Roger Smith

Check back for updates, I don't entirely trust the NYC or EWR numbers, ranks are not likely to change much if at all.

Scoring (preliminary) _ Allsnow Blizzard snow predictions _ Feb 22-23 2026 ... these are based on preliminary estimates of final totals as shown ... ... note EWR has a lower total than was being shown earlier, perhaps this will be adjusted again later ... it resulted in a change from earlier calculations in the top two low error squared totals as well as several other rankings. RANK _FORECASTER ________ NYC_LGA_ISP_JFK_EWR _________ (error sq) ____ (errors) _________ TOTAL _ rank __________ actual storm totals ______ 19.7 _22.5 _29.1 _20.1 _25.1 _01__MJ0812__________________19.4_22.0_27.4_22.7_21.3 ______ ____24.43 ___ 0.3 _0.5 _1.7 _2.6 _3.8 ___ 8.9 _ 1 _02__hudsonvalley21 _________ 18.9_19.7_26.2_23.7_24.4 ______ ____ 30.34 ___ 0.8 _2.8 _2.9 _3.6 _0.7 __ 10.8 _ 2 _03__NsWx516 _______________ 18.0_20.0_25.0_21.0_23.0 ______ ____31.17_____ 2.0 _2.0 _5.0 _2.0 _6.0 __ 11.3 _ 3 _04__hmdeutsch98 ___________ 21.1_22.2_24.8_18.1_20.8 ______ ____43.03 ___ 1.4 _ 0.3 _4.3 _2.0 _4.3 __ 12.3 _ 4 _05__dmillz25 _________________21.1_20.6_24.6_19.6_20.5 ______ ____47.23 ____ 1.4 _1.9 _4.5 _0.5 _4.6 ___ 12.9 _ 5 _06__UKWeatherGeek ________ 22.4_23.2_23.7_19.4_21.1 ______ ___ 53.43 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _5.4 _0.7 _4.0 ___ 13.5 _ 6 _07__CPcantmeasuresnow_____19.8_ 19.4_24.5_21.0_19.6 ______ ___ 61.84 ____ 0.1 _3.1 _ 4.6 _0.9 _5.5 ___ 14.2 _ 7 _08__jaysoner _________________17.8_19.9_ 23.5_20.6_20.5 ______ ___63.14 ____ 1.9 _2.6 _5.6 _0.5_4.6 __ 15.2 _ 10 _(08)__ NWS 07z fcsts _______20.0_21.5_23.3_22.9_20.5 ___ ___ 63.73____ 0.3 _1.0 _5.8 _2.8 _4.6 __ 12.9 _ (5) _09__WeatherGeek2025 _____ 21.0_21.0_26.0_22.0_18.0 ______ ____ 67.57 _____ 1.3 _1.5 _3.1 _1.9 _ 7.1 ___ 14.9 _ 9 _10__kat5hurricane ___________25.2_23.8_30.1_26.5_24.7 _____ ____74.06 _____ 5.5 _1.3 _ 1.0 _6.4 _0.4___ 14.6 _ 8 (11)____Consensus (median)__18.0_19.2_23.6_20.0_19.0 ______ ____ 81.25 _____ 1.7 _3.3 _5.5 _ 0.1_ 6.1 ___ 16.7 _(11) _11__NegNAO _________________15.8_17.9_27.5_22.6_18.5 _______ ___ 88.74 _____ 3.9 _4.6 _1.6 _2.5_6.6 __ 19.2 _ t-14 _12__JM1220 _________________ 18.4_19.1_23.2_20.6_18.7 _______ ___ 89.27 _____ 1.3 _3.4 _5.9 _0.5_6.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11 _13__A_Status _________________17.2_18.4_23.8_21.2_18.9 _______ ___ 90.80 _____ 2.5 _4.1 _5.3 _ 1.1 _6.2 ___ 19.2 _ t-14 _14__Stormlover74 ___________ 18.7_20.2_21.3 _19.1_ 19.7 _______ ___ 97.29 _____ 1.0 _2.3 _7.8 _ 1.0 _5.4 ___ 17.5 _ t-11 _15__DonSutherland1 _________17.8_18.5_23.0_20.0_18.0 _______ ___ 107.24 _____ 1.9 _4.0 _6.1 _ 0.1_ 7.1 ___ 19.2 _ t-14 _16__Northshorekid __________ 19.8_19.2_22.8_20.9_17.4 _______ ___110.52 _____ 0.1 _3.3 _6.3 _0.8_ 7.7 ___ 18.2 _ 13 _17__RJay ____________________ 17.0_19.0_ 21.0_20.0_19.0 _______ ___ 122.37 _____ 2.7 _3.5 _8.1 _0.1_6.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18 _18__brooklynwx99 __________ 18.6_19.2_21.1 _20.3_18.1 _______ ___ 125.14 _____ 1.1 _3.3 _8.0 _0.2_ 7.0 ___ 19.6 _ 17 _19__Prue11 ___________________ 15.0_18.0_23.0_17.0_19.0 _______ ___ 126.37 _____ 4.7 _4.5 _6.1 _3.1_ 6.1 ___ 24.5 _ 21 _20__Snowlover11 _____________18.0_19.0_22.0_20.0_17.0 ______ ___ 131.17 ______ 1.7 _ 3.5 _7.1 _0.1 _ 8.1 ___ 20.5 _ t-18 _21__hooralph _________________15.1_18.2_22.5_19.8_17.5 _______ ___ 141.06 _____ 4.6 _4.3 _6.6 _0.3_ 7.6 ___ 23.4 _ 20 _22__Juliancolton _____________13.4_15.7_24.0_16.2_21.3 _______ ___ 141.59 _____ 6.3 _6.8 _5.1 _3.9_ 3.8 ___ 25.9 _ 23 _23__SACRUS _________________16.0_17.4_20.0_19.1_18.6 _______ ___ 165.76 _____ 3.7 _5.1 _9.1 _1.0_ 6.5 ___ 25.4 _ 22 _24__Roger Smith ____________ 16.5_17.0_23.9_14.5_16.8 _______ ___ 167.78 _____3.2 _5.5 _5.2 _5.6_ 8.3 ___ 27.8 _ 24 _25__coastalplainsnowman___ 28.0_30.0_31.0_29.0_32.0 _____ ___ 255.57 _____8.3 _7.5 _1.9 _8.9 _6.9 ___ 33.5 _ 26 _26__ TriPOL __________________29.8_25.0_32.0_33.0_26.0 ____ ___ 283.89 ____ 10.1 _2.5 _2.9_12.9 _0.9 ___ 29.3 _ 25 _27__BxEngine ________________ 12.3_14.9_22.0_17.5_12.8 _______ ___320.98 _____ 7.4 _7.6 _7.1 _2.6_ 12.3 ___ 37.0 _ 27 _28__Stormpc _________________ 11.8_14.4_16.7_ 12.0_14.8 _______ ___453.48 _____ 7.9 _8.1 _12.4 _8.1_10.3 ___ 46.8 _ 28 _29__WintryMixmaster ________ 12.9_13.0_15.8_13.9_ 13.2 ______ ___ 493.43 _____ 6.8 _9.5_13.3 _6.2_11.9 ___ 47.7 _ 29 _30__dseagull __________________9.4_12.5_16.0_13.3 _11.8 _______ ___ 600.83 _____10.3_10.0_13.1 _6.8_13.3 ___ 53.5 _ 30 <<< FORECASTS (or edits) AFTER THIS POST WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN CONTEST SCORING >>> 30 entries received by deadline consensus does not include NWS forecasts and your rank is not affected by their rank. Scores and rankings that two late entries would have received wannabehippie _____________ 19.5 _ 21.5 _26.5 _ 22.0 _22.5 ________ 18.17 ______ 8.3 __ would have ranked 1st, 1st nesussxwx1 _________________13.8 _ 17.9 _ 18.6 _ 17.0 _ 15.5 ________ 267.99 _____33.7 __ would have ranked 27th, 28th** ** ranks if both late forecasts participated. NOTES: 1. The table above is subject to adjustment if any daily snowfall values as listed so far are changed by tonight's CF6 final. 2. Best forecasts are shown in red highlight (in forecasts and in errors)

It appears that NYC did not add any snow after 1 p.m. (to their report) ... total is still 19.7" in climate summary just issued. I suppose that could be adjusted later. LGA total is now 22.5 ISP total is now 29.1 JFK total is now 20.1 EWR total is now 25.1 ... not sure why today's total does not add up to earlier reports I saw ... will see what all these say at end of day in CF6 documents ...

It takes the moon 29.5 days to orbit the earth (relative to Sun, it takes 27.32 days relative to the fixed star background). These dates and times are 29.5 days apart. Dec 26 2025 18z Jan 25 2026 06z Feb 23 2026 18z Hmm. - - - - Contest scoring will be available about an hour from now, I am awaiting final totals as posted in today's 5 p.m. climate summaries. Scoring is backed up on an excel file so it won't take long to recalculate from some estimates already made.

Thanks for updating, CPetc, I have been working out scoring from approx values similar to your post, and it appears that hudsonvalley21 has a slight lead on MJ0812 in the error squared category, while MJ0812 is a little ahead of hudsonvalley21 in the total error count. Kat5hurricane is third in both (preliminary). I will wait until today's 5 pm climate reports to post these tables already fairly close to being complete. That may or may not be the final values reported at end of day which will be used to verify or adjust the table. Our consensus was quite good and so was the NWS, but both were significantly low for ISP and EWR. These both score around 8th overall (without affecting your forecaster ranks afterwards).

I would have to read 30 pages to find out, but two questions: updated totals at contest sites (have seen ISP and EWR in recent pages), and what happened to the snakes being driven from DC to NYC? Oh and the GFS says "how'm I lookin?"

Tracking center by obs at 44008 (54SE Nantucket) low appears to have passed about 50 miles southeast of that location, in past hour, as pressure has levelled off at 972 mbs and wind backed to NNE (not very strong as it's close to the core). Would therefore estimate center in low 968 at around 40.0N 68.7W and headed for landfall in eastern Nova Scotia late today.

Click on the three dots upper right corner of your post.

Nantucket 54SE buoy reports ENE 43 kt g 54 kt, 38F, 983 mbs and 18' wave heights ... the deepening (!) low will track just south of that location in about six or seven hours. That would suggest the 50-60 mph winds will be pushed up over southeast MA around that time, and could increase to 60-80 mph. There are going to be some brutal conditions in eastern MA, RI and se CT between now and about noon, If you don't already have this bookmarked, here you go ... NDBC - Station 44008 Recent Data

This snowstorm falls during an interval of relatively weak daily snowfall records and 2-day snowfall totals. You may have read earlier that the Feb 22nd record of 6.0" (2008) at NYC was broken (8.8"). Today's record is even weaker, 4.8" fell on Feb 23, 1972. That seems likely to go as well. The record 2d snowfall for Feb 22-23 is already broken too, that was the 6.0" value from 2008 but also 5.8" fell in 2001 (5.5" 22nd + 0.3" 23rd). The record for Feb 24 was also a low one, 6.0" fell in 1907. Following the snowfall in 1972, record high temperatures were set on March 1 and 2. (73F, 72F) ... the remainder of March then turned quite cold and it remained chilly in April, fairly warm in May, and near-record cool in June when Hurricane Agnes did its inland loop. I recall that later into spring 2008 there was a succession of heavy snowfalls into northern New England and eastern Canada.

6.5" PHL and 6.9" ACY to midnight did not quite break 2001 date records close to 7 in.

No, but some drifts may exceed 8 feet. I assume it's a fun question about those amounts, but I would say local max to 36 inches is possible, 30 almost certain. Think it's already pretty obvious where in NJ and central LI, and would say (like BOX is forecasting) inland SE Mass. Can you wring 12 inches out of this? Seems a rather compact if potent storm. I already said 23 inches for BOS yesterday, sticking to that.

The 500 mb low has not quite captured the coastal yet and it is supposed to drop from 528 to 510 overnight while the surface low drops from maybe 990 at present to 970 or a bit lower. You would have to say that promises all-out mayhem on radar across Long Island and later SE Mass before morning.

Did you know ... back in 1888 the people of New York City got a weather forecast from the U.S. Weather Bureau in Washington DC that was sent by telegraph. The blizzard of 1888 knocked down the telegraph lines so the newspaper never got the Sunday afternoon forecast calling for a heavy snowstorm! (also, The DC to NYC train got stuck in NJ in big snow drifts). So when it started to rain Sunday evening and that turned to snow, few had any idea what was about to happen (20 to 40 inches of snow across the region). But the storm WAS forecast by the existing technology (it had already started to snow in DC around forecast time and they had been tracking the snow moving northeast up the eastern seaboard. I happened to find out about this by reading the newspaper in question to satisfy my curiosity about the storm's forecast and impacts; it appeared from the Saturday paper's forecast that the usual practice was to issue a 24-hour forecast with a second day guess and that second day guess was something like rain turning to snow, no indication of severity. Partly because of this outcome, the Weather Bureau set up an office in New York City by 1895 and I guess the telephone was becoming more widely used every year too, so there were different ways of communicating the forecast to the newspaper. I think it's fair to say most Americans got a weather forecast from the daily newspaper only until maybe 1920 after which the radio began to compete as a source. This particular newspaper was published twice daily seven days a week in the morning and again before the supper hour. It would be in that second edition that New Yorkers would find their weather forecast. I checked some other forecasts later in 1888 and they were surprisingly good actually. Maybe the GFS worked better then.

Coastal low now stacked to 700 mbs and 500 mb center is accelerating through VA. Net motion likely to be NNW for a while then NNE until capture, after which ENE. Recent measurement 30 miles off Long Island shows ocean temp is only 34F there.