Roger Smith

Summer Maximum Contest __ Update Sep 4, 2023 (forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino 16 _____________________105 __ 95 __ 98 ____101 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 96 Scotty Lightning _____________103 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 104 _ 109 ___ 94 _ 119 __ 90 Roger Smith _________________ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___103 _ 119 __ 98 so_whats_happening ________ 101 __ 101 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 100 __ 101 _ 122 __ 97 RJay _________________________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 105 ___100 _ 119 __ 97 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 101 __ 98 __ 95 ____100 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 93 DonSutherland1 ______________101 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 103 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 ___ Consensus _______________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 95 wxdude64 ___________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 ___102 _ 100 _ 105 ___104 _ 119 __ 96 BKViking _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 97 ___99 __ 100 _ 120 __ 95 Tom ___________________________99 __ 98 __ 97 ___ 101 __ 99 __ 103 ___97 _ 119 __ 97 wxallannj ______________________98 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 94 __ 98 _ 102 __ 101 _ 116 __ 97 RodneyS ______________________98 __ 96 __ 95 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 92 Terpeast ______________________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 99 (summer max to date) ________ 99 __ 93 __ 93 ____100 __ 99 _ 109 ____99 _ 119 __ 95 (current departures of forecasts) _ (now in contest rank order) Rank _FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL _01 __ Tom ________________________ 0 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 20 (8) _02 __ hudsonvalley21 ____________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 22 (8) 03 _______ Consensus ____________ 1 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 6 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 23 (9) _03 __ RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 24 (6) _04 __ RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 25 (18) _t05__ DonSutherland1 ____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 6 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 28 (20) _t05__ wxdude64 _________________ 1 ___ 6 ___ 8 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 28 (4) _07__ BKViking _____________________1 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 3 ___ 2 ___10 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 29 (15) _t08_ Terpeast _____________________3 ___ 4 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 30 (18) _t08 __ Roger Smith _______________ 2 ___ 9 ___ 7 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 30 (1) _09__ wxallannj _____________________1 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 6 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 31 (18) _11 __ Rhino 16 ______________________6 ___ 2 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 7 ___ 8 ____ 0___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 31 (9) _t12 __Scotty Lightning _____________4 ___ 8 ___ 6 ____2 ___ 5 ___ 0 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 5 ____ 35 (12) _t12 __so_whats_happening ________2 ___ 8 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 9 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 35 (9) ============================= (score in brackets represents departures not subject to potential improvement if warmer temps occur -- your final score will be at least value in brackets plus any remnant departures) edited Sep 5 for DCA 99F and after Sep 7 for BOS 93F The table is possibly now a final report on the contest.

Scoring table updated again, as two more 1F increases today (DCA to 98, BWI to 99), many tie-breakers applied. Is there any chance of further increases? Will check to see if today's early climate reports are final values as I understand it has stayed quite hot beyond their reporting times. (scoring table posted yesterday is edited)

List of the years with their annual maximum in September (NYC): Date ___ YEAR(s) ___ Max _______ notes (including record highs that were not annual maxima) Sep 1 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1953 Sep 2 ____ 1953__102 ____ 1932_96 ___ 2014_92 Sep 3 ____ 1929__99 ____ 1921_96 _________ Sep 4 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1929 Sep 5 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1985 Sep 6 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1881 Sep 7 ____ 1881 ___101 Sep 8 ____ 2015 ___ 97 Sep 9 ____ 1915 ___ 94 ____ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 10 1884 91F) Sep 10 ___ 1897__ 93 (tied July 6, 1897 93F) ___ 1884 _91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 9 1884 91F) ________________________________________________ 97F 1931 and 1983 records for 10th Sep 11 ___ 1983 ___99 __ 1931 ___99 __ (1931 tied Aug 7 99F) Sep 12 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1961 Sep 13 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1952 Sep 14 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1931 Sep 15 ___ 1927 ___ 92 (tied four dates in July 1927 92F) ___ Sep 16 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1915 Sep 17 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1991 Sep 18 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 91F 1891 Sep 19 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1983 Sep 20 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1895, 1983 Sep 21 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 95F 1895 Sep 22 ___ 1914 ___ 95 (tied May 27, 1914 95F) ___ 1970 _ 94 ___ record 95F 1895, 1914 Sep 23 ___ 1895 ___ 97 ____________________ also 96F May 31, June 1, 2 1895 ___________________________ In the above list, if there is no record high in the column to right, it means the record high was the warmest of the annual maxima, e.g. 97 was the record high for Sept 23. Some annual maxima set in September were not record highs e.g. 94 Sept 22, 1970. Also 93F on Sep 1st to 3rd 1898 but annual max was 100F in July 3. Records after Sep 23 generally near 90F, sooner or later a year could set an annual max in October as 94F in 1941 is above annual maxima of several years. It was not the annual max for 1941 however. A total of 11 years had their untied maximum in September and five more tied an earlier set value. This works out to a 10% chance that September would set or tie the annual maximum.

Two of the four contest locations edged up by 1F today (so I read on NWS) ... IAD 99F and BWI 98F ... here are the updated contest standings (edit 4th, two more 1F rises for DCA and BWI today, IAD and RIC tied their previous maxima for 2023. edit 5th for DCA now at 99F ... the others all tied their previous seasonal maxima): Current standings as of September 5, 2023 (updated version for Sep 6 is in later post) Table is now in scoring order. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far (IAD and one BWI forecast passed now, to date). __ Max values to date ____________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 98 The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. (table adjusted Sep 3 for IAD 99 and BWI 98 and again Sep 4 for DCA 98 and BWI 99) (Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ applies to IAD, DCA and one forecast for BWI only so far) FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals) WxUSAF ( 4 ) __________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 0 0 1 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 __ Its a Breeze (12) _______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 1 0 0 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 __ earlier entry of 0012 NorthArlington101 (21) _________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 0 2 0 1_____3 ____ 3 __ later entry of 0012 MN Transplant ( 5 ) ____________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 1 0 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0111 RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) ___________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ______0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 5 __ later entry of 0111 Weather53 (13) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 0 0 1 3 ____ 4 ____ 6 __ lower 3rd lowest error (1) nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) __________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 _____ 0 0 2 2 ____ 4 ____ 7 __ higher 3rd lowest error (2) katabatic ( 9 ) __________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 0 1 1 2 ____ 4 ____ 8 __ higher lowest error (1) LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 _____ 1 2 1 0 ____ 4 ____ 9 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0112 WxWatcher007 (11) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ______1 2 0 1 ____4 ____ 10 __ 3rd earliest entry of 0112 GramaxRefugee (19) ___________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _____1 0 1 2 ____ 4 ____ 11 __ latest entry of 0 1 1 2 biodhokie (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______0 2 0 3 ____ 5 ___ 12 WinstonSalemArlington (22) ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 ______0 0 4 3 ____ 7 ____13 __ lowest low error (0) Stormpc (14) ___________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 _____ 1 3 2 1 ____ 7 ____14 __ next lower 2nd low error (1) Terpeast ( 6 ) __________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 1 2 2 2 ____ 7 ____15 __ higher 2nd lowest error (2) wxdude64 (16) ________________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ______2 0 2 4 ____ 8 ____16 __ lowest low error (0) toolsheds (18) _________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 _ 102 _______1 1 2 4 ____ 8 ____ 17 __ lower 3rd lowest error (2) tplbge (24) ____________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ______1 1 3 3 ____ 8 ____ 18 __higher 3rd lowest error (3) mattie g (17) ___________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ______2 4 2 4 ___ 12 ____19 __ lower 2nd lowest error (2) H2O (20) ______________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 3 2 3 4 ___ 12 ____ 20 __ higher 2nd lowest error (3) soundmdwatcher (23) _________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ______1 3 5 4 ___ 13 ____21 ChillinIt (15) ____________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ______3 1 4 6 ___ 14 ____ 22 Roger Smith ___________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ______ 3 3 4 5 ___ 15 ____ 23 Rhino16 ( 2 ) ___________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 ______ 2 4 3 7 ___ 16 ____ 24 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) ______ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 ______ 5 4 4 6 ___ 19 ____ 25 GeorgeBM ( 8 ) ________________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 ______ 6 4 7 6 ___ 23 ____ 26 ______________________________ The table will be updated if necessary.

Jose came and went over the last two days and now Katia is moving north in the central Atlantic. This brings the count to 12/3/2. Edit of previous post underway.

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Summer segment Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3 contests entered. ... DonS now in the lead but any of the chase pack have a chance to win this contest if they can take ten points for autumn (Don needs just a second place seven points to guarantee a win). Tie would go to the person with highest minimum seasonal points, and if that does not determine an outcome, second lowest points etc -- at this point DonS and wxallannj have "high min" of 5 seasonal points. FORECASTER _______ Winter __Points __ Spring __Points ___JUN__JUL__AUG ___TOTAL__Summer Pts _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___TOTAL points DonSutherland1 ________ 1722 ___ 6 ______ 1761 ___ 5 ______616 __ 706 __ 722 ____ 2044 ____10 _____ 21 wxallannj _______________ 1699 ___ 5 ______ 1765 ___ 6 _____ 504 __ 746 __ 604 ____ 1854 _____6 _____ 17 RJay ____________________1879 ___ 10 _____ 1761 ____ 5 _____ 395 __ 710 __ 628 ____ 1733 _____ 1 _____ 16 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1675 ___ 4 _______1824 ___ 10 _____ 434 __ 680 __ 642 ____1756 _____ 2 _____ 16 ___ Consensus _________ 1682 __ 4.3 _____ 1772 ___ 6.9 ____ 514 __ 689 __ 626 ____ 1829 ____ 4.8_____16.0 RodneyS _______________ 1760 ____7 ______ 1543 ____ 1 _____ 636 __ 630 __ 606 ____ 1872 _____ 7 _____ 15 wxdude64 ______________1518 ____ 1 ______ 1773 ____ 7 _____ 482 __ 684 __ 666 ____ 1832 _____ 5 _____ 13 Tom ___________________ 1545 ____ 1 _______ 1281 ____ 1 _____ 572 __ 636 __ 610 ____ 1818 ______4 ______ 6 Roger Smith ___________ 1626 ___ 3 _______ 1409 ____ 1 _____ 280 __ 604 __ 576 ____ 1460 _____ 1 ______ 5 Scotty Lightning _______ 1147 ___ 1 ________ 1676 ____ 3 _____ 450 __ 676 __ 516 ____ 1642 _____ 1 ______ 5 BKViking ______________ 1576 ____ 1 ________ 1580 ____1 _____ 502 __ 702 __ 600 ____ 1804 _____ 3 ______ 5 so_whats_happening __ 1620 ___ 2 _______ -- -- _____0 _____ 464 __ ----__ 560 ____ 1024 _____ 1 ______ 3 Rhino 16 _______________ -- -- ___ 0 ________ 1675 ____2 _____ 538 __ ---- __ 530 ____ 1068 _____ 1 ______ 3 ___ Normal ____________ 1076 ____ 1 ________ 1570 ____1 ______ 582 __ 576 __ 524 ____ 1682 _____ 1 ______ 3 StormchaserChuck ____674 (1/3)_0 _______ 1212 ____ 1 _____ -- -- __ -- -- __ -- -- ___ -- -- _____ 0 ______ 1 _______________________________________________

Table of forecasts for September 2023 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay ______________________+4.5 _+4.5 _+4.5 __ +5.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+2.0 __0.0 Roger Smith ______________+3.8 _+4.5 _+6.0 __ +5.5 _+3.8 _+3.8 __+2.5 _+2.5 _+1.0 StormchaserChuck 1 _____+3.5 _+3.5 _+3.2 __ +4.0 _+3.8 _+3.7 __+0.5 __ 0.0 _-0.8 Tom ______________________ +3.1 _+3.4 _+3.3 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _+1.5 __+1.9 _+1.1 _ +0.6 wxallannj _________________ +3.0 _+3.2 _+3.4 __ +3.0 _+1.8 _+1.4 __+2.5 _+1.5 _-0.4 hudsonvalley21 ___________+2.8 _+2.4 _+2.7 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.4 __+2.1 _+2.3 _+0.7 ___ Consensus ____________+2.5 _+2.4 _+2.7 __ +3.0 _+2.1 _+2.0 __ +1.9 _+1.5 _+0.3 so_whats_happening _____+2.5 _+2.1 _+2.8 ___ +3.5 _+2.1 _+1.9 __+1.4 _+1.6 _ +1.3 BKViking __________________+2.1 _+2.5 _+2.4 __ +2.8 _+2.7 _+2.0 __+1.9 _+2.0 _+0.3 DonSutherland 1 __________+2.0 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +3.5 _+2.0 _+2.8 __+2.8 _+2.0 _+0.6 Scotty Lightning __________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 RodneyS _________________ +1.3 _+1.9 _+1.3 ___ +3.0 _ 0.0 _+3.6 __+3.6 _+0.4 _+0.1 Rhino16 __________________ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +1.2 _+0.9 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.3 _-0.6 ___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxdude64 ________________-0.2 _ -0.5 _ -0.6 __ -0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __+1.4 _+2.1 _+0.3 ========================= persistence (Aug anoms) _-0.7 __-1.1 _ -0.9 ____ +0.5 _+2.4 _+5.8 __+1.3 _+4.4 _+2.5 consensus vs persistence +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.6 ____ +2.5 _-0.3 _-3.8 __ +0.6 _-2.9 _-2.2 (contest field's expected trends from Aug to Sep) ^^ consensus and persistence could score up to 452 points different if one is always correct (or if outcomes are always entirely in its favor ... in August, consensus scored just a bit more as outcomes were often between them). Consensus and Normal could score up to 368 points different, and for all nine locations consensus is warmer. Persistence and Normal could score up to 392 points different. ========================= ========================= apart from persistence, color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH and DEN and equal to coldest for ATL and PHX. Consensus is a median value for 13 forecasts. Persistence and Normal are not included in the calculation. Summer Max data will be coming over to this thread during the next week, for now you'll find updates in August contest.

+3.8 _ +4.5 _ +6.0 __ +5.5 _ +3.8 _ +3.8 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.0

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - AUGUST 2023 ---- >>>> === === ... now fully updated for August scoring and data ... Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Scoring ranks mainly unchanged in July except for Tom moving past Roger Smith into 9th. Some margins have changed. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 516 _496 _ 540 __1552 __598 _602 _508 __1708__3260 __539 _462 _612 __1613 ____4873 RJay _______________________496 _502 _ 493 __1491 __ 615 _526 _538__ 1679 __3170 __407 _497 _ 611 __1515 ____ 4685 wxallannj __________________487 _498 _ 523 __1508 __ 637 _570 _446__ 1653 __3161 __499 _480 _506 __1485 ____4646 ___ Consensus _____________475 _472 _ 529 __1476__ 609 _498 _487 __1594 __3070 _ 455 _451 _606 __1512 ____4582 hudsonvalley21 ____________489 _484 _ 553 __1526 __ 618 _509 _465 __1592 __3118 __434 _392 _617 __1443 ____4561 wxdude64 _________________490 _483 _474 __1447 __ 493 _542 _440 __1475 __2922 __549 _434 _572 __1555 ____4477 RodneyS __________________ 486 _472 _516 __1474 __ 447 _439 _502 __1388 __2862 _ 525 _ 466 _ 582 __1573___ 4435 BKViking ___________________468 _452 _495 __1415 __ 571 _486 _501 __1558 __2973 __ 401 _ 392 _506 __1299 ____4272 Scotty Lightning ___________407 _424 _484 __1315 __ 559 _427 _446 __1432 __2747 __ 396 _330 _456 __ 1182 ____3929 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is now a bit ahead of mine and close to Scotty L ... ... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score compares to about 5th-6th places above in the scoring table. Tom (7/8) __________________449 _436 _459 __1344 __434 _406 _426 __1266 __2610 __434 _342 _507 __1283 _____3893 (4450) Roger Smith _______________ 418 _360 _388 __1166 __453 _391 _ 474 __1318 __ 2484 __355 _408 _592 __ 1355 ____ 3839 ___ Normal _________________378 _384 _424 __1186 __500 _410 _348 __1258 __ 2444 __446 _ 322 _466 __1234 ____ 3678 Rhino16 (5/8) ______________304 _322 _344 __ 970 __388 _332 _216 ___936 __1906 __ 273 _212 _352 ___ 837 ____ 2743 (4388) so_whats_happening (4/8) _186 _184 _ 242 __ 612 __ 249 _183 _212 ___644 __1256 __ 172 _230 _294 ___ 696 ____1952 (3904) Stormchaser Chuck (3/8) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 ___ 716 ____1886 (5030) Terpeast (1/8) ______________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 __ 146 ____ 482 (3956) rainsucks (1/8) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 (3648) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________361 _302 _404 __1067 __474 _437 _468 __1379 ___2446 __242 _388 _448 __1078 ____3524 _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) ^ shared with two other forecasters for one month (subject to change for August) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*___1* ___ 0____3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___1 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0___ 3**___1 ___0 ____0 wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____2**___1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May(t),July ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 ____________1*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May(t) wxdude64 _________________1^____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____1 _ Jun BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___2 ___ 1 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (7/8) _________________ 2*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (5/8) ______________ 1^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (4/8) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/8) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Terpeast (1/8) _____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0 rainsucks (1/8) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 60 of 72 forecasts qualify, 34 of them for warmest, and 26 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3 ... 15 of 60 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _ 17-1 ______15.0 - 1.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 __10-3 ______ 9.0 - 2 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 9-3 ______ 8.5 - 3.0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ --- ___ 8-1 ______ 7.5 - 1.0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _ 2*-0__ 6-1 ______ 4.5 - 0.5 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ --- ___4-2 ______ 4.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ --- ___ 4-1 _______ 4.0 - 1.0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 ___ 4-3 ______ 3.0 - 2.0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __1*-1 _2^-1 __ 4-2 ______ 2.83 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ --- ___ 3-0 ______ 2.0 - 0.0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0___ 3-0 ______ 1.83 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0___2-0 ______ 0.83-0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ --- __ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1 =========================================== Four seasons scoring update will follow in a day or two, for summer segment.

My source was the wikipedia entry for Cedar Key and they state that 1985 Elena stayed offshore but still generated a damaging storm surge that had a major impact on the town (so no landfall). Also 2020 Eta came in around Cedar Key but damage was slight.

Actually Cedar Key has suffered from three major hurricane landfalls, in 1896, 1950 and 1985. Further north is where they have not been hit in the past. My guess for landfall is 20 miles east of St Marks at cat-3 intensity around 15z.

I hope the model consensus proves accurate and this doesn't do a Charley-2004 style swerve towards Tampa Bay; in any case the impact there will be considerable given (a) we are closing in on full moon, (b) the track is close enough to permit strong TS level winds to blow for many hours from the south, all pointing to a considerable storm surge into the Bay. Even if the track was along the eastern edge of the cone, it would be bad news for the TBSP metro and any further east could be disastrous. An eastward jog means a considerably earlier landfall also. Instead of Wednesday morning near Cedar Key it would be closer to Tuesday midnight around Dunedin FL. Let's hope this does not happen.

With the arrival of Idalia, and Franklin at hurricane status, the current count is 10/2/0. If forecasts verify the count could soon be 10/3/1. If so, this is what the contest field will need to happen after Idalia: (in brackets, what is needed if Idalia achieves major status... a few forecasts cannot verify and best possible counts are shown, along with highest score possible now ... all other forecasts could verify as shown and their highest possible scores remain 100). Forecast outcomes in brackets are best scoring outcome situations and do not create the original forecast totals. Because number of storms is scored at 1/2 deductions of canes and majors, most of bracketed outcomes are for storms and not canes. Some redistribute errors 3:1 or more to get maximum possible score from any outcome. (edit _ Wed 30th 06z _ Count now 10/3/2 as Idalia reached major status _ table below edited to show only the values previously in brackets) (edit _ Sunday Sept 3rd 06z _ Count now 12/3/2 as Jose and Katia appeared, Jose already absorbed by Franklin). Also Gert has redeveloped after a few days of dormant near-extinction. I have removed the table of storms required to reach seasonal totals as it is becoming too complicated by most now having an imbalance of storms and hurricanes, so we'll just go with the simpler "your score as of now" table that will continue to be updated as required. ) (edit _ Sept 7 _ 02z ... table edited for Lee, and Lee became a major hurricane, count 13/4/3) (edit _ Sept 7 _ 23z ... table again edited for Margot, assuming eventual non-major hurricane, count 14/5/3). (edit _ Sept 17 _ 06z _ table again edited for Nigel, assuming eventual non-major hurricane, count 15/6/3). (edit _ Sept 18 _ 17z _ table now contains alternate scoring to apply to possibility of Nigel becoming major (15/6/4). edit again, withdrawn below ... (edit _ Sept 22 _ 00z _ table now contains potential scoring for a 16th tropical storm, replacing Nigel as major whIch did not happen. (potential count 16/6/3) (edit _ Sept 23 _ 06z _ table now edited for Ophelia, count 16/6/3. and potential 17th storm (Philippe) reaching hurricane intensity (17 7 3). Still some chance for Ophelia to reach hurricane intensity before landfall around 12z. If so, will adjust current scores and potential scores. (edit _ Sept 24 _ 00z _ table now edited for Philippe, count 17/6/3. alternate scoring still for 17/7/3.) (edit _ Sept 26 _ 21z _ table again edited for possible Rina as storm and later hurricane, and taking away eventual hurricane status for Philippe _ net addition of one storm to reach 18/7/3 from current 17/6/3. (edit _ Sept 29 _ 15z _ table edited for current score with Rina now a tropical storm. Leaving potential scoring option same for now, will require one of two active TS to become a 'cane, but at present some chance neither become a cane (less so, two 'canes also possible). (edit _ Oct 7 _ 06z _ table edited for actual results of P, R ... no 'cane ... and speculation about 19th named storm. these forecasts and potential max scores will be updated as required. (19 8 4 speculation ended due to weak outcomes, new post further into thread now speculates about final count and scoring) ... _______________________________________ (original forecasts) (count now 18 6 3) ... total in brackets would replace score shown for 19 6 3. NOTE: Post is no longer being updated. See replacement post dated Oct 11, 2023. forum _FORECASTER __________ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (will be adjusted as needed) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err) IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -3 -15 -15 ___ 67.0 (68.5) AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -3 -15 -3 ____ 79.0 (80.5) --- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-1.5 -15 -3 __ 80.5 (81.5) AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -21 -1 __ 77.5 (78.0) AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -15 -3 __ 81.5 (82.0) IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ _0 -6 -1 ____ 93.0 (92.5) AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -0.5 -10 -1 __88.5 (87.5) NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -0.5 -10 _0 __89.5 (88.5) NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -1.5 -15 -3 __80.5 (79.0) NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -1.5 -10 _0 __88.5 (87.0) IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -1.5 -6 -3 ___89.5 (88.0) AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -6 -1 ___91.5 (90.0) AM _ wkd (4) ______________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ___96.5 (95.0) AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ___96.5 (95.0) AM _ yotaman (31) ________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -1.5 -1 _0 ___97.5 (96.0) AM _ hotair (18) ___________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -1.5 _0 _0 ___98.5 (97.0) AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ____96.5 (95.0) AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -1.5 -1 -1 ____96.5 (95.0) AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ___________ 15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -3 -3 -1 ____ 93.0 (91.0) AM _ diggiebot (12) ________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -3 -1 _0 ____ 96.0 (94.0) AM _ Torch Tiger (23) ______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -3 -1 _0 ____ 96.0 (94.0) --- ___ CSU ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 ______ -3 -1 _0 ___ 96.0 (94.0) --- ___ TWC ________________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 ______ -3 -1 _0 ___ 96.0 (94.0) AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 ______ -3 -1 -1 ___ 95.0 (93.0) AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) __________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 ______ -3 _0 -1 ___ 96.0 (94.0) AM _ Marsman (14) ________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 ______ -3 -3 -1 ___ 93.0 (91.0) --- ___ NOAA median _______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ___-3.8 -1 -0.4 __ 94.8 (92.6) AM _ JConsor (13) __________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ____ 91.0 (88.5) AM _ nvck (45) _____________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 _____ -5 -3 _0 ____ 92.0 (89.5) IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _________________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ____ 94.0 (91.5) AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _________ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ____ 95.0 (92.5) AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ___________14 ____ 5 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ____ 94.0 (91.5) _______ Consensus _________________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-5.3 -0.7 -0.2__93.8 (91.2) AM _ Yoda (40) _____________________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 ___ 90.5 (87.5) AM _ Superstorm93 (22) ___________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 ___ 90.5 (87.5) AM _ George BM (41) _______________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____ -7.5 _0 _0 ___ 92.5 (89.5) AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 _0 -1 ____ 91.5 (88.5) AM _ North hills wx (24) _____________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 -1 -1 ____ 90.5 (87.5) AM _ Newman (30) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -7.5 -1 -1 ____ 90.5 (87.5) AM _ Alfoman (25) __________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -7.5 -1 -3 ____ 88.5 (85.5) AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) _____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -7.5 -1 -3 ____ 88.5 (85.5) NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _________________12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ____-10.5 -15 -3 __ 71.5 (68.0) AM _ rclab (43) ______________________12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ___ 86.5 (83.0) AM _ Rhino 16 (2) ___________________ 12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 (85.0) AM _ crownweather (11) ____________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-10.5 _0 -1 ____ 88.5 (85.0) AM _ Cat Lady (7) ___________________12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 90.5 (87.0) AM _ RJay (17) ______________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -1 -1 ____ 87.5 (84.0) AM _ cheese007 (35) _______________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -1 -1 ____ 87.5 (84.0) AM _ Eyewall (27) __________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-10.5 -3 -1 ____ 85.5 (82.0) AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) ______ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0) AM _ mob1 (8) ______________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0) AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _______________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 (80.0) AM _ Matthew70 (32) ______________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 (78.0) AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5___2 ____-16 -1.9 -1 ____ 81.1 (76.9) AM _ cnimbus (6) ___________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -18 -1 -1 ______ 80.0 (75.5) AM _ GaWx (21) _____________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-18 -1 -1 ______ 80.0 (75.5) NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ______10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-18 -3 -1 ______ 78.0 (73.5) AM _ The Iceman (39) _______________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-18 -3 -3 ______ 76.0 (71.5) AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ________________7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-33 -6 -1 _____ 60.0 (54.0) ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts) <<< SCORES ABOVE WILL BE ADJUSTED EVERY TIME COUNT INCREASES >>> NOTE: Post is no longer being updated. See replacement post dated Oct 11, 2023.

Although it was close, Friday produced two 97F readings at IAD and RIC, not moving the contest scoring however. If the heat dome ever does reposition east before 11-15 Sep it could still touch 100F. Seeing faint signs of this around Sep 8-9 at present. So contest cannot be declared final yet.

Predict temp anomaly (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 average, for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline 06z Friday September 1st. ... wxdude64 posted early for September in previous contest: DCA: -0.2 NYC: -0.5 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -0.3 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +1.2 DEN: +1.4 PHX: +2.1 SEA: +0.3

Violent line of storms close to derecho intensity racing east in s PA and look like they are heading for n MD within hours.

Collect the entire set ... four weak to moderate tropical storms in the past few days have swollen the count to 9/1/0. Some chance of Franklin becoming a hurricane next week, would then go to 9/2/0 or even (gasp) 9/2/1. Good luck to all of us getting to our numbers from 9/1/0.

Final scoring for August 2023 Scoring estimates based on latest posted provisional anomalies. DCA not adjusted yet. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL __ anomalies _______________ -0.7 _-1.1 _-0.9 ___ _ _ +0.5_+2.4_+5.8 __ __ __ __ __ +1.3_+4.4_+2.5 DonSutherland1 _____________ 84 _ 88 _ 92 __ 264 __ 94 _ 92 _ 40 __ 226_ 490 _ 88 _ 52 _ 92 __ 232 ___722 wxdude64 ___________________92 _ 96 _ 80 __ 268 __ 76 _ 88 _ 36 __ 200 _ 468 _ 58 _ 54 _ 86 __ 198 ___ 666 hudsonvalley21 ______________78 _ 76 _ 76 __ 230 __ 92 _ 84 _ 28 __ 204 _ 434 _ 82 _ 42 _ 84 __ 208 ___ 642 RJay ________________________ 66 _ 58 _ 62 __ 186 __ 90 _ 72 _ 62 __ 224 _ 410 _ 66 _ 82 _ 70 __ 218 ___ 628 ___ Consensus ______________ 72 _ 66 _ 74 __ 212 __ 94 _ 76 _ 32 ___ 202 _ 414 _ 74 _ 54 _ 84 __ 212 ___ 626 Tom _________________________ 92 _ 82 _ 86 __ 260 __ 88 _ 44 _ 06 __ 138 _ 398 _ 96 _ 38 _ 78 __ 212 ___ 610 RodneyS ____________________ 90 _ 82 _ 94 __ 266 __ 98 _ 44 _ 24 __ 166 _ 432 _ 78 _ 38 _ 58 __ 174 ___ 606 wxallannj ____________________ 62 _ 58 _ 66 __ 186 __ 82 _ 92 _ 26 __ 200 _ 386 _ 70 _ 56 _ 92 __ 218 ___ 604 BKViking ____________________ 58 _ 50 _ 52 __ 160 __ 94 _ 72 _ 40 __ 206 _ 364 _ 78 _ 62 _ 94__ 234 ___ 600 Roger Smith ________________ 56 _ 48 _ 48 __ 152 __ 70 _ 96 _ 52 __ 218 _ 370 _ 34 _ 82 _ 90__ 206 ___ 576 so_whats_happening ________62 _ 58 _ 62 __ 182 __ 80 _ 78 _ 32 __ 190 _ 372 _ 50 _ 62 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 560 Rhino16 _____________________ 92 _ 94 _ 94 __280 __ 78 _ 44 _ 00 __ 122 _ 402 _ 64 _ 00 _ 64 __ 128 ___ 530 ___ Normal ___________________86 _ 78 _ 82 __ 246 __ 90 _ 52 _ 00 __ 142 _ 388 __74 _ 12 _ 50 __ 136 ___ 524 Scotty Lightning ____________ 66 _ 58 _ 72 __ 196 __ 90 _ 72 _ 12 ___ 174 _ 370 _ 64 _ 42 _ 40 __ 146 ___ 516 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ _ persistence (July anoms) _ 74 _ 48 _ 56 __ 178 __ 96 _ 96 _ 46 __ 238 _ 416 __ 50 _ 44 _ 78 __ 172 ___ 588 ==================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA _ (-0.7) _ wxdude64 at -1.1 and Tom, Rhino16 at -0.3 all share a win as RodneyS at -1.2 takes a loss. NYC _ (-1.1) _ wxdude64 at -1.3 has a win as he took a narrow lead over Rhino16 at -0.8 (not a loss situation). BOS _ (-0.9) _ wxdude64 (-1.9) takes a loss and Rhino16, RodneyS (-0.6) share a win. ORD _ At +0.5, the outcome does not qualify as extreme. ATL _ (+2.4) _ Roger Smith at +2.2 has a win. IAH _ (+5.8) _ A win for RJay (+3.5). DEN _ (+1.3) the outcome does not qualify as extreme, third highest forecast was high score. PHX _ (+4.4) is a shared win for RJay and Roger Smith at +3.5. SEA _ (+2.5) is a win for BKViking at +2.2, and by a narrow margin, a loss for wxallannj (+2.9) ___________________________________________________ (forecasts) FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.7 __ +2.0 _+2.2 _+3.0 __ -2.0 _+3.5 _+2.0 BKViking ______________________+1.4 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 so_whats_happening __________+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+2.0 __ -1.2 _+2.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______________________+1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ -0.4 _+2.0 _+1.7 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+2.9 RJay __________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _-0.5 ___ Consensus ________________+0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __+0.2_+1.2 _+2.0 ____0.0 _+2.1 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 __+0.1 _+1.6 _+1.8 ___+0.4 _+1.5 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 ______________ +0.1 _-0.5 _-0.5 __ +0.2 _+2.0_+2.4 ___+0.7 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.3 _-0.2 _-0.2 ___-0.1 _ -0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _ +1.3 _+1.4 Rhino16 _______________________-0.3 _-0.8 _-0.6 ___ -0.6 _-0.4 _-0.3 __ -0.5 _-0.6 _+0.7 wxdude64 ____________________-1.1 _ -1.3 _ -1.9 ___ -0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 __ -0.8 _+2.1 _+1.8 RodneyS ______________________-1.2 _-0.2 _-0.6 ___+0.4 _-0.4 _+1.6 __+0.2 _+1.3 _+0.4 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ warmest and coolest forecasts color coded; all sets include some lower than Normal. This month I will score persistence (July anomalies) ... those are shown below ____ persistence ______________ +0.6 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+0.3 _+2.2 _+2.7 __ -1.2 _+7.2 _+1.4

Just for interest, here is the complete list of years (at NYC) that had their annual maximum later than today's date August 21st ... they are arranged by dates of occurrence and within same dates, from warmest to coolest values. Ties within this range of dates are shown in italics. Ties with earlier values are shown underlined. Notes include any record highs that were not annual maxima. Absence of such a note implies that the warmest annual max shown is also that day's record high. Date ___ YEAR(s) ___ Max _______ notes (including record highs not annual maxima) Aug 21 __ 1869 ___ 95 _______________________ 96F 1955 Aug 22 __ 1916 ___ 95 ___________ Aug 23 __ (no years had max) _______________ 92F 1916 Aug 24 __ 1972 ___ 94 (tied July 19 & 23, 1972 94F) Aug 25 __ (no years had max) _______________ 95F 1948 Aug 26 __ 1948 __ 103 Aug 27 __ 1960 _ 91 (tied July 12, 1960 91F) __ 101F 1948 Aug 28 __ 1973 ___ 98 __ tied 30th __________ 100F 1948 Aug 29 __ (no years had max) ________________ 99F 1953 Aug 30 __ 1973 ___ 98 __ tied 28th ___________ 98F also in 1953 Aug 31 __ (no years had max) ________________100F 1953 Sep 1 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1953 Sep 2 ____ 1953 __ 102 ____ 1932 _ 96 ___ 2014 _ 92 Sep 3 ____ 1929 ___ 99 ____ 1921 _ 96 _________ Sep 4 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1929 Sep 5 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1985 Sep 6 ____ (no years had max) ________________ 97F 1881 Sep 7 ____ 1881 ___101 Sep 8 ____ 2015 ___ 97 Sep 9 ____ 1915 ___ 94 ____ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 10 1884 91F) Sep 10 ___ 1897 ___ 93 (tied July 6, 1897 93F) ___ 1884 _ 91 (tied June 21, Aug 20, Sep 9 1884 91F) ________________________________________________ 97F 1931 and 1983 Sep 11 ___ 1983 ___ 99 __ 1931 ___ 99 __ (1931 tied Aug 7 99F) Sep 12 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1961 Sep 13 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1952 Sep 14 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1931 Sep 15 ___ 1927 ___ 92 (tied four dates in July 1927 92F) ___ Sep 16 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1915 Sep 17 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1991 Sep 18 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 91F 1891 Sep 19 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 94F 1983 Sep 20 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 93F 1895, 1983 Sep 21 ___ (no years had max) ________________ 95F 1895 Sep 22 ___ 1914 ___ 95 (tied May 27, 1914 95F) ___ 1970 _ 94 ___ record 95F 1895, 1914 Sep 23 ___ 1895 ___ 97 ____________________ also 96F May 31, June 1, 2 1895 ___________________________ Also 93F on Sep 1st to 3rd 1898 but annual max was 100F in July 3. Records after Sep 23 generally near 90F, sooner or later a year could set an annual max in October as 94F in 1941 is above annual maxima of several years.

95 at RIC, 94 at IAD and 92 at DCA, BWI on Monday Aug 21st. No changes to contest. Friday another weak pulse of heat breaks away from the source region but I don't see much potential for it to be warmer than today. I am expecting some record warmth in the autumn but that has to come before mid-September to produce warmer temperatures than our current contest values.

I recall 602 dm from around July 1995 and of course then there's July 1936 before upper air soundings. Want to bet it stayed below 603 dm with 120F readings on several occasions? Maybe those are just August records?

Looking a bit more like mid-90s than 100F now, there isn't much push on the heat and locations upstream have remained in mid-90s, but there will be lots of sunshine in the MA region tomorrow, I think. Will be checking to see if any of the four locations need an update. Sort of expecting not.

Still looking possible to reach 100F on Monday, 582 dm thickness reaches central VA, pattern looks generally dry and some downslope component is present with windshift line followed by apparent back door cold front Tuesday, leading to several days in 85-90 F range, low humidity, but the heat will not be pushed a long way south or west and could return later in the week. The next peak in thickness values (according to GFS guidance) is on Friday 25th (also just shy of 582 dm), air mass looks a bit more humid with that return to heat, may be more like 95-98 F.

Summer Maximum Contest __ Update moved to September contest

Updates and projections to end of month from GFS guidance ... ____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA (15th) ____ (anom 14d) ____ -1.6 __-1.0 ___ 0.0 ___+0.1 _+1.4 _+5.9 ___-3.1 _ +5.1 _ +3.2 (22nd) ___ (anom 21d) ____ -1.2 __-1.1*___-0.5 ___-0.2 _+1.1 _+6.0 ___+0.3 _ +3.9 _ +3.6 * adjusted for missing data 21st. (15th) ____ (p anom 31d) __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 ___-1.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 (22nd) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 __-1.0 ___-1.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+4.0 ___+2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 (28th) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 __-1.0 ___-1.0 ___+1.5 _+2.0 _+5.0 ___+2.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 (31st) ___ (anomalies) _____-0.7 _ -1.1 __ -0.9 ___ +0.5 _+2.4 _+5.8 __ +1.3 _ +4.4 _ +2.5 current anomalies in last entry above are now confirmed values. (seasonal max updates in previous post ... IAH, DEN and SEA are now at higher values) (15th _ Projection based on assumptions of near average or slightly above normal second half of August in east, continued heat in west, finally overturning to some extent the localized negative trend at DEN). (22nd _ Projections now based on continued -1 to -2 trends in east, +2 to +4 further west, resuming also in Phoenix once the cloud from the recent hurricane clears away). (31st _ 1st Sep) ... Scoring being updated to final by Friday Sep 1st mid-day.