Roger Smith

FLORIDA EXTREME COLD WARNING __ Temperatures may drop below 60 degrees. You may need a sweater or a light jacket. DON'T RISK YOUR LIFE pack a sweater or jacket.

__ Table of scoring for January 2026 __ FORECASTER ____________________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL Roger Smith ______________________ 66 _ 90 _ 80 _236 _ 64 _ 92 _ 78 _ 234 _470 _ 64 _ 84 _ 92 _240___710 wxdude64 ________________________ 58 _ 78 _ 92 _228 _ 70 _ 80 _ 94 _ 244 _ 472 _ 68 _ 56 _ 86 _210 ___682 Tom ______________________________ 54 _ 84 _ 90 _228 _ 86 _ 76 _ 96 _ 258 _ 486 _ 60 _ 38 _ 96 _194 ___680 StormchaserChuck1 ______________ 44 _ 38 _ 96 _ 178 _ 84 _ 88 _ 64 _ 236 _414 _ 76 _ 84 _ 98 _ 258 ___672 BKViking _________________________ 46 _ 62 _ 86 _ 194 _ 66 _ 90 _ 98 _254 _448 _ 56 _ 46 _ 80 _182 ___630 dmillz25 __________________________56 _ 84 _ 92 _232 _ 24 _ 74 _ 68 _ 166 _ 398 _ 94 _ 54 _ 82 _230 ___628 so_whats_happening _____________38 _ 54 _ 96 _ 188 _ 44 _ 76 _ 80 _ 200 _388 _ 84 _ 46 _ 92 _222 ___610 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 42 _ 38 _ 90 _ 170 _ 64 _ 94 _ 80 _ 238 _408 _ 40 _ 56 _ 92 _ 188 ___596 ___ consensus __________________ 28 _ 58 _ 90 _ 176 _ 40 _ 76 _ 86 _ 202 _ 378 _ 68 _ 46 _ 94 _208 ___586 DonSutherland1 __________________ 44 _ 52 _ 98 _ 194 _ 38 _ 64 _ 42 _ 144 _338 _ 86 _ 68 _ 72 _226 ___564 wxallannj _________________________ 06 _ 42 _ 76 _ 124 _ 42 _ 58 _ 74 _ 174 _ 298 _ 86 _ 46 _ 98 _230 ___528 (Persistence _ see below) _ 500 ____ Normal _______________________16 _ 34 _ 62 _ 112 _ 34 _ 92 _ 82 _ 208 _320 _ 46 _ 14 _ 88 _ 148 ___468 Scotty Lightning _________________ 00 _ 14 _ 72 _ 086 _ 24 _ 78 _ 88 _ 190 _276 _ 56 _ 34 _ 98 _ 188 ___464 RodneyS _________________________ 30 _ 46 _ 72 _ 148 _ 28 _ 54 _ 52 _ 134 _282 _ 56 _ 28 _ 96 _ 180 ___462 RJay ______________________________16 _ 34 _ 62 _ 112 _ 34 _ 48 _ 38 _ 120 _232 _ 66 _ 64 _ 88 _218 ___450 Rhino16 __________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 32 _032 _ 38 _ 38 _ 48 _ 124 _156 _ 38 _ 00 _ 82 _120 ___276 ============================== Persistence (Dec 2025) __________ 96 _ 60 _ 50 _ 206 _ 96 _ 74 _ 38 _ 208 _ 414 _ 00 _ 38 _ 48 _ 086 ___500 ____________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (-4.2), NYC (-3.3) are wins for Roger Smith with coldest forecasts. BOS (-1.9) does not qualify as an extreme forecast, fourth coldest forecast was high score. ORD (-3.3) is a win for Tom with coldest forecast. ATL (+0.4) does not qualify at 0.4, would be a win-loss situation below -0.3 IAH (+0.9) is a win for BKViking (+1.0) and a loss for wxdude64 (+0.6) and Normal. DEN (+2.7) is a win for dmillz25 (+3.0) and a loss for Roger Smith (+4.5). PHX (+4.3) is a shared win for StormchaserChuck and Roger Smith with highest forecasts. SEA (+0.6) does not qualify as an extreme forecast. =================

Beginning to think one of those billionaires got the crystals up into the stratosphere (jk).

Would you expect a zone of enhanced amounts extending west from Long Island Sound across Bronx and Yonkers into n NJ? Looking at the synoptics model and real time I would expect that enhanced zone to be oriented almost E-W, possibly 260 deg? Also that can generate thunder-snow within squall cells.

Memo to snow gods ... don't need all my residuals tomorrow ... but do what you have to do!!! (my airport predictions for 1/24-26 total DCA 5.5, IAD 8.2, BWI 8.8, RIC 3.7. ... I need about twice those amounts for the contest but let's be optimistic and say there will be more to come) Would be happy to get it all in this storm though.

Not to be too critical of the thread but the severe cold part should make the dates read 1/24 to 1/26.

My bingo card is filling up, just marked off "this storm is a fail" 12 hours before precip begins, and also "results will depend on what happens." Dya think?

Not far from -40 in n WI and below -40 in n.e. Ontario, in fact below -30 F west of Ottawa. This storm is going to be feeding off an inflow of extremely cold air at least for its first portions. The ratios in the snow first sampled at Dodge City KS look like 19:1 (3.4" from 0.18" liquid). That may drop off a bit as the storm adds Gulf moisture to the Pacific moisture it started with, but that's a good sign for amounts with first portion of the snowfall tomorrow.

This seems promising, 19:1 ratios in the first sampling of snow (Dodge City KS had 3.4" from 0.18" l.e.) This was with temperatures within 3 deg or zero F during the snowfall event. I would expect this to reduce to 16:1 over Midwest and 13:1 over interior northeast but maybe not that rapid a modification of rates.

-32F in parts of eastern Ontario and -36F in n WI, this high is going to feed extreme cold into the storm until the coastal bombs (to some extent, not that robust) ... I am thinking 20-25 inch potential in parts of e MA and 15-20 across n half of CT. Think there will be some reductions by sleet near Long Island Sound and across se MA south of Plymouth to New Bedford. Even so, 10-12" before the change there. Remember that storm (think it was Dec 2020) when Binghamton NY had 40" -- I wonder if there will be a location that gets that sort of outcome with this one? I would think New England rather than upstate NY if so (probably not 40" but perhaps one local 30"). Not too far from ORH would be my guess as to where that might happen.

It has begun -- moderate snow at Dodge City KS, temp zero F. Moderate sleet near Wichita Falls TX, temp 27 F. My current take is very sharp snowfall cutoff close to I-95, hope I am wrong by 25-50 miles (south) but somewhere in that general area, gradients of 2 or 3 inches total snowfall every 10 miles until you reach an all-snow zone something like Frederick to York to Allentown. North of that, 12-16 local 20. So across DC region, it could be 8" south to 12" north, or just as easily 4" to 8". I will go with median values there and say 6" near DCA and 10" near IAD. Around 8-10" BWI to 12-15" Westminster. Would love to see this verify along GFS lines instead but often, the result of model disparity and model range is a weighted consensus. If the ECM stays near average of GFS and NAM output, then it will most likely do better than both of them. Should be a very impactful storm regardless of details. Expect thunder-snow or sleet mid-afternoon Sunday about when coastal begins to deepen.

Looks like March 12, 1888. Good luck with that one.

I think what's needed is that GIF with the guy and girl walking along, he's checking out the hot (GFS) babe but in a twist, she (NAM) is checking out the Euro. And RGEM is walking along reading his I-phone and crashing into a lamp-post. Anybody?

Still thinking Allentown e.n.e. to n NJ is the jackpot with 16-20 inch potential. Expecting very tight snowfall gradients near PHL to MMU, amounts could range from 3" to 12" over relatively short distances (n-s) in that zone. Given the location of PHL airport its total may be considerably less than a lot of people who live in northern suburbs. I guess you are used to that anyway. I don't believe both the GFS and the NAM could be exactly right so the result will be some sort of compromise between them ... would go with 50-50 blend, then if ECM is not close to that, further 50-50 of the blend with ECM. By the time I had that worked out, I could compare it to reported totals. Anyway, expect some very sharp gradients in this storm, and some thunder with the snow (or sleet) towards mid-afternoon Sunday.

Good move, you are prepared for the next one as well.

Starting to think the result will be a very sharp gradient of snowfall amounts, something like 4-6" JFK, 6-8" NYC, 8-10" LGA, 10-12" Bronx, 12-14" White Plains and 14-18" lower Hudson valley. Those gradients will then run in a generally w.s.w. direction across NJ into e PA. The axis of heaviest snow still where I thought earlier, Allentown to Catskills to n/c CT to e/c MA. These sharp gradients will also show up on Long Island from south to north shore with a range from 4 to 10 inches, and in s CT, RI and se MA. If the storm begins colder than modelled then possibly these phase changes will hit later in the precip cycle, I would still expect the change-overs in some areas but snowfall totals could then be 2 or 3 inches higher before the phase changes. Somebody was asking about lightning during this event, would not be surprised if there was widespread thundersnow mid-day Sunday, about when the coastal low is deepening fastest.

Good, I was just starting to think about a contest location and format and spotted this ... thanks. NYC: 6.8" (NYC) maybe 8-10 at other locations in the city Boston: 20.4" Philly: 3.7" (lots of sleet) DC: 4.5" (DCA) maybe 7" IAD Hartford: 17.5" Albany: 18.8" Me: As I live outside the storm zone I will add ORH 22.7" and ABE 14.5"

I don't know if it's just me, but I am beginning to think this rainstorm could start out with a touch of snow?

I thought the U.S. was to take over Greenland, it seems that Greenland has taken over the U.S. from the latest guidance. Luckily I am ineligible to be president although I am certainly old enough.

-35 to -40 dew points in heart of cold air mass in SK and MB would indicate potential for -40 to -45 F minimum temps in parts of ND and MN tomorrow morning, probably -30 to -35 F coldest spots in n WI. ... will guess -22F at Madison and -20F outside Chicago urban heat island. This will spread into MI and ON but Friday night will be coldest there. Fifty years ago I recorded -41F at a home weather station in central Ontario (Jan 22, 1976), it was so cold during the day (-20s F) that they had to send big tow trucks to start little tow trucks that were trying to start cars. And that was cars with block heaters. (my location was about 20 miles south of YQA).

GFS has to win sooner or later, even the Vancouver Canucks won last night! (after 16 losses in a row, they are aiming for first draft pick now). This looks like a cold storm start to finish to me subjectively speaking, but I am wary of the taint factor even so. Hoping it takes so long to ooze north over WV that it's a non-factor near the end anyway.

My early take is 18-24 inch potential across parts of e PA, n NJ and se NY, into n CT and central MA. Brief mixing issues south of that axis may intrude into parts of metro NYC near end of event, but even so, would expect 14-16" EWR, 10-13" NYC and JFK, 12-15" LGA and ISP. Can see how all of those could be a bit higher although getting NYC higher involves both (a) more snow and (b) somebody to measure more snow. Thinking I might start up a forum-wide storm snowfall contest for this one, would have an 18z Saturday closing time for entries. Look for it ...

I liked the map 40/70 posted and wouldn't really have any different numbers to suggest except to say there is potential here for up to 20-25 inch local amounts in central MA to n/c CT. That 18z GFS evolution looks promising and you have to wonder if there is any room for further intensification of the coastal on that sort of arc near the NJ coast past LI and near the islands off Cape Cod. If so this would start to approach Blizzard criteria. With that frigid air mass in place as storm approaches, it will take a long time for any taint to approach New England at any point and I could picture that being more of an issue in PA-NJ then pulled back into the circulation as the coastal absorbs the primary. And it looks like the pattern is far from being done too. Good times !!

Some parts of ePA could see 18-24 inches, question being how far north of PHL would that most likely verify? I am thinking Allentown towards Catskills of se NY is the sweet spot for this storm. I am taking a consensus but relying on GFS to be closest to verifying. You'll notice in 18z GFS there is promising evolution off the coast of a faster deepening low that tries to push back northwest before being pulled around closer to Long Island. That would likely result in strong banding of snow overnight Sunday into Monday. There will be mixing issues somewhere between PHL and SBY, I hope it doesn't mix anywhere in PA but it probably will briefly near the end of the storm most likely, by then the bulk of precip will have moved past,

Willing to bet this bombs out near Long Island and buries the region in feet of snow. Model trend is baby steps towards that end result. If this drops to 980 instead of 998, look out.