Roger Smith

Developing squall line not intense at moment, runs Utica-Bingamton-wCXY. Will be near PA-NJ border by 7-8 pm. There may be an arctic front about an hour behind it then temps will really begin to fall fast.

Re Quebec wildfires of spring 2023 lasting into June, the area where fires broke out contains a few roads that extend in various directions from Chibougamau (that's the weather station about halfway from James Bay to western Labrador). It's a town of about 8,000 people and along those roads are a few other places with 1-2 k populations. There is a bit of active forestry but as some pointed out, a lot of the timber that far north is unsuitable for any kind of commercial forestry. Except within 10 miles of the sparse road network, it is also inaccessible. Disclaimer: I am not a big conspiracy theorist in general, but the fact is, several known cases of arson leading to forest fires have been prosecuted successfully in various Canadian provinces. There is a lot of suspicion in Canada that the enormous Fort mac (Alberta) blaze in 2016 started from a campfire on a forest access road about 25 miles west of t e city, whether that was human carelessness or deliberate arson is not known. No suspects were ever identified. The Quebec fires all appeared to start in a short 24-hour time window in locations near those roads I mentioned. It was warm and dry for a week or two and not particularly windy but satellite imagery showed no convection, and weather maps showed no frontal activity. A theory of arson as cause is perhaps more plausible here than in the western Canada wildfire seasons of recent years where you had all the usual natural factors in place. Even so, one or two of those fires were deliberately started. Who does this? Two groups would top the list. One would be regional residents hoping to start fires to get crew work. Another would be either random mentally ill people or (if you perceive a difference) radical eco-freaks who think perhaps a catastrophic wildfire outbreak would "bring public awareness of climate change" (not to mention actually creating climate change). A third less likely group would be terrorist cells attacking our two national economies (wildfires don't do much good to the economy, BC for example spent almost a billion dollars fighting fires in 2021 alone). Another possible cause of wildfires is sparking from passing trains. This has been identified as a possible cause of the burndown of Lytton BC on June 30, 2021 during the heat dome episode. But there are no railways in the parts of Quebec where fires broke out. I found it particularly suspicious that about a dozen separate fires all started in the same 24-hour period in Quebec last spring near road systems. This is bound to become a trend because even if only about one in two thousand people are susceptible to the various causal factors to act as arsonists, that translates to 5,000 people in a state or province with ten million people. That's a lot of potential arsonists. Now success in this sort of enterprise would depend on some knowledge of weather factors and forest dynamics. A potential arsonist who went out in the wrong weather or forest fire risk situation would probably leave no evidence of their efforts. When people say we can expect more of this, do they mean more climate stress or more social factors as the actual cause? If it is a 50-50 blend of both we are really in trouble. (two additional causes of wildfires, slash burning efforts that get out of control, and power line arcing in high winds, more of a problem in California in part due to misguided laws allowing full tree growth under power lines, something not done in most other jurisdictions where we clear cut power line corridors for this reason).

I will bet it gets past 70F during breaks today and late cold front looks very powerful, reports of tornado(s) near Kalamazoo and in eastern IL earlier. Possible line squall situation for PA could extend into your forum coverage area too, timing around 6 pm to 9 pm, but TRW+ potential begins earlier (noon to 3 pm). Very strong winds and temperature drops into 20s (15F nw). Could be brief outbreaks of blowing snow in mountains. This is really moving along fast, cold front passed my location on monday morning around 12z. Temp fell from 50F to 25F and that was in an early phase of the storm's development. Would not be surprised to see a tornado watch in VA and NC.

Watch for line squall and wind damage potential by late Wed followed by a crazy drop in temps. Tornado reports from near Kalamazoo in s mi.

Cold front looking very powerful, strong tornado outbreak in southern michigan overnight ... fronts will arrive in NYC region around 8 pm with second fropa around 11 p to midnight, I am surprised there isn't a thread started for this event as well as sharp temperature falls overnight into Thursday, could see 60s to 20s and 15-20 F in far nw portions of forum? Not much if any temperature recovery during a sunny leap year day. Upstate NY, parts of PA, s ON wind damage followed by heavy snow squalls and a drop from near 70F into teens or even single digits. Reminds one of that temperature drop on Dec 23, 2022 (58 to 8 F). Not sure if cold front will beat midnight to remove some of the potential from Feb 29 being the largest drop possible in a calendar day (in this situation), will be so in eastern New England and possibly Long Island. It's going to be ugly when this surge of warm air gets over the 30-40 inch snowpack in eastern Nova Scotia.

Context for today's possible near-record warm temperatures: Record max for NYC (Feb 28) is 67F (1976). It was 56F in 1878 and 1880, 62F in 1903, before eventual record in 1976. The record high min of 47F was set in 1903, 1910 and 2017. If warm temperatures continue past midnight: Record max for NYC (Feb 29) is 69F (1880). Since then, 66F (1976) and 61F (2016).

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Mar 1st. (late Thursday evening in EST)

I will open March contest now, and will remember the above forecast is posted if I don't see an update.

1888, 1899, 1922, 1960, 2010

Final scoring for February 2024 __FORECASTER __________________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___TOTALS rainsucks ________________________ 92 _ 98 _ 78 __ 268__ 61 _ 44 _ 56 __ 161 _ 429 _ 34 _ 60 _ 90 __184 ____ 613 wxallannj _________________________42 _ 56 _ 76 __ 174 __ 26 _ 56 _ 50 __ 132 _ 306 _ 52 _100 _ 96 __248 ____ 554 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 42 _ 40 _ 60 __ 142 __ 18 _ 48 _ 60 __ 126 _ 268 _ 34 _ 92 _ 86 __ 212 ____ 480 BKViking _________________________36 _ 40 _ 52 __ 128 __ 08 _ 52 _ 38 __ 098 __226 _ 48 _ 98 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 454 DonSutherland1 _________________ 40 _ 48 _ 62 __ 150 __ 42 _ 42 _ 30 __ 114 _ 264 _ 62 _ 70 _ 46 __ 178 ____ 442 Scotty Lightning _________________ 32 _ 36 _ 42 __ 110 __ 00 _ 60 _ 48 __ 108 _ 218 __ 22 _100_ 94 __ 216 ____ 434 ___ Consensus __________________34 _ 40 _ 54 __ 128 __ 20 _ 44 _ 24 __ 108 _ 236 _ 34 _ 76 _ 86 __ 196 ____ 432 RJay _____________________________ 52 _ 56 _ 72 __ 180 __ 28 _ 44 _ 18 __ 090 _ 270 _ 62 _ 70 _ 66 __ 198 _(468) RJay _____ (-10%) ________________ 47 _ 50 _ 65 __ 162 __ 25 _ 40 _ 16 __ 081 _ 243 _ 56 _ 63 _ 59 __ 178 ____ 421 RodneyS _________________________ 18 _ 54 _ 52 __ 124 __ 33 _ 44 _ 44 __ 121 _ 245 __ 18 _ 44 _ 90 __ 152 ____ 397 so_whats_happening ____________ 40 _ 46 _ 68 __ 154 __ 47 _ 34 _ 00 __ 081 _ 235 _ 40 _ 44 _ 66 __ 150 ____ 385 Tom ______________________________ 24 _ 32 _ 54 __ 110 __ 12 __ 32 _ 12 __ 056 _ 166 _ 16 _ 82 _ 84 __ 182 ____ 348 ___Normal _______________________ 12 _ 16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 00 _ 44 _ 18 __ 062 _ 122 _ 02 _ 70 _ 94 __166 ____ 288 wxdude64 ________________________ 08 _ 28 _ 40 __ 076 __ 12 _ 26 _ 12 __ 050 _ 126 _ 14 _ 48 _ 96 __ 158 ____ 284 Stormchaser Chuck ______________ 12 __16 _ 32 __ 060 __ 28 _ 00 _ 00 __ 028 _ 088 _ 42 _ 90 _ 56 __ 188 ____ 276 Rhino16 ___________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 __ 05 _ 20 _ 16 __ 041 _ 057 _ 04 _ 66 _100__ 170 ____ 227 Roger Smith _______________________00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 05 _ 00__ 005 _ 005 _ 20 _ 94 _ 66 __ 180 ____ 185 ___ Persistence __ (Jan 2024) _____ 58 _ 78 _ 96 __ 232 __ 10 _ 34 _ 00 __ 044 _ 276 _ 00 _ 50 _ 74 __ 124 ____ 400 =================================== Extreme forecast report DCA, NYC, BOS _ three wins for Rainsucks with highest forecasts. ORD _ Also a win for Rainsucks with highest forecast. ATL _ A win for Scotty L with highest forecast. IAH _ A win for hudsonvalley21 with highest forecast. DEN _ A win for DonSutherland1 with highest forecast. PHX _ A loss for BKViking and a win wxallannj and Scotty L with next highest forecasts. SEA _ Did not qualify as an extreme forecast.

I always figure high pressure will sit over deep snow packs in late winter, and there is a lot of snow on the ground in central to eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada, especially eastern NS and PEI. I would say watch for signals around 10-15 March for best chances of that one (perhaps) final event.

4.3" fell at Springfield, IL, 3.3" STL.

Looks a bit better now, will go 2-4, did you see how 12z GFS run ends? A very cold shot after a few milder days. Could be a period to watch (early march).

I am hoping for five of these to help my snowfall forecast. Edited my forecast re WV.

This won't shift north (of 18z GFS) and you'll get 2.5" to 4.5" (4-6" WV mtns).

Unless it tracks n of current guidance, I can only see 0.8-1.5" potential in metro NYC, 2-4" se PA- cNJ and 3-5" md-DC-nVA-DE. Will take a look Friday p.m. at performance in midwest to see if I would adjust.

Seeing 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. on latest guidance. could flurry to 8 a.m.

_ Tracking anomalies ... ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ (anom Feb 1-14) ______ +6.4 _ +7.1 _ +6.2 __+12.1 _ +5.7 _ +4.6 __ +5.1 _ -2.3 _ +0.9 __ (p anom Feb 29) ______ +2.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +6.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __+3.0 _ -1.0 _ +1.5 ___ (anom Feb) ___________+4.4 _ +4.2 _ +3.4 _ +10.7_ +4.6 _ +4.2 __+4.9 _ +1.5 _ +0.3 ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date ___________ 8.0 __ 7.5 __ 9.7 ____ 21.2 _ 22.6 _ 59.6 ___ 29.1 _ 0.0 _ 36.2

We can't even get it to snow properly here halfway up a mountain next to a ski resort, so really ... what chance does a subtropical coastal location have?

It will snow again, milankovitch cycles will edge slowly in our favor by 15,000 AD. And we should be well past fossil fuels by then too. Lookin' good.

A DC to Salisbury jackpot. Very interesting.

It is a bit hit or miss for details before about 1850, I've found, knowing some other sources for European storms like a destructive windstorm in Ireland in Jan 1839 for which maps seem under-done on intensity, but yes it can be used in combination with the Alexis Caswell Providence RI weather diary to get a very good idea of what was going on even back a bit before the map series now starts. In my thread in the climate change forum (NYC and Toronto weather records analyzed) I've got a link to Caswell's diary on line version, and also I compiled daily records for is 30-year period of obs (1831-60) including quite a few big snowstorms. Just off the top of my head, blizzards in Jan 1852, Dec 1853 around New Years eve, early Jan 1856 and the super cold outbreak blizzard of (around) Jan 21, 1857, so a very active period 1852 to 1857. That severe winter episode was followed within 2-3 weeks by record warmth and flooding rains (ice jams). It was not as active either side (but there's a very juicy looking storm around Feb 5, 1845 that I know dumped 15-20 inches on Toronto. Another historic storm where you can see some map details would be Jan 31, 1843, a pattern changer that led into a long interval of severe winter conditions in the U.S. midwest states (very harsh for two months in WI and IL).

In that interval (1949 to 1955) there were several brutal heat waves (1949, 1952, 1953, 1954 and 1955, and a brief record-breaking burst of heat also in June 1956 followed by a cool, wet summer (but that was after the 6" daily snow drought ended anyway). Also in 1950 Jan and Nov all-time temperature records were set. 1951 was more moderate for warmth. There was actually a snowfall of 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954 but 5.4" was its top daily amount in that event. (I looked to see what was the top snowfall in the lean snow period, think it was that one). Feb 1954 was a very mild month also coast to coast, some all-time temperature records were set in Alberta. Even so, early spring of 1954 turned quite cold with some records set in early April. I wonder if you will see an early spring warm spell and a week or two of cold later in march or April (like 1972 and 1982).

Stats for Central Park NYC Feb 1899 Date __ max ___ min _____ Prec ___ Snow _ 01 ___ 21 _____ 12 _______ 0.01 ___ 1.0 __ 2.0" 2d (1.0" also Jan 31) _02 ___ 35 _____ 16 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _03 ___ 40 _____ 28 _______ 0.12 ___ 0.0 _04 ___ 39 _____ 27 _______ 0.16 ___ 0.0 _05 ___ 35 _____ 26 _______ 0.15 ___ 1.0 _06 ___ 31 _____ 24 _______ 0.09 ___ 0.8 (1.8 2d) _07 ___ 28 _____ 24 _______ 0.20 ___ 2.6 _08 ___ 31 _____ 11 ________ 0.30 ___ 3.9 (6.5 2d) _09 ___ 11 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _10 ___ 07 _____-06 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _11 ___ 09 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _12 ___ 09 _____ 04 _______ 0.23 ___ 5.3 _13 ___ 11 _____ 06 _______ 0.47 ___ 10.7 (16.0)2d _14 ___ 24 _____ 10 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _15 ___ 35 _____ 18 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _16 ___ 37 _____ 26 _______ 0.71 ___ 0.0 _17 ___ 47 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _18 ___ 45 _____ 36 _______ 0.43 ___ 0.0 _19 ___ 41 _____ 36 _______ 0.01 ___ 0.0 _20___ 49 _____ 36 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _21 ___ 53 _____ 40 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _22 ___ 52 _____ 41 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _23 ___ 46 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _24 ___ 34 _____ 26 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _25 ___ 40 _____ 22 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _26 ___ 45 _____ 32 _______ 1.00 ___ Tr _ _27 ___ 50 _____ 36 _______ 0.03 ___ 0.0 _28 ___ 45 _____ 27 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 avg,_ 33.9 ____ 21.8 ______ 3.91 ___ 25.3" snow tot __ ___( 27.8 )___ __ __ __ (1.72" rain on days w/zero snow + any mixed in on snowfall days -- probably zero) Ground was likely bare to traces on Jan 30, but frozen, 2" fell 31st-1st to start February, after a rainstorm (1.55") on Jan 24 near 50F probably removed any snow cover (no large falls in Jan before it). Temperatures fell below freezing around Jan 28 but only small amounts of snow fell Jan 24 to 30. Low max readings are still daily records for Feb 10, 11, 12, 13. (Feb 9 11F broken by 8F in 1934) ... Low min Feb 10, 11 still records; Feb 9 (-2) was broken in 1934. Note five consecutive days max temp 11 F or lower (Feb 9-13) leading up to blizzard. Not sure about reports for blizzard being on Feb 14, sources I consulted verify overnite Feb 12-13, low was closest to NYC 12z to 18z Feb 13 and in eastern Canada by Feb 14. Blizzard conditions probably persisted into Feb 14 due to strong winds. 16.0" of snow fell Feb 12-13 at NYC. Cold rainfall after snowstorm must have made a real mess of recovery efforts, wonder if it glazed over for part of Feb 16? Next rainfall on Feb 18 likely left a lot of slushy ponding, full snow melt likely in warmer days around Feb 20-22. max 53F Feb 21 was a record (1869-1899) only to 1906 (58F), broken several more times since. A lot of rain fell in a cold second half of march and 3.0" snow on mar 7, 1.0" mar 25-26. April was reasonably warm and it was briefly very warm Apr 30 to may 2 (76, 84, 86) ... warmest part of summer was early June, several days in mid 90s June 5-8 and another notable cold spell came Oct 1-3 (max 51, 49, 52, min 42, 40, 38). Storm position s.e. of NYC at 18z Feb 13, 1899 from NOAA (wetterzentrale). http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1899&maand=02&dag=13&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref You could look back or forward to see rest of key events. Earlier 6.5" snowstorm was a coastal low also. First rainfall looked like a weak nor'easter, flow lifted in stages after Feb 17. Feb 14 1899 probably a ground blizzard situation, strong N-NW winds but likely sunny and cold above blowing snow.

Possibly a very large spread IAD-DCA? I could see it being like 6" to 2" and BWI in between.