Roger Smith

Considering it will be warmest year on record, it was not due to record highs as much as a near-total absence of cold days. Like 1998, another top ten year for average NYC temperatures, max was only 93F. One has to go all the way down to t46 warmest 2007 (92F) to find any year in list of warm years to find a lower annual max, and indeed, 24 of the 25 coldest years also had an annual max higher than (21) or equal to (3) 2023. Besides 2007, the only other years with a lower annual max are (in order of their annual average) t65 warmest 2004 (91), 68 warmest 2014 (92) ... (median is 78) ... t75 coldest 1960 (91) and 2009 (92), t47 coldest 1927 (92), t37 coldest 1902 (90), t34 coldest 1877 (92), t30 coldest 1889 (91), t28 coldest 1907 (92), t26 coldest 1884 (91) and t11 coldest 1871 (92). (there were eight additional years and 2007, tied at 93F with 2023 (1874 1875 1882 1909 1958 1992 1998 2000 2007). So 2023 was tied 13th lowest annual maximum. (bluewave would say t4th). December (likely 2nd or 3rd warmest) is similar in that quite a few past Decembers (at least forty) had higher maximum readings than the 62F observed in 2023. It has been a steady moderate warmth that has pushed 2023 into the top ranks.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA As is our custom, relaxed late penalties for new years, no penalty will be assessed until 18z 2nd and it will be 1% for every six hrs or portion thereafter. Will assess viability of contest depending on turnout, would turn thread into a discussion if we fall below a quorum.

I adjusted ORD and IAH today, you could be correct in saying eventual 8-9 but scoring will revert to max 60 above 5.2 anyway, and will look like it does for +5. (It was in fact +8.6 at ORD) ... Also, max 60 was required to score NYC, BOS, ORD, and DEN. __ Final scoring for December 2023 __ FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________________ 74 _60^_ 60^__194 __ 60^_ 96 _94 __ 250 __444 __ 52^_ 46 _ 34 __ 132 ____ 576 DonSutherland 1 _________________44 _ 18^_ 14^__ 076 __ 40^_ 68 _ 90 __ 198 __ 274 __ 60^_ 52 _ 96 __208 ____ 482 RJay _____________________________ 54 _ 54^_ 54^__ 162 __ 50^_ 78 _ 92 __ 220 __ 382 __ 26^_ 26 _ 30 __ 082 ____ 464 so_whats_happening ____________ 56 _ 42^_ 20^__ 118 __ 42^_ 76 _ 86 ___ 204 __ 322 __ 40^_ 42 _ 40 __ 122 ____ 444 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 52 _ 12^_ 26^__ 090 __ 34^_ 74 _ 84 ___ 192 __ 282 __ 46^_ 30 _ 84 __ 160 ____ 442 RodneyS _________________________ 44 _ 48^_ 50^__ 142 __ 54^_ 64 _ 98 __ 216 __ 358 __ 30^_ 08 _ 30 __ 068 ____ 426 ___ Consensus ____________________44 _ 30^_ 30^__ 104 __ 34^_ 68 _ 84 __ 186 __ 290 __ 30^_ 26 _ 34 __ 090 ____ 380 BKViking _________________________ 40 _ 30^_ 30^__ 100 __ 24^_ 52 _ 66 __ 142 __ 242 __ 12^_ 20 _ 62 __ 094 ____ 336 Scotty Lightning _________________ 50 _ 46^_ 40^__ 136 __ 12^ _ 76 _ 84 ___172 __ 308 __ 00 _ 00 _ 20 __ 020 ____ 328 Tom ______________________________ 40 _ 30^_ 42^__ 112 __ 22^ _ 62 _ 70 __ 154 __ 266 __ 06^_ 12 _ 26 __ 044 ____ 310 Roger Smith ______________________ 16 _ 06^_ 06^__ 028 __ 06^_ 28 _ 42 __ 076 __ 104 __ 54^_ 76 _ 60 __ 190 ____ 294 wxdude64 ________________________00 _ 00 _ 00 __ 000 __ 02 _ 56 _ 74 __ 132 ___ 140 __ 18^_ 32 _ 24 __ 074 ____ 206 ___ Normal ________________________24 _ 10^_ 12^__ 046 __ 00 _ 48 _ 62 __ 110 ___ 156 __ 00 _ 06 _ 30 __ 036 ____ 192 ===================== Persistence (Nov 2023) _______________ 18 _ 00 _ 00 __ 018 __ 32^_ 84 _ 48 ___164 __ 182 __ 64 _ 92 _ 00 __ 156 ____ 338 ________________________________________ EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL ... all are wins for wxallannj with high forecasts. IAH ... a win for RodneyS with high forecast. DEN, SEA ... wins for Don Sutherland1 with high forecasts. PHX ... win for Roger Smith with high forecast. _____________________________ Best wishes for holidays and new year 2024.

I don't expect central Canada to see significant cold or arctic outbreaks, but in an El Nino pattern, source of cold air for developing east coast snowfall is more often Quebec assisted by blocking over Greenland. Central Quebec can get very cold even if arctic air does not build in from central arctic. It can radiate under clear skies over snow cover and become as cold as SK or NWT, or at least close, to give adequate cold for snow events. Also dynamics of interaction between Quebec (or eastern Ontario) cold and subtropical jet rarely creates a monsoonal n.w. flow like more traditional arctic air invading from n.w., so it is snowstorm-friendly. As long as Quebec into eastern Ontario becomes a source region for cold, its absence in central Canada won't be a factor. As an earlier map illustrates, snowfall deficits in El Nino winters occur in Alberta, central plains and lower Great Lakes. It would be BUF getting mauled by El Nino more so compared to NYC or DCA.

I recall early Jan 2010 was cold and dry in eastern regions, in particular Florida very cold relative to normal. Patience was rewarded big time, but almost all of Jan except last 2-3 days were uneventful. El Nino climatology is back-loaded winters, as you know. Would be nice to wring out one moderate snowfall event in early Jan and expect a minor return to mild, seems to be part of deal most times, before better setups begin.

The entire extended Kuchera family must be at Weatherbell to come up with so much snow from a 5-8" type look.

Let's note 15-day GFS says cold and snow (for Jan 6, 2024), about like two weeks ago it was saying cold and snow for Dec 25-26. Is it any more reliable on second try? Possibly. Best period is probably late Jan and early Feb, but could evolve sooner for a longer wintry episode. Early January signal comes and goes on GFS, I saw one case a couple of days ago for Jan 4-5, it turned into a cutter and now you get Jan 5-6 for cold and snow. Sooner or later one of GFS signals will materialize, I don't believe winter 2023-24 will stay as awful as 2022-23.

IIRC it was very cold in Florida at start of Jan 2010 also, 3-4 weeks before the series of snowstorms in the northeastern states.

Yep, I still recall the "winter a thing of the past" chatter in the early 90s after 1987 to 1991 turned out so warm, not to mention talk in 2012 awkwardly followed by two polar vortex winters. The first time I recall hearing the "ski resorts will cease to exist" narrative was probably in 1991 after a couple of bad seasons. But most in Ontario, Quebec and the n.e. US have held on. I suppose the more marginal ones are either gone or struggling. What is no doubt true is that probability is shifting, and I suppose eventually it could overwhelm winter, but at this point, maybe the old one in three good winters more like one in four or one in five. I always wonder too, will the atmosphere cook up a surprise ending to the warming, and create new and different climate regimes in arctic and subarctic regions that do not see large snowfalls in either this climate or the "background normal" 20th century climate. Cambridge Bay in Canada's western arctic normally has a snow cover of about 10 to 20 inches from December to about mid-may; what if a lot of Pacific moisture started to reach them on a regular basis in winter and topped up that cover (most of it falls in late Oct and Nov), increased it to 30-40 in, and it took all of June to melt (as was probably the case with the smaller snow cover of colder centuries like 18th and 19th for which we have only a few anecdotal exploration reports. The reason for glaciation to start is excess snow over snow melt, in subarctic regions. It is not a colder climate so much as a different moisture balance. The surprise ending could be, in years where we succeed in stabilizing greenhouse gases, suddenly this new storm track and results kick in, and climate begins to cool. While we don't want a warmer climate, we also don't want to go too far in the other direction. (no political implications because by the time this might occur, we will be long gone).

Was looking on GFS Asia and cold regime in China is supposed to last about ten days, trough begins to shift east into western Pac around NYD. That monster high in middle of Atlantic is supposed to weaken at same time. If we can get part of it sucked north into Greenland, and that links across Canadian arctic to Alaska high, some chance of a better pattern but I expect slow development and best results in Feb-early march. Rain and 37F here at what is supposed to be a ski resort, they cannot open yet, base is slushy 4-6" and so I looked back at climate records, winter 1997-98 nothing but constant mixed rain and snow events around here, probably never got good snow conditions despite heavy Jan-Feb totals. About 3-4F above normal all winter. I am hoping we don't see a repeat of 1997-98 all over, for one thing, it produced a terribly destructive ice storm in eastern Canada, imagine that spread into parts of upstate NY, VT to maine, but was worst around Ottawa and montreal. Dates like Jan 6-10, can't recall as I had moved west in 1995.

In the similar-starting winter of 1913-14 (after a year with a simiilar snow drought starting in Jan 1913), the winter began with a mild early Jan, severe cold briefly around Jan 13-14, back to mild late Jan, then more persistent cold Feb into early march, snowfall amounts show it did not snow much in Jan, and waited for Feb and march to pile up a respectable 34th snowiest winter (1913-14). I added precip and average temps for relevant portions of 1913 and 1914 to April to give more context. Winter __ Nov_ Dec_ Jan _Feb _ mar _Apr __ winter _ year 1912-13 ____ 0.8 __11.4 __ 0.3 __ 2.6 __ 0.2 __ Tr __ _1912-13 15.3" ___ 1913 __ 3.4" (all in 1912-13 winter, 2.6 in Feb) 1912-13 precip __ 5.01 _3.43 _ 2.74 _6.47 _ 6.27 __ summer and autumn fairly wet, esp Oct (12.97") 1913 total precip 58.00" will end up very close to 2023, 14th wettest year at present just ahead of 2023. 1913-14 sn _ Tr ___ 0.3 __ 1.3 __17.4 __21.5 __ Tr __ _1913-14 40.5" ___ 1914 _ 42.8" (40.2 + 2.6 Dec 1914) 1913-14 precip __ 3.59 _ 5.27 _3.33 _4.74 _3.34 __ summer and autumn generally dry esp Sep (0.29") 1913-14 avg F ___ 38.7 _ 31.5 _25.4 _36..5 _47.9 __ looks a bit like winter 2014-15 ... add 1.0 to adjust for present u.h.i. 1913-14 adj _____ 39.7 _ 32.5 _ 26.4 _37.5 _ 48.9 2014-15 _________40.5 _ 29.9 _ 23.9 _38.1 _ 54.3 Summer 1914 resembles 1895 with odd bookend heat waves in late may and mid to late Sep. 1913 by standards of early 20th century was a fairly warm year overall and had some significant summer heat, very few cold spells especially by standards of that era. Just like spring 2023 an early heat wave set records (it was 1-5 may, two weeks later than 2023 spring heat). Not sure if 1913-14 was an El Nino winter or if we know for sure. It was a low solar year between a low peak (1905-07 twin peaks) and a moderate peak (1917) leading into the active 20th century run. As with 2022, Jan 1912 was cold. 1912 was a generally cold year and could have been influenced by volcanic dust from Katmai volcano erupting in Alaska. 2021 and 1911 have similarity of heat dome occurrences, but 1911 was central and east, 2021 west. Overall, I believe this study would encourage one to predict a back-loaded winter with possibly quite a cold Feb after variable Jan, and snowstorms peaking in Feb -march. Of course many don't need encouragement. Storm of mar 1-2 1914 was a doozy with a very low central pressure below 950 mbs, I believe it set a record for low pressure at NYC. It circled around off the NJ-LI coasts for a while and dropped 14.5" (2.95" liquid on 1st so it could have been a lot heavier snow inland). Record lows of -3F and -5F (Jan 13, 14) and -3F, -1F (Feb 12, 13) and 1F (Feb 25 tied 1894), but it was close to 60F around Jan 29-31, so quite a variable pattern before colder began to dominate in February and early march. 8.1" snow fell on Feb 14 after record cold spell.

A top ten Dec precip outcome will also give at least a top eleven annual outcome ... current top tens for Dec and years (155 years are ranked, or will be at end of Dec) ... Rank _ DEC ____ YEAR 10 _ 6.51" (2018) ___ 59.73" (2021) 09 _ 6.62" (2008) ___ 59.89" (2006) 08 _ 6.77" (1902) ___ 60.92" (1990) 07 _ 7.01" (1901) ___ 61.21" (1975) 06 _ 7.07" (1969) ___ 61.67" (2007) 05 _ 7.09" (2019) ___ 65.11" (1989) 04 _ 7.27" (2009) ___ 65.55" (2018) 03 _ 7.53" (1936) ___ 67.03" (1972) 02 _ 9.77" (1983) ___ 72.81" (2011) 01 _ 9.98" (1973) ___ 80.56" (1983) _______________________________________________ Current totals, 5.10" and 57.68" Annual total ranks 15th, to get to top ten 2023 will need to add 2.05" and get past 14th 1913 (58.00"), 13th place 1889 (58.18"), 12th place 2003 (58.42") and 11th place 1903 (58.52"). Dec only needs 1.41" to get to 10th (for Dec) and is currently at 30th, so would be passing 20 years if that falls. Not sure if these will happen but 14th to 11th (annual) are all in a relatively narrow range and only 0.32" to 0.84" is needed to pass any or all four; 10th is a bit of a stretch after 11th. ------------- ---------------- Also not discussed a lot compared to 2022-23 seasonal futility, 2023 calendar year snowfall will be lowest on record unless 1.1" falls before NYE/NYD at NYC. 1913 is currently lowest at 3.4". Current top ten in low snowfall futility, years and seasons (not counting 2023-24 as a season but including 2023 to date as a calendar year): _01 ____ 2.3 (2023) ____ 2.3 (2022-2023) _02 ____ 3.4 (1913) _____ 2.8 (1972-1973) _03 ____ 5.6 (1973) _____ 3.5 (2001-2002) _04 ____ 7.5 (1998) _____ 3.8 (1918-1919) _05 ____ 7.6 (1953) _____ 4.8 (2019-2020) _06 ____ 8.0 (1931) _____ 5.3 (1931-1932) _07 ____ 8.8 (1951) _____ 5.5 (1997-1998) _08 ____ 9.6 (2012) ____ 7.4 (2011-2012) _09 ____ 9.9 (1997) ____ 8.1 (1877-1878) _10 ____ 10.7 (1999)__(t9) 8.1 (1900-1901) _________________________ Despite its previous top futility ranking, 1913 was part of only 35th lowest winter total in 1912-1913 and then winter 1913-1914 turned snowy (and cold) after New Years and ranks 34th highest snowfall (40.5"), the cold was severe in parts of Jan and Feb, and a large snowstorm occurred march 1-2.

I don't know but I wouldn't put a lot of cash on it, all trends are rising, but Feb 2015 shows that anything is possible. But not probable.

Don and/or bluewave can confirm exact details, but I believe 2023 will surprass previous contenders for warmest year at NYC (2012 and 2020 were close to being tied at 57.3 F), as long as it remains above 1991-2020 normal value. As latest projections are close to +3 anomaly for Dec, 2023 would average close to 57.5 or even 57.6. January set a pace and despite one or two cooler months like Nov, it will become new top of the heap.

18z GFS ends (on Jan 4 2024) with a setup that looks like the next 36h of its run would turn into a large east coast winter storm, about like it was doing ten days ago for Dec 26-27 (which has degraded into the double rainer scenario). The difference could be that a lot more cold air is in place for this fantasy output. A long slow slide into deep winter is what I would expect and Dec will not be repeated in Jan or early Feb. Later Feb, possibly back to torch, but after a reasonable stretch of winter. DOUBLE RAINER DEUBLE DAINER DEBBLE DOINER DEBBIE DOWNER (fun with words)

Top 20 Dec mild to Jan cold at NYC _ for inclusion in list, Dec >37.0 F __ >0.6 above LTA _ median drop is 4.4 F, over 155 years, from 36.4 to 32.0 F _ average of cases below is a drop from 40.9 to 29.7 F (+4.3 to -2.3) _ a few winters saw drops in same range, but Dec was below 37.0F Rank ____ Dec ______ Jan _______ diff _01 ____2015 50.8 _ 2016 34.5 __ -16.3 _02 ____ 1911 39.4 _ 1912 23.7 __ -15.7 _03 ____1984 43.8 _ 1985 28.8 __ -15.0 _04 ____2021 43.8 _ 2022 30.3 __ -13.5 _05 ____2003 37.6 _ 2004 24.7 __ -12.9 _06____1956 40.9 _ 1957 28.5 __ -12.4 _07 ____1993 37.3 _ 1994 25.6 __ -11.7 _08 ____1967 38.2 _ 1968 26.7 __ -11.5 _09 ____1891 42.3 _ 1892 31.5 __ -10.8 _10 ____1881 39.4 _ 1882 28.8 __ -10.6 _11 ____1953 41.3 _ 1954 30.8 __ -10.5 _12 ____2008 38.1 _ 2009 27.9 __ -10.2 _13 ____1987 39.5 _ 1988 29.5 __ -10.0 _14 ____2013 38.5 _ 2014 28.6 ___ -9.9 _15t____1923 42.0 _ 1924 32.7 ___ -9.3 _15t____1998 43.2 _ 1999 33.9 ___ -9.3 _17 ____ 1996 41.3 _ 1997 32.2 ___ -9.1 _18 ____ 1999 40.0 _ 2000 31.3 __ -8.7 _19t____1957 40.2 _ 1958 31.9 ___ -8.3 _19t____1965 40.5 _ 1966 32.2 ___ -8.3 _19t____1982 42.8 _ 1983 34.5 ___ -8.3 Recent cases considered marginal include: _xx ____2018 40.1 _ 2019 32.5 ___ -7.6 (_xx ____2004 38.4 _ 2005 31.3 ___ -7.1) (_xx ____2012 41.5 _ 2013 35.1 ____ -6.4) At least we can conclude large drops in Dec to Jan are not unusual.

This storm finishes just outside top ten for December for both 1-day and 2-day precip totals. ... As of now, lists are updated as follows: Top 15 December precip at NYC over 1 day (snowfall included, gives a measure of QPF) and top 25 to last year's Dec 22-23 event includes eventual 2-day for all one-day events listed. 20" snow Dec 26-27 2010 yielded 1.61" liquid equivalent. Note top two on list are both on Dec 13. Ranks 6 and 8 are on Dec 11. (added Dec 17-18 2023) _ current ranks 12 and 13 Rank ___ 1-day ___ Date _________ (snow if any) _____ max, min temps (F) _01 ____ 3.09 _____ Dec 13, 1909 (1.0" snow) _____ 53, 33 _02 ____ 2.97 _____ Dec 13, 1941 (0.3" snow) _____ 46, 27 _03 ____ 2.54 _____ Dec 9, 2014 (1.0" snow 10th) _ 42, 36 _04 ____ 2.52 _____ Dec 29, 1901^_________________ 55, 44 _05 ____ 2.49 _____ Dec 21, 1973 (Tr snow) _______ 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm) _06 ____ 2.41 _____ Dec 11, 1992 __________________ 42,37 _07 ____ 2.36 _____ Dec 26, 1947 (26.4" snow) ___ 31, 25 _08 ____ 2.35 _____ Dec 11, 2008 _________________ 43, 37 _09 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 17, 1888 _________________ 55, 50 _10 ____ 2.25 _____ Dec 16, 1974 __________________47, 38 _11 ____ 2.22 _____ Dec 14, 1897 __________________ 53, 45 _12 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 18, 2023 __________________ 62, 42 _13 ____ 2.19 _____ Dec 9, 1973 ___________________ 55, 37 _14 ____ 2.18 _____ Dec 22, 1983 (0.6" snow) _____ 53, 31 _15 ____ 2.16 _____ Dec 2, 1974 ___________________ 50, 39 _16 ____ 1.98 _____ Dec 7, 1908 ___________________ 57, 38 (next top contender large snowfall was Dec 20, 1874, 1.92 incl 10.0" snow) (Dec 26-27 2010 20" snow reduced to 1.61" precip) Rank ___2-day ____Dates _______________________ Temps _01 ____ 3.62 ____ Dec 12-13, 1983 ______________ temps in 53-59 range for rainfall portion _02 ____ 3.29 ____ Dec 13-14, 1909 (1.0" snow) __ 53, 33 and 53, 40 _03 ____ 3.28 ____ Dec 11-12, 2008 ______________ 43, 37 and 44, 32 _04 ____ 3.03 ____ Dec 13-14, 1941 ______________ 46, 27 and 46, 33 _05 ____ 2.96 ____ Dec 29-30, 1901 ______________ 55, 44 and 45, 34 _06*____ 2.94 ____ Dec 30-31, 1948 (4.0" snow)__57, 52 and 52, 25 _07 ____ 2.87 ____ Dec 11-12, 1992** (0.4" snow)_42, 37 and 43, 32 _08*____ 2.73 ____ Dec 2-3, 1986 ________________ 53, 35 and 59, 46 _09 ____ 2.65 ____ Dec 20-21, 1973 (Tr snow) ____54, 25 and 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm) _10 ____ 2.62 ____ Dec 9-10, 2014 (1.0" snow) ___ 42, 36 and 40, 32 _11*____ 2.61 ____ Dec 6-7, 1996 (Tr snow) _______46, 35 and 45, 34 _12 ____ 2.58 ____ Dec 1-2 1974^ _(Tr snow) _____ 42, 33 and 50, 39 _13 ____ 2.47 ____ Dec 17-18, 2023 ______________ 59, 47 and 62, 42 _14 ____ 2.40 ____ Dec 26-27, 1947 (26.4" snow) _31, 25 and 35, 29 _15*____ 2.36 ____ Dec 14-15, 1981 (1.4" snow) __ 37, 29 and 38, 35 _16 ____ 2.33 ____ Dec 17-18, 1888 _______________55, 50 and 52, 29 _17 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 14-15, 1897 ______________53, 45 and 57, 47 _18*____ 2.25 _____ Dec 9-10, 1878 (0.5" snow) __46, 33 and 60, 46 _19*____ 2.24 _____ Dec 7-8, 1914 (0.5" snow) ___ 36, 32 and 36, 30 (presumably a lot of snow not far away) _20 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 22-23, 1983 (0.8" snow) _ 53, 31 and 41, 22 (6, 4 next 2d min) _21 ____(2.19" Dec 9 1973 no additional amounts Dec 8 or 10) _22 ____ 2.13 _____ Dec 3-4, 1925 _______________ 49, 39 and 51, 46 _23 ____ 2.08 _____Dec 19-20, 1936 (Tr snow) ___48, 23 and 55, 34 _24 ____2.06 _____ Dec 22-23, 2022 (Tr snow) __47, 35 and 58, 8 (max 15 min 7 on Dec 24) _25 ____2.03 _____ Dec 6-7, 1908 _______________ 43, 26 and 57, 38 * (to rank 21, all 2-day contenders except ranks 6, 8, 11, 15, 18 and 19 are also in one-day table. Rank 6 is 1.54" + 1.40" ... Rank 8 is 1.62"+1.11" ... Rank 11 is 1.20"+1.41" ... Rank 15 is 1.02" + 1.34" ... Rank 18 is 0.63"+1.62" ... Rank 19 is (0.25"+)1.81"+0.43") note, a 3rd significant Dec-1983 value of 1.97" for Dec 3-4, 1983. ** 3.31" total Dec 10-12 1992 ... 2.85 Dec 10-11 1992 2-day is not counted as separate entry but ranks 8, if all cases are considered. Same applies to 2.62" Dec 10-11, 2008. 2.95" fell Dec 28-30 1942 but Dec 29 value of 0.39" (1.22+0.39+1.34) _ no qualifying 2-d totals. ___________________________________________

Partial dry slot developing but southern energy will be pulled in across NYC and w LI this afternoon, expect another 0.50" to 0.75" rain with that, winds will also pick up again to SW 40-55 in exposed areas. Squall line in w/c Long Island appears headed for central CT and will be focus of svr trw developing later in parts of e/c NE. Double centered for now but will consolidate into one low over period 15z to 21z.

I notice numerous reports of intense TRW activity over central Long Island (in NYC forum) and it appears to be racing north into CT, with an associated warm front also looking active, would expect widespread TRW soon in large portions of sNE. Low developed twin centers but is now consolidating and southern energy off Delmarva will be pulled into primary during afternoon. Could be some extreme obs posted, "marginal" svr wx now posted could be more like enhanced.

Actually surprised this did not get a name (Vince), have seen less impressive storms named in season. Took four months to get a TS designation on Atlantic January storm, so maybe same lag with (eventual) Vince. Can see basis for dispute over wind speeds, but given the nearly STS nature of almost - Vince, I would be very reluctant to downgrade wind speeds based on global model isobars alone. All day long there have been gusts over 65mph ahead of developing southern center (it is going twin-centered o/n). West of CT River and central LI, I can see a good argument for reducing wind gust forecasts, at least beyond 15z. East of that I would go with Kev's estimates or at least an average of Kev and 007. Gradient actually increases later in day for maine, New hampshire. Would expect svr wx potential e CT, n RI and parts of se ma towards 18z, even slgt tor risk. Given severe component, some location will gust to 80-100 mph but at airport wx stations? It will likely be some place without official measurements but verifiable based on wind damage.

60 kt gusts are now as far north as Diamond Shoals off Cape hatteras. (60 kt = 67-68 mph)

Double centered structure indicated on GFS would cut off stronger winds after a brief interval late overnite, winds would only continue to be an issue about KISP-east after briefly affecting all regions. Reggie is (a) overdone or (b) will nearly double existing Dec records.

Anomalies and projections ... _______________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (17) _________ (anom 16d) ____________ +1.8 _ +4.2 _ +3.3*__ +6.8 _ +3.8 _ +2.3 __ +5.1 _ +4.3 _ +2.7 ____________ (p anom 31d) ____________+2.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 __ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.0 (23) _________ (anom 22d) ____________+1.9 _ +4.0 _ +3.7 __ +6.7 _ +1.7 _ +2.6 __ +7.8 _ +5.9 _ +2.6 ____________ (p anom 31d) ____________+2.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 __ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.0 As speculated, some anomalies did get up pretty far, here is the end result ... ____________ (anom 31d) ______________+3.8 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 __ +8.6 _ +2.6 _ +1.9 __ +6.2 _ +4.7 _ +3.5 * BOS est as Dec 16 not incl (+11 blend w 2.9 1-15) (17) _ Based projections on a continuation of trends, possibly not quite as anomalously warm as first part of Dec, but no big changes indicated. Current projections would score only 80 _ 58 _ 54 __ 54 _ 60 _ 82 ___ 54 _ 50 _ 64 ___ 556 ___ Consensus ________________+1.0 _+0.9 _+0.4 __+1.7 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +1.7 _+1.0 _+0.2 (warmer forecasts would score over 700). wxallannj could close in on leader DonS, but I don't believe scoring potential is sufficient to overcome deficit; may be a close finish. (23) _ Projections adjusted, preliminary scoring to be posted soon. ORD and IAH were bumped up and rest were as before, looks like a gradual shift to below normal temps near end of Dec, not very far below average anywhere as source regions have little snow cover. (31-Jan 1) _ Scoring is being adjusted to final anomalies. (now final)

Frying Pan Shoals, off the coast near NC/SC border, recently reported 42 kts sustained gusting to 60 kts. This probably should be STS Vince, it is definitely at strong tropical storm intensity at present time. Is it going by any name from TWC?

I will guess 2.5 to 3.0 in, risk of 3.5 in.