Roger Smith

*** __ 2023-2024 Winter Snowfall Contest __ *** Forecaster ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV wxdude64 ____________________________22.9 _ 30.2 _ 44.6 __ 22.2 _ 31.5 _ 88.3 ___ 54.3 __ 7.8 __ 71.4 RJay _________________________________ 22.0 _ 30.0 _ 44.0 __ 20.0 _ 25.0 _ 99.0 ___ 61.0 __ 4.0 __ 80.0 BKViking _____________________________ 19.0 _ 28.0 _ 37.0 __ 20.0 _ 17.0 __ 95.0 ___ 59.0 __ 4.1 __ 86.0 wxallannj _____________________________ 19.0 _ 27.0 _ 30.0 __ 38.0 _ 35.0 _ 97.0 ___ 41.0 __ 9.0 __ 75.0 Tom ___________________________________18.7 _ 32.6 _ 44.7 __ 37.2 _ 34.6 _ 97.8 ___ 51.6 __ 4.1 __ 73.2 Roger Smith __________________________ 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 _ 89.2 ___ 45.0 __ 3.0 __79.3 ___ Consensus ____ (median) __________18.5 _ 27.0 _ 37.0 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 89.2 ___ 54.3 __ 4.1 __ 77.0 so_whats_happening __________________18.0 _ 26.0 _ 41.0 __ 28.0 _ 35.0 _ 78.0 ___ 40.0 __ 7.0 __ 87.0 Scotty Lightning ______________________ 16.0 _ 21.0 _ 33.0 __ 43.0 _ 31.0 _103.0 ___ 41.0 __ 5.0 __ 86.0 hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 12.0 _ 31.0 _ 30.5 __ 33.5 _ 32.5 _ 68.5 ___ 59.5 __ 5.5 __ 77.0 DonSutherland1 _______________________ 11.5 _ 15.0 _ 27.5 ___27.0 _ 38.5 _ 85.0 ___ 56.5 __ 1.2 ___70.0 RodneyS _______________________________ 6.7 _ 12.9 _ 24.3 __ 30.0 _ 34.5 _ 79.9 ___ 65.4 __ 3.9 __ 64.3 ====================================== Will add snowfall to date around end of Dec -- good luck !

Not many U.S. stations go back into 1840s and 1850s, Toronto does, and you notice right away that winters in the 1840s were generally milder than in any decade until perhaps the 1930s, also snowfall tends to peak for Toronto around 1870. Winters were generally quite severe until the 1920s when a more modern trend began. I would not expect to find any location with similar temperatures in 1870s to 1890s as in recent times, it was generally quite a cold period, 1875, 1883 and 1888 are probably the three coldest years on record in any locations that observed back then. 1904 was also a very cold year. Personally while I acknowledge the science behind climate change I think we just happened to peak in fossil fuel output at the worst possible time when natural variability was swinging towards its own peak. If we weren't here, a lot of these trends would still be in evidence. We are just making things a bit worse. Perhaps we will catch a break and run into a cooling trend on the natural variability side. Some thought it would happen with the solar downturn (which seems to be over already) but strong El Nino events like 2015-16 overwhelmed that possibility. It will snow again, I don't believe the shift is that great, one encouraging sign, I just updated a data base for arctic Canada and winter 2022-23 was colder than almost all winters since 1970 and fairly similar to averages before 1970. This current winter is not as cold so far in the arctic regions.

Probably a case of non-accumulating flurries 0300-0900h 11th (mon) in metro NYC, to 1-3" parts of NJ, with the rapid temp fall, black ice conditions for morning commute in outlying parts of n NJ, hudson valley and w CT. I would be more concerned about ice than snow for road safety issues.

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com

Extension of map of recent winter warming into central and n Canada would likely display similar values into arctic islands. At Cambridge Bay on Victoria Island, average of coldest winter mo is up from -35 C to -32 C comparing 1991-2020 data to 1961-1990. Summers are about 1 C warmer now. Snow free season was mid-June to early September and is now late may to mid-September at location (near 70 N). It's a similar story at Resolute located about 500 miles n.e. in central arctic islands. Warming in region not quite as pronounced as data from Svalbard or n Russia but about 2/3 as extreme. Even so, a lot of variability year to year, NWPassage opens up to recreational sailing vessels about 3/4 of summers now but a few recent years were "no passage" -- normally if July means exceed 9 C at YCB and 5 C at YRB, NWPassage will open, and if not, ice will clog straits all of Aug-Sep (normal open season). Back in mid-20century it was considered rare for NWPassage to become ice free.

Speaking of 1888, apparently NYC residents of the time got weather forecasts in the daily papers, sent by telegraph from DC, but the blizzard brought down the wires in between DC and NY, and the forecast didn't arrive on the morning of the storm. All they knew was a rain changing to snow event was due in, as per the previous forecast, but no word on severity, which was actually in the forecast never received. This could be why by 1895 the weather bureau opened a forecast office in New York.

People were shorter in 1888, perhaps it wasn't under-measured.

We have a lower range to our west and there is a slight chinook effect in the Columbia valley, but it never gets above 50F here in any winter patterns, at least not before late Feb. I saw on Spokane news on TV in local lounge it was 52F today in GEG and CDA, and rivers are in flood around Portland OR where somebody drowned while out for a walk in a park. Our snow is running off fairly steadily and there won't be any left below our elevation by Tuesday afternoon at this rate. Almost a warm rain at moment, 46F.

Nasty up my way, snow turned to rain and it's very slick on regional roads especially above my elevation of 3500' ... temp warmed from 20s to 40s today and it's quite foggy.

Well I had a look (I participate in those contests) and apparently herb @ maws won the 2009-10 contest, the website does not preserve details but given 15-20 were usually in these contests, herb probably forecast close to what happened. I managed to win 2010-2011 and 2011-12 which surprised me since 2011-12 was probably a very snow-deficient winter but I do vaguely recall predicting a mild winter on Eastern wx before we got going here. I was going to plug the ne-wx site and will do it now, follow that link above and check it out. Don Sutherland (NYC) routinely does very well in storm forecasts.

From an earlier post, these are averages of the past contest winters: averages 2014/2015-2022/2023 ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ___ (total 48.4) past seven avg (2016/17- 22/23) ____ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 ___ (total 33.4)

GFS run looks similar to Dec 1967, stayed mild to about 22nd and flipped to cold, very cold first two weeks of Jan 1968. I don't foresee entire winter staying mild like last winter, more of an oscillating pattern, some colder spells. Still believe an energy peak around Dec 26-27 could be a snowstorm scenario. Looking at 16d GFS (Dec 19), if actual pattern resembled it, would expect closed low to drop from PAC NW to TX and storm would form in eastern Gulf. If not sufficient blocking to N, NE of NY-PA, could be a strong cutter instead. Anyway, some kind of active wx likely Dec 26-27.

Table of forecasts for December 2023 FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA wxallannj ________________________ +2.5 _ +2.2 _+2.0 __+3.2 _+2.4 _+1.6 ___+2.4 _+2.0 _+0.2 so_whats_happening ____________ +1.6 _ +1.0 _ +0.3 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _+1.2 ___+2.2 _+1.8 _+0.5 RJay _____________________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _+1.5 __ +2.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 __________________ +1.4 _ +0.1 _ +0.4 __ +1.7 _+1.3 _+1.1 ___ +2.3 _+1.2 _+2.7 Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+1.1 ____ 0.0 _ -0.3 _ -0.5 RodneyS _________________________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.3 __ +2.7 _+0.8 _+1.8 ___+1.7 _ +0.1 __0.0 ___ Consensus ____________________+1.0 _ +0.9 _+0.6 __+1.7 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +0.2 DonSutherland 1 _________________ +1.0 _ +0.3 __0.0 __ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.4 ___+3.0 _+2.3 _+3.3 Tom ______________________________ +0.8 _+0.9 _+0.9 __+1.0 _+0.7 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _+0.3 _-0.2 BKViking _________________________ +0.8 _+0.9 _+0.6 __+1.1 _+0.2 _+0.2 ___+0.5 _+0.7 _+1.6 ___ Normal ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ______________________-0.4 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 __ +0.4 _-1.0 _-1.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.5 _+1.5 wxdude64 _______________________ -1.4 _ -0.9 _ -0.9 __ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.6 ___+1.1 _ +0.3 _-0.3 ===================== Persistence (Nov 2023) _______________ -0.3 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ____+1.6 _+1.8 _-0.7 ___ +3.8 _+4.3 _ -1.7 warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is coldest for ORD and tied coldest DEN. Snowfall contest entries will be tabulated around Dec 10th

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Final Report Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3 contests entered. ... DonS and wxallannj have "high min" of 5 seasonal points. FORECASTER _______ Winter __Pts __ Spring __Pts ___Summer __ Pts ___ SEP_OCT_NOV __ Autumn _Pts _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ ___ ____ __TOTAL points DonSutherland1 _______ 1722 ___ 6 _____ 1761 ___ 5 _____ 2044 ___10 ____ 742 _ 682 _ 618 __ 2042 __ 10 ______ 31 wxallannj ______________ 1699 ___ 5 _____ 1765 ___ 6 _____ 1854 ___ 6 ____ 650 _ 650 _ 648 __ 1948 ___ 7 _______ 24 hudsonvalley21 _______ 1675 ___ 4 ______1824 ___ 10 _____1756 ___ 2 ____ 652 _ 682 _ 604 __ 1938 ___ 5 _______ 21 ___ Consensus ________ 1682 __ 4.3 ____ 1772 ___ 6.9 ____ 1829 __4.8 ____ 670 _ 654 _ 594 __ 1918 ___ 4.8 _____ 20.8 RodneyS ______________ 1760 ____7 _____ 1543 ____ 1 _____ 1872 ___ 7 ____ 750 _ 542 _ 464 __ 1756 ___ 3 _______ 18 RJay ___________________1879 ___ 10 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _____ 1733 ___ 1 ____ 538 _ 544 _ 590 __ 1672 ___ 1 ________ 17 wxdude64 _____________1518 ____ 1 _____ 1773 ____ 7 _____ 1832 ___ 5 ____ 614 _ 620 _ 586 __ 1820 ___ 4 _______ 17 so_whats_happening __ 1620 ___2 _____ -- -- _____0 _____1024* ___ 1 ____ 652 _ 687 _ 600 __ 1939 ___ 6 _______ 9 Scotty Lightning ______ 1147 ___ 1 _____ 1676 ____ 3 _____ 1642 ____ 1 ____ 650 _ 612 _ 546 __ 1808 ___ 3 _______ 8 Tom __________________ 1545 ____ 1 _____ 1281 ____ 1 _____ 1818 ____ 4 ____ 590 _ 550 _ 588 __ 1728 ___ 1 _______ 7 Roger Smith __________ 1626 ___ 3 _____ 1409 ____ 1 _____ 1460 ____ 1 ____ 494 _ 690 _ 564 __ 1748 ___ 2 ______ 7 BKViking ______________ 1576 ___ 1 _____ 1580 ____ 1 _____ 1804 ____ 3 ____ 676 _ ----_ 586 __ 1262*___ 1 _______ 6 Rhino 16 _______________ -- -- ___ 0 _____ 1675 ____2 _____1068* ___ 1 ____ 664 _ ---- _ 656 __ 1320* ___ 1 ______ 4 ___ Normal ____________ 1076 ____1 _____ 1570 ____ 1 _____ 1682 ____ 1 ____ 546 _ 492 _ 556 __ 1594 ___ 1 _______ 4 StormchaserChuck ____ 674** _ 0 _____ 1212*____ 1 _____ -- -- __ -- -- __ 562 __ --- _ --- ____ 562** __ 0 ______ 1 * 2/3 contests entered in season - eligible for 1 point. ** 1/3 contests entered -- no points in four seasons contest _______________________________________________ Congrats to Don Sutherland1 who blazed ahead in summer and autumn (top scores in both seasons). Wxallannj was a solid second scoring well in each season. hudsonvalley was third, with a top score in spring 2023. RodneyS fourth, RJay (top score winter 2022-23) and wxdude64 tied fifth

I was going to post yesterday but got lost in a wilderness of forecast contests, Dec 1 1962 you can add to files: 1962 _ Canada's 50th annual football championship, the Grey Cup, was severely affected by dense fog and by the third quarter the game was halted; it was not possible to play until the next day; despite better conditions, no further scoring occurred. This occurred at the Exhibition Stadium in Toronto, known as the "mistake by the lake" ... several later Grey Cup games at the same location were subjected to heavy rain (1982) and strong winds (1965) on late Nov dates. Toronto built an indoor domed stadium in the 1990s. Vancouver and montreal also have domes but other locations sometimes used resemble Lambeau Field in Green Bay in Dec or early January. The severe fog episode in 1962 was caused by a stagnant high lasting almost a week. You could also add this note, perhaps to other data for Dec 3rd: 1982 _ Toronto City hit 68.4 F on this date, a full 8F warmer than its previous Dec record of 61F (Dec 31, 1875). Toronto records go back to 1840. This record has not been surpassed since 1982. The month's average 2.3C was also a new (tied 1923) record (again tied 1998) but that shared record was broken four times after 1998, in 2006 (2.9C not a record, see 2001), 2001 at 3.2 C and most recently in 2015 at 5.2 C (and also in 2021 at 2.5 C but that did not beat 2015, 2001 or 2006). 2011, 2012 and 1984 round out the top ten. Dec is the only month to have nine of its top ten in the post-1980 era. February managed eight, 1954 and 1976 are its less recent two.

Just a reminder to you and all entrants, our snowfall contest runs Sep to June and DEN is already at 10.4" -- does it alter your assessment at all? All snowfall forecasts can be edited to Dec 10, forecast table date. Except for 10.4" already measured, I am equal to your forecast at 45" if you were basing it on now to end. ORD (2.7), DTW (2.4"), BUF (2.3") and BTV (5.0") already saw a bit of snow too. Those count towards contest values. Note also, a forecast contest is available (for 25th annual) at TQ's "northeast US snowfall contest" site; his contest period is Dec 1 to march 31, and because of late startup the deadline is Dec 10. There will also be storm forecast contests. DonS and I are regular participants, and I think some others from Am Wx are participants too, under different usernames. Give it a look, it's a blast (to see Don beating everyone). I did well in 2010 (or was it 1870?). Link to it here: http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

-0.4 _ -0.6 _ -0.3 _ +0.4 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ +2.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.5 18.5 _ 33.8 _ 54.1 __ 40.3 _ 48.4 (DTW) _ 89.2 (BUF) __ 45.0 _ 79.3 (BTV) _ 3.0 (SEA)

Just a heads up for contest entrants, 30 days hath Nov ... and it's a wrap.

Northeast U.S. snowstorm Dec 26-27. Your move Google AI.

Current scoring in order (with alternate scoring for one additional storm) (scroll down for final scoring table) forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your current score) (possible future score) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _S _ _ _H _ _ _ M _ _(deductions) _ 20 7 3 _ _ 21 7 3 _ _ 21 8 3 AM _ yotaman (31) _______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 92.5 ___ 91.5 IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) ______________ 18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___ 93.0 ___ 95.0 AM _ wkd (4) _____________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ hotair (18) __________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 89.5 AM _ solidicewx (28) _____________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 91.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ diggiebot (12) _______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 _____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ Torch Tiger (23) _____________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 --- ___ CSU _______________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 --- ___ TWC _______________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 89.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ Stebo (26) __________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 88.5 ___ 87.5 NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 89.0 ___ 92.0 AM _ wxdude64 (15) _____________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 AM _ GramaxRefugee (33)_______ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 _______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 85.5 AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 88.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 85.5 --- ___ NOAA median ______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ___90.5 ___ 86.7 ___ 85.7 AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 87.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 88.0 ___ 91.0 IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _______________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 86.0 ___ 85.0 NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ___ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 89.5 IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ___________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 88.5 AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _______ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.0 AM _ nvck (45) ___________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 85.0 ___ 86.0 _______ Consensus _______________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 85.0 ___ 83.8 AM _ JConsor (13) _________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 84.0 ___ 85.0 --- ___ UK Met Office _____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 86.5 ___ 90.5 AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) _________ 14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 83.0 ___ 80.0 AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) _____19 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____-0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 85.5 ___ 89.5 AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___ 21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 87.0 ___ 91.0 AM _ Marsman (14) _______________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 78.5 AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 AM _ Yoda (40) ____________________13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 80.0 AM _ George BM (41) ______________13 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 81.0 ___ 79.0 AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) ________13 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -14 -1 -1 _____ 84.0 ___ 80.0 ___ 78.0 AM _ Roger Smith (19) ____________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ___ 83.5 ___ 82.5 ___ 87.5 NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) __ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 ____ 82.0 ___ 79.5 ___ 83.5 AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________ 12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 77.5 ___ 76.5 AM _ North hills wx (24) ___________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 AM _ Newman (30) ________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 ___ 78.0 ___ 75.0 AM _ rclab (43) ____________________ 12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 76.5 ___ 77.5 AM _ crownweather (11) ___________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 75.5 ___ 73.5 AM _ Alfoman (25) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 76.0 ___ 73.0 AM _ Cat Lady (7) _________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-18 -3 _0 _____ 79.0 ___ 74.5 ___ 71.5 AM _ RJay (17) ____________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5 AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 73.5 ___ 70.5 AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________ 12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 70.5 ___ 66.5 IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________ 21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___74.5 ___ 75.0 ___ 79.0 AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ mob1 (8) ____________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 68.5 ___ 65.5 AM _ cnimbus (6) _________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___ 66.0 ___ 65.0 AM _ Matthew70 (32) ____________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -6 -1 ____70.5 ___ 65.5 ___ 61.5 AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5__4.5__2 ___-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 64.4___ 62.0 NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________ 12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ___-18 -10 -3 ____ 69.0 ___ 64.5 ___ 68.5 AM _ GaWx (21) ___________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 63.0 ___ 60.0 NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ____10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 60.0 ___ 56.0 AM _ The Iceman (39) _____________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 58.0 ___ 54.0 AM _ Olafminesaw (9) _____________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ 36.5 ___ 31.5 ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added NW = Net-weather (UK forum) and IE = boards.ie weather forum Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts) ======================================== Final results 2023 Tropical Contest ** note: ranks are shown (a) all entrants and (b) within your home forum, as three forums were participating (American Weather had the majority of entries, Boards.ie and Net-weather also had a few entries). As an example of how to read your contest ranks, taking 19th place North Arlington 101, that entry was 19th overall and 14th among American Weather Forum entrants. (19 14AM). Ranks are given for non-contest entrants but those do not affect later ranks of actual contest entrants. forum _FORECASTER ______ storms _hurr _major __ (your final score) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ err s _ h _ m _ score (100-sum err) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _S _ _ _H _ _ _ M _ _(deductions) _ 20 7 3 Ranks** 01 01AM _ yotaman (31) _______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 02 01IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) ______________ 18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___ 03 02AM _wkd (4) _____________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 04 03AM _hotair (18) __________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 05 04AM _solidicewx (28) _____________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 06 05AM _diggiebot (12) _______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ____ 92.5 ___ 07 06AM _Torch Tiger (23) _____________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ (08) --- ___ CSU _______________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ (08) --- ___ TWC _______________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 08 07AM _ Stebo (26) __________________15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 09 01NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 10 08AM _ wxdude64 (15) _____________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 11 09AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) _______ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 12 10AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 13 11AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ (13) --- __ NOAA median ______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ____ 90.5 ___ 14 12AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 15 13AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 16 02IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _______________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 17 02NW _Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______89.0 ___ 18 03IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ___________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 19 14AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _______14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 20 15AM _ nvck (45) ___________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 21 ---- _______ Consensus ___________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 21 16AM _ JConsor (13) ________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 22 ---- ___ UK Met Office _____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 22 17AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ________ 14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 23 18AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) _____19 ___ 11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 24 19AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___ 25 20AM _ Marsman (14) ______________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 26 21AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 27 22AM _ Yoda (40) ___________________13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 28 23AM _ George BM (41) _____________13 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 29 24AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _______ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 ___ 30 25AM _ Roger Smith (19) ____________19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ___ 83.5 ___ 31 03NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) __ 16 ____11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 ____82.0 ___ 32 26AM _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 33 27AM _ North hills wx (24) __________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___ 34 28AM _ Newman (30) _______________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___ 35 29AM _ rclab (43) ___________________ 12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____ -18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 36 30AM _ crownweather (11) __________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 37 31AM _ Alfoman (25) _________________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 _____-14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 38 32AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ___________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 39 33AM _ Cat Lady (7) ________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____ -18 -3 _0 ____ 79.0 ___ 40 34AM _ RJay (17) ____________________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 41 35AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 42 36AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 43 04IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________ 21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___74.5 ___ 44 37AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 45 38AM _ mob1 (8) ____________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 46 39AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 47 40AM _ cnimbus (6) _________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___ 48 41AM _ Matthew70 (32) _____________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -6 -1 ____70.5 ___ 49 42AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5__4.5__2 ___-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 50 04NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________ 12 ____ 11 ___ 1 ___-18 -10 -3 _____ 69.0 ___ 51 43AM _ GaWx (21) ____________________10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 52 05NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ____ 10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 53 44AM _ The Iceman (39) _____________ 10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___ -27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 54 45AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ______________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___ -45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ ____________________________________ 54 entries (45 AM, 5 NW, 4 IE) and four expert forecasts added NW = Net-weather (UK forum) and IE = boards.ie weather forum Consensus is derived from contest means (excluding expert forecasts)

Applying some research into energy peaks and feeding that into projected patterns, it looks like GFS is on track for first ten days, so I will just comment past that interval. Large energy peak Dec 11-12 is already showing up on model runs and I believe the depiction today is about how this one plays out, a coastal secondary acting a bit like an Apps runner and so 40s to low 50s, windy and turning very cold afterwards (briefly), 1-3" snow potential for higher portions of region west and north. A more moderate energy peak around Dec 18-20 would likely be a Colorado to Ohio to Vermont storm track, so could produce some warm advection snows in e PA and n md. In a best case scenario, blocking begins to establish to north and forces this one to redevelop around Delmarva, then it could be a 4-6 inch snowfall event. For now I will go with low 40s, rain in I-95 corridor and mixed precip north. A better chance for a winter storm exists in period Dec 25-27 for a more classic nor'easter and as this is a very large energy peak, it could be a significant storm. If blocking fails to develop by then it would more likely be a cutter. But if there is going to be one big storm in December, I would say Dec 25-26 (26-27 timing more for New England). This approximately seven-day energy peak cycle will probably maintain into January and I look for very large amplitude upper patterns that could produce all sorts of anomalous conditions across eastern NA. February may return to more of a classic coastal storm track and I am more optimistic about Feb than Jan. A key transitional period will be around Jan 24-25. If a blockbuster Feb is on tap, signs of its arrival will be either a fast change from mild to cold around those dates, or the onset of a storm track similar to Jan 30 to early Feb 2010. I believe it will be a very active winter and not very similar to last winter, or 2015-16 in terms of only two wintry events of note. From snowfall contest I can see this is a fairly widespread viewpoint.

Nice work GAtech, and all top finishers, full standings can be seen in a table I created a while ago now back on page 2. Terpeast was able to secure fourth with closest DCA forecast. I was able to avoid last by any DCA freeze before Dec 28.