Roger Smith

___ The history of the contest (with personal best scores) __ updated to Sep 2025 ___ Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month. In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ... month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492 MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64 APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13 MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem* ___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64 AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW) NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 __ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet. In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532 MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1 APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters) MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 ) JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794 JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592) AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716 OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd) NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ __ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ... month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542 FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503 APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756 MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495 JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1 AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed) SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644 NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd) DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most) The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd).462 Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. * Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. _______________________ 2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64 FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446 MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637 APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658 JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756) AUG ______ 646 __ RJay SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active. 2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1 FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second. APR _______ 628 __ RJay MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest) JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj JUL ________778 __ RJay AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627 NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017 DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1 The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 2018 As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1 JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393) ____________________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1) 2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21 FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550 MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586 NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8) ... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner) MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) JUL _______ 664 _ RJay AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point. OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660 NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ ___ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 ________________________________________ RJay had the best differential. 2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread). OCT _______656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty) NOV _______685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 DEC _______518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927) __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0. 2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1 MAR ______ 756 _ Tom APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty) JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back iso DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are 18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657 MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720 JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1 SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen) NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 _____ Don S wins four seasons contest, wxallannj second DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _________________________ RJay (18-1) wins extreme forecast contest _____________ Don S wins annual contest (7399), wxallannj second (7170) =========================================== 2024 _ JAN _______ 674 _ Rodney S FEB _______ 613 _ rainsucks __ wxallannj (554) MAR ______ 762 _ RJay (758 DonS) APR _______ 794 _ Roger S (774 wxall5annj _ p.b.) __________ RodneyS wins snowfall contest (DonS 2nd) MAY _______ 738 _ wxallannj JUN ________ 737 _ Rhino16__ Scotty L (596) JUL ________ 704 _ Roger S AUG ________692 _ Roger S ___ seasonal max winner Tom SEP ________ 664 _ RJay ___ persistence (706) only win against field so far (not tracked before 2023) OCT ________665 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ RodneyS (540) NOV ________688 _ Roger S _____ four seasons winner wxallannj DEC ________675 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ BKViking (659) ____ wxallannj annual winner, DonS 2nd ___________________ Scotty Lightning wins extreme forecasts 9-0 (RS 9-3, rainsucks 9-3) 2025 ___ Persistence joined the contest for 2024 and 2025, the scores for persistence tend to be in a similar range to Normal and behind the regular forecasters who enter all months. An otherwise un-noted highlight of the year was that yoda entered all autumn, contests and finished second in total points for the season. JAN ____ wxdude64 599 FEB _____ Roger Smith 674 MAR ____ Tom 703 APR _____ Stormchaser Chuck 710 snowfall __ hudsonvalley21 MAY ____ RodneyS 714 JUN ____ Tom 788 JUL ____ Roger Smith 800 AUG ____ RodneyS 650 seasonal max __ RJay SEP _____ Roger Smith, Scotty Lightning 738 OCT ____ RodneyS 690 NOV ___ RJay 701 four seasons _ tied win for RJay, so_whats_happening DEC ___ wxallannj 481 Tom won the annual contest with total score 7441; so_whats_happening was 2nd (as well as Consensus which almost scooped the annual title, held off in the final month by Tom) in the extreme forecasts Roger Smith 16-2 edged out RodneyS 11-3 when tied results reduced scores to 11.5-2.0 vs 11.0-3.0. _______________________________________________________________ Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2025 By Dec 2025, 144 contests and 12 years of contests are now complete. This table will be updated during 2026 contest year. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current (to 2023) eleven (now twelve) regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck until 2024, Rhino16 or rainsucks, yoda in 2025 etc), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ eleven years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win. Best monthly score over twelve years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name. Wins in 2013 not counted in table, as formats were different. RodneyS won contest in 2013. ..................... .................... .......................... ........................... ^ note: RJay 1.0 wins in Four Seasons = two tied wins FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _+field__ total ___ Wins (Yr)_+field_total _ Snow _ Summer _ Extreme _ Four Seasons DonSutherland1 (802) __ 22 _____ 8.5 ___30.5 ______ 3 _____ 1 ____ 4 _____ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 2.5, 1, 3.5 __ RodneyS (794) __________22 ______ 5 ____ 27 _______ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 _____3,1,4 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 4 ____ Roger Smith (808) ______21.5 ____ 2.5 ___ 24.0 _____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 7 ________ 0 ____ RJay (778) ______________ 15 ______ 3 _____18________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 _______ 2 _____2, 0.5, 2.5 __1.0, 0, 1.0^ __ wxallannj (770) __________9.5 ______4 ____ 13.5 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 2 ____ wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5____ 7.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_____ 5 _______ 0 _____--_____ 0 ______ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 3.5 ___8.0 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 _______0,1,1 _____ 0 ________ 0 ____ Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____4.5 ______ 1 ____ 5.5______ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 _____ 1 _______ 1 ________ 1 ________ 0 ____ Tom (778) _________________4 ______ 1 _____ 5 _______ 1______ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1, 1, 2 ____ 2 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ StormchaserChuck (724) _4 ______ --_____ 4 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Maxim (698) ______________3 ______--_____ 3 _______ 0 _____--______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0.5 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ rainsucks (725) ___________3 ______ --_____ 3 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ____2.5*_____ 0______ 0 _____0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________0.5, 0, 0.5 Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ____ 2 ________ 0 _____ --_____0 _____ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____ Stebo (712)_______________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Rhino16 (737) _____________2 _______--_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5____ 2.5 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 _____ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____ Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 1 _____ -- _____ 1 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ OHweather (754) __________ 1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Snoski14 ___________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mercurial __________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ --_____ 0 _____ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Orangeburg Wx (682) ______1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Yoda (690) _________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ____ 0.5 _______ 0 _____ -- _____0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ mikehobbyst _______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CCM _______________________ 0 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____0 _____ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ * so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. (following not counted against wins above) Consensus (756) ___________ 2 Normal (720) _______________ 4 Persistence (706) __________ 1 Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. UPDATED to DEC 2025 and FOUR SEASONS, ANNUAL and EXTREME FORECASTS 2025

I will update that history of the contest post which is currently in Dec 2024 contest thread, and post it here soon...

Scoring is now complete for the month and the year. Congrats to Tom for winning the annual contest, despite being closely tracked by several in the chase pack, so_whats_happening was second and RJay third, Don Sutherland fourth, then hudsonvalley21 and wxallannj close at 5th and 6th. The extreme forecast result was quite close also, my total is a bit higher than Rodney S but I also had more losses, so it's pretty close to a tied result there. Looking at best scores one can see in general that the lower portion of the regular entrants tend to go a little more to extremes and so while there are more best scores and extreme forecast results for them, there must also be quite a few busted forecasts with a net result of lower total scores. This past month, if anyone had foreseen the very large positive anomalies at DEN and PHX, and prevented max-60 scoring, they could have moved up by around 150 points but even that alone would not have quite defeated Tom's campaign, assuming it was one of the top four who did that; had I done it, I would have moved up one rank. Oddly enough the extreme western cold that I was predicting materialized over most of western Canada, Edmonton had an anomaly of about -10 F for December. But that cold remained largely in place with some occasional forays towards the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. ... the data for central U.S. locations reveals a generally very cold month with one week of extreme warmth 22nd to 28th. ORD averaged -3.5, but was +14.3 for that week. Don S pointed out in another thread that STL had their largest one-day temperature drop (or daily range) ever in December (on the 27th).

Glad to see all of you wanting to continue, will perhaps send invites to some part-time participants of recent times too. You can edit any of those forecasts up until afternoon of Jan 2nd when I start working on a table of forecasts. A lot of the scoring work for last year's contest has been done, just adjusting a few numbers as final data reports come in. ORD was -3.5 with a +14.3 week 22nd to 28th. Now that's bizarre.

== ::: [] <<< Annual Scoring for 2025 contest year >>> [] ::: == FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS Tom _________________ 801 _829 _920__2550__816 _754 _762__2332 _4882 __815 _858 _886__2559__7441 ___ Consensus ______763 _793 _860_ 2416 __804 _854 _778_ 2436 _4852__770_868_942__2580__7432 so_whats_happening _799 _807 _808__2414__814 _854 _721__ 2389 _4803 __767 _802 _906__2475__ 7278 RJay _________________ 710 _784 _843__2337__844 _904 _776__2524 _4861 __724 _765 _859__2348__ 7209 DonSutherland1 ______ 693 _743 _834__2270__810 _842 _732__2384 _4654 __836 _792 _880__2508__ 7162 hudsonvalley21 _______683 _744 _828__2255__718 _846 _775__2339 _4594 __787 _812 _906__2505__ 7099 wxallannj _____________679 _701 _782 __2162__682 _806 _800__2288 _4450 __821 _884 _935__2640__ 7090 Scotty Lightning ______746 _812 _778__2336__663 _758 _772__2193 _4529 __716 _854 _882__2452___6981 RodneyS _____________ 808 _777 _870__2455__656 _594 _730__1980 _4435__756 _738_1028__2522___6957 wxdude64 ____________722 _755 _768__2245__532_ 648 _612__1792 _4037__708 _778 _944__2430___6467 Roger Smith __________674 _777 _814__2265__724 _626 _694__2044 _4309__563 _774 _813__2150___6459 ----------------- ___ Normal ____________722 _748 _756 __2226 __586 _556 _441__1583__3809 __716 _656 _850__2222__6031 -------------- StormchaserChuck ___585 _624 _662 __1871 __482 _682 _ 587__1751 _ 3622 __667 _698 _687__2052___5674 - - - (10/12) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __ 6808 BKViking (10/12) ______ 542 _566 _653 __1761 __592 _724 _546__1862 _3623 __635 _698 _705__2038__ 5661 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6793 Yoda _(4/12) ___________236 _262 _282 __ 780 __ 278 _ 258 _280 __816 _1596 __283 _298 _324 __905__2501 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __7503 maxim (2/12) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6666 Ephesians2 _ (2/12) ____ 66 _132 _142 __ 340 ___102 _ 66 _ 120 _ 288 ___628 _ 105 _194 _182 ___481 ____1109 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6654 Persistence ___________500 _599 _726 __1825 ___404 _540 _770 _1710 _3535__628 _680 _822 __2130___5665 __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 3^ __ 1 ___3 ___2^ __2^___1 ___2^___0 __ 2 ___2^__ 2___2 _Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 2*__ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1___ 0___0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 2^^ _1 ___ 2 ___0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___2^__2^^__3^^__4__ 1 ___ 2^__ 2^*__2^^__1___ 1 _Nov Don Sutherland 1 _______2 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1___ 1 ___0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __1^ __ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2^ __ 2^__1^___1 ___1 _Dec Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___ 1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 3^ __ 3 ___2 __ 2^ __1^ __ 3___3 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____3 _ May,Aug,Oct wxdude64 _____________ 2 __ 3^__ 1*___2___0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __1^ __ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________2^__5^^__3^__ 3 __ 3 ___3^^__3^^__1___2 ___1^__ 3^^__0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 2^^__1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ___1 ___3^^*__0___0___0 ___ Normal _____________ 3 __ 2 ___1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 maxim __________________1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0___0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 Ephesians2 _____________0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 Mercurial _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) (wxallannj has a best forecast for IAH where Mercurial also has one awarded - regular forecaster rule) Extreme forecasts _ 65 of 108 ... 35 for warmest and 30 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6, Sep 5-1, Oct 2-3, Nov 5-1, Dec 5-3. (table scoring order is by adjusted totals for ties) (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct_Nov_Dec __ Total___adj for ties Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0_0-0_2 *-0_2-0__16-2__11.5 - 2.0 Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 _1-1 __0-0 _0-0 __ 12-3___11.0 - 3.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 9-2 __ 9.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 8-1 ____6.5 - 1.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0_0-0 _2*-0_4*-0_ 7-0__ 6.5 - 0.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_2*-0_ 0-0 _1-0 __7-1 ___ 6.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 _ 2*-0 _1-1 _1-0 __ 7-2 ____5.83-2.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0_1*-0_3**0_0-0 __8-0 ___4.5-0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 5-3 ___ 4.0 - 3.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 0-0_1-1 _ 2-1 _0-0 __ 3-2 ___ 3.0 - 2.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __2-0 ___1.5 - 0.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _0-0 _0-1 __ 2-2 ____1.33-2.0 Mercurial ______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 _ -1.5 _ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

A relatively dry year, 39.57" plus anything that falls later today, 40th driest of 157 years at NYC, and drier than all since 1981 (25th driest 38.11") except for 2001 (11th driest 35.65"), 2012 (28th driest 38.51") and 32nd driest 1985 (38.85").

Don, where does 2025-26 sit now in your winter severity index?

Temperatures briefly moderated in southwestern Manitoba, s SK and North Dakota, generally a little above freezing today, back into the deep freeze up there tonight. The milder air is making limited inroads into nw Ontario and Winnipeg region has warmed only into the mid-20s (F).

(version 2, Dec 2025 scores _ max 60 scoring adjustments) <<< Max 60 applied to IAH, DEN, PHX scores only >>> For contest integrity, eleven regular forecasters are scored 0 to 60 with 11 intervals ... levels can be boosted by as much as 4 to reduce steps to closest approximation to raw score differentials. Mercurial, Normal, Consensus and Persistence scores are then calculated from comparison to the regular-contestant-generated scores. Scores altered by max-60 calculations have this symbol ^ ... scores without the symbol were either higher raw scores or zero scores unchanged. Most IAH scores are not boosted as raw scores were higher than the progression. This could change if IAH anomaly is higher than my projected +4.0F. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ east _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOT wxallannj ______________________ 32 _ 19 _ 38 _089 _ 44 _ 82_ 60^_186 _275 _ 60^_ 60^_ 86 _206__481 DonSutherland1 ________________32 _ 37 _ 52 _121 _ 96 _ 84_ 54^_ 234 _355 _ 54^_ 28^_ 38 _120 __475 BKViking _______________________36 _ 23 _ 46 _105 _ 64 _ 84_ 44 _192 _297 _ 52^_ 60^_ 66 _178 __ 475 RJay ___________________________ 52 _ 37 _ 52 _141 _ 90 _ 90 _ 30 _210 _ 351_ 34^_ 40^_ 46 _120 __ 471 Tom ____________________________50 _ 51 _ 68 _169 _ 92 _ 48 _ 30 _ 170 _339 _ 22^_ 40^_ 58 _120__ 459 so_whats_happening __________ 40 _ 23 _ 44 _107 _ 82 _ 82_ 44 _208 _315 _40^_ 52^_ 48 _140 __ 455 ___ Consensus ________________38 _ 31 _ 48 _ 117 _86 _ 82_ 42 _210 _327_ 34^_ 40^_ 46 _ 120 __447 wxdude64 _____________________100 _ 59 _ 78 _ 237 _ 76 _ 16 _06 _098 _335_ 06^_ 16^_ 82 _104__ 439 RodneyS _______________________ 84 _ 57 _ 58 _199 _ 76 _ 16_ 38 _ 130 _ 329 _ 52^_ 10^_ 46 _108__ 437 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 62 _100_ 50 _212 _212_ 16^_ 46^_ 30 _092__ 304 Roger Smith ____________________92 _ 73 _ 98_ 263_ 52_ 00_ 00 _052 _315 _ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 315 Scotty Lightning _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _002 _ 50 _ 76_ 40_ 166 _168 _ 34^_ 22^_ 46 _102__ 270 Mercurial ______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 40 _ 76_ 66^_ 182 _182_ 05^_ 00 _ 06 _011__ 193 ____ Normal ____________________12 _ 00 _ 12 _ 024 _ 30 _ 66 _ 20 _ 110 _134 __ 16^_ 06^_ 36 _058__ 192 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ 04 _ 13 _ 22 _039 _ 00 _ 64 _78^_ 142 _181_ 80^_ 80^_ 78 _238 __419 (Extreme forecasts _ see previous post)

Another record that fell was Toronto (city) daily rainfall and precip record for December 28th. The daily precip record (28.7 mm) from the 1968 snowfall record of 11.3" was broken in 2025 by the 37.3 mm rainfall (1.47") that also broke the (relatively weak) 1863 rainfall record 0.52" (13.2 mm). Many other daily rainfall records are closer to the 2025 mark and it was not an all-time monthly record, that being 1.95" (5th 1870). The only other higher daily records were 1.81" (3rd, 1841) and 1.75" (9th also 1841), so it can be said that yesterday's rainfall was the fourth greatest daily amount in December, and largest in 155 years. It barely exceeded a fall of 1.46" on the previous date in 1942. (The 1841 events may have been over longer intervals than the calendar day, some 1841-42 data are listed as cumulative totals). Unlike U.S. climate records as available, Canadian daily climate records separate out rain and snow when various amounts fall as part of a daily precip total. Unfortunately since 2017 Toronto city has only reported daily precip and snow on ground so I now need to apply conversions myself to the data, but Toronto airport still has the full breakdown and I believe all or nearly all of the precip on the 28th was rain, some probably freezing rain at first. There had been a snowfall of about 5-6 inches on Boxing Day. The 1968 daily record snowfall added several more inches on the previous day and was around 14" in total. I recall the event from my own observing near Toronto and it was a sleety kind of snowstorm with some ice pellets in the mix. Today's record daily snowfall of 15.0" is from Dec 1855! The airport daily record is probably a lot lower because its data only begin in 1938. Today's daily record rainfall was 1.34" from 1940.

A century ago the phrase "silver thaw" was used to describe the conditions being reported in n NE today. I am not sure when that went out of the vocabulary but it was even inserted into official documents of weather data in the 1920s and earlier.

Lake effect blizzard conditions will develop rapidly across lower MI tonight and SW Ontario by morning. Heavy snow squalls with winds gusting to 55-60 mph will quickly make many highways impassable, unprepared drivers are going to be stranded in dangerous situations. I am not sure how much awareness has been created by public forecasts of these rapidly oncoming changes. Given the way the low is deepening and severe cold phasing into the circulation, and still fairly warm temps Lakes Michigan and Huron, potential for emergency situations is high. This will spread to parts of central ON, nwPA and wNY by late morning and upstate NY by afternoon-evening. Goderich to London ON needs a max alert as NW winds funnel mega-squall conditions directly across the London region. My guess is 401 will be closed or at least impassable from Chatham to Woodstock by 0900h.

Preliminary scoring for December 2025 (version 1, raw scores only) _ note for raw scores in anomalies greater than +5 or -5, error deductions are 1 pt per 0.1 error in range 5.0 to actual, and raw scores are no lower than 0.1 per correct-sign predicted 0.1 deg. When an anomaly exceeds 10.0, scores are then based on a proportional basis, for example, a +5.5 forecast against an +11.0 outcome scores 50 (raw). As another example, a forecast of +0.7 scores 07 if that is higher than the raw score would otherwise be. ... then a max-60 rule is invoked if no raw score is above 60. These max 60 scores are generally in equal increments from zero to 60, adjusted by fairness considerations when compared to the spread of raw scores. I have some objective rules that I try to apply to that adjustment but with contest results perhaps depending on exactly what the details will be (you can see DEN, PHX scores and possibly IAH will need adjustments), I will just give you the raw scores now and will be working out how adjustments affect the overall annual outcome. No idea in advance what that's going to look like (although I can't see potential for outcome to be changed by the max-60 adjustments) ... <<< Raw scores only >>> note: these are updated although the next post with adjusted scores is the basis for contest scoring FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ east _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOT Mercurial ______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 40 _ 76 _ 60_ 176 _176_ 00 _ 00 _ 06 _006__ 182 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 62 _100 _ 50_ 212 _212_ 04 _ 18 _ 30 _052__ 264 Scotty Lightning _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _002 _ 50 _ 76 _ 40_ 166 _168_ 09 _ 10 _ 46 _065__ 233 ____ Normal ____________________ 12 _ 00 _ 12 _024 _ 30 _ 66 _ 20 _ 116 _140__ 00 _ 00 _36 _036__ 176 wxallannj ______________________ 32 _ 19 _ 38 _089 _ 44 _ 82 _ 54 _178 _267 _ 18 _ 22 _ 86 _126__ 393 DonSutherland1 ________________32 _ 37 _ 52 _121 _ 96 _ 84 _ 52 _232 _353 _ 13 _ 11 _ 38 _062 __ 415 BKViking _______________________36 _ 23 _ 46 _105 _ 64 _ 84 _ 44 _192 _297 _ 12 _ 22 _ 66 _100 __ 397 ___ Consensus ________________38 _ 31 _ 48 _ 117 _ 86 _ 80 _ 42 _208 _325_ 09 _ 15 _ 46 _070__395 so_whats_happening __________ 40 _ 23 _ 44 _ 107 _ 82 _ 82 _ 44 _208 _315 _ 10 _ 21 _ 48 _079__ 371 Tom ____________________________50 _ 51 _ 68 _ 169 _ 92 _ 48 _ 30 _170 _ 339 _ 06 _ 15 _ 58 _079__ 418 RJay ___________________________ 52 _ 37 _ 52 _141 _ 90 _ 90 _ 30 _210 _ 351 _ 09 _ 15 _ 46 _070__ 421 RodneyS _______________________ 84 _ 57 _ 58 _199 _ 76 _ 16 _ 38 _130 _ 329 _ 12 _ 05 _ 46 _063__ 392 Roger Smith ____________________ 92 _ 73 _ 98_ 263_ 52 _ 00 _ 00 _052 _315_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 315 wxdude64 _____________________100 _ 59 _ 78 _ 237 _ 76 _ 16 _ 06 _098 _335_ 00 _ 08 _ 72 _080__ 415 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ 04 _ 13 _ 22 _039 _ 08 _ 64 _ 72_ 144 _183_ 52 _ 54 _ 78 _184 __367 EXTREME FORECASTS DCA (-4.4) _ wxdude wins with lowest forecast of -4.4 NYC (-5.0), BOS (-4.4) _ Roger Smith wins with lowest forecasts of -3.8, -4.5 ORD (-3.5) _ was just outside a win-loss outcome (5th lowest forecast -3.3 high score) ... outcomes below -4.1 would have made it a win-loss (RodneyS, wxdude64 win; Roger Smith loss) ... one week of the month (22-28) averaged +14.3 and the rest therefore averaged -8 F. ATL (+1.7) _ win for hudsonvalley21 (+1.7), loss for DonSutherland1 (+2.5). IAH (+4.0), DEN (+11.1), PHX (+7.4), SEA (+3.0) _ four wins for wxallannj with high forecasts, Mercurial also (as non-regular entrant for IAH). BKViking ties for PHX. ===================== <<< RAW SCORES for DEN and PHX will need converting to max-60, IAH possibly also but adjustments there would be very small anyway >>> Will adjust around end of month and merge with annual scoring ... given the lead Tom had before this month I cannot see how the raw-score to max-60 adjustments can remove enough of his differential to make much difference to what currently looks like Tom maintaining a 150-200 point advantage over nearest rivals. (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Mercurial ______________________ +4.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 __-0.5 _+0.5 _+2.0___ -1.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.5 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ -1.6 _+1.7 _ +1.5 ___ +0.4 _+1.8 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ -1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ______________________ -1.0 _ -1.1 __-1.3 ___ -0.7 _+0.8 _+1.7 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 DonSutherland1 ________________-1.0 _ -2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.3 _+2.5 _+1.6 ___+1.4 _+1.1 _ +0.1 BKViking _______________________-1.2 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ___ -1.7 _+0.9 _+1.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.2 _+1.5 ___ Consensus ________________ -1.3 _ -1.7 _-1.8 ___ -2.8 _+0.7 _ +1.1 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __________ -1.4 _ -1.3 _ -1.6 ___ -2.6 _+0.8 _+1.2 ___+1.1 _ +2.1 _ +0.6 Tom ____________________________-1.9 _ -2.7 _-2.8 ___ -3.9 _-0.9 _+0.5 ___+0.6 _+1.5 _+1.1 RJay ___________________________ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.0 _+1.2 _+0.5 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 RodneyS _______________________ -3.6 _-3.0 _-2.3 ___-4.7 _-2.5 _+0.9 ___+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith ____________________-4.0 _-3.8 _-4.5 __ -5.9 _ -3.3 _ -1.5 ___-3.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.4 wxdude64 ______________________-4.4 _-3.1 _-3.3 __ -4.7 _ -2.5 _ -0.7 ___-0.9 _+0.8 _+2.3 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ +0.4 _-0.8 _-0.5 __+1.1 _+3.5 _+5.4 ___+5.7 _+3.9 _+2.1 =====================

As I was told, ORD did not stay that close to -6 F above normal but they didn't get into the real core of that crazy warmth that is now about to get the boot east ... it has played havoc with my ATL and IAH estimates and DEN has stayed well above +10 just turning cold yesterday. Think the final values now look like being around -5.0 _ -5.0 _ -5.0 __ -4.0 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 ___ +10.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 will present some preliminary scoring on that basis, going to need to figure out max-60 mercy rule scoring for the western locations. The actual values for Dec 2025 (and Persistence entry for Jan 2026) are as follows ... some of these may change by 0.1 or so, as they are calculations from 30 days CF6 and 31st climate summary. By later Jan 1st I will have edited these to be actual anomalies as reported. DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -4.4 _ -5.3 _ -4.4 __ -3.5 _ +1.7 _ +4.0 ___ +11.1 _ +7.4 _ +3.2