Roger Smith

Euro a bit more progressive at 00z and no storm near coast days 9-10 but cold signal remains, possibly just a jog in road to eventual snowfall event? 10-day Gem does bring in a potential snowfall of possibly 5-8" from an inland source rather than a coastal track. GFS so far not very promising. Lots of time for general improvements. Fingers crossed.

Don, I posted (as PeterOD) on your X file, "did not know they had X in 1888." But that map could actually bust in the other direction where it shows zero snow in NC and s.e. VA. Well, the DCA new record of 80 or 81 would of course have to park over top of the second highest temp of record in Jan (79 on same date in 1950) instead of blowing away some useless nondescript record. I hate when that happens. And it does happen ... ... So I took a look in my NYC files, this is the "top 15" of snubbed records that deserve a spot: __ Robbed of a Record Top 15 __ Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ July 21, 1930, 1980 t1991 broken or denied by 1977 (104F) t1. ___ (17.5/20) ___ Nov 15, 1973 (77F) broken by 1993 (80F) 3. ___ (16.5/20) __ Dec 4 1982 (72) lost record to 74F in 1998. 4. ___ (15.5/20) ___ Sep 21, 1914 (94) denied by 1895 (95F). 5. ___ (15/20) ____ Feb 16, 2023 (70) denied by 1954 (71F). 6. ___ (14.5/20) __ Aug 9, 1949 (100) broken by 2001 (103F). t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 17 1976 (91) lost record to 96F in 2002. t7 ___ (14/20) ___ Apr 18 2002 (91) denied by 96F in 1976. 9. ___ (13.5/20) __Nov 1, 1974 (81) denied by 84F in 1950. t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 7 1929 (89) lost record to 92F in 2010. t10 ___ (13/20) ___ Apr 8 1929 (88) lost record to 90F in 1991. 12. ___ (12.83/20) ___ Feb 15, 1954 (69) denied by 1949 (73F) 13. ___ (12.67/20) ___ Jan 14, 2005 (66F) was not a record (70F 1932). 14. ___ (11.67/20) ___ Jan 12, 2017 (66F) lost out to 70F in 2020. 15. ___ (11.5/20) ____ Aug 27, 1953/73 (98F) denied by 1948 (100F) The list will be checked in future, there are numerous cases just outside this top 15 in the 9-11 range. (List is objectively generated by considering how many days among the 20 on either side of the lost or unclaimed record the "snubbed record" would be a daily record -- that is the meaning of the number in brackets. A tie is counted by its decimal equivalent (0.5 or 0.33) as a tie created by its inclusion. The weakest records by number broken within ten days either side are: Weakest daily records Rank __ Days (/20) __ Details 1. ___ (0/20) ___ 56F Feb 7, 2020 (lowest daily record) 2. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Dec 19, 1899 t1931 is second lowest daily record (tied with case below) 3. ___ (0/20) ___ 58F Jan 15, 1995 is tied second lowest daily record (tied with above case) 4. ___ (0/20) ___ 88F May 14, 1900 is lowest since May 1, 2001 (87F). 5. ___ (0/20) ___ 93F June 12, 1933, 1973, 2017 is lowest after 92F for May 18. 6. ___ (0/20) ___ 92F Aug 23, 1916, lower than all records until tie Sep 15th, 91F Sep 18th. t7. ___(0.5/20) ___ 65F Mar 3, 1991 lowest after Feb 14 (62F). Tied 65F Feb 26, 1890 (t7) 9. ___ (1/20) ___ 59F Feb 2, 1988 would only beat #1 above. 10. ___ (1/20) ___ 60F Jan 10, 1876 would only beat #3 above. 11. ___ (1/20) ___ 96F June 28, 1969, 1991 (beats only 95F June 18) 12. ___ (1/20) ___ 71F Nov 17, 1953 (beats only 67F on Nov 26) 13. ___ (1/20) ___ 67F Nov 26, 1946 (beats only 66F on Dec 2, 1970) Quite a few records score 1.5 or 2.0 in this regard. It should be noted that "shoulder season" records are at a disadvantage as seasonal averages fall or rise. Even so, a few of these have entered the list.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Feb 1st. (late Wednesday evening in EST)

I don't currently see the potential for snow as depicted except over VT and west of river as boundary layer will be 35-40 F with rain over e ma, RI and CT almost to end of precip. Looking at PA now, still 45-50 F in that portion of circulation, not in warm sector but between fronts, and cold air is so far north in Canada and high just doesn't have any ability to push lower dewpoints into moisture band staying so far north. You know I'm going to predict as much snow as possible in any given situation but I am not keen on this one. Yes it will finish off with 2-4" in places. But it's going to keep raining longer than some of the guidance would suggest. (unless the guidance is basically wrong about thermals). No idea why some models are showing as much snow as they do. I hope I am wrong and you get a good snowfall. It could be 6-10 inches in a few higher spots in s VT and w ma. Would go with 0.50" to 1.00" rain and 2-4" snow at end of storm event otherwise, Tr to 2" in se ma and coastal CT-RI, Long Island. maine and nh could see a little better results, 3-6" but even so, rain to start. The danger sign is that 534-540 dm thickness ribbon on RGEm is way too far north to support a good snowfall event.

I recall before the larger storm 5th-7th in Feb 2010 there was 7-10 in of snow around Jan 30-31; before that it had been mild with rain around Jan 26th. Then there was a third snowfall event around Feb 10th.

Euro opened door to a polar vortex dropping south after Feb 2-3 and GFS explores possibility of a long-duration snowfall event, will be interesting to track how this develops as it looks like quite a pattern changer on GFS. As to the first event, needs better phasing with distant cold high to work out well but at least it's something.

It looks like Blizzard of 78 except it doesn't get locked into place for two days. But even a 50% outcome of '78 would be quite a good storm. GFS continues to suggest caution but seems to be going against the herd. Good luck !

Weather has turned nasty here, 42F and rain, gradual snow melt is turning our formerly ideal cover to waterlogged slush (still over 18" base). Foggy and mild like the coast basically. Not wanted or needed around here.

Just a few questions about MJO ... (a) is it always progressive, I see it stalls out occasionally but does it ever retrogress significantly? (b) if it goes all around the earth's tropical zone, what is its average period? (c) what is the variability of said period? (looked it up, says 30-60d, no average given) (d) does it track enhanced convection or is it more complicated than that? In my research I am tracking all sorts of weak progressive and retrograde mid-latitude signals of various periods; they are only significant at a very low level in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 F deg, not really all that useful for forecasting but interesting nonetheless. So I am trying to figure out what (if any) research signals would correspond to MJO. Off topic but in 1967, today's high 68, low 54 at NYC.

Also, records were being set for warmth around this part of January, 1967, (68F on 24th) and pattern flipped with the "Chicago blizzard" storm of Jan 26-27. After that it turned very cold. In my recollection, warmth spreading as far east as Regina is not badly correlated with cold weather in the n.e. US, if it gets as far east as Winnipeg to Grand Forks ND then it's more likely to go zonally coast to coast. All depends on the amplitude of the upper ridge near 110W which is very likely to be there as a basic cause of any western Canada warmings. The chinook zone normally ends between Regina and Swift Current SK but really strong chinook warmings can push close enough that temps go to the low 40s (F) in Regina and Estevan. Chinook warmings in southern Alberta can be well into the 60s F and the record in Feb is 72F. I think that was in 1954 which produced a very mild Feb in eastern Canada and the n.e. US as well. So for February, I would say a lot depends on amplitude of what seems to be inevitably a strong ridge forming near the Rockies to west coast. If that ridge is flat-topped and lows continually feed in across Yukon and NWT towards n SK and central manitoba then it will be coast-to-coast warm. If the ridge pushes into the subarctic it will set up a pipeline of cold air from eastern/central Canadian arctic across hudson bay, Quebec and Ontario into the n.e. US. The Pacific lows are forced to go north into Alaska and die out over western arctic islands, or else come back south but as leading cold fronts for super cold outbreaks.

A repeat of 1-23-2016 (obviously not on 1-23-2024) would work almost perfectly for AtlanticWx or psuhoffman. One or two modest KU events in Feb and march plus 2-4 other events would work well for quite a few.

Friday's storm went on to do a number on Ireland today, widespread wind damage, many trees down all over, and gusts to 80 kts on west coast. It is now a 947 mb low n.w. of Scotland. Named Isha by UK and Ireland met services.

Friday's storm went on to do a number on Ireland today, widespread wind damage, many trees down all over, and gusts to 80 kts on west coast. It is now a 947 mb low n.w. of Scotland. Named Isha by UK and Ireland met services.

Looks good, around my part of world we call it November.

I A NOT CO UNICATING ARDLY AT ALL WIT SO E ERE WILL AVE TO UP Y GA E. or fix my keyboard.

Jan 1967 followed similar pattern, quite mild start, some cold and snow mid-month, record warm around Jan 23-26, then followed by about seven weeks of cold and occasional snow lasting well into march. Not saying it will be record mild at any point but years that did set records in period Jan 21 to 31 include 1906, 1909, 1914, 1916, and 1967 all of which had significant cold and snow later. It was quite mild in late Jan 1993 to about Feb 3rd as well.

I think what people were looking for as an IVT was actually the secondary arctic front wrapping around the combined exploding coastal and this trailing inland low which did in fact act like a slider. Wind directions at altitude range from NE at surface to N at 925, NW around 700 mbs to WSW above 500 mbs, so the secondary front is tending to rotate around the southern low and it has a shape somewhat similar to an IVT. What I mean is, no IVT will appear, this secondary arctic front will slowly pull southeast and eventually be offshore, any further snow after frontal band still in progress will be from convective showers in bands streaming through lower gaps in topography to west. This storm has actually played out about like it did here on a 33% scale, except we have higher hills to our west which tended to block out a few squalls that formed off still-open Lake Okanagan. We just cleared out within an hour after snow ended here. After nearly two days of clear skies, getting a very light top up of about 1-2" but I can't direct this one towards you, sorry. After snow on snow it will be cold on cold, to mid-day monday at least. GFS showed one good snow signal on Jan 28th. Pattern will reload, I believe, in mid-Feb.

OPE YOU DONT EAN E (da n keyboard)

You had a great run.

NATIONAL WEAT ER SERVICE URGENT ESSAGE: If anyone has (a) a keyboard with all CAPS working and, (b) a snow ruler larger than 3" total capacity, PLEASE DROP OFF AT DCA. T ANKS IN ADVANCE.

I assume "worst case" at NWS means "best case" at American Weather Forum ?

Western low I was discussing yesterday has become a remnant wave (1014 mbs) located in s/c NE and is still producing a swath of 3-5 in snowfalls in n NE, se SD; these will translate into IA-n mo, then IL-IN-KY quite rapidly, as wave is embedded in 120 kt mid-level jet stream. Feature is in transition to become a slider low that will be merging with weak energy tracking e.n.e. across TN towards sw VA. models have adjusted to reality of best moisture availability as I suspected could be the case given trajectory of western feeder moisture ID into WY last night. Think the 2-4 inch forecasts are solid now, and 4-6 is upper end of what this situation can accomplish, except where orographic uplift yields 6-8. No similarity whatsoever to Feb 1979 storm which exploded off the coast and was interacting with a 1050 mb frigid high near BTV and e ON, sQC. This present situation will create a powerful Atlantic low but that will be racing away Friday night towards central Atlantic Ocean and eventually Ireland by Sunday. The 1979 event on Feb 19 was trapped under the much larger arctic high and deepened rapidly off Long Island. So no real relation at all. Will speculate on totals near 3" for BWI, DCA and IAD trending to near 4.5 to 6.0" on md-pa border. Watch progress of plains states wave into IA-IL to see if it is overperforming; I expect similar totals for a narrow band through those states by 03z. If we happen to see 5-8 in amounts it could be a sign of similar outcome in PA-md-DE-sNJ but I am not expecting to see 5-8 from the level of degradation of wave observed to 18z -- worst case scenario of total disappearance was averted, but system went from an 8 or 8.5 to a 3 on energy level scale. It appears capable of regaining some intensity to around 4/10 by 12z.

When I saw how NAm was handling pressure, popping out a low over VA, I expected snowfall zone to be shifting south further, and it looks odd to have the streak of snow in montana and SD when the storm has shifted towards southeast ID and into WY. It would make more sense to depict snow in NE, s IA, c IL, IN and then KY, WV and VA. Let's see what GFS does in response to what I would expect to be much better sampling of western low's dynamics now that it has been over land for nearly 24h. Skies cleared out here with a measured 17.5" of dry powder, I don't do core samples but it shovels easily so I would guess perhaps 0.60" to 0.80" liquid. No wind so it just settles slowly. Would keep an eye on snow reports later today from places in NE and IA into central IL-IN, if you see 2-4" amounts it may be a sign the fast-paced low is keeping some organization and could redevelop by evening in Ohio, nKY, WV.

First and last call: anyone getting an inch out of this will be super lucky. It's all at my place. I could drop some off just call 1-800-GOT-SNOW. Seriously, I hope it works out better, if only this departing low (now near Yellowstone Park) wasn't being sheared to bits by terrain, and forced to compete for space on Thursday with an arctic high, and it could just glide across the central plains states to VA, then I would say 5-8 inches easy. And it could almost work out that way, a surface circulation may not necessarily always be in evidence, but if the vorticity stayed intact and could trigger a low in KY or WV by late tomorrow, that is a route to getting 3-5 inches at least. But I have a feeling the GFS is correct and it will be a weak norlun feature into Ohio, giving PA-NJ-NYC 1-2" and your region Tr to 1.0" in general (agree on 4-6 west of Blue Ridge). Fingers crossed this plucky little storm can find a way across the hostile arid plains. I did so there's that.

The warmer interval still has some colder days in the mix and very cold air masses tracking southeast into New England and eastern Canada. Any small variations in 7-10 day outcomes from model guidance could bring significant errors in predictions with this tight gradient developing. It looks like several cases of mild air sauntering along oblivious to the presence of predator cold air and I don't totally trust model guidance in such situations, it could bust either way -- the cold could be modelled too aggressively, or the cold could push back harder. Snow has now covered most of the previously bare ground in central regions and more snow is coming there. I suspect there will be two more significant cold and snow intervals, one each in Feb and march.