Roger Smith

Phoenix has had 3.26" also, and normal for this part of October is 0.24" -- in fact the normal for the year to date is only 5.59" -- the climate report reveals that a year ago it was a record warm 103F and the month had been dry to that point. We ended up with 3 inches of snow last night at my elevation of 3300' asl, a drive around on Monday under clear skies revealed that the snow only accumulated above 3000' and it was quickly disappearing this afternoon in town. Quite cold still as clear skies prevail, probably going down below 25 F tonight here.

LB, from what I can ascertain from storm reports and the NOAA weather map archive project, the track was across the Delmarva Peninsula and far southern NJ towards central Long Island and then Rhode Island to near Boston, but as the storm underwent extratropical transition it looks to have been elongating rapidly with a new center forming near Nantucket on Oct 14th. Probably NYC was hit with a period of strong E-NE winds, then moderate westerlies set in when the trough axis passed through CT. It was probably never much over 55 F during the event in NYC, I would guess it was 70F in eastern Long Island briefly. The archive maps lack intensity but are probably better for track as they would have numerous ship reports available.

The NHC has named Lorenzo in the tropical Atlantic, another likely fish storm but hey we'll take what we can get. Scoring tables will be adjusted yet again. Jerry disappeared so no chance of becoming a hurricane. They say Lorenzo has an outside chance. I am guessing the coastal low will get a name a few days from now when it's out over warmer waters. That will be Melissa, or Nestor, or ...

Thanks Don, because our Thanksgiving always falls on a Monday and people travel to visit family/friends, almost everyone in Canada has their big meal on Sunday (today) as we are now about to do ... some wait for the Monday but I would guess three quarters or more of Canadians celebrate today. The big meal is probably very similar to American traditions, but we don't have any huge sales like Black Friday. If people are visiting they usually travel home on the Monday and it's back to work Tuesday so it's a three-day instead of four-day holiday here. If people have summer cottages they usually close those down for the winter either this weekend or the next. I don't know which country had Thanksgiving first, but I think it stems from harvest festival Sundays in some Christian denominations, plus the feast of Tabernacles in Jewish observance that has some similar features. People probably realize this but Columbus Day is not observed in Canada, some might know when it takes place, but Canadian weather enthusiasts refer to the Columbus Day storm as post-tropical Freda.

Wet snow is now falling here, coating on some surfaces. Trees are still in full leaf so if this would accumulate it would bring down branches. It could accumulate at higher elevations than here.

Well there's a daily posting on this subforum of historical weather events all over the country (by Sacrus) and quite often I see posters discussing those, so I don't think the above is true but anyway I did post some of the info on the mountain west thread so I will shuffle on back there and shoot grizzlies off my front porch.

I know, Don finds these things interesting even if you don't.

First snow on local peaks overnight, snow line is 6,000' and a chilly 45 F at 2 p.m. here at 3500' elevation, stratus deck at around 10,000' just above the peaks of the local Monashee Range. Snow stayed a little higher than mountain pass elevations but we could see the clear snow line on the local peaks, just some drizzly light rain falling in some places now as a shallow layer of arctic air seeps in from the northeast. Peak fall colors now at 2,000' to 5,000' elevations.

There were some dramatic radar echoes over Arizona and southern Utah from this storm, I think Chinook posted them on the mountain west thread. Where I live, we have the first snow visible on nearby peaks (the snow line is at 6,000 ft) and it's a chilly 45 F at 3500' probably high 30s on the slopes above us. We are at peak fall colour (which is mostly gold in this area, some orange and red). Note the anniversary of the 1962 storm, that was extratropical Hurricane Freda from the central Pacific basin (not a typhoon). The center of that went right over Vancouver airport at midnight with a pressure of 958 mbs. About half the trees in western Washington state were blown down, you can still see areas south of Olympia WA that had total removal of mature forest. There was considerable damage in the Vancouver area and on Vancouver Island as well (so I am told, I didn't live out west in 1962, I was in Ontario).

Maybe they wasted the name Karen on that so if they need to name the coastal, which will be a high impact event, it won't have the name Karen and people won't focus on that. I don't think they will name this storm until possibly a late stage after it leaves the coast. That may mean the tropical system down around 15N will get a name first (Lorenzo) and the coastal could end up being Melissa. Or it could be just Lorenzo and no Melissa until later in October.

We have to count Karen the stats padding STS, it probably won't harm most peoples' scoring anyway. I am editing the scoring post.

I hope it maintains a social distance and complies with all health recommendations.

Jerry has now arrived, and is predicted to become a hurricane briefly southeast of Bermuda. This causes me to edit the table of scoring above, the potential for 10 5 3 is still in brackets and now 10 4 3 is scored. If we get further action in October I will post an actual scoring table in correct order, this one is basically upside down with a few exceptions.

I think the correct answers were 4/3/2. Season is now 10/4/3 so it was a boost to a rather anemic count by modern standards, fairly average for all data though. Could see the final count being 13/6/3 or 14/6/3, very close to 1991-2020 average, by no means a blockbuster season, and a lot of tracks staying out to sea. The only people sad about that are probably reading this.

If they confirm 84F as NYC high, it's t-5 with 1931 and 1951. 1941 (94F), 1922 (89F), and 1891, 1967 (86F) were top four. It replaces 83F (2007, 2017) as warmest since 1967.