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Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KGEG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Rossland BC Canada
  • Interests
    global climate research, golf

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  1. <<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Nov) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. Change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved up one relative to forecasters (from being between 4th-5th to the gap between 3rd-4th). As this is a provisional scoring total, Tom may move back ahead of consensus and then there would be no change indicated for consensus. Normal remained in the gap between 10th and 11th (Roger Smith the only full-time forecast contest entrant behind Normal although half of the deficit erased in November, differential down from 202 to 110). Any changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa. As it happens, only two ranks changed for the forecasters in November (subject to final adjustments) as wxdude64 moved past so_whats_happening, and kept pace with RJay both narrowing their gaps behind several just ahead now. RodneyS in second moved from 171 back to 147 behind leader DonSutherland1. December will determine who takes the top spot with third place BKViking 238 points behind, which is a tall order with those two ahead of him, but not impossible. These totals currently include November provisional scores which may be adjusted, so differentials here may change, check back around Dec 1-2 for updated version. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 773 _832 _598 _ 2203 __688 _860 _792 _2340_ 4543__490 _703 _766 _1959___ 6502 RodneyS _____________________ 741 _804 _605 _ 2150 __ 579 _854 _690 _ 2123__4273 __582 _714 _786 _2082___ 6355 BKViking _____________________ 741 _820 _605 _ 2166 __ 551 _799 _750 _ 2100__4266 __585 _659 _754 _1998___ 6264 ___ Consensus (up 1) _________ 781 _834 _596 _ 2211 __542 _796 _752 _ 2090__4301 __562 _623 _768 _ 1953___ 6254 Tom __________________________ 800 _885 _645 _ 2330__529 _737 _738 _ 2004__4334 __544 _619 _748 _1911___ 6245 wxallannj _____________________ 727 _804 _549 _ 2080 __491 _770 _764 _ 2025__4105 __692 _607 _806 _2105___6210 hudsonvalley21 _______________750 _789 _610 _ 2149 __ 470 _768 _710 _ 1948__4097 __537 _658 _817 _2012___ 6109 RJay __________________________745 _807 _626 _ 2178 __612 _779 _687 _ 2078 __4256 __553 _541 _649 _1743___ 5999 wxdude64 (up 1) _____________768 _743 _551 _ 2062 __494 _781 _716 _ 1991 __4053 __588 _629 _712 _ 1929___ 5982 so_whats_happening (down 1)_777_755 _457 _ 1989 __530 _818 _645 _ 1993__3982 __500 _616 _707 _ 1823___ 5805 Scotty Lightning _____________ 705 _750 _528 _ 1983 __401 _674 _688 _ 1763__3746 __560 _597 _766 _ 1923___ 5669 ___ Normal ____________________712 _686 _444 _ 1842 __346 _760 _760 _ 1866 __3708 __530 _644 _778 _1952___ 5660 Roger Smith __________________685 _644 _368 _ 1697 __550 _692 _752 _ 1994 __3691 __550 _569 _740 _1859___ 5550 Deformation Zone _ (5/11) ___ 313 _ 278 _254 __ 845 __232 _376 _342 __ 950__ 1795 __236 _250 _364 __850___2645 (for comparison prorated)^^ __689 _612 _559 _ 1860 __510 _837 _752 _ 2099 __3959 __519 _ 550 _800 _1869 __ 5828 _ this may not be exact because scoring in the four months DZ has entered may have been higher or lower than avg. Stormchaser Chuck (1/11) ____ 020 _ 030 _ 064 _ 114 __060 _030 _090 _ 180 ___ 294 ___000 _ 010 _ 070_ 080 ___ 374 Best scores for the locations and regions (note, for NOV, ATL and SEA not yet updated due to close scoring) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 2 __Feb,Jul BKViking _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr Tom __________________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 _____ 2 _____ 0 __ RJay __________________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 2 __Sep,Oct wxdude64 ____________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 2 __ Mar(t),Nov so_whats_happening _________ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ____________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __May,Jul Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 2 __Jun, Aug Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 74 locations out of 99 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, 8 in September and October, and 5 in November. Of those, 40 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 34 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been nine shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _______ Jan __Feb __Mar _ Apr _ May _Jun _ Jul _ Aug _Sep _ Oct_ Nov ___ TOTAL to date Roger Smith _________ 2-1 __2-0 __ --- __1-0 __ 1-0 __2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _3-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 __ 15-3 RodneyS ____________ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __ 2-1 __1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 11-1 wxallannj ____________ ---- __--- __ --- __3-0 __ 2-0 __3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _--- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 10-0 RJay _________________ --- __--- __ 2-0 __2-0 __ 1-0 __1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _1-0 _ 1-0*_ 1-0 __ 10-0 DonSutherland1 _____ 2-0 __1-0 __ 2-0 __0-1 __ 2-0 __1-0 __ --- _ --- _1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 10-1 ___ Normal ___________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __---- __ 1-0 __--- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _--- _ 0-0 _ ---- __ 9-0 so_whats_happening _--- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _3-0 _ --- _ ---- __ 7-0 wxdude64 ___________ --- __1-0 __ 2-0 __--- __ --- __--- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-1 ___ 6-1 Tom __________________---- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __1-0 __ ---- _ --- _--- _ 3-0 _ ---- __ 5-0 Deformation Zone ___ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-1 _ ---- __ 4-1 BKViking _____________ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ 1-0 __1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- __ 3-1 Scotty Lightning _____ ---- __--- __ ---- __--- __--- __1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- __ 3-1 hudsonvalley21 ______ ---- __--- __ --- __--- __ --- __ ---__ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 __ 2-0 __________________________________ * RJay also had two other near-win efforts in October tied or very close to tied with others but late penalty interfered. These are called "no decision" outings in this contest. ** Note that for best forecast and extreme forecast awards, players in these current tables will be eligible after any first time forecasters are evaluated in November (seeing as one at least has entered -- meaning that if one of those new entrants wins then the field will be re-evaluated without that score involved).
  2. Provisional scoring for November 2021 Scoring is currently from the provisionals shown in the table. The scoring has been left in forecast table order for now. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTALS __ Provisionals __________-2.0 _-1.5 _ 0.0 __ __ __ -2.0 _-1.5 _+0.5 ____ ___ ____ +5.0 _+5.0 _ 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 20 _ 30 _ 64 ___114 __ 60 _ 30 _ 90 __ 180 __ 294 ___ 00 _ 10 _ 70 __ 080 ____ 374 Scotty Lightning ________ 30 _ 50 _ 80 __ 160 __ 40 _ 40 _ 80 __ 160 __ 320 ___ 10 _ 20 _ 90 __ 120 ____ 440 so_whats_happening ____34 _ 40 _ 68 __ 142 __ 48 _ 86 _ 82 __ 216 __ 358 ___ 30 _ 18 _ 80 __ 128 ____ 486 BKViking ________________56 _ 62 _ 90 __ 208 __ 80 _ 66 _ 84 __ 230 __ 438 ___ 30 _ 28 _ 80 __ 138 ____ 576 hudsonvalley21 _________ 58 _ 58 _ 88 __ 204 __ 44 _ 50 _ 74 __ 168 __ 372 ___ 48 _ 50 _ 96 __ 194 ____ 566 __ Normal _______________60 _ 70 _100 __ 230 __ 60 _ 70 _ 90 __ 220 __ 450 ___ 00 _ 00 _100__100 ____ 550 DonSutherland1 ________ 66 _ 74 _ 96 __ 236 __ 50 _ 72 _ 96 __ 218 __ 454 ___ 24 _ 20 _ 96 __ 140 ____ 594 Roger Smith ____________ 66 _ 78 _ 80 __ 224 __ 90 _100_ 66 __ 256 __ 480 ___ 48 _ 30 _ 84 __162 ____ 642 __ Consensus ___________ 66 _ 72 _ 90 __ 228 __ 68 _ 90 _100__ 258 __ 486 ___ 16 _ 20 _100 __136 ____ 622 Deformation Zone _______80 _ 60 _100__ 240 __ 80 _ 90 _ 90 __ 260 __ 500 ___ 10 _ 20 _100 __130 ____ 630 Tom ____________________ 82 _ 88 _ 84 __ 254 __ 82 _ 88 _ 54 __ 224 __ 478 ___ 02 _ 18 _ 90 ___110 ____ 588 wxallannj _______________ 84 _ 94 _ 80 __ 258 __ 40 _100_100__ 240 __ 498 ___ 14 _ 38 _ 80 ___132 ____ 630 RodneyS ________________88 _ 72 _ 90 __ 250 __ 68 _ 98 _ 78 __ 244 __ 494 ___ 16 _ 20 _ 88 ___124 ____ 618 RJay ____________________90 _100_ 70 __ 260 __ 80 _100_ 70 __ 250 __ 510 ___ 20 _ 30 _100___150 ____ 660 wxdude64 ______________94 _ 98 _ 76 __ 268 __ 96 _ 96 _ 72 __ 264 __ 532___ 08 _ 44 _ 88 __ 140 ____ 672 ----------------------------------------------- Extreme forecast report DCA _ wxdude64 could win with lowest forecast (-1.7). NYC _ May be a win-loss situation with RJay (-1.5) taking a win and wxdude64 (-1.6) a loss. BOS _ Currently not qualifying. ORD _ wxdude64 could win with lowest forecast (-1.8). ATL _ will not qualify at -1.5, win-loss begins at -1.6 (RodneyS -1.6, Tom -2.1). IAH _ Currently not qualifying. DEN _ Heading for shared win (hudsonvalley21, Roger Smith, +2.4). PHX _ Heading for a win (hudsonvalley21 +2.5). SEA _ Currently not qualifying. summary _ 5 of 9 likely to qualify, 3 with coldest forecast, 2 with warmest.
  3. Congrats to wxdude64 on winning this contest. He is also leading the hurricane forecast contest (in the tropical weather forum) and would remain in a tie for first if we happen to pick up one more tropical storm that does not become a hurricane. His prediction was 19/7/4 and the seasonal count is 21/7/4. That contest included 30 forum members from various regional forums, and the NHC and CSU forecasts were also scored.
  4. This will be the final monthly contest for 2021 in what has proven to be a fairly close competition. I have added on the winter snowfall contest with the same stations in play as for the past few winters. Note carefully the substitutions for low-snow locations in the temperature contests. For the temperature forecasts, anomalies relative to 1991-2020 normals (F deg) for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and for the snowfall contest, six of those plus three more northern locations ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV deadlines for both contests 06z Dec 1st, some leeway will be allowed for the snowfall contest. Good luck !!
  5. Further to the above, the mudslides that hit BC Highway 99 east of Pemberton have probably caused several casualties, eyewitnesses state that a second mudslide hit a group of people who were stopped by a previous slide, and swept away, fate unknown at this point as search and rescue have to go through the first slide to get to the second one (from either end of the route as there are multiple slides). Since I posted earlier, the storm has moved on with one last blast of strong winds doing considerable damage around Kelowna, BC. My location had some strong gusts around 0100h today but no local damage other than tarps not well enough secured being blown across a residential street.
  6. So to follow up on this second weather disaster, things are actually quite serious in terms of property damage, so far a rather slight casualty toll. As some readers won't be very familiar with BC geography, I will describe what I'm hearing in terms of driving east out of Vancouver which got a lot of rain and some localized but not too severe flooding. As you get further into the Fraser valley it gets worse. The cities of Abbotsford and Chilliwack have scattered neighborhood evacuations due to stream overflows combined with mudslides. The main highway to the interior of BC east of Chilliwack BC is closed at Bridal Falls and if you live in Hope BC you can only go a few miles in any direction as all highways from there are blocked by floods and or mudslides somewhere in the Cascades. Along the north shore of the Fraser, another highway is also blocked in two places. About 30 vehicles were trapped between those two slides last night and the people were rescued by helicopter today. Nobody is known to have been swept away in either slide but from the news footage that looks like a week to two week clean up. Then going further into the mountains from Hope, the main route to Kamloops and Calgary is washed out by severe flooding, and the city of Merritt in the plateau area further northeast is fully evacuated with 3-5 feet of water in most of the town and no drinking water or sewage treatment. That's a community of about 8,000 people. Then on the southern route that goes east from Hope, that highway also washed out in places, and the town of Princeton has seen considerable flooding also from rivers running east from the Cascades. Reports of 8 to 12 inches of rain in total. The rain has moved on and a squall line is approaching my location (which is 250 miles east of Princeton). We have had a very mild day with southerly winds but from the radar it looks like a squall line approaching. Southern Alberta had the chinook today as well as Montana, temps into the low 60s and wind gusts to 70 mph. Looks like even stronger winds could develop as this low is quite intense now, heading inland across the Rockies. So a very expensive storm but lacking any significant death toll to match the summer heat wave casualties which are estimated to be in the 500-800 range in BC.
  7. I live near the US-Canada border in south central BC about 150 miles north of Spokane and 50 miles west of the northwest tip of Idaho. We are at about 4000' elevation on the west side of the Columbia River in a ski resort town (Rossland BC). It is also 25 miles due south of YCG in terms of weather stations (and quite a bit higher, we have mountains to our northwest reaching 8000' in the south Monashee range which is just big hills compared to either the Cascades further west or the Selkirks and Rockies further east. Those all go well above 12,000' in places. This is a heavy snowfall zone most winters and we can have 3 to 6 feet of snow on the ground at times in Dec and Jan. But spring comes fairly early despite all that. And we hit 112 F here in the heat dome last June. Have lived in BC since 1995, mostly down at the coast in Vancouver area. Before that, lived in Ontario in various locations, most recently near Peterborough northeast of Toronto. So as an older person I have memories going back about as far as 1960 for Ontario winters. Despite all the talk about warming, some of those winters were quite tame as well. Others not so much.
  8. Now looking like B.C. may have a second major weather disaster for the year, there has been widespread flooding and landslides in the past two days from the strong "atmospheric river" event still ongoing, will post more info when news reports are more informative, last night it was mostly "we are hearing ... but cannot get into" sorts of stories but basically it seems that multiple small tributaries of the Fraser River have overflowed in various residential areas of the Fraser valley (50 to 100 miles east of Vancouver is where the worst damage is likely to be located). Three major highways are closed by flood and mudslide damage, cutting off all access from the coast to the BC interior by the usual routes, road access through Whistler and Pemberton is still open at last reports. Or you could go through WA state as they are not getting that much rain south of about Bellingham. The border was just opened up the other day for Canadians who wish to drive into the U.S. on non-essential trips, but other than snowbirds heading south to their winter homes or campsites, very few are going yet as there are expensive testing protocols when (or if) we return. And watching the golf from Phoenix yesterday then looking out at the mess of slush on our street, I was thinking, why the heck would I return?
  9. I posted earlier that I was expecting a reasonably active winter pattern to develop for the central and eastern US, probably a lot of variability but some hope for wintry scenarios at times. Now I'm noticing a distinct resemblance to late autumn of 1981 with these very severe rainstorms we are getting here (in BC) -- Nov 1981 had similar episodes. The late autumn of 2006 was very stormy also but not this wet. So if that gives a nod to 1981-82 as one possible analogue then of course it was in that second tier of good winters below the really outstanding ones; not much happened (in the east) during December as I recall since I was living there in 1981, and there was a large-scale pattern change in the new year, severe cold at times, and one or two coastal storms about which I remember very little, the snow largely missed Ontario where I was situated and while it was very cold at times, the ground was almost bare outside the snow belt. Feb 1982 was dry and cold inland too. There was a resumption of severe winter weather in April for about a week. About the severe rainfall event, it has washed out two or three major highways and caused urban mudslides. In Nov 1981 there was a bad situation north of Vancouver on the highway to Whistler where a mountain creek swept away a bridge and several vehicles, since then they redesigned all the bridges so that debris can't block the creeks as happened then. A similar disaster in Oct 2003 a bit further north but that was a heavy rain from a Pacific typhoon remnant and I don't remember the rest of the autumn being very stormy. There is some very mild air getting in from the Pacific now and up to quite a high elevation melting a snowpack that just formed, so the flooding with the 6-8" rainfalls is intensified. Luckily there was a fairly good forecast of this and the highways people closed one highway just before it got over-run by a huge flood -- this is ongoing and it may end up totally obliterating the highway for about a half mile, as a river is now running down one side of the divided highway and the barrier is collecting all the debris as it washes over top of the median. Haven't seen a start of a winter season much like this in the 27 years I have lived out west, so the pattern is a bit extreme at the moment.
  10. You never know with Denver, they can run +4 for three weeks and then lose it all in two or three -25 anomaly days but PHX seems to run either blandly 2-4 above average or quite chilly the odd month, so far this has not been the odd month. This is the hardest I have ever hugged consensus in about ten years of these contests. It might prove to be a good idea.
  11. Anomalies and some projections ... ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th __ (anom 10d) _____-1.8 _ -1.2 _ +0.5 __ -0.2 _ -1.9 _ -3.6 _ +5.1 _ +4.1 _ -0.3 21st __ (anom 20d) _____-1.1 _ -0.6 _ +1.4 __ -0.8 _ -0.6 _ -1.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.5 _ +0.5 11th __ (p anom 20d) ___-1.0 _ -0.8 __ 0.0 __ -2.0 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ +3.0 _ +4.5 _ -0.5 11th __ (p anom 27d) ___ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 0.0 __ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.0 _ -1.0 21st __ (p anom 30d) ___ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ +0.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ +3.0 _ +4.0 __ 0.0 26th __ (p anom 30d) ___ -2.0 _ -1.5 __0.0 __ -2.0 _ -1.5 _ +0.5 _ +5.0 _ +5.0 _ 0.0 ___________ 11th _ A rather cold start for parts of the eastern and central states, and also the Pac NW, but mild in the southwest ... after a few warmer days in the east, this pattern looks set to reload but with enough variability to keep anomalies quite close to zero. The longer term projection maintains the same trends since the output of the GFS for days 11-16 looks about the same. The size of the anomalies is scaled down in that more distant interval. 21st _ Some colder days ahead for most eastern and central locations, although with fairly mild intervals moderating the overall impact on current anomalies which are already slightly negative in most of those places. Continued fairly mild in the west. 26th _ Reset the end of month predictions for provisional scoring to begin.
  12. Okay, for whatever reason the width on screen has more or less returned to normal and the tables are now much more legible as they generally don't wrap now. If somebody did something, thanks. Will continue to monitor in case it goes back to the narrower screen.
  13. This would get the name Adria if they do name it, as you know, Greek letters were shown the door and now we have a supplementary list which has these names -- Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery and Foster. As it might be a hurricane right away, the count could be 22/8/4 if there is in fact a name given. (current count being 21/7/4).
  14. Well the convention in other contests that I enter (and one that has been going for many years and that is not scored by me in one case) is to treat all similar forecasts as separate entities and in all probability BKViking (who is a regular in the temperature forecast contest) never noticed that he was making the same forecast as wxwatcher007, or else did notice and agreed that was the call to make. The convention in those other contests is to rank the identical forecasts from earliest to latest entry which I did not do here (yet). I see your point but just to let you know that this scoring convention is fairly well established in weather contests and not something I introduced here for the first time. (later edit _ I went and had a look, realized that in fact it would make no difference to anything if I went with this suggestion, so I have edited in the changed ranks and also removed some gaps in the table that served no actual purpose. ... so now it is ranked the way NC89 suggests.) Also by the way there was no actual reason for that gap in the scoring table, it wasn't on my screen but what I see and what gets posted sometimes not the same thing. I can probably just edit the table to show the ranks the way you suggest with an asterisk noting that two forecasts are at the same rank. But be prepared if you enter other contests in other places, that's how they normally handle identical forecasts. I suppose the cases I had in mind would deal with duplicate values on a regular basis, for example, one temperature value and fifty to a hundred entrants, you will always have clusters of multiple entrants at one value. And in my experience you finish ranked behind all of them if their errors are smaller. But what can you do when there are more entrants than plausible entry points? With this contest the complexity is greater so that 30 people could all choose unique forecasts. On the other hand, I don't think there is anything basically wrong with placing an identical forecast, if this is what you think is going to happen, it's your best effort and the fact that somebody else thought the same thing might not be any contributing factor. Some people in past years have repeated the NHC or CSU numbers, would we penalize that or simply view it as prudent forecasting, after all, whose numbers should be best, me at my desk here in the middle of nowhere, or some established expert(s) being paid millions to do this sort of work? (so why do some of us, well let's not go there) ....
  15. Later guesses for the other three won't be eliminated until at least one other station goes in this window of opportunity, as most of those who scored well on IAD have similar dates for BWI and some also for RIC. My thought that it would resemble 1963 has suffered from a fast forward, we had the warm dry three weeks and the warm wet week all compressed into one month now Nov 2021 looking a bit too much like some colder analogues, wouldn't go with my present guesses now but could get lucky I suppose. There's a mountain of hot air from central DC, somebody should look into the reasons for that.
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