Roger Smith

I will go with Plymouth to Newport to Groton sharp cutoff, coastal CT will see a lot more falling snow than measured snow on ground, like 2" reports after perceived 5-8" falls, and even north to BOS there will be snow stickage issues, will guess 5.5" BOS storm reported total, but expect reports of 8-12" not far away, storm jacks 15"-18" near (n-n.e. of) Worcester possibly almost to Nashua, Tolland 9", 40/70 13".

Strange balance of governing factors in play, quite a cold high will get over central Quebec by early Saturday but it's further north than optimal arctic high position for east coasst snowstorm, even so, uppers do not favor very strong marine inflow. Sort of like two prize fighters staying in their respective corners throwing menacing punches to indicate hostility. Do they come to blows? If so where? I am guessing a middle solution which favors a stronger than normal gradient of snowfall outcomes, from near zero at JFK to near 8 inches in lower hudson valley. Would say 1.8" for NYC. As some have said, a lot of falling snow, 75% of it possibly melting on contact, in parts of New York City. A bit of top up to amounts on Sunday p.m. when low has shifted far enough east.

I was thinking 14-18 earlier, now perhaps 18-24 inch potential in BOS n, w. It keeps developing off the coast for about 18 hours. You do want the north trend to stop today, think it will.

06z GFS slower and closer to Long Island. Would expect it to shift rain-snow line to about ISP-JFK but also heavier snow potential n/w suburban areas.

I should perhaps put the work into the forecasts too.

Snow drought continues up this way, just a frozen 1-3 inches around my elevation and bare ground in Columbia valley, usually there would be 1-2 feet here and 6-10 inch base in the valley. Golf courses are open in valleys further west. On NYD it was near 60F in Vancouver BC and 63F was reached on Dec 29 at SEA. Winter? I don't see it around here.

Welcome back everyone, you'll find all 2023 contest scoring and a historical record of the contest going back to earliest days of American Weather Forum (2013 to 2023) in the DEC 2023 thread. We now venture forth into the great unknown of 2024 with clean slates and keen for the challenge. Table of forecasts for January 2024 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck _____ +4.5 _ +4.2 _+3.4 __ +2.0 _+4.8 _+4.4 __+0.5 _-1.0 _-2.0 rainsucks ________________+2.7 _ +3.1 _ +3.2 __ +4.0 _ +1.5 _+2.0 __+2.5 _+1.5 _+1.1 BKViking ________________ +2.0 _ +2.1 _ +2.4 __ +2.2 _ +0.8 _+1.3 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.2 RJay _____________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___+0.4 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 __+1.3 _+2.0 _-0.8 so_whats_happening ____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ -1.3 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 _ -1.8 _ -1.2 wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +1.2 __ -1.5 _ -2.2 _ -1.5 ___ Consensus __________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 __ +1.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 __ +0.4 _ -0.1 _ +0.4 DonSutherland1 _________ +1.1 __+1.4 _ +1.6 __ +2.2 _ -0.1 _ -0.2 __ -0.3 _ -0.4 _+1.2 Scotty Lightning _________ +0.5 _-0.5 _ -1.0 __ -1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _-0.5 Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ________________ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.6 __ +1.3 _ -1.7 _ -0.5 ___ -3.1 _ -1.0 _ -1.6 Rhino16 __________________ -0.2 _ -0.6 _ -0.8 __ +1.0 _ -0.4 _ 0.0 ___ -0.7 _ -0.6 _ +1.2 wxdude64 _______________ -0.4 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ -0.7 _ -1.1 ___ -1.3 _ -1.9 _ +0.2 Roger Smith _____________ -0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 __ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 __ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5 Tom _____________________ -0.8 _ -1.1 __ -1.1 ___ -2.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.6 Persistence _____________ +4.0 _ +5.5 _ +5.1 ___ +8.6 _+2.6 _+1.9 __ +6.2 _+4.7 _+3.5 ____________________ color codes are used for warmest and coldest forecasts (not including Persistence) Consensus for 14 forecasts is average of 7th and 8th ranked.

Results are now final as no further activity since last table posted. Congrats to yotaman, contest winner, and tae laidir from boards.ie, a very close second place. Ties in scoring are broken by order of entry as shown in table above. I have added ranks to table. There is an overall ranking (excluding non-entrants such as "expert forecasts" and contest consensus values) and a ranking within your own forum since three participated. (all info in previous post)

___ The history of the contest (with personal best scores) Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month. In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ... month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492 MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64 APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13 MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem* ___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64 AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW) NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 __ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet. In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532 MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1 APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters) MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 ) JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794 JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592) AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716 OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd) NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462 __ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ... month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542 FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503 APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756 MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495 JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1 AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed) SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644 NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd) DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most) The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd). Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. * Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. _______________________ 2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64 FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446 MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637 APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658 JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756) AUG ______ 646 __ RJay SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active. 2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1 FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second. APR _______ 628 __ RJay MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest) JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj JUL ________778 __ RJay AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627 NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017 DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1 The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 2018 As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1 JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393) _______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1) 2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21 FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550 MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586 NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8) ... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner) MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) JUL _______ 664 _ RJay AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point. OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660 NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential. 2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread). OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty) NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927) __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0. 2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1 MAR ______ 756 _ Tom APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty) JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back iso DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are 18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657 MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720 JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1 SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen) NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 _____ Don S wins four seasons contest, wxallannj second DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _________________________ RJay (18-1) wins extreme forecast contest ______________________________________________________ Don S wins annual contest (7399), wxallannj second (7170) =========================================== 2024 _ JAN _______ 674 _ Rodney S FEB _______ 613 _ rainsucks __ wxallannj (554) MAR ______ 762 _ RJay (758 DonS) APR _______ 794 _ Roger S (774 wxall5annj _ p.b.) __________ RodneyS wins snowfall contest (DonS 2nd) MAY _______ 738 _ wxallannj JUN ________ 737 _ Rhino16__ Scotty L (596) JUL ________ 704 _ Roger S AUG ________692 _ Roger S ___ seasonal max winner Tom SEP ________ 664 _ RJay ___ persistence (706) only win against field so far (not tracked before 2023) OCT ________665 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ RodneyS (540) NOV ________688 _ Roger S _____ four seasons winner wxallannj DEC ________ 675 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ BKViking (659) ____ wxallannj annual winner, DonS 2nd _____________________________________________________ Scotty Lightning wins extreme forecasts 9-0 (RS 9-3, rainsucks 9-3) _______________________________________________________________ Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2024 By Dec 2024, 132 contests and 11 years of contests are now complete. This table is updated during 2025 contest year. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck, Rhino16 or rainsucks), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win. Best monthly score over eleven years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name. Wins in 2013 not counted in table, as formats were different. RodneyS won contest in 2013. FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _+field__ total ___ Wins (Yr)_+field_total _ Snow _ Summer _ Extreme _ Four Seasons DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 ___29.5 ______ 3 _____ 1 ____ 4 ______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 2.5, 1, 3.5 __ RodneyS (794) __________20 ______ 5 ____ 25 _______ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ______3,1,4 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 4 ____ Roger Smith (808) ______18.5 ____ 2.5 ___ 21.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____ RJay (778) ______________ 12 ______ 3 _____15________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 1 ______ 2,0.5,2.5__0.5, 0, 0.5 __ wxallannj (770) __________8.5 ______4 ____ 12.5 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 2 ____ wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5____ 7.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_____ 5 _______ 0 _____--_____ 0 _______ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 3.5 ___8.0 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 1 _____ 5 _______ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 1 ________ 0 ____ StormchaserChuck (724) _3 ______ --_____ 1 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Maxim (698) ______________3 ______--_____ 3 _______ 0 _____--______ 0 ______ 0 ______ 0.5 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ rainsucks (725) ___________3 ______ --_____ 3 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ____2.5*_____ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Tom (756) _________________2 ______ 1 _____ 3 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 2 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ____ 2 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____ Stebo (712)_______________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Rhino16 (737) _____________2 _______--_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5____ 2.5 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____ Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 1 _____ --_____ 1 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Snoski14 ___________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mercurial ___________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ --_____ 0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Orangeburg Wx (682) ______1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Yoda (690) _________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ____ 0.5 _______ 0 _____ -- _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ mikehobbyst _______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CCM _______________________ 0 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 ______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ * so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. (following not counted against wins above) Consensus (756) ___________ 2 Normal (720) _______________ 4 Persistence (706) __________ 1 Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. UPDATED for DEC 2024 and FOUR SEASONS, ANNUAL and EXTREME FORECASTS 2024

So, I do need to check one or two details, for instance IAH is not confirmed yet, and DCA is an estimate despite a final CF6 report with 31st shown as missing data (but a daily climate report suggests a higher eventual anomaly than 3.8 as shown in CF6. It won't affect scoring to any great extent and I believe we can safely say congrats to Don Sutherland for another winning effort in 2023, and also good work wxallannj who did everything possible to overtake at the end ... also well done to hudsonvalley21 who got in ahead of consensus, and RJay for a solid year and a win in the extreme forecast section. I will post a bit more in a day or two and those minor scoring issues will be resolved in a later edit of what you see now. I will also update the contest historical report now in the Sep thread, and eventually bring it over to here. (update _ Jan 1st 21z _ IAH now updated, DCA still includes one missing day, not sure why as 31st climate data appears complete. But scores would all go up or down by same amount for any eventual DCA scoring)

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - DECEMBER 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS 1 DonSutherland1 __________ 810 _728 _ 790 __2328 __900 _910 _820 __2628__4956 __849 _732 _872 __2453 ____7399 2 wxallannj _________________ 795 _760 _ 795__ 2350 __905 _934 _718__ 2557 __4907 __793 _740 _730 __ 2263 ____7170 3 hudsonvalley21 ___________783 _696 _ 781 __2260 __890 _839 _757 __ 2486 __4746 __684 _602 _ 909 __ 2195 ____6941 ___ Consensus _____________ 763 _708 _ 771 __ 2242__ 875 _806 _767 __2448 __4690 __ 687 _647 _ 856 __2190 ____6880 4 RJay ______________________728 _698 _ 696 __2122 __ 835 _810 _818__ 2463 __4585 __ 659 _ 721 _ 857 __ 2237 ____ 6822 5 RodneyS __________________756 _716 _ 766 __2238 __ 731 _685 _806 __2222 __4460 __ 749 _ 564 _ 856 __ 2169 ____6629 6 wxdude64 ________________714 _729 _ 672 __2115 __ 623 _834 _708 __ 2165 __4280 __ 747 _ 658 _ 818 __ 2223 ____6503 7 Scotty Lightning __________ 695 _686 _720 __2101 __ 753 _765 _718 __ 2236 __4337 __ 558 _ 474 _ 696 __ 1728 ____6065 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... scores _ pro-rated to 12 8 Tom (11/12) ________________707 _642 _681 __2030 __638 _680 _702 __2020 __4050 __644 _502 _735 __1881 _____5931 (6472) 9 Roger Smith _______________658 _562 _566 __1786 __617 _591 _750 __ 1958 __ 3744__ 599 _662 _876 __2137 ____ 5881 10 BKViking (11/12) __________682 _614 _687 __ 1983 __753 _660 _701 __2114 __ 4097 __515 _546 _712 __1773 ____ 5870 (6404) ___ Normal __________________ 630 _612 _578 __1820 __ 642 _684 _592 __1918 __ 3738 __578 _412 _736 __1726 ____ 5464 so_whats_happening (8/12)_ 493 _437 _468 __ 1398 __540 _500 _497 __1537 __ 2935 __ 415 _448 _567 __1430 ____4365 (6546) Rhino16 (7/12) _______________490 _510 _502 __ 1502 __546 _526 _292 __1364 __ 2866 __ 395 _302 _504 __1201 ____ 4067 (6972) Stormchaser Chuck (4/12)__ 251 _272 _268 ___791 __ 341 _ 174 _ 224 __ 739 __ 1530 __284 _300 _334 ___918 ____ 2448 (7344) ... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is still (just) ahead of Roger Smith and 180 points below Scotty L ... ... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score is between 6th and 7th place above in the scoring table (just below wxdude64). ... ... ... BKViking's pro-rated score is just below Tom's and gross score just below Roger Smith. ... ... ... Stormchaser Chuck's pro-rated score is between 1st and 2nd, below only contest leader Don Sutherland1 and a little above 2nd place wxallannj. ... ... ... so_whats_happening has a pro-rated score between 5th and 6th a little higher than pro-rated scores for Tom and BKViking. ... ... ... rhino16 has a pro-rated score between 2nd and 3rd just in front of hudsonvalley21 ..................................... ...... Terpeast (1/12) _____________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 ___ 146 ____ 482 (5784) rainsucks (1/12) ____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 ___ 232 ____ 456 (5472) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________567 _450 _512 __1529 __720 _773 _690 __2183 ___3712 __ 484 _685 _612 __1781 ____5493 _______________________________________________________ Persistence virtually tied Normal, and scores were below all forecasters (pro-rated). Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) ^ shared with two other forecasters for one month (if applied to Normal, tied two forecast contest entrants) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____3*___ 1* ___ 0____4 ___ 1 ___ 4*___ 4^___3*___ 2 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug wxallannj __________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ____4***__3*____1 ___ 2 ___ 3*___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2*___4* _ May(t),July, Nov,Dec hudsonvalley21 ____________2*____ 2*____ 1 ___ 1*____ 0^____1 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____1* _ May(t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May RJay ______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0___ 4**^__ 1___ 1*____0 wxdude64 _________________1^____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 2*____ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___3*___2 ___ 2* ___3 ___ 2 _ Jun,Sep Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom (10/11) ________________3*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 2*___ 2* ___ 2*____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Oct BKViking (10/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^___2 ___1 ____ 0 ___ Normal _________________1^ ____ 3 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (7/11) _____________2^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Nov so_whats_happening (7/11) _0 ____ 0____ 2*___ 0 ____ 0 ____0____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0^ (Oct) Stormchaser Chuck (4/11)__2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Feb Terpeast (1/11) ____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0 rainsucks (1/11) ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ (so_whats_happening has a top score for October, before 1% penalty transferred it to Roger Smith. Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY _ FINAL REPORT 2023 86 of 108 forecasts qualify, 53 of them for warmest, and 33 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3, Sep 1-3, Oct 5-1, Nov 4-3, Dec 9-0 ... 19 of 77 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct _Nov _Dec ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _1-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 18-1 ______16.0 - 1.0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1-0 _2-0 _2-0___ 13-1 ______12.5 - 1.0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 2-0_ 1*-0_5-0 __12-3 _____10.5 - 2.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0___ 11-3 ______10.0 - 2 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _2*-0_0-0 _2**0_2-0_1-0 ___11-1 ______ 8.5 - 0.5 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- __--- _ ---- ___9-4 ______ 8.5 - 4.0 Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0_3-0 _ ---_2*-0 _--- ___7-0 _____ 5.33 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1 _2^-1 _0-2 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0___5-5 _____ 3.83 - 5.0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0_0-0 _0-0___5-0 ______3.5 - 0.0 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* _0-1 _0-0 _0-0 __ 5-3 _____ 4.5 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 4-2 _____ 4.0 - 1.5 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 3-0 _____ 1.83 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _--- _ 0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-0 _____ 1.5 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ ---- _---- _---- __ 1-0 ______0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ ----__ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_-- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 ______ 0.5 - 1 ===========================================

Still in 2023 here and it still sucks.

-0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 _ -1.0 _ +0.9 _ +3.5 _ +3.8 _ +4.5

Seventeen people believed there would be more snow than I did -- in itself, some kind of new record. Usually it's closer to four or five maybe. I would probably take a few lower now just because we're still at zero and I thought Dec could produce a few inches, but otherwise, the pattern looks to be evolving in a good direction. Anyway, we are stuck with the original guesses, so over-performers are welcome.

It's probably no coincidence but just as this improved look to models began, the warmest Pacific air started to move north through my part of the world instead of east into the prairies. That opens up the arctic where legitimate cold is starting to develop finally, and it has a chance to replace the Pacific flow at least over the northern half of the lower 48 (east of the Rockies). So while the details remain subject to ebb and flow, I believe the pattern is improving steadily and can support a return to winter in the east. Once it starts it could lock in for a while, pattern changes have been slow for a while now, and it would be fair play to see a long-duration cold spell replace what has been about four or five weeks of mild weather based on dominant Pacific flows.

If you wanted to see trends in graphical form, this is a log of the coldest winter months at YCB in each decade; all ten cases are shown. Coldest calendar months of winters since 1940-41 at Cambridge Bay Decade ________-39.0 _-38.5_-38.0 _-37.5_-37.0 _-36.5_-36.0 _-35.5_-35.0 _-34.5_-34.0 _-33.5_-33.0 _-32.5_-32.0 _-31.5_-31.0 _-30.5_-30.0 _-29.5_-29.0 C (-30C = -22F) 1941-50 ____ 5432X0987654321 X9876543X10987X543210 9876543210 X87m54X21X98XX54321098765432109876X4321098765432109876A432109876543210 A=1940 1951-60 ____ 54X210987X43X109876543XX09m7X4310 98X65432109X765432109X765432109876X43210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 1961-70 ____ 543210 987654X21X98XX543210XmX64X098765432X09X7654321X98765432109876543210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 1971-80 ____ 543210 9X7643X10 9876543210 X8765432109XX65432m0987XXXX21098765432109876543210 9876 54321098X65432109876 5432 1098 7654 3210 1981-90 ____ 5432109876543X109876X32109876X432109876543XXmX10X87654321098764321X987643210 987654XX21098765432109876 5432 1098 7654 3210 1991-2000 _ 543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765XX2109X7654321X9876X432109m76543XX10 XX76543X10987654321098765432109876543210 2001-10 ____543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98X654321XXX76X43210987m54321098X6543X10 98X654321098765432109876X43210987654321X 2011-20 ____543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 432X09876543210 98 76 54 3210 98765432XX9876X4321XmXXX6543X10X87654321098765432109876543210 2021-23 ___ 543210 98765 43210 98765 43210 98765 432 1 0 9 876543210 9X765432109876 543210 9876X43X10 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 9876 5432 1098 7654 3210 (I will add 2024-2030 going forward, if the discussion by 2028 is long, I will reproduce the graph at a later point in the thread) ... a few of the data points above are identical but are shown 0.1 apart. ... to remove graph discontinuity, unused numerals are sometimes removed, 5 or closest available is usually removed, to align data points ... median values are indicated by red symbols __ m __ ... it should be noted that 1940 (not in graph as X ) had a higher value (-29.5) indicated by A

I would say the changes in Canada's arctic climate are mostly to be seen in a longer "summer" interval, the snow-free portion of the year seems to be about two weeks longer at each end of the season in recent decades (let's say it has shifted from previous mid-June to mid-August to all of June, July and August in rough terms). The winters are not quite as severe on average and you do see more frequent (albeit brief) incursions of mild air masses, especially in the eastern arctic. I don't think we have reached a tipping point yet but of course this study is only based on weather and not sea ice which may be changing its distribution at a faster rate. Also to the point about Antarctica, southern hemisphere weather patterns do not always move in lock-step with northern hemisphere, so it would be quite possible to find different trends in the northern and southern polar temperature trends, or sea ice trends (not to say we have found those, but it would not surprise me if trends were not carbon copies). One trend I am anticipating but do not see starting yet, would be for greater snowfall in Canada's arctic if winters were to get significantly warmer. So far the increase at the locations studied is on the order of 2 C deg, and since they started off from very low values like -34 C, it is still a very cold and dry winter climate. Almost all of the snow that accumulates at Cambridge Bay occurs in October and November, then a second snowy interval can occur (less regularly) in late April to early June before the entire accumulation melts. Further east it's similar but you do see some ebb and flow in snow depth during mid-winter from a combination of milder spells and outer edges of Atlantic snowstorms. I should look at Iqualuit (Frobisher Bay) on Baffin Island to see if trends there show significant differences. It is a bit closer to the Atlantic and possibly could show different trends.

I'm active on UK forum net-weather so over there, 2023 will be the second warmest year, last year (2022) was warmest, in the very long series of Central England Temperature data (1659-2023). Last year was 11.1 C, this year will be rounding off at 11.1 also but it's generally thought they will assign it second place based on second decimal values. 2014 is third in their records, and 2006 is fourth. It's a very similar record of steadily rising averages since about 1980. One of the warmer past intervals was around 1724 to 1739, years that are mostly a blank for North American record keeping. Coldest intervals were 1675 to 1709 (maunder minimum) and 1795 to 1823 (Dalton minimum). 1870s to 1910s were also quite cold. Another similar feature of 2023 in UK (and Ireland) was despite overall warmth, not a particularly hot core of summer, with max temps around 90F in early to mid- June and September (which was their month to set a new record high average of 17.0 C). This past month in the UK started very cold but soon overcame that. You may recall an episode with heavy snow in Bavaria, the UK got a bit of snow then and sub-zero (C) temps, but the month warmed up quickly and averaged 7.0 C which will be around 15th warmest (like eastern US, 2015 is well out ahead of the rest, but unlike eastern US, most of the top ten Decembers are way back in their records, 1974 and 1934 are second and third, and so e of their top ten are in the 18th century.) Also looking a bit closer to NYC, Toronto will record its fourth warmest year (possibly fifth, waiting for final Dec data), and also like NYC, a warm year but without any notable summer heat, annual max of only 91F (33C) occurred on June 2nd and again Sep 4th. Their long-term average for that statistic is 96F or about 35.5 C. I have tables of comparative NYC and Toronto data in my study in climate change section, quite often ranks will be similar, but you do find a few months that turn out relatively warmer at one or the other location in certain patterns. July 1916 and July 1921 were both considerably warmer (relative to normals) at Toronto, but periods in 1979 and 2003 (among others) were relatively warmer at NYC, storm tracks must have been between the two locations frequently in such years. This trend to bland, not-cold weather is not exactly what was feared from global warming, it's more like global blanding. I don't prefer it, but perhaps this is going to be the new normal, and weather forums will slowly empty out as people take up new hobbies, as tracking this sort of "muck" as they like to call it in the UK is a borefest of epic proportions. (rant over) (#make it stop)

Okay, I've done a bit of work on winter severity index. The index is designed to score zero to 100 although it could go higher than 100. As snow is probably about 2/3 of the contribution to a winter's perceived severity, the temperature index is designed to run from 0 to 40, and the snowfall index from 0 to 80. Temperature index is derived from D-J-F mean (in C deg), with 4.0 C being zero, and every rounded 0.2 C below that level being worth one point. The coldest winter (1917-18) scored 40, second coldest 1880-1881 and 1976-77 scored 35. Four winters scored zero. For snowfall the index value is the number of total inches, over the season, rounded to nearest integer. This part of the severity index scored from 2 (last winter) to 77 (1995-96). I flagged * cases where more than 1/3 of winter snowfall came after meteorological winter ended, but this qualifier means little in terms of perception since people expect snow to fall into early spring anyway. The winter moving furthest up the severity index on basis of its march-april snowfalls was probably 1895-1896 which had only 29 index points at end of Feb (rank t124) and ended up with 63 to rank t37. (of 155 winters) The index values are shown both in chronological order and in rank order. Ties for rank order are listed in their chronological order. One could probably tinker with this method and improve it, for example, the zero temp index for 2015-16 could be raised to 2 or even 5 because of a period of below normal temps in Feb, that was not matched in equally futile winters by average alone. Outliers include 1948-1949, a relatively mild winter with a large snowfall total (most of it in Dec 1948), and several cold dry winters like 1962-63 which may be recalled as more severe simply because of persistent cold. It has not been too bad a run since 1992. The past 31 winters include ranks 1, 6, t9, t11, t16, t16, t24, 28, t45, t45, t53 _ eleven of 31 were in top sixty. Of course the other end of the table is well represented also, in a similar range we find ranks 155, 154, 152, 151, 150, 147, 146, t138, t133, t133, t124, t119, t110, t107, t107, t96, for a total of 16 of 31. Only four winters could be considered near average in winter severity (in past 31). Winter Severity Index (1869 to 2023) Winter _______DJF (C) _snow" _ Index values 1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43** 1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29) 1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56 1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40 1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____30 _ 60 __ 90 1873-1874 ____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52 1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____32 _ 56 __ 88 1875-1876 ____ 1.17 __ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33 1876-1877 ____-1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66 1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 _____ 16 __ 8 __ 24 1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64 1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19) 1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __71 1881-1882 ____ 1.27 __ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45 1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __74 1883-1884 ____-1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __68 1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __64 1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47 1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57 1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54) 1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35 1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9) 1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46 1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23) 1892-1893 ____-2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80 1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59 1894-1895 ____-1.18 _ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53 1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29) 1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65 1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30 1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79 1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31 1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31 1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50 1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50 1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66 1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80 1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16) 1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75 1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51 1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____ 9 _ 20 __ 29 1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51 1910-1911 ____-0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44 1911-1912 ____-1.16 _ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56 1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23 1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63 1914-1915 _____0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25) 1915-1916 ____-0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43) 1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74 1917-1918 ____-3.90 _ 34.5 ____40 _ 35 __ 75 1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 __ 4 ___ 13* (10) 1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____35 _ 48 __ 83 1920-1921 ____ 1.14 _ 18.6 _____ 14 _ 19 __ 33 1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52 1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____28 _ 60 __ 88 1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31) 1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48 1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____23 _ 32 __ 55 1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____22 _ 22 __ 44 1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30 1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29 1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27 1930-1931 ____ 0.41 __ 11.6 ____ 18 _ 12 __ 30 1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 __ 5 ___ 5 1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34 1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83 1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59 1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66 1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23 1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25) 1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51 1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50 1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41) 1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32 1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53 1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31) 1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45 1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54 1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47 1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93 1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22 1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23) 1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _ 15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22 1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25 1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31 1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56 1956-1957 ____ 1.18 __ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36 1957-1958 ____-0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49) 1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40 1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32) 1960-1961 ____-1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80 1961-1962 ____-0.18 _ 18.1 _____ 21 _ 18 __ 39 1962-1963 ____-2.03 _ 16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46 1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66 1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45 1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35 1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54) 1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47 1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52 1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55 1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40 1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38 1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 __ 3 __ 18 1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40 1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23 1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35 1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60 1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81 1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52 1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29 1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33) 1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39) 1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36 1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29) 1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37 1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35 1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41 1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37 1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23 1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28 1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31 1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 _____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15) 1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30) 1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81 1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 _____ 11 _ 12 __ 23 1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101 1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19 1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 __ 6 __ 10 *(5) 1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15) 1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30 2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56 2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 __ 4 ___ 4 2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77 2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67 2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57 2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51 2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19) 2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25 2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39) 2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71 2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85 2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 __ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct) 2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38 2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____23 _ 57 __ 80 2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____27 _ 50 __ 77* (58) 2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33 2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25) 2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39) 2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25) 2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 _____ 6 __ 5 __ 11 2020-2021 ____ 1.16 _ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53 2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29 2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 ____ 0 ___ 2 __ 2 ______________________________ * more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st. In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, but soon after end of "winter" and in 1981 extra snow fell just about as soon as "winter" ended, so these qualifiers are not all of equal significance, in terms of later addition to winter severity. And it should be kept in mind, winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. I noted the situation for 2011-12 (half of snowfall total fell in Oct) but I didn't look for any cases where a snowy Nov distorted the picture, figuring that a heavy Nov snowfall probably came with cold that was not part of the indexed cold and perhaps that was offset by Feb being war in some cases. ** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature estimate was -1.2 C) Winter Severity in Order Rank _ Winter _____ Temp _ Snow ____ Points __ TOTAL _01 __ 1995-1996 ____-0.95 _ 75.6 ____ 25 _ 76 _ 101 _02 __ 1947-1948 ____-1.79 _ 63.9 ____ 29 _ 64 __ 93 _03 __ 1872-1873 ____-2.07 _ 60.2 ____ 30 _ 60 __ 90 _04t__ 1874-1875 ____-2.45 _ 56.4 ____ 32 _ 56 __ 88 _04t__ 1922-1923 ____-1.65 _ 60.4 ____ 28 _ 60 __ 88 _06 __ 2010-2011 ____-0.64 _ 61.9 ____ 23 _ 62 __ 85 _07t__ 1919-1920 ____-2.97 _ 47.6 ____ 35 _ 48 __ 83 _07t__ 1933-1934 ____-2.21 _ 52.0 ____ 31 _ 52 __ 83 _09t__ 1977-1978 ____-1.94 _ 50.7 ____ 30 _ 51 __ 81 _09t__ 1993-1994 ____-1.57 _ 53.4 ____ 28 _ 53 __ 81 _11t__ 1892-1893 ____ -2.18 _ 49.4 ____ 31 _ 49 __ 80 _11t __ 1904-1905 ____-2.45 _ 48.2 ____ 32 _ 48 __ 80 _11t__ 1960-1961 ____ -1.00 _ 54.7 ____ 25 _ 55 __ 80 _11t__ 2013-2014 ____-0.60 _ 57.4 ____ 23 _ 57 __ 80 _15 __ 1898-1899 ____-0.59 _ 55.9 ____ 23 _ 56 __ 79 _16t__ 2002-2003 ____-1.55 _ 49.3 ____ 28 _ 49 __ 77 _16t__ 2014-2015 ____-1.42 _ 50.3 ____ 27 _ 50 __ 77* (58) _18 __ 1887-1888 ____-1.93 _ 45.5 ____ 30 _ 46 __ 76* (54) _19t__ 1906-1907 ____-0.49 _ 53.2 ____ 22 _ 53 __ 75 _19t__ 1917-1918 ____ -3.90 _ 34.5 ____ 40 _ 35 __ 75 _21t__ 1882-1883 ____-1.95 _ 44.1 ____ 30 _ 44 __ 74 _21t__ 1916-1917 ____-0.55 _ 50.7 ____ 23 _ 51 __ 74 _23 __ 1915-1916 ____ -0.14 _ 50.7 ____ 21 _ 51 __ 72* (43) _24t__ 1880-1881 ____-2.92 _ 35.6 ____ 35 _ 36 __ 71 _24t__ 1966-1967 ____ 0.27 _ 51.5 ____ 19 _ 52 __ 71* (54) _24t__ 2009-2010 ____-0.08 _ 51.4 ____ 20 _ 51 __ 71 _27 __ 1883-1884 ____ -1.08 _ 43.1 ____ 25 _ 43 __ 68 _28 __ 2003-2004 ____-0.86 _ 42.6 ____ 24 _ 43 __ 67 _29t__ 1876-1877 ____ -1.18 _ 40.3 ____ 26 _ 40 __ 66 _29t__ 1903-1904 ____-2.86 _ 32.4 ____ 34 _ 32 __ 66 _29t__ 1935-1936 ____-2.64 _ 33.2 ____ 33 _ 33 __ 66 _29t__ 1957-1958 ____ -0.15 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66* (49) _29t__ 1963-1964 ____-0.19 _ 44.7 ____ 21 _ 45 __ 66 _34 __ 1896-1897 ____ 0.21 _ 45.6 ____ 19 _ 46 __ 65 _35t__ 1878-1879 ____-1.54 _ 35.8 ____ 28 _ 36 __ 64 _35t__ 1884-1885 ____-2.01 _ 34.4 ____ 30 _ 34 __ 64 _37t__ 1895-1896 ____ 0.50 _ 46.0 ____ 17 _ 46 __ 63* (29) _37t__ 1913-1914 ____-0.48 _ 40.5 ____ 22 _ 41 __ 63* (42) _39t__ 1940-1941 ____-0.13 _ 39.0 ____ 21 _ 39 __ 60* (41) _39t__ 1976-1977 ____-2.95 _ 24.5 ____ 35 _ 25 __ 60 _41t__ 1893-1894 ____-0.07 _ 39.2 ____ 20 _ 39 __ 59 _41t__ 1934-1935 ____-1.06 _ 33.8 ____ 25 _ 34 __ 59 _43t__ 1886-1887 ____-1.08 _ 31.9 ____ 25 _ 32 __ 57 _43t__ 2004-2005 ____ 0.79 _ 41.0 ____ 16 _ 41 __ 57 _45t__ 1870-1871 ____-0.63 _ 33.1 ____ 23 _ 33 __ 56 _45t__ 1911-1912 ____ -1.16 __ 29.5 ____ 26 _ 30 __ 56 _45t__ 1955-1956 ____-0.37 _ 33.5 ____ 22 _ 34 __ 56 _45t__ 2000-2001 ____-0.25 _ 35.0 ____ 21 _ 35 __ 56 _45t__ 2017-2018 ____ 0.96 _ 40.9 ____ 15 _ 41 __ 56* (39) _50t__ 1925-1926 ____-0.50 _ 32.4 ____ 23 _ 32 __ 55 _50t__ 1969-1970 ____-1.73 _ 25.6 ____ 29 _ 26 __ 55 _52 __ 1945-1946 ____-0.55 _ 31.4 ____ 23 _ 31 __ 54 _53t__ 1894-1895 ____-1.18 __ 27.0 ____ 26 _ 27 __ 53 _53t__ 1942-1943 ____-0.61 _ 29.5 ____ 23 _ 30 __ 53 _53t__ 2020-2021 ____ 1.16 __ 38.6 ____ 14 _ 39 __ 53 _56t__ 1873-1874 _____ 1.11 __ 37.7 ____ 14 _ 38 __ 52 _56t__ 1921-1922 ____-0.81 _ 27.8 ____ 24 _ 28 __ 52 _56t__ 1968-1969 ____-0.40 _ 30.2 ____ 22 _ 30 __ 52 _56t__ 1978-1979 ____-0.63 _ 29.4 ____ 23 _ 29 __ 52 _60t__ 1907-1908 ____ 0.40 _ 33.2 ____ 18 _ 33 __ 51 _60t__ 1909-1910 ____-0.76 _ 27.2 ____ 24 _ 27 __ 51 _60t__ 1938-1939 ____ 1.29 _ 37.3 ____ 14 _ 37 __ 51 _60t__ 1959-1960 ____ 1.54 _ 39.2 ____ 12 _ 39 __ 51* (32) _60t__ 2005-2006 ____ 1.84 _ 40.0 ____ 11 _ 40 __ 51 _65t__ 1901-1902 ____-0.30 _ 28.3 ____ 22 _ 28 __ 50 _65t__ 1902-1903 ____-0.28 _ 28.8 ____ 21 _ 29 __ 50 _65t__ 1939-1940 ____-0.82 _ 25.7 ____ 24 _ 26 __ 50 _68 __ 1981-1982 ____-0.75 _ 24.6 ____ 24 _ 25 __ 49* (39) _69 __ 1924-1925 ____ 0.30 _ 29.6 ____ 18 _ 30 __ 48 _70t__ 1885-1886 ____-1.21 _ 20.8 ____ 26 _ 21 __ 47 _70t__ 1946-1947 ____ 0.86 _ 30.6 ____ 16 _ 31 __ 47 _70t__ 1948-1949 ____ 2.91 _ 42.0 _____ 5 _ 42 __ 47 _70t__ 1967-1968 ____-1.31 _ 19.5 ____ 27 _ 20 __ 47 _70t__ 2008-2009 ____ 0.14 _ 27.6 ____ 19 _ 28 __ 47* (39) _75t__ 1890-1891 ____ 0.61 _ 28.8 ____ 17 _ 29 __ 46 _75t__ 1962-1963 ____-2.03 _16.3 ____ 30 _ 16 __ 46 _77t__ 1881-1882 ____ 1.27 _ 31.4 ____ 14 _ 31 __ 45 _77t__ 1914-1915 ____ 0.71 _ 28.8 ____ 16 _ 29 __ 45* (25) _77t__ 1944-1945 ____-1.55 _ 27.1 ____ 28 _ 27 __ 45 _77t__ 1964-1965 ____-0.16 _ 24.4 ____ 21 _ 24 __ 45 _81t__ 1910-1911 ____ -0.07 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44 _81t__ 1926-1927 ____-0.46 _ 22.3 ____ 22 _ 22 __ 44 _81t__ 1943-1944 ____ 0.06 _ 23.8 ____ 20 _ 24 __ 44* (31) _84t__ 1868-1869 ____ 1.54 _ 30.5 ____ 12 _ 31 __ 43** _84t__ 1923-1924 ____ 0.91 _ 27.5 ____ 15 _ 28 __ 43* (31) _86t__ 1980-1981 ____-0.68 _ 19.4 ____ 23 _ 19 __ 42* (33) _86t__ 1992-1993 ____ 0.57 _ 24.5 ____ 17 _ 25 __ 42* (30) _88t__ 1869-1870 ____ 1.39 _ 27.8 ____ 13 _ 28 __ 41* (29) _88t__ 1983-1984 ____ 0.70 _ 25.4 ____ 16 _ 25 __ 41* (29) _88t__ 1986-1987 ____ 0.48 _ 23.1 ____ 18 _ 23 __ 41 _91t__ 1871-1872 ____ -1.50 _ 12.1 ____ 28 _ 12 __ 40 _91t__ 1958-1959 ____-1.43 _ 13.0 ____ 27 _ 13 __ 40 _91t__ 1970-1971 ____-0.88 _ 15.5 ____ 24 _ 16 __ 40 _91t__ 1973-1974 ____ 0.85 _ 23.5 ____ 16 _ 24 __ 40 _95 __ 1961-1962 ____ -0.18 _ 18.1 ____ 21 _ 18 __ 39 _96t__ 1971-1972 ____ 1.09 _ 22.9 ____ 15 _ 23 __ 38 _96t__ 2012-2013 ____ 1.59 _ 26.1 ____ 12 _ 26 __ 38 _98t__ 1984-1985 ____ 1.35 _ 24.1 ____ 13 _ 24 __ 37 _98t__ 1987-1988 ____ 0.38 _ 19.1 ____ 18 _ 19 __ 37 100t__ 1891-1892 ____ 1.87 _ 25.3 ____ 11 _ 25 __ 36* (23) 100t__ 1956-1957 ____ 1.18 _ 21.9 ____ 14 _ 22 __ 36 100t__ 1982-1983 ____ 2.18 _ 27.2 _____ 9 _ 27 __ 36 103t__ 1888-1889 ____ 0.31 _ 16.5 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35 103t__ 1965-1966 ____ 1.28 _ 21.4 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35 103t__ 1975-1976 ____ 0.33 _ 17.3 ____ 18 _ 17 __ 35 103t__ 1985-1986 ____-0.30 _ 13.0 ____ 22 _ 13 __ 35 107t__ 2016-2017 ____ 2.95 _ 30.2 _____ 5 _ 30 __ 35* (25) 107t__ 2018-2019 ____ 1.27 _ 20.5 ____ 14 _ 21 __ 35* (25) 109 __ 1932-1933 ____ 2.64 _ 27.0 _____ 7 _ 27 __ 34 110t__ 1875-1876 ____ 1.17 _ 18.8 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33 110t__ 1920-1921 ____ 1.14 _ 18.6 ____ 14 _ 19 __ 33 110t__ 2015-2016 ____ 3.90 _ 32.8 _____ 0 _ 33 __ 33 113t__ 1937-1938 ____ 0.68 _ 15.1 ____ 17 _ 15 __ 32* (25) 113t__ 1941-1942 ____-0.20 _ 11.3 ____ 21 _ 11 __ 32 115t__ 1899-1900 ____ 0.60 _ 13.6 ____ 17 _ 14 __ 31 115t__ 1900-1901 ____-0.44 __ 9.1 ____ 22 __ 9 __ 31 115t__ 1954-1955 ____ 0.29 _ 11.5 ____ 19 _ 12 __ 31 115t__ 1990-1991 ____ 2.88 _ 24.9 _____ 6 _ 25 __ 31 119t__ 1897-1898 ____ 2.28 _ 21.2 _____ 9 _ 21 __ 30 119t__ 1927-1928 ____ 0.93 _ 14.5 ____ 15 _ 15 __ 30 119t__ 1930-1931 ____ 0.41 _ 11.6 ____ 18 __12 __ 30 119t__ 1951-1952 ____ 1.98 _ 19.7 ____ 10 _ 20 __ 30* (23) 119t__ 1999-2000 ____ 1.23 _ 16.3 ____ 14 _ 16 __ 30 124t__ 1908-1909 ____ 2.29 _ 20.4 _____9 _ 20 __ 29 124t__ 1928-1929 ____ 1.00 _ 13.8 ____ 15 _ 14 __ 29 124t__ 1979-1980 ____ 0.89 _ 12.8 ____ 16 _ 13 __ 29 124t__ 2021-2022 ____ 1.75 _ 17.9 ____ 11 _ 18 __ 29 128t__ 1905-1906 ____ 2.31 _ 20.0 _____ 8 _ 20 __ 28* (16) 128t__ 1989-1990 ____ 0.95 _ 13.4 ____ 15 _ 13 __ 28 130t__ 1879-1880 ____ 3.28 _ 22.7 _____ 4 _ 23 __ 27* (19) 130t__ 1929-1930 ____ 1.37 _ 13.6 ____ 13 _ 14 __ 27 132 __ 1889-1890 ____ 3.51 _ 24.4 _____ 2 _ 24 __ 26* (9) 133t__ 1953-1954 ____ 2.20 _ 15.8 _____ 9 _ 16 __ 25 133t__ 2006-2007 ____ 1.36 _ 12.4 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25* (19) 133t__ 2007-2008 ____ 1.35 _ 11.9 ____ 13 _ 12 __ 25 136t__ 1877-1878 ____ 0.72 __ 8.1 ____ 16 ___ 8 __ 24 136t__ 1991-1992 ____ 1.81 _ 12.6 ____ 11 _ 13 __ 24* (15) 138t__ 1912-1913 ____ 2.45 _ 15.3 _____ 8 _ 15 __ 23 138t__ 1936-1937 ____ 2.66 _ 15.6 _____ 7 _ 16 __ 23 138t__ 1974-1975 ____ 2.05 _ 13.1 ____ 10 _ 13 __ 23 138t__ 1988-1989 ____ 1.09 __ 8.1 ____ 15 __ 8 __ 23 138t__ 1994-1995 ____ 1.74 _ 11.8 ____ 11 _ 12 __ 23 143t__ 1949-1950 ____ 2.34 _ 14.0 _____ 8 _ 14 __ 22 143t__ 1950-1951 ____ 1.40 __ 9.3 ____ 13 __ 9 __ 22 143t__ 1952-1953 ____ 2.61 _ 15.1 _____ 7 _ 15 __ 22 146 __ 1998-1999 ____ 2.60 _ 12.7 _____ 7 _ 13 __ 20* (15) 147 __ 1996-1997 ____ 2.14 _ 10.0 _____ 9 _ 10 __ 19 148 __ 1972-1973 ____ 0.94 __ 2.8 ____ 15 ___3 __ 18 149 __ 1918-1919 ____ 2.17 __ 3.8 _____ 9 ___ 4 __ 13* (10) 150 __ 2019-2020 ____ 2.88 __ 4.8 ____ 6 ___ 5 __ 11 151 __ 1997-1998 ____ 3.14 __ 5.5 _____ 4 ___ 6 __ 10 *(5) 152 __ 2011-2012 ____ 3.62 __ 7.4 _____ 2 ___ 7 ___ 9 (6 excl Oct) 153 __ 1931-1932 ____ 3.90 __ 5.3 _____ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 154 __ 2001-2002 ____ 4.20 __ 3.5 _____ 0 ___ 4 ___ 4 155 __ 2022-2023 ____ 3.92 __ 2.3 _____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2 _____________________________ * more than a third of snow was recorded mar-apr, figure in brackets was winter severity on mar 1st. In winter 1887-88, 22 of the 47 snow points came in mar, so while not quite half the total, a figure is shown in brackets also. 1870 was similar, almost alf its snow points came in mar-apr. ... winters not flagged for this also get a few of their snowfall points in mar-apr. ** a conservative estimate was made for Dec 1868 (no data) based on weather maps available, winter severity could be closer to 50 if estimates are too conservative, as Dec 1868 looked fairly cold and snowy. (the snow estimate was only 5", temperature est was -1.2 C)

(the net-weather thread had a few additions from other readers, the only ones perhaps worth a look would be those with graphs of data. I also have an excel file which needs updating, which I will post here as soon as it is updated) ... I have updated as much of these arctic summaries as possible, given that some of the reporting sites are suffering from variable amounts of missing data, more so than before 2020. Meanwhile I found a trip log from July-August 2008 for large portions of the interior of Victoria Island. The context is that Victoria Island is a huge expanse, the world's 8th largest island and similar in size to Honshu (7th) and Great Britain (9th). Most of the land is rolling tundra with sedimentary rock formations underlying extensive areas of small ponds and lakes, and chaotic drainage. However one large river, the Kuujjua, rises in northeast portions of Victoria Island not far from the last large indentation before the Storkerson Peninsula, and flows about 500 km west to reach the Arctic Ocean at the end of one of the western inlets. The trip report includes a lot of details on the weather in 2008 (I found it was 2008 and not 2009 as you might surmise from the log publication date in spring 2010, from a reference to an eclipse of the Sun which I verified happened on Aug 1, 2008). Also the weather details match to some extent what Cambridge Bay reported at certain times in summer 2008 (with the qualifier that the canoeists' location was quite some distance north and later northwest of YCB). So here's their report: http://www.pakboats.com/kuujjua-river-beaufort-sea-expedition/

Frequency of temperature extremes for the full data set (76 years) at Eureka, Nunavut - Canada 1948-2023 ___ Winter min ______ 3.5 Dec, 18.5 Jan, 27.5 Feb, 26.5 Mar 1948-2023 ___ Coldest month ___ 7.0 Dec, 16.0 Jan, 29.5 Feb, 23.5 Mar 1948-2023 ___ Summer max ____ 11 Jun __ 56 Jul __ 9 Aug 1948-2023 ___ Warmest Months __ 0 Jun __ 72.5 Jul __ 3.5 Aug

Here are some similar data (compaed to Cambridge Bay and Resolute) for Eureka, which is further north located in central Ellesmere Island, at 80N 86W and just 10 meters above sea level in a glacial valley surrounded by permanent ice fields and glaciers. Since the summer here is quite brief, I have left out the variables such as last frost, last snow cover, first frost and first snow cover. We'll check the trends on temperatures of both extremes, maximum snow depth and first autumn -20 C reading.. It should be noted that the prevailing climate is much drier than in the central arctic islands, and 10-15 cm snow cover is quite typical with strong winds sometimes leading to patches of bare frozen ground. The climate is drier than further south, and is known as "arctic desert" although it does support some scrubby vegetation that persist despite a very short growth season mid-June to early August. Most summers have very little rain and can continue to see sporadic light snowfalls, but one or two cases were noted of 25 mm rainfalls. A daily snowfall of more than 10 cm would be unusual at any point in the season. One heavier snowfall noted was 18 cm Sept 17-19 1966. The snow pack stays fairly constant once it reaches maximum depth and only begins to melt at the very end of May or first week of June. |At this latitude, darkness begins in early November and lasts until mid-February. Continual daylight begins in late April and persists to early August. * The min temp and coldest month could be in the preceding Nov or Dec although usually as shown they are in the part of the winter in the same calendar year. So what is showing is the coldest reading of each winter, not each calendar year. YEAR ____ Min temp*_ coldest mo*__Max snow depth__Max temp_warmest mo__first -20 1948 _____ -52.8 Mar __ -42.6 Feb __ _____________ _____ 18.9 Jul ___ 6.2 Jul _____ Sep 17 1949 _____ -49.4 Dec __ -41.8 Dec __ _____________ _____ 15.0 Jul ___ 5.9 Jul _____ Sep 29 1950 _____ -50.6 Feb __ -42.0 Jan __ _____________ _____ 19.4 Jul ___ 6.1 Jul _____ Sep 17 1951 _____ -50.0 Jan __ -40.3 Feb __ _____________ _____ 15.6 Jul ___ 5.7 Jul _____ Sep 27 1952 _____ -51.2 Jan __ -38.8 Dec __ _____________ _____ 16.7 Jul ___ 6.7 Jul _____ Oct 1 1953 _____ -50.6 Mar __ -39.6 Feb __ _____________ _____ 12.8 Jul ___ 4.2 Jul _____ Sep 23 1954 _____ -47.8 Feb __ -38.4 Jan __ _____________ _____ 16.1 Jun ___ 5.6 Jul _____ Oct 2 1955 _____ -48.9 Feb __ -40.1 Mar __ _____________ _____ 13.3 Aug ___3.8 Jul,Aug _ Oct 2 1956 _____ -52.2 Mar __ -37.7 Mar__37 cm Apr 17-Jun 2_ 14.4 Jul ___ 5.5 Jul _____ Sep 23 1957 _____ -48.9 Jan __ -40.5 Jan __ 10 cm Mar 1-May 14_ 17.8 Jun __ 6.8 Jul _____ Sep 29 1958 _____ -52.2 Feb __ -41.5 Dec __23 cm Jan 23-May 17_18.9 Jul __ 5.8 Jul _____ Oct 2 1959 _____ -48.3 Feb __ -39.6 Mar __20 cm Jan 20-May 31_16.7 Jul __ 6.3 Jul _____ Sep 29 1960 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -39.5 Mar __23 cm May 6-14 _____17.2 Jun __ 6.6 Jul _____ Oct 1 mean _____ -50.3 _____ -40.2 _____ 23 cm Mar 7-May 10 __16.4 _____ 5.8 ________ Sep 27 1961 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -39.7 Mar __18 cm Feb 18-May 30 _15.6 Aug _ 4.5 Jul _____ Sep 14 1962 _____ -46.7 J, F __ -39.1 Feb __ 28 cm Apr 1-29 ______ 18.3 Jul __ 7.5 Jul _____ Sep 26 1963 _____ -48.9 Jan __ -39.1 Mar __ 28 cm Feb 11-May 27_ 15.0 Jul __ 5.8 Jul _____ Sep 29 1964 _____ -51.2 Mar __ -38.8 Mar __ 25 cm Apr 30-May 7 __12.2 Aug _ 3.7 Aug ____Sep 28 1965 _____ -45.2 Feb __ -37.2 Feb __ 15 cm May 7 - 21 _____ 16.7 Aug _ 4.1 Jul _____ Sep 20 1966 _____ -53.3 Jan __ -39.4 Mar __ 18 cm May 11-21 _____ 14.4 Aug _ 5.3 Aug_____Sep 25 1967 _____ -51.7 Feb __ -41.7 Feb __ 23 cm Jan 4-Apr 4 ____ 14.4 Jun _ 4.5 Jul _____ Sep 25 1968 _____ -51.2 Jan __ -40.0 Jan __ 20 cm Feb 24-Apr 30 _ 18.3 Jul __6.3 Jul _____ Sep 29 1969 _____ -48.3 Mar __ -38.6 Mar __ 18 cm May 9 - 21 _____ 13.3 Jun _ 4.6 Jul _____ Sep 19 1970 _____ -50.6 Jan __ -37.9 Feb __ 30 cm Apr 10-May 22 _ 13.3 Aug _ 5.3 Jul _____ Sep 24 mean _____-49.9 ______-39.2 ______22 cm Mar 26- May 12 __ 15.2 ____ 5.2 __________Sep 24 ====================================================== In these first 23 years of data, not much change decade to decade, there was a slight decrease in the summer temperature parameters and the -20 C season began a bit earlier (by three days). The earliest -20C is about three weeks to a month earlier than at YRB or YCB. YEAR ____ Coldest min and month ___ Max snow depth ______ Warmest max and month __ First -20 C 1971 _____ -48.9 D, F __ -42.5 Feb __ 30 cm May 7-20 ________ 17.2 Jul __ 7.0 Jul _____ Sep 24 1972 _____ -53.9 Feb __ -39.4 Jan ___23 cm Mar 10 - June 3 ___ 11.7 Jul __ 4.6 Jul _____ Sep 20 1973 _____ -52.8 Feb __ -43.2 Feb __ 28 cm Apr 4 - May 1 _____ 11.1 Jul __ 4.5 Jul _____ Sep 26 1974 _____ -50.6 Feb __ -42.3 Jan __ 18 cm Apr 16 - June 22 ___ 12.8 Jul __ 4.8 Jul _____ Sep 22 1975 _____ -51.7 Feb __ -42.9 Feb __ 25 cm Nov 14-27 1974 ____16.1 Jul __ 4.9 Jul _____ Sep 26 1976 _____ -47.8 Mar __ -37.5 Feb __ 28 cm Apr 3 - May 31 _____18.9 Jul __ 5.1 Jul _____ Sep 21 1977 _____ -50.5 Mar __ -42.2 Mar __ 23 cm Jan 16 - Feb 6 _____ 17.5 Jul __ 6.7 Jul _____ Sep 25 1978 _____ -50.8 Dec __ -39.9 Dec __48 cm May 13 - 22 ________17.3 Jul __ 6.8 Jul _____ Sep 27 1979 _____ -55.3 Feb __ -47.9 Feb __ 20 cm Apr 13 - May 2 _____ 14.5 Jul __ 5.2 Jul _____ Sep 14 1980 _____ -49.8 Jan __ -38.4 Dec __ 34 cm Mar 21 - 27 ________14.7 Jul __ 5.5 Jul _____ Sep 17 mean _____-51.2 _____ -41.6 ______28 cm Mar 18 - Apr 18 _____15.2 Jul__5.5 Jul _____ Sep 22 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ANALYSIS: The 1970s began with some very cold years, 1972 to 1974 failed to warm beyond about 12 C and had warmest months (always July in this decade) below 5.0. This reversed to some extent in the later 1970s with some rather warm readings. The winters were generally a bit colder than previous decades, and reached new minima in 1972 and again in 1979 (-55.3) during a widespread very cold month in eastern North America. To the end of this decade there is no sign of any warming trend overall but a few years began to display signs of it. Similar to Cambridge Bay, winter 1974-75 had an anomalous early winter snow depth peak in November 1974. This pulled back the average duration which otherwise would have run from early April to early May on average. The decade had somewhat heavier snow cover than previously. The winter of 1977-78 had particularly heavy snow cover for this location. It had reached its usual late winter depth before the end of 1977 and continued to accumulate with small snowfalls in the heart of the winter season. Some mid-winter periods have no measurable snow and changes can only occur through wind redistribution, which is unusual due to prolonged anticyclonic intervals and rather calm conditions. Stronger winds occur in summer as different surfaces are heated and sometimes gusts over 100 km/hr occur in dry weather in July. We are now in a position to set the 1951-80 "normal" based on those years from previous post and this one. Data from 1948 to 1950 are not included in these. 1951-80 _____ -50.4 __ -40.0 ____ 24 cm Mar 19 - May 2 _____ 15.5 ___ 5.5 _____ Sep 25 The trends within this 30-year interval are faint, but slightly towards a colder regime with more snow and earlier winter onset. Frequencies of coldest and warmest (0.5 for ties) -- these data include 1948, 49 and 50. Coldest Days ___ 2.5 Dec, 8.5 Jan, 13.0 Feb, 9.0 Mar ______ Warmest Days __ 4 Jun __ 23 Jul __ 6 Aug Coldest Months _ 5 Dec _ 6 Jan _ 12 Feb _ 10 Mar _________Warmest Months _______ 30.5 Jul _ 2.5 Aug Now we can start to track how that changed, if at all, from 1981 to the present time. ============================================= 1981 _____ -46.3 Feb __ -37.7 Mar __ 13 cm Apr 14-20 _____ 17.2 Jun __ 5.9 Jul _____Sep 27 1982 _____ -47.9 Mar __ -39.0 Feb __ 18 cm Apr 19-27 _____ 14.2 Jul __ 5.1 Jul _____ Sep 24 1983 _____ -50.2 Feb __ -37.8 Feb __ 19 cm Apr 10-12 _____ 13.6 Jul __ 5.7 Jul _____ Oct 4 1984 _____ -51.3 Mar __ -44.1 Feb __ 20 cm Feb 4-12 ______ 15.2 Jul __ 5.3 Jul _____ Sep 28 1985 _____ -49.8 Mar __ -41.5 Feb __ 38 cm Apr 19-24 _____ 14.5 Jul __ 6.6 Jul _____ Oct 1 1986 _____ -50.7 Jan __ -41.8 Mar __ 22 cm Apr 9 - May 1 __ 11.3 Jul __ 4.3 Jul _____ Sep 21 1987 _____ -55.3 Feb __ -45.2 Feb __ 22 cm Jan 29-Feb 2 __ 16.6 Jun __ 6.0 Jul _____ Sep 26 1988 _____ -52.6 Jan __ -39.3 Jan __ 15 cm Feb 20-Mar 10__ 17.5 Jul __ 7.3 Jul _____ Oct 6 1989 _____ -52.4 Jan __ -42.5 Jan __ 22 cm Mar 5 - 9 ______ 11.9 Jul __ 4.2 Jul _____ Sep 28 1990 _____ -51.5 Jan __ -40.8 Feb __ 26 cm May 9-15 ______15.7 Jun__ 5.6 Jul _____ Oct 1 mean _____-50.8 _____ -41.0 ______ 22 cm Mar 27-Apr 5 ___14.8 _____ 5.6 Jul _____ Sep 29 ------------------------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS: In general terms, there was not much change from the previous 30-year averages in the 1980s to 1990 -- but the onset of -20 C temperatures came a few days later with 1988 in particular having some difficulty settling into the winter chill. Note: An unusual incursion of milder air on very strong northwest winds (gusting to 100 km/hr) took place on Jan. 24th 1982. Temperatures peaked at -9.6 C. In most winters readings higher than -20 are rare. No precip was noted within weeks of this date, except for trace amounts of snow which could have been just blowing snow. Very strong southerly winds occurred and some light snow fell earlier in the month (9th). This was during an unusually cold outbreak in eastern North America. Then in Oct 1984, an unusual mild spell (near freezing) and heavy snow led to a 27 cm cover by Oct 14th (normal is about 5-10 cm). After increasing to 28 cm in mid-November, this pack continued to grow incrementally to 35 cm in late March and 38 cm in late April, with consistently very cold temperatures all through the period. April 1985 was particularly cold relative to normal values (mean -30.9). This perhaps shows us how a slight increase in the snow pack can really anchor colder air masses in these arctic source regions. Despite rather mild temperatures after mid-May, the snow pack melted off rather slowly and only disappeared finally by about June 28th (1985), about two weeks later than most years. It gave me the impression that a 60-80 cm snow pack might manage to last through an entire summer at that location, if the climate ever shifted in such a way as to produce that much snow. (Normally late June and all of July are snow free with 5-15 mm rainfalls, and then snow begins to fall again in August). ------------------------------------------------------------------- YEAR ___ Min temp _ coldest mo __ Max snow depth ____ Max temp _ warmest mo_ first -20 C 1991 ____ -50.7 Jan _ -40.1 Jan ___ 20 cm Apr 30-May 4 _ 16.1 Jul __ 6.4** Jul ___ Sept 29 1992 ____ -49.1 Jan _ -40.6 Jan ___ 21 cm Mar 21-Apr 8 __15.1 Jul __ 5.2 Jul ______ Oct 3 1993 ____ -48.9 Mar _ -36.6 Mar ___20 cm May 12 - 15 ___16.7 Jul __ 7.3 Jul _____ Sept 28 1994 ____ -49.9 Mar _ -37.6 Mar ___08 cm Apr 22-May 9 _ 17.6 Jul __ 5.6 Jul _____ Oct 2 1995 ____ -52.0 Mar _ -39.2 Mar ___10 cm Mar 14-Apr 8 __18.6 Jul __ 7.3 Jul ______ Oct 3 1996 ____ -48.7 Feb _ -38.2 Mar ___16 cm Nov 27-28 ^ ___12.0 Jul __ 4.1 Jul ______ Sept 14 1997 ____ -49.7 Feb _ -41.0 Feb ___19 cm Jan 15-29 _____ 15.6 Jun __ 5.6 Jul _____ Sept 23 1998 ____ -47.6 J F __-39.2 Jan ___ 19 cm May 18 _______ 17.8 Jul ___ 6.9 Jul ______ Oct 11* 1999 ____ -46.6 J M __-38.8 Jan ___ 21 cm May 14-15 ___ 16.5 Aug __ 7.0 Jul ______ Oct 3 2000 ____ -50.2 Jan _ -41.4 Dec ___ 13 cm Apr 14-May 16_ 19.6 Jul __ 6.2 Jul _____ Sept 28 mean ____ -49.3 ____ -39.3 _______ 17 cm Mar 28-Apr 9 ___ 16.6 ______ 6.2 Jul _____ Sept 29 _________________________________________________________ Notes: * September 1998 was much above normal in temperatures. There were few days even reaching -5 C and this milder trend continued for the first ten days of October. A more normal temperature regime was not reached before about late November although the entire winter season was relatively mild for the location, except for a near normal January of 1999. This was also a strong El Nino year and the warmest year on record at Toronto. ** Unfortunately the station reported no data from July 21 to 31 then resumed operation on August 1st. The 6.4 could have ended up between 5 and 8 given the normal range of temperatures in late July. Also the annual max of 16.1 could have been superseded. The first week of August 1991 was relatively mild there, so my guess is that the warmth of mid-July probably continued and the actual monthly mean might have been closer to 7.0. ^ This early peak snow depth was almost matched by 15 cm reported at times in March, April and May. There was unusually heavy snow in June 1996, 8.2 cm fell on June 9-10 at a time when the winter snow pack (not very large at any point) had mostly melted away. Another 3 cm fell on June 25. It is rare to see near-freezing (all day) temperatures and snowfall that late into June or at any point in July. But after a notably cold July there was more snow on July 23 and 27 (2-3 cm falls in each case). August continued with the colder than normal theme with a mean of only 1.0 (some milder Augusts are in the 3-5 range). There was a fall of 7.6 cm snow on August 20th which is also unusual as many Augusts see only small or trace amounts. This cover only lasted one day. Then the -20 C season began about two weeks earlier than most years. ANALYSIS While the decade of the 1990s to 2000 produced some variations, the background theme was slight warming. A new maximum of 19.6 was reached on July 29th, 2000, but the warmest month in the data set so far remained 7.5 in July 1962 (partially missing July 1991 may have been close to that and two more 7.3 values were added to the one produced in July 1988. Snow depth continued its slow decline, with winters of 1993-94 and 1994-95 particularly sparse (both maxed out at 8-10 cm). The timing of maximum snow depth changed only slightly from earlier averages and that was largely due to two anomalously early peaks, one in November 1995 and the next one in the following winter in January 1997. The onset of the -20 C season drifted back to near the end of September and on one occasion was two weeks late in arriving (Oct 1998). ================================================================= YEAR ___ Min temp _ coldest mo __ Max snow depth ____ Max temp _ warmest mo_ first -20 C 2001 ____ -51.2 Feb __ -37.1 Feb __ 15 cm (two int) ** ___ 15.0 Jul __ 5.5 Jul _____Sept 24 ^ 2002 ____ -48.4 Feb __ -40.6 Feb __ 21 cm Apr 30-May 5 _13.8 Jul __ 5.5 Aug ____ Oct 2 2003 ____ -46.1 Feb __ -38.1 Mar __ 20 cm Feb 7-15 ____ 20.0 Jul __ 7.6 Jul _____ Oct 4 2004 ____ -49.5 Mar __ -39.3 Mar __ 14 cm Apr 13-25 ____11.5 Jul __ 4.5 Jul _____ Sept 23 2005 ____ -50.2 Mar __ -36.0 Jan __ 29 cm Apr 16-17 ____ 15.2 Aug__7.2 Jul _____Oct 1 2006 ____ -46.8 Mar __ -35.5 Feb __20 cm^^Nov 30-Dec 1_15.3 Jul __ 6.4 Jul _____ Oct 5 2007 ____ -49.7 Mar __ -39.4 Mar __ 16 cm Apr 16-May 1 _ 20.7 Jul __ 7.9 Jul _____ Oct 3 2008 ____ -49.7 Mar __ -41.0 Jan __ 17 cm Feb 3 ________18.6 Jul __ 7.1 Jul _____ Oct 6 2009 ____ -50.1 Feb __ -38.6 F M __ 19 cm May 19-24 ___ 20.9 Jul __ 8.0 Jul _____ Oct 6 2010 ____ -45.4 Jan __ -34,7 Jan __ 30 cm Apr 23***_____ 18.5 Jun __ 6.7 Jul _____ Oct 2 mean ____ -48.7 _____ -38.0 ______20 cm Mar 20-Apr 1 __17.0 _____ 6.5 (Jul) ____ Oct 2 ____________________________ ** In 2001, two intervals had 15 cm snow cover, March 5-15 and May 6-16. The stats are averaged into the data means by duration of March 5 to May 16. ^ Rather like 1998, most of September was very mild and this early -20 was followed by more mild weather than is usually the case once -20 has been reached. The days from Sept 27th to October 4th were close to freezing at times and some snow melted. Another restart of the -20 C season occurred on October 10th without a return to mild conditions. ^^ An unusually heavy snowfall (10.8 cm on Nov 29, 2005) led to a temporary peak in snow depth of 20 cms. This settled to the 10-15 cm range within a week. Another maximum of 19 cms persisted through large parts of March and April but never broke the brief 20 cm earlier in the winter. *** April 2010 was very different from most Aprils (which tend to be quite dry with stable snow packs near seasonal maximum). There was a total of 19 cms snow and some very mild temperatures in the -5 to -10 C range mid-month. The snow pack built up to its maximum then gradually settled back to 25 cm. One more snowfall brought it back to 29 cm on May 12th and that settled to 20-25 cm for a few weeks before it gradually melted in June. note Feb 2006 may have been closer to -36 as one day of data missing and days on either side were cold. ------------------ ANALYSIS (2001-2010) ... This decade continued a very slight temperature increase trend, adding about 1 C to the means of the previous decade in winter and less than 0.5 deg in summer. There was more variability perhaps, and some of the summers were notably warm, in particular 2009. The onset of winter (first -20 C) was further delayed to early October. There were several more episodes of very mild conditions in September and/or October, including the autumn of 2006. Snow pack maximum depths improved slightly over the minimum reached the previous decade, but began to show more of a bimodal tendency in this decade with several occasions of one "autumn" or early winter peak and a second similar spring or late winter peak. There was a noted tendency for snow depths to deflate after unusual mid-season snowfalls, possibly indicating greater water content in the snow than one might expect in this arctic desert climate. We can now compare the 1981-2010 averages to the 1951-1980 averages previously calculated. 1951-80 _____ -50.4 __ -40.0 ____ 24 cm Mar 19 - May 2 _____ 15.5 ___ 5.5 _____ Sep 25 1981-2010 ___ -49.6 __ -39.4 ____ 22 cm Mar 25 - Apr 5 _____ 16.1 ___ 6.1 _____ Sep 30 The frequency of various extremes compares to the first set as follows ... 1948-80 ___ Winter min _______________ 1981-2010 ___ Winter min __________ Total (63 winters) __ 2.5 Dec, 8.5 Jan, 13.0 Feb, 9.0 Mar __ 0.0 Dec, 9.0 Jan, 9.5 Feb, 11.5 Mar _ 2.5 Dec, 17.5 Jan, 22.5 Feb, 20.5 Mar 1948-80 ___ Coldest month ____________ 1981-2010 ___ Coldest month ________Total (63 winters) __ 5 Dec _ 6 Jan _ 12 Feb _ 10 Mar ______ 1.0 Dec, 9.0 Jan, 10.5 Feb, 9.5 Mar ___ 6.0 Dec, 15.0 Jan, 22.5 Feb, 19.5 Mar 1948-80 ___ Summer max ______________ 1981-2010 __ Summer max _________ Total (63 summers) ____ 4 Jun ___ 23 Jul ___ 6 Aug _________ 5 Jun __ 23 Jul __ 2 Aug ___________ 9 Jun __ 46 Jul __ 8 Aug 1948-80 ___ Warmest Months __________ 1981-2010 __ Warmest Months ______ Total (63 summers) ____ 0.0 Jun ___ 30.5 Jul ___ 2.5 Aug _____ 0 Jun ___ 29 Jul ___ 1 Aug _________ 0 Jun __ 59.5 Jul __ 3.5 Aug There have not been large shifts in these distributions, the coldest part of winter continues to be mid-January to early March, and the warmest part of summer late June to early August. The years that have their warmest day outside of July usually hit a day within a week of July, mid-June to mid-August is the extreme range (compared to mid-May to late September in southern Canada). ==================================================== (2011-2020 stats) YEAR ___ Min temp _ coldest mo __ Max snow depth ___ Max temp _ warmest mo_ first -20 C 2011 ____ -49.5 Feb __ -38.8 Feb __ 34 cm Jan 2 - 3 ____ 20.0 Jul __ 9.8 Jul _____ Sept 28 2012 ____ -50.4 Mar __ -37.2 Mar __ 30 cm Apr 2 -11 ____ 17.9 Jul __ 8.7 Jul _____ Oct 8 2013 ____ -51.5 Mar __ -42.3 Feb __ 20 cm Mar 27-Apr 6__12.8 Jul __4.5 Jul _____ Oct 4 2014 ____ -50.4 Feb __ -39.1 Feb __ 29 cm Mar 23-Apr 3__14.6 Aug__5.9 Jul _____ Oct 3 2015 ____ -49.2 Feb __ -36.9 Mar __ 12 cm Jan 23-25 ____20.2 Jul __ 9.6 Jul ____ Sept 28 2016 ____ -47.8 Dec __ -37.4 Dec __ 15 cm Apr 6-May 17_ 18.1 Jul __ 8.2*Jul _____ Oct 9 2017 ____ -50.7 Mar __ -34.8 Mar __ 22 cm May 24 ______13.8 Jul __ 5.5 Jul _____ Sept 26 2018 ____ -46.3 Mar __ -38.0 Mar __ 14 cm May 9-10 ____ 14.5 Jun __4.5^Jul ____ Oct 1 2019 ____ -46.5 Mar __ -36.5 Feb __ 26 cm Jan 1*** _____ 19.0 Jul __ 9.7^Jul ____ Oct 17 2020 ____ -49.1 Mar9__-39.7 Jan ___ 9 cm Apr 5 _________ 19.5 Jul _ 10.0 Jul ____ Oct 8 mean ____ -49.2 ______ -38.1 _______ 20 cm Mar 17 - 24 ___ 17.1 ______ 7.7 Jul _____ Oct 5 2021 ____ -48.0 Feb 21_ -35.0 Feb _ 17 cm (sev'l Jan-Feb) __13.7 Jun _ 5.4 Jul ____ Oct 15 2022 ____ -47.5 Feb 5 __ -38.0 Feb _ 29 cm (late Oct-early Jan)*_19.2 Jul _ 6.7 Jul ___ Oct 2 2023 ____ -49.2 Jan 12 __ -36.8 Feb _ 12 cm (21 Jan) _______ 19.7 Jul _ 8.0^ Jul ___ Oct 9 ( to Dec 10 2023) *snow cover of 27-29 cm fairly continuous late October to Jan 5, then it suddenly changes to 14 cm on Jan 6 and stays in that range rest of winter, slowly reducing to zero by June 7. Not sure if that change reflects a windstorm blowing snow away, or a change in observer with different habits, cannot be melt as temps well below -30 C. Once gone, it never returned to any similar values. note: a very unusual high of -3.8 C on Dec 23 2021, between two long cold spells. This site has rather complete data compared to YCB and YRB. The coldest month in Feb 2022 was based on complete data. ^ July 2023 table value 8.2 C but 30-31 missing data, from hourlies available, est 4 C and 6 C dropping mean to 8.0. _____________________________________________________________ * Some temp data missing July 1-2 2016, mins are shown but not maxes, looked colder than the monthly mean of 8.4 so that is reduced here to 8.2 (est 3.5 1-2). ^ Some temp data missing July 1-3, mins are available, and this time it looked a bit milder than the cold monthly mean of 4.3 so I adjusted up to 4.5 (Aug was complete and also 4.3). ^ Also the next July has three missing days 20-22 July, these may have been fairly warm as per Eureka (A) which is inlan (opened later in the study period) and runs a bit warmer in warm summer spells (probably a sea breeze effect closer to the fjord where Eureka climate station sits). I raised this data from 9.4 as reported to 9.7. There is some chance that the 19.0 max was broken then also (but the airport station while warmer than 19 in the missing days had its max on the same day as the 19.0). Considering the location and length of data period, I was fairly pleased with the continuity of data in general; as with other studies I am doing, the most recent years have more frequent missing days. Not sure if this is due to insufficient time for quality control to work through the data sets, or some kind of staffing issue that is getting worse with time, but it seems to affect a lot of different Canadian data sets. *** This is the only example I saw in all data of a large one-day shift in snow depth that might be attributable to winds. No measurable snow was reported, the depths on both the previous and next day were under 12 cm, but a moderate southeast wind was reported. The other explanation might be a coding or data entry error. If not for this 26 cm reading on New Years Day then the maximum snow depth occurred on March 28th (17 cms). _____________________________ ANALYSIS of 2011-20 data Although 2013 and 2014 were rather cold, this past nine years has seen mostly continuation of the slow warming trends of previous decades. There were at least three anomalously warm early winter periods (September into early October) in 2012, 2016 and 2019. This current winter 2019-20 started out rather feeble for cold, but converged on normal through December and has been quite cold in January (average was -39.7). The snow pack is currently very sparse, only 4 cm on the ground (updated on Feb 7th) but despite that it has been below -40 since the start of February and recently as cold as -48 C. (added later .. the season continued to record rather sparse snow cover and the summer was rather warm again at least in July, August was close to normal and in the past week as of 5 Sep the weather is close to freezing with no snow cover established yet.) ______________________________ SUMMARY of this study Eureka represents a climate very close to the Greenland (and lesser Ellesmere Island-Devon Island-Axel Heiberg Island) ice caps and appears to be receiving more frequent incursions of milder air masses in winter, although not to the extent that the climate is radically different from the mid-20th century. These incursions do not happen every winter, or if they do happen in a given winter, they might only take place in say November or March, and not several different times. This seems to be the main reason why both average and extreme winter temperatures are gradually moderating, but make no mistake, this is still a very harsh arctic climate with full expectation of seeing -45 C days and -35 C months, most likely from January to March. A few anomalous events were noted throughout but this is a very predictable climate with long stretches of similar weather at various times of year. The summers also appear to be warming very slightly, and the onset of them has moved generally from late June into mid-June. A typical summer will not end suddenly but will fade out through August with a return of some snow and freezing daytime temperatures by late August. This can sometimes be muted and delayed well into September in a persistent southerly air flow bringing in saturated air from the Davis Sea (west of Greenland) that has temperatures near 2 or 3 C and dew points near 1 C. A cold drizzle falls from low clouds in this air flow, and it probably deposits wet snow on higher hills and the surrounding ice fields. The frequency of this sort of extended late summer appears to be rising in recent decades (from perhaps less than once a decade to 3-4 times now). Spring in most years seems to be a case where milder air masses slowly work their way into the region and sit over the decaying snow pack until it has all melted, then temperatures rise from around 5 C to 10-15 C with the bare ground exposed. But it does not appear that there is much of a shift in the weather itself after the melt is finished. Warmth depends mainly on hours of sunshine rather than any sort of air mass arrival. This is a precarious climate which could easily tilt to some other set of conditions, if for example winter snowfall increased in the region. It has seldom been much more than 30-40 cms in any recent winter. If for any reason heavier snow begins to fall more frequently, that could quite possibly stick around long enough to last through the brief summers. If on the other hand snow cover diminishes further, then summer could lengthen to something like late May to early September. Since Eureka is on a narrow inlet which is itself an extension of a relatively narrow channel between two large islands (Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg are roughly equivalent to Great Britain and Ireland in size) the oceanic influence (whether of open or frozen seas) is not large but it must play some role, so changes in ice cover might mean changes in precipitation. In what is almost a desert like rainfall profile, any increase would have significant effects on the environment. There seems little potential for precipitation to decrease at this location.

Here's another measurement of subarctic winter cold, the lowest temperature in each winter at Dawson, Yukon from the winter of 1898-99 to the present. Once again, will be maintaining this one going forward. In the table, years identify the winters by their Jan-Mar calendar months. They include the Nov-Dec of the previous year, The station is located near the Yukon-Alaska border about 64 deg N lat. (edit -- see more detailed information on station location and move of recording site Feb 1979 at bottom of the post) Coldest value of each decade in bold type. Decade __ 00 ___ 01 ___02 ___03 ___ 04 ___05 ___06 ___ 07 ___08 __09 ____ avg 1899 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ -42.8 1900-09 _-48.9_-55.6_-45.6_-51.7_-50.0_-46.1_-55.0_-50.6_-42.2_-53.9 __ -50.0 1910-19 _-47.8_-52.2_-52.2_-52.2_-46.7_-38.3_-50.0_-50.6_-52.8_-45.0 __ -48.8 1920-29 _-50.0_-47.2_-47.2_-44.4_-47.8_-52.2_-39.4_-43.3_-46.7_-46.1 __ -46.4 1930-39 _-49.4_-43.3_-52.2_-52.8_-54.4_-48.9_-51.2_-47.8_-47.8_-48.3 __ -49.6 1940-49 _-45.6_-44.4_-46.7_-48.9_-42.2_-41.7_-40.0_-58.3_-43.3_-50.0 __ -46.1 1950-59 _-51.2_-51.2_-54.4_-48.3_-47.8_-49.4_-50.0_-50.6_-43.3_-53.3 __ -49.9 1960-69 _-45.6_-43.9_-54.4_-52.8_-48.3_-54.4_-50.6_-51.7_-54.4_-51.2 __ -50.7 1970-79 _-48.9_-56.2_-52.8_-52.2_-48.9_-52.8_-52.2_-40.0_-48.9*_-55.8__ -50.9 1980-89 _-53.8_-51.8_-50.2_-51.4_-49.9_-49.6_-43.5_-46.3_-43.5_-51.2 __ -49.1 1990-99 _-52.2_-47.8_-42.4_-50.2_-50.3_-45.1_-50.0_-52.0_-47.5_-48.0 __ -48,5 2000-09 _-47.5_-42.5_-42.0_-42.0_-48.5_-50.5_-45.5_-48.7_-51.3_-50.3 __ -46.9 2010-19 _-46.0_-47.4_-46.2_-50.3_-46.7_-47.1_-35.9_-42.6_-44.9_-44.3 __ -45.1 2020 ___ -47.7 _ -46.2_-49.8_-47.2 (complete through winter 2022-2023) * Jan 1978 old and new stations both reporting data, the new location (CYDA) supplies the data from Feb 1979 and thereafter. The minimum at CYDA for the same month was -51.0. See note at bottom of the post. About half of winters have this minimum in January with a strong peak of dates in the mid-month interval. The list below shows which winters had a minimum in another month: It is possible for temperatures to fall as low as -40 C from about 7th November to early April although such readings are rare outside the span of late November to early March. With ties counting 0.5, in 102 winters to date, the minimum has occurred 2.5 times in NOV, JAN 53 (56 cases, six tied with DEC or FEB), DEC 22 (24 cases, 4 ties with JAN), FEB 24.5 (26 cases, 2 tied with JAN, 1 with NOV) and MAR counts zero but has had six near misses. APR 1944 had a reading cold enough to be a winter minimum in the least extreme cases. NOV _ 30th (1930, mild through the winter, second cold spell mid-March 1931 reached -41.6). __ 15th-16th (1945-46) tied with 10th Feb 1946 _ 21st (1986-87) DEC _ 31st (1901-02)* _ 25th (1917-18) _ 15th (1918-19) _ Dec 6 (1925)^^ _ Dec 28 (1927-28) ____ 31st (1929-30)* _ 21st-22nd (1936-37) _ 8th (1941-42) _ 29,30,31 (1944-45) _ ____ 7th-8th (1948-49) _ 31st (1949)* _ 29th-30th (1954-55) _ 12th (1956-57) also -50.0 Feb 12 1957. ____ 30th (1961-62) .. Jan 27th, 1962 almost as cold (-53.9) _ 11th (1966-67) _ 10th (1975-76) ____ 5th-6th (1976-77) _ generally a milder than average winter _ 5th, 9th (1977-78) _ 28th (1980-81) ____ 4th-5th (1990-91) _ 4th (1991-92) _ 1st (1994-95) __ 31st (1999-2000)* _ 17th (2000-01) ____ 25th (2015-16) _ a very mild January followed, Feb somewhat colder FEB _ 4th (1908), 2nd (1910)** _ 17th (1915)^ _ 1st (1917) by 0.6 _ 6th (1921) _ 10th (1922) ____ 23rd (1932) _ 8th-9th (1939) _ 7th (1943) _ 10th (1946) tied with Nov 15, 16 1945. ____ 3rd (1947) in this extreme spell, -63 C at nearby Snag was the all-time North American low. .. ______ Jan 1947 averaged -31.6 and had fallen to -52.8. There was also a reading of -51.7 on 13-14 Dec 1946. ____ 16th (1948) _ 17th (1954) -- tied with 28th Jan, corrupted data for most of Jan, not certain a lower value ______ did not exist. __ 9th (1958) _ 21st, 22nd (1961) _ 5th (1963) _ 3rd (1968) _ 11th (1979) ______ 12th (1985) _ 18th (1986) _ 4th (1993) _18th (2003) _ 23rd (2007) _ 12th (2014) __ 6th, 7th (2015) ______ 7th (2018) _ MAR _Mar 1908 (-41.1) came within 1.1 of the February minimum. _____ Mar 2 1956 was -47.8, within 2.2 of the January 1956 min. _____ Mar 7th 1961 (-43.3) was within 0.6 of the February 1961 min. _____ Mar 5th 1987 (-45.2) was colder than any days Dec 1986 to Feb 1987 but not Nov 1986. _____ Mar 13th 2003 (-41.5) was within 0.5 of coldest day Feb 18th 2003. _____ Mar 2nd 2007 (-47.5) was within 1.2 of coldest day Feb 23rd 2007. APR _ (In 1944 the Jan min of -42.2 was almost broken on April 3 -40.6). * tied coldest Dec 31 1901 and Jan 1 1902 and also Dec 31 1929 and Jan 1 1930 (Feb 15 within 0.5). A third similar event was Dec 31 1949 and Jan 1 1950 (followed by record cold throughout western Canada). Then Dec 31, 1999, tied with three days in January 2000 for coldest of that winter. ** tied coldest Feb 2 1910 with Jan 10, 11, 1910. ^ a much milder Jan 1915 than most, -31.3 the lowest temp, both Dec 1914 and Feb 1915 colder. ^^ another very mild Jan 1926 with another colder spell late Feb 28 (-38.9) within 0.5 of the Dec 6 minimum. ___________________________________________________________________________________ LOCATION INFO: The town of Dawson (pop 1500) is located at the confluence of the Yukon and Klondike rivers. The first recording site (1898-1902) has a lat-long which places it 10 km east of Dawson and 1 km north of the Klondike highway running east-west at that point. I suspect this was an approximation since there is no sign of human activity there (it is north of the river, all human activity is to the south). The elevation is given as 320m asl. By 1902, the station was either relocated or better identified at a position which is 1 to 2 km east of Dawson near the current baseball diamond and recreation hut (same elevation). The area is flat with a glacial moraine type hill to its north. In 1978 a weather station was opened at the airport (CYDA) located about 20 km east of this first site, beside the same (and only access) highway at 370m asl. After Jan 1979 the longer-reporting location ceased reporting but we have overlap for one full winter and parts of a second one. This overlap shows that the airport location is 1 to 2 deg colder on average in colder months, including on coldest nights. For the winter of 1977-78 the average temperature difference was zero, but one mild month (Feb 78) was 2 deg milder while the other two were each one degree colder at the airport. The three monthly extremes were all colder at the airport by 0.9, 2.1 and 0.3 deg. There was a difference of one degree in Jan 1979 (but the extreme comes from a very cold Feb 1979 with only the airport reporting at that point). I have drawn the conclusion that the colder half of the data 1979 to 2019 may be 1 to 2 deg colder than a comparative sample of that colder half 1899 to 1978, but that the milder half the data may be more equally comparable. ============================================================================== ANALYSIS of the data series Briefly, the analysis shows that there have been three milder intervals, one lasting approximately 1919-31, another from 1940-46, and then generally speaking since about 2001 to present with 2008 and 2009 somewhat colder to produce 2001-07 and 2010-19. (This is the winter of 2020 in the same time scale, and so far it seems on course to get back to somewhat colder values). Within each mild spell there appears to be one to three particular winter(s) that were exceptionally mild and therefore likely dominated by Pacific air masses due to ridge development near 130W, and these were the winters of 1926, 1944-46, 2002-03 and 2016. The winter of 1975-76 was also quite mild but fell within a generally cold interval. The coldest five-winter average and ten-winter average would identify the interval 1965 to 1975 as the coldest part of the data series although it was just about at the same level in the decade of 1900-09 and in the mid-1930s and 1950s. The early 1980s remained very cold, then warming seemed to begin, however it backed off during the 1990s (albeit the data should be reduced by 1-2 deg for direct comparison to decades before 1980). A note to any researchers thinking of using Dawson data: some of the very early cold interval reports have only daily minima during extreme cold spells (because presumably going outside once a day was more than enough for the recorder) and so the averages which are still tabulated anyway are incorrect for these months as only the non-extreme cold days have a maximum reported. This practice seemed to fade out of the data after 1910. Also, the winter of 1953-54 have some evidently incorrect data, for one thing, only minima are reported, but a good number of the January minima seem to be entirely erroneous (numbers well above 0 interspersed with more authentic looking numbers) while Feb 1954 has what appears to be correct minima. I would suggest some additional quality control might be needed for January 1954 data from the station.

This is where things stood in the Resolute (Bay, they dropped that part of the name but it is still on Resolute Bay) YRB analysis ... after 43 years with the same years analyzed for YCB ... means _ 345 _ 453 _32/116_ 31/138 _ 204 _ 208 __ --7_ 43 __ 137 __ 216 _ 220 _ 289 _YCB __ 348 _ 450 __ xxxx _ 40/126 _ 161 _ 175 __ --7 _ 82 __ 211 __ 238 _ 241 _ 291 cumulative 1948 to 1990 means _ 351 _ 460 __33/135_36/139 _ 193 _ 207 ___ 0 _ 43 __ 135 __ 217 _ 226 _ 284 _YCB __ 359 _ 464 __36/128_36/131 _ 164 _ 179 __ --8 _ 81 __ 203 __ 236 _ 247 _ 290 ________________________________________________________ 1991-2000 data YEAR ___ 01 __ 02 ___ 03a __ 03b ___ 04 __ 05 ___ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 __ 10 __ 11 1991 __ 353J_ 468J_ 35/-2a_17/135 _211a_211a__--2 _ 51J _ 158J _ 218 _ 223 _ 291 1992 __ 343J_ 428J_ ---- _ 29/151 _ 198 _ 213 _ +14 _ 37J _ 119 J _ 214 _ 215 _ 297 1993 __ 336J_ 436J_ --- _ 20/132b_ 165b_204 __ --7 _ 39J _ 158J _ 216 _ 217 _ 297 1994 __ 337M_ 489M_ --- _ 25/ 89 _ 209 _ 209 _--13 _ 41J _ 148J _ 214 _ 232 _ 285 1995 __333F*_ 451J*_ ---- _ 54/ 90 _ 206 _ 206 _--13 _ 44J _ 127 J _ 221_ 221 _ 284 1996 __330J_451J_(22/-16)_22/ 60 _ 211_ 212 __ --9 _ 35J _ 126 J _ 214 _ 214 _ 281 1997 __ 356F_ 462F_ ---- _ 34/138 _ 209c_ 211 __ --2 _ 37J _ 132J _ 213 _ 216 _ 285 1998 __ 350F_ 443F_ ---- _ 18/131 _ 193 _ 193 __--17 _ 56J#_ 146J _ 214 _ 230 _ 287 1999 __ 330J_428J_30/-56_22/153 _ 199 _ 196 __ +2 _ 50J _ 148A^_ 226 _ 235 _ 289 2000 __ 336J _ 448J_ ---- _36/150 _ 195 _ 199 __ +4 _ 44J _ 169J _ 222 _ 222 _ 289 (note: 3a actual snow depth peak incl early cases, counts only the two cases that produce a greater snow depth -- a third case in brackets is not factored in -- this is in reference to the 31/ 88 entry. The other eight data points are the same as those in column 3b. So what this tells us is that the actual mean is 31 cms on day 88, but the later peak on average is 28 cms on day 123. ) means _ 341 _ 450 _31/ 88_ 28/123 _ 200 _ 205 __ --4_ 43 __ 143 __ 217 _ 223 _ 289 _YCB __ 332 _ 443 __ xxxx _ 42/133 _ 166 _ 173 __ --8 _ 94 __ 225 __ 240 _ 243 _ 295 cumulative 1948 to 2000 means _ 349 _ 458 __34/132_34/136 _ 194 _ 207 __--1 _ 43 __ 136 __ 217 _ 225 _ 285 _YCB __ 354 _ 460 __37/129_37/132 _ 165 _ 178 __ --8 _ 84 __ 207 __ 237 _ 246 _ 291 Notes: a__ The maximum snow depth for this winter (1990-91) was set on Dec 29, 1990 which is day -2 of the winter. A weak secondary maximum was set in mid-May. Then the summer of 1991 featured some rather warm conditions July 14-23, the last frost and snow before that interval came on July 4th (day 185). b__ Data for winter 1992-93 are sporadic, daily reports occur in clusters of 2-3 days about a week apart for most of the season. Therefore the peak snow depth could have been greater at some point than this report. Daily reports became more frequent through June and only two days (2nd and 25th) are missing from July. Still, there is some chance that the last snow was later than shown here (June 14th). Data are missing for Aug 2-3, so the first frost and snow dates could be 2 days earlier. About five days are missing from October and the first -20 C could have been earlier than shown, although most of the days that do appear before the 24th are quite mild. * __ Winter 1994-95 was uniformly cold with heavy snow pack that had already reached 45 cm in December and stayed close to 50 cm through Jan-Feb-Mar. These months all had minima of -45 but the January extreme was based on that one being -45.1 (the other three months had a -45). By the way, data had returned to being continuous daily by this point. Unusually mild and dry conditions prevailed in April and the snow pack slowly reduced to 40 cm. May turned somewhat colder than late April but snow continued to reduce slowly through the month. __ Winter 1995-96 had small snow packs in the 20-22 cm range for most of November through early May. The max dates shown are not very different from this entire period. c __ Brief warm spell 20-24 July, last snow before that was June 3rd (day 154). # __ 1998 had a longer than usual "summer" with June's mean temperature 3.8, July 5.8 and August 2.9 C. June 28 to July 4 and most of mid to late July were mild, as also August 10-12. __ Winter 1998-99 saw early buildups of snow pack that peaked on Nov 5th 1998 and after reducing later that month, never came within 10 cms of that same depth in the spring secondary maximum of May 1999. ^ __ The first ten days of August 1999 were probably milder than any other period in August to date, and continued the general sporadic warmth of July; even so, light frosts and snowfalls occurred between some July warm spells. Colder weather in late August prevented the month from being the warmest of the year. ANALYSIS (1991-2000) Winters at Resolute became slightly milder during this decade, by about 1 degree, keeping pace with warming at YCB. The coldest months were in January 6 of the ten winters, February 3 times and March once, bringing the cumulative frequency for 53 winters to December 1, January 16.5, February 27.5, and March 8. The daily coldest extremes were also dominated by January (7 cases, 2 in Feb and one in March), bringing the cumulative totals there to December 2, January 20.5, February 20, March 10.5. All of this suggests that winter is being forced back into its central time period, with fewer examples found of extremes at the edges of the season. However, this should not be overstated given that it routinely fell into the -40 to -45 range every winter in the decade (and sometimes a bit lower). The frost and snow parameters showed slight tendencies to a longer pause in the brief northern summer. However, more significant, the average snow depth fell by about 8 cms and there was a continued tendency for the bimodal distribution established in the 1980s to continue. To put it in easily visualized terms, snow was more often disappearing by mid-June instead of late June, and was slower to appear in stages in late August to early October (although once or twice there was a large autumn snow pack established). Summer changes were not as pronounced as at YCB, in fact, the warmest month matched the previous decade (4.3 C), while the extreme maximum advanced only a few tenths; at YCB these parameters increased by a full degree in this decade. Although summer's greatest warmth continued to be almost exclusively a July phenomenon, two cases of significant early August warmth appeared near the end of the decade. Finally, the onset of -20 C minimum temperatures continued to drift later into October and the difference between YRB and YCB remained similar, so both locations were seeing the full onset of winter about a week later (for YRB getting closer to the 20th of October and for YCB the last few days of October). This seems like a fairly obvious response to larger ice-free expanses in the regional oceans and seas. 2001-2010 data YEAR ___ 01 __ 02 __ 03a __ 03b ___ 04 ___ 05 ___ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 __ 10 __ 11 2001 __ 315J_ 418F_ ---- _ 30/129 _ 186 _ 210 __--4 _ 48J _ 128A _ 224 _ 225 _ 284 2002 __ 341F_ 450F_ --- _ 20/146 _ 208 _ 212 __ --4 _ 25J _ 112 J _ 213 _ 227 _ 302 2003 __ 344F_ 423F_ --- _ 15/151 _ 211 _ 212 ___ +3 _ 50J _ 151J _ 213 _ 222 _ 286 2004 __342M_449M_48/ 4a_ 8/105a_ 213_ 213 __ 0 _ 22Jb_ 86J _ 214 _ 214 _ 291 2005 __323D_430M_24/-40c_ 10/101 _ 163 _ 212 _--3_ 39J _129A _ 226_ 244 _ 284 2006 __303J _ 440M_ ---- _ 24/123 _ 205 _ 206 _ --14 _44J _155 J _ 230 _258 _304$ 2007 __ 342M_ 469M_ ---- _ 45/135 _ 150 _ 212 __ --4 _ 74J%_ 179J_ 213 _ 264 _ 288 2008 __ 353F_ 437F_32/ 2 _ 24/ 96 _ 201 _ 202 __--16 _ 53J _ 185J _ 223 _ 226 _ 290 2009 __ 319M_407M_ ---- _ 22/101 _ 187 _ 194 __ --7 __ 53J _ 149J _ 233 _ 233 _ 295 2010 __ 306J _ 412F_33/-3_ 21/137 _ 162 _ 205 __ +4 __ 54J _ 174J _ 215 _ 215 _ 299 means _ 329 _ 434 _29/ 79_ 22/122 _ 189 _ 208 __ --4_ 46 __ 145 __ 220 _ 233 _ 292 _YCB __ 329 _ 440 _40/126_ 40/126_ 172 _ 174 __ --6 _ 92 __ 214 __ 246 _ 260 _ 297 cumulative 1948 to 2010 means _ 346 _ 454 __35/128_32/134 _ 193 _ 207 __--2 _ 43 __ 138 __ 218 _ 227 _ 286 _YCB __ 350 _ 457 __37/129_37/131 _ 166 _ 177 __ --8 _ 85 __ 208 __ 238 _ 248 _ 292 Notes: a __ A deep snow pack built up during the last two months of 2003 and peaked at 48 cms in late December to Jan 4, 2004. After this, despite very cold weather, the reported snow depths slowly diminished all the way to the end of May. The secondary peak of 8 cm on April 15 is much below the average amount for early June in all years. b __ The summer of 2004 was very cold. The mean temperature was 0.7 C, June at -1.6, July at 2.2 and August at 1.6 C. c __ Heavy snow fell Nov 17-18 2004, 32 cm in two days, probably the heaviest fall at this location. The peak snow depth followed, then the rest of the winter saw gradual depletion, with a skimpy 10 cm in mid-April a very weak secondary peak. This was the second winter in a row following this previously unseen pattern. $ __ This very late entry (Oct 31, 2006) was consistent with a very mild period from late July to the end of October. While most of July was quite cold, a warm spell suddenly developed around July 28th, and persisted well into August. September had very little snow, and October ran about 10 degrees above normal temperatures, the mean for the month was -6.0 C. %__ The summer of 2007 was warmer than any other in the series. Mean temperatures were 1.3 June, 7.4 July and 4.9 August. The daily maximum of 17.9 on July 11 was also a record (which would be broken in July 2008 also on the 11th). The second half of July into early August was not as warm but it then turned very mild in mid-August again. Perhaps more significant, there was no measurable snow from May 31st to September 21st, a much longer snow free season than normal (although quite a few traces of snow here and there in that interval). Frosts just happened to fall at the season boundary but many days in July and August were frost-free. -------------------------------------------- -- -- -------------------------------------- ANALYSIS 2001-2010 Winters warmed up by about 1.5 degrees in this decade compared to the 1990s. They ran about 3 degrees milder than the base values for 1948-80. The coldest month occurred later on average with three cases in February and three in March. This brought the cumulative totals over 63 winters to December 2, January 19.5, February 30.5, and March 11. The daily coldest extremes were also dominated by February and March with five cases each, bringing the cumulative totals there to December 2, January 20.5, February 25, March 15.5. Peak snowfall was only 22 cms on average in the spring and this was becoming more frequently a secondary maximum, the overall average peak depth was 29 cms and sometimes this would occur in the months before New Years Day. The blended average date (day 79) is really a blend of two different peaks in Nov-Dec and Apr-May. The snow loss during May continued about the same as before although from a smaller base. These were similar trends to those observed at Cambridge Bay. Summers on average warmed slightly but this was a blend of a cold first half and warm second half of the decade. Both 2002 and 2004 were very cold, 2006 to 2010 generally warmer than the long term average by 2-3 degrees. Record highs were set in both 2007 and 2008. The summers began to lengthen into late June and the first half of August from their usual narrow July focus. More snow-free summer months were recorded. A frequency analysis for summer warm months and days will be constructed in the final six-year period analysis. Frost and snow free intervals began to expand too, the onset of winter snow moved back into late August by about ten days. Some years had very little snow until late September. The first -20 C minimum also shifted a few more days later into October. There were several years in this decade when -20 C onset was very close to the end of October, but so far this has avoided November (YCB has been that late twice). The onset dates are slowly converging at the two locations, moving one day closer each decade (while both get later in the season, so the rate of change at YCB is greater). ______________________________________ ______________________________________ Data for 2011-20 YEAR ___ 01 __ 02 __ 03a __ 03b __ 04 __ 05 __ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 __ 10 __ 11 2011 __ 322F_ 443J_ ---- _ 33/103 _ 175 _ 164 __--6 _ 88J*_ 187J*_ 230 _ 248 _ 290 2012 __ 326M_ 412F_ ---- _ 38/ 34 _ 206 _ 209 _ -10 _ 73J _ 201 J*_ 225 _ 224 _ 300 2013 __ 354F_ 474F_ --- _ 26/ 65 _ 208 _ 210 __ --8 _ 31J _ 116A _ 220 _ 228 _ 299 2014 __324J _421F_ ---- _ 23/153 _ 153_ 202 _ +12 _ 37J _ 105J _ 213 _ 214 _ 293 2015 __333F_413M_---- _ 17/121 _ 162 _ 167 __ --6_ 79J _169J _ 217 _ 253 _ 286 2016 __304F_403F_32/-87_28/129_ 202_ 196 __ --6 _ 58J _ 139J _ 215 _ 216 _ 293 2017 __311M_ 476M_ ---- _ 34/ 93 _ 196 _ 209 __ --9 _ 33J _ 115A _ 220 _ 220 _ 297 2018 __319F_ 437M _ ---- _ 32/118 _209 _ 212 __--12_ 19J _ 140J _ 213 _ 227 _ 287 2019 __317J_ 420J _ 29/-7_ 25/119 _174 _ 204 __ -15_ 55J _ 162J _ 232 _ 255 _ 300 2020 __324F_ 445M _ ---- _ 29/120* 191 _ 158 __ --7 _ 71J _ 199J _ 214 _ 216 _ 296 means _ 323 _ 434 _29/ 66 _ 28/105 _ 187 _ 192 __ --7_ 55 __ 154 __ 220 _ 230 _ 294 _YCB __ 325 _ 430 _36/127 _ 36/127 _ 158 _ 171 __ --7 _ 95 __ 213 __ 244 _ 252 _ 298 cumulative 1948 to 2020 means _ 342 _ 451 __34/125_32/130 _ 193 _ 205 __--3 _ 45 __ 140 __ 218 _ 227 _ 287 _YCB __ 346 _ 456 __37/128_37/130 _ 164 _ 177 __ --8 _ 87 __ 208 __ 238 _ 250 _ 293 Notes: * __ Summer 2011 was even warmer than any of the previous five. July at 8.8 and July 9th at 18.7 set new records. The summer means were 2.8 June, 8.8 July and 5.3 August. No snow fell from June 25th to Sept 4th. .... In late June and early July of 2012, even higher temperatures occurred, including 20.1 on July 2, 2012. The month from June 24th to July 23rd averaged close to 10 C. But no calendar month exceeded July 2011. * __ Max snow depth 2019-20 of 29 cm occurred numerous times separated by lower depths and date 120 is just an average of all these (March to May). ============================== Analysis (2011-2020) These past ten winters have seen similar averages to the decade 2001-10. YCB showed more tendency to warming than YRB in this interval. The coldest months at YRB continue to be frequently February or March. The cumulative frequency for the full period of the study to date is December 2, January 21.5, February 36.5, and March 13. (total 73) The daily coldest extremes were also dominated by February and March again, bringing the cumulative totals there to December 2, January 22.5, February 29, March 19.5. (total 73) The spring snowfall peak showed some resurgence after its long-term minimum in the previous decade. YCB in this recent nine winter period has seen less snow than in the previous decade, so trends are opposite in this element. However, at YRB, only 2014 had a peak well into the season, and two years were quite early (before March) while two others (2016,19) had a bimodal distribution. The snow and frost free seasons began earlier than before by about ten days (this basically means more frequent warm weather in July). The seasons ended about the same time they had in the previous full decade. And the -20 onset was just two days later on average. These are all similar trends to YCB for the six summers. Summers at both locations are warming although relative to the entire decade and not to the stronger warming 2006-10; that warming seemed to continue at YRB for two more years before settling back into the previous sort of dull mildness. The average for 2013-16 has been 5.1 for warmest month and 13.2 for warmest day. The averages for 2007 to 2012 were 6.6 and 18.0, clearly a much warmer interval. Then 2018 produced one of the coldest summers on record with the warmest month only 1.9 C (July). 2020 had a much warmer reading at 19.9 C. The frequency of warmest month and warmest day over the 69 summers in the period of study are: WARMEST MONTH ____ 1 June, 69 July, 3 August WARMEST DAY _______ 1 June, 58.5 July, 13.5 August ___________________________________________________ I am now updating the excel file with all YRB data and new graphs. This will be posted tomorrow when completed. Another post with further analysis of all these complex trends will appear some time later this week. Also, I will post new data into the 2017 (and perhaps a few more years) portion of the table above, when various things are settled moving forward. ______________________________________________________ 2021 data so far ... coldest month -30.1 March, coldest day -42.6 Feb (some missing data however) max snow pack of winter season 26 cm Nov 25, 28 ... variable 17-22 cm after that, spring peak 19 cm Apr 29-30 last measurable snow June 2nd (several traces through July) change in snow pack May -10 cm last frost before end of July on July 21 but several missing days later could have had frosts. warmest month 2.7 July, 3.0 Aug, both with missing days, rather hard to determine highest max reported was 13.0 in August, once again could have been higher in July or August with so many missing days. First frost Aug 16 or earlier (missing data), first snow Aug 19 or earlier. First -20 C reading autumn 2021 was 31 Oct. (further data for late 2021 and 2022 added 14 Sep 2022) ... Winter snow appeared to be rather light, the deepest snow depths only 15 cm from incomplete data occurred around mid-March. There was not enough data to estimate changes in May snowfalls but it stayed below -5 C almost to the end of the month so it could be assumed that snow present in late April did not reduce very quickly. The coldest month was probably February. Most days had data and the missing days were in February, the mean was at least -32 C and possibly -33 or -34 (missing days were in colder spells). Also the lowest reading of -40.6 was in February but a colder reading is possible given the three missing days being near colder readings. Summer 2022 had last spring snow June 10 and earliest autumn snow Aug 19 (data not quite complete however). The last frost was on 4 July and the earliest in the current autumn was 9 Aug. The warmest month was 6.5 and the highest maximum 18.0 in July. There was excellent coverage with just one missing day in August which appeared to be a colder spell, so unlikely to change any of the above (August average was only about 3 C). The first half of September has seen persistent northeast winds and temperatures between -2 and +6 C on more or less a daily basis. This is fairly close to the long-term average. The first -20C reading was on 18 October. The first half of the winter (to end Dec) appears to be somewhat colder than normal, although reporting has some gaps. A minimum of -37 C so far, with very sparse snow cover in Nov-Dec (by late Dec 2022 only 3 cm). winter 2022-23: coldest month Feb -34.8 C, coldest day 21 Jan -41.9 C. max snow depth only 8 cm in early march, was reported 3-5 cm most of Apr-may. last frost 18 July, last snow on ground no reliable report but probably late June from temp reports. summer 2023: warmest month July 7.4 C, warmest day 29 July 18.8 C. first frost 2 Aug, first snow on ground tr late Aug, measurable 24 Sep first -20C reading 8 Nov 2023.

Resolute is located in the central arctic islands, on the southern shoreline of Cornwallis Island located to the west of larger Devon Island and northwest of Baffin Island (north of Somerset Island), and is roughly 700 kms northeast of YCB. It is located at 74.7 deg north, 95.0 deg west. The North Magnetic Pole was very close to this location around the 1950s and has since drifted almost 1500 kms away to the west-northwest. Weather records have been almost continuously maintained there since October 1st,19 1947. This gives us almost total overlap with the YCB series, especially for snowfall since YCB had several gaps between 1940 and 1947 in that element. So I will be updating this thread with a similar analysis of trends at Resolute. The climate there is somewhat more arctic in characteristics than Cambridge Bay. There is almost no influence from the southwest of warmer air masses in the summer; if it warms up at all at Resolute (and in many summers, it does not get much above 10 deg at best), this is a gradual heating of an in situ air mass over the east-central arctic and usually well correlated with anomalous warmth in Baffin Island and even Greenland. Instead of the faint appearance of a frost and snow free period, Resolute sees a greater mixing of summer precipitation to reach about a 3:1 preponderance of rain over snow, but there is no real snow-free season as such, although in warmer years there can be (the data will show this tendency). Winters at Resolute differ from Cambridge Bay mainly in the greater number of windy days and the more frequent intervals when milder air intrudes from the east to southeast. Strong low pressure systems often move west in the winter half year around the latitude of southern Baffin Island into northern Hudson Bay or the Foxe Basin. Temperatures there can rise as high as -5 to +2 C but Resolute tends to get a more modified warming to -15 or -10 C on most occasions, significant snow, and very rarely freezing drizzle or rain. Sometimes these storms produce winds of 80 km/hr sustained and 120 km/hr in gusts, and on one occasion in November 1965, wind gusts to 158 km/hr. However, these periods are not guaranteed to occur every winter, and when they don't, the climate becomes very similar to Cambridge Bay, with long settled periods of -30 to -40 C chill. The season of darkness is also a bit longer, from early November to early February and the days of continuous daylight run from late April to the first few days of August. Despite this, the sun dips low enough each "summer" day to allow for a diurnal range to take place, albeit often less than five degrees. The following data take us from 1948 to 1970. I will then add later decades as I did with Cambridge Bay. Each time I calculate averages for the same elements used at Cambridge Bay, I will show the differences and we can keep track of how the station to station differences are changing over time, if in fact they do change. The one thing that we won't require in this study will be notes on July dates for end of snowfall seasons -- it will be quite frequently the case that the seasons end and then start up again fairly close to the arbitrary boundary of July 31st - August 1st. The elements listed below (a reminder in summary form) are: 01 is coldest month (no neg signs, 0.1 deg C) and 02 is the lowest minimum of the winter. Letters indicate months. 03 is the greatest snow depth of the winter season. I will make a change here to show (a) the greatest snow depth with date and (b) the greatest snow depth after March 1st, thinking that there may be more than the one exception that we found with Cambridge Bay. Only 3 (b) will be useful in correlating with YCB. As with YCB it was necessary to estimate actual dates from 1948 to until daily snow depth was reported, before that it is just end of month snow depths from which one could derive daily estimates. In general, I don't think there is as much drifting of snow into this location from other parts of the landscape as it is a more rocky, hilly location and also the snow tends to be wetter and exposed to freeze-thaw cycles that might not promote much drifting (not to say there would not be prodigious drifting of snow away from the airport and townsite on the more exposed parts of the island and other nearby islands). (where no 3a entry, the 3b entry is the seasonal snow depth max). (zero or negative dates in 3a refer to previous year 0 being Dec 31, -30 being Dec 1, -60 Nov 1 etc). 04 and 05 are last snowfall and last frost dates with July 31st the end point. 06 shows the change in snow depth (in cms) during May, from April 30 to May 31. 07 and 08 show the summer extremes, monthly and daily, with months of occurrence. 09 and 10 show the first frost and snowfall dates from August 1st on, and 11 shows the date of the first -20 daily min. YEAR ___ 01 __ 02 ___ 03a ___ 03b __ 04 __ 05 ___ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 __ 10 __ 11 1947 ____ no data except last element _________________________________________ 277 (or in msg Sep) 1948 __ 377F_ 483M_ ---- _ 53/152 _ 169 _ 205 _+33 _ 51J _ 139J _ 218 _ 227 _ 290 1949 __ 369F_ 467F_ ---- _ 35/153^_ 203 _ 210 __ 0^ _ 45J _ 150A _ 220 _ 236 _ 276 1950 __ 369J_ 467F_ ---- _ 32/160 _ 170 _ 185 __ +2 _ 45J _ 122J _ 215 _ 222 _ 277 1951 __ 368F_ 467F_ ---- _ 23/152 _ 212 _ 212 __ +5 _ 48J _ 150J _ 213 _ 230 _ 285 1952 __ 337J_ 472J_ ---- _ 26/124 _ 205 _ 212 _ --23 _ 45J _ 156J _ 222 _ 226 _ 281 1953 __ 344J_467FM_ -- _ 34/122 _ 172 _ 211 __ --8 _ 35J _ 117J _ 213 _ 254 _ 282 1954 __ 338F_ 461J_ ---- _ 45/137 _ 167 _ 203 __ +5 _ 49J _ 161J _ 228 _ 259 _ 289 1955 __ 382F_ 494F_ ---- _ 38/130 _ 203 _ 212 __ --2 _ 28J __ 94J _ 214 _ 213 _ 293 1956 __ 364M_ 517M_--- _ 55/113 _ 206 _ 210 __ --2 _ 40J _ 144J _ 224 _ 223 _ 280 1957 __ 363J_ 456F_ ---- _ 33/138 _ 203 _ 207 __ --5 _ 55J _ 150J _ 215 _ 221 _ 286 1958 __ 354F_ 456F_ -a- _ 25/124 _ 154 _ 200 ___ 0 _ 60A _ 139A _ 236 _ 250 _ 283 1959 __ 347F_ 467J_ -b- __ 15/ 72 _160 _ 205 __ --3 _ 45J _ 111 J _ 213 _ 222 _ 274 1960 __ 341M_ 433J_ ---- _ 30/116 _ 160 _ 207 __ --2 _ 54J _ 150J _ 227 _ 245 _ 286 1961 __ 373M_ 467M_---- _ 56/123 _ 198 _ 211 _ --10 _ 40J _ 143J _ 220 _ 232 _ 284 1962 __ 352F_ 456J_ ---- _ 38/153 _ 182 _ 182 ___ 0 _ 76J _ 183J _ 223 _ 232 _ 281 1963 __ 346M_ 428M_ --- _ 36/156 _ 181 _ 211 __ +3 _ 44J _ 139J _ 214 _ 227 _ 281 1964 __ 347F_ 467J _ ---- _ 46/153 _ 213 _ 213 _ +10 _ 22A _ 89JA _ 214 _ 214 _ 277 1965 __ 324J_ 422F_ ---- _ 25/150 _ 211 _ 212 __ +3 _ 27J _ 133 J _ 213 _ 233 _ 272 1966 __ 375J_ 522J_ ---- _ 33/165 _ 200 _ 207 __ --3 _ 37J _ 122 J _ 223 _ 230 _ 283 1967 __ 364F_ 468F_ ---- _ 30/150 _ 196 _ 208 __ +5 _ 27J _ 100 J _ 213 _ 220 _ 289 1968 __360F_472M_66/-61#.53/151_ 182 _211 _ +18 _ 45J _ 122J _ 217 _ 214 _ 300 1969 __ 313M_414M_ ---- _ 38/ 76 _ 199 _ 210 __ +3 _ 35A _ 128A _ 216 _ 243 _ 288 1970 _ 316JF_467JF_ ---- _ 41/119 _ 208 _ 208 _--10 _ 48J _ 156 J _ 214 _ 226 _ 278 means _ 353 _ 465 _37/125_37/134_ 189 _ 207 _ +1 _ 44 __ 135 ___ 218 _ 230 _ 283 __YCB_ 366 _ 468 _ -- -- __ 37/134 _ 168 _ 181 _ -7 _ 82 __ 205 ___ 237 _ 250 _ 291 Notes: ^ The snow on ground at end of March and May 1949 reported as 33 cms, April zero, seems like a data omission zero rather than a measured zero as April was generally cold and dry. In any case, the maximum snow depth might have been marginally higher at any point in the three months but likely increased slightly from 4.6 cms that fell June 1-2 in rather mild conditions, so added 2 cms there (likely melting after that), and the difference is set at zero rather than the +33 that the raw data would indicate. No wind data for this early in the record to eliminate snow drifting as a potential reason. ___ 1953 and 1954 had no measurable snow in July or August. Nor did 1958 or 1960. ___ 1955 had an exceptionally cold summer, mean of --0.7 in June, 2.8 in July, 2.0 in August. (mean 1.4 C).5 cms of snow fell in July and 15 cms in August. This followed one of the colder winters (February was decidedly cold). a __ In winter 1957-58, an early sub-max was 23 cms on Dec 2 1957. Amounts were generally 18-23 cms from then to the peak of 25 cms in early May. ___ 1958 had a rather warm summer, July averaged 5.9 and August 6.0. There was no measurable snow after June 3. b __ In winter 1958-59, an early sub-max was 13 cms on 3rd of October 1958, amounts were much less than normal all winter peaking at only 15 cms in mid-March. ___ 1961 had heavy snow pack built up in Nov-Dec 1960 that stayed in the 40-55 cm range and had not totally melted until July 3rd. ___ 1962 had a very warm July, it was particularly warm 15th to 23rd and hit 18.3 (65F) on 18th and 21st. ___ 1964 had an even colder summer than 1955, means for the three months were -1.1, 1.2 and 2.2 (overall mean of only 0.8). The highest reading was 8.9 C (48 F). Frost and snow were frequent even at the end of July, into early August so there was no real snow or frost free season. ___ 1965 also had a cold summer, means were -2.8, 2.7 and 2.1, overall just 0.7 C. Snow was frequent at the end of July but absent for most of August. ___ There was also a severe wind storm on Nov 19-20 of 1965, many hours reporting sustained winds in the 100-140 km/hr range (easterly) and a peak gust of 158 km/hr on the 20th. No snow fell but there was blowing snow reported. Temperatures peaked at -5 C, about 20 above normal. ___ 1967 brought the third out of four consecutive very cool summers, the three-month mean was 0.9 C and there was a total of 32 cms of snow in July and August. # _ 1967-68 max snow first peak on Oct 31, 1967 is either due to drifting in strong east winds, or a faulty data entry. The depths on Oct. 30 and Nov. 1 were 25 and 28 cms and no other days had any amounts over 30 cms in these two months. The data point is accepted for now because of the possibility of drifting snow causing the depth (and then drifting out of the range of the observer). The more reliable seasonal peak comes at the more normal time (53 cms on May 30, 1968), ANALYSIS (1948 to 1970) This period will give us a baseline for future comparisons of YRB and YCB. In this period (only the same years are used for YCB) the winter extremes are very similar, mean of coldest month at YRB on average 1.3 C warmer, mean of coldest daily minimum just 0.3 higher. The distribution of months is similar, for this interval with a slight shift to a later profile for YRB. The coldest month at YRB was in January 6.5 times, February 11.5 times, and March 5 times. In the same winters, the distribution at YCB was 9, 12 and 2 cases. The comparison for coldest daily minimum is YRB with YCB in brackets 7.5 (10), 9 (12), 6.5 (1). Here again, YRB shifts somewhat later into the winter season on average, but both locations hit their minimum in February more often than January or March. There was fairly good correlation year to year in winter temperatures but winters of 1963-64 and 1964-65 ran notably colder at YCB. The deepest snow pack (when spring cases are compared) is identical, on average 37 cms in mid-May (day 134). The pack increased by 1 cm on average during May, compared to a loss of 7 cm at YCB. The last snow and last frost at YRB were 21 and 24 days later than at YCB, and pushed into July. The summers at YCB were of course considerably warmer. The warmest month averaged 3.8 C deg lower at YRB and the summer maximum averaged 7.0 deg lower. The distribution at YRB is more July-centric than for YCB which occasionally ventures into June and August more often. Only 3 summers had their warmest month in August (none in June) and only four had their warmest day in August, out of the 23 years in this data set. There was not as good correlation in summer temperatures from YCB to YRB. From about 1957 to 1959, YRB ran only 1-2 deg colder than YCB. YRB ran much colder in intervals 1953-56 and 1964-67. There may be a solar cycle cause and effect hypothesis to examine once we have all data available. The onset of autumn-early winter at YRB is usually in August and comes 19-20 days earlier for first frost then first snow, compared with YCB. The first -20 minimum comes just seven days earlier; one case fell in September. As we move on to later decades, we'll see if YRB responds to the same trends as YCB or whether there are any significant differences in the contrasts between the two locations. (1971 to 1980) YEAR ___ 01 __ 02 ___ 03a __ 03b ___ 04 __ 05 ___ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 ___ 10 __ 11 1971 __ 327F_ 433J_ ---- _ 48/153 _ 212*_ 212 _ +12 _ 58J _ 133J _ 213 _ 219 _ 287 1972 __ 376F_ 489F_ ---- _ 33/160 _ 176 _ 213 __ +3 _ 28J _ 100A _ 214 _ 224 _ 275 1973 __ 352F_ 456M_ --- _ 25/148 _ 208 _ 209 __ --2 _ 36J _133JA_ 223 _ 224 _ 295^ 1974 __ 337J_ 433F_ ---- _ 79/167 _ 203 _ 212 _ +21 _ 32J _ 128A _ 216 _ 223 _ 283 1975 __ 370J_ 478J_ ---- _ 38/130 _ 194 _ 212 _--13 _ 28jun_122jun_213_ 216 _ 268 1976 __ 339F_ 456J_---- _ 48/145 _ 194 _ 207 ___ --3 _ 36J _ 167J _ 214 _ 214 _ 282 1977 __ 367F_ 446F_ 18/0_18/150 _ 148 _ 211 __ --5 _ 53J _ 142J __ 220 _ 243 _ 281 1978 __ 327M_427D_32/-77_38/150_180 _ 194 __ +7_ 49J _ 129J __ 215 _ 217 _ 277 1979 __ 409F_ 520F_ ---- _ 30/151 _ 195 _ 197 __ +5 _ 38J _ 141 J _ 216 _ 222 _ 291 1980 __ 306D_ 430D_ 25/31_28/165_ 204 _ 204__+4 _ 43J _ 124A _ 224 _ 224 _ 275 means _ 351 _ 457 __ xxxx _ 39/152 _ 191 _ 207 __ +3 _ 40 __ 132 __ 217 _ 223 _ 281 _YCB __ 354 _ 470 __ xxxx _ 30/130 _ 159 _ 177 _ --14 _ 79 __ 193 __ 232 _ 245 _ 287 cumulative 1948 to 1980 means _ 353 _ 462 __ xxxx _ 37/140 _ 190 _ 207 __ +1 _ 42 __ 134 __ 218 _ 228 _ 283 _YCB __ 362 _ 469 __ xxxx _ 35/133 _ 166 _ 180 __ --9 _ 81 __ 201 __ 235 _ 248 _ 290 Notes: *__ 1971 last snow on July 31st came after a snow-free period June 12th to July 30th, so perhaps in this case the July 31st snow should be seen as the first snow of the next winter, and the data point is really day 162. Can't bend the rules though. The snow-free period was generally a bit warmer than normal too. __ 1972 had a very cold summer, the mean of the three months was only 0.2 C (June was -3.2, July 2.8 and August 0.9). Despite this, no measurable snow fell from June 25th to August 10th. ^__ October 1973 was unusually mild to about the 20th, temperatures were barely below freezing; snowfall while frequent was not heavy. However, snow depths continued to mount up slowly all through the last three months of the year to reach 46 cms at New Years (more than usual). This depth was maintained to April 1974 then further accumulation in May peaked with 79 cms on the ground June 7th to 16th. This all melted by July 7th. The summer averaged quite cold (0.5 C) but mostly because June was very cold at -4.2, July was 3.2 and August 2.4 C. __ Summer came and went very early in 1975. This was the first year in the series with either a warmest month or day in June. The only real warmth came around the last week of June, July turned quite chilly and August was colder yet. The first -20 C minimum was the earliest in the series (Sept 25th). __ Jan 1977, when temperatures were far below normal in the Great Lakes and northeast U.S., was a very mild winter month for YRB. The mean was -23.8, about 8 above average. The maximum on January 11th was -0.8 C with light snow and a moderate east wind. This was probably 20 degrees higher than most winter months manage to produce. The period 10th to 16th had daily maxima continuously above -10 C and the month had only 10 cms snow cover throughout. Altogether, this was a singularity of some significance in the weather records for the location. Note also, there was one snowfall max of 18 cms on Dec 31 1976 (day 0) and another on May 30 (day 150). The December 31 max was sustained through a large part of Nov-Dec. In between, snow cover almost disappeared around late January (9 cms). __ No measurable snow fell in June 1977 (or in July). This was the earliest date for the last snow (May 28th). __ (3a) 1977-78 winter, Oct 15 (date -77) had a secondary max of 32 cms, snow depths thereafter were generally lower until mid-May. __ A very cold February in 1979 was also very cold much further south in the Great Lakes and northeastern U.S., a different pairing than Jan 1977. The summer featured a cold June and August and an average July, the result was a cold summer (average 0.3). __ The winter of 1979-80 had its coldest weather in Dec 1979 and never achieved much snow cover, an early maximum of 25 cms for most of Dec-Jan then slightly less until a heavier cover was established in late May and early June. ANALYSIS: The overall climate showed very little change from the 1948-70 period to the 1971-80 decade. Various rather unusual circumstances averaged out to almost the same set of means. The coldest month was in December and March once, January twice, and February six times. That brought the 33-year totals for YRB to December 1, January 8.5, February 17.5, and March 6. Meanwhile the timing of the coldest day of the winter season began to expand to include December (2), and the cumulative totals otherwise were January 10.5, February 13, March 7.5. The difference between YRB and YCB changed little, from 1.3 milder (coldest months) to 0.3 milder, while the coldest day now averaged 1.3 milder instead of 0.3 as before (so these reversed roles). While YCB saw a somewhat faster spring melt and less snow in general, YRB trended somewhat in the opposite direction. Now the difference was approaching one month in terms of last snow and last frost. There was also a slight shift at both locations towards more of a bimodal snow distribution although the earlier peak was not reliable or very strong in most winter seasons, and at the same time there was generally more snow in May and June than previously (and it melted later). Several years had basically no summer at all in the 1970s, notably 1972. This was also quite a cool summer in eastern North America especially June and August. Summers were warming slightly at YCB while they got slightly colder at YRB in this decade. This tendency was strongest 1974 to 1976 and then temporarily reversed in 1978 which was the only summer in the series where YRB managed a warmer month than YCB. June produced one warmest month and July the other nine, but as to the warmest day, June had one, July five and August four (so this perhaps indicates a slight tendency for the warmer summers to spread out into early August on occasion). Finally, there was a slight tendency for early winter signals to come a few days earlier in the 1970s, but this was probably not greatly significant. There was no room for the first frost to move earlier as almost every year has one within a day or two of August 1st. The actual frost free interval of any interest for YRB is probably more shifted into mid-July, if there even is such a concept worth pursuing. The average frost free period at YRB over 33 years was a mere 11 days compared with 55 days at YCB. Likely there was a higher average frost-free period if one took the longest one available at YRB whereas the method generally yields the correct result at YCB. The average snow-free interval at YRB is 38 days. This does not prevent frosts and traces of snow from falling in that interval however. The data and analysis for the 1980s will no doubt be interesting; some climate change signals were beginning to show up at YCB in that decade. (1981 to 1990) YEAR ___ 01 __ 02 __ 03a __ 03b ___ 04 ___ 05 ___ 06 __ 07 __ 08 ___ 09 __ 10 __ 11 1981 __ 307F_ 427F_ ---- _ 45/146 _ 206*_ 212 __ +5 _ 47J _ 165J _ 220 _ 220 _ 286 1982 __ 337F_ 444J_ ---- _ 36/142 _ 204 _ 212 __ --8 _ 48J _135 J _ 213 _ 213 _ 289 1983 __ 356F_ 455J_ --- _ 27/148 _ 212a _ 212 __ +3 _ 39J _ 158J _ 220 _ 213 _ 289 1984 __ 356F_ 471M_ --- _ 38/121 _ 209b_ 210 _--23 _ 37J _ 138J _ 217 _ 220 _ 293# 1985 __ 348F_ 448F_ ---- _ 17/124 _ 212c_ 212 _--15 _ 46J _ 131 J _ 213_ 213 _ 283 1986 __341M_466M_(32/-35)_37/143_209_210_ --11 _ 22J%_ 88J _ 213 _ 215 _ 288 1987 __ 362F_ 460F_ ---- _ 27/148 _ 211 _ 212 __ +8 _ 52J _ 140J _ 217 _ 214 _ 291 1988 __ 316J_414F_ ---- _ 18/130 _ 169 _ 177 __--15 _ 62J _ 166J _ 215 _ 230 _ 301 1989 __ 357J_ 453J_ ---- _ 28/134 _ 200 _ 211 __--12 _ 35J _ 142 J _ 213 _ 229 _ 289 1990 __ 373F_487F_38/-85_35/148_ 208 _ 209__ +1 _ 39J _ 111 J _ 215 _ 231 _ 280 means _ 345 _ 453 _32/116_ 31/138 _ 204 _ 208 __ --7_ 43 __ 137 __ 216 _ 220 _ 289 _YCB __ 348 _ 450 __ xxxx _ 40/126 _ 161 _ 175 __ --7 _ 82 __ 211 __ 238 _ 241 _ 291 cumulative 1948 to 1990 means _ 351 _ 460 __33/135_36/139 _ 193 _ 207 ___ 0 _ 43 __ 135 __ 217 _ 226 _ 284 _YCB __ 359 _ 464 __36/128_36/131 _ 164 _ 179 __ --8 _ 81 __ 203 __ 236 _ 247 _ 290 Notes: *__ The last snow in 1981 was a heavy fall of 8.9 cm on July 25th but otherwise there was no measurable snow on any other days in June or July 1981. a_ The middle third of July 1983 was a lot warmer than the other two thirds, so for that particular year the last snowfall and frost were more appropriately in early July (1st and 4th). Snow was frequent in the last week of July. b_ The first ten days of July 1984 were rather warm. The last snow before that interval was on June 27th and the last frost on June 29th. The data in the table are later in July but in this case after the brief summer had come and gone. # _ Just before this first -20 C reading, a very mild incursion from the southwest took place, temperatures rose to about 1 C on October 13th, with rain reported and considerable snow melt. Pressures fell as low as 979 mbs but winds were rather moderate (veering ESE to WSW as the disturbance passed). This was quite an unusual event for early winter and in fact it had been colder than normal during much of late September, almost reaching the first -20 C then. c__ Rather mild weather came and went several times in July 1985 but the frost and snow free interval was basically 2nd to 28th of July with slight frosts midway through that interval; more frequent snow and sharper frosts set in at the end of July. %__ 1986 had a very cold summer, mean of only 0.2 (June -2.5, July 2,2, August 1.0). ANALYSIS (1981-1990) Winters remained very close to their long-term averages and as a result, with YCB warming slightly, YRB went somewhat colder in this decade; coldest month was still 0.3 deg less cold than YCB, but extremes were running 0.3 colder. February was most often (7/10) the coldest month and this brought the running totals over 43 winters to December 1, January 10.5, February 24.5, and March 7. The extremes were also dominated by February, and the running totals there are December 2, January 13.5, February 18, March 9.5. Snowfall dropped off at YRB at roughly the same time that it picked up at YCB. The mean in this decade, 31 cms for peak spring snow, was 8 cm lower than the previous decade and it tended to occur earlier by half a month (mid-May instead of near end of May). Consequently the April to May change in snow depth value also dropped from +3 cm to zero, while YCB went in the other direction, losing 7 rather than 14 cm. The two climates were at this point slowly converging in snowfall figures although not in frost or summer temperatures. The frost and snow statistics generally cannot change much given that frost usually occurs about one quarter of all days in July and early August near the seasonal boundary. The observed change was just one day at each end of the frost free window (a colder outcome) but snow was observed more frequently near the theoretical limits of the season(s) and the snow-free interval dropped by 27 days at YRB. As discussed in some of the notes, there were several cases where July had a summer interlude mid-month and the method of analysis does not perfectly fit that paradigm, perhaps a more stable frost free period would emerge from a different dividing point. Summers during the 1981-90 decade at YRB showed no signs of warming although in a longer period analysis 1987 might appear to be a trend-breaking point. Summers were about 1.5 deg warmer on average from 1987 to 1990 than previously and the extremes were up almost 2 degrees. This was a decade where all the summer extremes fell in July. Finally, the first -20 C minimum drifted about a week later in this decade and by the end was closing the gap with YCB.