Roger Smith

YEAR __ 01 ____ 02 ____ 03 _____ 04 ___ 05 ___ 06 __07 __ 08 ___ 09 ___10 __ 11 2001 __ -322J_ -432J_ 58/150 _ 176 __ 172 __+8 _108J _ 237J _ 241 _ 260 _ 296 2002 __ -348F_ -425F_ 27/154 _ 169 __ 172 __ -1 _ 82J _ 206J _ 247 _ 266 _ 299 2003 __ -345F_ -464F_ 37/115 _ 175 __ 176 __-2 _ 93J _ 207J _ 255 _ 260 _ 293 2004 __ -350F_ -448F_ 36/142 _ 183*__170 __ -3 _ 68J _ 205J _ 249 _ 249 _ 286 2005 __ -349F_ -439NJ_38/115 _ 167 __168 _ -27 _ 77A _ 173J _ 242 _ 257_ 288 2006 __ -295J_ -431M_ 39/ 90 _ 148 __ 173 _-22 _ 98A_ 233A _ 248 _ 269 _ 304 2007 __-317M_ -441M_ 35/117 _ 169 __ 172 __+2 _119J _ 244J _ 237 _ 250 _ 298 2008 __ -357F_ -454M_ 43/132 _ 170 __ 169 _-15 _ 95J _ 226J _ 238 _ 252 _ 305 2009 __ -327M_ -441M_ 49/107 _ 192*__192 __+3 _ 81A _ 187J _ 252 _ 268 _ 297 2010 __ -280F_ -430F _ 33/134 _ 169 __ 174 __-2 _ 102J _ 222A_ 251 _ 264 _ 307 (1940 or available data to 2010, means for decade and cumulative through 2010) decade 2001-10 mean _ -329 _-440__40/126 _ 169 __ 174 __-6 _ 92 __ 214 __ 246 _ 260 _ 297 (71yr) _ -349 _-457 _37/128**_ 165 __ 178 __-8 _ 86 __ 207 __ 237 _ 249 _ 293 ** would be day 130 not using anomalous early case in 1974-75. cumulative frequencies for temperature extremes: _______ N _ 0 __ N 0.5 _______ D 1.5 __ D 1 _______ J 25.5_ J 22.0_______________________ Jun 0 _ Jun 5.5 _______ F 39 __F 39 ________________________ Jul 55 _ Jul 49.5 _______ M 5 __ M 8.5________________________Aug 14 _ Aug 14 Notes: 2003: Jan unusual mild incursion, -8 C on 6th, trace of (freezing) rain * _ 1.2 cm snow on July 1st, 2004 (day 183) -- pre-July date was 173. * _ 2.6 cm snow on July 11th, 2009 (day 192) -- pre-July date was 172. winter 2004-05 had coldest minimum shared by Nov and Jan, only instance where Nov set or shared this mark. Snow cover had developed more rapidly than in many other autumns in 2004. It was 22 cms on Nov 28th when the minimum (-43.9) was set. 2007: This was the autumn with the large open water anomaly north of eastern Siberia (ice free to 86 N well into the autumn) -- after a very warm July, weather at YCB was fairly normal from late August into October but snow appears to have been somewhat more frequent in mid-October, perhaps a feedback from this open water source although surface wind directions were reported as north to northeast much of the time this snow was falling. Snow cover reached 22 cms end of October which is more than most years. During eventual freeze-up of this anomaly, the open water energy dissipation may have been the cause of strong NW winds Dec 4-8, but no new snow was associated. 2010: Interesting to note, given the unusually cold weather in Britain after mid-November, the conditions were unusually mild all through the autumn at YCB. Record highs were set around Dec 19-20 (about -3 C). However, snow continued to increase gradually to an unusual depth of 40 cms by Dec 26th. ANALYSIS (2001-2010): The temperature signals remained close to the slight warming seen in the previous decade although summers backed off slightly from that peak, while winters remained about the same. It was noteworthy that the coldest time of the winter was more frequently March than in the past. The snow cover and frost statistics were similar in the spring but more representative of a warming climate in the early autumn, all indicators there shifted about five days later. The long-term averages now appear slightly different than they did in 1980. These are the net changes since 1980: (41yr) _ -358 _-467 __35/128 _ 165 _ 181 __ -9 _ 83 __ 200 __ 234 _ 251 _ 292 (71yr) _ -349 _-457 __37/128 _ 165 _ 178 __ -8 _ 86 __ 207 __ 237 _ 249 _ 293 As the period 1981-2010 is 3/4 as long as the base period 1940-80, or about equal for the snow depth portion, it can be surmised that the changes in the recent 30 year averages will be a bit more than twice as large as the shift in the cumulative record. But in any case, the cumulative averages have shifted by these amounts: SHIFT _ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ +2cm, 0d _ 0d _ -3d _ +1cm _ +0.3 _ +0.7 _ +3d _ -2d _ +1d These shifts are marginally significant to borderline moderately significant for the winter temperature data. Snow cover changes have been periodic rather than showing any real trend. The snow-free period (including about 10% of years with a July snowfall) has not really shifted very much and statistically has decreased by 2 days (from 165-251 or 86d to 165-249 or 84d) while the frost free period has increased by 2 days. Part of the uncertainty in this is that recording changed from whole degrees F to tenth-degree C which eliminates some of the potential frost candidates (0.1 to 0.3 C could have been reported as 32 F). This may actually explain most of the variation in this statistic since a correlated stat, change in snow cover April 30 to May 31, shows a slight trend towards a colder signal (less reduction). Also, with some marginal frosts removed, the relative timing of first snow and first frost has shifted. This is a rather complex mixing of a few cases of large separations with cases that would be assessed the same way due to a more pronounced first frost case. Really, as we now go to the 2011-2020 decade (plus ongoing data 2021-23) to complete this study, the indications of a large shift in climate at YCB are faint overall. It is more a case of a few anecdotal oddities such as a couple of mild spells in mid-winter and the more frequent warm spells in mid-summer, as to the basic climate, it seems fairly robust. YEAR __ 01 ___ 02 ___ 03 ____ 04 ___ 05 __ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 ___ 10 __ 11 2011 __ -312J_ -451M_ 49/130 _ 179 __ 174 __+1 _109J _ 200J _ 244 _ 267 _ 301 2012 __ -320J_ -426J_ 43/149 _ 156 __ 171 __ +7 _108J _ 198A _ 254 _ 227 _ 297 2013 __ -361F_ -427F_ 26/102 _ 139 __ 170 __-9 _ 80J _ 214A _ 235 _ 235 _ 311 2014 __ -318J_ -426J_ 30/148 _ 160 __ 172 __ -6 _ 84J _ 205J _ 250 _ 247 _ 295 2015 __ -317F_ -412F_ 35/121 _ 170 __172 _ -21 _ 95J _ 203A_ 247 _ 268 _ 294 2016 __ -319F_ -385D_ 26/144 _ 153 __164 __ -1 _103J_ 248J _ 250 _ 250 _ 293 2017 __ -309F_ -459M_ 41/105 _ 148 __172 __-32 _ 97J_ 224J _ 241 _ 251 _ 296 2018 __ -325F_ -449F_ 31/135 _ 150 __188 __ +4 _ 83J_ 184J _ 233 _ 233 _ 288 2019 __ -331J _ -416J_ 51/134 _ 162 __164 __--2 _ 84J_ 219A _ 243 _ 280*_ 299 2020 __ -331J _ -435M_25/93**_166 _ 168 __ 0 _108J_ 231J _ 242 _ 257 _ 303 * With considerable missing data mid-Sept to Oct 7, this is the last possible date for first reported snow on the ground on Oct 8 (d281). It could have fallen at some point between days 259 and 280. Will be attempting to get a more accurate number for this data point from weather maps or other secondary data. This was a much longer data outage than is usually the case at YCB. ** 2020 max snow depth 25 cm persisted Apr 2 (93) to Apr 15 (106). (1940 or available data to 2020, means for decade and cumulative through 2020) period 2011-20 mean _ -325 _-430__36/127 _ 158 __ 171 __-7 _ 95 __ 213 __ 244 _ 252 _ 298 (81yr) _ -346 _-456 _37/128 _ 164 __ 177 __-8 _ 87 __ 208 __ 238 _ 250 _ 293 cumulative frequencies for temperature extremes: Coldest month __ day ________________ Warmest month __ day _______ N _ 0 __ N 0.5 _______ D 1.5 __ D 2 _______ J 30.5_ J 25.0_______________________ Jun 0 _ Jun 5.5 _______ F 44 __F 42 ________________________ Jul 65 _ Jul 55.5 _______ M 5 __M 11.5_______________________Aug 14 _ Aug 18 (counts not dates) ANALYSIS (2011 to 2020) Most of the data continue the same trends, a slight warming of winter temperature extremes as well as summer, although the peak of warmth appears to have been back around 1998, trend is fairly flat since then. Snowfall has been somewhat lower in this past nine year interval. (as posted in March 2017) I will be looking over the data in graphical format after I have a chance to input into an excel file. More comments will be posted then. I would say in general that you can see the effects of a warming trend but perhaps the impacts are less massive than some might speculate. The most changed part of the year seems to be late August and early September, winter as we would recognize it in our southerly latitudes now sets in a bit less quickly and there seems to be (in most years) a longer pause between the warmth of summer (which often fades after August 10th) and any real winter conditions in terms of snow cover or days staying below freezing. The pause interval seems to involve weeks of near-freezing temperatures, small amounts of rain and snow mixed, and from the looks of other data, northerly flow but not very strong. The snow data and temperatures for May and June convince me that if snow cover was reduced in general, the summers would start earlier and get quite warm by mid-June. As soon as snow is removed, temperatures often respond by rising 5 to 10 degrees, but one would have to survey the wider landscape around YCB to get a better idea of how much snow persists in higher terrain nearby. I did notice several occasions when snow apparently drifted into the observation site because snow depth would increase despite a lack of reported snowfall. The wind direction most associated with this phenomenon was easterly. I also saw some examples of where snow may have been blown away from the measurement site by westerly winds. (note added: the study has now been put onto an excel file and all data adjusted after recalculations, just minor second decimal issues) Also, the last snowfall dates have been adjusted so that July data now appear in that column and not the pre-July dates which are now found in the notes. This basically shifts the average back about four days overall (from 161 to 165). =========================================== 2021 data so far ... Coldest month -32.8 Feb (may have been -33.2 as five missing days all in very cold second half) Coldest reading -43.9 Feb 5, could possibly have fallen lower in the five missing days. Max snow depth 37 cm Apr 28 to May 2. Snow depth change -4 cm, still 33 cm on ground May 31. Last snow hard to determine with many "missing" entries during gradual snowmelt period ending mid-June. Last frost was June 25 (day 176). Warmest summer month only 6.9 July and Aug, three missing days July no large change likely. Aug several missing days in warmer first half, could have been closer to 7.2. Highest summer max 16.4 July. Missing days in August might have been warmer though. No frost or snow as of Sept 4th. Some measurable snow by 29th. First -20C reading was Nov 10th, unusually late (although 9th had missing data). The frequency of missing days is becoming more and more of an issue and the study might have to be declared "done" if this gets any worse. ---------------------------------- 2022 data (again suffering from some incomplete sections) Coldest month Feb -33.7 (one day missing, near end, would est actual mean -33.5) Coldest reading -41.9 on 10 Feb 2022 Max snow depth 32 cm Apr 9-15 May snow on ground stayed constant at 28-29 cm (loss 1 cm) -- May was quite a cold month (mean -7.7 C) last snow 2.0 cm on June 7th, snow on ground melted by June 16 (traces to June 18). Traces of snow fell later and in July. last frost June 16th (some missing data later) warmest month July average shown 10.8, possibly 11.5 as a few missing days were in a warmer section of the month max temp listed is 23.8 on 24th July. There could have been a warmer reading on missing days. In any case those are both considerably warmer than average for the site. Aug with fewer missing days avg 8.5 C. first frost on 26 Aug 2022. (-0.6 C) first -20C reading 24 Oct 2022. --------------------- winter 2022-23: coldest month Feb 2023 mean -34.8 C , coldest temp 18 Feb -42.5 C. max snow on ground may 2-9, 40 cm, snowfall 37 cm 1 may to 23 cm at end of may (-14 cm) last frost 24 June , snow was all melted 10-12 June (later than recent average) summer 2023: warmest month July 2023 mean 11.9, warmest temp 24.9 C on 17 July. first frost 31 Aug, quite cold after mid-Aug, first part of Aug like July. first snow trace 26 Aug and several days in Sep but first measurable snow on ground 2 Oct first -20C reading 7 Nov (was below -19 on 5-6 Nov), one of latest onsets of usual winter cold. So far 20 cm around 25-26 Nov is max snow depth, currently (10 Dec) about 15 cm.

note: 1970-71 is the first winter in this study to have either its coldest month or lowest daily minimum in the December of the winter (Dec 1970 in this case). YEAR __ 01 ____ 02 ____ 03 _____ 04 ___ 05 __ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 ___ 10 ___ 11 1971 __ -346D_ -450D_ 25/110 _ 157 __ 173 _-10 _ 93J _ 194J _ 225b_ 225b_ 300 1972 __ -388F_ -483F_ 38/145 _ 178 __ 197 __+2 _ 59J _ 167A _ 228 _ 243 _ 280 1973 __ -345F_ -483F_ 28/132 _ 142 __ 171 _-20 _ 95A _ 228A _ 253 _ 272 _ 295 1974 __ -358F_ -472F_ 25/128 _ 157 __ 177 _-10 _ 94J _ 239J _ 226 _ 226 _ 278 1975 __ -369J_ -494J_ 20/-59c _ 146 __ 155 __-7 _ 88A _ 211A_ 237 _ 243 _ 285 1976 __ -345F_ -467JM_25/125_ 170 __ 190 _-20 _ 83J _ 194J _ 221 _ 255 _ 289 1977 __ -357F_ -483F_ 35/135 _ 147 __ 168 _-23 _ 83J _ 189jun_246 _ 255 _ 290 1978 __ -307M_ -436F_19/147 _ 169 __ 193 __-2 _ 45J d_137J d_223 _ 241 _ 281 1979 __ -382F_ -495F_ 31/133 _ 159 __ 180 _-19 _ 71J _ 174J _ 227 _ 229 _ 279 1980 __ -343J_ -438J_ 51/131 _ 167 __ 168 _-28e_ 75A_ 196A_ 232 _ 262 _ 297 (1940 or available data to 1980, means for decade and cumulative through 1980) decade 1971-80 means mean _ -354 _-470__30/113* _ 159 _ 177 __-14 _ 79 __ 193 __ 232 _ 245 _ 287 (41yr) _ -358 _-467 __35/128*_ 164 _ 181 __ -9 __83 __ 200 __ 234 _ 251 _ 292 cumulative frequency 1940-80 ______ D 1 __ D 1 ______ J 14 __ J 16,5_____________________ Jun 0 _ Jun 2 ______ F 23 __F 22 ______________________ Jul 30 _ Jul 28 ______ M 3 __ M 1.5______________________ Aug 9 _ Aug 9 * the earlier average for maximum snow depth is almost all due to the one anomalous case (see note c) and would have been 130 using the secondary maximum. The cumulative would have been 131. This anomalous data point reduces the overall (77-yr) average by 2 days. So it depends on whether you want to study the climatology of snowfall (accept all dates within the season) or the peak before melt begins (accept dates after March 1st). This anomaly was not repeated later in the series, Notes: b _ The early snow and air frost of -0.6 C (Aug 13, 1971) were accompanied by WNW winds gusting 109 km/hr. c _ The winter of 1974-75 had very light snowfall and its greatest depth came on Nov 2, 1974. (20 cm). This is the first winter in the study period that had its maximum before March let alone in the previous year's portion. The date number -59 is for the average since day 1 is Jan 1, day 0 is Dec 31, day -30 is Dec 1 and day -60 is Nov 1st. The maximum depth attained in the spring months was 18 cm on April 27th (after dropping as low as 13 cm in Jan to Mar. This snow-devoid winter was then followed by a record warm June (7.0 C). During this month of mostly southeast winds, a strong NW wind blew for two days (21st-22nd) gusting near 100 km/hr both days. After quite a warm summer for this location, a wintry storm developed September 8-9 with 6.3 cm snow and NE winds gusting to 116 km/hr. d _ These were the lowest values for warmest month and day in the series. This suggests that in a colder climate interval than the 20th century, it would be conceivable to find summers where snow never melted on Victoria Island (of course this would be the case before a glacial period but possibly also in inter-glacial cold episodes -- not enough is really known to say whether those might be most likely in hemispheric coolings like the Maunder or LIA, or independent localized phenomena of the arctic islands -- it should be made clear that no such outcome is implied in 1978 but that would be a summer when it might be possible to find remnant snow fields in central Victoria Island perhaps). Basically the warmer spells were very muted and confined to late July and early August of 1978. However, September stayed rather mild and there was little snow on the ground even during colder weather by mid-October. e _ This snow loss from April 30 to May 31 was larger than all others before it, but left 20 cms on the ground which is well above most other years. The circulation during the second half of May was mainly easterly. ANALYSIS During the 1971-80 decade, there was little substantial change to winter's coldest temperatures, and summers were actually somewhat cooler than the 1940-70 period (where two years are missing, those could have been cooler and made the difference less apparent). Other variables shifted slightly as the means demonstrate, but the main item of interest was the rather variable intrusion of an early AGW signal possibly in 1975 after a very snow-deprived winter, which led to a much different summer than most others both in duration and storminess at each end. There are perhaps arguments available here for this decade being either largely a continuation, or the first signs of a shift in climate. - - - - - - - - YEAR __ 01 ___ 02 ___ 03 ____ 04 ___ 05 __ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 ___ 10 __ 11 1981 __ -313F_ -445F_ 21/ 99 _ 154 __ 167 _-14 _ 78J _ 192A _ 240 _ 222 _ 301 1982 __ -352F_ -436F_ 30/ 94 _ 174 __ 177 _-12 _ 74J _ 206Jj _ 229 _ 233 _ 291 1983 __ -374F_ -446J_ 54/119 _ 166 __ 168 __-8 _ 90J _ 198J _ 230 _ 260 _ 286 1984 __ -349J_ -468F_ 47/131 _ 109^__169 _-12 _ 92J _ 207J _ 233 _ 250 _ 302 1985 __ -365F_ -456F_ 44/128 _ 164 __ 211$_-12 _ 64J _188jun_232 _ 232_ 294 1986 __ -352J_ -449F_ 37/149 _ 163 __ 173 _+10 _ 71J _ 224J _ 233 _ 235 _ 280 1987 __ -330J_ -441F_ 40/113 _ 176 __ 176 __-5 _ 76J _ 175J _ 242 _ 217z_ 288 1988 __ -352J_ -452J_ 39/144 _ 170 __ 173 __-3 _ 89J _ 218jun_238 _ 252 _ 294 1989 __ -313F_ -445F_ 43/135 _ 166 __ 168 __-3 _ 98J _ 269J _ 252 _ 259 _ 289 1990 __ -382F_ -465F_ 44/143 _ 165 __ 172 _-11 _ 85J _ 228J _ 250 _ 247 _ 289 (1940 or available data to 1990, means for decade and cumulative through 1990) decade mean for 1981-90 ______ -348 __-450__40/126 _ 161 _ 175 __-7 _ 82 __ 211 __ 238 _ 241 _ 291 (51yr) _-356 __-463 __37/127 _ 163 _ 180 __-8 _ 82 __ 202 __ 235 _ 249 _ 292 cumulative frequency 1940-90 ______ D 1 __ D 1 ______J 18 __ J 18.5_____________________ Jun 0 _ Jun 4.5 ______F 29 __F 30 ______________________ Jul 40 _ Jul 34.5 ______M 3 __ M 1.5______________________ Aug 9 _ Aug 10 Notes: 1982 daily max of 20.6 in both June and July. ^ _ 1984 last spring snowfall April 19th, snow depths varied after this by over 20 cm so this needs further investigation, no measurable snow in May for first time in this set of data (since 1940). $ _ This frost on July 30, 1985 (-1.6 C) was perhaps the most isolated in the record in terms of taking place in the warmest portion of summer. The last frost before it was on June 22nd (day 173). Almost all other July frosts are in the first half of the month. z _ On August 5, 1987, a rather unusual early snowfall of 2.6 cm, no air frost (min same day 0.5 C). 1988 had very mild weather (above freezing) in late September lasting into the first part of October without frosts. Normally it is around -8 to -15 at this point in the early winter. 1989 had a very warm summer, July at 9.8 and August at 8.8 with the maximum of 26.9 the highest since 1930. ANALYSIS (1981-90): There were slight increases in the temperature data mostly based on the onset of considerably warmer conditions in 1988 to 1990, but little associated change in the dates of first or last frosts and snowfalls, or the onset of -20 C readings. Perhaps the biggest change was increased snowfall evident after 1982. This seemed to return the snow climatology to the heavier amounts often seen in the first part of this study. YEAR __ 01 ____ 02 ____ 03 _____ 04 ____ 05 __ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 ___ 10 __ 11 1991 __ -354J_ -449M_ 47/135 _ 156 __ 166 __+1 _ 83J _ 261A_ 239 _ 237 _ 287 1992 __ -348J_ -423F_ 47/144 _ 163 __ 187 ___ 0 _ 75J _ 212J _ 239 _ 266 _ 294 1993 __ -335F_ -476F_ 59/129 _ 179 __ 166 __-5 _ 94J _ 218J _ 221 _ 239 _ 299 1994 __ -318J_ -414M_ 35/113 _ 162 __176 _ -24 _105J _ 222J _ 242 _ 242 _ 311 1995 __ -322F_ -471M_ 46/127 _ 188*__169 ___0 _ 80J _ 207A _ 239 _ 240_ 285 1996 __ -340DJ -481J_ 49/129 _ 163 __ 173 _-35 _123J _233jun_237 _233 _ 295 1997 __ -322F_ -433F_ 26/136 _ 184*__ 180 __-8 _ 96J _ 223J _ 241 _ 236 _ 299 1998 __ -353J_ -439F_ 39/123 _ 151 __ 166 _-11 _107J _ 246J _ 260 _ 248 _ 304 1999 __ -319J_ -415F_ 36/142 _ 161 __ 183 __+3 _ 71A _ 180J _ 243 _ 243 _ 289 2000 __ -312F_ -429J_ 33/152 _ 154 __ 167 __+3 _109J _ 252J _ 240 _ 250 _ 290 (1940 or available data to 2000, means for decade and cumulative through 2000) decade mean for 1981-90 (top row) mean _ -332 _-443__42/133 _ 166 _ 173 __-8 __ 94 __ 225 __ 240 _ 243 _ 295 (61yr) _ -351 _-460 __34/127*_ 164 _ 177 __-9 _ 84 __ 206 __ 236 _ 248 _ 292 mean of 1940 to 2000 (second row) would be day 129 if anomalous early date in 1974-75 not used. cumulative frequencies for temperature extremes (1940-2000): _______ D 1.5 __ D 1 _______ J 23.5_ J 20.5_______________________ Jun 0 _ Jun 5.5 _______ F 33 __F 35 ________________________ Jul 49 _ Jul 41.5 _______ M 3 __ M 4.5________________________Aug 10 _ Aug 12 Notes: * _ July 1995 had 0.2 cm snow on July 7th. (day 188) The pre-July latest was quite early, day 144 (May 24). * _ July 1997 had 0.2 cm snow on July 3rd. (day 184). The pre-July latest was day 175 (June 24th). Winter 1995-96, Dec and Jan tied for coldest month. Summer 1996 had an exceptional warm spell June 22 to July 8 and a minor resurgence in late July. After rather cool weather in early August, there was 19 cm of snow August 20-21. Most of this apparently melted within two days. Summer 1998 was very warm, July at 10.7 and August at 9.6 C. ANALYSIS (1991-2000): Significant warming can be seen in the winter and summer extreme elements which ran about 2 deg warmer than previous decades. Summer warmth is a more expected condition (since 1988) and no year in this decade had a summer "no show" like other decades managed once or twice. At the same time, other elements did not respond in the same way, although the first -20 of winter came a few days later. The heavier snow period seemed to taper back to more long-term average amounts after about 1996.

I am as interested in arctic climate change as anyone, but a lot of discussion goes on without much reference to actual data. (Note, this material is reposted from a thread on Net-weather. Today (Dec 27, 2023) I am republishing the thread ere on American Weather. If you want to post comments, perhaps you could wait until after 7 p.m. EST when I hope to be finished posting. There will be about 30-40 posts. Cambridge Bay is located on the southern coast of Victoria Island, a huge and largely barren arctic island about the same size as Great Britain, and located between 68 and 73 degrees north latitude in the western arctic. The Inuit population of the eastern arctic have their own territory (Nunavut, or NU) and Cambridge Bay, a town of about 1500 population, is just inside its border while the western third of the island (and adjacent Banks Island) are in the Northwest Territories (NT). The weather station began operations in 1929 -- the airport is near sea level and just southwest of the town -- and the data from the years through 1939 are spotty at best. There are not enough continuous periods of observation to draw many conclusions about the local climate in that period. Since 1940, the weather station has operated almost continuously, with a few missing stretches that must have been caused by staffing problems or perhaps loss of data. I have treated the data as continuous because very few days are missing, except where noted. (added later _ After this section on Cambridge Bay, I will be adding similar data for Resolute, located in the central arctic islands to the northeast of Cambridge Bay _ look for that added information in the next few days). The objective of this study is to pick some major climate features and study how these have varied, if at all, from the 1940s to the present time. I had read anecdotally that the climate in that region had warmed almost as much as the celebrated (wrong word probably) increases around Svalbard. The climate of the western Canadian arctic has little direct oceanic influence and is therefore probably more indicative of air mass frequency than changes to local modifiers. If ice cover has changed over the Beaufort Sea, it should be noted that Cambridge Bay is about as far from that body of water as Berlin is from the Atlantic Ocean, although similarly exposed to its west by mostly flat undulating terrain of Banks Island and then western Victoria Island. Overview of the climate Winter is of course very long and begins around the middle to end of September in most years with frequent snowfalls. Temperatures drop gradually through the range of -5 to -20 C by early November, with day to day variations. This first part of the arctic winter is windy and frequently stormy although snowfall amounts are typically light given their frequency. In a normal winter, about 25-40 cms of snow has accumulated by New Years and this coverage remains almost static but usually slowly increasing, as small top-up amounts in January to March are somewhat compensated by sublimation or settling (or redistribution by wind but that could also increase snow depth). Temperatures typically keep dropping through the two months of continuous darkness mid-November to late January, and bottom out in late January or February which is often the coldest month of the winter, with long spells around -35 to -40 not uncommon. Lighter winds are noted by this portion of the arctic winter; it should be noted that despite tales of monster storms hitting arctic expeditions, most of the peak wind gusts noted at this and other arctic weather stations falls in the same range as we see in southern Canada, 80 to 110 km/hr. Wind gusts that strong seem to occur about three or four times a winter and often from directions between northwest and north-north-east, as the strongest low pressure systems of mid-winter are likely to be either heading due east (north of YCB) or situated off to the east around Resolute and looping around or dropping southward in the vicinity of the central arctic islands. While March and April are hardly "spring" as we would know it, the human population finds the conditions more amenable to travel and outdoor activity, as there is often sunshine in the rapidly increasing daylight hours. By early May it is becoming light almost alll through the night and then comes two months of continuous daylight. While there can be significant storms in these three months, the average snowfall often drops off to 5-10 cms a month from its peak of about 15-25 cms in the early winter. There can be a secondary peak in snowfall just before the winter (or spring) gives way to arctic summer in early June. In a few years as noted, large snowfalls occurred in May or even early June before the main snowmelt began, but in other years this begins in the last few days of May. Going back through the entire winter-spring period, it can be added that rainfall almost never falls past mid-November at the latest or before mid-May, and there are seasons where roughly equal amounts of rain and snow fall, often on the same day, as a frequent synoptic pattern is for low pressure to track east along the northern Canadian mainland. The summer is quite brief but can be intensely warm for the latitude. Heated air masses of Pacific origin from the Mackenzie valley region to the southwest are drawn in and suffer only slight cooling from having to cross narrow straits south of Victoria Island (and numerous mainland lakes that remain frozen into July). While lakes are less widespread on Victoria Island, any that are present can remain frozen almost into August and then start refreezing in late September. The summer weather regime begins to take hold in fitful periods of alternating damp chill and warming sunshine in late June, typically one or two days will reach 14-17C by then. With no darkness at night, the overnight lows are mild for the most part. By July, usually the warmest month, some long periods of warmth can be expected with highs into the 20s. However, even then, cold and rainy intervals are possible, as well as dank foggy spells. Snow is very rare from June 21st to August 15th. It tends to show up in about one third of late Augusts and in almost all Septembers. A typical September in Cambridge Bay would be rather similar to a November in the Lake Superior region of southern Canada, with bursts of heavy snow, some rain, and large swings in temperature, copious cloud and brief clear intervals that are much colder (especially if snow has fallen) but a rapid decline in temperature overall.; This is a link to the 1981-2010 normals and period records (1929 to present) for Cambridge Bay. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/results_1981_2010_e.html?stnID=1786&autofwd=1 Some of the extremes such as the highest temperature (28.9 C in 1930) occurred in those brief intervals of data collection before this study period begins in 1940. Key Climate Indicators chosen for study 1. Coldest monthly mean temperature (winter rather than calendar year) 2. Lowest winter temperature 3. Deepest winter snow pack 4, Date of last snowfall 5, Date of last air frost 6. Change in snow cover reported April 30 to May 31 7, Warmest monthly mean temperature of summer 8. Highest summer temperature 9. Date of first air frost 10. Date of first snowfall 11. Date of first -20 C reading Tables of these elements will be provided next. The snowfall season for dating first and last snow events arbitrarily runs from August 1st to June 30th so that any July snowfalls are noted by asterisks below the tables (there are only a handful). Any measurable amount is acceptable, traces are ignored. The source of all data is Historical Data section of the Environment Canada website, monthly or daily data as required, Analysis of trends and variability follows the data tables. Using 1940 (or first reported year) as a guide, this is how to read the table. Element 1 __ -296F __ Feb mean -29.6 the lowest monthly mean of 1939-40. Element 2 __ -467F __ Min of -46.7 Feb coldest reading of winter 1939-40. Element 3 __ msg ___ maximum snow depth from end of month which is the only time actually reported 1949 to 1954, or any other date if can be established -- for example in 1950 with 43 cm at end of April and May, estimated 46 cm on May 20 as first 20 days had 5 cm snow in small amounts, and sustained cold, then last eleven days little snow and some minor melting likely, so best estimate would be a slight increase to 20th then a decrease back to the late April value -- as there was no snow depth data until 1948, this column is "msg" until data begins -- where available, the report is an amount in cms followed by a date in number form, e.g. 46/140 for 1950 means 46 cm on May 20. When looking at these dates, remember that every fourth year (with data) after 1944 will be a leap year. Also, the date cited is the last date of the spring season where the amount is sustained for more than one consecutive day (for example in April 1962 the amount 25 cm was reported every day of April so April 30 is chosen as the date). Element 4 __ 167 __ last snow of season June 15th -- entry is once again date number, typically in June when day 152 is June 1st and 181 is June 30th (non-leap-year). (153 to 182 in leap years). An asterisk beside this number will indicate a July snowfall event, details will be provided at end of tables. Since first posted, I have changed the logic of this to use the July date in the table and make the comment to indicate the earlier pre-July date. Basically, a snowfall season at Cambridge Bay normally winds down in early to mid June and resumes in late August. July and early August events are sometimes outliers, and sometimes more connected to the fading or emerging winter seasons depending on details. Element 5 __ 205 __ air frost occurred on July 23rd day 205 of leap year 1940. There were frequent air frosts to end of June that year. Latest date accepted for this is July 31st then August 1st could be the earliest frost of the next cycle (same year). Element 6 __ msg __ when available, this will be the difference of April 30 minus May 31 snow cover. e.g., --5 will indicate a loss of 5 cms. Zero indicates no change and any positive numbers indicate a net gain in snow cover in May. This element will track a vital precursor portion of the length of the arctic summer and melting period. Element 7 __ 80J _ Indicates that the warmest month of 1940 was July with mean of 8.0. When it's June, the J will be replaced with jun. (The daily max in 1968 is the first case where June qualifies). August (A) will be the other month that might appear in this column. It is usually July. Element 8 __ 172J _ Indicates that the warmest temperature of summer 1940 was 17.2 in July (same protocol for June or August as above). Element 9 __ 215 __ First frost occurred August 2nd. This was an unusually cold day with a high of only 4.4 and a trace of snow. The range of this element will normally be mid-August to early September. Element 10 __ 286 __ First snowfall in winter 1940-41 was October 12th. This is unusually late and looking at the September data one has to question whether some snowfall in September went unreported. This is not a general problem in the later records. When available, first snowfall from August 1st on, by date number. In non-leap years, August runs from 213 to 243 (214 to 244 in leap years). September runs from 244 to 273 (or 245 to 274 l.y.). This is the range that will usually be found here. Element 11 __ 325 __ First -20 minimum occurred on November 20th in 1940. The range for this variable will be late October to early December. This is often a rough indicator of when ice will be sturdy enough for travel near shore at least. Key Climate Indicators 1940 to 2016 -- part one 1940 to 1970 YEAR __ 01 ___ 02 ____ 03 _____ 04 ___ 05 ___ 06 __ 07 ___ 08 ___ 09 ___ 10 __ 11 1940 __ -296F_ -467F_ msg ___ 167 __ 205 _ msg _ 80J _ 172J _ 215 _ 286 _ 325 1941 __ -326J_ -433J_ msg ___ 147 __ 180 _ msg _105J _ 206J _ 217 _ 244 _ 293 1942 __ -366F_ -467F_ msg ___ 162 __ 179 _ msg _105J _ 211J _ 237 _ 252 _ 305^ 1943 __ -337J_ -467J_ msg ___ msg$__ 173 _ msg _103A _ 194J _msg%_msg%_296 1944 __ -340F_ -433F_ msg ___ msg!__ 176 _ msg _ 72J _ 172J _ 239 _ 285 _ 300 1945 __ -315F_ -456J_ msg ___ no summer or Sept data for these stats _____ 293 1946 __ -372F_ -483F_ msg ___ 146 __ 190 _ msg _ 75J _ 194A _ 220 _ 256 _ 284 1947 __ -343J_ -467J_ msg ___ 135 to May 31 but no June to mid-Jan 1948 data __ 1948 __ -349F_ -467F_ 13/121 _ 172 __ 175 __ 0 _ 110J _ 233J _ 240 _ 257 _ 287 1949 __ -380F_ -482F_ 41/151 _ 191*__ 190__+3 _ 82A _ 200A _ 237 _ 236 _ 287 1950 __ -391J_ -478F_ 46/140 _ 174 __ 177 __ 0 __ 63J _ 156J _ 227 _ 226 _ 293 1951 __ -372F_ -461F_ 45/110 _176#__ 178 __-5 _ 73A _ 228A _ 228 _ 254 _ 289 1952 __ -357F_ -450J_ 47/110 _ 130 __ 187 _ -18 _ 81J _ 200J _ 236 _ 244 _ 290 1953 __ -366J_ -461J_ 59/144 _ 175 __ 179 __-2 _ 77J _ 194A _ 230 _ 272 _ 293 1954 __ -338J_ -478F_ 38/120 _ 178 __ 179 _ -15 _110A_ 233A_ 246 _ 248 _ 289 1955 __ -382F_ -506F_ 42/147_ 171 __ 196 __ 0 __ 78J _ 233J _ 245 _ 251 _ 305 1956 __ -386F_ -456F _ 50/146 _ 203*__ 204 __-7 _ 94J _ 222J _ 237 _ 258 _ 285 1957 __ -371F_ -462F _ 46/150 _ 168 __ 179 __+2 _ 66J _ 189J _ 225 _ 258 _ 294 1958 __ -393F_ -483F _ 58/126 _ 159 __ 173 _ -12 _ 88A _ 167J _ 250 _ 270 _ 301 1959 __ -325F_ -433F _ 53/162 _ 174 __ 177 __+7 _ 61J _ 172J _ 238 _ 249 _ 290 1960 __ -348J_ -483J _ 25/152&_134 __ 175 _ -17 _ 92J _ 239J _ 250 _ 260 _ 290 1961 __ -377M_ -461M _20/143 _ 168 __ 176 __-5 _ 98J _ 211J _ 239 _ 251 _ 278 1962 __ -367F_ -483J _ 23/120 _ 152 __ 162 __ -8 _ 94J _ 228J _ 231 _ 247 _ 294 1963 __ -362M_ -456J _ 33/139 _157 __ 176 __ -5 _ 73J _ 189J _ 235 _ 243 _ 282 1964 __ -380J_ -483J _ 30/126 _ 195*__ 196 _ -15 _ 72A _ 211J _ 249 _ 255 _ 289 1965 __ -376F_ -467F _ 36/ 72 _ 158 __ 184 __ -7 _ 73J _ 167J _ 242 _ 243 _ 287 1966 __ -383J_ -494JF_ 20/135 _ 145 __ 176 _-17 _ 94J _ 189J _ 247 _ 260 _ 285 1967 __ -369F_ -467J _ 20/154 _ 150 __ 189 __+7 _ 65J _ 228J _ 225 _ 245 _ 296 1968 __ -351J_ -472JF_ 51/148 _ 191*__ 184 _-11a_ 63J _ 189jun 216a_215a_301 1969 __ -340J_ -439J _ 28/121 _ 177 __ 184 _ -18 _ 91J _ 228J _ 243 _ 261 _ 301 1970 __ -348J_ -439J _ 18/144 _ 172 __ 172 _ -15 _ 94J _ 200J _ 229 _ 244 _ 279 means _ -359 __-466 __37/134 _ 166 __ 182 __ -7 _ 84 __ 202 __ 235 _ 253 _ 293 freq ___ J 12 __ J 14 ________________________ Jun 0 _ Jun 1 _______ F 17 __F 16 ________________________ Jul 23 _ Jul 23 _______ M 2 __ M 1 _________________________Aug 6 _ Aug 5 (frequency is 0.5 when months tied). (frequency totals for coldest month, coldest day, warmest month and day) (last snow avg date 162 if only pre-July cases used and 164 if all July cases but the 1956 outlier are used.) Notes: $ _ no precip data June 1943, temps sometimes suitable for snow to 15th. ^ _ temp data msg 302-303, no -20 readings on days with data in October 1942 % _ all data msg Sept 1943, no air frosts or snow in August which was unusually warm ! _ no data May 1944, data but no snow June 1944, value 152 or lower * all July snowfall notes _ * In July 1949, a very cool month, 1.3 cm snow July 10 (after 0.3 cm 8th) can be considered the actual last snow as this did not happen after any substantial warmth, so when assessing trends will use 191 as value here. The date of the last pre-July snowfall was day 174 (June 23rd). _ * In July 1956, 1.5 cm snow fell on July 21st during an otherwise rather warm month, and this was followed by an air frost, otherwise the latest frost had been June 16th (day 168). This is so far the only case of a true mid-summer outlier. Its value in terms of days is 203. The last snowfall before this had been on day 157 (June 5th in this leap year). _ * In July 1964, 0.5 cm snow fell on July 13th, and there was little sustained warmth until after this event, so that the value 195 is probably appropriate. The last snowfall pre-July was on day 175 (June 23rd). _ * In July 1968, 0.8 cm snow fell on July 9th, and the value 191 is probably appropriate. The last snowfall pre-July was on day 169 (June 17th). # _ The last snow June 26 1951 was unusually heavy, 11.9 cm, None was reported as snow depth by June 30 despite ongoing chilly temperatures. & _ A snow depth of 25 cm was reported from late December 1959 into early May 1960, not sure if this value is reliable or not (total snowfall was rather low so probably close, but the never-changing value over five months suggests a data recording problem or perhaps a frozen snow pack with small amounts being blown away from the site). a _ There were several odd features to the end of winter and summer of 1968. The snow depth increased steadily from 36 cm to 52 cm during May, peaking on the 27th, then rapidly diminished to 25 cm. Then with late frosts and snowfalls noted under * there was no real summer at all, and unusually early snowfall and frost was noted in the first three days of August. After that no further snow fell until September 2nd (day 246). Temperatures from mid-September to mid-October were considerably above normal.

Considering it will be warmest year on record, it was not due to record highs as much as a near-total absence of cold days. Like 1998, another top ten year for average NYC temperatures, max was only 93F. One has to go all the way down to t46 warmest 2007 (92F) to find any year in list of warm years to find a lower annual max, and indeed, 24 of the 25 coldest years also had an annual max higher than (21) or equal to (3) 2023. Besides 2007, the only other years with a lower annual max are (in order of their annual average) t65 warmest 2004 (91), 68 warmest 2014 (92) ... (median is 78) ... t75 coldest 1960 (91) and 2009 (92), t47 coldest 1927 (92), t37 coldest 1902 (90), t34 coldest 1877 (92), t30 coldest 1889 (91), t28 coldest 1907 (92), t26 coldest 1884 (91) and t11 coldest 1871 (92). (there were eight additional years and 2007, tied at 93F with 2023 (1874 1875 1882 1909 1958 1992 1998 2000 2007). So 2023 was tied 13th lowest annual maximum. (bluewave would say t4th). December (likely 2nd or 3rd warmest) is similar in that quite a few past Decembers (at least forty) had higher maximum readings than the 62F observed in 2023. It has been a steady moderate warmth that has pushed 2023 into the top ranks.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA As is our custom, relaxed late penalties for new years, no penalty will be assessed until 18z 2nd and it will be 1% for every six hrs or portion thereafter. Will assess viability of contest depending on turnout, would turn thread into a discussion if we fall below a quorum.

I adjusted ORD and IAH today, you could be correct in saying eventual 8-9 but scoring will revert to max 60 above 5.2 anyway, and will look like it does for +5. (It was in fact +8.6 at ORD) ... Also, max 60 was required to score NYC, BOS, ORD, and DEN. __ Final scoring for December 2023 __ FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________________ 74 _60^_ 60^__194 __ 60^_ 96 _94 __ 250 __444 __ 52^_ 46 _ 34 __ 132 ____ 576 DonSutherland 1 _________________44 _ 18^_ 14^__ 076 __ 40^_ 68 _ 90 __ 198 __ 274 __ 60^_ 52 _ 96 __208 ____ 482 RJay _____________________________ 54 _ 54^_ 54^__ 162 __ 50^_ 78 _ 92 __ 220 __ 382 __ 26^_ 26 _ 30 __ 082 ____ 464 so_whats_happening ____________ 56 _ 42^_ 20^__ 118 __ 42^_ 76 _ 86 ___ 204 __ 322 __ 40^_ 42 _ 40 __ 122 ____ 444 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 52 _ 12^_ 26^__ 090 __ 34^_ 74 _ 84 ___ 192 __ 282 __ 46^_ 30 _ 84 __ 160 ____ 442 RodneyS _________________________ 44 _ 48^_ 50^__ 142 __ 54^_ 64 _ 98 __ 216 __ 358 __ 30^_ 08 _ 30 __ 068 ____ 426 ___ Consensus ____________________44 _ 30^_ 30^__ 104 __ 34^_ 68 _ 84 __ 186 __ 290 __ 30^_ 26 _ 34 __ 090 ____ 380 BKViking _________________________ 40 _ 30^_ 30^__ 100 __ 24^_ 52 _ 66 __ 142 __ 242 __ 12^_ 20 _ 62 __ 094 ____ 336 Scotty Lightning _________________ 50 _ 46^_ 40^__ 136 __ 12^ _ 76 _ 84 ___172 __ 308 __ 00 _ 00 _ 20 __ 020 ____ 328 Tom ______________________________ 40 _ 30^_ 42^__ 112 __ 22^ _ 62 _ 70 __ 154 __ 266 __ 06^_ 12 _ 26 __ 044 ____ 310 Roger Smith ______________________ 16 _ 06^_ 06^__ 028 __ 06^_ 28 _ 42 __ 076 __ 104 __ 54^_ 76 _ 60 __ 190 ____ 294 wxdude64 ________________________00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 02 _ 56 _ 74 __ 132 ___ 140 __ 18^_ 32 _ 24 __ 074 ____ 206 ___ Normal ________________________24 _ 10^_ 12^__ 046 __ 00 _ 48 _ 62 __ 110 ___ 156 __ 00 _ 06 _ 30 __ 036 ____ 192 ===================== Persistence (Nov 2023) _______________ 18 _ 00 _ 00 __ 018 __ 32^_ 84 _ 48 ___164 __ 182 __ 64 _ 92 _ 00 __ 156 ____ 338 ________________________________________ EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL ... all are wins for wxallannj with high forecasts. IAH ... a win for RodneyS with high forecast. DEN, SEA ... wins for Don Sutherland1 with high forecasts. PHX ... win for Roger Smith with high forecast. _____________________________ Best wishes for holidays and new year 2024.

I don't expect central Canada to see significant cold or arctic outbreaks, but in an El Nino pattern, source of cold air for developing east coast snowfall is more often Quebec assisted by blocking over Greenland. Central Quebec can get very cold even if arctic air does not build in from central arctic. It can radiate under clear skies over snow cover and become as cold as SK or NWT, or at least close, to give adequate cold for snow events. Also dynamics of interaction between Quebec (or eastern Ontario) cold and subtropical jet rarely creates a monsoonal n.w. flow like more traditional arctic air invading from n.w., so it is snowstorm-friendly. As long as Quebec into eastern Ontario becomes a source region for cold, its absence in central Canada won't be a factor. As an earlier map illustrates, snowfall deficits in El Nino winters occur in Alberta, central plains and lower Great Lakes. It would be BUF getting mauled by El Nino more so compared to NYC or DCA.

I recall early Jan 2010 was cold and dry in eastern regions, in particular Florida very cold relative to normal. Patience was rewarded big time, but almost all of Jan except last 2-3 days were uneventful. El Nino climatology is back-loaded winters, as you know. Would be nice to wring out one moderate snowfall event in early Jan and expect a minor return to mild, seems to be part of deal most times, before better setups begin.

The entire extended Kuchera family must be at Weatherbell to come up with so much snow from a 5-8" type look.

Let's note 15-day GFS says cold and snow (for Jan 6, 2024), about like two weeks ago it was saying cold and snow for Dec 25-26. Is it any more reliable on second try? Possibly. Best period is probably late Jan and early Feb, but could evolve sooner for a longer wintry episode. Early January signal comes and goes on GFS, I saw one case a couple of days ago for Jan 4-5, it turned into a cutter and now you get Jan 5-6 for cold and snow. Sooner or later one of GFS signals will materialize, I don't believe winter 2023-24 will stay as awful as 2022-23.

IIRC it was very cold in Florida at start of Jan 2010 also, 3-4 weeks before the series of snowstorms in the northeastern states.

Yep, I still recall the "winter a thing of the past" chatter in the early 90s after 1987 to 1991 turned out so warm, not to mention talk in 2012 awkwardly followed by two polar vortex winters. The first time I recall hearing the "ski resorts will cease to exist" narrative was probably in 1991 after a couple of bad seasons. But most in Ontario, Quebec and the n.e. US have held on. I suppose the more marginal ones are either gone or struggling. What is no doubt true is that probability is shifting, and I suppose eventually it could overwhelm winter, but at this point, maybe the old one in three good winters more like one in four or one in five. I always wonder too, will the atmosphere cook up a surprise ending to the warming, and create new and different climate regimes in arctic and subarctic regions that do not see large snowfalls in either this climate or the "background normal" 20th century climate. Cambridge Bay in Canada's western arctic normally has a snow cover of about 10 to 20 inches from December to about mid-may; what if a lot of Pacific moisture started to reach them on a regular basis in winter and topped up that cover (most of it falls in late Oct and Nov), increased it to 30-40 in, and it took all of June to melt (as was probably the case with the smaller snow cover of colder centuries like 18th and 19th for which we have only a few anecdotal exploration reports. The reason for glaciation to start is excess snow over snow melt, in subarctic regions. It is not a colder climate so much as a different moisture balance. The surprise ending could be, in years where we succeed in stabilizing greenhouse gases, suddenly this new storm track and results kick in, and climate begins to cool. While we don't want a warmer climate, we also don't want to go too far in the other direction. (no political implications because by the time this might occur, we will be long gone).

Was looking on GFS Asia and cold regime in China is supposed to last about ten days, trough begins to shift east into western Pac around NYD. That monster high in middle of Atlantic is supposed to weaken at same time. If we can get part of it sucked north into Greenland, and that links across Canadian arctic to Alaska high, some chance of a better pattern but I expect slow development and best results in Feb-early march. Rain and 37F here at what is supposed to be a ski resort, they cannot open yet, base is slushy 4-6" and so I looked back at climate records, winter 1997-98 nothing but constant mixed rain and snow events around here, probably never got good snow conditions despite heavy Jan-Feb totals. About 3-4F above normal all winter. I am hoping we don't see a repeat of 1997-98 all over, for one thing, it produced a terribly destructive ice storm in eastern Canada, imagine that spread into parts of upstate NY, VT to maine, but was worst around Ottawa and montreal. Dates like Jan 6-10, can't recall as I had moved west in 1995.

In the similar-starting winter of 1913-14 (after a year with a simiilar snow drought starting in Jan 1913), the winter began with a mild early Jan, severe cold briefly around Jan 13-14, back to mild late Jan, then more persistent cold Feb into early march, snowfall amounts show it did not snow much in Jan, and waited for Feb and march to pile up a respectable 34th snowiest winter (1913-14). I added precip and average temps for relevant portions of 1913 and 1914 to April to give more context. Winter __ Nov_ Dec_ Jan _Feb _ mar _Apr __ winter _ year 1912-13 ____ 0.8 __11.4 __ 0.3 __ 2.6 __ 0.2 __ Tr __ _1912-13 15.3" ___ 1913 __ 3.4" (all in 1912-13 winter, 2.6 in Feb) 1912-13 precip __ 5.01 _3.43 _ 2.74 _6.47 _ 6.27 __ summer and autumn fairly wet, esp Oct (12.97") 1913 total precip 58.00" will end up very close to 2023, 14th wettest year at present just ahead of 2023. 1913-14 sn _ Tr ___ 0.3 __ 1.3 __17.4 __21.5 __ Tr __ _1913-14 40.5" ___ 1914 _ 42.8" (40.2 + 2.6 Dec 1914) 1913-14 precip __ 3.59 _ 5.27 _3.33 _4.74 _3.34 __ summer and autumn generally dry esp Sep (0.29") 1913-14 avg F ___ 38.7 _ 31.5 _25.4 _36..5 _47.9 __ looks a bit like winter 2014-15 ... add 1.0 to adjust for present u.h.i. 1913-14 adj _____ 39.7 _ 32.5 _ 26.4 _37.5 _ 48.9 2014-15 _________40.5 _ 29.9 _ 23.9 _38.1 _ 54.3 Summer 1914 resembles 1895 with odd bookend heat waves in late may and mid to late Sep. 1913 by standards of early 20th century was a fairly warm year overall and had some significant summer heat, very few cold spells especially by standards of that era. Just like spring 2023 an early heat wave set records (it was 1-5 may, two weeks later than 2023 spring heat). Not sure if 1913-14 was an El Nino winter or if we know for sure. It was a low solar year between a low peak (1905-07 twin peaks) and a moderate peak (1917) leading into the active 20th century run. As with 2022, Jan 1912 was cold. 1912 was a generally cold year and could have been influenced by volcanic dust from Katmai volcano erupting in Alaska. 2021 and 1911 have similarity of heat dome occurrences, but 1911 was central and east, 2021 west. Overall, I believe this study would encourage one to predict a back-loaded winter with possibly quite a cold Feb after variable Jan, and snowstorms peaking in Feb -march. Of course many don't need encouragement. Storm of mar 1-2 1914 was a doozy with a very low central pressure below 950 mbs, I believe it set a record for low pressure at NYC. It circled around off the NJ-LI coasts for a while and dropped 14.5" (2.95" liquid on 1st so it could have been a lot heavier snow inland). Record lows of -3F and -5F (Jan 13, 14) and -3F, -1F (Feb 12, 13) and 1F (Feb 25 tied 1894), but it was close to 60F around Jan 29-31, so quite a variable pattern before colder began to dominate in February and early march. 8.1" snow fell on Feb 14 after record cold spell.

A top ten Dec precip outcome will also give at least a top eleven annual outcome ... current top tens for Dec and years (155 years are ranked, or will be at end of Dec) ... Rank _ DEC ____ YEAR 10 _ 6.51" (2018) ___ 59.73" (2021) 09 _ 6.62" (2008) ___ 59.89" (2006) 08 _ 6.77" (1902) ___ 60.92" (1990) 07 _ 7.01" (1901) ___ 61.21" (1975) 06 _ 7.07" (1969) ___ 61.67" (2007) 05 _ 7.09" (2019) ___ 65.11" (1989) 04 _ 7.27" (2009) ___ 65.55" (2018) 03 _ 7.53" (1936) ___ 67.03" (1972) 02 _ 9.77" (1983) ___ 72.81" (2011) 01 _ 9.98" (1973) ___ 80.56" (1983) _______________________________________________ Current totals, 5.10" and 57.68" Annual total ranks 15th, to get to top ten 2023 will need to add 2.05" and get past 14th 1913 (58.00"), 13th place 1889 (58.18"), 12th place 2003 (58.42") and 11th place 1903 (58.52"). Dec only needs 1.41" to get to 10th (for Dec) and is currently at 30th, so would be passing 20 years if that falls. Not sure if these will happen but 14th to 11th (annual) are all in a relatively narrow range and only 0.32" to 0.84" is needed to pass any or all four; 10th is a bit of a stretch after 11th. ------------- ---------------- Also not discussed a lot compared to 2022-23 seasonal futility, 2023 calendar year snowfall will be lowest on record unless 1.1" falls before NYE/NYD at NYC. 1913 is currently lowest at 3.4". Current top ten in low snowfall futility, years and seasons (not counting 2023-24 as a season but including 2023 to date as a calendar year): _01 ____ 2.3 (2023) ____ 2.3 (2022-2023) _02 ____ 3.4 (1913) _____ 2.8 (1972-1973) _03 ____ 5.6 (1973) _____ 3.5 (2001-2002) _04 ____ 7.5 (1998) _____ 3.8 (1918-1919) _05 ____ 7.6 (1953) _____ 4.8 (2019-2020) _06 ____ 8.0 (1931) _____ 5.3 (1931-1932) _07 ____ 8.8 (1951) _____ 5.5 (1997-1998) _08 ____ 9.6 (2012) ____ 7.4 (2011-2012) _09 ____ 9.9 (1997) ____ 8.1 (1877-1878) _10 ____ 10.7 (1999)__(t9) 8.1 (1900-1901) _________________________ Despite its previous top futility ranking, 1913 was part of only 35th lowest winter total in 1912-1913 and then winter 1913-1914 turned snowy (and cold) after New Years and ranks 34th highest snowfall (40.5"), the cold was severe in parts of Jan and Feb, and a large snowstorm occurred march 1-2.

I don't know but I wouldn't put a lot of cash on it, all trends are rising, but Feb 2015 shows that anything is possible. But not probable.

Don and/or bluewave can confirm exact details, but I believe 2023 will surprass previous contenders for warmest year at NYC (2012 and 2020 were close to being tied at 57.3 F), as long as it remains above 1991-2020 normal value. As latest projections are close to +3 anomaly for Dec, 2023 would average close to 57.5 or even 57.6. January set a pace and despite one or two cooler months like Nov, it will become new top of the heap.

18z GFS ends (on Jan 4 2024) with a setup that looks like the next 36h of its run would turn into a large east coast winter storm, about like it was doing ten days ago for Dec 26-27 (which has degraded into the double rainer scenario). The difference could be that a lot more cold air is in place for this fantasy output. A long slow slide into deep winter is what I would expect and Dec will not be repeated in Jan or early Feb. Later Feb, possibly back to torch, but after a reasonable stretch of winter. DOUBLE RAINER DEUBLE DAINER DEBBLE DOINER DEBBIE DOWNER (fun with words)

Top 20 Dec mild to Jan cold at NYC _ for inclusion in list, Dec >37.0 F __ >0.6 above LTA _ median drop is 4.4 F, over 155 years, from 36.4 to 32.0 F _ average of cases below is a drop from 40.9 to 29.7 F (+4.3 to -2.3) _ a few winters saw drops in same range, but Dec was below 37.0F Rank ____ Dec ______ Jan _______ diff _01 ____2015 50.8 _ 2016 34.5 __ -16.3 _02 ____ 1911 39.4 _ 1912 23.7 __ -15.7 _03 ____1984 43.8 _ 1985 28.8 __ -15.0 _04 ____2021 43.8 _ 2022 30.3 __ -13.5 _05 ____2003 37.6 _ 2004 24.7 __ -12.9 _06____1956 40.9 _ 1957 28.5 __ -12.4 _07 ____1993 37.3 _ 1994 25.6 __ -11.7 _08 ____1967 38.2 _ 1968 26.7 __ -11.5 _09 ____1891 42.3 _ 1892 31.5 __ -10.8 _10 ____1881 39.4 _ 1882 28.8 __ -10.6 _11 ____1953 41.3 _ 1954 30.8 __ -10.5 _12 ____2008 38.1 _ 2009 27.9 __ -10.2 _13 ____1987 39.5 _ 1988 29.5 __ -10.0 _14 ____2013 38.5 _ 2014 28.6 ___ -9.9 _15t____1923 42.0 _ 1924 32.7 ___ -9.3 _15t____1998 43.2 _ 1999 33.9 ___ -9.3 _17 ____ 1996 41.3 _ 1997 32.2 ___ -9.1 _18 ____ 1999 40.0 _ 2000 31.3 __ -8.7 _19t____1957 40.2 _ 1958 31.9 ___ -8.3 _19t____1965 40.5 _ 1966 32.2 ___ -8.3 _19t____1982 42.8 _ 1983 34.5 ___ -8.3 Recent cases considered marginal include: _xx ____2018 40.1 _ 2019 32.5 ___ -7.6 (_xx ____2004 38.4 _ 2005 31.3 ___ -7.1) (_xx ____2012 41.5 _ 2013 35.1 ____ -6.4) At least we can conclude large drops in Dec to Jan are not unusual.

This storm finishes just outside top ten for December for both 1-day and 2-day precip totals. ... As of now, lists are updated as follows: Top 15 December precip at NYC over 1 day (snowfall included, gives a measure of QPF) and top 25 to last year's Dec 22-23 event includes eventual 2-day for all one-day events listed. 20" snow Dec 26-27 2010 yielded 1.61" liquid equivalent. Note top two on list are both on Dec 13. Ranks 6 and 8 are on Dec 11. (added Dec 17-18 2023) _ current ranks 12 and 13 Rank ___ 1-day ___ Date _________ (snow if any) _____ max, min temps (F) _01 ____ 3.09 _____ Dec 13, 1909 (1.0" snow) _____ 53, 33 _02 ____ 2.97 _____ Dec 13, 1941 (0.3" snow) _____ 46, 27 _03 ____ 2.54 _____ Dec 9, 2014 (1.0" snow 10th) _ 42, 36 _04 ____ 2.52 _____ Dec 29, 1901^_________________ 55, 44 _05 ____ 2.49 _____ Dec 21, 1973 (Tr snow) _______ 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm) _06 ____ 2.41 _____ Dec 11, 1992 __________________ 42,37 _07 ____ 2.36 _____ Dec 26, 1947 (26.4" snow) ___ 31, 25 _08 ____ 2.35 _____ Dec 11, 2008 _________________ 43, 37 _09 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 17, 1888 _________________ 55, 50 _10 ____ 2.25 _____ Dec 16, 1974 __________________47, 38 _11 ____ 2.22 _____ Dec 14, 1897 __________________ 53, 45 _12 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 18, 2023 __________________ 62, 42 _13 ____ 2.19 _____ Dec 9, 1973 ___________________ 55, 37 _14 ____ 2.18 _____ Dec 22, 1983 (0.6" snow) _____ 53, 31 _15 ____ 2.16 _____ Dec 2, 1974 ___________________ 50, 39 _16 ____ 1.98 _____ Dec 7, 1908 ___________________ 57, 38 (next top contender large snowfall was Dec 20, 1874, 1.92 incl 10.0" snow) (Dec 26-27 2010 20" snow reduced to 1.61" precip) Rank ___2-day ____Dates _______________________ Temps _01 ____ 3.62 ____ Dec 12-13, 1983 ______________ temps in 53-59 range for rainfall portion _02 ____ 3.29 ____ Dec 13-14, 1909 (1.0" snow) __ 53, 33 and 53, 40 _03 ____ 3.28 ____ Dec 11-12, 2008 ______________ 43, 37 and 44, 32 _04 ____ 3.03 ____ Dec 13-14, 1941 ______________ 46, 27 and 46, 33 _05 ____ 2.96 ____ Dec 29-30, 1901 ______________ 55, 44 and 45, 34 _06*____ 2.94 ____ Dec 30-31, 1948 (4.0" snow)__57, 52 and 52, 25 _07 ____ 2.87 ____ Dec 11-12, 1992** (0.4" snow)_42, 37 and 43, 32 _08*____ 2.73 ____ Dec 2-3, 1986 ________________ 53, 35 and 59, 46 _09 ____ 2.65 ____ Dec 20-21, 1973 (Tr snow) ____54, 25 and 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm) _10 ____ 2.62 ____ Dec 9-10, 2014 (1.0" snow) ___ 42, 36 and 40, 32 _11*____ 2.61 ____ Dec 6-7, 1996 (Tr snow) _______46, 35 and 45, 34 _12 ____ 2.58 ____ Dec 1-2 1974^ _(Tr snow) _____ 42, 33 and 50, 39 _13 ____ 2.47 ____ Dec 17-18, 2023 ______________ 59, 47 and 62, 42 _14 ____ 2.40 ____ Dec 26-27, 1947 (26.4" snow) _31, 25 and 35, 29 _15*____ 2.36 ____ Dec 14-15, 1981 (1.4" snow) __ 37, 29 and 38, 35 _16 ____ 2.33 ____ Dec 17-18, 1888 _______________55, 50 and 52, 29 _17 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 14-15, 1897 ______________53, 45 and 57, 47 _18*____ 2.25 _____ Dec 9-10, 1878 (0.5" snow) __46, 33 and 60, 46 _19*____ 2.24 _____ Dec 7-8, 1914 (0.5" snow) ___ 36, 32 and 36, 30 (presumably a lot of snow not far away) _20 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 22-23, 1983 (0.8" snow) _ 53, 31 and 41, 22 (6, 4 next 2d min) _21 ____(2.19" Dec 9 1973 no additional amounts Dec 8 or 10) _22 ____ 2.13 _____ Dec 3-4, 1925 _______________ 49, 39 and 51, 46 _23 ____ 2.08 _____Dec 19-20, 1936 (Tr snow) ___48, 23 and 55, 34 _24 ____2.06 _____ Dec 22-23, 2022 (Tr snow) __47, 35 and 58, 8 (max 15 min 7 on Dec 24) _25 ____2.03 _____ Dec 6-7, 1908 _______________ 43, 26 and 57, 38 * (to rank 21, all 2-day contenders except ranks 6, 8, 11, 15, 18 and 19 are also in one-day table. Rank 6 is 1.54" + 1.40" ... Rank 8 is 1.62"+1.11" ... Rank 11 is 1.20"+1.41" ... Rank 15 is 1.02" + 1.34" ... Rank 18 is 0.63"+1.62" ... Rank 19 is (0.25"+)1.81"+0.43") note, a 3rd significant Dec-1983 value of 1.97" for Dec 3-4, 1983. ** 3.31" total Dec 10-12 1992 ... 2.85 Dec 10-11 1992 2-day is not counted as separate entry but ranks 8, if all cases are considered. Same applies to 2.62" Dec 10-11, 2008. 2.95" fell Dec 28-30 1942 but Dec 29 value of 0.39" (1.22+0.39+1.34) _ no qualifying 2-d totals. ___________________________________________

Partial dry slot developing but southern energy will be pulled in across NYC and w LI this afternoon, expect another 0.50" to 0.75" rain with that, winds will also pick up again to SW 40-55 in exposed areas. Squall line in w/c Long Island appears headed for central CT and will be focus of svr trw developing later in parts of e/c NE. Double centered for now but will consolidate into one low over period 15z to 21z.

I notice numerous reports of intense TRW activity over central Long Island (in NYC forum) and it appears to be racing north into CT, with an associated warm front also looking active, would expect widespread TRW soon in large portions of sNE. Low developed twin centers but is now consolidating and southern energy off Delmarva will be pulled into primary during afternoon. Could be some extreme obs posted, "marginal" svr wx now posted could be more like enhanced.

Actually surprised this did not get a name (Vince), have seen less impressive storms named in season. Took four months to get a TS designation on Atlantic January storm, so maybe same lag with (eventual) Vince. Can see basis for dispute over wind speeds, but given the nearly STS nature of almost - Vince, I would be very reluctant to downgrade wind speeds based on global model isobars alone. All day long there have been gusts over 65mph ahead of developing southern center (it is going twin-centered o/n). West of CT River and central LI, I can see a good argument for reducing wind gust forecasts, at least beyond 15z. East of that I would go with Kev's estimates or at least an average of Kev and 007. Gradient actually increases later in day for maine, New hampshire. Would expect svr wx potential e CT, n RI and parts of se ma towards 18z, even slgt tor risk. Given severe component, some location will gust to 80-100 mph but at airport wx stations? It will likely be some place without official measurements but verifiable based on wind damage.

60 kt gusts are now as far north as Diamond Shoals off Cape hatteras. (60 kt = 67-68 mph)

Double centered structure indicated on GFS would cut off stronger winds after a brief interval late overnite, winds would only continue to be an issue about KISP-east after briefly affecting all regions. Reggie is (a) overdone or (b) will nearly double existing Dec records.