Roger Smith

The 40" event around BGM and 30" generally from there to central NH could pay some dividends for your region eventually. That snow pack is going to be there until there's two weeks of thaw (maybe late Feb to Mar) so any time good synoptics show up, any arctic highs ahead of snowfalls should be beefed up over the inland northeast. From this GFS run, would tag the period Jan 3-5 as promising, there's deep winter cold showing up for several days before that and a strong low diving southeast into the plains states at end of the run (Jan 2). Would have to suspect that might recurve around the Carolinas into a powerful nor'easter. The Christmas Day event looks at this point like a flash freeze, near 60 on the 24th, near 20 on the 25th. Probably a region wide dusting from that, 1-3" max potential. Will be more interesting for the temperature drop.

I didn't know there were cliques, I just thought maybe it was a regional tradition to have really pointed squabbles in public, threaten to leave, then reconcile and go into it all over again the next time snow appeared in a forecast. Where I live, we are more or less resigned to our fate (non stop snow until March). In the case of this particular event I don't think there would be enough people interested to bother with a thread, now if the later model runs put your major population centres into the heavy snow zone, different ball game.

Thanks, I wonder why the Chinese state meteorological agency doesn't post maps of that sort? Hardly seems like a national secret. Except for Manchuria and higher parts of the western mountains, most of China seems to see very little snow most years.

Yep, sorry for cluttering up the thread ... would prefer if a more locally based poster started contest (or any other) threads, I did it with the summer heat one but really I am more of a guest than a host around here.

That's 2.2" snow crushed under heavy sleet, maybe it all goes for more than 2.2" -- revise to 2.5" separate thread? if somebody more locally based thinks it's a good idea, will defer to that ... don't know if more than a handful would want to venture a guess on this slopfest. 8-16 further north though, Harrisburg PA inaccessible to outside world (probably a good thing).

You're in the hunt for DCA though. Until Thursday at least.

Contest within a contest? BWI 2.2 DCA 1.9 IAD 6.1 RIC Tr (16th-17th)

Tracking anomalies and projections for December ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th ___ (10d anom) _ --0.2 _--0.3 _+0.2 ___ +6.0 _--2.4 _--2.1 ___ +8.9 _+2.2 _+4.4 21st ___ (20d anom) _ +0.6 _--0.1 _ --0.9 ___ +5.8 _+0.3 _--1.7 ___+2.0 _+0.2 _+4.9 11th ___ (p20d anom)_ --1.5 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ +2.0 _--1.5 _--1.5 ___ +3.0 __0.0 _+1.0 11th ___ (p26d anom) _ --2.5 _--2.5 _--2.5 ___ 0.0 _ --2.0 _ --2.0 ___ 0.0 __ -1.0 _ 0.0 21st ___ (p31d anom) _ 0.0 __ 0.0 __--1.0 ___+3.0__ 0.0 _ --1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.5 _+3.0 31st-1st __ finals ______+1.7_ +1.7_ +1.3 ___+5.1 _+0.8 _ +1.0 ____+3.1 _+0.4_+3.8 _____________________________________ (11th) _ The month started out rather cool in the east and quite warm in the west. These trends are reversing briefly, then much colder air is expected to arrive in a few days and persist with a few variations most of the rest of the month. Anomalies seem likely to fall towards negative values where not already there. (21st) _ Not quite as cold middle third as expected so anomalies have levelled off a bit higher than forecast. A further change applies to the original p26th as now the days 22nd-24th are looking quite mild in the east. The end of month anomalies will likely not be far from zero at several stations so I set them there, small to medium positives should be retained at ORD, DEN, PHX and SEA. As always DEN will be bouncing up and down with the passage of a strong low (now dumping snow at my place) tomorrow night, a few days of -15 type anomalies to follow a few near +10, then levelling off near normal end of month. Not warm enough to save my overly ambitious call. Provisional scoring to follow ... (31st - 1st Jan 2021) _ slowly but surely assembling the final results, my pace might be a bit more leisurely given the context but would expect to have December scored by noon to 2 p.m. NYD, then on to the final annual results, which as I mentioned in the thread subtitle, looks like a wide open free-for-all as far as 2nd to 5th places go, RodneyS has no doubt locked up the annual contest win, congrats to him. Posting final anomalies and estimates of them where not complete, scoring table will eventually conform to them but at any given moment it may not be updated from the earlier provisionals posted. (as of 0615 EST, all anomalies now final). (BOS having some issues, they posted their Dec CF6 with 31st missing, but that climate report is available, temps look sensible, 90.0" of snow likely some kind of bizarre system failure or the guy from Vermont dumped his load at Logan airport, not sure which).

Oh okay, I thought it might have been closer to average because with all that cold air around where I was (northeast of Toronto, we had a week where it never got above zero F) I figured the storm track must have been quite a bit to the south, I suppose it was just bad timing with the jet stream depressed but no energy. So maybe it will work out somewhat similar but with better timed energy. I do think the analogue will work out on a large scale but details like timing of energy can make a fairly substantial difference in a few places. Where I was, there was never all that much snow on the ground, wrong lake effect wind pattern (mostly NW, we did better with WNW) but some placed got absolutely buried in lake effect snow, for example, London ON. They had to go around and mark the positions of fire hydrants with 15 ft poles so the snowplows wouldn't shear them off. And all that was completely gone in about a week when it turned warm in mid to late February.

Here's my speculation ... not much will happen in December, until possibly late in the month, January will be quite variable and will bring one or two decent winter storm scenarios, February will continue that trend for about the first half then turn very warm, March will be a warmish month too, perhaps one late snowfall event even into early April. Overall, a fairly average winter but some good spells for winter enthusiasts, some not so great. Persistent west coast ridge development can be expected, downstream from that, two different patterns may oscillate, one would be highly amped flow favoring inland storm track and mild temperatures in your region, the other would be a broad trough with the polar vortex dropping into Hudson Bay and Quebec, possible snowfall events might come then as storm track would be something like the current event only with more cold air around in mid-winter. Best analogue would be 1975-76. Did you get much snow that winter? I was living in Ontario then, we had a lot of lake effect and some transient low pressure snowfalls and an early end to winter with record highs around Feb 25 to 29. The March 1976 storm track must have been through PA and NY because we had very heavy mixed falls for a few days, sleet and ice pellets, it all turned to rain and there was a severe flood when the heavy winter snow pack melted. From what I recall there were not a lot of coastal lows that winter.

Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021 -- Table of entries Any other entries welcome, deadline Dec 3 midnight (edits accepted also -- forecast includes any already measured to spring end of season) (DEN to date 10.0" ORD 0.7" DTW 3.5" BUF 0.8" and BTV 2.7" ) at end of Nov ... updated totals will appear in the table of forecasts below. FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV snowfall to Dec 17 ___ Tr __ 10.5 _ 17.3 ___ 0.7 __ 9.2 __ 9.6 ___ 15.1 __ 0.0 __ 8.5 wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 __ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 _________________________________________________________________________ Table of forecasts for December 2020 FORECASTER ________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith _________ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.8 ___ +7.9 _ +3.5 _ +2.4 BKViking _____________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +0.2 _ +0.6 _ +1.0 ___ +2.4 _ +1.9 _ +0.2 Tom _________________ +1.7 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ --0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 ___ +1.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.4 RJay _________________+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 hudsonvalley21 ______+1.3 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 ___ +2.1 _ +2.1 _ +2.3 ___ Consensus _______+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 wxallannj ____________ +1.1 _ +1.9 _ +2.4 __ +1.2 _ --0.7 _ +0.4 ___ +2.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 DonSutherland 1 _____+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.9 __ +2.3 _ --0.4 _ --0.1 ___ +2.6 _ +1.8 _ +3.0 Scotty Lightning _____ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ --0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _____________+0.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.7 __ +2.3 __ 0.0 _ +2.1 ___ --0.6 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___ Normal ____________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 ____________--0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.2 __ --0.5 _ --0.9 _ --0.6 ___ +0.8 _ +1.1 _ --0.3 ______________________________________________________ Coldest forecasts in blue, Normal is coldest for NYC, BOS, PHX. Warmest forecasts in red, a check of the extreme forecast summary (Nov thread) shows that about half of our warmest forecasts also score highest (one tenth of coldest forecasts do so). Counting the losses in that table tells me that one tenth of second highest forecasts also score highest, so going high in general is 60% likely to produce a good score. Timing is everything though.

Good, I won't need to look at the old penalty time clock in this ultimate month of the contest ... snowfall contests duly noted here or over there in NOV, will get a table together for those soon. Could see some wild swings in temperature this month, I feel, generally mild but a few very cold days. +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.2 _ +2.8 _ +7.9 _ +3.5 _ +2.4 Good luck (I think the big battle is for second looking at these forecasts, nobody has enough differential on RodneyS to come anywhere near scoring 400 extra points which is what would be needed).

Predict the temperature anomalies in deg F for these nine locations (relative to 1981-2010) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... and check last month if you haven't already entered the winter snowfall contest (closes with this deadline).

That looks generally similar to winter 1975-76. I recall that one producing about two weeks of intense cold in the Great Lakes region (mid to late Jan) and record warmth by end of February. There was quite a long stretch of heavy mixed precip at the start of March (in southern/central ON at least, probably also in the Midwest U.S.). My thoughts for the winter are fairly similar by the way. I think it will be more about week to week variability than long-term trends, with the warming more pronounced towards end of February. Some part of January could be a brief east coast wintry spell but I can't see it dominating south of the lower Great Lakes. Great Lakes water temps must be well above average given the very warm November, similar to 1975. Then there was a spell of extremely heavy lake effect snow in Dec 1975 and Jan 1976, London ON had a state of emergency from huge snowdrifts created during this period. Good luck with this.

One half-decent storm and two thirds of the field are eliminated. I'll take those odds. Otherwise would this be three bad winters in a row? Seems harsh.

My main disagreement would be early in the winter for interior western regions, I suspect it will turn out a lot colder than shown. That would only have the effect of shifting your depicted warm core a bit further east to the mid-Atlantic states possibly (with more of an up and down regime in the central plains states). Otherwise I could certainly see the scenario of a relatively mild winter getting milder towards February. This may be one of those winters like 2015-16 with a lot of mild weather but one great winter storm anyway (for the east).

BWI _ too far north to miss ... 27.5" DCA _ too far east to miss ... 19.9" IAD _ too far west to miss ... 26.8" RIC _ too far south to miss ... 15.5" SBY _ too far southeast to snow (10.5" not my tiebreaker) LYH _ too far northwest to miss ... 30.1" (tiebreaker) conclusion _ not too shabby middle of the pack winter ahead.

I want to see Mu and Nu doing the Fujiwara.

I am expecting a rather broken up winter temperature regime with spells of very mild and very cold, some tendency towards a colder second half of winter relative to normal in eastern and central states, and the opposite for western interior regions. Some powerful storms seem very likely given that energy peaks are going to be unusually concentrated. It should be the sort of winter when it would be bad luck for any region to escape a major winter event at some point. It could be a very active lake effect snow season.

About the forest fire smoke situation -- 2017 was not that exceptional a year, we had a lot worse smoke in western Canada in 2018. Last year was fairly moderate and this year only became bad after mid-August. However, it has had a very noticeable effect on air mass temperature as it did in late August 2018. For several days where I am located, the uppers would have been good for 28-30 C each day but some days were as low as 20 to 23 C. As the smoke has thinned slightly yesterday and today we are back up to 24-25 C. But we're under a ridge with 570dm thickness. It should be 30 to 32 C here and 35 C in lower elevations of the inland Pac NW. The temperature anomaly is fairly widespread (meaning the temperature reduction due to smoke). I can see its signature into Alberta and Montana. The effects on subarctic temperatures could be significant too, if smoke layers advect north into the traditional source region for autumn arctic air outbreaks (NWT-w Nunavut). At those higher latitudes, solar angle becomes very low by late September and October, the influence of any particulates would be even more pronounced. On the other hand, pseudo-frontal boundaries created by these impacts could have ripple effects downstream, modelling that is not just a sketch on an envelope sort of proposition. It can also be noted that the weather in arctic Canada has not been unusually warm this past "summer" and August began the cooling cycle if anything a bit ahead of the recent average pace. This indicates prospects for a healthy arctic production of cold air masses through the autumn season. The trend in recent years has been for polar vortex positioning near Baffin Island and the Hudson strait region. When that expands to include large parts of Hudson Bay and Quebec, a cold regime can then extend well south of 40 deg latitude.

Except for 2005, a lot of the more active tropical seasons have been followed by cold winters in eastern NA. 1933 was second most active before this year, and the winter of 1933-34 was epic although punctuated by a ho-hum January. 1995 was a very active year, and 1969 at least had a cold winter although rather dry following on. The most active season before 1900 was 1887, say no more. However, 1936 and 2005 were not rewarded and more recent active seasons are part of the larger shift away from cold winters. So I'll just say that the tropical activity is by no means a red card situation for the winter prospects. The large amounts of forest fire smoke being generated over the interior west could be a factor assisting early cold regimes that are available even if they won't be directly created by the smoke layers. Temperatures in some places have dropped considerably under the thick smoke despite no real change in air mass. Those are some minor factors compared to teleconnections that most people would consult. I don't see anything too well-defined from the standard parameters. So I had a look at some research index values for any hints. What I found was that this should be a cold and snowy winter (in the eastern U.S. generally) with any luck. I suspect it would be a stop and go type of winter where you have to be patient and take limited opportunities, but one of them might click to produce a good snowfall event. So mark me down as mildly optimistic.

Will say 1492 and first high risk a major outbreak in the south-central states around Feb 8th-9th.

Oops, no tie-breaker. But I don;t foresee being tied so there you go. Not looking too bad on the long-range charts for an early end to frost-free season, question might be, would all four go at the same time? Takes a fairly potent cold shot to do that, I would assume, with DCA in such a warmed up location and RIC further south.

Given that voters in most countries are divided on their level of concern about climate change, I think the best political solution is to reshape the paradigm and take climate change out of the equation to some extent, focusing instead on benefits in general from alternative (non-fossil-fuel) energy sources. If there are demonstrable benefits from such a transition, then the climate change issue fades into the background. Another change in political emphasis should be towards mitigation of problems. Whether the alleged problems are caused by AGW, other forms of natural variability, or non-climate factors, these problems need to be addressed. For example, forest fires (or wildfires) are said to be increasing. Maybe they are, maybe not. But more to the point, an advanced society should be able to manage this problem. It is probably more cpmplex than just AGW forcing more fires. There are questions like changing lifestyles (the exurban population increasing rapidly), interface questions, and philosophies about fighting or containing fires. So that sort of climate-related issue can be approached as a self-contained problem that the climate is not a key factor in controlling, in fact it would make a lot of sense to have large changes in our management of the wildfire issue, regardless of what the climate is doing or not doing. To some extent, I think the climate "emergency" is overblown hype, those who peddle it for political gain seem to have no knowledge whatsoever of the range of past weather and climate events. There may be subtle changes as part of AGW, or what we see may be just inevitable natural variability. Either way, it's a safe bet that nothing we do will actually change the future weather observed on our planet by more than a very slight amount. So knowing that, we should have mitigation strategies in place, rather than dealing in these fantasies about paying a tax on carbon to change the weather. That simply isn't going to happen, no matter how many people say so with whatever level of urgency and passion.If the oceans begin to rise in a more dramatic fashion, what can be done about it? Plans must be drawn up for protection or even removal of critical infrastructure, and populations at risk, but only when it becomes apparent that there is no alternative. I don't say this to make denial a policy, I say it because it is the only rational approach. The political parties who deal in a tax-to-solve approach are just deluding themselves and their voters. Their plans cannot possibly work. Mitigation might include diversion of some ocean water into massive desalination/irrigation projects which are needed anyway for other reasons. This is what we should be doing, rather than taxing carbon.

All four very early 10/17 in massive wintry outbreak from Midwest.