Roger Smith

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-MAY 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS RJay _______________________313 _324 _ 335 __ 972 __396 _325 _284__ 1005 __1977 _295 _296 _384 __975 ____2952 DonSutherland1 ___________ 288 _264 _ 314 __ 866 __316 _350 _344 __1010 __1876 __275 _296_382 __ 953 ____2829 hudsonvalley21 ____________271 _270 _ 335 __ 876 __356 _313 _293 __ 962 __1838 __292 _316 _359 __ 967 ____2805 wxallannj __________________ 297 _302 _ 321 __ 920 __ 369 _304 _322__ 995 __1915 _ 285 _318 _274 __877 ____ 2792 ___ Consensus _____________273 _274 _ 325 __872 __329 _282 _303 __ 914 __1786 _ 305 _ 302 _360 __967 ____2753 wxdude64 _________________300 _303 _312 __ 915 __253 _296 _260 __ 809 __1724 __333 _246 _342 __ 921 ____2645 RodneyS __________________ 254 _254 _278 __ 786 __ 195 _269 _318 __ 782 __1568 _ 367 _ 288 _340 __ 995____ 2573 BKViking ___________________276 _272 _303 __ 851 __293 _262 _287 __ 842 __1693 __287 _248 _240 __ 775 ____ 2468 Roger Smith _______________ 268 _226 _264 __ 758 __241 _209 _274 __ 724 __1482 __ 275 _248 _374 __ 897 ____2379 Scotty Lightning ___________213 _236 _290 __ 739 __289 _235 _270 __ 794 __1533 __266 _234 _254 __ 754 ____ 2287 Tom (4/5) __________________225 _230 _247 __ 702 __176 _228 _270 __ 674 __1376 __276 _262 _267 __ 805 _____2181 ___ Normal _________________ 148 _ 176 _210 __534 __ 220 _228 _242 __ 690 __1224 __278 _250 _244 __772 ____ 1996 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886 Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 174 _174 _200 ___ 548 ___220 _228 _150 ___ 598 __1146 __183 _144 _202 __ 529 ____ 1675 so_whats_happening (2/5) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _ 134 ___ 276 ___ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 ____ 928 rainsucks (1/5) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 _______________________________________________________ Persistence ________________143 _154 _292 __ 589 ___ 212 _219 _290 __ 721 __1310 __148 _ 310 _ 224 __ 682 ____1992 Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2*___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May (t) wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May (t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS ___________________1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0 BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (4/5) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (2/5) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/5) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 38 of 45 forecasts qualify, 25 of them for warmest, and 13 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2 ... 10 of 35 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those ten are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May ____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0___ 10-1 _______9.5 - 1 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0___ 9-3 _______8.5 - 3 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 7-1 _______ 6.5 - 1 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____ 5-0 _______ 5.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 ___ 3-2 _______ 3.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*___ 3-1 _______2.5 - 0.5 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 ___ 3-0 _______2.0 - 0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0____ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* ___ 1-2 ______ 0.5 - 1.0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - ___ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 0-0 ______ 0.0 - 0 ===========================================

Predict the temperature anomaly (F deg) for these nine locations, relative to their 1991-2020 averages: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and also add on your forecasts for their highest summer maximum readings (annual). Deadline 06z June 1st, with small late penalties (summer maximum contest will close mid-June if anyone wanted to enter later)

28.42" of rain fell at one location in Guam. GFS continues to stall Mawar east of Taiwan, but latest track across N Pac is closer to Gulf of Alaska.

If the GFS is correct, Mawar tracks west towards Luzon and stalls east of Taiwan around 29th, then is caught up in the subtropical jet and moves all the way across the Pacific around 35-40N to slam into the west coast of the U.S. by about June 8-10. That would dump a lot of subtropical heat into the circulation and might be a signal of a very hot spell in the central and eastern U.S. by mid June.

Will go with 19/12/4. Lots of entries, thanks for entering. Edit at your pleasure until I post a notice of final call for forecasts around June 1st to 3rd depending on situation. If I have not posted the notice, I have not copied your forecast (have been reading them). So no need to post a notice of edit.

My location is approx 200-300 miles south of the fires in n BC and n/c Alberta. We had some smoke here during the recent hot spell but now that the flow is more south to southwest (and cool/wet today) our air quality has improved. For several days Edmonton Alberta has had "dangerous" air quality readings like we had here in summer 2021 after the heat dome and lightning caused fires in our region. Some rain is now falling on some of the fires so the volume of smoke being generated should gradually decrease. A lot of these fires are a long way from any human habitation and are being contained rather than actively suppressed due to their vast extent but some closer to Edmonton are more of a direct threat to settlements. After a very cold March and first half of April, as soon as your weather turned cooler ours became very warm and the anomaly has been in the +6F range since about April 20th. We had readings near 90F for several days last week. Normal around here in mid-May is about 65F. Today it is only 52F with clouds scudding over after a steady rain ended. This is the first really cool day we have had since the change of pattern.

Final scoring for May 2023 Scoring is based on the end-of-month anomalies in the previous post. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL ___ Consensus _________________ 70 _ 94 _ 72 __ 236 __ 70 _ 92 _ 88 __ 250 __ 486 __ 82 _ 96 _ 56 __ 234 __ 720 wxallannj _______________________ 76 _ 86 _ 46 __ 208 __ 74 _ 92 _ 94 __ 260 __ 468 __ 90 _ 80 _ 62 __ 232 __ 700 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 62 _ 98 _ 62 __ 222 __ 68 _ 86 _ 98 __ 252 __ 474 __ 96 _ 90 _ 40 __ 226 __ 700 Tom ____________________________ 72 _ 92 _ 48 __ 212 __ 52 _ 96 _ 98 __ 246 __ 458 __ 82 _ 94 _ 56 __ 232 __ 690 BKViking ________________________78 _ 86 _ 50 __ 214 __ 66 _ 86 _ 92 __ 244 __ 458 __ 86 _ 96 _ 48 __ 230 __ 688 Rhino16 ________________________ 62 _ 82 _ 88 __ 232 __ 66 _ 96 _ 84 __ 246 __ 478 __ 66 _ 66 _ 46 __ 178 __ 656 wxdude64 _____________________ 64 _ 94 _ 72 __ 230 __ 70 _100 _ 80 __ 250 __ 480 __ 74 _ 46 _ 56 __ 176 __ 656 DonSutherland1 ________________ 72 _ 92 _ 80 __ 244 __ 54 _ 84 _ 94 __ 232 __ 476 __ 58 _ 54 _ 68 __ 180 __ 656 RJay ___________________________ 56 _ 70 _ 86 __ 212 __ 84 _ 82 _ 66 __ 232 __ 444 __ 60 _ 74 _ 62 __ 196 __ 640 StormchaserChuck1 ___________ 20 _ 54 _ 98 __ 172 __ 96 _ 42 _ 56 __ 194 __ 366 __100 _ 86 _ 80 __266 __ 632 Scotty Lightning _______________ 36 _ 70 _ 86 __ 192 __ 84 _ 52 _ 56 __ 192 __ 384 __ 80 _ 96 _ 52 __ 228 __ 612 ___ Normal _____________________ 56 _ 90 _ 66 __ 212 __ 64 _ 82 _ 86 __ 232 __ 444 __ 60 _ 74 _ 32 __ 166 __ 610 Roger Smith ____________________94 _ 64 _ 26 ___ 184 __ 10 _ 64 _ 94 __ 168 __ 352 __ 80 _ 56 _ 98 __234 __ 586 RodneyS _______________________ 98 _ 92 _ 62 __ 252 __ 00 _ 84 _ 70 __ 154 __ 406 __ 78 _ 50 _ 18 ___ 146 __ 552 - - - - - ___ Persistence _________________ 00 _ 12 _ 90 __ 102 __ 96 _ 76 _ 76 __ 248 __ 350 __ 60 _ 96 _ 00 __ 156 __ 506 _________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (-2.2) a win for RodneyS (-2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (-2.5). NYC, ATL, DEN, PHX no extreme forecasts. IAH (-0.7) a win for Hudsonvalley21 and Tom (-0.6) and a loss for wxallannj and Roger Smith (-1.0). BOS (+1.7) and ORD (+1.8) StormchaserChuck wins with warmest forecasts. SEA (+3.4) is a win for Roger Smith (+3.5). =======================================

I would be surprised if it fell and nobody mentioned it (unless I missed seeing it) but the NYC record low for May 18th is one of the more recent (1973 41F) and was followed by a daily max of 59 F but the record low maximum was 53F in 1881, the second consecutive low max (17th was 52F and tied in 1915). Those occurred just five and six days after a record high max in 1881 of 93 (May 12) and I think this may be the fastest such turnaround with another similar one in early October of 1881 (88F Sep 28 and record low max 50F min 35F Oct 5th). The opposite sequence (record low max to high max) took only three days in June 1952 (62 22nd, 99 25th). Since the 41F on May 18, 1973, the lowest minimum at NYC was 42F in 1976 with 43F in 1983, 2002 (46F 2003).

Apparently its status is un-named subtropical storm. Let's say for clarity we will count it and assume they include it in the count so we will go with a current value of 1/0/0 for your predictions. If there is some clarification of this before contest closes, I will certainly give people the option of adjusting their forecasts by 1. For now, assume the official count will start at 1/0/0 before named storms are added. I will post some "expert" forecast values before the contest closes to entries. So far they look a bit lower than many recent seasons (CSU is 13, 6, 2). TWC is at 15, 7, 3.

Same format as previous years, simply predict the number of * named storms * hurricanes * major hurricanes Will close off entries around June 1st depending on how many entries we have and status of outlooks at that time. Please note, contest will include any storms named before June 4th (deadline adjusted to 06z June 5, 2023). Also note, count is 1/0/0 as of now, a system in January has been re-classified as an un-named tropical storm. Your forecast should include that one.

Updates on anomalies and projections: __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _11th ___ (10d anom) _____ -4.4 _ -2.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.5 _ -1.4 _ -0.5 ___ +5.0 _ -1.6 _ +0.4 _21st ___ (20d anom) _____-2.1 _ -0.1 _ +2.9 __ +1.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.2 ___ +1.8 _ +1.3 _ +5.2 _11th ___ (p20d anom) ___ -2.0 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 _11th ___ (p27d anom) ___ -1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +3.0 _21st ___ (p31d anom) ___ -0.5 _ +0.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.5 _27th ___ (p31 anom) ____ -1.0 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +4.0 _31st ____ (final anoms) __ -2.2 _ -0.5 _ +1.7 __ +1.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.7 ___ +2.0 _ +1.3 _ +3.4 _________________________________________ 11th _ Rather close to average so far, with a very warm period setting in over western regions. Projections otherwise are not far from normal. 21st _ A subdued warmth is predicted for rest of the month, went with +1 to +2 anomalies for all locations 21st to 31st to complete the month. Some preliminary scoring will follow. No further snowfall has occurred and the contest standings in the April thread will probably be the final report, but will keep an eye on DEN projections to early June when their season ends. 27th _ Slight changes to projections will result in adjustments to scoring estimates below. 31st - 1st __ Final anomalies now all posted, scoring adjusted.

Table of forecasts for May 2023 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck1 ___________ +1.8 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4 Scotty Lightning ________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 RJay ____________________________ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 ___ Normal _______________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Rhino16 _________________________-0.3 _ +0.4 _+1.1 __ +0.1 __-1.1 __+0.1 ___ +0.3 _ -0.4 _ +0.7 hudsonvalley21 _________________ -0.3 _ -0.4 _-0.2 __ +0.2 _ -0.2 _ -0.6 __ +1.8 _ +1.8 _ +0.4 wxdude64 ______________________-0.6 _ -0.2 _ +0.3 __ +0.3 _-0.9 _ +0.3 __ +0.7 _ -1.4 _ +1.2 ___ Consensus __________________ -0.7 _ -0.2 _ +0.3 __ +0.2 _ -0.5 _ -0.1 __ +1.1 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 DonSutherland1 _________________-0.8 _ -0.1 _ +0.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.7 _ -0.4 ___ -0.1 _ -1.0 _ +1.8 Tom _____________________________-0.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.9 __ -0.6 _ -0.7 _ -0.6 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 wxallannj ________________________-1.0 _ -1.2 _ -1.0 __ +0.5 _ -0.5 _ -1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.5 BKViking ________________________-1.1 __ -1.2 _ -0.8 __ +0.1 _ -0.2 _ -0.3 ___ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 RodneyS _______________________ -2.1 __ -0.9 _ -0.2 __ -3.9 _ -1.7 _ +1.2 ___ +0.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.7 Roger Smith ____________________-2.5 _ -2.3 __ -2.0 __ -2.7 _ -2.7 _ -1.0 ___ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 --- --- Persistence __ (Apr 2023) _____________ 3.9 _+3.9 _+2.2 ______ +2.0 _+0.3 _-1.9 ________ 0.0 _+1.1 _-2.8 _________________________________________________ Color codes for high and low forecasts.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-APR 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Slight adjustments are likely for March scores. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS RJay _______________________257 _254 _ 249 __ 760 __312 _243 _218__ 773 __1533 _ 235 _222 _322 __779 ____2312 DonSutherland1 ___________ 216 _172 _ 234 __ 622 __262 _266 _250 __778 __1400 __217 _242_314 __ 773 ____2173 hudsonvalley21 ____________209 _ 172 _ 273 __ 654 __288 _227 _195 __ 710 __1364 __196 _226 _319 __741 ____2105 wxallannj __________________ 221 _ 216 _ 275 __ 712 __ 295 _212 _228 __735 __1447 _ 195 _238 _ 212__ 645 ____2092 ___ Consensus _____________203 _180 _ 253 __636 __259 _190 _215 __ 664 __1300 _ 223 _ 206 _304 __733 ____2033 RodneyS __________________ 156 _ 162 _216 __ 534 __ 195 _185 _248 __ 628 __1162 _ 289 _ 238 _322 __ 849____2011 wxdude64 _________________236 _ 209 _ 240 __ 685 __183 _196 _180 __ 559 __1244 __259 _200 _286 __ 745____1989 Roger Smith _______________ 174 _ 162 _ 238 __ 574 __231 _145 _ 180 __ 556 __1130 __ 195 _192 _276 __ 663 ____1793 BKViking __________________ 198 _ 186 _ 253 __ 637 __227 _176 _ 195 __ 598 __1235 __ 201 _154 _ 192 __547 ____1782 Scotty Lightning ___________ 177 _166 _ 204 __ 547 __205 _183 _214 __ 602 __ 1149 __ 186 _138 _202 __ 526 ____1675 Tom (3/4) __________________153 _138 _ 199 ___ 490 __124 _132 _ 172 __ 428 __ 918 __ 194 _168 _ 211 __ 573 _____1491 ___ Normal _________________ 92 __ 86 _144 __ 322 ___156 _146 _156 ___ 458 __ 780 __ 218 _ 176 _ 212 __ 606 ____1386 Stormchaser Chuck (2/4) __181 _184 _ 98 ___ 463 ___161 _ 90 _ 90 ___ 341 __ 804 ___ 138 _154 __158 __ 450 ____1254 Rhino16 (2/4) ______________112 _ 92 _112 ___ 316 ___154 _132 _ 66 ____ 352 __ 668 ___117 __ 78 __156 __ 351 ____ 1019 so_whats_happening (2/4) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _ 134 __ 276 __ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 _____ 928 rainsucks (1/4) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ___ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 _______________________________________________________ Persistence ________________143 _142 _202 __ 487 ___ 116 _143 _214 __ 473 __ 960 ___ 88 _ 214 _ 224 __ 526 ____1486 Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2*___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____0 wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 RodneyS ___________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0 wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 _ Apr Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (3/4) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 Stormchaser Chuck (2/4) __2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____1*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____1 _ Feb Rhino16 (2/4) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (2/4) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/4) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 33 of 36 forecasts qualify, 22 of them for warmest, and 11 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3 ... 8 of 33 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. One of those eight is a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0____ 10-1 _______8.0 - 1 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 ____ 7-3 _______6.5 - 3 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 ____ 7-1 _______ 5.5 - 1 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _____ 4-0 _______ 4.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* ____ 3-2 _______ 3.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 ____ 2-0 _______1.5 - 0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 ____ 2-0 _______1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _____ 1-0 ______ 1.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* ___ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 0.5 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- ____ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 ____ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 (all others) ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _____ 0-0 ______ 0.0 - 0 ===========================================

April 2023 made it all the way to 7th place ... Update at end of day, 2.32" in total, month ends 7th wettest April. Currently 20 wettest Aprils are: 1. __ 14.01" 1983 2. __ 13.05" 2007 3. ___ 8.77" 1874 4. ___ 8.26" 1980 5. ___ 8.05" 1973 6. ___ 7.85" 2014 7. ___ 7.70" 2023 8. ___ 7.05" 1988 t9. ___ 6.62" 1901, 1984 11. ___ 6.33" 1996 12. ___ 6.27" 1913 13. ___ 6.14" 1958 14. ___ 6.13" 1909 15. ___ 6.05" 1924 t16. ___ 5.90" 1906, 1987 18. ____ 5.85" 1929 19. ____ 5.78" 2018 20. ____ 5.67" 1982 _______________________________ All this after an essentially dry spell 2nd to 20th. Although the monthly summary is not available yet, adding the daily climate 60/50 temps gives totals of 1987 1469 and averages of 66.2 49.0 57.6 F so 2010 (57.9) held on and this was the second warmest April (now confirmed). 2017 now falls to third (57.2).

-2.5 _ -2.3 _ -2.0 __ -2.7 _ -2.7 _ -1.0 __ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.5

After a very dry first twenty days, the month is approaching 6 inches as of the 4:40 pm report at NYC, and has already passed all but sixteen of 154 Aprils with potential to pass about six more before midnight. Update at end of day, 2.32" in total, month ends 7th wettest April. Currently 20 wettest Aprils are: 1. __ 14.01" 1983 2. __ 13.05" 2007 3. ___ 8.77" 1874 4. ___ 8.26" 1980 5. ___ 8.05" 1973 6. ___ 7.85" 2014 7. ___ 7.70" 2023 8. ___ 7.05" 1988 t9. ___ 6.62" 1901, 1984 11. ___ 6.33" 1996 12. ___ 6.27" 1913 13. ___ 6.14" 1958 14. ___ 6.13" 1909 15. ___ 6.05" 1924 t16. ___ 5.90" 1906, 1987 18. ____ 5.85" 1929 19. ____ 5.78" 2018 20. ____ 5.67" 1982 _______________________________ All this after an essentially dry spell 2nd to 20th. The weekly total 23rd to 29th was 4.30" breaking a record from 1889. About 1.5" inches today would be required to break the 24th to 30th record from 2014 but most of that fell on the 30th so more than 4" would have to fall today to break the daily record. Yesterday's total of 2.46" eliminated one of two sub-1.0" records from 1909. That leaves September 9th as the only day of the year with a record rainfall of less than 1.0" (0.86" 1902).

Reminder to usual suspects to enter May temperature forecast contest in the general weather forum. Admirals also welcome.

Looks like you may break a rainfall record on Saturday 29th, it is an easy one to break (0.91" from 1909). The recent 1.51" on the 23rd failed to break that daily record (2.34" 2006). The April 29th record is one of only two daily records all year that are below 1.00" the other one being 0.86" for September 9th (1902). It would be neat if 2023 could eliminate both of them. The third lowest value is 1.02" for June 8th (1900). The Sunday record is a lot higher, Apr 30th 2014 had 4.97" of rain. Today's record is 2.74" from 1980.

Predict temperature anomalies for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAh _ DEN _ PhX _ SEA relative to 1991-2020 normals. Deadline 06z Monday, May 1st. Good luck !

To answer the question several had asked, May at NYC has never been colder than its previous April. The (15) closest calls are: YEAR ____APR __MAY ___incr 1945 ____55.6 __ 59.2 ___ 3.6 2005 ____55.1 __ 58.9 ___ 3.8 2017 ____57.2 __ 61.1 ____ 3.9 1915 _____54.4 __ 59.0 ___4.6 1968 _____55.0 __ 59.6 ___4.6 2002 ____ 56.1 __ 60.7 ___4.6 1921 _____56.1 __ 61.2 ___ 5.1 1976 ____ 55.0 __ 60.2 ___ 5.2 2008 ____ 54.9 __ 60.1 ___ 5.2 1967 ____49.6 __ 55.2 ___ 5.6 1952 ____55.0 __ 60.7 ___ 5.7 1974 ____55.2 __ 61.0 ___ 5.8 1910 _____55.1 __ 61.0 ___ 5.9 1917 _____48.4 __ 54.3 ___5.9 1954 _____53.8 __ 59.8 ___6.0 ________________________________________ May 1967 was only 0.2 warmer than April 1968 and was 0.7 colder than April 1969. May 1917 was 0.1 colder than April 1915. and 1.8 colder than April 1921. Those are the only two cases where May was colder than any April within two years.

Final scoring for April 2023 Scores based on latest provisional end of month anomalies posted above. Late penalties not applied yet. ^ scored by "max 60" rank order scoring (IAH). Normal given raw score of 62. * scores adjusted for late penalty of 2% FORECASTER _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxdude64 ___________________________ 66 _ 70 _ 88 __ 224 __ 74 _ 72 _ 20^ __ 166 __ 390 __ 94 _ 90 _ 78 __ 262 ____ 652 hudsonvalley21 ______________________ 74 _ 64 _100 __ 238 __ 82 _ 50 _ 08^__ 140 __ 378 __ 96 _ 84 _ 90 __ 270 ____ 648 RJay _________________________________ 62 _ 62 _ 96 __ 220 __ 90 _ 56 _ 12^ __ 158 __ 378 __ 80 _ 98 _ 84 __ 262 ____ 640 Rhino16 _______________________________58 _ 48 _ 82 __ 188 __ 86 _ 70 _ 42^__ 198 __ 386 __ 98 _ 74 _ 72 __ 244 ____ 630 ___ Consensus ________________________62 _ 52 _ 82 __ 196 __ 80 _ 64 _ 25^__ 169 __ 365 __ 96 _ 76 _ 68 __ 240 ____ 605 DonSutherland1 ______________________ 54 _ 52 _ 80 __ 186 __ 66 _ 62 _ 42^__ 170 __ 356 __ 94 _ 48 _ 94 __ 236 ____ 592 Tom __________ (-2%) _________________63* _63*_ 73*__199 __ 37*_ 80*_ 60^ __ 177 __ 376 __ 76*_ 74*_ 65*__215 ____ 591 wxallannj ____________________________ 66 _ 66 _ 92 __ 224 __ 96 _ 64 _ 16^ __ 176 __ 400 __ 72 _ 92 _ 24 __ 188 ____ 588 StormchaserChuck1 _________________ 94 _ 98 _ 66 __ 258 __ 68 _ 26 _ 04^__ 098 __ 356 __ 90 _ 70 _ 64 __ 224 ____ 580 Scotty Lightning ______________________52 _ 42 _ 76 __ 170 __ 80 _ 76 _ 30^__ 186 __ 356 __ 80 _ 92 _ 34 __ 206 ____ 562 Roger Smith __________________________62 _ 58 _ 86 __ 206 __ 96 _ 50 _ 04^__ 150 __ 356 __ 84 _ 58 _ 54 __ 196 ____ 552 Normal ________________________________22 _ 22 _ 56 __ 100 __ 60 _ 94 _ 62 __ 216 __ 316 __100 _ 78 _ 44 __ 222 ____ 538 BKViking ______________________________56 _ 52 _ 82 __ 190 __ 76 _ 64 _ 25^__ 165 __ 355 __ 92 _ 66 _ 24 __ 182 ____ 537 RodneyS ______________________________46 _ 44 _ 70 __ 160 __ 28 _ 98 _ 54^__ 180 __ 340 __ 68 _ 52 _ 68 __ 188 ____ 528 rainsucks _____________________________ 42 _ 32 _ 36 __ 110 __ 00 _ 66 _ 48^__ 114 __ 224 __ 50 _ 98 _ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 - - - - - - ___ Persistence ________________________52 _ 58 _ 94 __ 204 __ 56 _ 58 _ 00 __ 114 __ 318 __ 00 _ 00 _ 96 __ 096 ____ 414 __________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report DCA (+3.9) NYC (+3.9) are wins for StormchaserChuck with warmest forecasts (+3.6, +3.8) BOS (+2.2) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.2) and a loss for Stormchaser Chuck (+3.9) ORD (+2.0) is a shared win for wxallannj (+2.2) and Roger Smith (+1.8) and a loss for Stormchaser Chuck (+3.6). PHX (+1.1) is a win for RJay and rainsucks (both +1.0), and loss for wxallannj and Scotty Lightning (both +1.5). DEN outcome (0.0) was close to consensus and does not qualify. ATL (+0.3), IAH (-1.9) and SEA (-2.8) wins for RodneyS, Tom, and DonSutherland1 on coldest forecasts, Normal also wins for IAH. ================================================

Comparing the means for April 1-16 of other years, I find that 2023 is in second place to 2010: YEAR ____ Mean 1-16 ___ Mean APR ____ Rank 2010 _____ 60.4 ________ 57.9 _______________ 1 2023 _____ 59.9 ________ ?? ?? ______________ ?? 1945 _____ 57.7 ________ 55.6 ______________ t-10 1991 _____ 56.4 ________ 55.7 _______________ t-8 1981 _____ 56.2 ________ 56.2 _______________ 4 2017 _____ 55.9 ________ 57.2 _______________ 2 2006 _____ 54.9 ________ 55.7 ______________ t-8 2012 _____ 54.8 ________ 54.8 ______________ 21 1980 _____ 54.7 ________ 54.5 _____________ t-23 2002 _____ 54.7 ________ 57.9 ______________ t-5 1968 _____ 54.6 ________ 55.0 _____________ t-17 1921 _____ 54.4 ________ 56.1 _______________ t-5 1941 _____ 53.8 ________ 56.9 ______________ 3 1969 _____ 53.8 ________ 55.9 ______________ 7 1910 _____ 53.7 ________ 55.1 ______________ t-15 2019 _____ 53.7 ________ 55.5 _____________ t-12 1955 _____ 53.6 ________ 53.5 _____________ t-40 1999 _____ 53.3 ________ 53.5 _____________ t-40 2022 _____ 53.3 ________ 52.8 _____________ 54 2014 _____ 52.9 ________ 52.3 _____________ t-57 2021 _____ 52.8 ________ 54.6 ______________22 2005 _____ 52.6 ________ 55.1 _____________ t-15 1959 _____ 52.5 ________ 53.8 _____________ t-32 1994 _____ 52.5 ________ 55.6 _____________ t-10 1922 _____ 52.4 ________ 51.5 _____________ 73 1949 _____ 52.4 ________ 53.8 _____________ t-32 2015 _____ 52.3 ________ 54.3 _____________ t-27 1871 _____ 52.2 ________ 52.0 _____________ t-65 1998 _____ 52.1 ________ 54.0 _____________ 31 1963 _____ 52.0 ________ 53.7 _____________ t-36 ____________________________________ The list includes all 1-16 values higher than 52.0, end of April ranks not included were cooler than 52.5 at this stage. Rounding out the top 20 Aprils not in the list, t-12 1985 (55.5) was 50.0, 14th 1974 (55.1) was 50.8, t-17 1952 (55.0) was 50.6, t-17 1976 (55.0) was 49.5, and 20th 2008 (54.9) was 51.5. 1977 (53.5) finished t-36 and was 50.7 after 16 days despite the record highs.

One answer to question(s) about consecutive above normal months ... this table shows 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages as well as all monthly averages. I have highlighted all above normal months (1991-2020 normals) in bold and those which were only above 1981-2010 normals in bold italics (e.g. Jan 1894). Any underlined value is on the average value (e.g. Jan 1924 is on the 1981-2010 average). This establishes the longest stretches of above normal monthly temperatures. Analysis follows the table. YEAR ___JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN __ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC __ YEAR 1869 ___ 1.72 _ 1.39 _ 1.56 __9.56 _14.28 _20.72 _22.67 _ 22.11 _ 18.67 _10.50 _ 4.61 _ 1.50 __ 10.78 1870 ___ 3.06 _-0.39 _ 1.17 _10.39 _16.06 _22.72 _24.78 _24.06 _19.78 _13.72 _ 7.50 _ 1.17 __ 12.00 1871 ___-2.06 _-1.00 _ 6.78 _11.11 _15.78 _ 20.11 _ 22.39 _ 23.11 _ 16.00 _13.11 _ 3.78 _-1.56 __ 10.61 1872 ___-1.78 _-1.17 _-0.83 __9.67 _16.39 _21.78 _25.28 _24.22 _19.11 _11.78 _ 5.00 _-2.94 __ 10.56 1873 ___-1.89 _-1.39 _ 2.06 __8.17 _14.89 _21.28 _24.11 _ 22.22 _18.56 _13.22 _ 2.78 _ 2.50 __ 10.56 1874 ___ 1.22 _-0.39 _ 2.83 __5.06 _14.89 _21.17 _23.28 _21.28 _19.44 _12.83 _ 6.33 _ 1.00 __ 10.72 1875 ___-4.56 _-3.78 _ 1.17 __6.17 _15.61 _ 20.67 _23.33 _22.72 _17.78 _12.00 _ 4.06 _ 1.06 ___ 9.67 1876 ___ 2.56 _-0.11 _ 1.33 __8.33 _15.67 _23.06 _26.33 _24.00 _17.61 _10.33 _ 7.33 _-3.94 __ 11.06 1877 ___-2.39 _ 2.78 _ 2.11 __8.72 _15.33 _21.22 _23.89 _ 24.11 _ 19.39 _13.22 _ 6.94 _ 3.00 __ 11.56 1878 ___-0.94 _ 0.11 _ 6.72 _11.83 _15.22 _19.83 _25.44 _23.44 _20.17 _14.83 _ 6.56 _ 0.44 __ 12.00 1879 ___-2.83 _-2.22 _ 4.44 __9.11 _17.39 _21.22 _23.89 _22.22 _17.39 _ 15.72 _ 6.33 _ 2.94 __ 11.28 1880 ___ 4.00 _ 2.89 _ 2.50 _10.00 _19.94 _22.83 _23.83 _22.61 _19.50 _12.00 _3.72 _-3.06 __ 11.72 1881 ___-4.06 _-1.83 _ 2.61 __ 7.94 _16.83 _ 18.44 _23.17 _23.22 _23.00 _14.89 _ 7.33 _ 4.11 __ 11.33 1882 ___-1.78 _ 1.78 _ 4.67 __ 8.67 _13.67 _ 22.11 _24.33 _23.00 _19.50 _ 13.94 _ 4.00 _-0.78 __ 11.11 1883 ___-3.78 _-1.00 _ 0.39 __8.39 _16.17 _23.33 _23.61 _21.33 _ 17.00 _ 11.22 _ 6.50 __ 0.00 _ 10.28 1884 ___-4.06 _ 1.11 __ 3.17 __8.94 _15.44 _21.83 _22.17 _23.17 _ 22.22 _14.28 _ 6.83 _ 0.89 __ 11.33 1885 ___-1.44 _-5.17 _-0.78__9.67 _15.50 _21.67 _25.83 _22.44 _18.00 _ 12.28 _ 7.17 _ 2.06 __ 10.61 1886 ___-2.89 _-2.50 _ 3.11 _11.61 _15.67 _ 20.00 _23.78 _21.22 _18.50 _ 12.72 _ 7.00 _-1.33 __ 10.56 1887 ___-1.61 __ 0.00 _ 0.17 __7.94 _17.67 _20.89 _25.67 _21.11 _16.56 _ 11.22 _ 5.22 _ 1.00 __ 10.50 1888 ___-5.00 _-1.50 _-1.11 __7.78 _14.44 _ 21.61 _ 21.50 _22.56 _17.11 __9.22 _ 7.50 _ 1.50 ___ 9.61 1889 ___ 2.06 _-2.33 _ 4.28 _10.67 _17.50 _21.39 _22.89 _21.44 _18.44 _9.83 _ 7.06 _ 4.44 __ 11.50 1890 ___ 3.11 _ 3.28 _ 2.00 __9.50 _15.72 _ 21.17 _ 22.83 _22.61 _19.50 _12.50 _ 6.61 _-1.17 __ 11.50 1891 ___ 1.00 _ 2.50 _ 2.11 __9.83 _14.33 _21.89 _ 22.44 _24.17 _22.00 _12.61 _ 6.83 _ 5.72 __ 12.11 1892 ___-0.28 _ 0.78 _ 1.22 __9.33 _15.11 _23.06 _23.83 _23.50 _18.17 _ 11.67 _ 6.33 _ 0.11 __ 11.06 1893 ___-4.61 _-1.44 _ 1.94 __8.00 _14.56 _20.06 _23.11 _23.06 _17.39 _ 13.44 _ 6.06 _ 1.39 __ 10.22 1894 ___ 0.89 _-1.89 _ 6.00 __9.56 _16.06 _21.33 _23.89 _21.44 _20.44 _12.94 _ 5.28 _ 2.67 __ 11.56 1895 ___-1.22 _-4.39 _ 1.89 _ 10.06 _16.94 _22.72 _22.56 _24.22 _21.61 _11.39 _ 8.78 _ 3.39 __11.50 1896 ___-1.22 _-0.06 _ 0.33 _ 11.28 _19.44 _21.00 _24.89 _24.50 _19.61 _12.17 _ 9.94 _ 1.22 __ 11.94 1897 ___-0.67 _ 0.67 _ 4.89 _ 10.28 _16.39 _ 19.72 _24.39 _22.89 _19.44 _13.67 _ 7.78 _ 3.50 __ 11.89 1898 ___ 1.83 _ 2.11 _ 7.56 __ 8.72 _ 14.67 _ 21.78 _ 24.50 _24.06 _21.28 _15.28 _ 7.56 _ 1.44 __ 12.56 1899 ___-0.33 _-2.28 _ 3.28 _ 9.72 _16.83 _23.39 _24.56 _24.00 _ 18.94 _14.78 _ 7.78 _ 3.44 __ 12.00 1900 ___-0.11 _-0.94 _ 0.78 _ 10.00 _15.33 _21.39 _ 24.67 _24.56 _21.39 _16.28 _ 9.50 _ 2.39 __ 12.11 1901 ___ 0.28 _-3.17 _ 3.56 __ 8.78 _ 14.11 _ 21.44 _25.39 _23.89 _20.11 _ 13.28 _ 4.28 _ 2.06 __ 11.17 1902 ___-0.78 _-1.28 _ 6.89 _ 10.33 _14.94 _19.33 _22.67 _22.17 _ 19.28 _ 14.56 _10.89_ 0.28 __ 11.61 1903 ___-0.89 _ 0.67 _ 8.78 _ 11.11 _ 17.11 _ 17.89 _23.67 _ 20.61 _ 19.44 _ 14.44 _ 5.67 _-0.28 __ 11.50 1904 ___-3.72 _-3.67 _ 2.44 __ 8.11 _17.44 _21.22 _23.67 _22.78 _ 19.33 _ 12.11 __ 5.78 _ -0.94 __ 10.39 1905 ___-1.50 _-4.00 _ 4.67 __ 9.94 _16.39 _21.06 _25.06 _23.50 _20.89 _15.22 _ 6.72 _ 3.83 __ 11.83 1906 ___ 3.56 _ 0.44 _ 2.00 _ 10.89 _17.28 _23.11 _25.06 _25.06 _21.17 _ 14.17 __ 7.50 _ 1.22 __ 12.61 1907 ___ 1.61 _-3.39 _ 5.83 __ 8.17 _ 13.44 _20.33 _25.22 _23.00 _19.39 _ 11.50 _ 7.89 _ 3.78 __ 11.39 1908 ___ 0.83 _-2.50 _ 5.22 _ 11.22 _17.44 _22.78 _26.56 _24.33 _20.33 _16.00 _ 8.22 _ 3.11 __ 12.78 1909 ___ 1.50 _ 3.17 _ 3.22 __ 9.11 _ 16.11 _ 22.28 _ 23.06 _ 22.33 _19.33 _ 12.50 _ 9.72 _ 0.22 __ 11.89 1910 ___-0.50 _-1.11 _ 6.11 _ 12.83 _ 16.11 _20.39 _ 25.11 _ 22.22 _ 20.78 _ 14.89 _ 5.72 _-1.11 __ 11.78 1911 ___ 2.39 _-0.39 _ 1.50 __ 8.78 _17.83 _21.00 _ 25.33 _22.67 _19.78 _ 13.44 _ 5.94 _ 4.11 __ 11.89 1912 ___-4.61 _-1.78 _ 3.11 _ 10.22 _16.83 _ 20.94 _24.28 _22.06 _ 19.22 _ 15.11 _ 8.78 _ 4.06 __ 11.50 1913 ___ 4.89 _-0.39 _ 7.11 _ 11.39 _15.94 _ 21.39 _24.50 _23.00 _ 18.11 _ 14.78 _ 8.50 _ 3.72 __ 12.78 1914 ___-0.28 _-3.67 _ 2.50 __ 8.83 _18.06 _20.50 _22.28 _23.67 _19.39 _15.22 _ 6.94 _-0.22 __ 11.11 1915 ___ 1.39 _ 2.17 _ 2.67 _ 12.44 _ 15.00 _20.00 _23.28 _22.00 _21.11 _ 14.28 _ 7.94 _ 0.83 __ 11.94 1916 ___ 2.22 _-2.28 _ 0.22 __ 9.11 _ 16.33 _18.72 _24.11 _ 23.78 _ 19.67 _ 14.28 _ 7.50 _ 1.11 ___ 11.22 1917 ___ 0.50 _-2.06 _ 4.06 __ 9.11 _12.39 _21.28 _24.39 _24.56 _ 17.56 _ 11.67 _ 5.33 _-3.89 __ 10.39 1918 ___-5.72 _-0.89 _ 5.61 _ 10.39 _18.50 _19.89 _23.67 _24.72 _ 17.72 _15.00 _ 8.11 _ 4.11 __ 11.78 1919 ___ 2.00 _ 1.61 _ 6.28 _ 10.00 _16.67 _21.61 _ 23.94 _21.72 _ 19.78 _ 15.11 _ 7.33 _-1.00 __ 12.11 1920 ___-4.78 _-1.94 _ 4.39 __ 8.94 _14.89 _20.67 _23.22 _23.50 _20.28 _16.17 _ 6.89 _ 2.94 __ 11.28 1921 ___ 0.78 __ 1.11 _ 9.11 _ 13.39 _16.22 _21.78 _ 25.17 _ 22.00 _22.28 _13.50 _ 7.06 _ 0.28 __ 12.72 1922 ___-2.11 _ 0.89 _ 5.00 _ 10.83 _18.11 _22.11 _ 23.17 _ 22.44 _ 20.11 _ 14.56 _ 7.61 _ 0.89 __ 11.94 1923 ___-1.11 _-3.22 _ 2.67 _10.17 _15.56 _23.00 _23.22 _ 22.56 _20.17 _ 13.33 _ 7.33 _ 5.56 __ 11.61 1924 ___ 0.39 _-1.72 _ 4.00 __ 9.50 _14.06 _19.89 _23.39 _23.50 _17.83 _ 13.94 _ 6.89 _ 1.11 __ 11.06 1925 ___-2.00 _ 3.28 _ 6.78 _ 11.00 _15.33 _23.50 _23.11 _22.94 _20.44 _10.33 _ 6.61 _ 1.56 __ 11.89 1926 ___ 0.00 _-1.56 _ 2.06 __ 8.50 _15.61 _ 19.33 _23.94 _23.33 _18.72 _ 12.83 _ 7.17 _-1.72 __ 10.67 1927 ___-0.61 _ 2.44 _ 6.11 __ 9.22 _15.00 _ 19.61 _23.33 _20.28 _19.94 _ 15.33 _ 9.56 _ 2.61 __ 11.89 1928 ___ 1.11 __ 0.56 _ 3.78 __ 9.11 _15.22 _ 19.67 _24.39 _ 24.11 _ 18.17 _ 14.94 _ 8.56 _ 4.06 __ 12.00 1929 ___-0.06 _ 0.50 _ 7.28 _ 10.56 _16.50 _21.94 _24.39 _22.83 _20.78 _12.56 _ 7.89 _ 2.11 __ 12.28 1930 ___ 0.72 _ 2.78 _ 4.61 __ 9.11 _ 17.61 _23.06 _24.67 _23.11 _22.22 _ 13.11 _ 7.50 _ 1.44 __ 12.50 1931 ___ 0.44 _ 1.06 _ 4.61 _ 10.61 _16.39 _ 21.50 _25.28 _24.00 _22.39 _16.28 _11.06_ 5.00 __ 13.22 1932 ___ 6.22 _ 2.28 _ 2.94 __ 9.44 _16.67 _21.39 _24.50 _24.83 _20.83 _14.72 _ 6.61 _ 3.94 __ 12.89 1933 ___ 4.61 _ 1.17 _ 3.56 _ 10.22 _18.00 _22.44 _24.33 _23.83 _20.89 _13.39 _ 5.44 _ 0.39 __ 12.33 1934 ___ 1.50 _-6.72 _ 2.94 _ 10.17 _17.61 _23.22 _25.39 _22.22 _20.67 _12.50 _ 9.39 _ 0.78 __ 11.67 1935 ___-1.72 _-0.44 _ 6.33 __ 9.89 _15.50 _21.17 _25.11 _ 23.72 _ 18.50 _ 14.17 _ 9.22 _-1.11 __ 11.72 1936 ___-1.50 _-3.50 _ 7.33 __ 8.83 _18.00 _21.00 _24.56 _24.11 _20.11 _ 14.22 _ 5.94 _ 3.67 __ 11.89 1937 ___ 4.56 _ 1.56 _ 2.50 __ 9.78 _17.89 _22.11 _ 24.78 _ 24.78 _18.89 _13.00 _ 8.00 _ 1.89 __ 12.50 1938 ___ 0.06 _ 1.89 _ 6.78 _ 12.06 _16.00 _21.28 _24.78 _ 25.67 _18.89 _15.44 _ 9.06 _ 2.78 __ 12.89 1939 ___ 0.11 _ 2.78 _ 4.00 __ 9.06 _18.28 _22.78 _24.78 _ 25.61 _20.33 _14.06 _ 6.50 _ 2.72 __ 12.61 1940 ___-3.89 _ 0.50 _ 1.72 __ 8.22 _15.94 _21.33 _ 24.56 _ 21.89 _ 19.22 _ 12.11 _ 7.39 _ 3.56 __ 11.06 1941 ___-1.44 _-0.50 _ 2.17 _ 13.83 _18.22 _22.17 _24.33 _23.33 _21.11 _ 15.94 _10.00_ 3.50 __ 12.72 1942 ___-0.72 _-1.28 _ 6.11 _ 12.11 _18.50 _ 21.67 _24.61 _ 23.11 _ 20.17 _ 14.89 _ 8.33 _-0.50 __ 12.28 1943 ___-0.67 _ 1.44 _ 4.56 __ 7.83 _17.00 _24.56 _24.94 _24.39 _19.67 _13.17 _ 7.44 __ 0.56 __ 12.06 1944 ___ 1.06 _ 0.67 _ 3.11 __ 9.39 _19.44 _22.39 _26.33 _25.44 _21.17 _13.94 _ 7.78 _ 0.22 __ 12.56 1945 ___-3.83 _ 1.06 _10.61_ 13.11 _15.11 _ 21.61 _ 23.67 _ 23.00 _ 21.28 _13.44 _ 8.67 _-0.56 __ 12.28 1946 ___ 1.17 _-0.17 __ 9.89 _ 10.22 _16.61 _20.94 _24.11 _21.61 _ 21.00 _ 16.50 _10.28_ 3.28 __ 12.94 1947 ___ 2.89 _-1.50 _ 3.22 _ 10.28 _15.50 _20.22 _24.17 _24.44 _20.33 _17.56 _ 6.78 _ 1.11 ___ 12.11 1948 ___-3.67 _-0.72 _ 5.61 _ 10.56 _15.67 _20.78 _25.11 _ 24.00 _21.28 _13.72 _11.33_ 3.50 __ 12.28 1949 ___ 3.67 _ 3.67 _ 6.06 _ 12.11 _17.28 _23.50 _26.44 _24.83 _19.00 _17.28 _ 7.94 _ 4.11 __ 13.83 1950 ___ 5.22 _-0.22 _ 2.44 __ 9.17 _14.89 _21.28 _ 23.89 _ 22.83 _ 18.22 _15.56 _ 9.11 _ 1.67 __ 12.00 1951 ___ 2.50 _ 2.33 _ 5.28 _ 11.67 _17.39 _21.00 _24.89 _ 23.61 _20.11 _ 14.78 _ 6.39 _ 3.67 __ 12.78 1952 ___ 2.33 _ 2.33 _ 4.56 _ 12.78 _15.94 _23.11 _26.83 _23.83 _21.06 _13.17 _ 9.22 _ 3.56 __ 13.22 1953 ___ 3.11 _ 3.56 _ 6.33 _ 11.28 _17.44 _ 23.11 _25.44 _24.33 _21.33 _15.94 _ 9.83 _ 5.17 __ 13.89 1954 ___-0.67 _4.50 _ 5.33 _ 12.11 _15.44 _ 22.00 _24.83 _22.67 _19.67 _16.50 _ 8.00 _ 2.17 __ 12.72 1955 ___-0.56 _1.67 _ 5.39 _ 11.94 _18.56 _ 20.50 _27.17 _ 25.61 _ 19.89 _15.44 _ 6.83 _-1.28 __ 12.61 1956 ___ 0.00 _ 2.56 _ 3.00 _ 9.00 _14.83 _ 21.89 _ 22.72 _23.44 _18.22 _ 14.50 _ 8.17 _ 4.94 __ 11.94 1957 ___-1.94 _ 2.94 _ 5.50 _ 11.78 _17.28 _23.50 _25.39 _23.11 _20.94 _13.44 _ 9.67 _ 4.56 __ 13.00 1958 ___-0.06 _-2.56 _ 4.61 _ 11.61 _15.06 _ 19.56 _24.50 _24.00 _ 19.78 _13.06 _ 8.83 _-1.44 __ 11.39 1959 ___-0.50 _ 0.06 _ 4.50 _ 12.11 _19.11 _ 21.78 _24.61 _ 25.28 _22.39 _15.44 _ 7.67 _ 3.56 __ 13.00 1960 ___ 1.06 _ 2.39 _ 0.72 _ 12.28 _17.00 _22.11 _23.67 _23.83 _20.00 _14.50 _ 9.83 _-0.61 __ 12.22 1961 ___-2.39 _ 2.61 _ 5.28 __ 9.44 _15.50 _22.39 _25.61 _24.67 _23.11 _ 16.17 _ 9.33 _ 1.94 __ 12.83 1962 ___ 0.33 _-0.11 _ 6.17 _ 11.83 _18.06 _22.50 _23.33 _22.44 _18.28 _ 14.11 _ 6.22 _-0.28 __ 11.89 1963 ___-1.06 _-2.06 _ 6.50 _ 12.06 _16.17 _21.61 _24.67 _22.28 _ 17.28 _ 16.56 _10.22_-0.44 __ 12.00 1964 ___ 2.06 _ 0.50 _ 6.17 __ 9.83 _18.56 _22.00 _24.11 _22.72 _19.56 _ 12.78 _ 9.67 _ 2.44 __ 12.56 1965 ___-1.28 _ 1.06 _ 4.44 _ 10.33 _ 19.11 _21.17 _23.50 _ 22.89 _ 19.72 _ 14.06 _ 8.22 _ 4.72 __ 12.33 1966 ___ 0.11 _ 1.72 _ 5.94 __ 9.83 _ 16.44 _24.11 _26.50 _24.94 _19.17 _ 13.44 _ 9.39 _ 2.06 __ 12.83 1967 ___ 3.00 _-1.56 _ 3.11 __ 9.78 _ 12.89 _22.67 _24.06 _23.28 _19.28 _14.00 _ 5.83 _ 3.44 __ 11.67 1968 ___-2.94 _-1.72 _ 6.28 _ 12.78 _15.33 _20.94 _25.17 _24.44 _21.44 _15.83 _ 8.28 _ 1.28 __ 12.28 1969 ___-0.11 _ 0.33 _ 4.50 _ 13.28 _18.50 _22.83 _23.78 _25.22 _20.56 _14.28 _ 8.00 _ 0.78 __ 12.67 1970 ___-3.83 _ 0.56 _ 3.72 _ 11.17 _17.78 _ 21.61 _ 25.06 _ 25.33 _21.56 _ 14.94 _ 9.17 _ 1.33 __ 12.39 1971 ___-2.78 _ 1.72 _ 4.50 _ 10.44 _16.33 _23.44 _25.44 _24.39 _22.00 _ 17.06 _ 7.28 _ 4.89 __ 12.89 1972 ___ 1.72 _-0.33 _ 4.33 _ 10.06 _17.39 _19.94 _25.11 _ 24.22 _ 20.83 _ 11.94 _ 6.89 _ 3.61 __ 12.17 1973 ___ 1.94 _ 0.28 _ 8.00 _ 11.89 _15.28 _23.00 _25.22 _25.33 _20.83 _15.67 _ 9.06 _ 3.89 __ 13.39 1974 ___ 1.83 _-0.17 _ 5.61 _ 12.89 _ 16.11 _20.56 _ 25.11 _ 24.67 _ 19.28 _ 12.28 _ 9.00 _ 4.11 __ 12.61 1975 ___ 2.94 _ 2.11 _ 4.56 __ 8.83 _18.78 _21.39 _24.33 _ 23.56 _ 17.89 _ 15.11 _ 11.28 _ 2.17 __ 12.72 1976 ___-2.56 _ 4.39 _ 6.89 _ 12.78 _15.67 _22.89 _23.78 _23.50 _19.22 _ 11.61 _ 5.39 _ -1.17 __ 11.89 1977 ___-5.50 _ 0.83 _ 8.22 _ 12.06 _18.33 _21.22 _26.11 _ 24.28 _20.11 _12.72 _ 8.50 _ 2.06 __ 12.39 1978 ___-2.22 _-2.67 _ 3.89 _ 10.89 _16.39 _21.83 _ 23.56 _ 24.44 _18.33 _12.72 _ 8.78 _ 3.83 __ 11.67 1979 ___ 0.89 _-3.61 _ 8.28 _ 11.44 _18.50 _20.67 _24.94 _24.89 _21.39 _14.06 _11.39 _ 5.06 __ 13.17 1980 ___ 0.94 _-0.33 _ 5.11 _ 12.50 _18.67 _21.28 _26.28 _26.83 _21.56 _ 12.89 _ 7.00 _ 0.28 __ 12.78 1981 ___-3.17 _ 4.06 _ 5.72 _ 13.44 _18.22 _22.78 _25.83 _24.44 _19.78 _ 12.44 _ 8.72 _ 2.50 __ 12.89 1982 ___-3.28 _ 1.83 _ 5.56 _ 10.67 _17.83 _20.33 _25.50 _22.89 _ 20.17 _ 14.72 _10.22_ 6.00 __ 12.72 1983 ___ 1.39 _ 2.44 _ 6.67 _ 11.28 _15.67 _23.00 _26.39 _25.39 _22.11 _ 14.39 _ 9.39 _ 1.78 __ 13.33 1984 ___-1.17 _ 4.78 _ 2.61 _ 11.06 _ 16.44 _23.61 _23.72 _ 24.83 _18.83 _ 16.56 _ 8.50 _ 6.56 __ 13.06 1985 ___-1.78 _ 2.56 _ 7.67 _ 13.06 _18.50 _20.33 _24.56 _24.11 _21.39 _ 15.28 _10.00_ 1.22 __ 13.06 1986 ___ 1.17 _ 0.00 _ 7.28 _ 12.50 _18.89 _22.00 _24.44 _22.83 _19.94 _ 14.44 _ 7.61 _ 3.89 __ 12.94 1987 ___ 0.17 _ 0.67 _ 7.33 _ 11.89 _17.56 _ 22.67 _25.56 _23.44 _ 19.94 _ 12.11 _ 8.72 _ 4.17 __ 12.83 1988 ___-1.39 _ 1.67 _ 6.44 _ 10.67 _17.06 _22.11 _26.28 _ 26.00 _ 19.67 _ 11.56 _ 9.67 _ 2.17 __ 12.67 1989 ___ 3.00 _ 1.39 _ 5.78 _ 11.22 _16.72 _ 22.22 _23.89 _23.33 _20.06 _14.56 _ 7.61 _-3.39 __ 12.22 1990 ___ 5.22 _ 4.33 _ 7.28 _ 11.94 _15.67 _22.28 _24.89 _24.06 _19.72 _16.61 _10.22_ 5.89 __ 14.00 1991 ___ 1.61 _ 4.44 _ 7.00 _ 13.17 _20.39 _23.39 _25.39 _25.06 _19.72 _14.67 _ 9.06 _ 4.22 __ 14.00 1992 ___ 2.06 _ 2.44 _ 4.44 _ 10.28 _16.11 _21.28 _ 23.44 _ 22.78 _19.56 _ 12.50 _ 8.06 _ 3.28 __ 12.17 1993 ___ 2.39 _-0.67 _ 4.28 _ 11.83 _18.72 _22.94 _26.78 _25.11 _19.61 _ 13.33 _ 9.33 _ 2.94 __ 13.06 1994 ___-3.56 _-0.78 _ 4.83 _ 13.11 _16.56 _24.00 _26.33 _ 23.33 _19.78 _14.44 _11.11 _ 5.67 __ 12.89 1995 ___ 3.06 _-0.22 _ 7.22 _ 11.06 _16.61 _22.11 _ 26.22 _ 25.89 _20.17 _ 16.44 _ 6.44 _ 0.22 __ 12.94 1996 ___-0.83 _ 1.06 _ 3.83 _ 11.22 _ 16.17 _21.89 _ 23.00 _ 23.61 _ 20.00 _13.56 _ 6.11 _ 5.17 ___ 12.06 1997 ___ 0.11 _ 4.44 _ 5.50 _ 10.94 _ 15.22 _21.61 _24.33 _22.94 _ 19.44 _ 13.78 _ 6.94 _ 3.50 __ 12.39 1998 ___ 4.44 _ 4.78 _ 7.44 _ 12.22 _17.94 _20.67 _24.72 _24.83 _21.22 _14.22 _ 8.94 _ 6.22 __ 14.00 1999 ___ 1.06 _ 3.83 _ 5.83 _ 11.94 _ 17.28 _22.89 _27.44 _24.17 _20.61 _13.33 _ 10.33_ 4.44 __ 13.61 2000 ___-0.39 _ 2.94 _ 8.44 _ 10.56 _17.50 _21.83 _22.39 _22.61 _ 18.89 _13.89 _ 7.39 _-0.50 __ 12.17 2001 ___ 0.89 _ 2.17 __ 4.22 _ 12.33 _ 17.67 _22.72 _22.89 _25.94 _19.83 _14.72 _11.50 _ 6.72 __ 13.50 2002 ___ 4.39 _ 4.78 _ 6.72 _ 13.39 _ 15.94 _21.89 _26.00 _25.39 _21.22 _12.89 _ 7.78 _ 2.22 __ 13.56 2003 ___-2.50 _-1.06 _ 6.17 __ 9.89 _ 14.83 _20.17 _ 24.33 _24.83 _ 19.94 _12.83 _10.00_ 3.11 __ 11.89 2004 ___-4.06 _ 1.67 _ 6.39 _ 12.00 _18.44 _21.78 _23.61 _23.44 _ 20.72 _13.33 _ 9.00 _ 3.56 __ 12.50 2005 ___-0.39 _ 2.50 _ 4.11 _ 12.83 _14.94 _ 23.33 _25.28 _26.50 _22.94 _14.39 _ 9.78 _ 1.83 __ 13.22 2006 ___ 4.94 _ 2.06 _ 6.17 _ 13.17 _17.28 _ 21.67 _ 25.50 _24.33 _ 19.22 _13.44 _ 11.06_ 6.44 __ 13.78 2007 ___ 3.06 _-2.11 _ 5.67 _ 10.17 _ 18.44 _ 21.89 _23.89 _ 23.33 _ 21.28 _ 17.56 _ 7.44 _ 2.78 __ 12.78 2008 ___ 2.50 _ 2.11 _ 5.89 _ 12.72 _15.61 _ 23.33 _25.78 _23.22 _ 20.44 _ 12.83 _ 7.67 _ 3.39 __ 12.94 2009 ___-2.28 _ 2.61 _ 5.78 _ 12.50 _16.94 _19.72 _22.61 _ 24.28 _ 19.06 _ 12.78 _ 10.67_ 2.17 __ 12.22 2010 ___ 0.28 _ 0.61 _ 9.00 _ 14.39 _18.50 _23.72 _27.39 _25.22 _ 21.72 _ 14.50 _ 8.83 _ 0.44 __ 13.72 2011 ___-1.28 _ 2.22 _ 5.72 _ 12.39 _18.06 _22.39 _26.78 _24.06 _ 21.11 _ 13.94 _ 11.06_ 6.28 __ 13.56 2012 ___ 2.94 _ 4.94 _10.50_ 12.67 _18.39 _21.67 _26.00 _24.83 _20.44 _14.44 _ 6.61 _ 5.28 __ 14.06 2013 ___ 1.72 __ 1.06 __ 4.50 _ 11.67 _ 17.11 _22.61 _26.56 _ 23.67 _ 19.94 _ 15.67 _ 7.39 _ 3.61 __ 12.94 2014 ___-1.89 _-0.22 _ 3.17 _ 11.28 _ 17.78 _22.50 _24.50 _ 23.61 _ 20.94 _ 15.33 _ 7.39 _ 4.72 __ 12.44 2015 ___-1.17 _-4.50 _ 3.39 _ 12.39 _20.28 _21.78 _26.00 _26.11 _ 23.61 _ 14.44 _ 11.56_ 10.44__ 13.72 2016 ___ 1.39 _ 3.17 _ 9.39 _ 11.83 _ 17.11 _22.39 _25.94 _26.22 _ 22.11 _ 14.89 _ 9.89 _ 3.50 __ 14.00 2017 ___ 3.33 _ 5.33 _ 4.00 _ 14.00 _16.17 _22.22 _24.89 _23.33 _ 21.39 _17.83 _ 8.11 __ 0.78 __ 13.50 2018 ___-0.17 _ 5.56 _ 4.50 __ 9.72 _ 19.39 _22.06 _25.33 _25.61 _21.50 _14.28 _ 6.89 _ 4.50 __ 13.28 2019 ___ 0.28 _ 2.33 _ 5.39 _ 13.06 _ 16.78 _22.06 _26.44 _24.17 _21.33 _15.50 _ 6.61 _ 3.50 __ 13.11 2020 ___ 3.94 _ 4.50 _ 8.89 _ 10.22 _ 15.72_23.17 _26.67 _ 24.94 _20.44 _14.39 _11.67 _ 4.00 __14.06 2021 ___ 1.56 __ 1.22 __ 7.67 _ 12.56 _ 17.17_ 23.50 _24.44 _25.28_ 21.28 _16.67 _ 7.89 _ 6.56 __ 13.83 2022 ___ -0.94 _ 2.94 _7.39 _ 11.56 _ 17.78_ 21.89_ 26.39 _ 26.28 _20.83 _13.83 _ 10.50 _ 3.61 __13.50 2023 ___ 6.39 _ 5.06 _ 7.00 1981-2010 averages _0.39 _1.83 _5.83 _11.72 _16.89 _21.94 _24.72 _24.00_20.00 _13.83 _ 8.72 _3.06 __ 12.72 avgs F ___32.6 _ 35.3 _ 42.5 _ 53.1 _ 62.4 __ 71.5 _ 76.5 __ 75.2 _ 68.0 __ 56.9 _ 47.7 _ 37.5 ___ 54.9 1991-2020 averages _0.94 _2.17 _6.00 _12.06 _17.33 _22.22 _25.28 _24.50_20.67 _14.39 _8.89 _3.94 __ 13.11 avgs F ___33.7 _ 35.9 _ 42.8 _ 53.7 _ 63.2 __ 72.0 _ 77.5 __ 76.1 _ 69.2 __ 57.9 _ 48.0 _ 39.1 ___ 55.6 . LONGEST INTERVALS of ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURES (in specified intervals) 1869 to 1900: ** 3 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages just once before 1900 (Dec 1889 to Feb 1890) ** 4 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages also once (Dec 1897 to Mar 1898) ** 4 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages from August to November 1900 **** 5 months July to November 1900 if we add on July 1900, a month that was above average then (within 0.1F of 1981-2010) 1901 to 1930: ** 3 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages just once May to July 1908 ** 6 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages twice, May to Oct 1906 and May to Oct 1908 **** 10 months May 1908 to Feb 1909 were above normal relative to that period, only Nov 1908 was below recent normals. 1931 to 1960: ** 8 months warmer than (Aug equal to) 1981-2010 averages July 1931 to Feb 1932 and ** 6 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages Sep 1931 to Feb 1932 ** 6 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages May to Oct 1939 and also May 1944 to Oct 1944 ** 10 months warmer than 1981-2010 (8 of them warmer than 1991-2020) Nov 1948 to Aug 1949 ** 8 months warmer than 1981-2010 (7 of them warmer than 1991-2020) May to Dec 1953 ... **** 14 months Nov 1952 to Dec 1953 all warmer than 1931-60 averages (Apr was not warmer than 1981-2010). 1961 to 1990: ** 6 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages June to Nov 1961 ** 8 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages (6 warmer than 1991-2020) June 1973 to Jan 1974 ** 7 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages (5 warmer than 1991-2020) July 1979 to Jan 1980 ** 7 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages Sep 1982 to Mar 1983 (6 warmer than 1991-2020 Oct 1982 to Mar 1983) ** 6 months equal to or warmer than 1991-2020 averages June to November 1983 (one month, Oct 1983, was equal to those) 1991 to 2023: ** 11 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages Oct 1990 to Aug 1991 ** 15 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages July 1998 to Sep 1999 (two equal to those averages, July 1998 and March 1999) ** 7 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages Oct 2001 to April 2002 ** 8 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages Mar to Oct 2010 (9 mo warmer than 1981-2010 incl Nov 2010) ** 14 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages Apr 2011 to May 2012 (the last seven Nov 2011 to May 2012 warmer than 1991-2020) ** 20 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages July 2015 to Feb 2017 ... May 2016 and Dec 2016 were not warmer than 1991-2020 **** 10 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages July 2015 to Apr 2016 (and six more June to Nov 2016) ** 8 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages June 2020 to Jan 2021 (six of these warmer than 1991-2020) ** 10 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages July 2022 to Apr 2023 (assuming Apr 2023 stays warm enough) and eight are likely to be above 1991-2020 but the longest string of consecutive above normal relative to 1991-2020 will be four Jan to Apr 2023. ======================================== On the flip side, the longest runs of months below 1981-2010 normal values are these (in chronological order): 23 months Feb 1874 to Dec 1875 21 months Aug 1885 to Apr 1887 18 months July 1892 to Dec 1893 16 months Oct 1925 to Jan 1927 13 months Nov 1939 to Nov 1940 10 months Oct 1977 to July 1978 (9 months Mar 1992 to Nov 1992) 10 months Nov 1995 to Aug 1996 although 13 to Nov 1996 not above normal (Sep on the 1981-2010 average) 9 months Mar 1997 to Nov 1997 Since then, the longest interval of below 1981-2010 average months is only five Oct 2002 to Feb 2003 and since then four (Apr to July 2003, and Jan to Apr 2014). The longest intervals colder than 1991-2020 averages are sometimes the same as the above list except that Apr 1871 to Dec 1873 had no month warmer but one month (July 1872) equal. That would be 33 months. Some of the other members of the above list fall between months that were above 1991-2020 normals as well as 1981-2010. except for July 1892 on, which encounters months not warmer than 1991-2020 normals until July 1895 (36 months), however March 1894 was equal to the 1991-2020 average; also July 1925 to Jan 1927 were all below 1991-2020 (19 months) . Sep 1939 to Mar 1941 (19 months) were all below 1991-2020 averages. Jan 1958 to Mar 1959 (did not qualify above) were all below 1991-2020 averages (15 months) Aug 1977 to Feb 1979 (also not represented above) had 19 months below 1991-2020 averages. (three were above 1981-2010 averages) Nov 2013 to Apr 2014 were below 1991-2020 averages. Since then the longest interval not above 1991-2020 averages is only four months Apr to July 2017 and this includes June equal to the average. The 2001-2030 normals are likely to be 0.3 F or more above the 1991-2020 averages.

If the absolute dry spell ends today at NYC, then April 2-14 (13 days) is the longest stretch with zero total rainfall (or traces) in April since 2012 (15 days Apr 3-17, 2012) and counting those with some days in April, since 2015 with 23 days (Apr 23 to May 15, 2015). A slightly longer but similarly timed dry spell was 26 days from Apr 22 to May 17, 2001. I find that about 20% of all Aprils have a ten-day absolute dry spell and another 15% have a ten-day or longer interval with less than 0.01" every two days. An example of the latter type occurred last year (Apr 20 to May 1, 2022 had .02" on Apr 26). The longest absolute dry spell within April was 20 days in 1942 (Apr 11 to Apr 30) and that dry spell added five more days May 1-5. April 3 to 21 1976 (19 days) April 6 to 23 1977 (18 days) were second and third longest. Other years with a dry spell similar to this year would be 1968 (9th to 21st) and 1971 (8th to 20th), as well as 1910 (7th to 16th, but an earlier spell of 14 days March 21 to Apr 3 was separated from the second dry spell by only 0.19" of rain April 4-6, and in fact the total rainfall from March 8 to April 16 1910 was only 0.31" and this was quite a warm period too with some highs near 80 F. The very warm spell in mid-April of 1896 had a 13-day dry spell from April 8 to 20, then after 0.23" fell 21st-22nd, another dry spell ran from Apr 23 to May 2 and it stayed quite dry until a three-day heat wave in May, even after that normal amounts of rain only returned in very late stages of May. And in 1877 it was dry from 3rd to 17th (15 days) while 1887 matched this year (2nd to 14th).

Record high minimum at NYC of 70F broke existing 2019 record by 10 (that one only increased the 1896/2014 tied record by one). A 10-degree jump in a record high is fairly unusual. I was able to run a program on my NYC data base and found there were only 15 jumps of 10 or more degrees in the current (366 daily) record high minima and only nine of those larger than 10 degrees. This list also contains five jumps of 10 or more that occurred before the eventual final record was set. This study requires a protocol that highest value 1869-1900 is a "starter" record and subsequent records are increases (if any) on that, which removes a lot of trivial cases from early in the data set. Incr __ Date ______ New record hi min __ Previous __ status +15 _ Jan 4 ________ 59 1950 __________ 44 1933 ___ 1950 final value +13 _ Mar 21 _______ 55 1903 __________ 42 1890/94_ 2012 57F final value +13 _ Dec 27 _______ 57 1949 __________ 44 1881 ___ 1949 final value +13 _ Jan 16 _______ 53 1995 __________ 40 1974* __ 1995 final value +13 _ Dec 24 ______ 63 2015 __________ 50 1931 ___ 2015 final value +12 _ Jan 12 _______ 56 1932 __________ 44 1898 ___ 1932 final value +12 _ Feb 16 _______ 56 2023 __________44 2002 ___ 1932 final value +11 _ Oct 25 _______ 69 1908 __________ 58 1900*___ 1908 final value +11 _ May 3 _______ 67 1913 ___________ 56 1910*___ 2018 70F final value +11 _ Jan 13 _______ 55 1932 __________ 44 1892 ___ 1932 final value +11 _ Jan 27 _______ 53 1916 __________ 42 1911 ____ 1916 final value +10 _ Mar 20 ______ 56 1903 __________ 46 1898 ____ 1948 57F final value +10 _ Apr 8 ________ 65 1929 __________ 55 1922 ____ 1991 66F final value +10 _ May 6 _______ 71 1930 ___________ 61 1909 ____ 1930 final value +10 _ Dec 29 ______ 55 1984 __________ 45 1905*____ 1984 final value +10 _ Feb 23 ______ 55 1985 __________ 45 1943 ____ 1985 final value +10 _ Dec 22 ______ 58 1990 __________ 48 1949 ____ 2013 61F final value +10 _ Feb 5 ________ 51 1991 __________ 41 1943 ____ 1991 final value +10 _ Apr 7 ________ 63 1991 __________ 53 1954 ____ 1991 final value +10 _ Apr 14 _______ 70 2023 __________ 60 2019 ___ 2023 final value ________________ note there are no cases of a 10+ rise in high minimum record values May 7 to Oct 24 inclusive. * these years had earlier tied values ==================== There are a few larger increases in record high maxima. This is the same format for a list of increases of 12 or more in record high maxima (note April 7 has two of them): +17 _ Mar 21 _______ 84 1921 ___________ 67 1919 ___ 1921 final value +17 _ Mar 25 _______ 75 1910 ___________ 58 1904*___1963 (79F) final value +16 _ Jan 27 _______ 69 1916 ___________ 53 1880 ___ 1916 final value +16 _ Feb 25 _______ 75 1930 ___________ 59 1912 ___ 1930 final value +15 _ Mar 13 _______ 85 1990 ___________ 70 1929 ___ 1990 final value +14 _ Mar 14 _______ 70 1903 ___________ 56 1879 ___ 1946 (75F) final value +14 _ Apr 7 _________ 89 1929 __________ 75 1908 ___ 2010 (92F) final value +14 _ Jan 15 _______ 67 1932 ___________ 53 1928 ___ 1932 final value +14 _ Feb 4 ________ 68 1991 ___________ 54 1883 ___ 1991 final value +13 _ Apr 7 _________ 62 1904 __________ 75 1908 ___ 2010 (92F) final value +13 _ Apr 1 _________ 83 1917 ___________ 70 1893 ___ 1917 final value +12 _ Jan 26 _______ 72 1950 ___________ 60 1916 ___ 1950 final value +12 _ Apr 12 ________ 90 1977 ___________ 78 1947 ___ 1977 final value note: all of these occur before April 13 in the calendar year. increases in records, while frequent, are usually on the order of 1-3 F deg in summer. The largest increase late in the year was +11 Nov 1 1950 (84F) from 73F 1927 and 1929. _______________________________________________ Not that many "starter" records have survived to the present time. Sep 7 1881 is probably the one with the largest supremacy over all later readings (101F vs 93F in 1919).