Roger Smith

Perhaps obvious but there seems to be high potential for this outbreak to continue most of the night 4th-5th across IL, IN, w OH and s MI, pause slightly and redevelop in OH-KY-TN on Wed 5th..It doesn't look a lot different from 4-4-74 to me. (the dynamics with this one are somewhat further north)

Tom, I will go easy on the late penalty, in part because you weren't able to post in March. Best wishes and get well soon. Also welcome to rainsucks, and welcome back to Rhino16 and StormchaserChuck. Later in the year I will post pro-rated scoring comparisons to let you know how your average score looks in comparison to the field, although it partly depends on what months you enter, last month's average score was a bit lower than usual. Table of forecasts for April 2023 FORECASTER _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck1 _________________+3.6 _+3.8 _+3.9 __ +3.6 _+4.0 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________________ +2.6 _+2.1 _+2.2 __ +1.1 __ +2.8 _+3.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.3 _-2.3 wxdude64 ___________________________ +2.2 _+2.4 _+1.6 __ +0.7 _ +1.7 _+2.4 ___ +0.3 _ +0.6 _-1.7 wxallannj ____________________________ +2.2 _ +2.2 _+1.8 __ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +2.9 ___ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 Tom __________ (-2%) _________________ +2.1 _+1.1 _ +0.9 __ -1.1 __ +1.2 _ +0.8 ___ -1.1 __ -0.1 _ -1.1 RJay __________________________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _ +2.5 _+3.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _-2.0 Roger Smith __________________________+2.0 _+1.8 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +2.8 _ +3.3 __ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 ___ Consensus ________________________+2.0 _+1.5 _ +1.3 __ +1.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.1 __ -0.2 _ -0.1 _ -1.2 Rhino16 _______________________________+1.8 _+1.3 _ +1.3 __ +1.3 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ -0.1 __ -0.2 _ -1.4 BKViking _____________________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 __ +0.8 _+2.1 _ +2.1 ___ -0.4 _-0.6 _ +1.0 DonSutherland1 ______________________+1.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.3 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___ -0.3 _-1.5 _ -2.5 Scotty Lightning _____________________ +1.5 _ +1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 RodneyS _____________________________ +1.2 _ +1.1 _+0.7 __ -1.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.3 ___ -1.6 _ -1.3 _ -1.2 rainsucks ____________________________ +1.0 _+0.5 _-1.0 ___ -5.0_ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _ -2.0 ___ Normal _____________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 - - - - - - ___ Persistence _ (mar 2023) __________+1.5 _+1.8 _+2.5 ___-0.2 _+2.4 _+3.4 ___ -5.7 _-4.5 _-2.6 __________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (for forecasters). Normal is coldest for DCA, NYC, ATL, IAH.

I can add some details on that 1975 storm, which you are welcome to use tomorrow. I was living about 100 miles north of Toronto (which had over 10" of snow overnight 2nd-3rd) and we got an incredible dump of about 28 inches, would say the first half was synoptic scale and the second half was lake enhanced in NW winds off Georgian Bay. That was a fairly typical amount north of Toronto. Then the winds howled at 40-50 mph for two days and eventually the snow was reshaped into alternating bare spots and eight foot drifts all over the open countryside outside of larger towns. Many hundreds of people were stranded on regional highways during the storm, and ended up taking shelter in small towns around Barrie in Simcoe County, it was almost a week before some of them could get moving again, as the roads became totally impassable and plows couldn't get past the first mile or two of drifts. Where I lived, I was unable to move any of the snow drifts in my driveway because the daily freeze-thaw cycle in strong April sunshine ended up freezing them solid like concrete road barriers. There was about two weeks of quite cold and sunny weather with lows well below 20F at night, and this mess slowly evaporated away into the dry air. May of 1975 turned very hot and it stayed quite dry most of the summer in that region. It was certainly a weather singularity and in marked contrast to the 1974 super-tornado outbreak on 3rd-4th, and the early season heat in April of 1976 and 1977. You'll see there were some quite cold days at NYC after the storm, that was in part due to the strong NW winds blowing down off the extensive snow covered land. We were not breaking 25F in the daytime for the first few days after the storm, and eventually we were running about 15 degrees below normal for the month (it later relaxed a bit but still finished quite low). At Midhurst ON which is about thirty miles southwest of where I was located, the mean temperature for the first two weeks of April was -3.6 C (about 26 F) and normal there would be around 40F. They recorded 19" of snow in the blizzard, and over a week later there was a low of 8F there on the 11th of April.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-MAR 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Slight adjustments are likely for March scores. FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS RJay _______________________195 _192 _ 153 __ 540 __222 _187 _206__ 615 __1155 _ 155 _124 _238 __517 ____1670 DonSutherland1 ___________ 162 _120 _ 154 __ 436 __196 _204 _208 __608 __1044 __123 _194_220 __ 537 ____1581 wxallannj __________________ 155 _150 _183 __ 488 __ 199 _148 _212 __ 559 __1046 _ 123 _146 _ 188__ 457 ____1504 RodneyS __________________ 110 _ 118 _146 __ 374 __ 167 _ 87 _194 __ 448 __ 822 _ 221 _ 186 _254 __ 661____ 1483 hudsonvalley21 ____________135 _ 108 _ 173 __ 416 __206 _177 _187 __ 570 __ 986 __100 _142 _229 __ 471 ____ 1457 ___ Consensus _____________141 _ 128 _ 171 __ 440 __ 179 _126 _190 __ 495 __935 _ 127 _ 130 _236 __ 493 ____ 1428 wxdude64 _________________170 _ 139 _ 152 __ 461 __109 _124 _160 __ 393 __ 854 __ 165 _ 110 _208 __ 483 ____ 1337 BKViking __________________ 142 _ 134 _ 171 __ 447 __151 _112 _ 170 __ 433 __ 880 __ 109 _088 _ 168 __365 ____ 1245 Roger Smith _______________ 112 _ 104 _ 152 __ 368 __135 _ 95 _ 176 __ 406 __774 __ 111 _ 134 _222 __ 467 ____ 1241 Scotty Lightning ___________ 125 _124 _ 128 __ 377 __125 _107 _184 __ 416 __ 793 ___ 106 _ 46 _ 168 __ 330 ____ 1113 so_whats_happening (2/3) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _134 __ 276 __ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 _____ 928 Tom (2/3) __________________ 90 _ 75 _ 126 ___ 291 ___ 87 _ 52 _ 112 __ 251 __ 542 __ 118 _ 94 _ 146 __ 358 _____ 900 ___ Normal _________________ 70 __ 64 __88 __ 222 ___ 96 _ 52 _ 94 ___ 242 __ 464 __ 118 _ 098 _ 168 __ 384 _____848 Stormchaser Chuck (1/3) __ 87 _ 86 _ 32 ___ 205 ___ 93 _ 64 _ 86 ___ 243 __ 448 ___ 48 _ 84 __ 94 __ 226 _____ 674 Rhino16 (1/3) ______________ 54 _ 44 _ 30 ___ 128 ___ 68 _ 62 _ 24 ____ 154 __ 282 ___ 19 __ 04 __ 84 __ 107 ______389 _______________________________________________________ ___ Persistence ___________ 91 _ 84 _108 __ 283 __ 60 _ 85 _ 214 __ 359 __ 642 __ 88 _214 _128 ___ 430 ____1072 Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1* ___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 RodneyS ___________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0 hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (2/3) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (2/3) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 Stormchaser Chuck (1/3) __ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____1*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____1 _ Feb Rhino16 (1/3) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 25 of 27 forecasts qualify, 17 of them for warmest, and 8 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3 FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar __ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 ___ 9-1 _______7.5 - 1 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --___5-1 _______4.5 - 1 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 ___ 6-1 _______4.5 - 1 Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 ___ 3-1 _______ 3.0 - 1 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 3-0 _______ 3.0 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0__ 1-0 ________0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --___ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1 (all others) ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0 _______0.0 - 0 ===========================================

+2.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 __ +1.8 _ +2.8 _ +3.3 __ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -0.5

My understanding was that the NYC weather station was not in Central Park until 1920 or thereabouts, and was somewhere a few blocks southeast of the park in a more urbanized setting. That may account for the large number of high minima in the period 1896 to 1908 in particular when the numbers look a bit out of step with the overall temperature trends. The urban heat island is caused by retention of daytime heat as well as release of heat from within buildings (more of a factor in winter) and vehicle traffic (not likely to be significant before 1920). Possibly these very warm summer nights that show up in that era have some relation to the urban setting (as opposed to the park) and even back then the density of buildings must have retained quite a lot of daytime heat after hot, sunny days. While a lot of temperature trends are similar for Toronto (downtown) and NYC, I don't see this spike of record high minima in the same period; the results are closer to matching record high maxima. But the location of the Toronto downtown station has always been in a sort of park-like setting (a university campus) and has not changed much within half a mile of the instruments, even as the city has grown. That does have some effect as these parks are just relative cool spots within the wider urban heat islands, and won't be anywhere near as cool as similar sites outside the metropolitan area. Another factor to keep in mind would be sea breeze effects at JFK, a weak sea breeze might not penetrate the urban area as far inland as Central Park or even more southern portions of Manhattan (or Brooklyn-Queens) but it could easily get to the JFK location. A third point would be the random variability of temperatures in different locations during weather patterns with light winds. I found during some research as a student that you could find differences of 2-4 degrees within a few hundred feet in similar settings using calibrated instruments. It was simply a case of the air not mixing very efficiently, and in some cases the differentials could be quite large even closer together. The bottom line is there is no perfect location to capture the climate of any given region which would include a large city. Rainfall and snowfall variations of course are even more significant.

I hope to be able to post some evidence of natural variability cycles or at least effects if not periodic cycles, in April, once I get the graphs suitable for transfer to the internet. We have had quite a discussion here of different perceptions of the role of AGW, which is not really why this thread was created. I think we could either agree, or more likely agree to disagree, that some natural variability input into climate is currently interacting with the AGW signals, the question being, are those natural variations being overwhelmed, distorted, or do they hold their own and compete? I think a few people continue to think the entire climate variation we see today is from natural causes alone. I don't go that far and have always figured that what we see is a blend of human and natural signals. How they interact is an important question, but until we can identify what natural signals may exist, it would obviously be difficult if not impossible to discuss how they interact. My graphs will tend to demonstrate that the signals are basically just being warmed up and sometimes diluted but that they continue to exist. That in itself is interesting. Finding natural signals really tells us nothing about the likely future course of AGW, it could overwhelm all of them, or it could work through them, in other words, the worst of the warming influences could superimpose over top of what would have been the warmest times anyway (but not as warm? and by how much?). You'll find some of these cycles interesting, I hope. I get very busy at end of each month with contest management here and on two other weather forums, so I will get into this work after that comes and goes, maybe around April 6th and beyond. I don't have much of a workload otherwise, other than maintaining the data sets that I created years ago. Could I suggest in general that we've had a full enough (perhaps too much so) discussion of points of view on the AGW side of things, and let's try to reorient this thread to its original purpose, which I support, and see where that discussion leads us.

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1991-2020 averages) for these nine locations: DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA Contest deadline as always 06z Apr 1st, or late evening of March 31st. Good luck !!

In 1977, as discussed, the winter did relent its grip during February but even so, the month was quite average and finished 73rd warmest of the 155 to date (mean 33.5 F). March 1977 was warm and finished at 46.8 F which was the eleventh warmest of the 154 so far. April 1977 was warm at times and finished tied 36th warmest. May 1977 was a scorcher at times, except for that one brief cold shot where a trace of snow fell in NYC, and finished 24th warmest.

1869 should be tossed from that first list, there was no data for Aug-Dec 1868. Based on Toronto data though, it wasn't overly warm and 1868-69 might have made the top ten, July 1868 was a very hot month, I rank it second hottest July (to 1921) after urban heat island adjustments for Toronto.

Some guidance has been showing a cold end to March, so here are the coldest last three day periods of March in NYC climate history. They are ranked by average daily maximum to prevent the urban heat island from totally dominating the list. To get onto this list, there must be a maximum of 39F or lower on one of the three days, or if not, two below 42F, or failing that, all three must be 45F or lower. Only the top occasions with all three below 45F should be ranked, as some of the higher averages might not be the next coldest. Closest three non-qualifiers since 1985 (by average max) are included (1990, 2001, 2004). Only 2022 qualified under the rules used since 1984, and it was marginal in this list but March 28th-30th 2022 would have placed a more impressive tied for fifth coldest daytime average among these, and it set a new record low maximum of 33F on the 28th (29F is record low maximum for 29th). I also included 1893 for 28th-30th for the same reason, and it did not qualify for the 29th-31st list. Daily record values are in bold. YEAR ________ 29th max min __ 30th max min __ 31st max min ___ avg max, min ___ notes on any snowfalls etc 1887 __________ 29 __ 19 _______ 33 __ 16 ________ 40 __ 23 ________ 34.0 ___ 19.3 ____ 2.0" snow followed Apr 1-2 1923 __________ 32 __ 10 _______ 42 __ 30 ________ 34 __ 14 ________ 36.0 ___ 18.0 ____ also record low min Apr 1 (12F) 1883 __________ 37 __ 28 _______ 36 __ 28 ________ 39 __ 22 ________ 37.3 ___ 26.0 ____ 4.5" snow 30th 1919 __________ 31 __ 25 ________ 45 __ 27 ________ 38 __ 24 ________ 38.0 ___ 25.3 ____1.4" snow 28th, very cold Apr 1-2 (min 22 both) 1881 __________ 42 __ 35 _______ 38 __ 32 ________ 38 __ 31 ________ 39.3 ___ 32.7 ____ trace snow 31st (2022) 28-30 _ (33) _ 23 _______ 38 __ 24 ________ 47 __ 29 ________ 39.3 ___ 25.3 ____ see note above, last qualifier for 29th-31st 1890 __________ 41 __ 33 _______ 38 __ 31 ________ 40 __ 29 ________ 39.7 ___ 31.0 ____ 3.3" snow 30th-31st (2.8" on 31st) 1970 __________ 47 __ 27 _______ 37 __ 22 ________ 38 __ 33 ________ 40.7 ___ 27.3 ____ 4.0" snow 29th (1.07" prec) also 1.93" Apr 2nd 1974*__________ 34 __ 27 _______ 41 __ 32 ________ 47 __ 37 ________ 40.7 ___ 32.0 ____ 3.2" snow 29th (1.86" prec 29th-30th) (1893) 28-30 __ 34 __ 26 _______ 42 __ 22 _______ 49 __ 29 ________ 41.7 ___ 25.7 ____ see note above, non-qualifier 29th-31st 1900 __________ 41 __ 31 _______ 41 __ 34 ________ 43 __ 30 ________ 41.7 ___ 31.7 ____ 0.5" snow 31st 1965 __________ 40 __ 35 _______42 __ 31 ________ 43 __ 26 ________ 41.7 ___ 30.7 ____ trace snow 29th, 1.2" Apr 2nd 1915 __________ 43 __ 32 _______ 37 __ 21 ________ 46 __ 28 ________ 42.0 ___ 27.0 ____ 10.2" snow Apr 3rd-4th 1928 __________ 43 __ 34 _______ 40 __ 35 ________ 43 __ 30 ________ 42.0 ___ 33.0 ____ 1.02" rain 30th 1944 __________ 42 __ 35 _______ 39 __ 35 ________ 47 __ 34 ________ 42.7 ___ 34.7 ____ 0.67" rain 29th-30th, 6.5" snow Apr 5 1956 __________ 38 __ 34 _______ 46 __ 35 ________ 44 __ 35 ________ 42.7 ___ 34.7 ____ 4.2" snow Apr 8th 1877 __________ 32 __ 28 _______ 49 __ 31 ________ 48 __ 33 ________ 43.0 ___ 30.7 ____ followed 1.5" snow 28th 1889 __________ 52 __ 32 _______ 38 __ 25 ________ 39 __ 31 ________ 43.0 ___ 29.3 ____ 0.5" snow 30th 1964 __________ 52 __ 34 _______ 41 __ 29 ________ 38 __ 22 ________ 43.7 ___ 28.3 ____ 1942 __________ 39 __ 33 _______ 50 __ 33 ________ 44 __ 38 ________ 44.3 ___ 34.7 ____ 0.7" snow 29th-30th, 2.1" snow Apr 9th 1984 __________ 36 __ 34 _______ 44 __ 35 ________ 54 __ 35 ________ 44.7 ___ 34.7 ____ 3.3" snow (2.60" prec) 28th-29th** 1914 __________ 41 __ 34 _______ 39 __ 33 _________ 55 __ 38 ________ 45.0 ___ 35.0 ____ (2001) ________ 46 __ 36 _______ 43 __ 37 _________ 47 __ 38 ________ 45.3 ___ 37.0 ____ 2.16" rain 30th 1876 __________ 52 __ 35 _______ 39 __ 33 ________ 46 __ 33 ________ 45.7 ___ 33.7 ____ 2.37" rain followed 3rd-4th April 1880 __________ 38 __ 28 _______ 45 __ 33 ________ 54 __ 32 ________ 45.7 ___ 31.0 ____ 1884 __________ 60 __ 29 _______ 31 __ 21 _________ 47 __ 25 ________ 46.0 ___ 25.0 ____ 1922 __________ 64 __ 38 _______ 38 __ 32 ________ 37 __ 33 ________ 46.3 ___ 34.3 ____ 0.99" rain 30th-31st, traces snow 1885 __________ 40 __ 34 _______ 42 __ 30 ________ 58 __ 41 ________ 46.7 ___ 35.0 ____ 3.0" of snow 29th (1990) ________ 50 __ 37 ________ 41 __ 36 ________ 49 __ 37 ________ 46.7 ___ 36.7 ____ 0.86" rain 30th, traces snow (2004) ________ 51 __ 36 ________ 43 __ 34 _______ 46 __ 39 ________ 46.7 ___ 36.3 ____ 0.91" rain 31st into Apr 1st 1882 __________ 49 __ 32 _______ 54 __ 38 ________ 38 __ 31 ________ 47.0 ___ 33.7 ____ 0.5" snow Apr 10th 1941 __________ 46 __ 41 _______ 39 __ 28 ________ 58 __ 29 ________ 47.7 ___ 32.7 ____ 0.7" snow 29th-30th, a very warm April followed 1969 __________ 62 __ 38 _______ 45 __ 31 ________ 38 __ 28 ________ 48.3 ___ 32.3 ____ trace snow 30th 2022 __________ 38 __ 24 _______ 47 __ 29 ________ 66 __ 45 ________ 50.3 ___ 32.7 ____ see above (t5) for 28th-30th 2022 ____________________ also note (1924 Mar 31- Apr 2) 45/32 __ 36/27 __ 39/27 ___ 8.5" snow 1-2.) Even colder spells had just ended in 1885, 1888. The 23rd-27th 1888 cold spell: 20/14 _ 26/12 _ 34/16 _ 36/29 _ 42/34 In 1998 all three days broke 80 F and 1945 was nearly as warm, as were a number of other years including 1910, 1946, 1977 and 1986. * 1974 cold spell with snow was followed on Apr 3-4 by supertornado outbreak in Midwest, NYC reached 75F on Apr 4th. ** 1984 cold spell and heavy mixed precip event followed 4th-5th by 4.37" rain. ============================== General note: some of these cold spells are dry and are then followed by a week or two of relatively dry weather with a steady warming trend often noted, but many either produce cold rains mixed with snow, or are followed by such events within a week. Even if this cold spell fades out of the model guidance before we reach the interval, this forms an interesting study, and the lack of such cold spells in recent decades is notable. If we had used minimum rather than maximum temperatures, 2015 average was 32.0 with 25 on 29th, 2008 had an average minimum of 32.7 for the last three days of March, and 2011 was 34.7. These intervals had average daytime highs of 48 to 49 F.

Final scoring for March 2023 Scoring is based on confirmed monthly anomalies as shown in previous post. One point late penalty reductions * FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL DonSutherland1 ____________ 62 _ 28 _ 16 __ 106 ___ 98 _ 98 _ 52 __ 248 _ 354 __ 17 _ 62 _ 80 __ 159 ____ 513 Scotty Lightning ___________ 90 _ 84 _ 60 __234 __ 96 _ 72 _ 52 __ 220 _ 454 __ 00 _ 00 _ 48 __ 048 ____ 502 RJay ________________________40 _ 34 _ 20 ___094 __ 74 _ 52 _ 72 ___ 198 _ 292 __ 53 _ 40 _ 98__ 191 ____ 481 wxallannj ___________________ 60 _ 46 _ 26 __ 132 __ 84 _ 76 _ 62 ___ 222 _ 354 __ 13 _ 22 _ 88 __ 123 ____ 477 hudsonvalley21 __ (-1%) ____ 50 _ 14 _ 32 ___096 __ 97*_ 89*_ 57*__ 243 _ 339 __ 06 _ 38 _ 93*__ 137 ____ 476 wxdude64 __________________82 _ 56 _ 12 __ 150 __ 82 _ 74 _ 50 ___ 206 _ 356 __ 23 _ 02 _ 84 __ 109 ____ 465 RodneyS ___________________ 46 _ 36 _ 24 __ 106 __ 54 _ 40 _ 58 ___ 152 _ 258 __ 63 _ 46 _ 96 __ 205 ____ 463 ___ Consensus ______________52 _ 36 _ 24 __ 112 __ 78 _ 68 _ 56 ___ 202 __ 314 __ 17 _ 30 _ 86 __ 133 ____ 447 ___ ___ Normal ___ ___ _______ 70 _ 64 _ 50 __ 184 __ 96 _ 52 _ 32 ___180 _ 364 __ 00 _ 10 _ 48 __ 058 ____ 422 Rhino16 ____________________ 54 _ 44 _ 30 __ 128 __ 68 _ 62 _ 24 ___ 154 _ 282 __ 19 _ 04 _ 84 __ 107 _____ 389 BKViking ___________________ 34 _ 36 _ 26 __ 096 __ 68 _ 62 _ 62 ___ 192 _ 288 __ 17 _ 06 _ 44 __ 067 _____ 355 Roger Smith ________________ 30 _ 20 _ 14 __ 064 __ 56 _ 04 _ 00 ___ 060 _ 124 __ 13 _ 60 _ 74 __ 147 _____ 271 __________________ ___ Persistence _____________ 00 _ 32 _ 88 __ 120 __ 00 _ 00 _ 88 ___ 088 _ 208 __ 18 _ 66 _ 86 __ 170 _____ 378 EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Scotty Lightning wins DCA, NYC, BOS with warmest forecasts. ORD (-0.2) is a shared win for DonSutherland1 (-0.3) and hudsonvalley21 (-0.1), Scotty Lightning (0.0) and Normal take a loss. ATL (+2.4) is a win for DonSutherland1 (+2.5) with warmest forecast. IAH (+3.4) is a win for RJay (+2.0) with warmest forecast. DEN (-5.7) is a win for RodneyS (-3.5) with coldest forecast. PHX (-4.5) is a win for DonSutherland1 (-2.6) with coldest forecast. SEA (-2.6) is a win for RJay (-2.5) and a loss for DonSutherland1 (-3.6). __________________________________________

Think positive, it's not that the models are getting the weather wrong, it's the weather getting the models wrong. NYC would be at 50" if the weather would just follow the guidance.

March has been the coldest month of three winters, or perhaps more precisely stated, colder than all three winter months, in 1879-80, 1889-90 and 1959-60. To answer your question about a similar range of winter month temps and March, 2016-2017 had means of 38.3 in Dec, 38.0 in Jan, 41.6 in Feb and 39.2 in March. That is the narrowest range I could find in the data set in recent winters (for all four months) and it was second all-time; the all-time narrowest range was in 1871-72 (29.2, 28.8, 29.9, 30.5). However, 1868-69 might have been narrower, we don't have December 1868 but at other locations in eastern North America it was relatively cold, and the means for Jan to Mar were 35.1, 34.5, and 34.8.

Does anyone know if the 42" report from West Dover VT was final or accepted by NWS? My local seasonal pack maximum was on March 2nd, at 26" (down to 23" now) and it took all of a long winter season (started to snow here in late October) to get to that. We seldom get more than 10" in any given day but it keeps coming, did not rain much this winter, and thaw-melt has been rather minor, compaction of about 80-90 inches of total snowfall occurred all winter long and we were at 20" by mid-December, never changed much until a few snowy days in late February restored and then overcame previous peak of 24" in early February. So it took some people here all of yesterday to surpass my peak mountainside snow pack. Well done.

SLP 982.4 mb at buoy 44005 (78 east Portsmouth NH) 43.2N 69.1W) with N wind 25-35 knots falling off a bit past two hours, from that and radar would estimate low is 980 mb at about 42.7 N 68.7 W future track likely WSW, SSW, SE past Cape Cod. Won't get much closer to BOS than 70W maybe 69.7? Could deepen a few mbs to 977 mbs by 03z. GFS maybe had the loop but a bit too close to coast, but the longer and slower it loops, the more snow will accumulate in those bands.

ORH reports 11.7" snow storm total to 5:41 pm, 2.2" 13th and 9.5" 14th liquid was 0.54" + 1.51" for 2.05" ... some rain without snow so cannot give a ratio but would estimate 8:1 ------ BDL reports 4.4" snow storm total (Tr + 4.4") from a total of 1.93" (0.62+1.31). ------- BOS, PVD storm totals all rain so far. BOS is at 2.36" (0.34" 13th + 2.02" 14th) PVD is at 2.80" (1.05" 13th + 1.75" 14th) ---------- CON 1.52" liquid (0.30 + 1.22) snow report msg for 14th (0.0 13th) ... if all snow 14th at 8:1 that would be about 10" PWM 0.52" liquid (all today) snow report also msg for 14th ... 6-8" est -------------- BTV 9.0" snow from 0.93" liquid today (0.03" 13th gave trace snow). --------------- ALB 6.6" snow (0.5 + 6.1) from 1.52" liquid (0.37 + 1.15) PSF they don't report snow in climate reports but 1.30" liquid, at 10:1 that would be 13.0"

Low center is backing into Boston Bay from Gulf of Maine over next 4-6 hours so the entire storm is becoming steady state with a gradual cooling trend as the upper low captures the center (last spotted at 42.5N 67.8W). Potential for slightly better stickage in NYC metro as sun angle drops and colder air filters in. Maybe 1-2" in places. System won't clear out of region until after midnight.

Check my post in the storm thread with link to visible satellite, the center has started to make its loop, past hour motion is NW by 0.5 deg lat and long, from previous hour 42N 67W to about 42.5 67.5. It is also deepening, so would not say the "bombing out" scenario is entirely dead yet. Future positions in this loop may end up just 50 to 75 miles east of BOS before it drifts back east and away from MA. This evolution will probably allow coastal and parallel inland bands to maintain positions or drift very slowly towards the coast as colder air surrounds the stacking low at all levels. Probably 5-8" snow for BOS and 10-15" additional for some places already with snow on ground. Not sure if it helps much in e CT or any part of RI, se MA but 2-4" might be feasible in some places.

http://www.weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=goes&area=eusa&type=visible Center making the turn into a loop from 42N 67W, current direction NNW. From check of buoy reports, all in western Gulf of Maine have either steady or slowly falling temps, so capture must be imminent. Would expect coastal R-S line to retreat offshore north of Quincy MA and slow changes further south in se MA as colder surface layers begin to surround the approaching and looping low. Don't think it grazes the coast later, might just reach 70W offshore by 00z before drifting east again around 03z.

The GFS loop is a bit further off the MA coast, I think. That should move the R-S line to the coast. If there even is a loop, perhaps it just pushes slowly north, stalls 50e BOS and either micro-loops or drifts s.s.e. past Cape Cod.

Strangely, it does accurately depict the average MA weather enthusiast's state of mind.

My six-model weighted consensus is fairly optimistic for snow potential because it avoids the widest loops but also pulls in the most snow-unfriendly lingering lows in west. Even so I don't see much reason to go against consensus around here, just would say I am 2-4" on the positive side of some forecasts I've been reading. As for ORH and 33" that is logical if one assumes QPF of 3.3" and 10:1 all snow result, or 4.1" and 8:1. Probably all components of those are off, would say 3.0" 80% snow at 8:1 . And that boils down to a snowfall at ORH of 19.2" but my prediction is 15-18".

Big jackpots they're findin' where posters high fivin' north to New Hampshire, they're goin' north, the Euro zone.

Will speculate 2-4" most likely outcome for NYC metro, 4-8" lower Hudson valley, trending to 12-16" Albany. Mixed sleety falls to eventual all snow, might be only 50% effective at sticking in the urban heat island. About 1-2" in central Long Island unless they happen to catch some hefty NNW banding, then 3-5" possible. Will become quite windy, NNW 30-50 mph.