. assume the trend would go from 7/7 to 8/9. The 2021-22 July-June solar year is starting off with around 40 sunspots this month - going to be real interesting to see how rapidly solar rises this year. It's harder to predict than the decays from the peak solar I find.
  7. Albuquerque has had two or three flash flood warnings this July. Something like 0.02" at the airport those days, with 3-5 inches elsewhere in the city. Just ridiculously localized events. Drought has really been getting it's ass kicked though. National pattern this month has some resemblance to July 2013, so not too surprising. I'm leaning toward an early peaking very weak La Nina Modoki this winter, with the North Pacific very warm basin wide and a relatively cool eastern Atlantic. There are a lot of ways to match what the CFS shows for the winter sea surface temperatures, but I think 2016 + 1960 or 1967, blended with more recent years is probably the it will go. Something like a blend of 1960-61, 1967-68, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2016-17, 2020-21 gets you the right PDO/AMO/Solar/Modoki/low sea ice configuration at about the right ENSO strength. Still a lot of refining to do on my end though.
  8. To me, and this isn't my forecast - I'll link it here when I finish by 10/10/21 - the CFS SST anomaly forecast looks like a blend of 1960-61, 1967-68, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2016-17 and 2020-21, with weak La Nina Modoki peaking NDJ, around 150W at it's core. I warmed up the oceans by 0.2C to account for the warming from the average analog date of 1997 (~0.2C of warming for 24 years). It's hard to match that level of warmth east of Japan - I think it will spread out more than what the model shows. The weaker tendency for cold ENSO by South America looks correct to me. December 1960 / 1967 are actually stupid cold in some places nationally, but it gets wiped out by the other years for the default "warm Nino 4" look we so often see in recent Decembers. That said, I do think something similar to December 1960 is possible nationally if things break a certain way over the next few months. These winters where all four Nino zones are convective-ly shut down or diminished seem to be the most volatile of the cold ENSO years.
  9. You can see compared to last year, this event has developed differently. Western origin in 2021 v. Eastern origin in 2020. Nino 1.2 and Nino 3 were both very cold already last year. But, Nino 4 was still pretty normal. Last year shifted from being coldest East to coldest West. My current sense is you won't see a big shift to the Eastern Zones coldest. But that's something to look for in the coming months. 10JUN2020 22.2-1.0 25.7-1.0 27.1-0.7 28.8-0.2 17JUN2020 22.2-0.7 25.7-0.8 27.2-0.6 29.1 0.1 24JUN2020 21.6-1.0 25.8-0.5 27.6-0.0 29.3 0.3 01JUL2020 21.1-1.2 25.5-0.6 27.3-0.2 29.1 0.1 08JUL2020 21.1-0.9 25.3-0.6 27.2-0.3 29.1 0.1 15JUL2020 20.2-1.5 25.1-0.7 27.0-0.3 28.8-0.1 22JUL2020 20.2-1.3 25.0-0.7 26.8-0.5 28.7-0.2 09JUN2021 23.2-0.0 26.7-0.0 27.8-0.0 28.9-0.1 16JUN2021 23.3 0.4 26.0-0.5 27.2-0.5 28.8-0.2 23JUN2021 22.9 0.2 26.3-0.0 27.6-0.0 29.0 0.0 30JUN2021 22.6 0.3 26.2 0.0 27.5-0.1 28.8-0.1 07JUL2021 22.2 0.1 26.0-0.0 27.4-0.0 28.9-0.1 14JUL2021 22.2 0.4 25.9 0.1 27.2-0.1 28.6-0.4 21JUL2021 22.1 0.6 25.2-0.4 26.8-0.5 28.5-0.4 For my purposes, La Nina conditions in July or August should be 0.5C below the reading observed from 1951-2010. So for July, that's 26.54C or colder, and 26.15C or colder for August. CPC uses 26.79C as -0.5C for July and 26.36C as -0.5C for August using the most recent 30-year period. I think those thresholds are too warm to sync correctly with La Nina conditions. You can see sort of see that with the cold south look for this month.
  10. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09JUN2021 23.2-0.0 26.7-0.0 27.8-0.0 28.9-0.1 16JUN2021 23.3 0.4 26.0-0.5 27.2-0.5 28.8-0.2 23JUN2021 22.9 0.2 26.3-0.0 27.6-0.0 29.0 0.0 30JUN2021 22.6 0.3 26.2 0.0 27.5-0.1 28.8-0.1 07JUL2021 22.2 0.1 26.0-0.0 27.4-0.0 28.9-0.1 14JUL2021 22.2 0.4 25.9 0.1 27.2-0.1 28.6-0.4 21JUL2021 22.1 0.6 25.2-0.4 26.8-0.5 28.5-0.4 Haven't run it yet, but we'll interesting finding years with +May, +Jun, -Jul subsurface readings. We're probably going to flip into a Modoki La Nina in August, and then it may spread east later.
  11. Should probably start looking at cold-ENSO years with weakening drought in NM/TX/AZ in May-July given how wet we've been lately. This tends to happen pretty reliably after we get our 600 decameter bs down here (we had record cold and rain in June too after, similar to the wet period following a hot period/strong high now), not that anyone ever rolls those events forward.
  12. My NAO method doesn't work until September finishes, but just as a gut take, I thought this would be another winter with significant NAO volatility. Historically, you don't get ever get -NAO in February after a warm Nino 4 February (one year lag v. 28.85C if memory serves) using the 1981-2010 NAO baseline. You don't have that issue this year. Locally, the tendency in cold ENSO years is for July/Dec, and Aug/Feb to be negatively correlated twins. So when July is warm, I look for a cold December (worked last year), and when August is warm I look for a cold February. We had all time record heat in August last year, and then severe cold in February. August looks much colder here than 2020, which is consistent with a warmer West late winter/March and/or -NAO February/March (probably as an El Nino begins to rapidly develop late winter if I had to guess). Generally if it is very wet in the Southwest the final week of July, you guys in the East get your big Christmas warm up with a big low moving out of the Southwest. The monsoon has been pretty unusual (and non-traditional) and robust this year, so we'll see how that goes soon enough.
  13. Exact Nino 3.4 July monthly figure will be interesting. From 1950-2020, the DJF value hasn't dropped off by more than ~1.8C from that level, and typically ~90%+ of the time, you'd get a smaller or much smaller drop off, even in a La Nina. ~27.25C in July and then a 1.75C drop to DJF would be around the 90-99th percentile for a drop, and still only as strong as last year. So a warmer cold ENSO event is the likely outcome. That said, 2017 had the 1.8C drop from July to DJF. The CFS doesn't really favor anything more than a whisper of cold at the moment for what it's worth. But it changes all the time. It has a weak modoki La Nina or cold Neutral - a few days ago it had no blue in Nino 3.4/4 at all.
  14. Should be another pretty weird winter nationally. My hunch is we get a pretty rapid collapse in any La Nina / near La Nina that peaks around 11/1 in late winter. Then warms up from the east like a diet Spring 1997 by Spring 2022. La Nina with rapidly rising solar activity on a July-June annualized basis is kind of unusual if that's what we get. La Nina + Declining Solar (1930-2020): 1933-34, 1938-39, 1942-43, 1949-50, 1950-51, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76, 1983-84, 1984-85, 1995-96, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2005-06, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18 La Nina + Rapidly Rising Solar (1930-2020): 1955-56, 1956-57, 1988-89, 2010-11, 2011-12 La Nina + Weakly Rising (1930-2020): 1954-55, 2000-01, 2020-21 A lot of the "near" La Nina Neutrals are in the rising solar category too. It's definitely interesting that the three "weakly rising" La Ninas are all pretty cold for La Ninas where I am, with pretty substantial cold dumps that repeated cyclically on a national basis. Years Jul-Jun 1931 25.1 1932 14.5 1933 9.1 1934 27.6 1935 97.0 1936 172.8 1937 180.8 1938 171.6 1939 125.9 1940 94.4 1941 76.5 1942 33.9 1943 14.2 1944 33.8 1945 95.8 1946 197.9 1947 205.9 1948 194.4 1949 164.9 1950 103.4 1951 62.8 1952 36.4 1953 9.5 1954 19.2 1955 119.8 1956 237.6 1957 281.6 1958 255.4 1959 184.2 1960 116.6 1961 67.1 1962 42.2 1963 29.1 1964 16.6 1965 37.1 1966 104.2 1967 145.0 1968 155.7 1969 148.6 1970 115.7 1971 100.5 1972 75.4 1973 44.8 1974 34.6 1975 23.6 1976 23.2 1977 84.1 1978 169.9 1979 233.4 1980 199.1 1981 195.5 1982 129.2 1983 82.7 1984 25.9 1985 16.1 1986 19.1 1987 65.3 1988 182.8 1989 200.7 1990 200.8 1991 177.8 1992 103.3 1993 53.8 1994 36.9 1995 14.9 1996 14.5 1997 54.9 1998 115.2 1999 163.2 2000 163.4 2001 176.0 2002 131.0 2003 82.0 2004 55.3 2005 34.7 2006 20.1 2007 7.2 2008 2.3 2009 13.2 2010 44.0 2011 94.0 2012 87.4 2013 108.7 2014 90.7 2015 55.8 2016 28.5 2017 15.0 2018 5.5 2019 2.1 2020 16.1
  15. The top matches in Nino 3, 3.4, and Nino 4 for Apr-Jun are below. The July weeklies have 26.0C currently in Nino 3, well warm of the top Nino 3 matches for Apr-Jun. Nino 3.4 in July is a bit better, still trending like 1986 and 2001. The best Apr-Jun match overall is 1967. That winter is crazy (go look Dec 1967 US temps), and one of the very coldest Nino 3 winters on record even though 3.4 isn't that cold. The matches for 1967, 1986, 1996, 2001 are pretty solid for AMJ. 60-yr in green is the 1951-2010 average by month. My gut instinct after last winter was we'd have kind of a cold-neutral Modoki La Nina look to 2021-22. That's kind of where we are now - but it's unlikely to hold through winter. July 1961 is also a fairly decent SST match in the Pacific/Atlantic. Terrible IOD match though, so probably won't hold.
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