Roger Smith

..Anomalies so far in July ... ___________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (7-17) __ anom for 1-16 ______ +4.8 _ +3.8 _ +4.0 ___ +0.2 _ +3.5 _ +0.8 ___ +0.7 _ +6.3 _ +5.9 (7-17) __ (p anom 1-31) ______ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 (7-22) _ updates July anom__ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 (7-26) _ updates July anom__ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ -1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _ +2.5 (8-01) _ final anoms __________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____-0.4 _+1.5 _ -1.0 _____+0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7 (17) _ Projections are based on +1 anoms for rest of July in east, central, and +3 to +4 in west. (22) _ Adjusted ORD, IAH and DEN down. (26) _ Adjusted IAH and SEA down. (01) _ Final anomalies posted. Scoring adjusted.

Thanks for all data posted about July 1936. There are stories of horrific urban death tolls in Chicago, NYC, and Toronto as well as lots of other places in those pre-A/C days and after a sizzling 105-110 day, no relief even if lows dipped a bit below 80, inside temps were likely well into 90s after a few days of it ... and stories of people sleeping on rooftops and in parks for duration of severe heat. Toronto set high min records only broken once since (78F on several of days of 105F interval). Also to give further idea of upper driving forces in July 1936, Toronto also had its sunniest and driest July on record. It basically did not rain at all and averaged 12 hrs sun per day. Drought must have been extreme in Ontario and upstate NY at least. It was quite warm also in may (a top 20 mean for Toronto and NYC) before a relatively cool June. Upper ridge probably peaking around 603-605 dm over SD-IA early in July, flattened a bit to allow heat to spread east, then retrogressed and a trof deepened over east coast later in July. Some further oscillations in August as heat was unrelenting in central plains states and showed up again briefly in eastern US and s Ontario early August (and again around Sept 18). 1854 was apparently a less extreme copy of 1936. Caswell's Providence RI journal talks about forest fire smoke clouds darkening skies around same time as 97-98 max in Toronto mid-July. As to winter 1936-37, you'll probably find in detail, very cold at times late NOV, milder last part of DEC and all JAN, still quite mild FEB, colder in march -- betting most of 20" snow occurred at bookends of a mild winter. Another summer with extreme heat in northeast US was 1911, any interesting runs of 100+ for you?

I would be interested in seeing data from July 1936 in your region. Toronto and New York City both set their all-time highs in July 1936 (Toronto 105F July 8, 9 and 10; NYC 106 July 9). A lot of other locations in eastern and central U.S. set very high records that month also. When it was reported that DCA matched a string of three hot days set in 1930, I started to wonder why 1936 wasn't in the mix (although NYC only went two days >100). The heat was generally intense from around 7th to mid-month (and also around Aug 3-5). A location in ND (Steele) was 120F and it exceeded 110 in parts of west-central Canada also, although July 1937 produced a hotter reading of 113F in SK and June 30, 2021 broke that national record in BC at 120F in Lytton BC -- it was 45C (113F) at my place so for a day I was living in a location tying our national record -- town of Lytton (pop 1200) was burned to ground by train-track-spark-induced fires on day of record warm max). There has been very little rebuilding yet because of insurance wrangles and archaeology issues (academics wanting to sift soil for cultural relics pre-settlement days). Not that there is any rush to live in this notorious hot spot anyway. On similar topic, a toasty 100F at 1230 local time as we endure day seven of our heat wave. I am by no means in a hot spot here, we live halfway upslope from Columbia River to alpine regions at around 3400' asl, it is probably around 105F in valley now.

WE JEBWALK !!! new contest leader Jebman _ scroll back two posts, scoring table updated. ... only five of 29 forecasters predicted an average 102 or over, current average is 102.5 for four locations. ... only one forecaster carries no expired forecasts (GeorgeBm) ... only four can now win contest (Jebman, George, RogerS, Rhino16) first of all, to overtake Jebman you need unexpired forecasts, of larger value than his differentials ... 1, 1, -1, 0. If your differentials are same at a given station, you have no advantage. A differential of zero at BWI is no advantage now either. This is a list of people with larger differentials than our leader, to use up and gain advantages. (Figure in brackets is your potential advantage, each degree you "receive" gives you a two-point gain vs Jebman, your max potential gain is twice number in brackets.) Same is true for you vs any forecaster in lists below. For example, at IAD, I have a +1 on Rhino16 for a potential gain of 2, but to realize it IAD has to reach 105F or above. For outcomes between current 101F at IAD and eventual 102 to 104, a smaller differential is no advantage over a larger one. You start gaining advantages over field when their forecasts are surpassed. Differentials larger than Jebman at each location DCA _ George 4 (+3) _ this effectively removes DCA from future relevance to contest unless George can hit other targets below since score differential is 26 and DCA only gives George a potential 6 point gain. Also, Jebman moves 2 points further ahead all other forecasters if DCA goes to 105F or above. IAD _ George 9 (+8), RogerS 4 (+3), Rhino16 3 (+2), NorthBaltiZen 2 (+1) __ George can recover up to 16 points vs Jebman, and bring total differential to four (before considering two stations below) if DCA worked out also. BWI _ George 6 (+6), RogerS 2 (+2) RIC _ George 10 (+10), RogerS 6 (+6), Rhino16 3 (+3), RickinBaltimore 2 (+2), yoda, katabatic, midAtlwx 1 (+1). Yoda could finish second to Jebman for a RIC 102F outcome. Last four in RIC list are too far behind Jebman now to utilize small advantages, but would move up by 2 or 4 points vs field if RIC goes to 102 or 103. NBZ is also too far behind to use a 2 point advantage at IAD but would finish second in contest if IAD hits 103F and no other changes took place. Safe zone for Jebman appears to be up to 106 103 106 103 At 106 103 106 103 scores would total Jebman 7 RogerS 9 Rhino16 10 George 21 If any station goes above 106-103-106-103 and rest hit, at that point RogerS could pass Jebman, and has further one degree (2 pt) advantage on Rhino16 at IAD after 104F, and advantages at BWI and RIC also. So Rhino16 can only win at one outcome (I think) and that is 104 104 104 104. (could be one or two successful outcomes nearby also) Going above 106-103-106-103 would mean only RogerS or George could win. Going past 106-105-106-107 is point where RogerS no longer enjoys any part of 12 point advantage as per above, so any addition of total of 6 degrees to that set (as an example 107-107-107-109) would create a tie broken by larger differentials, and any total of 7 or greater would result in a George win. Obviously if George makes targets, nobody will be left alive to discuss it anyway. (jk) So if current heat is ever surpassed in summer 2024 (many hope not) then those are possible contest results.

Large hail signature on that purple cell on radar, look out lower hudson valley. Could also go tornadic.

If you ever wondered, what's it like in Spokane, Boise or Salt Lake City in summer, this is about it, with a bit of added humidity. Around my location, we are into day six of 100+ (we ducked out to coast for days 2-5 for nice 85F relief) and as high as 105F several of recent days, we don't get really low dew points like Arizona, Nevada or southern Utah with the 115/39 sorts of readings, we get 100/60 to 65 fairly often and dew points can be into low 70s if hot air comes in over moist forests as was the case here before about July 5th (fire danger rating was low here two weeks ago, is now extreme as forests have dried out rapidly, but no large fires yet, just spot fires easily put down). If we stay in this heat another week as depicted in our region, we're going to see larger fires in PAC NW region and so you'll be seeing evidence by August or September in terms of smoke layers aloft. So far only large fires seem to be in Utah.

... incoming ... 103F at BWI already. Look for table edit by 8 pm, I need RIC to get in on this action.

Scoring after July 15, 2024 ... Roger Ramjet is our leader, yoda second on later entry (identical errors, different locations) Update: July 16, 2024 ... We Jebwalk !!! Actual to date __________________________ 104_101_104_101 Departures ________________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ departures not reversible Jebman (20) _______________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 3 (1) _____ 1 yoda (28) __________________________2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 6 (2) _____ 5 Roger Ramjet (18) _________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 6 (3) _____ 6 WxDavis5784 (11) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 6 (4)_____ 6 wxdude64 (6) _____________________3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (5) _____ 6 Terpeast (10) ______________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 7 (6) _____ 6 ___ Consensus (median) ___________4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (6.5)____7 katabatic (19) ______________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (7) _____ 6 North Balti Zen (4) ________________ 4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 8 (8) _____ 6 Weather53 (22) ___________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 8 (9) _____ 8 LittleVillageWx (17) ________________ 5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (10)_____ 8 RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _________ 9 (11)_____ 6 PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 9 (12) _____ 9 Gramax Refugee (15) ______________5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 9 (13) _____ 9 Palocene (21) ______________________4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 _________10 (14)____10 Rhino16 (13) _______________________ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________11 (15) ____ 5 WxUSAF (9) _______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 _________ 11 (16)_____11 MN Transplant (25) ________________5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 11 (17) ____ 11 midAtlanticweather (24) ___________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _________ 11 (18)_____10 TSG (7) ____________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 _________ 11 (19) _____11 biodhokie (8) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 12 (20)_____12 LongRanger (27) ___________________ 6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 12 (21)_____12 nw baltimore wx (3) _______________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 13 (22)_____13 Roger Smith (1) ____________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 _________ 13 (23) ____ 1 nmyers1204 (29) ___________________7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 13 (24)____ 12 GATECH (26) _______________________5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 14 (25) ____14 Jenkins Jinkies (14) ________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 __________14 (26) ____14 Eskimo Joe (16) ____________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________15 (27) ____ 10 tplbge (23) _________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _________16 (28) ____ 16 George BM (12) _____________________4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 _______ 29 (29) _____ 0 ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 3.9 _ 0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 _____ 7.0 _______ 6.8 note: increasing surpassed errors in italic, total at end of data row __ ^^ _______________________________ (forecasts) FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ average (rank) Average of four forecasts shows warm bias and is ranked, data illustrated by graphic format. George BM (12) ___________________ 108 _ 110 _ 110 _ 111 ________________ 109.75 (1) Jebman (20) ______________________ 105 _ 102 _ 103 _ 101 _________ 102.75 (t3) Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 103 _ 105 _ 106 _ 107 ___________ 105.25 (2) Rhino16 (13) _______________________102 _ 104 _ 101 _ 104 _________ 102.75 (t3) yoda (28) __________________________102 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6) RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 101.75 (5) wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9) Roger Ramjet (18) __________________101 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.0 (t11) North Balti Zen (4) _________________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.5 (t6) katabatic (19) ______________________100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6) Terpeast (10) ______________________ 100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9) Weather53 (22) ___________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13) PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.25 (t15) biodhokie (8) ______________________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 __99 ______ 99.50 (t23) Palocene (21) ______________________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 100.0 (18) ___ Consensus (median) ___________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 100.75 (12/13) WxUSAF (9) ________________________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 99.75 (t19) WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 99 _ 101 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 101.0 (t11) LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13) MN Transplant (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 100 __99 _______ 99.75 (t19) midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 100.25 (t15) Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _____ 100.25 (t15) nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 99.25 (25) GATECH (26) _______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 99.0 (t26) tplbge (23) _________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 98.5 (29) TSG (7) _____________________________ 98 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 99.75 (t19) LongRanger (27) ____________________98 _ 100 _ 102 __ 98 ______ 99.50 (t23) Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 99.0 (t26) Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________98 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 98.75 (28) nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 97 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 99.75 (t19) ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 100.1_ 101.1_ 101.1 _101.1 ___100.85 (raw differentials for future edits _ increasing surpassed errors in italic) George BM (12) ___________________ 4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 ________________ 109.75 (1) Jebman (20) ______________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 102.75 (t3) ___ Current actuals ________________ 0 _ 0 _ 0 _ 0 _______ 102.0 (would be 5) Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 ___________ 105.25 (2) Rhino16 (13) _______________________2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________ 102.75 (t3) yoda (28) __________________________2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 101.5 (t6) RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _______ 101.75 (5) wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _______ 101.25 (t9) Roger Ramjet (18) __________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _______ 101.0 (t11) North Balti Zen (4) _________________4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _______ 101.5 (t6) katabatic (19) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _______ 101.5 (t6) Terpeast (10) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _______ 101.25 (t9) Weather53 (22) ___________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 100.5 (t13) PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 100.25 (t15) biodhokie (8) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 ______ 99.50 (t23) Palocene (21) ______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 ______ 100.0 (18) ___ Consensus (median) ___________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 ______ 100.75 (12/13) WxUSAF (9) ________________________4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 ______ 99.75 (t19) WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 ______ 101.0 (t11) LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 ______ 100.5 (t13) MN Transplant (25) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _______ 99.75 (t19) midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _____ 100.25 (t15) Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _____ 100.25 (t15) nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 ______ 99.25 (25) GATECH (26) _______________________ 5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 ______ 99.0 (t26) tplbge (23) _________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _____ 98.5 (29) TSG (7) _____________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 ______ 99.75 (t19) LongRanger (27) ____________________6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 99.50 (t23) Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 ______ 99.0 (t26) Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _____ 98.75 (28) nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 99.75 (t19) ___ mean (avg) ____________________ 3.9 _0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 ___100.85 _______________________________

Salt Lake City 106F on July 11, locations across s/c UT above 100F and two large fires largely out of control to s.e. and also n.w. of Bryce Canyon NP.

Updated highs for 2024 so far ... see June contest thread for forecasts and previous values to date. DCA_104 (7/16) ... NYC_95 ... BOS_98 ... ORD_97 ... ATL_100 ... IAH_ 100 ... DEN_102 (7/12) ... PHX_118 ... SEA _ 98 (9th) I have beat them all except PHX so far (105 locally today July 10). Las Vegas 120 and Death Valley 129, not going to want to beat those. Will update anomalies at mid-month after 16 days as I consider 1-16 first half of a 31-day month.

Today's record max of 134F at Death Valley is still listed on NWS climate report as a daily record (and all-time), but as mentioned, some doubt was raised about exposure or calibration of 1913 era reports, not saying it was a lot cooler since 131F recently is max more widely accepted. July 10 also one of Toronto's max days from July 1936 (105F on July 8, 9 and 10) in 184 years of records (103F in July 1911 is next warmest) ... NYC max is 106F on July 9, 1936. It is a stifling 101F at my location and 105F down in valley today. A weak cold front made it as far as Cascades but will not have a lot of impact east of Okanagan valley as cool air is quickly modified to near same temps as interior air mass. But a pleasant 75-80F around Vancouver BC today.

Las Vegas broke all-time record twice in past few days, 120F and 119F. It was around 105 F locally past two days. Not quite like 2021 but very uncomfortable.

Low is going to be near Lake Erie late Wed, cold front will be passing you around 09z Thursday 11th.

Death Valley 129F ... the old record of 134F in July 1913 is no longer regarded as properly exposed but I believe 131F is the accepted top value there. About 95F here today, very low dew points at least.

09z message is setting stage for possible eastward jog and landfall towards Galveston. It would keep Beryl over very warm waters a bit longer, landfall would probably be delayed to 21z monday and just about time to deepen to low cat-3. You can see concern for s.e. Texas growing.

Table of forecasts for July 2024 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 ______________+4.3 _ +2.9 _ +2.9 ___+2.4 _ +2.6 _+2.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.3 _+0.7 rainsucks ____________________+4.2 _ +4.2 _ +4.3 ___+4.5 _ +3.3 _+3.1 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.4 RJay _________________________+3.7 _ +3.7 _ +3.7 ___ +3.7 _ +3.7 _+3.5 ___+3.5 _+2.7 _+1.0 George BM ___________________+3.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.7 ___ +2.2 _ +3.0 _+1.9 ___ +0.7 _+1.2 _ -0.7 wxallannj _____________________+2.8 _ +2.6 _ +2.7 ___ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _+2.3 Tom __________________________+2.6 _ +2.8 _ +2.6 ___ +3.1 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 ___ +2.3 _+1.9 _+0.8 so_whats_happening ________ +2.4 _ +2.2 _ +2.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _+1.9 __ +1.1 ___ Consensus ______________+2.4 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 ___ +2.3 _ +2.0 _+1.6 ___+2.2 _+1.9 _ +0.8 DonSutherland1 _____________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _+1.8 _ +0.2 Scotty Lightning _____________ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___+2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _+2.0 _ +0.5 Roger Smith__________________ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ +2.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +4.5 _+2.3 Stormchaser Chuck __________+1.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +3.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.1 ___ +3.4 _ +0.6 _ -0.5 RodneyS _____________________+0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ___ -0.1 _ +0.6 _ +1.0 ____+1.1 __ +1.0 _ +1.1 wxdude64 ___________________+0.4 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 ___ -0.3 _ -0.4 _ -0.3 ____+1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ================== Color coded for high and low forecasts. Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS and DEN. ___ Persistence (June 2024) ______+3.4 __ +3.1 __ +2.9 ___ +3.3 __ +3.5 __ +1.6 _____ +5.6 __ +5.6 __ -1.0

Looking at various buoy reports and water temps are above 88F even 50-60 miles off coast, and above 92F in shallow waters near coast (Baffin Bay reports 93+). I notice storm surge watch extends to Sabine Pass. If Beryl does continue to track east of guidance it will take longer to reach coastal waters and will have a few extra hours to intensify, thus concern for possible cat-3 outcome if so. I agree it would likely be capped at cat-2 if it does hit west of Galveston as most seem to expect.

18z report says WNW but difference in position 15z to 18z is +0.6N and +0.4W which would suggest NW or NNW. 15z 23.0 96.3 18z 23.6 96.7 I would expect rapid intensification to begin tonight, still looks east for landfall.

ICON could be scoring a coup on this, Beryl certainly looks like it is heading for east Texas or even Sabine Pass, and that puts an Audrey evolution in play (Audrey cat-4 landfall June 26-27 1957, catastrophic storm surge and coastal wind damage, and also a long inland path of heavy rainfalls extending into midwest US and lower Great Lakes). Audrey started out from Gulf of Campeche and earlier was only a tropical wave in Caribbean (albeit a week earlier in season). But ominously, storm summary mentions anomalous warmth of Gulf waters in June 1957 at 85F (some readings in path of Beryl are 86-87F). Also Audrey continued to deepen to near landfall and some disputed readings suggest an even stronger storm than is officially catalogued. Some measuring devices were destroyed before peak of storm passed. A large death toll (400-600) ensued mainly from storm surge around Cameron LA. Nobody can be certain of course, but I will punt for possible outcome being a strong cat-3 or weak cat-4 landfall near Galveston or even further east, Tuesday afternoon-evening. The upper level steering environment is almost featureless and if Beryl has another rapid intensification it will cut through a weak upper ridge and join up with trof developing over central plains states.

GFS was looking like a possible Texas impact even if landfall occurs in mexico; track turns NNW near coast and only a small jog east in point of recurvature would lead to a central TX coastal landfall. As it stands I would interpret GFS as a direct hit on Brownsville region (forward quadrant still over Gulf) and a significant event for Corpus Christi and San Antonio. Also by GFS 5-7 day standards it is quite a robust looking 'cane after a brief downgrade after Yucatan. It could easily be cat 3-4 in western Gulf. Just speculative at this point and of course GFS far from infallible. Gilbert on a similar track deepened below 900 mbs at one point, IIRC, but was in prime season (mid-Sep).

<<< July daily records for NYC >>> The system used for noting the two day rainfalls is similar to that used previously for two day snowfalls. They end on the date listed, * means that only the record rainfall for the date is involved in the two-day maximum, and ** means that the two-day max comes from the previous date's record rainfall. Temps in brackets with record low mins are non-record maxima associated, to give a more complete picture of type of day setting low minima. Some daily records with multiple ties are shown in full detail by notes below main text. DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ notes Jul 01 ___100 1901 ____ 79 2018 _______ 70 1869,71,88 _52 1943 (74) ______2.17 1933 ___ 3.71 1984 Jul 02 ___100 1901,66 _ 82 1901 _______ 67 1891 _____ 56 1888, 2011 ____1.79 1914 ___ 2.41 1914 Jul 03 ___103 1966 ____ 82 2002 _______64 1870,1914 __ 54 1933 (65) ______2.80 1930 ___ 2.80 1930* Jul 04 ___102 1949 ____ 81 2002 _______ 62 1978 _____55 1986 (77) ______ 1.76 1981 ___ 3.19 1967 (2.08+1.11) 2.91" 2d 1978 Jul 05 ___101 1999 ____ 82 1999 _______ 62 1882 _____53 1979 (69) ______ 3.07 1901 ___ 3.07 1901* Jul 06 ___103 2010 ____ 83 1999 _______ 61 1956 _____54 1979 (78) ______ 1.97 1896 ___ 4.33 1901 Jul 07 ___100 2010 ____ 84 1908 _______ 71 1914,43,87 _56 1914 __________ 3.13 1984 ___ 3.14 1984 Jul 08 ___100 1993 ____ 80 1993 _______ 66 2005 _____ 56 1894 (67) ______ 2.27 2021 ___ 3.13 1984** Jul 09 ___106 1936 ____ 80 1981^_______63 1964 _____ 54 1963 (78) ______ 2.06 2021 ___ 4.33 2021 Jul 10 ___102 1936,93__80 1993 _______ 65 1917 _____ 55 1890 (70) ______ 2.54 2020 ___ 2.33 2021__(2.32 1997) Jul 11 ___ 98 1988 ____ 79 1988 _______ 64 1914 _____ 57 1893, 98 _______ 1.94 1940 ___ 3.30 2020 __ 2.72" 2d 1874 (1.94+0.78) Jul 12 ___ 99 1966 ____ 79 1905 _______ 67 1990 _____ 57 1926 ___________ 2.68 1937 ___ 3.09 1937 Jul 13 ___101 1966 ____ 79 1876 _______ 67 1964 _____54 1888 (70) _____ 3.16 1972 ___ 3.16 1972* __ 2.83" 2d 1897 (0.54+2.29) Jul 14 ___100 1954 ____ 78 1952 _______ 73 2017^____ 58 1877,88,1926 __ 1.47 1908 ___ 3.16 1972** Jul 15 ___102 1995 ____ 84 1995 _______ 67 1926 _____57 1930 (78) 14th __ 1.80 1975 ___ 1.98 1975 tied 1.98 2000 (0.59+1.39) Jul 16 ___ 99 1980 ____ 80 1952 _______ 70 1933 _____ 56 1926, 46 _______ 1.50 1871 ___ 2.16 1926 (0.78+1.38) Jul 17 ___100 1953 ____ 82 1870 _______ 72 1992 _____57 1892 (76) ______ 3.13 1995 ___ 3.16 1995 __ 2.91 1877 Jul 18 ___101 1953 ____ 81 1900,2013 __66 1962 _____57 1925 (77) ______ 1.81 2022 ___ 3.36 1995 Jul 19 ___102 1977 ____ 83 2013 _______ 69 2000 _____57 1924 (77) 18th __ 1.82 1919 ___ 2.67 1919 Jul 20 ___101 1980 ____ 82 2015,19 ____ 69 1869 _____55 1890 (70) ______ 1.97 1889 ___ 2.77 1919 __ 2.22 1988 (0.94+1.28) Jul 21 ___104 1977 ____ 82 1980 _______ 66 1956 _____55 1890 (73) ______ 2.26 1983 ___ 2.99 1988 (1.28+1.71) Jul 22 ___104 2011 ____ 84 2011 _______ 69 1958 _____58 1871, 90 _______ 1.86 1880 ___ 2.50 1896 (1.06+1.44) Jul 23 ___100 2011 ____ 83 2011 _______ 70 1996^_____58 1871,90 ________ 2.41 1953 ___ 2.99 1946 __ 2.70 1938 (0.30+2.40) Jul 24 ___ 97 1999,2010 _80 2010 _______ 67 1904 _____56 1893 (74) ______ 3.75 1997 ___ 3.75 1997 __ 2.73 1938 (2.40+0.33) Jul 25 ___ 97 1999 ____ 80 1885 _______ 68 2013 _____57 1953 (79) ______ 1.64 1926 ___ 4.62 1997 __ 2.49 1975 (1.06+1.43) Jul 26 ___ 98 1940 ____ 79 1979 _______ 69 1901,2000_55 1920 (75) ______ 3.24 2000 ___ 3.24 1997*__ 2.91 1872 (1d) Jul 27 ___ 98 1940,63__78 1995 _______ 68 1897,2000_55 1920 (79) ______2.65 1889 ___ 4.37 2000 Jul 28 ___ 97 1999^____ 80 2020 _______68 1897 _____ 57 1903 (72 27th) _ 3.11 1913 ___ 3.11 1913*__ 3.06 1902 (1d) Jul 29 ___ 99 1949 ____ 79 1995, 2002 _ 69 1884 _____59 1914 (69 28th) _ 3.47 1980 ___ 3.47 1980* __ 3.14 1913 2d Jul 30 ___ 98 1988^____80 2002 _____ 68 1881,1914 __ 57 1956 (75) ______3.56 1960 ___ 3.64 1971 (0.64+3.00) Jul 31 ___102 1933 ____ 82 1917 _______65 1923 _____ 57 1895, 1914 _____2.29 1889 ___ 3.56 1960**_ 3.13" 1971 2d ^ -- - - - - - - - - - -- ^ min with the 1936 all-time record high max was 77. 1937 had 79 same date. ^ low max tied July 14 in 1884, 1960, 1963, 2017 note 18th: 2022 replaced 2012 (1.72") ^ low max tied July 23 in 1894, 1909, 1969, 1992, 1996. ^ max for July 28 tied 1892, 1931, 1949, 1999. ^ max for July 30 tied 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988. ^ 2d rainfall July 30-31 3.00" 1918 (2.00+1.00) __________________________________________________________________

+1.8 __ +2.0 __ +1.5 ___ +2.3 __ +1.4 __ +1.7 __ +2.3 __ +4.5 __ +2.3

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-June 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 434 _424 _446 __1304 __ 368 _442 _390 __1200 _2504 __372 _480 _474 _1326____ 3830 rainsucks _______________ 516 _526 _446__1488 __ 381 _402 _410 __ 1193 _ 2681 __276 _396 _380 _1052 ____ 3733 RJay ____________________460 _471 _414 __1345 __ 386 _419 _362 __ 1167 _ 2512 __322 _427 _377 __1126 ____ 3638 ___ Consensus _________410 _410_432 __1252 __366_408 _398 __ 1172 _ 2424 __310 _450 _434__1194____ 3618 DonSutherland1 ________ 406 _438 _452 __1296 __370 _360 _344 __1074 _2370 __346 _398 _380 __1124 ____ 3494 BKViking ________________436 _432 _450 __1218 __ 291 _389 _333 __1013 _2331 __316 _431 _405 __ 1152 ____ 3483 so_whats_happening ___384 _392 _440 __1216 __ 355 _368 _344 __1067 _2283 __328 _384 _444 __1156 ____ 3439 hudsonvalley21 _________402 _350 _376 __1128 __ 354 _412 _424 __1190 _2318 __ 326 _368 _386 __1080 ____ 3398 Scotty Lightning ________403 _337 _363 __1103 __248 _429 _415 __1092 _2195 __ 307 _399 _451 __ 1157 ____ 3352 Tom ____________________ 362 _360 _386 __1108 __302 _382 _378 __1062 _2170 __ 274 _420 _430 __ 1124 ____ 3294 Roger Smith ____________ 358 _330 _252 __ 940 __394 _441 _362 __ 1197 _2137 __ 298 _418 _328 __1044 ____ 3181 RodneyS _______________ 268 _366 _394 __1028 __195 _ 296 _406 __ 897 _ 1925 __ 380 _348 _464 __1192 ____ 3117 wxdude64 ______________ 265 _295 _387 __ 947 __252 _281 _317 __ 850 _ 1797 __ 343 _ 391 _ 417 __ 1151 ____ 2948 --------------------- Persistence _____________ 452 _416 _444 __1312 __228 _396 _354 __ 978 _2290 _ 078 _ 266 _420 __ 764 ____ 3054 Normal __________________ 224 _214 _306 __ 744 __ 154 _294 _272 __720 _1464 __ 264 _374 _492 __1130 ____ 2594 ------------------ Rhino16 (4/6) ____________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ____ 2154 (3231) Stormchaser Chuck (4/6)_182 _214 _234 __ 630 __230 _144 _182 __ 556 __1186 ___ 146 _294 _264 __ 704 ____ 1890 (2835) pro-rated scores for 4/6 entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence is well above Normal and now into lower portion of forecaster group after a relatively good June. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________2*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 1 _May rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 2* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ______ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___2**__ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _Apr RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^____0 ______ 0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 1 _ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 35 qualified (28 for warmest, 7 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 ___ 8-2 ___ 8.0 - 1.5 Rhino16 ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 ___ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 ___ 5-0 ___ 4.5 - 0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 ___ 4-0 ___3.0 - 0 wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 4-1 ___ 3.0 - 1 Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 ___ 4-2 ___ 3.0 - 2 RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 2-0 ___ 2.0 - 0 Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _ 0-0 ___ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ____ 2-1 wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-2 BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 0-1 Tom, swh ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 0-0

Okay noted in table.

Just a reminder to the NYC crew to enter July temperature forecast contest tomorrow, with this weekend's timing I anticipate change of month will not be top of mind ... and contest is getting closer after June's scoring.