Roger Smith

Acapulco's max daily rainfall was 16.9" in October 1997 from a weaker 'cane (Pauline); nearby locations recorded 25-35 in rainfalls. Results were destructive flooding and a toll of about 300 dead in Guerrero state. NWS says 12-20 in rains from Otis but I would imagine looking at satellite and terrain, 15-35 could be more realistic. Pauline in 1997 did not bring strong winds, max gusts at Acapulco were TS range. No doubt 2023 will be a worse outcome by far.

I am expecting the winter to be dominated by upper ridges often located near the west coast and troughs often located near the east coast, when both are weak flow will be mild Pacific air masses coast to coast, when both are strong, very mild in west and cold air will flood south from Yukon and NWT, and cover central and eastern regions of southern Canada and the US (Texas and New mexico will often be in a warmer sector associated with the western warmth). Although you can get a few snowstorms out of this pattern, it tends to be dry relative to normal. Lake effect snowfall could be very heavy at times. There will be a tendency for the ridge to flatten and move inland in Feb and into central regions by march, leading to mostly warm weather in early spring, especially central plains to northeast US and lower GL. An analogue may be 1976-77 except that it won't be as cold in Nov and Dec. January could bring one or two severe cold spells into central and eastern regions. A few areas of Utah and Colorado could have above normal snow, California will be prone to a few heavy rainfalls but it won't be as extreme as some El Nino winters. Another possible analogue would be 1980-81. If this has bust potential I would expect it to be towards all mild all the time in a weaker ridge-trough couplet forcing mild air to go coast to coast almost all winter. Given recent tendencies, I suppose the best call is to blend the theoretical with that pessimistic view, and predict mostly mild with brief cold intervals, generally rather dry. I agree KY/TN looks like one area likely to see closer to normal precip. Other than lake effect snow potential, I foresee a rather infrequent snow regime and any location outside of snow belts managing to get close to average will be stringing together a number of moderate snowfalls to do it. Expect a lot of places that regularly receive snow to be in the 50-75 per cent of normal range this winter.

Final scoring for October 2023 Scoring is based on latest posted projected anomalies for end of October. * scores include one point late penalty ^ BOS was scored by max-60 rule but a small spread of scores made it difficult to render a fair result so I decided to add 14 to all scores to keep differentials same as raw scores. Normal was left at raw score of 12. ... PHX was given a standard adjustment but bottom half of scoring stayed at raw scores not adjusted as those were higher than progression (60, 54, etc). Forecaster _____________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ____________________ 88 _ 82 _ 60^__ 230__ 72 _ 86 _ 74 __ 232 __ 462 __ 94 _ 54^_ 80 __ 228 ____ 690 so_whats_happening __ (-1%) __ 85*_ 75*_ 60^__220 __ 83*_93*_ 83*__259 __ 479 __ 91*_ 26 _ 91*__ 208 ____ 687 hudsonvalley21 _________________90 _ 82 _ 58^__ 230__ 74 _100 _74 __ 248 __ 478 __ 84 _ 36^_ 84 __ 204 ____ 682 DonSutherland1 ________________ 76 _ 72 _ 58^__ 206 __ 96 _ 98 _ 78 __ 272 __ 478 __ 74 _ 54^_ 76 __ 204 ____ 682 ___ Consensus _________________ 76 _ 72 _ 56^__ 204 __ 66 _ 96 _ 76 __ 238 __ 442 __ 90 _ 36^_ 86 __ 212 ____ 654 wxallannj _______________________ 78 _ 74 _ 58^__ 210 __ 34 _ 92 _ 96 __ 222 __ 432 __ 88 _ 60^_ 70 __218 ____ 650 wxdude64 ______________________72 _ 70 _ 54^__ 196 __ 56 _ 86 _ 72 __ 214 __ 410 __ 86 _ 36^_ 88 __ 210 ____ 620 Scotty Lightning ________________74 _ 68 _ 46^__ 188 __ 58 _ 90 _ 78 __ 226 __ 414 __ 82 _ 30 _ 86 __ 198 ____ 612 Tom ____________________________ 60 _ 58 _ 36^__ 154 __ 32 _ 78 _ 80 __ 190 __ 344 __ 96 _ 28 _ 82 __ 206 ____ 550 RJay ____________________________54 _ 54 _ 36^__ 144 __ 38 _ 90 _ 58 __ 186 __ 330 __ 88 _ 42^_ 84 __ 214 ____ 544 RodneyS _______________________ 48 _ 58 _ 46^__ 152 __ 72 _ 64 _ 58 ___ 194 __ 346 __ 92 _ 06^_ 98 __ 196 ____ 542 ___ Normal _____________________ 54 _ 48 _ 12 ___ 114 __ 38 _ 80 _ 92 __ 210 ___ 324 __ 72 _ 10 _ 86 __ 168 ____ 492 ___ Persistence (Sep 2023) _____74 _ 52 _ 62^__ 188 __ 98 _ 98 _ 12 __ 208 __ 396 __ 64 _ 57^_ 74 __ 195 ____ 591 ====================== [][] ===================== Extreme forecasts DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD and PHX are all wins for high forecasts. hudsonvalley has 1.5 (DCA, NYC*), DonS takes one (ORD), wxallannj also one (PHX), Roger Smith 1.0 (NYC*, BOS*), and so_whats_happening 0.5 (BOS*); ... *NYC and BOS were shared wins. IAH (+0.4) goes to coldest forecast, wxallannj (+0.6). Normal takes a loss (0.0). ATL, DEN and SEA all finished close to consensus and did not qualify. (I only introduced "persistence" as a scored entity recently and have not noted its extreme forecast performance, I may do so later, but for OCT persistence would win two, BOS and ORD.) ANNUAL UPDATE to FOLLOW BY NOV 2nd

Scoring tables current and postulated future versions, updated for Tammy (count now 20 6 3) and as it seems likely to become a 'cane, 20 7 3 scores in tables are likely to become current scores soon. (edit 20 7 3 is in fact now current count as of 21st 06z)

After two weeks, first report on October and projections: ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ (anom 14d) _______ +1.5 _ +1.9 _ +3.6 __ +3.8 _ +0.4 _ -0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +2.9 _ +2.8 __ (anom 22d) _______ +0.4 _ +1.2 _ +3.0 __ +2.8 _ -0.8 _ -1.2 ___ +4.6 _ +5.7 _ +3.2* * SEA data for Oct 19 msg, 3.2 is anom for rest of days, 3.6 is likely closer to actual value as Oct 19 72/60 at nearby location 15__ (p anom 31d) __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 23__ (p anom 31d) __+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.0 31__ (final anom) ___ +2.3 _ +2.6 _ +4.4 __ +3.1 _+1.0 _ +0.4 ___ +1.4 _ +4.5 _ +0.7* (Oct 15) _ A warm spell is indicated for next ten days in west, followed by more variable conditions; cool in east at times, but balanced by a few warmer days so anomalies will likely drift down slowly. (Oct 23) _ Turning colder in west, and very warm in east, preliminary scoring will follow. (Oct 31) _ Posting end of October anomalies; scoring will be adjusted later on Nov 1st. * SEA missed 3 days of data, but looking at nearby locations, average (one warm day and two moderately cool) was a bit higher than final overall departure of +0.7 but I won't adjust, resulting error is small (0.2) or perhaps zero if data average is different site to site. Also these three days may be added to CF6 at final report a few days later in Nov. Will check back to see if they revise;

Cloudy for the duration here, could see sun's disk briefly with suggestion of a crescent moon sort of appearance, and light here became very dim for about 20 minutes near 80% peak coverage at about 0935 PDT. Interesting but a non-aware person probably didn't think much was happening, the daylight decreased to about what you might expect around sunset on a cloudy day in December. We tried for pictures but nothing worth posting. Probably a fabulous view of the ring of fire in at least some parts of UT and NV based on satellite imagery.

Scores for all potential outcomes to 21 storm season As actual events unfold, some of these outcomes will become invalid and will be removed. from the table. Just for your information. Table assumes Sean will never gain intensity and will die out with count 19 6 3 to start final countdown. Table also assumes maximum of one major out of storms 20 and 21 as well as options for no further hurricanes. 19 6 3 outcome removed with Tammy the 20th storm and 20 6 3 also removed now Tammy is a hurricane. This also removes 21 6 3 from table. 22 7 3 is now added to table. As Tammy did not become a major, 20 7 4 and 21 7 4 are no longer possible outcomes. 22 8 3 and 22 8 4 replace them. Forum _ Forecaster ______________ s ___ h ___ m ___ 2073 __ 2173 __ 2183 __ 2184 __ 2273 __ 2283 __ 2284 IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 __ 11 __ 8 ____ 74.5 ___ 75.0 ___ 79.0 __ 84.0 __ 74.5 __ 78.5 __ 83.5 AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0 __ 93.0 __ 86.5 __ 90.5 __ 92.5 --- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5 __ 92.5 __ 85.5 __ 89.5 __ 91.5 AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 __ 12 __ 4 ____ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5 __ 88.5 __ 81.0 __ 86.0 __ 87.0 AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5 __ 91.5 __ 84.0 __ 88.0 __ 90.0 IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ___9 __ 4 ____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0 __96.0 __ 91.0 __ 93.0 __ 94.0 AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 __ 10 __ 4 ____ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0 __ 92.0 __ 85.5 __ 88.5 __ 89.5 NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 __ 10 __ 3 ____ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0 __ 91.0 __ 86.5 __ 89.5 __ 88.5 NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 __ 11 __ 5 ____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 76.5 __ 80.5 __ 82.5 NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 __ 10 __ 3 ____ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 83.5 __ 86.5 __ 85.5 IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ___ 9 __ 5 ____ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5 __ 90.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 87.5 AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ___ 9 __ 4 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 85.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5 AM _ wkd (4) ______________________16 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5 AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________16 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 88.5 AM _ yotaman (31) ________________16 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 95.0 ___ 92.5 ___91.5 __ 90.5 __ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 87.5 AM _ hotair (18) ___________________16 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5 __ 88.5 __ 86.5 __ 85.5 AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________16 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 82.5 __ 80.5 AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________16 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 85.5 __ 82.5 __ 80.5 AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________ 15 ___ 8 __ 4 ____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5 __ 89.5 __ 84.0 __ 85.0 __ 86.0 AM _ diggiebot (12) _______________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 AM _ Torch Tiger (23) _____________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 --- ___ CSU ________________________15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 --- ___ TWC _______________________ 15 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5 __ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________15 ___ 7 __ 2 ____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5 __ 85.5 __ 85.0 __ 84.0 __ 82.0 AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5 __ 84.0 __ 82.0 __ 80.0 AM _ Marsman (14) ________________15 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5 __ 76.5 __ 79.0 __ 75.0 __ 73.0 --- ___ NOAA median _____________14.5___7.0 _2.5 ___ 90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7 __ 84.4 __ 83.0 __ 82.0 __ 80.7 AM _ JConsor (13) _________________14 ___ 8 __ 4 ____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0 __ 86.0 __ 80.0 __ 81.0 __ 82.0 AM _ nvck (45) ____________________ 14 ___ 8 __ 3 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0 __ 85.0 __ 81.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0 IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) ________________ 14 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0 __ 84.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0 __ 80.0 AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) ________ 14 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0 __ 82.0 __ 81.0 __ 79.0 __ 78.0 AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) __________14 ___ 5 __ 3 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0 __ 79.0 __ 79.0 __ 76.0 __ 75.0 _______ Consensus ________________13.8 __6.8 _ 2.8 ___ 88.6 ___ 85.0 ___ 84.0 __ 82.8 __ 80.9 __ 79.9 __ 78.7 AM _ Yoda (40) ___________________ 13 ___ 7 __ 4 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 __ 81.0 __ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 76.5 AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ___ 7 __ 2 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 __ 78.0 __ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 73.5 AM _ George BM (41) _____________ 13 ___ 6 __ 3 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0 __ 78.0 __ 76.5 __ 74.5 __ 73.5 AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _______ 13 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0 __ 76.0 __ 75.5 __ 73.5 __ 71.5 AM _ North hills wx (24) ___________13 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 __ 73.0 __ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 AM _ Newman (30) _______________ 13 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 __ 73.0 __ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 AM _ Alfoman (25) ________________ 13 ___ 5 __ 1 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 __ 70.0 __ 71.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ___________13 ___ 5 __ 1 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 __ 70.0 __ 71.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________12 ___ 11 __ 1 ____ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___68.5 __ 65.5 __ 59.5 __ 63.5 __ 60.5 AM _ rclab (43) ____________________12 ___ 8 __ 3 ____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5 __ 76.5 __ 71.5 __ 72.5 __ 71.5 AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________12 ___ 7 __ 3 ____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5 __ 75.5 __ 72.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5 AM _ crownweather (11) __________ 12 ___ 6 __ 2 ____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 __ 73.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 66.5 AM _ Cat Lady (7) _________________12 ___ 5 __ 3 ____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 __ 71.5 __ 70.5 __ 69.5 __ 66.5 __ 65.5 AM _ RJay (17) ____________________ 12 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 __ 70.5 __ 68.5 __ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________ 12 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 __ 66.5 __ 64.5 __ 65.5 __ 61.5 __ 59.5 AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____ 11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 AM _ mob1 (8) _____________________ 11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ___ 5 __ 2 ____ 73.5 ___ 68.5 __ 65.5 __ 63.5 __63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 AM _ Matthew70 (32) _____________ 11 ___ 4 __ 2 ____ 70.5 ___ 65.5 __ 61.5 __ 59.5 __60.0 __ 56.0 __ 54.0 AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5__2 __ 69.6 __ 64.4 __ 61.4 __ 58.0 __58.7 __ 55.7 __52.3 AM _ cnimbus (6) __________________ 10 ___ 7 __ 2 ___ 71.5 ___ 66.0 __ 65.0 __ 63.0 __60.0 __ 59.0 __ 57.0 AM _ GaWx (21) ____________________ 10 ___ 5 __ 2 ___ 68.5 ___ 63.0 __ 60.0 __ 58.0 __57.0 __ 54.0 __ 52.0 NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) _____ 10 ___ 4 __ 2 ___ 65.5 ___ 60.0 __ 56.0 __ 54.0__ 54.0 __ 50.0 __ 48.0 AM _ The Iceman (39) ______________ 10 ___ 4 __ 1 ___ 63.5 ___ 58.0 __ 54.0 __ 51.0__ 52.0 __ 48.0 __ 45.0 AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _______________ 7 ___ 3 __ 2 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 __ 34.5 ___ 29.5__ 29.0 __ 27.0 __ 22.0 Forum _ Forecaster ______________ s ___ h ___ m ___ 2073 __ 2173 __ 2183 __ 2184 __ 2273 __ 2283 __ 2284 ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

Post dated Aug 27 is no longer being updated. This post replaces it with up to date scoring for current count, and future potential scores for next expected developments. 21 7 3 is now estimated to be the most plausible end of season count. (edit Oct 19 _ Tammy is now a tropical storm, count 20 6 3). (edit Oct 21 _ Tammy is now a hurricane and count 20 7 3). Scoring for current count (20 7 3) and postulated 21 7 3, 21 8 3 counts forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (possible future score) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 20 7 3 _ _ 21 7 3 _ _ 21 8 3 IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___ 74.5 ___ 75.0 ___ 79.0 AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0 --- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ____ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5 AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5 IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0 AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0 NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0 NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 _____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5 NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5 IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ wkd (4) ______________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ yotaman (31) ________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 92.5 ___ 91.5 AM _ hotair (18) ___________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5 AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ___________ 15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ diggiebot (12) ________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ Torch Tiger (23) ______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 --- ___ CSU ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 --- ___ TWC ________________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5 AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) __________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5 AM _ Marsman (14) ________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5 --- ___ NOAA median _______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ___90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7 AM _ JConsor (13) __________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0 AM _ nvck (45) _____________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0 IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _________________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0 AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _________ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0 AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ___________14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0 _______ Consensus ________________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.8 AM _ Yoda (40) _____________________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 4 ____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 AM _ Superstorm93 (22) ___________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 2 ____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 AM _ George BM (41) _______________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0 AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0 AM _ North hills wx (24) ____________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 AM _ Newman (30) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 AM _ Alfoman (25) __________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) _____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _________________12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ____-18 -10 -3 ___ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___ 68.5 AM _ rclab (43) ______________________12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5 AM _ Rhino 16 (2) ___________________12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5 AM _ crownweather (11) ____________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 ___ 73.5 AM _ Cat Lady (7) ___________________12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-18 -3 _0 _____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 ___ 71.5 AM _ RJay (17) ______________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5 AM _ cheese007 (35) _______________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5 AM _ Eyewall (27) ___________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 ___ 66.5 AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _______11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ mob1 (8) ______________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _______________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ Matthew70 (32) ______________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -6 -1 ____ 70.5 ___ 65.5 ___ 61.5 AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5___2 ____-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 64.4___ 62.0 AM _ cnimbus (6) ___________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___ 66.0 ___ 65.0 AM _ GaWx (21) _____________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 63.0 ___ 60.0 NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ______10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 60.0 ___ 56.0 AM _ The Iceman (39) _______________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 58.0 ___ 54.0 AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _______________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 ___ 31.5 ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts) <<< SCORES ABOVE WILL BE ADJUSTED EVERY TIME COUNT INCREASES >>>

We will get an 80% bite locally, at about 0930 PDT, will see if I can get any spooky images as it is often foggy in local area until past ten.

I would go to central or southeast Utah for good chances of clear skies given the predicted pattern (dry s.e. flow), also note it would be quite early in day in western OR (about 0920 PDT) and closer to 1100h in mountain daylight time zone in Utah. The visual effect would be interesting over areas of colored rocks too. I realize this is an annular eclipse or a "ring of fire" event. Would recommend trying for April 8, 2024 total eclipse after seeing August 2017 event in Oregon.

Scoring tables for current count (18 6 3) are found back in Aug 27 post. Postulated end of season best estimated count is now 20 7 3, scoring is found a few posts back ... yotaman would win if count verified.

The heavy rains Sep 23 and 28-29 produced seven consecutive new weekly record totals. Sep 23-29 just edged out 1882 (8.86" to 8.82"). After that, faster decreases in previous records than the decreases in 2023 totals allowed each week to Sept 29-Oct 5 to set new records, at the expense of 1913 in the last several cases. Early Sept heat produced a notable but not record value of 73.00 as an average low for Sept 4-10. Current now ending late season heat is not quite at record levels -- the highest averages for Sept 30 to Oct 6 are 82/66 in different years (1922, 1898). The averages this year are closer to 78/62, so falling about four degrees below record pace.

BWI _ Oct 21 IAD _ Oct 21 DCA _ Nov 15 RIC _ Nov 15 BWI departure -0.1

Table of forecasts for October 2023 Forecaster _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ___ +2.2 _ +1.1 _ -0.1 Roger Smith ______________________ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 so_whats_happening __ (-1%) ____ +1.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.2 ___ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 wxallannj __________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ___ -0.2 _ +0.6 _ +0.6 ___+2.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.6 ___+2.9 _ +0.9 _ +1.5 ___ +2.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ Consensus _____________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 ___ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 Scotty Lightning ___________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 _________________________+0.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___+0.9 _ +0.3 _ +1.8 ___ +0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 Tom _______________________________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ -0.3 _ -0.1 _ +1.4 ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 RJay _______________________________ 0.0 _ +0.3 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +0.5 _+2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.7 _ -0.8 _+2.5 ___ +1.0 _ -0.6 _ +0.6 ___ Persistence (Sep 2023) ________+1.0 _ +0.2 _ +1.8 __ +3.2 _ +0.9 _ +4.8 ___+3.2 _ +2.0 _ -0.6 _________________ highest forecasts in red, coldest in blue. Normal was coldest for NYC, BOS, IAH and DEN.

Yes, I noticed it was 10th warmest September at Toronto, closer to 50th warmest at NYC. Unusual for them to be so far apart in rankings but coastal disturbances kept it relatively cool second half in NYC and BOS.

I am away from base for a couple of days so table of forecasts may not appear until Oct 4, can somebody in NYC group give BKV and r16 a message re contest deadline?

Summer Maximum Contest __ Final results Sep 30, 2023 (forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino 16 _____________________105 __ 95 __ 98 ____101 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 96 Scotty Lightning _____________103 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 104 _ 109 ___ 94 _ 119 __ 90 Roger Smith _________________ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___103 _ 119 __ 98 so_whats_happening ________ 101 __ 101 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 100 __ 101 _ 122 __ 97 RJay _________________________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 105 ___100 _ 119 __ 97 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 101 __ 98 __ 95 ____100 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 93 DonSutherland1 ______________101 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 103 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 ___ Consensus _______________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 95 wxdude64 ___________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 ___102 _ 100 _ 105 ___104 _ 119 __ 96 BKViking _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 97 ___99 __ 100 _ 120 __ 95 Tom ___________________________99 __ 98 __ 97 ___ 101 __ 99 __ 103 ___97 _ 119 __ 97 wxallannj ______________________98 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 94 __ 98 _ 102 __ 101 _ 116 __ 97 RodneyS ______________________98 __ 96 __ 95 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 92 Terpeast ______________________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 99 (summer max 2023) __________ 99 __ 93 __ 93 ____100 __ 99 _ 109 ____99 _ 119 __ 95 (SCORING _ departures of forecasts) _ (now in contest rank order) Rank _FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL _01 __ Tom ________________________ 0 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 20 (8) _02 _______ Consensus ___________ 1 ____ 5 ___ 5 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 6 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 21 (9) _02 __ hudsonvalley21 ____________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 22 (8) _03 __ RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 24 (6) _04 __ RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 25 (18) _t05__ DonSutherland1 ____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 6 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 28 (20) _t05__ wxdude64 _________________ 1 ___ 6 ___ 8 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 28 (4) _07__ BKViking _____________________1 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 3 ___ 2 ___10 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 29 (15) _t08_ Terpeast _____________________3 ___ 4 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 30 (18) _t08 __ Roger Smith _______________ 2 ___ 9 ___ 7 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 30 (1) _09__ wxallannj _____________________1 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 6 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 31 (18) _11 __ Rhino 16 ______________________6 ___ 2 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 7 ___ 8 ____ 0___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 31 (9) _t12 __Scotty Lightning _____________4 ___ 8 ___ 6 ____2 ___ 5 ___ 0 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 5 ____ 35 (12) _t12 __so_whats_happening ________2 ___ 8 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 9 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 35 (9) ============================= As usual, a close result in contest, east generally cooler than forecasts. <<< September scores and annual scoring updates are in previous posts, scroll back >>> (portion of score in brackets represents differentials where your forecast was surpassed by actual values ... the rest of your total is from forecasts warmer than actual values).

+1.7 for all nine.

14.25" Sep 2023 total (plus any later today) would be 2nd wettest Sep (1882 _ 16.85") and fourth wettest month overall. (Aug 2011 _ 18.95" ranks first, Sep 1882 _16.85" ranks 2nd, Oct 2005 _16.73" ranks 3rd). (NYC)

14.25" Sep 2023 total (plus any later today) would be 2nd wettest Sep (1882 _ 16.85") and fourth wettest month overall. (Aug 2011 _ 18.95" ranks first, Sep 1882 _16.85" ranks 2nd, Oct 2005 _16.73" ranks 3rd).

Event ends up in top ten (or top 20 for 2d) daily rainfalls for NYC: Top 30 daily rainfalls (includes all 3.99" or greater) and top 25 2d rainfalls, NYC 1869-2023 Rank ___ Rain ___ Date ___________ 2d total (rank, see list below table also) _01 _____ 8.28 ___ Sep 23, 1882 __ 10.62 (22-23)_ (rank 2) _02 _____ 7.57 ___ Apr 15, 2007 ___ 8.47 (15-16) __ (rank 4) _03 _____ 7.40 ___ Nov 8, 1977 ____ 9.19 (7-8) ____ (rank 3) _04 _____ 7.33 ___ Oct 9, 1903 ___ 11.63 (8-9) ____ (rank 1) _05 _____ 7.13 ___ Sep 1, 2021 _____ 7.23 (1-2) _____ (rank 6) _06 _____ 5.81 ___ Aug 14, 2011 ___ 6.37 (14-15) __ (rank 11) _07 _____ 5.60 ___ Nov 8, 1972 ____ 5.60 (8) _____ (rank 20) __ note, not daily record or 2d record, would be for any day(s) in Nov except (7-) 8th _08 _____ 5.54 ___ Sep 21, 1966 ___ 5.64 (21-22) _ (rank 19) _09 _____ 5.48 ___ Sep 29, 2023 __ 5.86 (28-29) _ (rank 16) _10 _____ 5.02 ___ Sep 16, 1999 ___ 5.44 (15-16) _ (rank 20) _11 _____ 4.98 ___ Oct 1, 1913 _____ 5.28 (1-2) ____ (rank 22) _12 _____ 4.97 ___ Apr 30, 2014 ___ 5.09 (30-1 May)_ (rank 24) _13 _____ 4.86 ___ Sep 8, 1934 ____ 5.48 (7-8) ____ (rank 21) _t14 ____ 4.80 ___ Aug 20, 1873 ___ 4.89 (19-20) __ (rank 25) _t14 ____ 4.80 ___ Aug 16, 1909 ___ 5.15 (16-17) ___ (rank 23) _16 _____ 4.64 ___ Aug 10, 1990 ___ 6.14 (10-11) ___ (rank 15) _17 _____ 4.45 ___ Aug 21, 2021 ___ 7.12 (21-22) ___ (rank 7) _18 _____ 4.35 ___ Oct 19, 1996 ___ 4.50 (19-20) ___ (rank 33) _19 _____ 4.30 ___ Sep 19, 1894 ___ 5.16 (18-19) ___ (rank 22) (t19 ____ 4.30 ___ Oct 8, 1903 _____ part of rank 1st 2d total above, Oct 8-9, 1903 11.63") _21 ____ 4.29 ___ June 26, 1884 __ 4.74 (25-26) __ (rank 27) _22 ____ 4.26 ___ Oct 12, 2005 ____ 7.01 (12-13) ___ (rank 8) _23 ____ 4.19 ___ Aug 21, 1888 ____ 4.32 (21-22) __ _t24 ___ 4.16 ___ Sep 15, 1933 ____ 7.00 (14-15) __ (rank 9) _t24 ___ 4.16 ___ Aug 27, 1971 ____ 5.96 (27-28) __ (rank 16) _t24 ___ 4.16 ___ June 7, 2013 ____ 4.64 (7-8) _____ (rank t28) _27 ____ 4.10 ___ Aug 9, 1942 _____ 4.25 (9-10) ___ _28 ____ 4.09 ___ Oct 7, 1972 _____ 4.38 (6-7) _____ _t29____ 4.05 ___ Oct 4, 1877 _____ 4.07 (4-5) _____ _t29____ 4.05 ___ Sep 21, 1938 ___ 5.74 (20-21) ___ (rank 18) _31 ____ 3.99 ___ Aug 28, 2011 ___ 6.87 (27-28) __ (rank 10) (only top 30 2-day totals are ranked) (only larger of two possible 2-day totals are considered for ranking) These events spread over two calendar days were in top 31 but not above 1-d top 30 list, including 7.76" Sep 13-14, 1944 (rank 5) __ 3.94" + 3.82" (daily records) 6.32" Aug 12-13, 1955 (rank 12) _ 3.62" + 2.70" (daily records) 6.28" Sep 3-4 1969 (rank 13) ____ 3.32" + 2.96" (3.32" daily record 3rd, 4th 1913 had 3.48") 6.23" Sep 17-18, 1874 (rank 14) __ 3.28" + 2.95" (not daily records) 4.83" fell Aug 8-9, 1976 (rank 26) ____ 3.90" on Aug 9 not a daily record (see 1942) 4.64" fell Sep 28-29, 2004 (rank t28) _ 3.84" Sep 28 was daily record 4.62" fell July 24-25, 1997 (rank 30) _ 3.75" July 24 was daily and July 1d record 4.61" fell Aug 30-31, 1911 (rank 31) __ 3.76" Aug 31 was daily record 4.59" fell Aug 17-18, 1879 (rank 32) __ 3.95" Aug 18 was daily record

Just a heads up for contest regulars, October forecast due in by 06z.

I would agree except we just saw P and R named, and not a lot indicated on model runs in addition to them, so playing it fairly cautious, would not be too surprised to see a count into low 20s, key to scoring changes will be how many are 'canes as few forecasts are now too high for named storms but those tend to require a few more 'canes and one or two more majors to overcome scoring deficit as shown for the 20 8 3 option above. 20 8 3 will win for tae laidir (of boards.ie) and so would 20 8 4, if we got to 21 9 4 the winner would still be tae laidir with you (SC1) around 2nd, and 22 10 4 is good for you to win. Others near the lead now will drop back as the N error begins to bite. Let's see what season values we are scoring in late October, could be a different story then. I also have a slight chance, I would need every new storm to be a 'cane and certainly one if not two majors. But loving (etc) stuff may have better chances. Winner is almost certain to be somebody in the top portion of the forecast table from Ineedsnow to Stormchaser, I think Pauldry at top of forecasts has too many majors and would only move ahead if four more 'canes produce four more majors. That seems unlikely but not ruled out entirely. Fairly certain 22, 10 or higher canes, and x majors will win for Stormchaser (x = 5) or Pauldry (x = 8), so any count you want to speculate that is 22 to ??, 10 to ?? depends on number of majors, Stormchaser wins for 4, 5, 6 and Pauldry wins for 7 or more. I may have only one outcome for a win, need to get to 18 8 3 somehow and then go to 22 12 4 or 23 12 4, various other forecasts have my numbers "stymied" but I can hold off higher storm forecasts as my errors there will stay lower for 22 and 23, after that they escalate too far and the lead goes back to the better of the two 21 forecasts. The other 19 forecast -- same logic but needs two majors to score better than me. Slowly but surely forecasts lower than 17 total storms are being eliminated mathematically. Will post a table of what all plausible counts produce as top scores in a few days. If we get past 23, I think only the 21s have any chance.

New today, a scoring update for possible end of season 20/8/3 which is a plausible end of season result ... if that changes I will adjust the table. Then in November-December look for updates as we close in on the actual total. Current scoring also updated a few posts back. Count is 18/6/3 until possibly one of two active storms makes it to 'cane status. Option for 18/7/3 is also scored in brackets.

Jeb or others, would it need to snow to get that result? Seriously, this current cool, blocked low-energy pattern augurs well for intervals of chilly weather in winter too, with chances for snow. I would be predicting about what the OP was saying, not as sure about which parts of winter will be coldest, it could be intervals in each of DEC, JAN, FEB and into early spring too. I hope there is about 25-30" snow rather than the plausible sounding 18" but I don't see big snowfalls, just a steady trickle of low totals in 3-5 inch range.