Roger Smith

Don't know about that yet, most majors occur in Sept-Oct (or late Aug). Outside chance one of these twin storms makes cat-3. Then all to play for in Sept-Oct.

13/2/0 in this Year of the Weak Tropical Storm. Could go to 13/4/0 if both Laura and Marco become marginal canes. Anyone care to hazard an updated guess? I would say 28/15/3 at this rate. The later storms are much more likely to start beefing up. Main question is, will this production rate continue? If so, we are climatologically one-third of the way into the season for total count, adjust that for more likely hurricane outcomes, and you get to something like 40/20/?? as any majors will evidently have to come from the Greek alphabet at this rate.

First look at anomalies and projections ... ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 9th ____ (8d) ___________+1.8 _ +1.6 _ +2.9 _ --1.2 _ +1.8 _ --0.1 _ +2.4 _ +5.5 _ +1.2 16th __ (15d) __________ +2.1 _ +2.7 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +1.5 _ +2.9 _ +6.0 _ +0.9 23rd __ (22d) __________ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +4.5 _ +5.7 _ +2.4 30th __ (29d) __________ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +4.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +4.9 _ +6.1 _ +2.1 9th __ (p15d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ --0.3 _ +2.5 _ +5.0 _ +1.5 16th __ (p22d) _________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.5 9th __ (p25d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ +1.0 16th __ (p31d) _________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 _ +1.0 23rd __ (p31d) _________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0*_ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0 30th __ (p31d) _________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0 1st __ (31d anom) _____ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +4.4_ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +4.5_ +5.5 _ +1.8 __ Seasonal Max to date ___ 99 __ 96 __ 95 ___ 97 __ 96 __102 ____100 _ 118 __ 98 _____________________ 9th _ Rather subdued warmth except for the ongoing blistering heat in the west. Chicago in fact running a bit below average. The following week looks near average in many areas and continued very warm in the west. Have taken the projections for 16th-25th from assumptions of persistence as pattern looks fairly similar. No seasonal max changes so far in August, will post any that do show up (see July thread for the report on seasonal max to date). 16th _ Little change although far west warming rapidly, 16th hit new seasonal max for SEA at 98 F. 23rd _ Staying hot in the west, and near normal in the east, new seasonal maxes of 117 PHX, 100 DEN, 102 IAH. *27th _ Revised projection for ORD from +1.5 to +3.0 as currently +3.7, only slight cooling now indicated. 30th _ slight changes as we approach final validation. 1st _ Final anomalies were posted overnight and scoring is updated.

9/2/0 ... on the way to 45/10/0.

Table of forecasts for August 2020 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay __________________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+1.5 __0.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 Brian5671 ____________________ +2.5 _+2.8 _+3.0 __ +2.0 _+2.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 Roger Smith __________________ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +3.5 _+3.0 _+2.0 Jakkelwx _____________________ +2.3 _+2.8 _+2.7 __ +2.4 _+3.1 _+3.2 ___ +0.4 _+1.1 _--0.8 wxallannj _____________________ +2.3 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.1 ___ +0.4 _+2.1 _+0.1 hudsonvalley21 _______________+2.1 _+2.4 _+2.3 __ +1.8 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___ +0.1 _+1.3 _+0.3 ___ Consensus ________________+2.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 __ +1.1 _+1.5 _+1.2 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+0.2 BKViking _____________________ +2.1 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +0.8 _+1.3 _+1.0 ___ +1.1 _+1.8 _+0.3 wxdude64 ____________________ +1.8 _+1.2 _+2.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+0.1 ___ --0.3 _+2.3 _--0.3 Tom __________________________+1.6 _+1.5 _+1.9 __ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 ___ +0.9 _+1.2 _--0.2 DonSutherland1 ______________ +1.5 _+1.7 _+1.6 __ +0.2 _+0.3 _+0.3 ____ 0.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 RodneyS _____________________ +0.9 _+1.3 _+2.2 __ +0.9 __0.0 _--0.4 ___ +1.5 _+2.7 _+0.3 Normal ________________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ------------------------------------------------------------ Note: forecasts color coded to show highest and lowest. Normal is lower than all forecasts for all locations except ATL (tied) and IAH, DEN and SEA (one or more forecasts below 0.0).

Thanks, Scotty, I have been a bit generous with late forecasts all year so your bite won't be very big when I get to the table of forecasts, something I hope to do this evening.

Tried to alert Scotty Lightning but his account does not accept PMs, and he only seems to come into the forum to enter this contest (very few posts otherwise). Calling Dr Lightning to the operating theater. July is fully scored and updated. Quite a good contest going on above me.

If the west coast ridge flattens out in August, look out ... extreme heat has developed over the Pacific northwest region, highs today were near 110 degrees in eastern WA and OR and some parts of southern ID. These are near-record values. It is about 97 F at my house and I live above 4,000' halfway up a mountain range, valley readings in southern BC are near 100 F. This is about the fifth day of this heat wave with very little air movement, luckily the low humidity means it cools off significantly after sunset. We get to lows of 65-68 F which is somewhat refreshing. Lower elevations south of the border stay in the mid 70s in their heat waves. Basically this is desert southwest heat that decided this might be a good place to set up for a while.

Just a heads up to the half dozen NYC forum members who participate in the temperature forecast contest (main forum), deadline fast approaching.

8/1/0 and it's July 27th ... ... extrapolation from normal pace is 40/5/0. Under our normal scoring rules everyone would score zero. LOL

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1981-2010 averages) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (please note I may be off the internet for some fairly long portions of August, if contest not being promptly maintained in the usual way, I shall return ... ) Just in case here's an early placeholder forecast: 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 2.5 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.5 __ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 2.0

Based on climate reports, only IAD changed value today, but BWI has reached 100 since the report so can't guarantee that there won't be a change there later. (edit, BWI held at 100, no further changes required) FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 45 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 12 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 10 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 10 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 12 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 10 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 8 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 6 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 6 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 5 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 6 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 5 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ____ 7 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 3 (currently tied leader) C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 7 ___ Actual to date _____ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 5 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 3 (currently tied leader) Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 3 (currently tied leader) Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 9 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ___ 11 JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 9 note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics. values that are currently equal to seasonal max appear in green. _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 ==================================================================== If BWI has a final report of 101, then nwbaltimorewx would move ahead with 2 points.

If IAD reports 99 as max, and nothing else changes, we have a three-way tie at three points, the two current leaders add one point, Rhino16 drops one to move into the leadership tie. If IAD reports 100 as max, and no other changes, then we have a four-way tie with those three joined by WinstonSalem Arlington at 4 points. However there's some chance of other changes taking place, won't know for a while. RIC hasn't been very close to yesterday's 101.

I will update the provisional scoring when I can confirm today's maxima, daily climate reports are a bit late hitting the screen. I wasn't aware that BWI had hit 100 today, will change that and the 98 for IAD. (later edit -- confirmed the 100 at BWI and 98 at IAD from climate reports, but 101 at RIC, moves Wxwatcher007 back into a tie with nwbaltimorewx who had edged ahead when RIC was set at 100). If tomorrow is a bit hotter as you're thinking is possible, then all of this is academic anyway. A number of us are lurking.

These updates are now confirmed from climate reports, to be adjusted later if necessary, check back for edits. ... FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 46 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 13 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 11 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 11 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 13 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 11 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ____ 9 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 5 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 7 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 6 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 7 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 6 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ____ 8 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 2 (currently tied leader) C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 8 ___ Actual to date _____ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 4 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 4 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 2 (currently tied leader) Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 8 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ___ 10 JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 8 note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics. values that are currently equal to seasonal max appear in green. _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 ====================================================================

updates for Sunday 19th -- later confirmed -- BWI 100 DCA 99 IAD 98 RIC 101

Slight movement in the contest scoring after the past two days. Updated scoring to date ... FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 55 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 22 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 20 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 20 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 22 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 20 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 18 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 12 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 14 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 15 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 16 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 15 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 17 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 9 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 17 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 5 (current leaders) Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 9 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 7 ___ Actual to date ______98 __ 98 __ 97 __ 96 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 5 (current leaders) TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 5 (current leaders) JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 7 note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics. _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 ==================================================================== Changes will be made to this on Sunday 19th with DCA at 99 and RIC 100 (hourly obs) so far. Lots of time left for higher values to emerge, 65% of years have their annual max later than today's date (the median is July 24).

And we have our first action since the contest was closed for entries, DCA moves up to 97. BWI and RIC tied their previous highs of 96 and 94 (on Friday 3rd). IAD hit 94 but had 95 previously. Table amended to show the new value for DCA, "Actual" remains below most forecasts or in a few cases tied with them, but DCA has now moved past one forecast. I have added total departures to the table. This table will be edited for a week or two if we keep moving up, so if there are later posts, scroll back to it. Location forecasts that are passed by reality will change to italic type. FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 62 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 29 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 27 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 27 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 29 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 27 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 25 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 19 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 21 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 22 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 23 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 22 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 24 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 16 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 24 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 12 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 14 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 14 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 10 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 6 (current leader) JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 8 ___ Actual to date ______96 __ 97 __ 95 __ 94 _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

Table of entries for 2020 N Atl hurricane seasonal forecast Two expert predictions are added to the field, the NHC numbers are middle of their range and CSU gave specific values as shown. Other institutional predictions can be seen at this link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season Your forecasts are shown in order of number of named storms, then broken down by hurricanes and major hurricanes. FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 ______________________________________________________________ 19 forecasts (and the two expert predictions) ... means as shown for consensus in table. The contest means do not include the two expert predictions although they would not change much with them included.

Table of entries -- 2020 seasonal maxima in the Mid-Atlantic region Forecasts appear by order of BWI predictions, then sorted by DCA, IAD and RIC where tied to that point. Consensus is derived from medians although means would be similar. With 20 forecasts the median is the average of 10th and 11th ranked. The actual maximum to date will move up through this table (we can presume) to its eventual resting place. Later in the contest, a table of departures will be posted to show the evolving results of the contest. FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 JakkelWx ______________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ___ Actual to date ______ 96 __ 93 __ 95 __ 94 _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

Okay, just a notice that this contest will close for entries at the end of the day Monday, the deadline is set at 06z 16th which is 0200h EDT (after midnight Monday, very early Tuesday) .... I will take entries as shown then so you can edit today or Monday without the need to notify. The table of entries will be based on what I see on Tuesday morning (will have the table of entries up within a few hours of the deadline). Don't forget we are at 3/0/0 so it's that plus whatever you think will happen to end of the year for a prediction of the overall seasonal count. Good luck !!

Monday 15th is the last day for entries or for editing your existing entries. No need to notify on edits, I will construct a table of entries from what I see on Tuesday. You can enter up to the end of the day (06z Tuesday is the cutoff). I will post a closed for entries note and start on the table of entries at that time. Good luck !!

Thanks for entries so far, will leave this open for more entries until June 15th and you can edit any entries you've made without notice, I won't be recording any predictions until I declare the contest closed. Since 95% of years have a max after that date and often a month or two after it, I can't see that people will gain much advantage but we'll see.

Prince Frederick laid down his crown and his ermine robes, and wandered off to who knows where, promising to return next winter. That could be 2038 the way things were going the past two so-called winters. Meanwhile he asked me to defend the realm (which I won't due to a nasty combination of inability and lack of funding) and to start a summer heat forecast contest, which I think is the only real reason for this post. Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the highest temperatures to be observed at each of (you guessed it) BWI, DCA, IAD and SLC just kidding RIC. You can add SLC if you want, choose any number between 99 and 101 and you'll be right. Wonderful scenery, non-challenging climate they have round Utah, I would go and tell you more but they won't let me in because of some cough going around. Anyway, here's my opening salvo in this contest, torn between the idea that the cold spell in May guarantees a scorcher, or just possibly is a sign of some long awaited return to the climate of the 1850s. Fat chance of that, so I will go with BWI _ 103 DCA _ 103 IAD _ 101 RIC _ 102 and make the bold prediction that I will not be dead last, or dead, or last, but ya never know. The real deadline is not T384 but whenever we have a nice turnout and I spot anything on the model runs that looks like potential action in this contest. Let's say it won't close before June 10th end of day, but could go a few days past that. And once again I for one (insert verb of choice) my Mid-Atl overlords from my distant outpost beyond the hills. Get a 10% discount by mentioning "lack of contrails" in your post.

Here's the annual "hurricane forecast contest" with a simplified format compared to other recent years, just the seasonal count is required this year, no monthly details. You can add your thoughts about that of course. The contest remains open to mid-June as the June monthly count won't be all that big a deal-breaker. Keep in mind that with Arthur's brief reign of slight disruption the count is already 1/0/0. My entry will be 20/13/7 so quite an active year and I suspect the main focus of activity may be the east coast for a change. That's not to say the usual areas of activity won't see their fair share, but I am expecting some fairly strong storms to develop in the Atlantic near the Carolinas possibly impacting the mid-Atlantic states more often than we've seen in several years. Post your forecasts and discussions ...