Roger Smith

Preliminary scoring for November 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __TOTAL hudsonvalley21 __________ 62 _ 38 _34 _ 134 _ 82 _76 _44 _202_ 336_ 44 _70 _64 _ 178 ___ 514 BKViking _________________ 64 _ 48 _40 _ 152 _100_68 _56 _224_ 376_ 42 _78 _80 _ 200 ___ 576 so_whats_happening _____68 _ 42 _22 _ 132 _ 92 _62 _62 _216 _ 348_ 48 _88 _86 _ 222 ___ 570 Tom ______________________ 68 _ 54 _46 _ 168 _ 98 _68 _54 _220_ 388_ 38 _82 _76 _ 196 ___ 584 wxallannj _________________ 70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 64 _90 _78 _232_ 392_ 62 _92 _90 _ 244 ___ 636 RJay ______________________70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 96 _90 _70 _256 _ 416_ 76 _90 _96 _ 262 ___ 678 Scotty Lightning __________70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 90 _70 _50 _210 _ 370 _ 10 _60 _70 _ 140 ___ 510 ___ consensus ____________ 70 _ 54 _46 _ 170 _ 90 _68 _56 _214 _ 384 _ 42 _88 _86 _ 216 ___ 600 yoda ______________________70 _ 54 _48 _ 172 _ 88 _66 _58 _212 _ 384 _ 44 _88 _86 _ 218 ___ 602 DonSutherland1 __________ 74 _ 54 _46 _ 174 _ 82 _80 _64 _226 _ 400 _60 _90 _88 _ 238 ___ 638 ___ Normal ________________90 _ 70 _60 _ 220 _ 80 _60 _20 _160 _ 380 _ 00 _40 _70 _ 110 ___ 490 RodneyS __________________98 _ 68 _66 _ 232 _ 90 _30 _58 _178 _ 410 _ 66 _ 60_100_ 226 ___ 636 Roger Smith ______________ 82 _ 98 _94 _ 274 _ 34 _00 _38 _072 _ 346 _ 30 _90 _86_ 206 ___ 552 Ephesians2 _______________ 80 _ 90 _90 _ 260 _ 30 _30 _50 _ 110 _ 370 _ 40 _80 _70 _ 190 ___ 560 wxdude64 ________________ 66 _ 70 _ 86 _ 222 _ 14 _ 10 _12 _ 036 _ 258 _ 10 _56 _88 _ 154 ___ 412 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___100 _ 58 _ 28 _ 186 _ 38 _66 _96 _ 200 _ 386 _ 48 _58 _60 _ 166 ___ 552 --------------- EXTREME FORECAST REPORT NYC, BOS _ On current projections, wins for Roger Smith (second lowest forecasts) and losses for wxdude64 (lowest forecasts), would change to wins if actual values are below -2.2). ATL, IAH _ On current projections, wins for wxallannj (for ATL tied with RJay) for highest forecasts. DEN _ On current projection, win for RJay (highest forecast) PHX _ too close to call at this point, may be a win-loss situation or a straight win. DCA, ORD, and SEA currently not extreme forecasts. (forecasts) FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 ---------------

Anomalies to 23rd and projections to end of November ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ (anom 1___________+0.4 _ -1.1 _ -1.6 __ +2.3 _+4.7 _ +5.6 __+8.3 _+4.2 _ +2.8 ___ ( p anom 1-30) ___-0.5 _ -1.5 _-2.0 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +5.0 _+3.0 _ +1.5 Very cold air is going to spread into DEN after 28th knocking down that large positive considerably; otherwise just a bit colder in most locations than it has been on average ... will post the preliminary scoring and adjust it on the 1st of December when these values are better defined. (Note DCA anom includes two missing days, not looking like it would be much different if those days were included). DEN has also been very dry, precip to date is only 0.08" for November. Some snow is expected with the cold wave. I notice NYC is also running quite dry at just over one inch of rain to date.

No snow cover below 4500' around here, just a cold drizzly rain, low overcast becoming fog above my elevation (which is 3500'). A thin snow cover in the alpine possibly 3-5" tops.

I was reading that the wind was about to reverse over the North Pole -- but if you think about it, the wind at the North Pole has to be either calm or southerly.

The anomalies to mid-month are roughly near normal in the east to +5 F in parts of the west. A somewhat colder interval lies ahead for most regions, with variations the final anomalies look likely to be near normal east to +3 west. I will track this more precisely in about a week and post some preliminary scoring.

I don't foresee anything very different from the above, would just add that there may be potential for some heavy lake effect snowfall events and large temperature variations in the Midwest that could include a few episodes of near-record cold there. This makes me wonder if the snowfall anomaly will be highly positive in the upper Midwest trailing southwest and with a secondary maximum over the central Rockies. I think the east coast will be lucky to see one major coastal storm but could have a half dozen moderate snowfall events from redeveloping lows.

Boston, MA _____ 47" NewYork, NY(Central Park) ____ 24" Philadelphia, PA ___ 23" Baltimore, MD ____ 17" Washington, DC __ 13" Albany ___ 62" Hartford, CT __ 50" Providence, RI ___ 38" Worcester, MA ___ 77" Hyannis, MA ____ 28" Burlington, VT __ 87" Portland, ME ____ 70" Concord, NH ____ 67" Above normal snowfall will be mostly confined to some snow belts of Great Lakes, and parts of the upper Midwest, parts of Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. Storm track will often be across the Ohio valley into northern New England, and infrequently near the east coast, but it won't be as mild a winter as some of the past few. Snow will be generally around 80% of long-term normals for most of the northeast and mid-Atlantic regions.

Would you say all of that 4" fell on Sunday, or if not, what portion fell on Monday? The only heavier snowfall for Nov 9th was 5.6" in 1921. That date also set a low maximum record for the date (30F). The snowfall record for Nov 10 for Toronto (downtown location) was 5.5" in 1898 and 7.0" fell Nov 9-10 1898 at that location.

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.

Nov 9-13 may be the only five day interval where some or most people reading this were alive when NYC set its daily record low. After the 9th (1976) two were set in 2017 and two in 2019 (probably on same nights rather than two consecutive nights in each case). Two out of three of the winters following these unusual record lows were of course good ones, 2019-20 closer to average by recent standards. Add to this the 2012 snowfall event and this is one of the few times of year to outperform the classic climate of the past in terms of producing cold weather and snow. Not that this necessarily would affect the 30-year average, I suppose there have also been intervals that were well above normal to compensate. The ones that come to mind are a bit earlier such as 1975, 2022 and 2024.

BWI 16.7" DCA 14.5" IAD 16.9" RIC 12.0" SBY 9.8" numerous small events and one moderate event in a fast flow highly variable pattern

__ Table of forecasts for November 2025 __ FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____+1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 --------------- Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN and PHX.

Re the approaching Newfoundland windstorm, you don't often see changes this rapid and dynamic at a weather buoy site such as this one to the south of western Newfoundland ... winds went from east 40 knots to south 50-70 knots to west 50-65 knots in about three hours and the temperature spiked at 20 C (68 F). I see reports already of southeast winds gusting to 100 km/hr in southeast Newfoundland but I wonder if the public forecast is strongly worded enough for the gusts that are going to hit there in about 2-3 hours from now? http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44139

Quite the windstorm developing overnight to hit southeast Newfoundland (Avalon Pen) on Tuesday, winds could be near 150 km/hr in gusts. Low deepens to 945 mb as it approaches the Terra Nova area. I wonder if this is a sign of explosive development potential for lows later on in the approaching winter season in the general area? Then the next one along on Wednesday night develops rapidly off Nova Scotia and could bring 2-4" snowfalls to Atlantic Canada and eastern Maine towards conclusion of storm precip Thursday morning, but it looks like just a few wind blown flurries for New England otherwise, maybe scattered 0.5 to 1.0 inch snow over higher terrain .... are Lake Champlain snow squalls possible? ... there are some unusually cold air masses for this early showing up.

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point. General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.