Roger Smith

For many Philippe was not needed, but he is here and the count is now 17/6/3. Scoring table adjusted, leader still hotair, down to 99.5 now. Leader will be yotaman at 99.5 if Philippe becomes a 'cane and no new storms form by then. Still also some chance of a re-think on Ophelia not reaching 'cane status (contest rules in past have stated that count is whatever nhc says by end of year).

Airport rainfalls so far include (in order of total so far) 2.73" SBY (today to 5 pm, breaks record 1.52" 1924) + 0.14" 22nd __ storm total 2.87" to 5 pm 2.34" RDU (today to 5 pm, breaks record 2.03" 1906) + 0.43" 22nd__ storm total 2.77" to 5 pm 0.74" ORF (today to 5 pm, record is 2.78" 1979) + 1.77" 22nd _______ storm total 2.51" to 5 pm 1.98" WAL today to 5 pm, breaks record 0.80" 2011) + 0.47" 22nd __ storm total 2.45" to 5 pm 1.38" RIC (today to 5 pm, record is 2.08" 1975) + 0.31" 22nd ________ storm total 1.69" to 5 pm 1.21" NAK (today to 5 pm, no record available) + Tr 22nd ___________ storm total 1.21" to 5 pm 1.10" BWI (today to 5 pm, record is 3.19" 2011) + 0.01" 22nd _________ storm total 1.11" to 5 pm 1.02" IAD (today to 5 pm, record is 1.74" 2003) + 0.07" 22nd ________ storm total 1.09" to 5 pm 0.90" DCA (today to 5 pm, record is 2.40" 1907) +0.07" 22nd _______ storm total 0.97" to 5 pm 0.93" CHO (today to 5 pm, no record available) + 0.04" 22nd ________ storm total 0.97" to 5 pm

No harm, no foul. (I don't always remember infrequent entries years ago, but I don't recall metsfan ever entering contest ... regulars from NYC besides you and OonS include hudsonvalley21, BKViking, wxallannj, and a few years ago, brian5671, dmillz25, also further back, Sacrus used to enter, some I am less certain of subforum, for example Rhino16, seems more active on mid-Atlantic ... apologies if I overlooked anyone, going back further I can think of several active contest entrants whose regional participation is no longer recalled (by me) but they could have been in NYC, I don't see these around at all any longer.

Scoring table updated to 16 6 3 count, Ophelia approaches coast as borderline TS or hurricane given that hurricane warnings are in place. So count could be 16 7 3 at any point. Then also, potential TD17 and Philippe could develop next week and run the count to 17 7 3 (or 17 8 3 if Ophelia also briefly a hurricane. Score for hotair now at 100.0 but future activity could reduce that and provide a new leader by next week.

I would say it's about time for a cold, snowy winter, and mild ridge conditions in west will favor your side of continent in 2023-24. FA may scrape out a win but it won't be some "big winter" just a bit better compared to some recent stinkers. It needs to be kept in mind, even so, two consecutive mild, snowless winters already occurred 1931-32 and 1932-33, also several in a row around 1989 to 1991.

I just completed a summary of past eleven years of Am-Wx forecast contest analysis, take a victory lap NYC sub-forum, in 128 tries, your crew won about 1/2 of contests, led by Don S (about 30 wins) and RJay. Fun fact, ten years ago in Oct 2013, forkyfork won one, possibly only one entered, as I didn't spot name often. Analysis is in current September forecast contest in main general interest forum (walk carefully if you go in, a lot of lapsed members sleeping in doorways over in main forum). Don't wake 'em up!

I would take axis of max rainfall in above depiction and put it 50-100 miles N, W of its map location ... reason being, climatology suggests max rainfall from TS of moderate warm air availability often dump a lot of rain west of track. N NJ and e PA could see a lot more, LI possibly a bit less but I would stress more rain potential mostly, leaving coastal areas as is.

Thanks, all done now except to update to end of 2023 ... also the projections are updated and scoring also updated in post before the historical (or hysterical) overview.

Another invest in eastern Atlantic also could be named today but I believe TD16 will become Ophelia very soon, looks to be approaching STS appearance. The other name in play is Philippe. After that, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney -- would expect the whole set eventually, possibly even the first of the additional names required. Lots of storms, not much impact yet.

Looks to be acquiring TS appearance now, bet it is named at next report. Some chance of the eastern Atlantic invest being named today as well (next two names will be Ophelia and Philippe) so a slight chance of names being reversed?

Well I hope the rain does more good than harm, but heavy rain on dry ground can run off faster too (as per desert southwest storms rapidly filling up dry washes and slot canyons). Would be wary of this system.

About to become Ophelia, TS could approach cat-1 intensity by 18z before landfall e NC, an over performer can be expected, I believe, in terms of rain, wind and surge, especially rain. Parts of VA and central MD, even se PA, n/c NJ could see flooding rainfalls of 6-10 inches. Axis of heavy rain RIC to IAD to 50eCXY to 30nw EWR ahead of and to west of advancing low center. Model QPF seems a bit displaced to east of where climatology suggests, along and just west of track of low. Slight tornadic risk Delmarva and s NJ on Saturday as storm becomes extratropical and fronts rotate around it.

4 to 7 inches Fri-Sat to Sun 0600h, peak gusts 40-55 and low 70s t, dp, slow clearing Sunday

Declaring contest to be final now. __ Max values 2023 (to date) __ 99 __ 100 __100 __101 The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. (Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ now applies to all locations. FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals) 1. Weather53 (13) _______________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ____ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2. RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) __________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 0 0 2 ___2 ____ 2 __ lower 3rd lowest error (0) 3. biodhokie (25) ________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _____0 1 1 0 ____2 ____ 3 __ higher 3rd lowest error (1) 4. WxUSAF ( 4 ) _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 1 0 2 ___ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0012 5. katabatic ( 9 ) _________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 0 2 0 1 ____3 ____ 5 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0012 6. tplbge (24) ___________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ____1 0 2 0 ____3 ____ 6 __ later entry of 0012 7. nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 ____ 0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 7 __ earlier entry of 0111 8. GramaxRefugee (19) __________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ____1 1 0 1 ____ 3 ____ 8 __ later entry of 0111 9. WinstonSalemArlington (22) __ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 _____0 1 3 0____4 ____ 9 __ lowest 3rd lowest error (0) 10 MN Transplant ( 5 ) ___________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 1 1 0 2 ____4 ____10 __ lower lowest error (0) than 1111 11 Terpeast ( 6 ) _________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 _____1 1 1 1 _____4 ____11 __ earlier entry of 1111 12 Its a Breeze (12) ______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ____ 1 1 1 1 _____4 ____12 __ later entry of 0111 13 wxdude64 (16) _______________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 2 1 1 1 ____ 5 ___ 13 __ earlier entry of 1112 14 toolsheds (18) ________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 1 2 1 1 ____ 5 ____14 __ later entry of 1112 15 NorthArlington101 (21) ________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ____0 3 1 2 ____ 6 ____15 __ lower lowest error (0) 16 Stormpc (14) __________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 ____ 1 2 1 2 ____6 ____16 __ higher lowest error (1) 17 WxWatcher007 (11) ___________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____1 3 1 2 ____7 ____17 __ earliest entry of 1123 18 mattie g (17) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _____2 3 1 1 ____7 ____18 __ 2nd earliest entry of 1123 19 H2O (20) _____________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____3 1 2 1 ____7 ____19 __latest entry of 1123 20 soundmdwatcher (23) ________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ____1 2 4 1 ____ 8 ____20 21 LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 1 3 2 3 ____9 ____ 21 22 ChillinIt (15) ___________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 3 2 3 3 ___11 ____22 23 Roger Smith __________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 _____3 2 3 2 ___10 ____23 24 Rhino16 ( 2 ) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 _____2 3 2 4 ___11 ____24 25 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) _____ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 _____5 3 3 3 ___14 ____25 26 GeorgeBM ( 8 ) _______________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 _____6 3 6 3 ___18 ____26 ______________________________ Thanks for entering and congratulations to Weather53 for a nearly flawless forecast, three of four forecasts correct and the fourth off by just one degree. Well done also to Rick in Baltimore who also had three correct, and one error of 2 deg. Third place biodhokie was correct on two, and off by only 1 deg on two others. The rankings depend partly on order of entry and essentially a lot of ranks are tied with better ranked forecasts since the ties are not copied forecasts but just similar patterns of errors at different locations. Looking forward to the first frost and snowfall contests.

If Ophelia follows consensus track then I fear rainfalls are considerably underpredicted, 6 to 10 inch potential with a TS on track, not in all parts of region of course, but concentrated along an inland frontal boundary between tropical air dp 72-76 and cooler air with dew points in 60s. I would guess east central PA to west central MD to parts of VA-WV border regions. The heaviest rain is usually along and just west of the track of northward moving tropical storms. The slow forward speed would be a factor in exposing the region to longer accumulations of rain. If this proves correct, there could be severe flood risks in a few drainage basins of n/c VA into c MD and se PA. (also central NJ and possibly se NY)

Not convinced Nigel will be a major but I added (in brackets) an alternate total score if it does. Not yet in table would be adjustment to error deduction from alternate 15/6/4 count. If Nigel reaches major status, top scores would be 98.5 (wkd, solidicewx, hotair, NorthArlington101). Later edit, Nigel did not reach major status, count remains 15/6/3. Could soon increase to 16/6/3, giving hotair 100.0 as a score for the present. I continue to think that 19/8/4 could be the end result and in that case, tae laidir from boards.ie would win contest. Almost all of entries below 15/6/3 are now mathematically eliminated. Scoring table will be re-organized in October to show scoring ranks, for now it continues to be ordered by forecast counts.

Nigel brings count to 15/5/3 and it sees quite likely to reach 15/6/3 and perhaps 15/6/4. Potential scoring table in a previous post is updated for the more certain 15/6/3 count, will be easy enough to update again to 15/6/4 if necessary.

The history of the contest (with personal best scores) Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month. In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ... month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492 MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64 APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13 MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem* ___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64 AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW) NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 __ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet. In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532 MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1 APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters) MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 ) JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794 JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592) AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716 OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd) NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462 __ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ... month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542 FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503 APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756 MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495 JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1 AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed) SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644 NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd) DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most) The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd). Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. * Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. _______________________ 2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64 FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446 MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637 APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658 JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756) AUG ______ 646 __ RJay SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active. 2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1 FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second. APR _______ 628 __ RJay MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest) JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj JUL ________778 __ RJay AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627 NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017 DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1 The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 2018 As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1 JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393) _______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1) 2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21 FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550 MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586 NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8) ... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner) MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) JUL _______ 664 _ RJay AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point. OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660 NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential. 2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread). OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty) NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927) __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0. 2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1 MAR ______ 756 _ Tom APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty) JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are 18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657 MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720 JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1 SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen) NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2023 By end of 2023, 120 contests and 10 years of contests will be complete. This table will be updated each month until then. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck or R ino16), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win. Best monthly score over ten years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name. FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _ +field __ total ___ Wins (Yr) _ +field __ total ___ Snow __ Summer __ Extreme __ Four Seasons DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 _____29.5 ______ 3 _______ 1 _______ 4 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 1.5, 1, 2.5 __ RodneyS (794) __________19 ______ 4 _______23 _______ 3 _______ 0 _______ 3 _______2,1,3 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 3 ____ Roger Smith (808) ______14.5 ____ 2.5 _____ 17.0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____ RJay (778) ______________ 11 ______ 3 _______14________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 1,0.5,1.5 ___0.5, 0, 0.5 ____ wxallannj (770) __________6.5 ______3 ______ 9.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5______ 7.0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_______ 5 ________ 0 _______--_______ 0 ________ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 2.5 _____7.0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 0 _______ 4 ________ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 0 ________ 0 ____ Maxim (698) ______________ 3 ______ --_______ 3 _______ 0 _______--_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0.5 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ______2.5*_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Tom (756) _________________ 2 ______ 1 _______ 3 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ______ 2 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____ rainsucks (725) ___________ 2 ______ --_______ 2 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Stebo (712) _______________ 2 ______ --_______ 2 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5______ 2.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____ StormchaserChuck (724) __1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_______ 0 ________ 1 _______ --_______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_______ 0 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Snoski14 ___________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mercurial ___________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Orangeburg Wx (682) ______ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Yoda (690) _________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ______ 0.5 ______ 0 _______-- _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ mikehobbyst ________________1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Rhino16 _____________________1 _______-- _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CCM ________________________0 ______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ * so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. (following not counted against wins above) Consensus (756) ___________ 2 Normal (720) _______________ 4 Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. Will continue this project to completion later in 2023, in time to move it to end of annual 2023 roundup. Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. UPDATED for NOV 2023 and SUMMER MAX 2023

Provisional Scoring for September 2023 Quite early, just to show what scores you would receive if the projections above are accurate. _ post now after historical overview post below, followed by annual update post. (post identified potential for high scores this month). Good luck, I am pretty sure scores over 800 may have happened in the past, but it is unusual. I believe it could happen for one or two scores this month. (the following historical summary answers the question of highest previous scores, they are from April or June 2014 and a few are just over 800, others have personal bests in the 750 to 800 range ...) =========================

Lee has already become a major, now Margot at TS status is likely to be a (non-major) cane also, table edited again for predicted count of 14/5/3 (currently 14/4/3).

All four locations just failed to increase values today (7th), RIC again at 100F. Must have been a scorcher in 1881 (104F DC, 101F BAL, and also in NYC, their all-time high so late in the year). Last table may well have been final report, will confirm end of September.

Yes, climate report now says 100F as well, so we edit. See new contest standings in a recent post above. Seems like the heat may now fade slowly? This may be the final report. In any case I am going to be away on a trip to UT and n AZ ... may get a few moments on the internet but any new developments would probably go unseen by me until at least a week from now.

Climate report says 99 IAD but regional roundup (and RodneyS) say 100. I await confirmation, table may need an edit later.

Lee brings the count to 13/4/2 and quite likely 13/4/3 within a few days. Scoring table updates to follow. (previous post will be edited)

Cleared up the uncertainty about IAD which appears to have hit 100F as well as BWI, RIC at 101F. Current standings as of September 6, 2023 Table is now in scoring order. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far (IAD and one BWI forecast passed now, to date). __ Max values to date ____________ 99 __ 100 __100 __101 The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. (Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ now applies to all locations. FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals) Weather53 (13) _______________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ____ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) __________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 0 0 2 ___2 ____ 2 __ lower 3rd lowest error (0) biodhokie (25) ________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _____0 1 1 0 ____2 ____ 3 __ higher 3rd lowest error (1) WxUSAF ( 4 ) _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 1 0 2 ___ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0012 katabatic ( 9 ) _________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 0 2 0 1 ____3 ____ 5 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0012 tplbge (24) ___________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ____1 0 2 0 ____3 ____ 6 __ later entry of 0012 nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 ____ 0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 7 __ earlier entry of 0111 GramaxRefugee (19) __________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ____1 1 0 1 ____ 3 ____ 8 __ later entry of 0111 WinstonSalemArlington (22) __ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 _____0 1 3 0____4 ____ 9 __ lowest 3rd lowest error (0) MN Transplant ( 5 ) ___________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 1 1 0 2 ____4 ____10 __ lower lowest error (0) than 1111 Terpeast ( 6 ) _________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 _____1 1 1 1 _____4 ____11 __ earlier entry of 1111 Its a Breeze (12) ______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ____ 1 1 1 1 _____4 ____12 __ later entry of 0111 wxdude64 (16) _______________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 2 1 1 1 ____ 5 ___ 13 __ earlier entry of 1112 toolsheds (18) ________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 1 2 1 1 ____ 5 ____14 __ later entry of 1112 NorthArlington101 (21) ________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ____0 3 1 2 ____ 6 ____15 __ lower lowest error (0) Stormpc (14) __________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 ____ 1 2 1 2 ____6 ____16 __ higher lowest error (1) WxWatcher007 (11) ___________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____1 3 1 2 ____7 ____17 __ earliest entry of 1123 mattie g (17) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _____2 3 1 1 ____7 ____18 __ 2nd earliest entry of 1123 H2O (20) _____________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____3 1 2 1 ____7 ____19 __latest entry of 1123 soundmdwatcher (23) ________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ____1 2 4 1 ____ 8 ____20 LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 1 3 2 3 ____9 ____ 21 ChillinIt (15) ___________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 3 2 3 3 ___11 ____22 Roger Smith __________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 _____3 2 3 2 ___10 ____23 Rhino16 ( 2 ) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 _____2 3 2 4 ___11 ____24 StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) _____ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 _____5 3 3 3 ___14 ____25 GeorgeBM ( 8 ) _______________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 _____6 3 6 3 ___18 ____26 ______________________________ The table will be updated if necessary.