Roger Smith

__ Table of forecasts __ 2024 N Atlantic tropical season contest __ Scoring rules at base of table, order of entry breaks any tied scoring ranks. NOAA, expert consensus, UK and contest consensus will be ranked independently (won't affect your contest ranks) ... a few entries were posted on Net-weather (UK) and boards.ie weather forum (Ireland). ... ranks will be (a) overall and also (b) for each forum. Order of entry is for American Wx Forum entries, separate coded order of entry is given for guests. (e.g. NW-1 indicates first of five Net-weather entries). In event of U.S. and guest forecasts being tied, I will determine from forum posted dates relative order of entry. Contest consensus is a median (not a mean) of (not-specific-expert-group) on time entries. FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________storms __ hurr __ major TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 33 _____ 15 ______ 8 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________25 _____ 14 ______ 8 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7 ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5 JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________24 _____ 14 ______ 4 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5 Stebo (17) ___________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 Eyewall (late) ________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4 ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________24 _____ 12 _____ 5 StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 GeorgeBM (37) ______________________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4 ___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5 Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4 Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8 Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6 cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6 Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5 ___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4 Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3 Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4 ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5 ___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5 Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5 Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4 Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5 Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________ 20 _____ 11 ______ 6 vpBob (27) __________________________________ 20 ______ 9 ______ 5 jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4 wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4 tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4 Retrobuc (12) ________________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2 Consensus is median of on-time forecasts, late forecasts are not used. Scoring for contest will follow same rules as previous years. Errors for named storms (S) are applied at 50% compared to errors in H and M For H and M error deductions (from 100 points) are an average of error and error squared. For example, a forecast of 11 H and outcome of 13 takes a penalty of 3 (average of 2 and 4). An error of six takes a penalty of 21 (average of 6 and 36) ... etc. Errors for number of storms will be calculated in similar way but will be divided by 2, so if you predicted 30 storms and 24 occur, error deduction is half of 21, or 10.5. Scores around 95 usually win this contest. Note: If you discover your forecast is a duplicate of an earlier submitted forecast and you want to alter your forecast to nearest available different forecast, post by June 10.

Difficult to edit above post, basically, NOAA will go into contest at 21 10.5 5.5 and expert consensus will be 23 11 5. I will note UK 22 12 4 also. Working on table of forecasts, will be available on June 6. Contest is now closed to entries but I would accept any posted before table appears.

According to wikipedia, following are pre-season expert forecasts ... TSR Dec 11, 2023 20 9 4 CSU April 4, 2024 23 11 5 MFM April 5, 2024 21 11 N/A TSR April 8, 2024 23 11 5 UA April 8, 2024 21 11 5 MU April 12, 2024 26 11 5 NCSU April 16, 2024 15–20 10–12 3–4 UPenn April 24, 2024 33 N/A N/A SMN May 6, 2024 20–23 9–11 4–5 UKMO* May 22, 2024 22 12 4 NOAA May 23, 2024 17–25 8–13 4–7 [ TSR May 30, 2024 24 12 6

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-May 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 392 _372 _384 __1148 __314 _402 _304 __1020 _2168 __348 _444 _424 _1216____ 3384 rainsucks _______________444 _452 _370 __1266__299 _342 _318 __ 959 _ 2225 __234 _366 _326 __926 ____ 3151 ___ Consensus _________358 _346_368 __1072 __312_350 _306 __968 _ 2040 __280 _420 _376__1076____ 3116 RJay ____________________389 _394 _333 __1116 __ 313 _350 _272 __ 935 _2051 __ 288 _393 _337 __1018 ____ 3069 (3126)* DonSutherland1 ________364 _380 _390 __1134 __ 316 _324 _256 __ 896 _2030 __ 328 _384 _310 __1022 ____ 3052 so_whats_happening ___340 _340 _380 __1060 __311 _318 _252 __ 881 _ 1941 __ 304 _360 _384 __ 1048 ____ 2989 hudsonvalley21 _________354 _288 _312 __ 954 __314 _350 _336 __1000 _1954 __290 _346 _336 ___ 972 ____ 2926 BKViking ________________360 _348 _374 __1082 __241 _319 _261 __ 821 _ 1903 __272 _401 _ 345 __ 1018 ____ 2921 Tom _____________________306 _296 _318 __ 920 __250 _326 _282 __ 858 _1778 __ 246 _392 _362 __ 1000 ____ 2778 RodneyS ________________236 _306 _346 __ 888 __195 _276 _320 __ 791 _ 1679 __ 354 _342 _396 __ 1092 ____ 2771 Scotty Lightning ________311 _249 _ 281 __ 841 __ 184 _359 _323 __ 866 _1707 __ 283 _375 _391 __ 1049 ____ 2756 Roger Smith _____________296 _260 _192 __ 748 __320 _365 _310 __ 995 _ 1743 __ 234 _374 _272 __ 880 ____ 2623 wxdude64 ______________ 249 _263 _331 __ 843 __224 _259 _239 __ 722 _ 1565 __ 307 _363 _379 __1049 ____ 2614 Persistence _____________ 378 _342 _376 __1096 __ 146 _306 _260 __712 _ 1808 _ 078 _ 236 _340 __ 654 ____ 2462 Normal __________________ 192 _176 _264 __ 632 __ 134 _264 _204 __602 _ 1234 __ 264 _374 _412 __ 1050 ____ 2284 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5)_150 _172 _198 __ 520 __ 206 _ 98 _ 94 ___ 398 __ 918 ___120 _ 264 _198 __ 582 ____ 1500 (2500) Rhino16 (3/5) ____________ 138 _118 _120 __ 376 __ 133 _192 _ 126 ___ 451 __ 827 ___136 _ 246 _210 __ 592 ____ 1419 (2365) * (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, only affects rank relative to Consensus (would be tied) also, pro-rated scores for 3/5 entrants above would be just below field and above Normal. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________2*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 2 ____ 2 ______ 1 _May* rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 2* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2**__ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _Apr wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ______ 0 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 27 qualified (21 for warmest, 6 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 __ 8-2 ___8.0 - 1.5 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 __ 4-0 ___3.0 - 0 wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 __ 4-1 ___ 3.0 - 1 Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0__ 4-2 ___ 3.0 - 2 RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 3-0 Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0 Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0__ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0 wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 Rhino16 ______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 __ 1-1 RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-2 BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-1 Tom, swh ______________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0

+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 _ 97

A good turnout but as no action predicted in near future, I will extend deadline to 06z June 5, or late June 4 on your calendar. Edit up to deadline if you wish.

YEAR __ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN __JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT _ NOV _ DEC __ YEAR 1869 ___ 1.72 _ 1.39 _ 1.56 __9.56 _14.28 _20.72 _22.67 _22.11 _18.67 _10.50 _ 4.61 _ 1.50 __ 10.78 1870 ___ 3.06 _-0.39 _ 1.17 _10.39 _16.06 _22.72 _24.78 _24.06 _19.78 _13.72 _ 7.50 _ 1.17 __ 12.00 1871 ___-2.06 _-1.00 _ 6.78 _11.11 _15.78 _20.11 _22.39 _23.11 _16.00 _13.11 _ 3.78 _-1.56 __ 10.61 1872 ___-1.78 _-1.17 _-0.83 __9.67 _16.39 _21.78 _25.28 _24.22 _19.11 _11.78 _ 5.00 _-2.94 __ 10.56 1873 ___-1.89 _-1.39 _ 2.06 __8.17 _14.89 _21.28 _24.11 _22.22 _18.56 _13.22 _ 2.78 _ 2.50 __ 10.56 1874 ___ 1.22 _-0.39 _ 2.83 __5.06 _14.89 _21.17 _23.28 _21.28 _19.44 _12.83 _ 6.33 _ 1.00 __ 10.72 1875 ___-4.56 _-3.78 _ 1.17 __6.17 _15.61 _20.67 _23.33 _22.72 _17.78 _12.00 _ 4.06 _ 1.06 ___ 9.67 1876 ___ 2.56 _-0.11 _ 1.33 __8.33 _15.67 _23.06 _26.33 _24.00 _17.61 _10.33 _ 7.33 _-3.94 __ 11.06 1877 ___-2.39 _ 2.78 _ 2.11 __8.72 _15.33 _21.22 _23.89 _24.11 _19.39 _13.22 _ 6.94 _ 3.00 __ 11.56 1878 ___-0.94 _ 0.11 _ 6.72 _11.83 _15.22 _19.83 _25.44 _23.44 _20.17 _14.83 _ 6.56 _ 0.44 __ 12.00 1879 ___-2.83 _-2.22 _ 4.44 __9.11 _17.39 _21.22 _23.89 _22.22 _17.39 _15.72 _ 6.33 _ 2.94 __ 11.28 1880 ___ 4.00 _ 2.89 _ 2.50 _ 10.00 _19.94 _22.83 _23.83 _22.61 _19.50 _12.00 _ 3.72 _-3.06 __ 11.72 1881 ___-4.06 _-1.83 _ 2.61 __7.94 _16.83 _18.44 _23.17 _23.22 _23.00 _14.89 _ 7.33 _ 4.11 __ 11.33 1882 ___-1.78 _ 1.78 _ 4.67 __8.67 _13.67 _22.11 _24.33 _23.00 _19.50 _13.94 _ 4.00 _-0.78 __ 11.11 1883 ___-3.78 _-1.00 _ 0.39 __8.39 _16.17 _23.33 _23.61 _21.33 _17.00 _11.22 _ 6.50 _ 0.00 __ 10.28 1884 ___-4.06 _ 1.11 _ 3.17 __8.94 _15.44 _21.83 _22.17 _23.17 _22.22 _14.28 _ 6.83 _ 0.89 __ 11.33 1885 ___-1.44 _-5.17 _-0.78__9.67 _15.50 _21.67 _25.83 _22.44 _18.00 _12.28 _ 7.17 _ 2.06 __ 10.61 1886 ___-2.89 _-2.50 _ 3.11 _11.61 _15.67 _20.00 _23.78 _21.22 _18.50 _12.72 _ 7.00 _-1.33 __ 10.56 1887 ___-1.61 _ 0.00 _ 0.17 __7.94 _17.67 _20.89 _25.67 _21.11 _16.56 _11.22 _ 5.22 _ 1.00 __ 10.50 1888 ___-5.00 _-1.50 _-1.11 __7.78 _14.44 _21.61 _21.50 _22.56 _17.11 __9.22 _ 7.50 _ 1.50 ___ 9.61 1889 ___ 2.06 _-2.33 _ 4.28 _10.67 _17.50 _21.39 _22.89 _21.44 _18.44 __9.83 _ 7.06 _ 4.44 __ 11.50 1890 ___ 3.11 _ 3.28 _ 2.00 __9.50 _15.72 _21.17 _22.83 _22.61 _19.50 _12.50 _ 6.61 _-1.17 __ 11.50 1891 ___ 1.00 _ 2.50 _ 2.11 __9.83 _14.33 _21.89 _22.44 _24.17 _22.00 _12.61 _ 6.83 _ 5.72 __ 12.11 1892 ___-0.28 _ 0.78 _ 1.22 __9.33 _15.11 _23.06 _23.83 _23.50 _18.17 _11.67 _ 6.33 _ 0.11 __ 11.06 1893 ___-4.61 _-1.44 _ 1.94 __8.00 _14.56 _20.06 _23.11 _23.06 _17.39 _13.44 _ 6.06 _ 1.39 __ 10.22 1894 ___ 0.89 _-1.89 _ 6.00 __9.56 _16.06 _21.33 _23.89 _21.44 _20.44 _12.94 _ 5.28 _ 2.67 __ 11.56 1895 ___-1.22 _-4.39 _ 1.89 _ 10.06 _16.94 _22.72 _22.56 _24.22 _21.61 _11.39 _ 8.78 _ 3.39 __11.50 1896 ___-1.22 _-0.06 _ 0.33 _ 11.28 _19.44 _21.00 _24.89 _24.50 _19.61 _12.17 _ 9.94 _ 1.22 __ 11.94 1897 ___-0.67 _ 0.67 _ 4.89 _ 10.28 _16.39 _19.72 _24.39 _22.89 _19.44 _13.67 _ 7.78 _ 3.50 __ 11.89 1898 ___ 1.83 _ 2.11 _ 7.56 __ 8.72 _14.67 _21.78 _24.50 _24.06 _21.28 _15.28 _ 7.56 _ 1.44 __ 12.56 1899 ___-0.33 _-2.28 _ 3.28 __ 9.72 _16.83 _23.39 _24.56 _24.00 _18.94 _14.78 _ 7.78 _ 3.44 __ 12.00 1900 ___-0.11 _-0.94 _ 0.78 _ 10.00 _15.33 _21.39 _24.67 _24.56 _21.39 _16.28 _ 9.50 _ 2.39 __ 12.11 1901 ___ 0.28 _-3.17 _ 3.56 __ 8.78 _14.11 _21.44 _25.39 _23.89 _20.11 _13.28 _ 4.28 _ 2.06 __ 11.17 1902 ___-0.78 _-1.28 _ 6.89 _ 10.33 _14.94 _19.33 _22.67 _22.17 _19.28 _14.56 _10.89_ 0.28 __ 11.61 1903 ___-0.89 _ 0.67 _ 8.78 _ 11.11 _17.11 _17.89 _23.67 _20.61 _19.44 _14.44 _ 5.67 _-0.28 __ 11.50 1904 ___-3.72 _-3.67 _ 2.44 __ 8.11 _17.44 _21.22 _23.67 _22.78 _19.33 _12.11 _ 5.78 _-0.94 __ 10.39 1905 ___-1.50 _-4.00 _ 4.67 __ 9.94 _16.39 _21.06 _25.06 _23.50 _20.89 _15.22 _ 6.72 _ 3.83 __ 11.83 1906 ___ 3.56 _ 0.44 _ 2.00 _ 10.89 _17.28 _23.11 _25.06 _25.06 _21.17 _14.17 _ 7.50 _ 1.22 __ 12.61 1907 ___ 1.61 _-3.39 _ 5.83 __8.17 _13.44 _ 20.33 _25.22 _23.00 _19.39 _11.50 _ 7.89 _ 3.78 __ 11.39 1908 ___ 0.83 _-2.50 _ 5.22 _ 11.22 _17.44 _22.78 _26.56 _24.33 _20.33 _16.00 _ 8.22 _ 3.11 __ 12.78 1909 ___ 1.50 _ 3.17 _ 3.22 __ 9.11 _16.11 _22.28 _23.06 _22.33 _19.33 _12.50 _ 9.72 _ 0.22 __ 11.89 1910 ___-0.50 _-1.11 _ 6.11 _ 12.83 _16.11 _20.39 _25.11 _22.22 _20.78 _14.89 _ 5.72 _-1.11 __ 11.78 1911 ___ 2.39 _-0.39 _ 1.50 __8.78 _17.83 _21.00 _25.33 _22.67 _19.78 _13.44 _ 5.94 _ 4.11 __ 11.89 1912 ___-4.61 _-1.78 _ 3.11 _ 10.22 _16.83 _20.94 _24.28 _22.06 _19.22 _15.11 _ 8.78 _ 4.06 __ 11.50 1913 ___ 4.89 _-0.39 _ 7.11 _ 11.39 _15.94 _21.39 _24.50 _23.00 _18.11 _14.78 _ 8.50 _ 3.72 __ 12.78 1914 ___-0.28 _-3.67 _ 2.50 _ 8.83 _18.06 _20.50 _22.28 _23.67 _19.39 _15.22 _ 6.94 _-0.22 __ 11.11 1915 ___ 1.39 _ 2.17 _ 2.67 _ 12.44 _15.00 _20.00 _23.28 _22.00 _21.11 _14.28 _ 7.94 _ 0.83 __ 11.94 1916 ___ 2.22 _-2.28 _ 0.22 __ 9.11 _16.33 _18.72 _24.11 _23.78 _19.67 _ 14.28 _ 7.50 _ 1.11 __ 11.22 1917 ___ 0.50 _-2.06 _ 4.06 __ 9.11 _12.39 _21.28 _24.39 _24.56 _17.56 _11.67 _ 5.33 _-3.89 __ 10.39 1918 ___-5.72 _-0.89 _ 5.61 _ 10.39 _18.50 _19.89 _23.67 _24.72 _17.72 _15.00 _ 8.11 _ 4.11 __ 11.78 1919 ___ 2.00 _ 1.61 _ 6.28 _ 10.00 _16.67 _21.61 _23.94 _21.72 _19.78 _ 15.11 _ 7.33 _-1.00 __ 12.11 1920 ___-4.78 _-1.94 _ 4.39 __ 8.94 _14.89 _20.67 _23.22 _23.50 _20.28 _16.17 _6.89 _ 2.94 __ 11.28 1921 ___ 0.78 _ 1.11 _ 9.11 _ 13.39 _16.22 _21.78 _25.17 _22.00 _22.28 _13.50 _ 7.06 _ 0.28 __ 12.72 1922 ___-2.11 _ 0.89 _ 5.00 _ 10.83 _18.11 _22.11 _23.17 _22.44 _20.11 _14.56 _ 7.61 _ 0.89 __ 11.94 1923 ___-1.11 _-3.22 _ 2.67 _10.17 _15.56 _23.00 _23.22 _22.56 _20.17 _13.33 _ 7.33 _ 5.56 __ 11.61 1924 ___ 0.39 _-1.72 _ 4.00 __ 9.50 _14.06 _19.89 _23.39 _23.50 _17.83 _13.94 _ 6.89 _ 1.11 __ 11.06 1925 ___-2.00 _ 3.28 _ 6.78 _ 11.00 _15.33 _23.50 _23.11 _22.94 _20.44 _10.33 _6.61 _ 1.56 __ 11.89 1926 ___ 0.00 _-1.56 _ 2.06 __ 8.50 _15.61 _19.33 _23.94 _23.33 _18.72 _12.83 _ 7.17 _-1.72 __ 10.67 1927 ___-0.61 _ 2.44 _ 6.11 __ 9.22 _15.00 _19.61 _23.33 _20.28 _19.94 _15.33 _ 9.56 _ 2.61 __ 11.89 1928 ___ 1.11 _ 0.56 _ 3.78 __ 9.11 _15.22 _19.67 _24.39 _24.11 _ 18.17 _ 14.94 _ 8.56 _ 4.06 __ 12.00 1929 ___-0.06 _ 0.50 _ 7.28 _ 10.56 _16.50 _21.94 _24.39 _22.83 _20.78 _12.56 _7.89 _ 2.11 __ 12.28 1930 ___ 0.72 _ 2.78 _ 4.61 __ 9.11 _17.61 _23.06 _24.67 _23.11 _ 22.22 _ 13.11 _ 7.50 _ 1.44 __ 12.50 1931 ___ 0.44 _ 1.06 _ 4.61 _ 10.61 _16.39 _21.50 _25.28 _24.00 _22.39 _16.28 _11.06_ 5.00 __ 13.22 1932 ___ 6.22 _ 2.28 _ 2.94 __ 9.44 _16.67 _21.39 _24.50 _24.83 _20.83 _14.72 _6.61 _ 3.94 __ 12.89 1933 ___ 4.61 _ 1.17 _ 3.56 _ 10.22 _18.00 _22.44 _24.33 _23.83 _20.89 _13.39 _5.44 _ 0.39 __ 12.33 1934 ___ 1.50 _-6.72 _ 2.94 _ 10.17 _17.61 _23.22 _25.39 _22.22 _20.67 _12.50 _9.39 _ 0.78 __ 11.67 1935 ___-1.72 _-0.44 _ 6.33 __ 9.89 _15.50 _21.17 _25.11 _23.72 _18.50 _14.17 _ 9.22 _-1.11 __ 11.72 1936 ___-1.50 _-3.50 _ 7.33 __ 8.83 _18.00 _21.00 _24.56 _24.11 _20.11 _14.22 _ 5.94 _ 3.67 __ 11.89 1937 ___ 4.56 _ 1.56 _ 2.50 __ 9.78 _17.89 _22.11 _24.78 _24.78 _18.89 _13.00 _ 8.00 _ 1.89 __ 12.50 1938 ___ 0.06 _ 1.89 _ 6.78 _ 12.06 _16.00 _21.28 _24.78 _25.67 _18.89 _15.44 _9.06 _ 2.78 __ 12.89 1939 ___ 0.11 _ 2.78 _ 4.00 __ 9.06 _18.28 _22.78 _24.78 _25.61 _20.33 _14.06 _ 6.50 _ 2.72 __ 12.61 1940 ___-3.89 _ 0.50 _ 1.72 __ 8.22 _15.94 _21.33 _24.56 _21.89 _19.22 _12.11 _ 7.39 _ 3.56 __ 11.06 1941 ___-1.44 _-0.50 _ 2.17 _ 13.83 _18.22 _22.17 _24.33 _23.33 _21.11 _15.94 _10.00_ 3.50__ 12.72 1942 ___-0.72 _-1.28 _ 6.11 _ 12.11 _18.50 _21.67 _24.61 _23.11 _20.17 _14.89 _ 8.33 _-0.50 __ 12.28 1943 ___-0.67 _ 1.44 _ 4.56 __ 7.83 _17.00 _24.56 _24.94 _24.39 _19.67 _13.17 _ 7.44 _ 0.56 __ 12.06 1944 ___ 1.06 _ 0.67 _ 3.11 __ 9.39 _19.44 _22.39 _26.33 _25.44 _21.17 _13.94 _ 7.78 _ 0.22 __ 12.56 1945 ___-3.83 _ 1.06 _10.61_ 13.11 _15.11 _21.61 _23.67 _23.00 _21.28 _13.44 _ 8.67 _-0.56 __ 12.28 1946 ___ 1.17 _-0.17 _ 9.89 _ 10.22 _16.61 _20.94 _24.11 _21.61 _21.00 _16.50 _10.28_ 3.28 __ 12.94 1947 ___ 2.89 _-1.50 _ 3.22 _ 10.28 _15.50 _20.22 _24.17 _24.44 _20.33 _17.56 _ 6.78 _ 1.11 __ 12.11 1948 ___-3.67 _-0.72 _ 5.61 _ 10.56 _15.67 _20.78 _25.11 _24.00 _21.28 _13.72 _11.33_ 3.50 __ 12.28 1949 ___ 3.67 _ 3.67 _ 6.06 _ 12.11 _17.28 _23.50 _26.44 _24.83 _19.00 _17.28 _ 7.94 _ 4.11 _ 13.83 1950 ___ 5.22 _-0.22 _ 2.44 __ 9.17 _14.89 _21.28 _23.89 _22.83 _18.22 _15.56 _ 9.11 _ 1.67 __ 12.00 1951 ___ 2.50 _ 2.33 _ 5.28 _ 11.67 _17.39 _21.00 _24.89 _23.61 _20.11 _14.78 _ 6.39 _ 3.67 __ 12.78 1952 ___ 2.33 _ 2.33 _ 4.56 _ 12.78 _15.94 _23.11 _26.83 _23.83 _21.06 _13.17 _ 9.22 _ 3.56 _ 13.22 1953 ___ 3.11 _ 3.56 _ 6.33 _ 11.28 _17.44 _23.11 _25.44 _24.33 _21.33 _15.94 _ 9.83 _ 5.17 _ 13.89 1954 ___-0.67 _4.50 _ 5.33 _ 12.11 _15.44 _22.00 _24.83 _22.67 _19.67 _16.50 _ 8.00 _ 2.17 __ 12.72 1955 ___-0.56 _1.67 _ 5.39 _ 11.94 _18.56 _20.50 _27.17 _25.61 _19.89 _15.44 _ 6.83 _-1.28 __ 12.61 1956 ___ 0.00 _ 2.56 _ 3.00 __ 9.00 _14.83 _21.89 _22.72 _23.44 _18.22 _14.50 _ 8.17 _ 4.94 __ 11.94 1957 ___-1.94 _ 2.94 _ 5.50 _ 11.78 _17.28 _23.50 _25.39 _23.11 _20.94 _13.44 _9.67 _ 4.56 __ 13.00 1958 ___-0.06 _-2.56 _ 4.61 _ 11.61 _15.06 _19.56 _24.50 _24.00 _19.78 _13.06 _ 8.83 _-1.44 __ 11.39 1959 ___-0.50 _ 0.06 _ 4.50 _ 12.11 _19.11 _21.78 _24.61 _25.28 _22.39 _15.44 _ 7.67 _ 3.56 __ 13.00 1960 ___ 1.06 _ 2.39 _ 0.72 _ 12.28 _17.00 _22.11 _23.67 _23.83 _20.00 _14.50 _ 9.83 _-0.61 __ 12.22 1961 ___-2.39 _ 2.61 _ 5.28 __ 9.44 _15.50 _22.39 _25.61 _24.67 _23.11 _16.17 _ 9.33 _ 1.94 __ 12.83 1962 ___ 0.33 _-0.11 _ 6.17 _ 11.83 _18.06 _22.50 _23.33 _22.44 _18.28 _14.11 _ 6.22 _-0.28 __ 11.89 1963 ___-1.06 _-2.06 _ 6.50 _ 12.06 _16.17 _21.61 _24.67 _22.28 _17.28 _16.56 _10.22_-0.44 __ 12.00 1964 ___ 2.06 _ 0.50 _ 6.17 __ 9.83 _18.56 _22.00 _24.11 _22.72 _19.56 _12.78 _ 9.67 _ 2.44 __ 12.56 1965 ___-1.28 _ 1.06 _ 4.44 _ 10.33 _19.11 _21.17 _23.50 _22.89 _19.72 _14.06 _ 8.22 _ 4.72 __ 12.33 1966 ___ 0.11 _ 1.72 _ 5.94 __ 9.83 _16.44 _24.11 _26.50 _24.94 _19.17 _13.44 _ 9.39 _ 2.06 __ 12.83 1967 ___ 3.00 _-1.56 _ 3.11 __ 9.78 _12.89 _22.67 _24.06 _23.28 _19.28 _14.00 _ 5.83 _ 3.44 __ 11.67 1968 ___-2.94 _-1.72 _ 6.28 _ 12.78 _15.33 _20.94 _25.17 _24.44 _21.44 _15.83 _ 8.28 _1.28 __ 12.28 1969 ___-0.11 _ 0.33 _ 4.50 _ 13.28 _18.50 _22.83 _23.78 _25.22 _20.56 _14.28 _ 8.00 _ 0.78 __ 12.67 1970 ___-3.83 _ 0.56 _ 3.72 _ 11.17 _17.78 _21.61 _25.06 _25.33 _21.56 _14.94 _ 9.17 _ 1.33 __ 12.39 1971 ___-2.78 _ 1.72 _ 4.50 _ 10.44 _16.33 _23.44 _25.44 _24.39 _22.00 _17.06 _ 7.28 _4.89 _ 12.89 1972 ___ 1.72 _-0.33 _ 4.33 _ 10.06 _17.39 _19.94 _25.11 _24.22 _20.83 _11.94 _ 6.89 _ 3.61 __ 12.17 1973 ___ 1.94 _ 0.28 _ 8.00 _ 11.89 _15.28_23.00_25.22 _25.33 _20.83 _15.67 _ 9.06 _ 3.89 _ 13.39 1974 ___ 1.83 _-0.17 _ 5.61 _ 12.89 _16.11 _20.56 _25.11 _24.67 _19.28 _12.28 _ 9.00 _ 4.11 __ 12.61 1975 ___ 2.94 _ 2.11 _ 4.56 __ 8.83 _18.78 _21.39 _24.33 _23.56 _17.89 _15.11 _11.28 _ 2.17 __ 12.72 1976 ___-2.56 _ 4.39 _ 6.89 _ 12.78 _15.67 _22.89 _23.78 _23.50 _19.22 _11.61 _ 5.39 _-1.17 __ 11.89 1977 ___-5.50 _ 0.83 _ 8.22 _ 12.06 _18.33 _21.22 _26.11 _24.28 _20.11 _12.72 _ 8.50 _ 2.06 __ 12.39 1978 ___-2.22 _-2.67 _ 3.89 _ 10.89 _16.39 _21.83 _23.56 _24.44 _18.33 _12.72 _ 8.78 _ 3.83 __ 11.67 1979 ___ 0.89 _-3.61 _ 8.28 _ 11.44 _18.50 _20.67 _24.94 _24.89 _21.39 _14.06 _11.39 _ 5.06 __ 13.17 1980 ___ 0.94 _-0.33 _ 5.11 _ 12.50 _18.67 _21.28 _26.28 _26.83 _21.56 _12.89 _ 7.00 _ 0.28 __ 12.78 1981 ___-3.17 _ 4.06 _ 5.72 _ 13.44 _18.22 _22.78 _25.83 _24.44 _19.78 _12.44 _ 8.72 _ 2.50 __ 12.89 1982 ___-3.28 _ 1.83 _ 5.56 _ 10.67 _17.83 _20.33 _25.50 _22.89 _20.17 _14.72 _10.22_ 6.00 __ 12.72 1983 ___ 1.39 _ 2.44 _ 6.67 _ 11.28 _15.67 _23.00 _26.39 _25.39 _22.11 _14.39 _ 9.39 _ 1.78 __ 13.33 1984 ___-1.17 _ 4.78 _ 2.61 _ 11.06 _16.44 _23.61 _23.72 _24.83 _18.83 _16.56 _ 8.50 _ 6.56 __ 13.06 1985 ___-1.78 _ 2.56 _ 7.67 _ 13.06 _18.50 _20.33 _24.56 _24.11 _21.39 _15.28 _10.00_ 1.22 __ 13.06 1986 ___ 1.17 _ 0.00 _ 7.28 _ 12.50 _18.89 _22.00 _24.44 _22.83 _19.94 _14.44 _ 7.61 _ 3.89 __ 12.94 1987 ___ 0.17 _ 0.67 _ 7.33 _ 11.89 _17.56 _22.67 _25.56 _23.44 _19.94 _12.11 _ 8.72 _ 4.17 __ 12.83 1988 ___-1.39 _ 1.67 _ 6.44 _ 10.67 _17.06 _22.11 _26.28 _26.00 _19.67 _11.56 _ 9.67 _ 2.17 __ 12.67 1989 ___ 3.00 _ 1.39 _ 5.78 _ 11.22 _16.72 _22.22 _23.89 _23.33 _20.06 _14.56 _ 7.61 _-3.39 __ 12.22 1990 ___ 5.22 _ 4.33 _ 7.28 _ 11.94 _15.67 _22.28 _24.89 _24.06 _19.72 _16.61 _10.22_ 5.89 _ 14.00 1991 ___ 1.61 _ 4.44 _ 7.00 _ 13.17 _20.39 _23.39 _25.39 _25.06 _19.72 _14.67 _ 9.06 _ 4.22 _ 14.00 1992 ___ 2.06 _ 2.44 _ 4.44 _ 10.28 _16.11 _21.28 _23.44 _22.78 _19.56 _12.50 _ 8.06 _ 3.28 __ 12.17 1993 ___ 2.39 _-0.67 _ 4.28 _ 11.83 _18.72 _22.94 _26.78 _25.11 _19.61 _13.33 _ 9.33 _ 2.94 _ 13.06 1994 ___-3.56 _-0.78 _ 4.83 _ 13.11 _16.56 _24.00 _26.33 _23.33 _19.78 _14.44 _11.11_ 5.67 __ 12.89 1995 ___ 3.06 _-0.22 _ 7.22 _ 11.06 _16.61 _22.11 _26.22 _25.89 _20.17 _16.44 _ 6.44 _ 0.22 __ 12.94 1996 ___-0.83 _ 1.06 _ 3.83 _ 11.22 _16.17 _21.89 _23.00 _23.61 _20.00 _13.56 _ 6.11 _ 5.17 __ 12.06 1997 ___ 0.11 _ 4.44 _ 5.50 _ 10.94 _15.22 _21.61 _24.33 _22.94 _19.44 _13.78 _ 6.94 _ 3.50 __ 12.39 1998 ___ 4.44 _ 4.78 _ 7.44 _ 12.22 _17.94 _20.67 _24.72 _24.83 _21.22 _14.22 _ 8.94 _ 6.22 _ 14.00 1999 ___ 1.06 _ 3.83 _ 5.83 _ 11.94 _17.28 _22.89 _27.44 _24.17 _20.61 _13.33 _10.33_ 4.44 __ 13.61 2000 ___-0.39 _ 2.94 _ 8.44 _ 10.56 _17.50 _21.83 _22.39 _22.61 _18.89 _13.89 _ 7.39 _-0.50 __ 12.17 2001 ___ 0.89 _ 2.17 _ 4.22 _ 12.33 _17.67 _22.72 _22.89 _25.94 _19.83 _14.72 _11.50 _ 6.72 __ 13.50 2002 ___ 4.39 _ 4.78 _ 6.72 _ 13.39 _15.94 _21.89 _26.00 _25.39 _21.22 _12.89 _ 7.78 _ 2.22 __ 13.56 2003 ___-2.50 _-1.06 _ 6.17 __ 9.89 _14.83 _20.17 _24.33 _24.83 _19.94 _12.83 _10.00_ 3.11 __ 11.89 2004 ___-4.06 _ 1.67 _ 6.39 _ 12.00 _18.44 _21.78 _23.61 _23.44 _20.72 _13.33 _ 9.00 _ 3.56 _ 12.50 2005 ___-0.39 _ 2.50 _ 4.11 _ 12.83 _14.94 _23.33 _25.28 _26.50 _22.94 _14.39 _ 9.78 _ 1.83 _ 13.22 2006 ___ 4.94 _ 2.06 _ 6.17 _ 13.17 _17.28 _21.67 _25.50 _24.33 _19.22 _13.44 _11.06_ 6.44 __ 13.78 2007 ___ 3.06 _-2.11 _ 5.67 _ 10.17 _18.44 _21.89 _23.89 _23.33 _21.28 _17.56 _ 7.44 _ 2.78 __ 12.78 2008 ___ 2.50 _ 2.11 _ 5.89 _ 12.72 _15.61 _23.33 _25.78 _23.22 _20.44 _12.83 _ 7.67 _ 3.39 __ 12.94 2009 ___-2.28 _ 2.61 _ 5.78 _ 12.50 _16.94 _19.72 _22.61 _24.28 _19.06 _12.78 _10.67_ 2.17 __ 12.22 2010 ___ 0.28 _ 0.61 _ 9.00 _ 14.39 _18.50 _23.72 _27.39 _25.22 _21.72 _14.50 _ 8.83 _ 0.44 _ 13.72 2011 ___-1.28 _ 2.22 _ 5.72 _ 12.39 _18.06 _22.39 _26.78 _24.06 _21.11 _13.94 _11.06_ 6.28 __ 13.56 2012 ___ 2.94 _ 4.94 _10.50_ 12.67 _18.39 _21.67 _26.00 _24.83 _20.44 _14.44 _6.61 _ 5.28 __ 14.06 2013 ___ 1.72 _ 1.06 _ 4.50 _ 11.67 _17.11 _22.61 _26.56 _23.67 _19.94 _15.67 _ 7.39 _ 3.61 __ 12.94 2014 ___-1.89 _-0.22 _ 3.17 _ 11.28 _17.78 _22.50 _24.50 _23.61 _20.94 _15.33 _ 7.39 _ 4.72 __ 12.44 2015 ___-1.17 _-4.50 _ 3.39 _ 12.39 _20.28 _21.78 _26.00 _26.11 _23.61 _14.44 _11.56_10.44__ 13.72 2016 ___ 1.39 _ 3.17 _ 9.39 _ 11.83 _17.11 _22.39 _25.94 _26.22 _22.11 _14.89 _ 9.89 _ 3.50 __ 14.00 2017 ___ 3.33 _ 5.33 _ 4.00 _ 14.00 _16.17 _22.22 _24.89 _23.33 _21.39 _17.83 _ 8.11 _ 0.78 __ 13.50 2018 ___-0.17 _ 5.56 _ 4.50 __ 9.72 _19.39 _22.06 _25.33 _25.61 _21.50 _14.28 _ 6.89 _ 4.50 __ 13.28 2019 ___ 0.28 _ 2.33 _ 5.39 _ 13.06 _16.78 _22.06 _26.44 _24.17 _21.33 _15.50 _ 6.61 _ 3.50 __ 13.11 2020 ___ 3.94 _ 4.50 _ 8.89 _ 10.22 _15.72 _23.17 _26.67 _24.94 _20.44 _14.39 _11.67 _ 4.00 __14.06 2021 ___ 1.56 _ 1.22 _ 7.67 _ 12.56 _ 17.17_23.50 _24.44 _25.28_ 21.28 _16.67 _ 7.89 _ 6.56 ___13.83 2022 ___ -0.94 _ 2.94 _7.39 _ 11.56 _17.78 _21.89_ 26.39 _26.28 _20.83 _13.83 _10.50 _ 3.61 __13.50 2023 ___ 6.39 _ 5.06 _ 7.00 _ 14.22 _ 17.06 _21.11 _26.11 _23.33 _20.78 _15.83 _ 8.17 _ 7.00 __ 14.44 2024 ___ 2.78 _ 4.50 _ 8.94 _ 13.18 top 1/3 of data ... 52nd __ 1.22 _ 1.83 _ 5.94 _ 11.67 _ 17.39 _22.17 _25.11 _24.22 _20.67 _14.72 _8.78 _ 3.56 __ 12.72 ================== I looked into the question of long runs of above average months. Based on runs of top one-third of all data (bold in table), closer to median Nov 2023 disqualified recent interval of Sep 2023 to present, and on basis of top third, longest runs showing the gradual increasing duration were: 3 (Dec 1889 to Feb 1890, Jan-Mar 1898) 4 (Aug-Nov 1900, May-Aug 1908, Oct 1912-Jan 1913) 6 (Sep 1931 - Feb 1932) 8 (May - Dec 1953, June 1973 - Jan 1974) 11 (Oct 1990 to Aug 1991) since then, longest run was seven months, on two occasions, Oct 2001- Apr 2002 and Mar-Sep 2010. The current interruption (or disqualification) by Nov 2023 is similar to 1949 losing a run of eight (Jan - Aug) to a near miss by May 1949, or ten if you also count Dec 1948. Also April 2015 to Nov 2016 was broken up by three relatively average months. Against some normal values it could be a 20-month period of warmth.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z June 1st (early Saturday in EDT) Add on your predictions for summer 2024 max values (same locations)

Final scoring for May 2024 ... scores are based on final anomalies posted in previous post. Underlined scores are adjusted 1 or 2 down for late penalties. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west___ TOTAL wxallannj _________________98 _ 98 _ 90 __286 __ 68 _ 86 _ 86 __240 _526 _ 54 _ 76 _82 __212 ___ 738 Stormchaser Chuck ______82 _ 74 _ 70 __ 226 __ 96 _ 98 _ 94 __288 _514 _ 58 _ 74 _ 62 __ 194 ___ 708 Scotty Lightning __ (-1%) _97 _ 93 _ 93 __ 283 __ 36 _ 67 _ 87 __190 _ 473 _ 69 _ 83 _ 61 __ 213 __ 686 Tom ______________________ 88 _ 98 _ 92 __ 278 __ 52 _ 70 _ 76 __198 _ 476 _ 76 _ 78 _ 50 __ 204 __ 680 RJay ______________________98 _ 96 _ 84 __ 278__ 56 _ 68 _ 98 __222 _500 _ 50 _ 84 _ 42 __ 176 ___676 ___ Consensus ____________90 _ 96 _ 92 __ 278 __ 46 _ 62 _ 88 __196 _ 474 _ 72 _ 76 _ 52 __ 200 __ 674 rhino16 ___________________ 88 _ 96 _ 84 __ 268 __ 30 _ 74 _ 70 __174 _ 442 _ 88 _ 88 _ 54 __ 230 __ 672 wxdude64 _______(-1%) ___89 _ 93 _ 95 __ 277 __ 34 _ 51 _ 85 __170 __ 447 _ 81 _ 53 _ 77 __ 211 __ 658 rainsucks _________________92 _ 94 _ 94 __ 280 __ 56 _ 68 _ 84 __208 _488 _ 60 _ 64 _ 42 __166 __ 654 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 76 _ 84 _ 90 __ 250 __ 60 _ 64 _ 86 __210 _460 _ 74 _ 70 _ 38 __ 182 __ 642 BKViking ________(-2%) ___ 88 _ 98 _ 90 __ 276 __ 37 _ 59 _ 67 __163 _439 _ 78 _ 73 _ 51 __ 202 __ 641 so_whats_happening _____ 82 _ 84 _ 92 __ 258 __ 32 _ 62 _ 86 __180 _ 438 _ 60 _ 70 _ 66 __ 196 __ 634 DonSutherland1 ___________80 _ 88 _ 96 __ 264 __ 32 _ 56 _ 76 __164 _428 _ 80 _ 74 _ 48 __ 202 __ 630 Roger Smith ______________ 72 _ 58 _ 56 __ 186 __ 76 _ 98 _ 92 __266 _452 _ 50 _ 84 _ 42 __176 ___ 628 RodneyS __________________74 _ 70 _ 64 __ 208 __ 02 _ 60 _ 90 __ 152 _360 _ 92 _ 58 _ 80 __ 230 __ 590 ___ Normal ________________58 _ 64 _ 74 __ 196 __ 16 _ 38 _ 58 __ 112 __308 _ 90 _ 64 _ 62 __ 216 __ 524 Persistence (Apr 2024)___ 96 _ 98 _ 94 __ 288 __ 76 _ 82 _ 86 __ 244 _532 _ 36 _ 80 _ 84 __ 200 __ 732 =========================== Extreme forecasts ORD (+4.2), ATL (+3.1) are both wins for Stormchaser Chuck with high forecasts (+4.0, +3.0); shared win for ATL with Roger S. PHX (+1.8) is also a win for high forecast by Rhino16 (+1.2). DEN (-0.5) and SEA (-1.9) are wins for low forecasts, RodneyS (-0.1) DEN and wxallannj (-1.0) SEA. (Persistence would have a win for cold (-1.1) at SEA but we don't track persistence in this aspect). ... ... annual update will follow later today or early Sunday (going slow today). ----------------------------- (forecasts) Roger Smith ______________+3.5 _+4.0 _+3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______+3.0 _+3.2 _+2.8 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.4 __ +1.6 _+0.5 __ 0.0 wxallannj _________________ +2.2 _+2.0 _+1.8 __ +2.6 _+2.4 _+2.8 __ +1.8 _+0.6 _ -1.0 RJay ______________________+2.0 _+2.1 _+2.1 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 Scotty Lightning __ (-1%) _+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 rainsucks _________________+1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___+1.5 __0.0 _ +1.0 BKViking ________(-2%) ____+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.5 __ +0.9 _+0.6 _+0.5 wxdude64 _______(-1%) ____+1.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.4 __ +0.4 _-0.5 _-0.8 rhino16 ___________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 __ +0.7 _+1.8 _ +0.6 __ +0.1 _+1.2 _+0.4 Tom _______________________+1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.7 _+0.6 so_whats_happening ______+1.2 _ +1.0 _+0.9 __ +0.8 _ +1.2 _+1.4 __ +1.5 _ +0.3 _-0.2 DonSutherland1 ___________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.7 hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ +2.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ +0.8 _+0.3 _+1.2 RodneyS __________________+0.8 _+0.3 _ -0.5 __ -0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.6 ___ -0.1 _ -0.3 _ -0.9 ___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence (Apr 2024)___+2.3 _ +1.9 _+0.2 ___+3.0 _+2.2_+2.8 ____+2.7 _+0.8 _-1.1

anomalies and projections ... ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA anom to 15 ______ +1.1 __ -0.4 __ -1.4 ____+4.5 _ +3.9 _ +2.1 ____ -1.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.9 p anom (31) _____ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ -0.5 ____+4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 _____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.5 p anom (31) _____ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +0.5 ____+4.0 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 _____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ -1.5 final anoms ______+2.1 __ +1.8 _ +1.3 ____ +4.2 _ +3.1 _ +1.9 _____ -0.5 _ +1.8 _ -1.9 (16) Projections are based on a slight warming trend in northeast, continued warm regime central and southeast, near normal (variable) west. (June 1) Final anomalies are posted, scoring will be updated later today.

24/11/4

Any clearing in store for you later (after midnite possibly)? Western Europe seeing major (historic) display of aurora borealis (now). Clear out west, but six hours to dark skies.

Probably a final report but could be edited for DEN, cannot affect outcome as RodneyS has more to spare at DEN than anyone else. Congrats to RodneyS (subject to final verification). DonS second and hudsonvalley21 third. *** __ 2023-2024 Winter Snowfall Contest __ *** Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV wxdude64 ____________________________22.9 _ 30.2 _ 44.6 __ 22.2 _ 31.5 _ 88.3 ___ 54.3 __ 7.8 __ 71.4 RJay _________________________________ 22.0 _ 30.0 _ 44.0 __ 20.0 _ 25.0 _ 99.0 ___ 61.0 __ 4.0 __ 80.0 BKViking _____________________________ 19.0 _ 28.0 _ 37.0 __ 20.0 _ 17.0 __ 95.0 ___ 59.0 __ 4.1 __ 86.0 wxallannj _____________________________ 19.0 _ 27.0 _ 30.0 __ 38.0 _ 35.0 _ 97.0 ___ 41.0 __ 9.0 __ 75.0 Tom ___________________________________18.7 _ 32.6 _ 44.7 __ 37.2 _ 34.6 _ 97.8 ___ 51.6 __ 4.1 __ 73.2 Roger Smith __________________________ 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 _ 89.2 ___ 45.0 __ 3.0 __79.3 ___ Consensus ____ (median) __________18.5 _ 27.0 _ 37.0 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 89.2 ___ 54.3 __ 4.1 __ 77.0 so_whats_happening __________________18.0 _ 26.0 _ 41.0 __ 28.0 _ 35.0 _ 78.0 ___ 40.0 __ 7.0 __ 87.0 Scotty Lightning ______________________ 16.0 _ 21.0 _ 33.0 __ 43.0 _ 31.0 _103.0 ___ 41.0 __ 5.0 __ 86.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 12.0 _ 31.0 _ 30.5 __ 33.5 _ 32.5 _ 68.5 ___ 59.5 __ 5.5 __ 77.0 DonSutherland1 _______________________ 11.5 _ 15.0 _ 27.5 ___27.0 _ 38.5 _ 85.0 ___ 56.5 __ 1.2 ___70.0 RodneyS _______________________________ 6.7 _ 12.9 _ 24.3 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 79.9 ___ 65.4 __ 3.9 __ 64.3 Snowfall to date _ (05-07) ____________ 8.0 __ 7.5 ___ 9.8 ___ 22.2 _ 23.5 _ 71.3 ___ 44.6 ___0.3 __ 60.8 ------------------------------------- Snowfall errors to date (in most cases, error is an overprediction and can be reduced by future snowfall, exceptions are underlined and these errors can increase) ... Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total (rank) RodneyS _______________________________ 1.3 __ 5.4 _ 14.5 ___ 7.8 __ 11.0 __ 8.6 ____20.8 __ 3.6 __ 3.5____ 76.5 (1) DonSutherland1 ________________________3.5 __ 7.5 __ 17.7 ___ 4.8 _ 15.0 _ 13.7 ____ 11.9 __ 0.9 ___ 9.2____ 84.2 (2) hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 4.0 _ 23.5 _ 20.7 __ 11.3 __ 9.0 _ 2.8 _____ 14.9 __ 5.2 __16.2 ___ 107.6 (3) so_whats_happening __________________10.0 _ 18.5 _ 31.2 ___ 5.8 _ 11.5 ___ 6.7 ____ 4.6 __ 6.7 __ 26.2 ___ 121.2 (4) ___ Consensus ____ (median) __________10.5 _ 19.5 _ 27.2 ___ 7.8 _ 11.0 __ 17.9 ____ 9.7 __ 3.8 __ 16.2 ___ 123.6 (4.6) wxdude64 ____________________________14.9 _ 22.7 _ 34.8 ___ 0.0 __ 8.0 _ 17.0 ____ 9.7 __ 7.5 __ 10.6 ___ 125.2 (5) wxallannj _____________________________ 11.0 _ 19.5 _ 20.2 __ 15.8 _ 11.5 __ 25.7 ____3.6 __ 8.7 __ 14.2 ___ 130.2 (6) BKViking _____________________________ 11.0 _ 20.5 _ 27.2 ___ 2.2 __ 6.5 __ 23.7 __ 14.4 __ 3.8 __ 25.2 ___ 134.5 (7) Scotty Lightning _______________________ 8.0 _ 13.5 _ 23.2 __ 20.8 __7.5 __31.7 ____ 3.6 __ 4.7 __ 25.2 ___ 138.2 (8) RJay __________________________________ 14.0 _ 22.5 _ 34.2 ___ 2.2 __ 1.5 _ 27.7 ___ 16.4 __ 3.7 __ 19.2 ___ 141.4 (9) Tom ___________________________________ 10.7 _ 25.1 _ 34.9 __ 15.0 _ 11.1 __ 26.5 ___ 7.0 __ 3.8 __ 12.4 ___ 146.5 (10) Roger Smith ___________________________ 10.5 _ 26.3 _ 44.3 __ 18.1 _24.9 _ 17.9 ____ 0.4 __ 2.7 __ 18.5 ___ 163.6 (11) ======================================

As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 103, 105, 106 and 107. Contest deadline 06z June 15 2024 Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 2nd beats June 4th. ___ DEFENDING 2023 WINNER: WEATHER53 ___

It's that time again ... enter your forecast for seasonal totals of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (in the North Atlantic basin) ... using NOAA official counts as our contest guide. Include any named storms already in the books by 06z June 5th in your total (as of now, count is 0/0/0). 1991-2020 average values 14/7/3 ... 2024 seasonal forecasts from various experts average 22/11/5 (so far). I will include a few of these as of June 1st as non-entries for ranking against our forecasts (without changing our contest ranks). I extended the entry deadline based on the situation to 06z June 5th. You can edit or revise any entries up to final deadline, no need to bring attention to edits as I won't be trying to create a table of entries until deadline is passed. Boards.ie weather forum and Net-weather (UK) will be invited to participate. Ranks will be provided (a) over all entries and (b) within forums, or fora if anyone here is a Latin purist. Good luck !

In Las Vegas (waiting for flight), strong sun makes 90 feel like 125. Supposed to be strong winds by 6 or 7 p m, hoping to be airborne before they do a ground stop.

Table of forecasts for May 2024 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith ______________+3.5 _+4.0 _+3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______+3.0 _+3.2 _+2.8 __ +4.0 _+3.0 _+2.4 __ +1.6 _+0.5 __ 0.0 wxallannj _________________ +2.2 _+2.0 _+1.8 __ +2.6 _+2.4 _+2.8 __ +1.8 _+0.6 _ -1.0 RJay ______________________+2.0 _+2.1 _+2.1 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 Scotty Lightning __ (-1%) _+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 rainsucks _________________+1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___+1.5 __0.0 _ +1.0 BKViking ________(-2%) ____+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 __ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ Consensus ____________ +1.6 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __ +1.5 _+1.2 _+1.5 __ +0.9 _+0.6 _+0.5 wxdude64 _______(-1%) ____+1.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _+0.7 _+1.4 __ +0.4 _ -0.5 _-0.8 rhino16 ___________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.1 __ +0.7 _+1.8 _ +0.6 __ +0.1 _+1.2 _+0.4 Tom _______________________+1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.7 _+0.6 so_whats_happening ______+1.2 _ +1.0 _+0.9 __ +0.8 _ +1.2 _+1.4 __ +1.5 _ +0.3 _-0.2 DonSutherland1 ___________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.7 hudsonvalley21 ___________+0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ +2.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ +0.8 _+0.3 _+1.2 RodneyS __________________+0.8 _+0.3 _ -0.5 __ -0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.6 ___ -0.1 _ -0.3 _ -0.9 ___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Persistence (Apr 2024)___+2.3 _ +1.9 _+0.2 ___+3.0 _+2.2_+2.8 ____+2.7 _+0.8 _-1.1 ___________________________________ Normal lowest for DCA, ATL, IAH.

Quickly finished scoring updates, they will need quality control when I have a chance, scoring generally very high for April, several over 700 and two over 770. Enjoying trip to Utah and will be flying back to BC on 4th.

+3.5 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0

Jacob Lake AZ north of Grand Canyon at 8,000' elevation had about 2-3" new snow late Friday, we drove through that area Saturday and it was barely above freezing but at lower elevations it was 55-60 F with a few leftover rain showers and sunny breaks. It has cleared out totally now in Kanab UT and looking for 70-75 F highs on Sunday. Saw two rare condors near Lees Ferry AZ, nine foot wingspans, prehistoric looking.

On vacation in Las Vegas and s Utah since Tuesday, gradual cooling trend ended with rain and gusty winds today, hot to warm to very cool, now just 40F at Kanab, UT (was 90F on Tues in Vegas). Both LAS and SLC set daily rainfall records, at 0.23" Vegas to 0.82" SLC. I think gradient of rainfall in between was fairly linear so about 0.4" fell in parts of s Utah. It is the first significant rain in Vegas and s UT since winter ended but the wet winter resulted in very good desert blooming, saw lots of flowering cactus on display at Desert National Wildlife Refuge located about ten miles north of Vegas outer suburbs on US95, if you get a chance it's a very interesting area, as is nearby Red Rock Canyon and Fire Valley State Park. Going to various national parks in UT now but in most cases have visited before so we know what to expect (life elevated).

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z May 1st (early Wednesday in EDT)

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Apr 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 294 _274 _294 __ 862 __246 _316 _218 __780 _1642 __294 _368 _342 _1004____ 2646 rainsucks _______________352 _358 _276 __986__ 243 _274 _234 __ 751 _1737 __174 _302 _284 __ 760 ____ 2497 ___ Consensus _________ 268 _250_276 __794 __266_288 _218 __772 _1566 __208 _344 _324 __876____ 2442 DonSutherland1 ________284 _292 _294 __ 870 __ 284 _268 _180 __ 732 _1602 __248 _310 _262 __820 ____ 2422 RJay ____________________291 _298 _249 __ 838 __257 _282 _174 __ 713 _1551 __ 238 _309 _295 __842 ____ 2393 (2440)* so_whats_happening ___ 258 _256 _288 __ 802 __279 _256 _166 __ 701 _1503 __244 _290 _318 __852 ____ 2355 hudsonvalley21 _________278 _204 _222 __ 704 __254 _286 _250 __ 790 _1494 __216 _276 _298 __790 ____ 2284 BKViking ________________272 _250 _284 __ 806 __204 _260 _194 __ 658 _1464 __194 _328 _294 __816 ____ 2280 RodneyS ________________162 _236 _282 __ 680 __193 _216 _230 __ 639 _ 1319 __ 262 _284 _316 __862 ____ 2181 Tom _____________________218 _198 _226 __ 642 __198 _256 _206 __ 660 _1302 __ 170 _314 _312 __ 796 ____ 2098 Scotty Lightning ________214 _156 _ 188 __ 558 __148 _292 _236 __ 676 _1234 __ 214 _292 _330 __836 ____ 2070 Roger Smith _____________224 _202 _136 __ 562 __244 _267 _218 __729 _ 1291 __184 _290 _230 __ 704 ____ 1995 wxdude64 _______________160 _170 _236 __ 566 __190 _208 _154 __ 552 _ 1118 __ 226 _310 _302 __ 838 ____ 1956 Normal __________________134 _ 112 _ 190 __ 436 __ 118 _226 _146 __490 _ 926 __ 174 _310 _350 __ 834 ____ 1760 Persistence _____________ 282 _244 _282 __ 808 __ 070 _224 _174 __468 _ 1276 _ 042 _156 _256 __ 454 ____ 1730 Stormchaser Chuck (2/4)_68 _ 98 _ 128 __ 294 __ 110 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 110 __ 404 ___ 62 _ 190 _ 136 __ 388 ____ 792 Rhino16 (2/4) ____________ 50 _ 22 _ 36 ___ 108 __ 103 _118 _ 56 ___ 277 __ 385 ___ 48 _ 158 _ 156 __ 362 ____ 747 * (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would affect ranks by two positions) ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2** __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___1 ____ 2 ______ 0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 RJay _____________________0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 1* __ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _Apr wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0 EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 22 qualified (18 for warmest, 4 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. (April provisional, to be adjusted) FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr ___ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* ___8-2 ___8.0 - 1.5 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0__ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 __ 3-1 ___ 2.0 - 1 Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 ___ 3-2 ___ 2.5 - 2 Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0 RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0 ___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 ___ 1-1 RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 ___ 1-2 BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1 Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-2 Tom, Rhino16, swh _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0

Final scoring for April 2024 (final values) ________________________________+2.3 _+1.9 _+0.2 ____ +3.0 _+2.2 _+2.9__________ +2.7 _+0.8 _-1.1 FORECASTER _________________________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west ___ TOTAL Roger Smith __________________________ 94 _ 94 _ 54 __ 242 __ 86 _ 98 _100__ 284 _ 526 _ 98 _ 96 _ 74 __ 268 ____ 794 wxallannj ______________________________98 _ 90 _ 52 __ 240 __ 96 _ 94 _ 68 __ 258 _ 498 _ 94 _ 94 _ 88 __ 276 ____ 774 Tom ___________________________________86 _ 98 _ 68 __ 252 __ 82 _ 80 _ 74 __ 236 _ 488 _ 64 _ 96 _ 74 __ 234 ____ 722 Scotty Lightning _______________________84 _ 82 _ 84 __ 250 __ 70 _ 96 _ 84 __ 250 _ 500 _ 86 _ 76 _ 48 __ 210 ____ 710 ___ Consensus ________________________ 86 _ 96 _ 66 __ 248 __ 82 _ 80 _ 74 __ 236 _ 484 _ 66 _ 92 _ 66 __ 224 ____ 708 RJay __________________________________ 94 _ 98 _64 __ 256 __ 80 _ 76 _ 64 __ 220 _ 476 _ 66 _ 84 _ 78 __ 228 ____ 704 BKViking ______________________________ 84 _ 94 _ 74 __ 252 __ 78 _ 76 _ 74 __ 228 _ 480 _ 50 _ 96 _ 60 __ 206 ____ 686 rainsucks _____________________________ 76 _ 64 _ 34 __ 174 __ 90 _ 94 _ 86 __ 270 _ 444 _ 94 _ 96 _ 48 __ 238 ____ 682 so_whats_happening __________________80 _ 94 _ 64 __ 238 __ 92 _ 76 _ 60 __ 228 _ 466 _ 62 _ 84 _ 70 __ 216 ____ 682 hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 84 _ 54 _ 22 __ 160 __ 96 _ 98 _ 96 __ 290 _ 450 _100_ 70 _ 20 __ 190 ____ 640 DonSutherland1 _______________________ 84 _ 92 _ 80 __ 256 __ 74 _ 62 _ 44 __ 180 _ 436 _ 56 _ 68 _ 62 __ 186 ____ 622 wxdude64 _____________________________76 _ 82 _ 84 __ 242 __ 60 _ 58 _ 46 __ 164 _ 406 _ 58 _ 88 _ 60 __ 206 ____ 612 ___ Normal _____________________________54 _ 62 _ 96 __ 212 __ 40 _ 56 _ 44 __ 140 _ 352 _ 46 _ 84 _ 78 __ 208 ____ 560 RodneyS _______________________________48 _ 84 _ 86 __ 218 __ 38 _ 52 _ 66 __ 156 _ 374 _ 58 _ 46 _ 82 __ 186 ____ 560 Persistence ____________________________60 _ 32 _ 30 __ 122 __ 60 _ 80 _100__ 240 _ 352 _ 42 _ 60 _ 76 __ 178 ____ 530 ===================== Extreme forecasts _ BOS (+0.2) is a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.9), and also a win for Normal. _ ORD (+3.0) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+3.2) and wxallannj (+2.8) and a loss for rainsucks (+3.5). _ ATL (+2.2) is a shared win for hudsonvalley21 and Roger S (+2.1) and a shared loss for wxallannj and rainsucks (+2.5) _ IAH (+2.8) is a win for Roger Smith (+2.8) _DEN (+2.7) is a win hudsonvalley21 at +2.7, and a loss for Roger S (+2.8). _SEA (-1.1) is a win for wxallannj (-0.5). NOTE: will require quality control, I did work just before leaving for day of touring Zion NP, will revisit next two days.

At the halfway point updated to Apr 24 ... anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ______ (15d anom) ________+2.9 _ +3.3 _ +1.6 ___ +3.9 _ +1.9 _ +3.7 ___ +4.8 _ -2.7 _ -0.6 ______ (24d anom) ________+2.3 _ +2.0 _ +0.9 ___ +2.4 _ +1.9 _ +2.6 ___ +2.9 _ +0.9 _ -0.3 16 ___(p30d anom) _______+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.5 ___ +4.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 25 ____(p30d anom) _______+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.5 ___ +3.0 __+1.0 _ -0.5 final anomalies ___________ +2.3 _ +1.9 _ +0.2 ___ +3.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.8 ___ +2.7 __+0.8 _ -1.1 (Apr 16) _ Projections are based on a rather cool second half pattern in east and PAC NW, very warm southwest US to Texas, continued warm DEN) (Apr 25) _ Projections updated, only a few slight changes. Apr 15 _ Updates to snowfall contest will appear later (noted in last table posted in last month's contest thread). (a few increases since 1st Apr for 9.8 BOS, 22.2 ORD, 23.5 DTW, 71.3 BUF, 38.3 DEN, 60.8 BTV) By Apr 30 ... DEN 44.6 (no other changes)