Roger Smith

BWI _ Oct 21 IAD _ Oct 21 DCA _ Nov 15 RIC _ Nov 15 BWI departure -0.1

Table of forecasts for October 2023 Forecaster _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ___ +2.2 _ +1.1 _ -0.1 Roger Smith ______________________ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 so_whats_happening __ (-1%) ____ +1.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.2 ___ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 wxallannj __________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.6 ___ -0.2 _ +0.6 _ +0.6 ___+2.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.6 ___+2.9 _ +0.9 _ +1.5 ___ +2.7 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ Consensus _____________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.4 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 ___ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 Scotty Lightning ___________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 wxdude64 _________________________+0.9 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___+0.9 _ +0.3 _ +1.8 ___ +0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 Tom _______________________________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ -0.3 _ -0.1 _ +1.4 ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 RJay _______________________________ 0.0 _ +0.3 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +0.5 _+2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.7 _ -0.8 _+2.5 ___ +1.0 _ -0.6 _ +0.6 ___ Persistence (Sep 2023) ________+1.0 _ +0.2 _ +1.8 __ +3.2 _ +0.9 _ +4.8 ___+3.2 _ +2.0 _ -0.6 _________________ highest forecasts in red, coldest in blue. Normal was coldest for NYC, BOS, IAH and DEN.

Yes, I noticed it was 10th warmest September at Toronto, closer to 50th warmest at NYC. Unusual for them to be so far apart in rankings but coastal disturbances kept it relatively cool second half in NYC and BOS.

I am away from base for a couple of days so table of forecasts may not appear until Oct 4, can somebody in NYC group give BKV and r16 a message re contest deadline?

Summer Maximum Contest __ Final results Sep 30, 2023 (forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino 16 _____________________105 __ 95 __ 98 ____101 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 96 Scotty Lightning _____________103 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 104 _ 109 ___ 94 _ 119 __ 90 Roger Smith _________________ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___103 _ 119 __ 98 so_whats_happening ________ 101 __ 101 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 100 __ 101 _ 122 __ 97 RJay _________________________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 105 ___100 _ 119 __ 97 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 101 __ 98 __ 95 ____100 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 93 DonSutherland1 ______________101 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 103 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 ___ Consensus _______________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 95 wxdude64 ___________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 ___102 _ 100 _ 105 ___104 _ 119 __ 96 BKViking _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 97 ___99 __ 100 _ 120 __ 95 Tom ___________________________99 __ 98 __ 97 ___ 101 __ 99 __ 103 ___97 _ 119 __ 97 wxallannj ______________________98 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 94 __ 98 _ 102 __ 101 _ 116 __ 97 RodneyS ______________________98 __ 96 __ 95 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 92 Terpeast ______________________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 99 (summer max 2023) __________ 99 __ 93 __ 93 ____100 __ 99 _ 109 ____99 _ 119 __ 95 (SCORING _ departures of forecasts) _ (now in contest rank order) Rank _FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL _01 __ Tom ________________________ 0 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 20 (8) _02 _______ Consensus ___________ 1 ____ 5 ___ 5 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 6 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 21 (9) _02 __ hudsonvalley21 ____________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 22 (8) _03 __ RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 24 (6) _04 __ RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 25 (18) _t05__ DonSutherland1 ____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 6 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 28 (20) _t05__ wxdude64 _________________ 1 ___ 6 ___ 8 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 28 (4) _07__ BKViking _____________________1 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 3 ___ 2 ___10 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 29 (15) _t08_ Terpeast _____________________3 ___ 4 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 30 (18) _t08 __ Roger Smith _______________ 2 ___ 9 ___ 7 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 30 (1) _09__ wxallannj _____________________1 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 6 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 31 (18) _11 __ Rhino 16 ______________________6 ___ 2 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 7 ___ 8 ____ 0___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 31 (9) _t12 __Scotty Lightning _____________4 ___ 8 ___ 6 ____2 ___ 5 ___ 0 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 5 ____ 35 (12) _t12 __so_whats_happening ________2 ___ 8 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 9 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 35 (9) ============================= As usual, a close result in contest, east generally cooler than forecasts. <<< September scores and annual scoring updates are in previous posts, scroll back >>> (portion of score in brackets represents differentials where your forecast was surpassed by actual values ... the rest of your total is from forecasts warmer than actual values).

+1.7 for all nine.

14.25" Sep 2023 total (plus any later today) would be 2nd wettest Sep (1882 _ 16.85") and fourth wettest month overall. (Aug 2011 _ 18.95" ranks first, Sep 1882 _16.85" ranks 2nd, Oct 2005 _16.73" ranks 3rd). (NYC)

14.25" Sep 2023 total (plus any later today) would be 2nd wettest Sep (1882 _ 16.85") and fourth wettest month overall. (Aug 2011 _ 18.95" ranks first, Sep 1882 _16.85" ranks 2nd, Oct 2005 _16.73" ranks 3rd).

Event ends up in top ten (or top 20 for 2d) daily rainfalls for NYC: Top 30 daily rainfalls (includes all 3.99" or greater) and top 25 2d rainfalls, NYC 1869-2023 Rank ___ Rain ___ Date ___________ 2d total (rank, see list below table also) _01 _____ 8.28 ___ Sep 23, 1882 __ 10.62 (22-23)_ (rank 2) _02 _____ 7.57 ___ Apr 15, 2007 ___ 8.47 (15-16) __ (rank 4) _03 _____ 7.40 ___ Nov 8, 1977 ____ 9.19 (7-8) ____ (rank 3) _04 _____ 7.33 ___ Oct 9, 1903 ___ 11.63 (8-9) ____ (rank 1) _05 _____ 7.13 ___ Sep 1, 2021 _____ 7.23 (1-2) _____ (rank 6) _06 _____ 5.81 ___ Aug 14, 2011 ___ 6.37 (14-15) __ (rank 11) _07 _____ 5.60 ___ Nov 8, 1972 ____ 5.60 (8) _____ (rank 20) __ note, not daily record or 2d record, would be for any day(s) in Nov except (7-) 8th _08 _____ 5.54 ___ Sep 21, 1966 ___ 5.64 (21-22) _ (rank 19) _09 _____ 5.48 ___ Sep 29, 2023 __ 5.86 (28-29) _ (rank 16) _10 _____ 5.02 ___ Sep 16, 1999 ___ 5.44 (15-16) _ (rank 20) _11 _____ 4.98 ___ Oct 1, 1913 _____ 5.28 (1-2) ____ (rank 22) _12 _____ 4.97 ___ Apr 30, 2014 ___ 5.09 (30-1 May)_ (rank 24) _13 _____ 4.86 ___ Sep 8, 1934 ____ 5.48 (7-8) ____ (rank 21) _t14 ____ 4.80 ___ Aug 20, 1873 ___ 4.89 (19-20) __ (rank 25) _t14 ____ 4.80 ___ Aug 16, 1909 ___ 5.15 (16-17) ___ (rank 23) _16 _____ 4.64 ___ Aug 10, 1990 ___ 6.14 (10-11) ___ (rank 15) _17 _____ 4.45 ___ Aug 21, 2021 ___ 7.12 (21-22) ___ (rank 7) _18 _____ 4.35 ___ Oct 19, 1996 ___ 4.50 (19-20) ___ (rank 33) _19 _____ 4.30 ___ Sep 19, 1894 ___ 5.16 (18-19) ___ (rank 22) (t19 ____ 4.30 ___ Oct 8, 1903 _____ part of rank 1st 2d total above, Oct 8-9, 1903 11.63") _21 ____ 4.29 ___ June 26, 1884 __ 4.74 (25-26) __ (rank 27) _22 ____ 4.26 ___ Oct 12, 2005 ____ 7.01 (12-13) ___ (rank 8) _23 ____ 4.19 ___ Aug 21, 1888 ____ 4.32 (21-22) __ _t24 ___ 4.16 ___ Sep 15, 1933 ____ 7.00 (14-15) __ (rank 9) _t24 ___ 4.16 ___ Aug 27, 1971 ____ 5.96 (27-28) __ (rank 16) _t24 ___ 4.16 ___ June 7, 2013 ____ 4.64 (7-8) _____ (rank t28) _27 ____ 4.10 ___ Aug 9, 1942 _____ 4.25 (9-10) ___ _28 ____ 4.09 ___ Oct 7, 1972 _____ 4.38 (6-7) _____ _t29____ 4.05 ___ Oct 4, 1877 _____ 4.07 (4-5) _____ _t29____ 4.05 ___ Sep 21, 1938 ___ 5.74 (20-21) ___ (rank 18) _31 ____ 3.99 ___ Aug 28, 2011 ___ 6.87 (27-28) __ (rank 10) (only top 30 2-day totals are ranked) (only larger of two possible 2-day totals are considered for ranking) These events spread over two calendar days were in top 31 but not above 1-d top 30 list, including 7.76" Sep 13-14, 1944 (rank 5) __ 3.94" + 3.82" (daily records) 6.32" Aug 12-13, 1955 (rank 12) _ 3.62" + 2.70" (daily records) 6.28" Sep 3-4 1969 (rank 13) ____ 3.32" + 2.96" (3.32" daily record 3rd, 4th 1913 had 3.48") 6.23" Sep 17-18, 1874 (rank 14) __ 3.28" + 2.95" (not daily records) 4.83" fell Aug 8-9, 1976 (rank 26) ____ 3.90" on Aug 9 not a daily record (see 1942) 4.64" fell Sep 28-29, 2004 (rank t28) _ 3.84" Sep 28 was daily record 4.62" fell July 24-25, 1997 (rank 30) _ 3.75" July 24 was daily and July 1d record 4.61" fell Aug 30-31, 1911 (rank 31) __ 3.76" Aug 31 was daily record 4.59" fell Aug 17-18, 1879 (rank 32) __ 3.95" Aug 18 was daily record

Just a heads up for contest regulars, October forecast due in by 06z.

I would agree except we just saw P and R named, and not a lot indicated on model runs in addition to them, so playing it fairly cautious, would not be too surprised to see a count into low 20s, key to scoring changes will be how many are 'canes as few forecasts are now too high for named storms but those tend to require a few more 'canes and one or two more majors to overcome scoring deficit as shown for the 20 8 3 option above. 20 8 3 will win for tae laidir (of boards.ie) and so would 20 8 4, if we got to 21 9 4 the winner would still be tae laidir with you (SC1) around 2nd, and 22 10 4 is good for you to win. Others near the lead now will drop back as the N error begins to bite. Let's see what season values we are scoring in late October, could be a different story then. I also have a slight chance, I would need every new storm to be a 'cane and certainly one if not two majors. But loving (etc) stuff may have better chances. Winner is almost certain to be somebody in the top portion of the forecast table from Ineedsnow to Stormchaser, I think Pauldry at top of forecasts has too many majors and would only move ahead if four more 'canes produce four more majors. That seems unlikely but not ruled out entirely. Fairly certain 22, 10 or higher canes, and x majors will win for Stormchaser (x = 5) or Pauldry (x = 8), so any count you want to speculate that is 22 to ??, 10 to ?? depends on number of majors, Stormchaser wins for 4, 5, 6 and Pauldry wins for 7 or more. I may have only one outcome for a win, need to get to 18 8 3 somehow and then go to 22 12 4 or 23 12 4, various other forecasts have my numbers "stymied" but I can hold off higher storm forecasts as my errors there will stay lower for 22 and 23, after that they escalate too far and the lead goes back to the better of the two 21 forecasts. The other 19 forecast -- same logic but needs two majors to score better than me. Slowly but surely forecasts lower than 17 total storms are being eliminated mathematically. Will post a table of what all plausible counts produce as top scores in a few days. If we get past 23, I think only the 21s have any chance.

New today, a scoring update for possible end of season 20/8/3 which is a plausible end of season result ... if that changes I will adjust the table. Then in November-December look for updates as we close in on the actual total. Current scoring also updated a few posts back. Count is 18/6/3 until possibly one of two active storms makes it to 'cane status. Option for 18/7/3 is also scored in brackets.

Jeb or others, would it need to snow to get that result? Seriously, this current cool, blocked low-energy pattern augurs well for intervals of chilly weather in winter too, with chances for snow. I would be predicting about what the OP was saying, not as sure about which parts of winter will be coldest, it could be intervals in each of DEC, JAN, FEB and into early spring too. I hope there is about 25-30" snow rather than the plausible sounding 18" but I don't see big snowfalls, just a steady trickle of low totals in 3-5 inch range.

Just changed the scoring table to show potential for another storm after Philippe, and taking away the potential for Philippe to become a hurricane at all. So in net terms it adds one more storm, since the additional hurricane shifts from Philippe to the next one (Rina). (edit 29th) _ Rina now active as TS, edited scoring to show your current totals, as well as what those would become, if either Philippe or Rina become a hurricane. Different solutions show either one getting that strong next week, but not both. Leader continues to be hotair but one more storm or a conversion of present storm to 'cane will shift the lead. As season is nowhere near over yet, provisional 19 6 3 option for scoring is not a likely end point, and possibly 20 7 3 is most likely total. A total of 20 7 3 would give us final scores as follows: <<< SCORING for 20 7 3 >>> _ ranks for forecasters only, ranks for organizations and consensus do not alter forecaster ranks _ NOTE: As of Oct 11, this continues to be the postulated outcome, but post will not be updated, a new scoring summary replaces Aug 27 post, and this post will be replaced by future speculations in the scoring summary (posted today Oct 11 2023). IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 __74.5 (43) AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ___86.5 (t22) --- ___ UK Met Office ____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 ___ 87.0 (22) AM _ Roger Smith (19) ___________ 19 ___ 12 ____ 4 ____ -0.5 -15 -1 __ 83.5 (30) AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) ____ 19 ___ 11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 __ 86.5 (t22) IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) _______________18 ____ 9 ____ 4 ____ -1.5 -3 -1 ___ 94.5 (2) AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 ____ -3 -6 -1 _____ 90.0 (15) NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) ____ 17 ____10 ____ 3 ____ -3 -6 _0 ____ 91.0 (t9) NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4)__ 16 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -5 -10 -3 ___ 82.0 (t31) NW _ Emmett Garland (NW-1) ____ 16 ____10 ____ 3 ____ -5 -6 _0 ____ 89.0 (t17) IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 ____ -5 -3 -3 ____ 89.0 (t17) AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 4 ____ -5 -3 -1 ____ 91.0 (t9) AM _ wkd (4) ______________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 ____ -5 _0 -1 ____ 94.0 (t3) AM _ solidicewx (28) ______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____-5 _0 -1 ____ 94.0 (t3) AM _ yotaman (31) ________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ____ 95.0 (1) AM _ hotair (18) ___________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ____ 94.0 (t3) AM _ wxdude64 (15) ______________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ____ 91.0 (t9) AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) ________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -6 -1 ____ 91.0 (t9) AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) ___________ 15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____-7.5 -1 -1 ___ 90.5 (t13) AM _ diggiebot (12) ________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____-7.5 _0 _0 ___92.5 (t6) AM _ Torch Tiger (23) ______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ___92.5 (t6) --- ___ CSU ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ___92.5 (t6) --- ___ TWC ________________________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 ______ -7.5 _0 _0 ___92.5 (t6) AM _ Stebo (26) ___________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 2 ______ -7.5 _0 -1 ___91.5 (8) AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) __________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 ______ -7.5 -1 -1 ___90.5 (t13) AM _ Marsman (14) ________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 ______ -7.5 -6 -1 __ 85.5 (25) --- ___ NOAA median _______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____ -9.1 _0 -0.4 __90.5 (t13) AM _ JConsor (13) __________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -10.5 -1 -1 __ 87.5 (21) AM _ nvck (45) _____________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 _____ -10.5 -1 _0 __88.5 (t19) IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _________________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -10.5 _0 _0 __89.5 (16) AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _________ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -10.5 -1 _0 __88.5 (t19) AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ___________14 ____ 5 ____ 3 _____ -10.5 -3 _0 __86.5 (t22) _______ Consensus _________________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.6 (17) AM _ Yoda (40) _____________________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _0 -1 ___ 85.0 (t26) AM _ Superstorm93 (22) ___________ 13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _0 -1 ___ 85.0 (t26) AM _ George BM (41) _______________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____ -14 -1 _0 ___ 85.0 (t26) AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _________ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 (29) AM _ North hills wx (24) _____________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 (t31) AM _ Newman (30) _________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 ____ 82.0 (t31) AM _ Alfoman (25) __________________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 (t36) AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) _____________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 (t36) NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _________________12 ____ 11 ____ 1 ____-18 -10 -3 ___ 69.0 (50) AM _ rclab (43) ______________________12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-18 -1 _0 ____ 81.0 (35) AM _ Rhino 16 (2) ___________________ 12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 ____ 82.0 (t31) AM _ crownweather (11) ____________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____-18 -1 -1 ____ 80.0 (t36) AM _ Cat Lady (7) ___________________12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-18 -3 _0 ____ 79.0 (39) AM _ RJay (17) ______________________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 ____ 78.0 (t40) AM _ cheese007 (35) _______________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 ____ 78.0 (t40) AM _ Eyewall (27) ___________________12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-18 -6 -1 ____ 75.0 (42) AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _______11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ___73.5 (t44) AM _ mob1 (8) ______________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ___73.5 (t44) AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _______________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ___ 73.5 (t44) AM _ Matthew70 (32) ______________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -6 -1 ___ 70.5 (48) AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5 __4.5___2 ____ -25 -4.4 -1 ___ 69.6 (49) AM _ cnimbus (6) ___________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 (47) AM _ GaWx (21) _____________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 (51) NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ______10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 (52) AM _ The Iceman (39) _______________10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___-27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 (53) AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ________________7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___-45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 (54)

There is a 2023 contest thread not sure why this one got re-opened.

Predict temperature anomalies for DCA_NYC_BOS__ ORD_ATL_IAH__ DEN_ PHX_ SEA in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages ("normals") Deadline for on-time entries 06z Sunday 1st of October 2023. Good luck !! You may already have seen my post in September thread giving a detailed history of our contests back to 2013, and summaries of your wins and best scores. I know about half the regulars have seen this by comments and reactions. Enjoy. Also preliminary scoring posted over in September thread, to be adjusted at end of month.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - SEPTEMBER 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 596 _558 _ 640 __1794 __692 _680 _568 __1940__3734 __631 _562 _700 __1893 ____5627 wxallannj __________________547 _538 _ 591 __ 1676 __ 733 _652 _478__ 1863 __3539 __ 585 _570 _602 __ 1757 ____5296 ___ Consensus _____________545 _528 _ 611 __1684__ 705 _574 _531 __1810 __3494 _ 529 _541 _ 688 __ 1758 ____ 5252 RJay _______________________526 _516 _ 539 __1581 __ 669 _564 _622__ 1855 __3436 __491 _597 _ 699 __ 1787 ____5223 hudsonvalley21 ____________553 _540 _ 635 __1728 __702 _577 _517 __ 1796 __3524 __512 _486 _ 691 __ 1689 ____5213 RodneyS __________________ 580 _538 _606 __1724 __ 543 _521 _578 __ 1642 __3366 _ 617 _ 534 _ 680__ 1831 ____ 5197 wxdude64 _________________566 _569 _526 __1661 __ 523 _640 _468 __1631 __ 3292 __613 _532 _ 654 __1799 ____ 5091 BKViking ___________________546 _506 _583 __1635 __ 663 _550 _545 __1758 __ 3393 __475 _492 _ 588 __1555 ____4948 Scotty Lightning ___________497 _508 _568 __1573 __ 615 _515 _490 __ 1620 __ 3193 __ 452 _ 410 _ 524 __1386 ____4579 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is still ahead of Roger Smith and just below Scotty L ... ... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score compares to about 6th-7th places above in the scoring table (between wxdude64 and BKViking). ... ... ... Stormchaser Chuck's pro-rated score is between 1st and 2nd, just below leader Don Sutherland1. ... ... ... so_whats_happening has a pro-rated score between 7th and 8th. ... ... ... rhino16 has a pro-rated score between 9th and 10th. Tom (8/9) __________________507 _472 _529 __1508 __520 _480 _460 __1460 __ 2968 __508 _424 _583 __1515 _____4483 (5044) Roger Smith _______________ 462 _374 _404 __1240 __507 _433 _554 __1494 __ 2734 __441 _498 _660 __1599 ____ 4333 ___ Normal _________________458 _480 _488 __1426 __536 _492 _352 __1380 __ 2806 __482 _ 382 _554 __1418 ____ 4224 Rhino16 (6/9) ______________400 _414 _416 __ 1230 __448 _432 _236 __1116 __ 2346 __ 331 _278 _452 __1061 ____ 3407 (4541) so_whats_happening (5/9) _256 _246 _322 __824 __343 _259 _254 ___856 __ 1680 __ 236 _322 _356 ___914 ____ 2594 (4668) Stormchaser Chuck (4/9) __251 _272 _268 ___791 __341 _174 _ 224 ___ 739 __ 1530 __284 _300 _334 ___ 918 ____ 2448 (5471) Terpeast (1/9) ______________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 __ 146 ____ 482 (4438) rainsucks (1/9) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 (4204) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________427 _376 _450 __1253 __520 _507 _552 __1579 ___2832 __304 _440 _486 __1230 ____4062 ... (persistence scores a bit lower overall but can score better in a few cases) ... ... (persistence scoring added to all 2023 reports) ... _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) ^ shared with two other forecasters for one month FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2*___1* ___ 0____3 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 3^___2*___1 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____3***__1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*____ 1* _ May(t),July ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0___ 4**^__1___ 1*____ 0 hudsonvalley21 ____________1*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May(t) RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 2*____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___3*___2 ___ 1* ___3 ____2 _ Jun,Sep wxdude64 _________________1^____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^___2 ___1 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (8/9) _________________ 2*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (6/9) ______________ 2^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 2 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (5/9) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Stormchaser Chuck (4/9) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Terpeast (1/9) _____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0 rainsucks (1/9) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 64 of 81 forecasts qualify, 35 of them for warmest, and 29 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3, Sep 1-3 ... 18 of 64 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug _Sep ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _1-0 __ 18-1 ______16.0 - 1.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 _0-0 __ 10-3 ______ 9.0 - 2 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 0-1 ___ 9-4 ______ 8.5 - 4.0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 8-1 ______ 7.5 - 1.0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _2*-0_0-0 __ 6-1 ______ 4.5 - 0.5 Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0_3-0 __5-0 ______ 3.83-0 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* __5-2 ______ 4.5 - 1.5 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 4-2 ______ 4.0 - 1.5 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 __ 4-3 ______ 3.0 - 2.0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __1*-1 _2^-1 _0-2 _ 4-4 ______ 2.83 - 4.0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ______ 2.0 - 0.0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0_ 0-0 __ 3-0 ______ 1.83 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1 ===========================================

Final Scoring for September 2023 FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL RodneyS __________________ 94 _ 66 _ 90 __ 250 __ 96 _ 82 _ 76 __ 254 __504 __ 92 _ 68 _ 86 __ 246 ___ 750 DonSutherland 1 __________ 80 _ 62 _100 __242 __ 94 _ 78 _ 60 __ 232 __ 474 __ 92 _100 _ 76 __ 268 ___742 BKViking __________________ 78 _ 54 _ 88 __ 220 __ 92 _ 64 _ 44 __ 200 __ 420 __ 74 _100 _ 82 __ 256 ___ 676 ___ Consensus ____________ 70 _ 56 _ 82 __ 208 __ 96 _ 76 _ 44 __ 216 __ 424 __ 74 _ 90 _ 82 __ 246 ___ 670 Rhino16 ___________________ 96 _ 92 _ 72 __ 260 __ 60 _100_ 20 __ 180 __ 440 __ 58 _ 66 _100 __224 ___ 664 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 64 _ 56 _ 82 __ 202 __ 84 _ 68 _ 52 __ 204 __ 406 __ 78 _ 94 _ 74 __ 246 ___ 652 wxallannj _________________ 60 _ 40 _ 68 __ 168 __ 96 _ 82 _ 32 __ 210 __ 378 __ 86 _ 90 _ 96 __ 272 ___ 650 Scotty Lightning __________ 90 _ 84 _ 84 __ 258 __ 56 _ 88 _ 44 __ 188 __ 446 __ 56 _ 80 _ 68 __ 204 ___ 650 so_whats_happening _____ 70 _ 62 _ 80 __ 212 __ 94 _ 76 _ 42 __ 212 __ 424 __ 64 _ 92 _ 62 __ 218 ___ 642 wxdude64 ________________ 76 _ 86 _ 52 ___ 214 __ 30 _ 98 _ 28 __ 156 __ 370 __ 64 _ 98 _ 82 __ 244 ___ 614 Tom _______________________ 58 _ 36 _ 70 __ 164 __ 86 _ 74 _ 34 ___ 194 __ 358 __ 74 _ 82 _ 76 __ 232 ___ 590 StormchaserChuck 1 ______ 50 _ 34 _ 72 __ 156 __ 84 _ 42 _ 78 __ 204 __ 360 __ 46 _ 60 _ 96 __ 202 ___ 562 ___ Normal _________________80 _ 96_ 64 __ 240 __ 36 _ 82 _ 04 __ 122 __ 362 __ 36 _ 60 _ 88__ 184 ___ 546 RJay ______________________ 30 _ 14 _ 46 __ 090 __ 54 _ 38 _ 80 __ 176 __ 266 __ 84 _ 100 _ 88 __272 ___ 538 Roger Smith _______________ 44 _ 14 _ 16 __ 074 __ 54 _ 42 _ 76 ___ 176 __ 250 __ 86 _ 90 _ 68 __ 244 ___ 494 persistence (Aug anoms) _ 66 _ 74 _ 46 __ 186 ___ 46 _ 70 _ 80 __ 196 __ 382 __ 62 _ 52 _ 38 __ 152 ___ 534 _____________________________________________________ Extreme Forecast Report DCA __ (+1.0) is a win for Rhino16 (+0.8) and a loss for wxdude64 (-0.2) and Normal. NYC __ (+0.2) is a win for Rhino16 (+0.6) and a loss for wxdude64 (-0.5), Normal shares win. BOS, ORD, ATL, DEN, PHX _ did not qualify, outcomes close to consensus or at least second most extreme not high score. IAH __ (+5.0) is a win for RJay (+4.0). SEA __ (-0.6) is a win for Rhino16 (-0.6) and a loss for Stormchaser Chuck. __ ================================================================= __ (forecasts) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay ______________________+4.5 _+4.5 _+4.5 __ +5.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+2.0 __0.0 Roger Smith ______________+3.8 _+4.5 _+6.0 __ +5.5 _+3.8 _+3.8 __+2.5 _+2.5 _+1.0 StormchaserChuck 1 _____+3.5 _+3.5 _+3.2 __ +4.0 _+3.8 _+3.7 __+0.5 __ 0.0 _-0.8 Tom ______________________ +3.1 _+3.4 _+3.3 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _+1.5 __+1.9 _+1.1 _ +0.6 wxallannj _________________ +3.0 _+3.2 _+3.4 __ +3.0 _+1.8 _+1.4 __+2.5 _+1.5 _-0.4 hudsonvalley21 ___________+2.8 _+2.4 _+2.7 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.4 __+2.1 _+2.3 _+0.7 ___ Consensus ____________+2.5 _+2.4 _+2.7 __ +3.0 _+2.1 _+2.0 __ +1.9 _+1.5 _+0.3 so_whats_happening _____+2.5 _+2.1 _+2.8 ___ +3.5 _+2.1 _+1.9 __+1.4 _+1.6 _ +1.3 BKViking __________________+2.1 _+2.5 _+2.4 __ +2.8 _+2.7 _+2.0 __+1.9 _+2.0 _+0.3 DonSutherland 1 __________+2.0 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +3.5 _+2.0 _+2.8 __+2.8 _+2.0 _+0.6 Scotty Lightning __________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 RodneyS _________________ +1.3 _+1.9 _+1.3 ___ +3.0 _ 0.0 _+3.6 __+3.6 _+0.4 _+0.1 Rhino16 __________________ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +1.2 _+0.9 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.3 _-0.6 ___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxdude64 ________________-0.2 _ -0.5 _ -0.6 __ -0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __+1.4 _+2.1 _+0.3 ========================= persistence (Aug anoms) _-0.7 __-1.1 _ -0.9 ____ +0.5 _+2.4 _+5.8 __+1.3 _+4.4 _+2.5

I moved recent post of September anomalies to current post, and will move preliminary scoring to next post, so as not to disrupt the thread. First reports on anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 13 Sep __ (anom 12d) ____ +5.7 _ +5.3 _ +5.6 ___ +2.7 _ +2.3 _ +5.3 ___ +2.9 _ +1.8 __ 0.0 22 Sep __ (anom 21d) ____ +2.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.8 ___ +1.3 _ +0.5 _ +4.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.2 13 Sep __ (p anom 30d) __ +3.5 _ +3.3 _ +3.5 ___ +2.5 _ +2.1 _ +3.3 ___ +1.8 _ +2.5 __+1.2 22 Sep __ (p anom 30d) __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +3.0 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +3.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ 0.0 27 Sep __ (p anom 30d) __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +0.5 _ +4.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ 0.0 1 Oct ___ final anomalies __+1.0 _+0.2 _ +1.8 ___ +3.2 _ +0.9 _ +4.8 ___ +3.2 _ +2.0 __- 0.6 _______ (Sep 13) _ Projections based on +2 anoms for Sep 13-30 except for DEN +1 and PHX +3. Scoring would be good, consensus at 770 from values now listed. (Sep 22) _ New projections a bit cooler in general, assuming near normal in east to +3 in parts of west but SEA closer to average. New estimated scores will follow. (Sep 27) _ Projections adjusted as it has generally been cooler in east and warmer in west. (Oct 1) _ Final anomalies posted, scoring is being adjusted.

Updated airport rainfalls to end of 24th (in order of total so far) ACY 0.04" 24th + 3.67" 23rd (breaks record 1.12" 1975) + Tr 22nd _____ storm total 3.71" 23-24 RIC 0.10" 24th + 2.76" 23rd (breaks record 2.08" 1975) + 0.31" 22nd ___ storm total 3.17" 22-24 SBY Tr 24th + 2.83" 23rd (breaks record 1.52" 1924) + 0.14" 22nd _____ storm total 2.97" 22-23 IAD 1.29" 24th + 1.51" 23rd (record is 1.74" 2003) + 0.07" 22nd _________storm total 2.87" 22-24 RDU 0.00" 24th + 2.38" 23rd (breaks record 2.03" 1906) + 0.43" 22nd_ storm total 2.81" 22-24 ORF 0.00" 24th + 0.74" (record is 2.78" 1979) + 1.77" 22nd _____________ storm total 2.51" 22-23 WAL 0.00" 24th + 1.99" 23rd (breaks record 0.80" 2011) + 0.47" 22nd __storm total 2.46" 22-23 DCA 0.77" 24th + 1.42" 23rd (record is 2.40" 1907) +0.07" 22nd _______ storm total 2.26" 22-24 BWI 0.90" 24th + 1.29" 23rd (record is 3.19" 2011) + 0.01" 22nd ________ storm total 2.20" 22-24 NAK 0.42" 24th + 1.28" 23rd (no record available) + Tr 22nd ___________ storm total 1.70" 23-24 PHL 0.53" 24th + 1.15" 23rd (record is 3.72" 1882) + 0.00" 22nd _______ storm total 1.68" 23-24 ILG 0.30" 24th + 1.22" 23rd (record is 2.65" 1907) + 0.31" 22nd ________ storm total 1.52" 22-23 CHO 0.09" 24th + 1.20" 23rd (no record available) + 0.04" 22nd ________storm total 1.33" 22-24 RDG 0.59" 24th + 0.64" 23rd (record is 3.15" 2003) + 0.00" 22nd _______storm total 1.23" 23-24 (reports of 2-5 inches in NYC region also)

Updated airport rainfalls to end of 23rd include (in order of total so far) 2.76" RIC 23rd (breaks record 2.08" 1975) + 0.31" 22nd __ storm total 3.07" 22-23 2.83" SBY 23rd (breaks record 1.52" 1924) + 0.14" 22nd __ storm total 2.97" 22-23 2.38" RDU 23rd (breaks record 2.03" 1906) + 0.43" 22nd__ storm total 2.81" 22-23 0.74" ORF 23rd (record is 2.78" 1979) + 1.77" 22nd ________ storm total 2.51" 22-23 1.99" WAL 23rd (breaks record 0.80" 2011) + 0.47" 22nd __ storm total 2.46" 22-23 1.51" IAD 23rd (record is 1.74" 2003) + 0.07" 22nd ________ storm total 1.58" 22-23 1.42" DCA 23rd (record is 2.40" 1907) +0.07" 22nd _______ storm total 1.49" 22-23 1.29" BWI 23rd (record is 3.19" 2011) + 0.01" 22nd _________ storm total 1.30" 22-23 1.28" NAK 23rd (no record available) + Tr 22nd ___________ storm total 1.28" 22-23 1.20" CHO 23rd (no record available) + 0.04" 22nd ________ storm total 1.24" 22-23

For many Philippe was not needed, but he is here and the count is now 17/6/3. Scoring table adjusted, leader still hotair, down to 99.5 now. Leader will be yotaman at 99.5 if Philippe becomes a 'cane and no new storms form by then. Still also some chance of a re-think on Ophelia not reaching 'cane status (contest rules in past have stated that count is whatever nhc says by end of year).

Airport rainfalls so far include (in order of total so far) 2.73" SBY (today to 5 pm, breaks record 1.52" 1924) + 0.14" 22nd __ storm total 2.87" to 5 pm 2.34" RDU (today to 5 pm, breaks record 2.03" 1906) + 0.43" 22nd__ storm total 2.77" to 5 pm 0.74" ORF (today to 5 pm, record is 2.78" 1979) + 1.77" 22nd _______ storm total 2.51" to 5 pm 1.98" WAL today to 5 pm, breaks record 0.80" 2011) + 0.47" 22nd __ storm total 2.45" to 5 pm 1.38" RIC (today to 5 pm, record is 2.08" 1975) + 0.31" 22nd ________ storm total 1.69" to 5 pm 1.21" NAK (today to 5 pm, no record available) + Tr 22nd ___________ storm total 1.21" to 5 pm 1.10" BWI (today to 5 pm, record is 3.19" 2011) + 0.01" 22nd _________ storm total 1.11" to 5 pm 1.02" IAD (today to 5 pm, record is 1.74" 2003) + 0.07" 22nd ________ storm total 1.09" to 5 pm 0.90" DCA (today to 5 pm, record is 2.40" 1907) +0.07" 22nd _______ storm total 0.97" to 5 pm 0.93" CHO (today to 5 pm, no record available) + 0.04" 22nd ________ storm total 0.97" to 5 pm

No harm, no foul. (I don't always remember infrequent entries years ago, but I don't recall metsfan ever entering contest ... regulars from NYC besides you and OonS include hudsonvalley21, BKViking, wxallannj, and a few years ago, brian5671, dmillz25, also further back, Sacrus used to enter, some I am less certain of subforum, for example Rhino16, seems more active on mid-Atlantic ... apologies if I overlooked anyone, going back further I can think of several active contest entrants whose regional participation is no longer recalled (by me) but they could have been in NYC, I don't see these around at all any longer.

Scoring table updated to 16 6 3 count, Ophelia approaches coast as borderline TS or hurricane given that hurricane warnings are in place. So count could be 16 7 3 at any point. Then also, potential TD17 and Philippe could develop next week and run the count to 17 7 3 (or 17 8 3 if Ophelia also briefly a hurricane. Score for hotair now at 100.0 but future activity could reduce that and provide a new leader by next week.