Roger Smith

Predict temperature anomalies for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAh _ DEN _ PhX _ SEA relative to 1991-2020 normals. Deadline 06z Monday, May 1st. Good luck !

To answer the question several had asked, May at NYC has never been colder than its previous April. The (15) closest calls are: YEAR ____APR __MAY ___incr 1945 ____55.6 __ 59.2 ___ 3.6 2005 ____55.1 __ 58.9 ___ 3.8 2017 ____57.2 __ 61.1 ____ 3.9 1915 _____54.4 __ 59.0 ___4.6 1968 _____55.0 __ 59.6 ___4.6 2002 ____ 56.1 __ 60.7 ___4.6 1921 _____56.1 __ 61.2 ___ 5.1 1976 ____ 55.0 __ 60.2 ___ 5.2 2008 ____ 54.9 __ 60.1 ___ 5.2 1967 ____49.6 __ 55.2 ___ 5.6 1952 ____55.0 __ 60.7 ___ 5.7 1974 ____55.2 __ 61.0 ___ 5.8 1910 _____55.1 __ 61.0 ___ 5.9 1917 _____48.4 __ 54.3 ___5.9 1954 _____53.8 __ 59.8 ___6.0 ________________________________________ May 1967 was only 0.2 warmer than April 1968 and was 0.7 colder than April 1969. May 1917 was 0.1 colder than April 1915. and 1.8 colder than April 1921. Those are the only two cases where May was colder than any April within two years.

Final scoring for April 2023 Scores based on latest provisional end of month anomalies posted above. Late penalties not applied yet. ^ scored by "max 60" rank order scoring (IAH). Normal given raw score of 62. * scores adjusted for late penalty of 2% FORECASTER _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxdude64 ___________________________ 66 _ 70 _ 88 __ 224 __ 74 _ 72 _ 20^ __ 166 __ 390 __ 94 _ 90 _ 78 __ 262 ____ 652 hudsonvalley21 ______________________ 74 _ 64 _100 __ 238 __ 82 _ 50 _ 08^__ 140 __ 378 __ 96 _ 84 _ 90 __ 270 ____ 648 RJay _________________________________ 62 _ 62 _ 96 __ 220 __ 90 _ 56 _ 12^ __ 158 __ 378 __ 80 _ 98 _ 84 __ 262 ____ 640 Rhino16 _______________________________58 _ 48 _ 82 __ 188 __ 86 _ 70 _ 42^__ 198 __ 386 __ 98 _ 74 _ 72 __ 244 ____ 630 ___ Consensus ________________________62 _ 52 _ 82 __ 196 __ 80 _ 64 _ 25^__ 169 __ 365 __ 96 _ 76 _ 68 __ 240 ____ 605 DonSutherland1 ______________________ 54 _ 52 _ 80 __ 186 __ 66 _ 62 _ 42^__ 170 __ 356 __ 94 _ 48 _ 94 __ 236 ____ 592 Tom __________ (-2%) _________________63* _63*_ 73*__199 __ 37*_ 80*_ 60^ __ 177 __ 376 __ 76*_ 74*_ 65*__215 ____ 591 wxallannj ____________________________ 66 _ 66 _ 92 __ 224 __ 96 _ 64 _ 16^ __ 176 __ 400 __ 72 _ 92 _ 24 __ 188 ____ 588 StormchaserChuck1 _________________ 94 _ 98 _ 66 __ 258 __ 68 _ 26 _ 04^__ 098 __ 356 __ 90 _ 70 _ 64 __ 224 ____ 580 Scotty Lightning ______________________52 _ 42 _ 76 __ 170 __ 80 _ 76 _ 30^__ 186 __ 356 __ 80 _ 92 _ 34 __ 206 ____ 562 Roger Smith __________________________62 _ 58 _ 86 __ 206 __ 96 _ 50 _ 04^__ 150 __ 356 __ 84 _ 58 _ 54 __ 196 ____ 552 Normal ________________________________22 _ 22 _ 56 __ 100 __ 60 _ 94 _ 62 __ 216 __ 316 __100 _ 78 _ 44 __ 222 ____ 538 BKViking ______________________________56 _ 52 _ 82 __ 190 __ 76 _ 64 _ 25^__ 165 __ 355 __ 92 _ 66 _ 24 __ 182 ____ 537 RodneyS ______________________________46 _ 44 _ 70 __ 160 __ 28 _ 98 _ 54^__ 180 __ 340 __ 68 _ 52 _ 68 __ 188 ____ 528 rainsucks _____________________________ 42 _ 32 _ 36 __ 110 __ 00 _ 66 _ 48^__ 114 __ 224 __ 50 _ 98 _ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 - - - - - - ___ Persistence ________________________52 _ 58 _ 94 __ 204 __ 56 _ 58 _ 00 __ 114 __ 318 __ 00 _ 00 _ 96 __ 096 ____ 414 __________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report DCA (+3.9) NYC (+3.9) are wins for StormchaserChuck with warmest forecasts (+3.6, +3.8) BOS (+2.2) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.2) and a loss for Stormchaser Chuck (+3.9) ORD (+2.0) is a shared win for wxallannj (+2.2) and Roger Smith (+1.8) and a loss for Stormchaser Chuck (+3.6). PHX (+1.1) is a win for RJay and rainsucks (both +1.0), and loss for wxallannj and Scotty Lightning (both +1.5). DEN outcome (0.0) was close to consensus and does not qualify. ATL (+0.3), IAH (-1.9) and SEA (-2.8) wins for RodneyS, Tom, and DonSutherland1 on coldest forecasts, Normal also wins for IAH. ================================================

Comparing the means for April 1-16 of other years, I find that 2023 is in second place to 2010: YEAR ____ Mean 1-16 ___ Mean APR ____ Rank 2010 _____ 60.4 ________ 57.9 _______________ 1 2023 _____ 59.9 ________ ?? ?? ______________ ?? 1945 _____ 57.7 ________ 55.6 ______________ t-10 1991 _____ 56.4 ________ 55.7 _______________ t-8 1981 _____ 56.2 ________ 56.2 _______________ 4 2017 _____ 55.9 ________ 57.2 _______________ 2 2006 _____ 54.9 ________ 55.7 ______________ t-8 2012 _____ 54.8 ________ 54.8 ______________ 21 1980 _____ 54.7 ________ 54.5 _____________ t-23 2002 _____ 54.7 ________ 57.9 ______________ t-5 1968 _____ 54.6 ________ 55.0 _____________ t-17 1921 _____ 54.4 ________ 56.1 _______________ t-5 1941 _____ 53.8 ________ 56.9 ______________ 3 1969 _____ 53.8 ________ 55.9 ______________ 7 1910 _____ 53.7 ________ 55.1 ______________ t-15 2019 _____ 53.7 ________ 55.5 _____________ t-12 1955 _____ 53.6 ________ 53.5 _____________ t-40 1999 _____ 53.3 ________ 53.5 _____________ t-40 2022 _____ 53.3 ________ 52.8 _____________ 54 2014 _____ 52.9 ________ 52.3 _____________ t-57 2021 _____ 52.8 ________ 54.6 ______________22 2005 _____ 52.6 ________ 55.1 _____________ t-15 1959 _____ 52.5 ________ 53.8 _____________ t-32 1994 _____ 52.5 ________ 55.6 _____________ t-10 1922 _____ 52.4 ________ 51.5 _____________ 73 1949 _____ 52.4 ________ 53.8 _____________ t-32 2015 _____ 52.3 ________ 54.3 _____________ t-27 1871 _____ 52.2 ________ 52.0 _____________ t-65 1998 _____ 52.1 ________ 54.0 _____________ 31 1963 _____ 52.0 ________ 53.7 _____________ t-36 ____________________________________ The list includes all 1-16 values higher than 52.0, end of April ranks not included were cooler than 52.5 at this stage. Rounding out the top 20 Aprils not in the list, t-12 1985 (55.5) was 50.0, 14th 1974 (55.1) was 50.8, t-17 1952 (55.0) was 50.6, t-17 1976 (55.0) was 49.5, and 20th 2008 (54.9) was 51.5. 1977 (53.5) finished t-36 and was 50.7 after 16 days despite the record highs.

One answer to question(s) about consecutive above normal months ... this table shows 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages as well as all monthly averages. I have highlighted all above normal months (1991-2020 normals) in bold and those which were only above 1981-2010 normals in bold italics (e.g. Jan 1894). Any underlined value is on the average value (e.g. Jan 1924 is on the 1981-2010 average). This establishes the longest stretches of above normal monthly temperatures. Analysis follows the table. YEAR ___JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN __ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC __ YEAR 1869 ___ 1.72 _ 1.39 _ 1.56 __9.56 _14.28 _20.72 _22.67 _ 22.11 _ 18.67 _10.50 _ 4.61 _ 1.50 __ 10.78 1870 ___ 3.06 _-0.39 _ 1.17 _10.39 _16.06 _22.72 _24.78 _24.06 _19.78 _13.72 _ 7.50 _ 1.17 __ 12.00 1871 ___-2.06 _-1.00 _ 6.78 _11.11 _15.78 _ 20.11 _ 22.39 _ 23.11 _ 16.00 _13.11 _ 3.78 _-1.56 __ 10.61 1872 ___-1.78 _-1.17 _-0.83 __9.67 _16.39 _21.78 _25.28 _24.22 _19.11 _11.78 _ 5.00 _-2.94 __ 10.56 1873 ___-1.89 _-1.39 _ 2.06 __8.17 _14.89 _21.28 _24.11 _ 22.22 _18.56 _13.22 _ 2.78 _ 2.50 __ 10.56 1874 ___ 1.22 _-0.39 _ 2.83 __5.06 _14.89 _21.17 _23.28 _21.28 _19.44 _12.83 _ 6.33 _ 1.00 __ 10.72 1875 ___-4.56 _-3.78 _ 1.17 __6.17 _15.61 _ 20.67 _23.33 _22.72 _17.78 _12.00 _ 4.06 _ 1.06 ___ 9.67 1876 ___ 2.56 _-0.11 _ 1.33 __8.33 _15.67 _23.06 _26.33 _24.00 _17.61 _10.33 _ 7.33 _-3.94 __ 11.06 1877 ___-2.39 _ 2.78 _ 2.11 __8.72 _15.33 _21.22 _23.89 _ 24.11 _ 19.39 _13.22 _ 6.94 _ 3.00 __ 11.56 1878 ___-0.94 _ 0.11 _ 6.72 _11.83 _15.22 _19.83 _25.44 _23.44 _20.17 _14.83 _ 6.56 _ 0.44 __ 12.00 1879 ___-2.83 _-2.22 _ 4.44 __9.11 _17.39 _21.22 _23.89 _22.22 _17.39 _ 15.72 _ 6.33 _ 2.94 __ 11.28 1880 ___ 4.00 _ 2.89 _ 2.50 _10.00 _19.94 _22.83 _23.83 _22.61 _19.50 _12.00 _3.72 _-3.06 __ 11.72 1881 ___-4.06 _-1.83 _ 2.61 __ 7.94 _16.83 _ 18.44 _23.17 _23.22 _23.00 _14.89 _ 7.33 _ 4.11 __ 11.33 1882 ___-1.78 _ 1.78 _ 4.67 __ 8.67 _13.67 _ 22.11 _24.33 _23.00 _19.50 _ 13.94 _ 4.00 _-0.78 __ 11.11 1883 ___-3.78 _-1.00 _ 0.39 __8.39 _16.17 _23.33 _23.61 _21.33 _ 17.00 _ 11.22 _ 6.50 __ 0.00 _ 10.28 1884 ___-4.06 _ 1.11 __ 3.17 __8.94 _15.44 _21.83 _22.17 _23.17 _ 22.22 _14.28 _ 6.83 _ 0.89 __ 11.33 1885 ___-1.44 _-5.17 _-0.78__9.67 _15.50 _21.67 _25.83 _22.44 _18.00 _ 12.28 _ 7.17 _ 2.06 __ 10.61 1886 ___-2.89 _-2.50 _ 3.11 _11.61 _15.67 _ 20.00 _23.78 _21.22 _18.50 _ 12.72 _ 7.00 _-1.33 __ 10.56 1887 ___-1.61 __ 0.00 _ 0.17 __7.94 _17.67 _20.89 _25.67 _21.11 _16.56 _ 11.22 _ 5.22 _ 1.00 __ 10.50 1888 ___-5.00 _-1.50 _-1.11 __7.78 _14.44 _ 21.61 _ 21.50 _22.56 _17.11 __9.22 _ 7.50 _ 1.50 ___ 9.61 1889 ___ 2.06 _-2.33 _ 4.28 _10.67 _17.50 _21.39 _22.89 _21.44 _18.44 _9.83 _ 7.06 _ 4.44 __ 11.50 1890 ___ 3.11 _ 3.28 _ 2.00 __9.50 _15.72 _ 21.17 _ 22.83 _22.61 _19.50 _12.50 _ 6.61 _-1.17 __ 11.50 1891 ___ 1.00 _ 2.50 _ 2.11 __9.83 _14.33 _21.89 _ 22.44 _24.17 _22.00 _12.61 _ 6.83 _ 5.72 __ 12.11 1892 ___-0.28 _ 0.78 _ 1.22 __9.33 _15.11 _23.06 _23.83 _23.50 _18.17 _ 11.67 _ 6.33 _ 0.11 __ 11.06 1893 ___-4.61 _-1.44 _ 1.94 __8.00 _14.56 _20.06 _23.11 _23.06 _17.39 _ 13.44 _ 6.06 _ 1.39 __ 10.22 1894 ___ 0.89 _-1.89 _ 6.00 __9.56 _16.06 _21.33 _23.89 _21.44 _20.44 _12.94 _ 5.28 _ 2.67 __ 11.56 1895 ___-1.22 _-4.39 _ 1.89 _ 10.06 _16.94 _22.72 _22.56 _24.22 _21.61 _11.39 _ 8.78 _ 3.39 __11.50 1896 ___-1.22 _-0.06 _ 0.33 _ 11.28 _19.44 _21.00 _24.89 _24.50 _19.61 _12.17 _ 9.94 _ 1.22 __ 11.94 1897 ___-0.67 _ 0.67 _ 4.89 _ 10.28 _16.39 _ 19.72 _24.39 _22.89 _19.44 _13.67 _ 7.78 _ 3.50 __ 11.89 1898 ___ 1.83 _ 2.11 _ 7.56 __ 8.72 _ 14.67 _ 21.78 _ 24.50 _24.06 _21.28 _15.28 _ 7.56 _ 1.44 __ 12.56 1899 ___-0.33 _-2.28 _ 3.28 _ 9.72 _16.83 _23.39 _24.56 _24.00 _ 18.94 _14.78 _ 7.78 _ 3.44 __ 12.00 1900 ___-0.11 _-0.94 _ 0.78 _ 10.00 _15.33 _21.39 _ 24.67 _24.56 _21.39 _16.28 _ 9.50 _ 2.39 __ 12.11 1901 ___ 0.28 _-3.17 _ 3.56 __ 8.78 _ 14.11 _ 21.44 _25.39 _23.89 _20.11 _ 13.28 _ 4.28 _ 2.06 __ 11.17 1902 ___-0.78 _-1.28 _ 6.89 _ 10.33 _14.94 _19.33 _22.67 _22.17 _ 19.28 _ 14.56 _10.89_ 0.28 __ 11.61 1903 ___-0.89 _ 0.67 _ 8.78 _ 11.11 _ 17.11 _ 17.89 _23.67 _ 20.61 _ 19.44 _ 14.44 _ 5.67 _-0.28 __ 11.50 1904 ___-3.72 _-3.67 _ 2.44 __ 8.11 _17.44 _21.22 _23.67 _22.78 _ 19.33 _ 12.11 __ 5.78 _ -0.94 __ 10.39 1905 ___-1.50 _-4.00 _ 4.67 __ 9.94 _16.39 _21.06 _25.06 _23.50 _20.89 _15.22 _ 6.72 _ 3.83 __ 11.83 1906 ___ 3.56 _ 0.44 _ 2.00 _ 10.89 _17.28 _23.11 _25.06 _25.06 _21.17 _ 14.17 __ 7.50 _ 1.22 __ 12.61 1907 ___ 1.61 _-3.39 _ 5.83 __ 8.17 _ 13.44 _20.33 _25.22 _23.00 _19.39 _ 11.50 _ 7.89 _ 3.78 __ 11.39 1908 ___ 0.83 _-2.50 _ 5.22 _ 11.22 _17.44 _22.78 _26.56 _24.33 _20.33 _16.00 _ 8.22 _ 3.11 __ 12.78 1909 ___ 1.50 _ 3.17 _ 3.22 __ 9.11 _ 16.11 _ 22.28 _ 23.06 _ 22.33 _19.33 _ 12.50 _ 9.72 _ 0.22 __ 11.89 1910 ___-0.50 _-1.11 _ 6.11 _ 12.83 _ 16.11 _20.39 _ 25.11 _ 22.22 _ 20.78 _ 14.89 _ 5.72 _-1.11 __ 11.78 1911 ___ 2.39 _-0.39 _ 1.50 __ 8.78 _17.83 _21.00 _ 25.33 _22.67 _19.78 _ 13.44 _ 5.94 _ 4.11 __ 11.89 1912 ___-4.61 _-1.78 _ 3.11 _ 10.22 _16.83 _ 20.94 _24.28 _22.06 _ 19.22 _ 15.11 _ 8.78 _ 4.06 __ 11.50 1913 ___ 4.89 _-0.39 _ 7.11 _ 11.39 _15.94 _ 21.39 _24.50 _23.00 _ 18.11 _ 14.78 _ 8.50 _ 3.72 __ 12.78 1914 ___-0.28 _-3.67 _ 2.50 __ 8.83 _18.06 _20.50 _22.28 _23.67 _19.39 _15.22 _ 6.94 _-0.22 __ 11.11 1915 ___ 1.39 _ 2.17 _ 2.67 _ 12.44 _ 15.00 _20.00 _23.28 _22.00 _21.11 _ 14.28 _ 7.94 _ 0.83 __ 11.94 1916 ___ 2.22 _-2.28 _ 0.22 __ 9.11 _ 16.33 _18.72 _24.11 _ 23.78 _ 19.67 _ 14.28 _ 7.50 _ 1.11 ___ 11.22 1917 ___ 0.50 _-2.06 _ 4.06 __ 9.11 _12.39 _21.28 _24.39 _24.56 _ 17.56 _ 11.67 _ 5.33 _-3.89 __ 10.39 1918 ___-5.72 _-0.89 _ 5.61 _ 10.39 _18.50 _19.89 _23.67 _24.72 _ 17.72 _15.00 _ 8.11 _ 4.11 __ 11.78 1919 ___ 2.00 _ 1.61 _ 6.28 _ 10.00 _16.67 _21.61 _ 23.94 _21.72 _ 19.78 _ 15.11 _ 7.33 _-1.00 __ 12.11 1920 ___-4.78 _-1.94 _ 4.39 __ 8.94 _14.89 _20.67 _23.22 _23.50 _20.28 _16.17 _ 6.89 _ 2.94 __ 11.28 1921 ___ 0.78 __ 1.11 _ 9.11 _ 13.39 _16.22 _21.78 _ 25.17 _ 22.00 _22.28 _13.50 _ 7.06 _ 0.28 __ 12.72 1922 ___-2.11 _ 0.89 _ 5.00 _ 10.83 _18.11 _22.11 _ 23.17 _ 22.44 _ 20.11 _ 14.56 _ 7.61 _ 0.89 __ 11.94 1923 ___-1.11 _-3.22 _ 2.67 _10.17 _15.56 _23.00 _23.22 _ 22.56 _20.17 _ 13.33 _ 7.33 _ 5.56 __ 11.61 1924 ___ 0.39 _-1.72 _ 4.00 __ 9.50 _14.06 _19.89 _23.39 _23.50 _17.83 _ 13.94 _ 6.89 _ 1.11 __ 11.06 1925 ___-2.00 _ 3.28 _ 6.78 _ 11.00 _15.33 _23.50 _23.11 _22.94 _20.44 _10.33 _ 6.61 _ 1.56 __ 11.89 1926 ___ 0.00 _-1.56 _ 2.06 __ 8.50 _15.61 _ 19.33 _23.94 _23.33 _18.72 _ 12.83 _ 7.17 _-1.72 __ 10.67 1927 ___-0.61 _ 2.44 _ 6.11 __ 9.22 _15.00 _ 19.61 _23.33 _20.28 _19.94 _ 15.33 _ 9.56 _ 2.61 __ 11.89 1928 ___ 1.11 __ 0.56 _ 3.78 __ 9.11 _15.22 _ 19.67 _24.39 _ 24.11 _ 18.17 _ 14.94 _ 8.56 _ 4.06 __ 12.00 1929 ___-0.06 _ 0.50 _ 7.28 _ 10.56 _16.50 _21.94 _24.39 _22.83 _20.78 _12.56 _ 7.89 _ 2.11 __ 12.28 1930 ___ 0.72 _ 2.78 _ 4.61 __ 9.11 _ 17.61 _23.06 _24.67 _23.11 _22.22 _ 13.11 _ 7.50 _ 1.44 __ 12.50 1931 ___ 0.44 _ 1.06 _ 4.61 _ 10.61 _16.39 _ 21.50 _25.28 _24.00 _22.39 _16.28 _11.06_ 5.00 __ 13.22 1932 ___ 6.22 _ 2.28 _ 2.94 __ 9.44 _16.67 _21.39 _24.50 _24.83 _20.83 _14.72 _ 6.61 _ 3.94 __ 12.89 1933 ___ 4.61 _ 1.17 _ 3.56 _ 10.22 _18.00 _22.44 _24.33 _23.83 _20.89 _13.39 _ 5.44 _ 0.39 __ 12.33 1934 ___ 1.50 _-6.72 _ 2.94 _ 10.17 _17.61 _23.22 _25.39 _22.22 _20.67 _12.50 _ 9.39 _ 0.78 __ 11.67 1935 ___-1.72 _-0.44 _ 6.33 __ 9.89 _15.50 _21.17 _25.11 _ 23.72 _ 18.50 _ 14.17 _ 9.22 _-1.11 __ 11.72 1936 ___-1.50 _-3.50 _ 7.33 __ 8.83 _18.00 _21.00 _24.56 _24.11 _20.11 _ 14.22 _ 5.94 _ 3.67 __ 11.89 1937 ___ 4.56 _ 1.56 _ 2.50 __ 9.78 _17.89 _22.11 _ 24.78 _ 24.78 _18.89 _13.00 _ 8.00 _ 1.89 __ 12.50 1938 ___ 0.06 _ 1.89 _ 6.78 _ 12.06 _16.00 _21.28 _24.78 _ 25.67 _18.89 _15.44 _ 9.06 _ 2.78 __ 12.89 1939 ___ 0.11 _ 2.78 _ 4.00 __ 9.06 _18.28 _22.78 _24.78 _ 25.61 _20.33 _14.06 _ 6.50 _ 2.72 __ 12.61 1940 ___-3.89 _ 0.50 _ 1.72 __ 8.22 _15.94 _21.33 _ 24.56 _ 21.89 _ 19.22 _ 12.11 _ 7.39 _ 3.56 __ 11.06 1941 ___-1.44 _-0.50 _ 2.17 _ 13.83 _18.22 _22.17 _24.33 _23.33 _21.11 _ 15.94 _10.00_ 3.50 __ 12.72 1942 ___-0.72 _-1.28 _ 6.11 _ 12.11 _18.50 _ 21.67 _24.61 _ 23.11 _ 20.17 _ 14.89 _ 8.33 _-0.50 __ 12.28 1943 ___-0.67 _ 1.44 _ 4.56 __ 7.83 _17.00 _24.56 _24.94 _24.39 _19.67 _13.17 _ 7.44 __ 0.56 __ 12.06 1944 ___ 1.06 _ 0.67 _ 3.11 __ 9.39 _19.44 _22.39 _26.33 _25.44 _21.17 _13.94 _ 7.78 _ 0.22 __ 12.56 1945 ___-3.83 _ 1.06 _10.61_ 13.11 _15.11 _ 21.61 _ 23.67 _ 23.00 _ 21.28 _13.44 _ 8.67 _-0.56 __ 12.28 1946 ___ 1.17 _-0.17 __ 9.89 _ 10.22 _16.61 _20.94 _24.11 _21.61 _ 21.00 _ 16.50 _10.28_ 3.28 __ 12.94 1947 ___ 2.89 _-1.50 _ 3.22 _ 10.28 _15.50 _20.22 _24.17 _24.44 _20.33 _17.56 _ 6.78 _ 1.11 ___ 12.11 1948 ___-3.67 _-0.72 _ 5.61 _ 10.56 _15.67 _20.78 _25.11 _ 24.00 _21.28 _13.72 _11.33_ 3.50 __ 12.28 1949 ___ 3.67 _ 3.67 _ 6.06 _ 12.11 _17.28 _23.50 _26.44 _24.83 _19.00 _17.28 _ 7.94 _ 4.11 __ 13.83 1950 ___ 5.22 _-0.22 _ 2.44 __ 9.17 _14.89 _21.28 _ 23.89 _ 22.83 _ 18.22 _15.56 _ 9.11 _ 1.67 __ 12.00 1951 ___ 2.50 _ 2.33 _ 5.28 _ 11.67 _17.39 _21.00 _24.89 _ 23.61 _20.11 _ 14.78 _ 6.39 _ 3.67 __ 12.78 1952 ___ 2.33 _ 2.33 _ 4.56 _ 12.78 _15.94 _23.11 _26.83 _23.83 _21.06 _13.17 _ 9.22 _ 3.56 __ 13.22 1953 ___ 3.11 _ 3.56 _ 6.33 _ 11.28 _17.44 _ 23.11 _25.44 _24.33 _21.33 _15.94 _ 9.83 _ 5.17 __ 13.89 1954 ___-0.67 _4.50 _ 5.33 _ 12.11 _15.44 _ 22.00 _24.83 _22.67 _19.67 _16.50 _ 8.00 _ 2.17 __ 12.72 1955 ___-0.56 _1.67 _ 5.39 _ 11.94 _18.56 _ 20.50 _27.17 _ 25.61 _ 19.89 _15.44 _ 6.83 _-1.28 __ 12.61 1956 ___ 0.00 _ 2.56 _ 3.00 _ 9.00 _14.83 _ 21.89 _ 22.72 _23.44 _18.22 _ 14.50 _ 8.17 _ 4.94 __ 11.94 1957 ___-1.94 _ 2.94 _ 5.50 _ 11.78 _17.28 _23.50 _25.39 _23.11 _20.94 _13.44 _ 9.67 _ 4.56 __ 13.00 1958 ___-0.06 _-2.56 _ 4.61 _ 11.61 _15.06 _ 19.56 _24.50 _24.00 _ 19.78 _13.06 _ 8.83 _-1.44 __ 11.39 1959 ___-0.50 _ 0.06 _ 4.50 _ 12.11 _19.11 _ 21.78 _24.61 _ 25.28 _22.39 _15.44 _ 7.67 _ 3.56 __ 13.00 1960 ___ 1.06 _ 2.39 _ 0.72 _ 12.28 _17.00 _22.11 _23.67 _23.83 _20.00 _14.50 _ 9.83 _-0.61 __ 12.22 1961 ___-2.39 _ 2.61 _ 5.28 __ 9.44 _15.50 _22.39 _25.61 _24.67 _23.11 _ 16.17 _ 9.33 _ 1.94 __ 12.83 1962 ___ 0.33 _-0.11 _ 6.17 _ 11.83 _18.06 _22.50 _23.33 _22.44 _18.28 _ 14.11 _ 6.22 _-0.28 __ 11.89 1963 ___-1.06 _-2.06 _ 6.50 _ 12.06 _16.17 _21.61 _24.67 _22.28 _ 17.28 _ 16.56 _10.22_-0.44 __ 12.00 1964 ___ 2.06 _ 0.50 _ 6.17 __ 9.83 _18.56 _22.00 _24.11 _22.72 _19.56 _ 12.78 _ 9.67 _ 2.44 __ 12.56 1965 ___-1.28 _ 1.06 _ 4.44 _ 10.33 _ 19.11 _21.17 _23.50 _ 22.89 _ 19.72 _ 14.06 _ 8.22 _ 4.72 __ 12.33 1966 ___ 0.11 _ 1.72 _ 5.94 __ 9.83 _ 16.44 _24.11 _26.50 _24.94 _19.17 _ 13.44 _ 9.39 _ 2.06 __ 12.83 1967 ___ 3.00 _-1.56 _ 3.11 __ 9.78 _ 12.89 _22.67 _24.06 _23.28 _19.28 _14.00 _ 5.83 _ 3.44 __ 11.67 1968 ___-2.94 _-1.72 _ 6.28 _ 12.78 _15.33 _20.94 _25.17 _24.44 _21.44 _15.83 _ 8.28 _ 1.28 __ 12.28 1969 ___-0.11 _ 0.33 _ 4.50 _ 13.28 _18.50 _22.83 _23.78 _25.22 _20.56 _14.28 _ 8.00 _ 0.78 __ 12.67 1970 ___-3.83 _ 0.56 _ 3.72 _ 11.17 _17.78 _ 21.61 _ 25.06 _ 25.33 _21.56 _ 14.94 _ 9.17 _ 1.33 __ 12.39 1971 ___-2.78 _ 1.72 _ 4.50 _ 10.44 _16.33 _23.44 _25.44 _24.39 _22.00 _ 17.06 _ 7.28 _ 4.89 __ 12.89 1972 ___ 1.72 _-0.33 _ 4.33 _ 10.06 _17.39 _19.94 _25.11 _ 24.22 _ 20.83 _ 11.94 _ 6.89 _ 3.61 __ 12.17 1973 ___ 1.94 _ 0.28 _ 8.00 _ 11.89 _15.28 _23.00 _25.22 _25.33 _20.83 _15.67 _ 9.06 _ 3.89 __ 13.39 1974 ___ 1.83 _-0.17 _ 5.61 _ 12.89 _ 16.11 _20.56 _ 25.11 _ 24.67 _ 19.28 _ 12.28 _ 9.00 _ 4.11 __ 12.61 1975 ___ 2.94 _ 2.11 _ 4.56 __ 8.83 _18.78 _21.39 _24.33 _ 23.56 _ 17.89 _ 15.11 _ 11.28 _ 2.17 __ 12.72 1976 ___-2.56 _ 4.39 _ 6.89 _ 12.78 _15.67 _22.89 _23.78 _23.50 _19.22 _ 11.61 _ 5.39 _ -1.17 __ 11.89 1977 ___-5.50 _ 0.83 _ 8.22 _ 12.06 _18.33 _21.22 _26.11 _ 24.28 _20.11 _12.72 _ 8.50 _ 2.06 __ 12.39 1978 ___-2.22 _-2.67 _ 3.89 _ 10.89 _16.39 _21.83 _ 23.56 _ 24.44 _18.33 _12.72 _ 8.78 _ 3.83 __ 11.67 1979 ___ 0.89 _-3.61 _ 8.28 _ 11.44 _18.50 _20.67 _24.94 _24.89 _21.39 _14.06 _11.39 _ 5.06 __ 13.17 1980 ___ 0.94 _-0.33 _ 5.11 _ 12.50 _18.67 _21.28 _26.28 _26.83 _21.56 _ 12.89 _ 7.00 _ 0.28 __ 12.78 1981 ___-3.17 _ 4.06 _ 5.72 _ 13.44 _18.22 _22.78 _25.83 _24.44 _19.78 _ 12.44 _ 8.72 _ 2.50 __ 12.89 1982 ___-3.28 _ 1.83 _ 5.56 _ 10.67 _17.83 _20.33 _25.50 _22.89 _ 20.17 _ 14.72 _10.22_ 6.00 __ 12.72 1983 ___ 1.39 _ 2.44 _ 6.67 _ 11.28 _15.67 _23.00 _26.39 _25.39 _22.11 _ 14.39 _ 9.39 _ 1.78 __ 13.33 1984 ___-1.17 _ 4.78 _ 2.61 _ 11.06 _ 16.44 _23.61 _23.72 _ 24.83 _18.83 _ 16.56 _ 8.50 _ 6.56 __ 13.06 1985 ___-1.78 _ 2.56 _ 7.67 _ 13.06 _18.50 _20.33 _24.56 _24.11 _21.39 _ 15.28 _10.00_ 1.22 __ 13.06 1986 ___ 1.17 _ 0.00 _ 7.28 _ 12.50 _18.89 _22.00 _24.44 _22.83 _19.94 _ 14.44 _ 7.61 _ 3.89 __ 12.94 1987 ___ 0.17 _ 0.67 _ 7.33 _ 11.89 _17.56 _ 22.67 _25.56 _23.44 _ 19.94 _ 12.11 _ 8.72 _ 4.17 __ 12.83 1988 ___-1.39 _ 1.67 _ 6.44 _ 10.67 _17.06 _22.11 _26.28 _ 26.00 _ 19.67 _ 11.56 _ 9.67 _ 2.17 __ 12.67 1989 ___ 3.00 _ 1.39 _ 5.78 _ 11.22 _16.72 _ 22.22 _23.89 _23.33 _20.06 _14.56 _ 7.61 _-3.39 __ 12.22 1990 ___ 5.22 _ 4.33 _ 7.28 _ 11.94 _15.67 _22.28 _24.89 _24.06 _19.72 _16.61 _10.22_ 5.89 __ 14.00 1991 ___ 1.61 _ 4.44 _ 7.00 _ 13.17 _20.39 _23.39 _25.39 _25.06 _19.72 _14.67 _ 9.06 _ 4.22 __ 14.00 1992 ___ 2.06 _ 2.44 _ 4.44 _ 10.28 _16.11 _21.28 _ 23.44 _ 22.78 _19.56 _ 12.50 _ 8.06 _ 3.28 __ 12.17 1993 ___ 2.39 _-0.67 _ 4.28 _ 11.83 _18.72 _22.94 _26.78 _25.11 _19.61 _ 13.33 _ 9.33 _ 2.94 __ 13.06 1994 ___-3.56 _-0.78 _ 4.83 _ 13.11 _16.56 _24.00 _26.33 _ 23.33 _19.78 _14.44 _11.11 _ 5.67 __ 12.89 1995 ___ 3.06 _-0.22 _ 7.22 _ 11.06 _16.61 _22.11 _ 26.22 _ 25.89 _20.17 _ 16.44 _ 6.44 _ 0.22 __ 12.94 1996 ___-0.83 _ 1.06 _ 3.83 _ 11.22 _ 16.17 _21.89 _ 23.00 _ 23.61 _ 20.00 _13.56 _ 6.11 _ 5.17 ___ 12.06 1997 ___ 0.11 _ 4.44 _ 5.50 _ 10.94 _ 15.22 _21.61 _24.33 _22.94 _ 19.44 _ 13.78 _ 6.94 _ 3.50 __ 12.39 1998 ___ 4.44 _ 4.78 _ 7.44 _ 12.22 _17.94 _20.67 _24.72 _24.83 _21.22 _14.22 _ 8.94 _ 6.22 __ 14.00 1999 ___ 1.06 _ 3.83 _ 5.83 _ 11.94 _ 17.28 _22.89 _27.44 _24.17 _20.61 _13.33 _ 10.33_ 4.44 __ 13.61 2000 ___-0.39 _ 2.94 _ 8.44 _ 10.56 _17.50 _21.83 _22.39 _22.61 _ 18.89 _13.89 _ 7.39 _-0.50 __ 12.17 2001 ___ 0.89 _ 2.17 __ 4.22 _ 12.33 _ 17.67 _22.72 _22.89 _25.94 _19.83 _14.72 _11.50 _ 6.72 __ 13.50 2002 ___ 4.39 _ 4.78 _ 6.72 _ 13.39 _ 15.94 _21.89 _26.00 _25.39 _21.22 _12.89 _ 7.78 _ 2.22 __ 13.56 2003 ___-2.50 _-1.06 _ 6.17 __ 9.89 _ 14.83 _20.17 _ 24.33 _24.83 _ 19.94 _12.83 _10.00_ 3.11 __ 11.89 2004 ___-4.06 _ 1.67 _ 6.39 _ 12.00 _18.44 _21.78 _23.61 _23.44 _ 20.72 _13.33 _ 9.00 _ 3.56 __ 12.50 2005 ___-0.39 _ 2.50 _ 4.11 _ 12.83 _14.94 _ 23.33 _25.28 _26.50 _22.94 _14.39 _ 9.78 _ 1.83 __ 13.22 2006 ___ 4.94 _ 2.06 _ 6.17 _ 13.17 _17.28 _ 21.67 _ 25.50 _24.33 _ 19.22 _13.44 _ 11.06_ 6.44 __ 13.78 2007 ___ 3.06 _-2.11 _ 5.67 _ 10.17 _ 18.44 _ 21.89 _23.89 _ 23.33 _ 21.28 _ 17.56 _ 7.44 _ 2.78 __ 12.78 2008 ___ 2.50 _ 2.11 _ 5.89 _ 12.72 _15.61 _ 23.33 _25.78 _23.22 _ 20.44 _ 12.83 _ 7.67 _ 3.39 __ 12.94 2009 ___-2.28 _ 2.61 _ 5.78 _ 12.50 _16.94 _19.72 _22.61 _ 24.28 _ 19.06 _ 12.78 _ 10.67_ 2.17 __ 12.22 2010 ___ 0.28 _ 0.61 _ 9.00 _ 14.39 _18.50 _23.72 _27.39 _25.22 _ 21.72 _ 14.50 _ 8.83 _ 0.44 __ 13.72 2011 ___-1.28 _ 2.22 _ 5.72 _ 12.39 _18.06 _22.39 _26.78 _24.06 _ 21.11 _ 13.94 _ 11.06_ 6.28 __ 13.56 2012 ___ 2.94 _ 4.94 _10.50_ 12.67 _18.39 _21.67 _26.00 _24.83 _20.44 _14.44 _ 6.61 _ 5.28 __ 14.06 2013 ___ 1.72 __ 1.06 __ 4.50 _ 11.67 _ 17.11 _22.61 _26.56 _ 23.67 _ 19.94 _ 15.67 _ 7.39 _ 3.61 __ 12.94 2014 ___-1.89 _-0.22 _ 3.17 _ 11.28 _ 17.78 _22.50 _24.50 _ 23.61 _ 20.94 _ 15.33 _ 7.39 _ 4.72 __ 12.44 2015 ___-1.17 _-4.50 _ 3.39 _ 12.39 _20.28 _21.78 _26.00 _26.11 _ 23.61 _ 14.44 _ 11.56_ 10.44__ 13.72 2016 ___ 1.39 _ 3.17 _ 9.39 _ 11.83 _ 17.11 _22.39 _25.94 _26.22 _ 22.11 _ 14.89 _ 9.89 _ 3.50 __ 14.00 2017 ___ 3.33 _ 5.33 _ 4.00 _ 14.00 _16.17 _22.22 _24.89 _23.33 _ 21.39 _17.83 _ 8.11 __ 0.78 __ 13.50 2018 ___-0.17 _ 5.56 _ 4.50 __ 9.72 _ 19.39 _22.06 _25.33 _25.61 _21.50 _14.28 _ 6.89 _ 4.50 __ 13.28 2019 ___ 0.28 _ 2.33 _ 5.39 _ 13.06 _ 16.78 _22.06 _26.44 _24.17 _21.33 _15.50 _ 6.61 _ 3.50 __ 13.11 2020 ___ 3.94 _ 4.50 _ 8.89 _ 10.22 _ 15.72_23.17 _26.67 _ 24.94 _20.44 _14.39 _11.67 _ 4.00 __14.06 2021 ___ 1.56 __ 1.22 __ 7.67 _ 12.56 _ 17.17_ 23.50 _24.44 _25.28_ 21.28 _16.67 _ 7.89 _ 6.56 __ 13.83 2022 ___ -0.94 _ 2.94 _7.39 _ 11.56 _ 17.78_ 21.89_ 26.39 _ 26.28 _20.83 _13.83 _ 10.50 _ 3.61 __13.50 2023 ___ 6.39 _ 5.06 _ 7.00 1981-2010 averages _0.39 _1.83 _5.83 _11.72 _16.89 _21.94 _24.72 _24.00_20.00 _13.83 _ 8.72 _3.06 __ 12.72 avgs F ___32.6 _ 35.3 _ 42.5 _ 53.1 _ 62.4 __ 71.5 _ 76.5 __ 75.2 _ 68.0 __ 56.9 _ 47.7 _ 37.5 ___ 54.9 1991-2020 averages _0.94 _2.17 _6.00 _12.06 _17.33 _22.22 _25.28 _24.50_20.67 _14.39 _8.89 _3.94 __ 13.11 avgs F ___33.7 _ 35.9 _ 42.8 _ 53.7 _ 63.2 __ 72.0 _ 77.5 __ 76.1 _ 69.2 __ 57.9 _ 48.0 _ 39.1 ___ 55.6 . LONGEST INTERVALS of ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURES (in specified intervals) 1869 to 1900: ** 3 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages just once before 1900 (Dec 1889 to Feb 1890) ** 4 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages also once (Dec 1897 to Mar 1898) ** 4 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages from August to November 1900 **** 5 months July to November 1900 if we add on July 1900, a month that was above average then (within 0.1F of 1981-2010) 1901 to 1930: ** 3 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages just once May to July 1908 ** 6 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages twice, May to Oct 1906 and May to Oct 1908 **** 10 months May 1908 to Feb 1909 were above normal relative to that period, only Nov 1908 was below recent normals. 1931 to 1960: ** 8 months warmer than (Aug equal to) 1981-2010 averages July 1931 to Feb 1932 and ** 6 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages Sep 1931 to Feb 1932 ** 6 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages May to Oct 1939 and also May 1944 to Oct 1944 ** 10 months warmer than 1981-2010 (8 of them warmer than 1991-2020) Nov 1948 to Aug 1949 ** 8 months warmer than 1981-2010 (7 of them warmer than 1991-2020) May to Dec 1953 ... **** 14 months Nov 1952 to Dec 1953 all warmer than 1931-60 averages (Apr was not warmer than 1981-2010). 1961 to 1990: ** 6 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages June to Nov 1961 ** 8 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages (6 warmer than 1991-2020) June 1973 to Jan 1974 ** 7 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages (5 warmer than 1991-2020) July 1979 to Jan 1980 ** 7 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages Sep 1982 to Mar 1983 (6 warmer than 1991-2020 Oct 1982 to Mar 1983) ** 6 months equal to or warmer than 1991-2020 averages June to November 1983 (one month, Oct 1983, was equal to those) 1991 to 2023: ** 11 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages Oct 1990 to Aug 1991 ** 15 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages July 1998 to Sep 1999 (two equal to those averages, July 1998 and March 1999) ** 7 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages Oct 2001 to April 2002 ** 8 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages Mar to Oct 2010 (9 mo warmer than 1981-2010 incl Nov 2010) ** 14 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages Apr 2011 to May 2012 (the last seven Nov 2011 to May 2012 warmer than 1991-2020) ** 20 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages July 2015 to Feb 2017 ... May 2016 and Dec 2016 were not warmer than 1991-2020 **** 10 months warmer than 1991-2020 averages July 2015 to Apr 2016 (and six more June to Nov 2016) ** 8 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages June 2020 to Jan 2021 (six of these warmer than 1991-2020) ** 10 months warmer than 1981-2010 averages July 2022 to Apr 2023 (assuming Apr 2023 stays warm enough) and eight are likely to be above 1991-2020 but the longest string of consecutive above normal relative to 1991-2020 will be four Jan to Apr 2023. ======================================== On the flip side, the longest runs of months below 1981-2010 normal values are these (in chronological order): 23 months Feb 1874 to Dec 1875 21 months Aug 1885 to Apr 1887 18 months July 1892 to Dec 1893 16 months Oct 1925 to Jan 1927 13 months Nov 1939 to Nov 1940 10 months Oct 1977 to July 1978 (9 months Mar 1992 to Nov 1992) 10 months Nov 1995 to Aug 1996 although 13 to Nov 1996 not above normal (Sep on the 1981-2010 average) 9 months Mar 1997 to Nov 1997 Since then, the longest interval of below 1981-2010 average months is only five Oct 2002 to Feb 2003 and since then four (Apr to July 2003, and Jan to Apr 2014). The longest intervals colder than 1991-2020 averages are sometimes the same as the above list except that Apr 1871 to Dec 1873 had no month warmer but one month (July 1872) equal. That would be 33 months. Some of the other members of the above list fall between months that were above 1991-2020 normals as well as 1981-2010. except for July 1892 on, which encounters months not warmer than 1991-2020 normals until July 1895 (36 months), however March 1894 was equal to the 1991-2020 average; also July 1925 to Jan 1927 were all below 1991-2020 (19 months) . Sep 1939 to Mar 1941 (19 months) were all below 1991-2020 averages. Jan 1958 to Mar 1959 (did not qualify above) were all below 1991-2020 averages (15 months) Aug 1977 to Feb 1979 (also not represented above) had 19 months below 1991-2020 averages. (three were above 1981-2010 averages) Nov 2013 to Apr 2014 were below 1991-2020 averages. Since then the longest interval not above 1991-2020 averages is only four months Apr to July 2017 and this includes June equal to the average. The 2001-2030 normals are likely to be 0.3 F or more above the 1991-2020 averages.

If the absolute dry spell ends today at NYC, then April 2-14 (13 days) is the longest stretch with zero total rainfall (or traces) in April since 2012 (15 days Apr 3-17, 2012) and counting those with some days in April, since 2015 with 23 days (Apr 23 to May 15, 2015). A slightly longer but similarly timed dry spell was 26 days from Apr 22 to May 17, 2001. I find that about 20% of all Aprils have a ten-day absolute dry spell and another 15% have a ten-day or longer interval with less than 0.01" every two days. An example of the latter type occurred last year (Apr 20 to May 1, 2022 had .02" on Apr 26). The longest absolute dry spell within April was 20 days in 1942 (Apr 11 to Apr 30) and that dry spell added five more days May 1-5. April 3 to 21 1976 (19 days) April 6 to 23 1977 (18 days) were second and third longest. Other years with a dry spell similar to this year would be 1968 (9th to 21st) and 1971 (8th to 20th), as well as 1910 (7th to 16th, but an earlier spell of 14 days March 21 to Apr 3 was separated from the second dry spell by only 0.19" of rain April 4-6, and in fact the total rainfall from March 8 to April 16 1910 was only 0.31" and this was quite a warm period too with some highs near 80 F. The very warm spell in mid-April of 1896 had a 13-day dry spell from April 8 to 20, then after 0.23" fell 21st-22nd, another dry spell ran from Apr 23 to May 2 and it stayed quite dry until a three-day heat wave in May, even after that normal amounts of rain only returned in very late stages of May. And in 1877 it was dry from 3rd to 17th (15 days) while 1887 matched this year (2nd to 14th).

Record high minimum at NYC of 70F broke existing 2019 record by 10 (that one only increased the 1896/2014 tied record by one). A 10-degree jump in a record high is fairly unusual. I was able to run a program on my NYC data base and found there were only 15 jumps of 10 or more degrees in the current (366 daily) record high minima and only nine of those larger than 10 degrees. This list also contains five jumps of 10 or more that occurred before the eventual final record was set. This study requires a protocol that highest value 1869-1900 is a "starter" record and subsequent records are increases (if any) on that, which removes a lot of trivial cases from early in the data set. Incr __ Date ______ New record hi min __ Previous __ status +15 _ Jan 4 ________ 59 1950 __________ 44 1933 ___ 1950 final value +13 _ Mar 21 _______ 55 1903 __________ 42 1890/94_ 2012 57F final value +13 _ Dec 27 _______ 57 1949 __________ 44 1881 ___ 1949 final value +13 _ Jan 16 _______ 53 1995 __________ 40 1974* __ 1995 final value +13 _ Dec 24 ______ 63 2015 __________ 50 1931 ___ 2015 final value +12 _ Jan 12 _______ 56 1932 __________ 44 1898 ___ 1932 final value +12 _ Feb 16 _______ 56 2023 __________44 2002 ___ 1932 final value +11 _ Oct 25 _______ 69 1908 __________ 58 1900*___ 1908 final value +11 _ May 3 _______ 67 1913 ___________ 56 1910*___ 2018 70F final value +11 _ Jan 13 _______ 55 1932 __________ 44 1892 ___ 1932 final value +11 _ Jan 27 _______ 53 1916 __________ 42 1911 ____ 1916 final value +10 _ Mar 20 ______ 56 1903 __________ 46 1898 ____ 1948 57F final value +10 _ Apr 8 ________ 65 1929 __________ 55 1922 ____ 1991 66F final value +10 _ May 6 _______ 71 1930 ___________ 61 1909 ____ 1930 final value +10 _ Dec 29 ______ 55 1984 __________ 45 1905*____ 1984 final value +10 _ Feb 23 ______ 55 1985 __________ 45 1943 ____ 1985 final value +10 _ Dec 22 ______ 58 1990 __________ 48 1949 ____ 2013 61F final value +10 _ Feb 5 ________ 51 1991 __________ 41 1943 ____ 1991 final value +10 _ Apr 7 ________ 63 1991 __________ 53 1954 ____ 1991 final value +10 _ Apr 14 _______ 70 2023 __________ 60 2019 ___ 2023 final value ________________ note there are no cases of a 10+ rise in high minimum record values May 7 to Oct 24 inclusive. * these years had earlier tied values ==================== There are a few larger increases in record high maxima. This is the same format for a list of increases of 12 or more in record high maxima (note April 7 has two of them): +17 _ Mar 21 _______ 84 1921 ___________ 67 1919 ___ 1921 final value +17 _ Mar 25 _______ 75 1910 ___________ 58 1904*___1963 (79F) final value +16 _ Jan 27 _______ 69 1916 ___________ 53 1880 ___ 1916 final value +16 _ Feb 25 _______ 75 1930 ___________ 59 1912 ___ 1930 final value +15 _ Mar 13 _______ 85 1990 ___________ 70 1929 ___ 1990 final value +14 _ Mar 14 _______ 70 1903 ___________ 56 1879 ___ 1946 (75F) final value +14 _ Apr 7 _________ 89 1929 __________ 75 1908 ___ 2010 (92F) final value +14 _ Jan 15 _______ 67 1932 ___________ 53 1928 ___ 1932 final value +14 _ Feb 4 ________ 68 1991 ___________ 54 1883 ___ 1991 final value +13 _ Apr 7 _________ 62 1904 __________ 75 1908 ___ 2010 (92F) final value +13 _ Apr 1 _________ 83 1917 ___________ 70 1893 ___ 1917 final value +12 _ Jan 26 _______ 72 1950 ___________ 60 1916 ___ 1950 final value +12 _ Apr 12 ________ 90 1977 ___________ 78 1947 ___ 1977 final value note: all of these occur before April 13 in the calendar year. increases in records, while frequent, are usually on the order of 1-3 F deg in summer. The largest increase late in the year was +11 Nov 1 1950 (84F) from 73F 1927 and 1929. _______________________________________________ Not that many "starter" records have survived to the present time. Sep 7 1881 is probably the one with the largest supremacy over all later readings (101F vs 93F in 1919).

Before I answer that, please note, the post you quoted was edited later and the number of records so far in 2023 should read 2.83 high maxima and 4.33 high minima (it was reading 2.33 high minima), So if today also sets records the count might be 3.83 and 5.33. Those are both ahead of the pace for breaking 9.17 (2001) and 12.92 (2015) which are the highest numbers of held records for any years (both of those were two higher after the years ended so they have lost or tied a few records to reduce the count). As for 2010, its count was 3,5 for high maxima and 4.25 for high minima so not a particularly high yield for recent years, 2000 has held on to all the count that it had for high maxima and lost one record high minimum to 2011, as well as seeing a one-third share of another reduced to a quarter when 2015 piled on. So its count was 5.33 at the end of 2010, and is now 4.25. If there was no warming trend or urban heat island you would expect each year to retain about 2 of each of these records but the average is closer to 5 in recent decades (and the earlier years especially before 1910 have lost most of the ones they had). So 2010 is only about middle of the pack for retained record highs of either kind. It is similar to the past four (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022). 2017 and 2018 were more productive. This is the number of records held by every year since 1990 ... actually the count adjusted for ties, the number of records including ties would be a bit higher. YEAR ______ Hi max _ Hi min __ Low max _ Low min 1990 __________ 7.83 ______ 6.5 _________2.0 ______ 1.5 ______ 1991 __________ 8.5 _______ 8.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 ______ 1992 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.5 _________2.2 ______ 0.0 _____ 1993 __________ 5.0 _______ 3.0 _________0.0 ______ 2.0 _____ 1994 __________ 1.33 ______ 0.0 _________2.0 ______ 3.0 _____ 1995 __________ 2.0 _______ 4.5 _________0.0 ______ 0.25 ____ 1996 __________ 2.0 _______ 3.0 _________1.2 ______ 1.0 ______ 1997 __________ 3.0 _______ 0.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.33 ____ 1998 __________ 7.0 _______ 6.5 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 ______ 1999 __________ 3.58 ______3.5 _________0.0 ______ 0.5 ______ 2000 __________ 3.5 _______ 4.0 _________3.5 ______ 0.0 _____ 2001 __________ 9.17 ______2.83 ________0.0 ______ 0.5 ______ 2002 __________ 4.0 _______ 9.0 ________ 0.0 ______ 0.5 _____ 2003 __________ 1.0 _______ 0.0 _________1.17 _____ 0.17 _____ 2004 __________ 0.0 _______ 0.0 _________0.33 _____ 0.5 ____ 2005 __________ 2.0 _______ 5.5 _________1.0 ______ 0.0 _____ 2006 __________ 3.5 _______ 4.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 ____ 2007 __________ 3.0 _______ 2.0 _________2.0 ______ 0.0 ____ 2008 __________ 3.0 _______ 3.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 ____ 2009 __________ 2.0 _______ 2.5 _________2.33 _____ 0.0 ___ 2010 __________ 3.5 _______ 4.25 ________0.0 ______ 0.0 ___ 2011 __________ 3.5 _______ 6.0 _________0.0 ______ 0.0 ____ 2012 __________ 2.0 _______ 5.0 _________0.25 _____ 0.0 ___ 2013 __________ 2.0 _______ 4.0 _________1.5 ______ 0.0 ____ 2014 __________ 0.0 _______ 1.5 _________0.0 ______ 1.0 ____ 2015 __________ 6.0 _______12.92 _______0.5 ______ 1.0 ____ 2016 __________ 3.0 _______ 3.5 _________0.0 ______ 1.0 ___ 2017 __________ 3.33 ______12.67 ______ 0.25 _____ 2.0 ___ 2018 __________ 3.0 _______ 9.75 _______ 0.0 ______ 0.0 ___ 2019 __________ 1.0 _______ 1.0 _________ 1.5 ______ 2.5 ____ 2020 __________ 4.5 _______ 5.5 _________0.0 ______ 2.0 ___ 2021 __________ 2.0 _______ 5.0 _________1.5 ______ 0.0 ____ 2022 ___________3.0 _______5.0 _________ 1.0 ______ 0.0 ___ 2023 __________ 3.83 ______5.33 _______ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ (to Apr 14) (post edited after 14th added 1 and 1 to 2023, taking away 1 from 2019 (previous record high minimum). (the previous record high maximum was not in this list, it was in 1941)

NYC records today include max 90F (former record 88F 1977) and min 67F (former record 61F 1945, it was 60F in 1977 and 2018). NYC has now set more daily records than most recent years at this stage, and is on pace to finish in the top ten of records held (I had a post earlier listing the top contenders for that). The count so far is 2.83 record highs and 4.33 record high minima. The records for surviving records now on the books are 9.17 record high maxima (2001) and 12.92 record high minima (2015). 2017 was a bit higher than 2015 for record high minima until 2023 took a half share away yesterday (it was 13.17 and is now 12.67). 2015 has already lost 2.0 from the 14.92 count it had at end of its run.

In the NYC records, the earliest minimum of 70+ was 74F on April 17, 2002. A value of 70F on April 18, 1976 was broken by 76F on April 18th, 2002. These are the only three minima at NYC in the 70s in April. The closest to them would be the 69F records for April 16, 2002 and Apr 28, 1990 and 2009. There were 70+ minima May 3-4 2018 (70F, 72F) and the latter of those broke a record of 71F from May 4, 2001, but in terms of an early 70+ reading before 1976, that would be 71F on May 6, 1930.

That record high windspeed on Mount Washington was in an east-southeast gale with a coastal storm moving slowly north, here's a link to a map for the date: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1934&maand=04&dag=13&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref Not surprised it was windy but gusts to 231 mph? Don't think one would guess that high from the map. Top of MWN is 6288' (I climbed it once from the base of the cog railway so I recall that factoid), making it around the 800-850 mb level of the atmosphere. When if ever do you see 231 mph 850 mb winds? Well I believe the report, just anomalously high, a lot of windstorms come and go up there from the other direction, peaking around 120 mph.

Some other records and other readings to add to Don's earlier list: Pierre SD 94F (old record 84F 1968) Huron SD 92F (old record 84F 1931) Mitchell SD 90F (old record 89F 1968) Mobridge SD 90F (old record 88F 1911) Hettinger ND 89F (records not shown) Miles City MT 88F (old record 84F 1949) Rapid City (A) 87F (old record 85F 1985) Sioux Falls SD 87F (record 88F 1985 survived) Dickinson ND 83F (record 81F 1949) MSP MN 81F (record 83F 1949, 1968 survived) _ zero snow on ground now Williston ND 80F (records not shown) Glasgow MT 80F (record 83F 1949 survived) Minot ND 72F (record 81F 1949) _ late afternoon, probably most snow gone by then __________ meanwhile held down by snow cover Bismarck ND 58F _ at 6 p.m., snow cover reduction overcoming diurnal cooling Jamestown ND 54F _ at 5:20 p.m., same as above Fargo ND 54F Aberdeen SD 49F _ deeper snow cover in region Grand Forks ND 43F

Todd bin readin my thread on Central/Western forum. I was going to post that info, generally speaking in the 90s all over SD except over that remnant of the long-duration winter snow pack. In ND the contrast is similar, from 88F in southwest to low 40s in eastern sections. The warmth is being pumped up by a low that gave my location over 1.5" of rain in past 24h, leading to some minor flooding with combined rain and snow melt. Snow around here was 2-3 feet a few weeks ago, has been largely eliminated by this rainfall below our elevation and reduced to a foot or so outside town here, still 2 feet in the alpine though. I would say your temperatures are likely to be 86F tomorrow, 91F on Thursday, 93F on Friday, 77-82F on Saturday and Sunday with more cloud and thundershowers around and a more noticeable sea breeze in places, and falling back to 60s on Monday. Looks like a fairly active cold front for late Sunday there. If you took a 1941-1977 blend for a long-range forecast that would say very warm most of the spring and early summer, not as hot by mid to late August, resumed warmth in September and parts of October. Both 1941 and 1977 were near record warm in parts of May, June and July.

Amazing temperature difference today, 91F at Huron SD and 43F at Aberdeen SD a few miles further north, almost entirely due to snow pack which has now been removed from all but northeast corner of SD and most of eastern two thirds of ND. Also currently 88F in southwest ND and mostly 40s in eastern ND. KBIS has lost about half its snow pack which was 18" earlier on the weekend. The same effects are evident in the southern prairies, where we find low 70s in border regions of SK and mid to high 30s in s MB. Rain has turned to wet snow here and we ended up with about 1.5" of rain, local creeks produced some minor flooding and are running near flood stage still. Snow line in this region has receded up to 2500' elevation from 1500' a few days ago (Columbia River valley is at about 1200' locally and was snow free in mid-March).

Updated anomalies and projections: _____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA 11th __ (anom 10d) _________+4.8 _+3.4 _+1.3 __ +3.7 _+2.4 _+0.4 __-2.2 _-3.6 _-4.0 21st __ (anom 20d) ________ +6.8 _+7.2 _+4.5 __ +6.8 _+1.9 _-0.3 __ +1.3 _-0.8 _-5.2 11th __ (p anom 20d) _______+9.0 _+8.0 _+6.0 __ +7.0 _+8.0 _+6.0 __+2.0 _ 0.0 _-1.5 11th __ (p anom 27d) _______ +7.0 _+6.0 _+5.0 __ +5.5 _+6.0 _+4.5 __+2.0 _+0.5_-2.0 21st __ (p anom 30d) _______+3.5 _+4.0 _+2.0 __ +3.0 _+0.5 __0.0 __ +2.0 __0.0 _-2.5 30th __ (final anoms) ______ +3.9 _+3.9 _+2.2 __ +2.0 _+0.3 _-1.9 ___ 0.0 _+1.1 _-2.8 ==================== 11th _ Looks very warm mid-month in most locations, last week of outlook not as warm but still above normal in most cases. 21st _ Rest of month looks rather cool except for a strong warming signal in the far west after the weekend. 30th-1st _ Final anomalies now posted.

2022-23 Snowfall Contest current standings Rank _FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total and departure _01 _ Scotty Lightning*___________16.0 _23.0 _ 33.0 __ 44.1 _37.5 _ 81.9 ___ 65.9__5.9 _ 84.0 ____ 391.3 __ 163.3 (53.9) _02 _ hudsonvalley21 ____________13.2 _ 29.3 _ 46.2 __ 42.8 _44.0 _ 90.0 __ 48.7 _ 8.2 _96.3 ____ 418.7 __ 170.5 (43.8) _03 _ so_whats_happening ______ 18.0 _38.0 _ 64.0 __ 45.0 _380_ 110.0 __ 42.0 _11.0 _ 84.0 ____ 450.0 __ 175.2 (30.5) _04 _ RodneyS ___________________ 7.4 _ 33.0 _ 50.0 __ 44.0 _48.0 _ 93.0 __ 46.0 _ 7.0 _ 98.0 ____ 426.4 __ 179.8 (44.6) (05) ____ Consensus _____________16.0 _40.0 _ 55.5 __ 44.1 _ 49.9 _ 93.7 __ 50.0 _ 8.2 _ 90.0 ____ 447.4 __ 191.4 (39.9) _05 _ DonSutherland1 ____________10.0 _36.0 _ 55.0 __ 45.8 _52.5 _ 95.0 __ 44.0 _ 7.0_ 100.0 ____ 445.3 __ 198.7 (44.6) _06 _ Roger Smith _______________22.2 _44.4 _ 55.5 __ 55.5 _66.6_ 133.0 __ 52.0 _15.9 _ 88.8 ____ 533.9 __ 199.3 (0.6) _07 _ RJay _______________________20.0 _50.0 _ 65.0 __ 31.0 _27.0 _ 86.0 ___ 50.0 _15.0 _ 80.0 ____ 424.0 __ 203.6 (57.7) _08 _ wxdude64 _________________19.5 _40.0 _ 58.5 __ 42.8 _50.5 _101.0 ___ 41.6 _ 8.7 _ 104.0 ____466.6 __ 210.6 (39.9) _09 _ Tom _______________________ 14.2 _ 41.1 _ 49.6 __ 53.9 _ 49.9 _ 93.7 __ 79.2 _ 6.7 _ 81.2 ____ 469.5 __ 216.3 (41.3) _10 _ BKViking ___________________ 25.0 _52.0 _ 60.0 __ 38.0 _50.0 _90.0 __ 60.0 _18.0_ 90.0 ____ 483.0 __ 234.4 (43.6) _11 _ George001 _________________ 12.0 _62.0_105.0__ 65.0 _70.0_140.0__ 60.0 _ 8.0_ 130.0____ 652.0 __ 316.2 actual snowfall to Apr 29, 2023 __0.4 __ 2.3 __12.4 __ 20.2 __37.1 __133.6 ___48.9 _ 8.1 _ 72.8 ____ 335.8 total Current best forecast ____________(04) __(01) __(01) ___(07) __(01) __ (06) ___(02)_(02,11)_ (07) (01 Scotty Lightning has three, (02) hudsonvalley21 has two, (07) RJay has two, (04) RodneyS and (06) Roger Smith have one, and George001 is tied for one with hudsonvalley21 (SEA). Lowest forecasts are best at all but DTW, BUF and SEA. ====================================== (Mar 4) _ All forecasts are still above actual values for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD and DTW as well as BTV. One forecast is now equal to current total at DEN, otherwise the rest are still above the current value. BUF has passed all but two forecasts (Roger Smith 133.0, George001 has 140.0). SEA has a bit more than half the forecasts, and is between George001 (8.0") and hudsonvalley21 (8.2") with other higher forecasts. The table now contains the total error value which in most cases is subject to later decreases, but for those already passed by BUF or SEA, new snowfall will increase these values. NOTE: BUF now has no contest implications, further snow will not change differentials, except for myself and George001. I can gain 16.4" (twice my reserve of 8.2") but that would only move my rank (8th) closer to 7th. George001 is too far back to benefit much from further snow at BUF. Probably DEN is the most volatile location for changing ranks. The more reserve you have for DEN, the higher your potential to move ahead -- but that snow has to happen. Seems unlikely that the four northeast locations or Chicago will pass any forecasts, but DTW could still be a factor. Looks as though Scotty Lightning has the edge, he needs less than 1.0" more at DEN to pass so_whats_happening and then would have a bigger reserve than any chasers, except Tom, and his margin over Tom at DEN would not reverse the outcome. Unless there are very heavy snowfalls later in March at other locations, I think DEN will determine the outcome. (Mar 11) _ DTW has now passed RJay and is gradually approaching our cluster near consensus. As a result RJay fell from 5th to 7th. No change at the top because DEN has seen no new snow since last report. (Mar 16) _ BUF has now reached the second highest forecast (Roger Smith) so I cannot gain any further ground, a combination of that plus more snow at DTW moved me into 7th and RJay into 8th, otherwise no changes in the scoring order. Scotty awaits any further snow at DEN to move ahead of so_whats_happening who also has 0.5" more to use up as both of our leaders find DTW about to pass them. The net result would be that if DTW does pass both, Scotty will need about 1.8" more at DEN to pass swh. If nothing else changed by then, Scotty has the same forecast for BTV and appears in good shape otherwise. (Mar 20) _ DEN added 1.5" snow which moved Scotty Lightning into the lead. If DTW adds a small amount then so_whats_happening could retake the lead unless DEN adds similar amounts. BUF has moved past all but George001 now, but the margin for further gain is only 6.7"x2 or 13.4" which is not enough to change any contest ranks. (Mar 28) _ DEN added a further 3.6" and BTV 0.3" in the past week. This has led to a few changes in the contest ranks. Meanwhile, the table is now ordered by contest ranks instead of following the forecast table. The contest is not settled yet. Further snowfall at DTW could move hudsonvalley21 into the lead. However, Scotty Lightning retains more DEN snowfall to use up if the total exceeds 48.7" (hudsonvalley21's prediction). RodneyS also has some potential for gain at DTW, but he cannot pass hudsonvalley21 unless about 9" more falls there. Large late season falls at BTV could also help hudsonvalley21 and RodneyS, as SL and s_w_h have equal forecasts of 84.0", albeit 12" above the current total there, so that advantage would only begin to materialize after 12" more might occur (not too likely from climatology or current model runs). Also RodneyS and hudsonvalley21 have to avoid larger snowfalls at DEN in April or May, as SL has a margin of over 15" and they have recently, or will soon run out of margin there. Meanwhile so_whats_happening has one faint hope left, which would be April snow at SEA combined with no further snow anywhere else in play (BUF would not matter). I don't see any route to a contest win for those below fourth place although there are mathematical possibilities (that likely will not verify) mostly involving very heavy April snowfalls in the midwest. (Apr 4) _ Small additions at BUF and BTV, DEN may add today and tomorrow but not yet changed in table. (Apr 11) _ DEN added 0.2" otherwise no changes. Any further changes to table will appear here. (Apr 21) _ ORD added 0.4" otherwise no changes. (Apr 29) _ DEN added 2.0" recently and ORD, DTW added 0.1" _ no contest rank changes.

Rapid snow melt underway now, visible satellite shows bare ground in eastern MT and western ND and temps currently 77 F, snow remains over central and eastern ND, northeast SD, temps near 40 F. Further west, rain across parts of WA state into southeast BC, at my location current weather rain, dense fog and 47F. Snow melt here has increased from gradual to moderately fast and creeks are near bankfull status. Would imagine a lot of the snow removal over Dakotas is evaporation (sublimation) rather than runoff but even so, rivers will collect the equivalent of 1-2" of liquid and with ice jam potential some flooding may occur on smaller rivers soon. I was reading elsewhere that winter wheat crop in southern/central plains is largely a failure due to drought. While it has been cold and snowy further north, March and early April in western KS bone dry and more variable in temperatures.

Yes except for that brief cold shot around May 8-10 with snow in parts of the northeast U.S. (trace at NYC 9th). Despite that it was very warm in May also, otherwise.

With more warmth appearing on the charts, I have taken my first graphic (days of 75+ April 1-15) and edited it to days of 80+ and continued that to end of the month. Daily records are in bold type. 1. ............................................ 83 1917 .............................................. 82 1978 .................................................... 2. ...................................................................................80 1963 81 1967.............................................................. 3. ........................................................................................................................81 1981 ........................................ 4. .............80 1892..................................................................................................................................................... 5. .................................................80 1928................................................................................................................... 6. .................................................................................................................................................................. 80 2023. 7. .....................................................89 1929 ...82 1942........................................ 87 1991...............92 2010........... 8. .85 1871 .......................................88 1929 ...........83 1959 ..............................90 1991. 80 1999 80 2010 ........ 9. .83 1871 ..............................................................................................................86 1991....................82 2013........ 10. .80 1871 .................................86 1922 ...................................................................................................................... 11. ................ 78 1887 .................80 1922 ................ 84 1955 ........................................................... 81 2011 80 2017.. 12. ...................................................................................................................90 1977.....80 1996.......................84 2023 13. .....................................................................81 1945 ..........82 1968.......(88 1977)............................82 2018. 90 2023 14. ......80 1880 ..........................................(85 1941) 83 1945 ...............................................................................91 2023...... 15. ...................................................84 1938 87 1941 ......83 1960.........................................82 2002 81 2003 80 2006 .... 16. ....................... 87 1896........................... 80 1941...................................82 1976.............92 2002.88 2003.88 2012 87 2017.. 17. ........................88 1896................................................80 1959 ..............91 1976..............96 2002.................................... 18. .......................90 1896................................................81 1963 86 1964 .96 1976................91 2002.....84 2008 .............. 19. .............81 1886.80 1891.80 1909 82 1914 81 1915.........86 1972 80 1973..92 1976.88.1985 84 1994 .89 2002 .85 2004.80 2019. 20. ......................................82 1915 83 1923.90 1927..85 1938 80 1941.82 1952 80 1963 89 1976............87 2005 83 2006 ......... 21. ................................................................87 1923...81 1936....85 1957 ...............................83 1985..81 1996 ...................... 22. .................81 1885,86......84 1902..........82 1926.... 80 1952 80 1960 .86 1962,1973....85 1977 85 1985..86 2001.82 2004.. 23. ..................84 1886.........83 1902 ..........84 1925..................................83 1973 .81 1979,1990 .85 1996 80 2001..86 2007......... 24. ..................83 1886.......................................................80 1942.81 1957.....................81 1992 80 1994....87 2001 .80 2011.. 25. .....80 1872 ......86 1895...82 1913..91 1915 .............86 1939 ....... 87 1960 82 1961 84 1962....82 1982 ............88 2009... 26. .....83 1872............................................80 1925.........84 1942................80 1969 821970....80 1985.................92 2009... 27. ..................................................92 1915............83 1935 ................91 1962 .84 1969 ...............91 1990........... 84 2009 .... 28. .80 1870........................80 1935 89 1938..84 1956 80 1957 89 1962.86 1969 80 1974 85 1983 82 1986.90 1990.80 2003.90 2009.85 2017,21. 29. ...................83 1888........82 1903........................81 1938 .......84 1951 .....80 1962. 89 1974..80 1983 ..................85 2017........ 30. ...........................80 1901.82 1903.80 1910........86 1941 91 1942 .80 1944 .80 1965 .......84 1985..................80 2007 ....... ________________________________________________________________ Based on temps at Toronto (90) and Providence RI (80), 22nd 1842 was possibly at least 85F. Flow was westerly. Between the two record highs in 1915, 26th had a max of 72F. 1896 was a year that could not hold on to significant heat wave records. May 9-11 (91, 92, 91) have all been overtaken as well. Then in August, 17th to 22nd lost all of these: 97, 95, 98, 94, 96, 93. The only record held is 72F on Nov 27, but 70 on Nov 17th and 69 on Nov 28 have also been lost. About half a dozen other less impressive records in Feb, June and Apr-May have also been lost. A shift of a few days in either direction, and many of those lost records would still be on the books. Another lost heat wave was 89F, 89F on May 2,3 1913. DISTRIBUTION OF 80+ DAYS IN APRIL 1869-1900 (32 yr) _ 20 1901-1930 _________ 25 1931-1960 _________ 33 1961-1990 _________ 46 1991-2020 _________ 46 2021,22,23 __________ 5

The adjustment of the NYC high means that 1912 no longer retains any share of the ten record highs it set (relative to 1869 to 1911). It was holding on to a 0.33 count of surviving highs for a long time. The other two years removed yesterday (1921, 1947) still have record counts of 2.5 and 2.0 counting ties. Those years also set a lot of records that have since been overtaken. If we allow 1869 to 1900 to be a "starter era" and automatically hold records from the highest values, and then take whatever new records came along after that, only four years failed to set new record highs (at NYC). Those were 1958, 1992, 2004 and 2014. Although every year before 1958 set records by those rules, of the 89 years 1869 to 1957, 30 have gone "extinct" like 1912 just did, but all of those 30 are before 1927, and all but two (1924, 1926) are before 1913. After 1958, the first year to fail to produce a record high, as mentioned three other years failed (1992, 2004, 2014), and just two (1968, 1978) have gone extinct. 1968 dropped out on Nov 29, 1990, and 1978 lasted only to Dec 4, 1982. The four "fail" years were effectively blocked from holding records on these dates (when the last of their actual highs was prevented from reaching record status) ... 1958 was done by Oct 10 1939. 1992 was blocked by May 23 1964. 2004 and 2014 were both blocked by Nov 25 1979. The first year to go extinct was 1909 which was done on Feb 19, 1930. 1877 lasted to Feb 12, 1932. By the time 1958 failed to set a record, 1904 had also left the tables (out on Feb 7, 1938). 1869 (extinct Aug 1955), 1878 (extinct April 1946), and 1893 (extinct August 1943) were done also before 1958. From 1961 to 2017 all the other extinctions occurred (before 1912 yesterday). Many of them were around 1990 when this warmer climate era set in. The most recent extinction before 1912 was 1906 leaving the tables on May 18, 2017. These years with only one record left are in some danger of going extinct later in 2023 or in 2024 with only one record or a tied share of one record (which one goes first? lay your bets, it could be none of these if some year with several records runs into a hot spell that takes away consecutive records): 1922 ___ 1.0 share of Apr 10 (86F) _ probably not this year 1942 ___ 1.0 share of Apr 30 (91F) _ closest call so far was 84F in 1985 (1942 broke 86F from 1941) 1957 ___ 1.0 share of June 17 (96F) _ although it broke 95F (1952) warmest since has been only 91F (1962 and 2017) 1943 ___ 0.5 share of June 25 (99F) _ tied with 1952 which has two other records 1934 ___ 1.0 share of June 29 (101F) _ probably not in a lot of danger 1913 ___ 0.33 share of Aug 18 (94F) _ one of the weakest records in the books (1987, 2002 share) 2019 ___ 1.0 share of Oct 2 (93F) _ seems fairly safe, only one October day in 1941 was warmer 1897 ___ 1.0 share of Oct 16 (87F) _ brushed off 83s from 1958 and 1963. 2003 ___ 1.0 share of Nov 3 (79F) _ closest approach since established was 74F in 2017. 1879 ___ 1.0 share of Nov 12 (76F) 1896 ___ 1.0 share of Nov 27 (72F) 1899 ___ 0.5 share of Dec 19 (58F) _ another weak record, shared with 1931 which has plenty of others 1965 ___ 1.0 share of Dec 31 (63F) _ has survived a number of close calls, 62F in 1992 1907 ___ 1.0 share of Jan 7 (64F) 1960 ___ 0.5 share of Feb 11 (65F) _ tied in 2009 1935 ___ 0.5 share of Mar 6 (68F) _ was tied by 2022 (which would not go extinct if this record fell in 2024) (1914 has a count of 0.83 but that includes a two-way tie (95F Sep 22) and a three-way tie (94F Aug 19) so both would have to be broken). (1937 has a count of 1.0 but this involves two tied records so both of those, Jan 9 (64F tied 2008) and Dec 18 (also 64F tied 1984), would have to be broken). ______________ Also of interest, the highest counts of records currently held are 9.17 2001 8.50 1991 8.00 1953 7.83 1990 7.58 1949 7.25 1931 7.08 1988 7.00 1998 6.83 1895 1966 6.50 1944 6.00 1916 1941 1946 2015 5.58 1933 5.00 1880 1881 1945 1977 1979 4.83 1955 4.50 2020 4.00 1915 1925 1927 1928 1948 1950 1963 2002

The title is pretty much the post. There is a widespread 1 to 2 foot snow pack in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Montana, Wyoming and southern prairies of Canada. Guidance showing clear potential for very warm weather to develop after this weekend with highs into the 70s and low 80s over the snow covered areas. Would expect the Missouri to start filling up gradually all month and it could lead to severe downstream flooding by May and or June. The Mississippi drainage may also increase levels fairly quickly although there is a smaller percentage of that basin currently snow covered. Further north the Red and Assiniboine may go into flood stage later this month with the usual problems for North Dakota and Manitoba. The past six weeks have been very cold with frequent snowfalls; Fargo ND has seen almost 70" for the season of which about 30" has fallen since March 1st. Grand Forks ND is similar. Snow cover maps show snow packs of 40-60 cm or 16-24 inches fairly widespread in the upper Missouri drainage, parts of Minnesota and all of the Red-Assiniboine drainage area. Severe flooding seems difficult to avoid especially if this warmth ends with rainfalls.

Another tie? Memo to self, widen column FG. That was and remains the latest April day not to hit 80F or higher at NYC.

Did you know that this outbreak included two F4 tornadoes in south central ON, one was near Grand Valley northwest of Toronto and another one hit Barrie north of Toronto where eight people were killed? That storm continued on for about two hours and dropped funnels several more times towards Peterborough ON where an F-1 did some damage in southwest suburbs. I was living in Peterborough at that time, and we were on the north side of the cell where we got a fairly severe storm too. It was quite a strong cold front on a Friday, the next day I was playing golf and there was a westerly wind blowing at 30-40 mph all day and it was much colder too. It had been near 85F on the afternoon of the 31st before the line of storms arrived.

The low tracked from about Colorado to Ohio 4th to 6th when it redeveloped over New Jersey and a 980 mb center formed south of Long Island, which tracked past Cape Cod into the Gulf of Maine 7th-8th with a very tight circulation. Here's a link to maps: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1982&maand=04&dag=06&uur=1200&h=1&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref With the previous low that moved past to the north on 3rd-4th, NYC recorded 1.86" of rain on 3rd, then 9.6" snow on 6th from liquid equivalent of 1.11". The daily high/low values from 1st to 10th are 65/46 58/36 56/43 52/32 48/27 41/21 30/21 43/25 39/34 53/34. Would have to think the max of 41F on 6th was early, the low reformed between 06z and 12z so it may have been briefly a rain-snow mix turning to all snow. The 21F must have been at midnight as it applies to 7th as well. Toronto also had extreme values that set daily records for temperature (max 22F on 6th, min 13F on 7th) but the total snowfall there was only 3.2 cm or 1.3". About 5-7" fell across southern Quebec and 8-12" in the Canadian maritimes from late 6th to early 8th, there must have been some much higher snowfalls in New England though. I found one link that states the NWS forecast 14" from a blizzard for Boston but the article didn't mention actual amounts.

Given that GFS output for mid-April warmth, here's an average of daily highs from April to October for the four years with most impressive heat around same time, namely 1896, 1941, 1976 and 2002. The blue data represent daily calendar day averages Apr 1 to Oct 31. The orange data are slightly shifted for 1941 and 1976 so that all four have their peak day of mid-April warmth on the 18th. 1941 is shifted three days (so it runs from Mar 29 to Oct 28), and 1976 back by one day (runs Apr 2 to Nov 1). The most salient points would be continued relative warmth all of May and second half of June into July, not as impressive a warm signal by August, a slight recovery to warmth in early September, and a colder signal in October, although October 1941 had some record warmth in the first third. I also looked at rainfall amounts and those were generally dry to near end of May then mostly wet through summer and autumn months, in each case at least one month was very wet.