Roger Smith

A look at anomalies and projections, plus an update on seasonal snowfall ... ____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA __(anom 1-16) _____+2.0 _+3.1 _+2.8 ___ +6.7 _+6.8 _+8.3 __+10.2 _+4.8 _+2.7 __(p anom 1-31) ___-2.0 _-1.5 _-2.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _+3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 (17th) _ Extreme cold will dominate eastern and central regions in second half of January and will even cut into the large positive anomaly at DEN for a few days but will not reach PHX and will have less impact on the southeast. I could imagine even lower outcomes than shown in the east as these projections require an anomaly of about -6F now to 31st. Some days will average -15 to -20 anomalies. Snowfall reports below will be updated in this post whenever necessary. The end of Jan temp anomalies will be updated around the 24th and preliminary scoring will be posted after that update. ____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV snowfall to 1-17______1.6" __8.7" __5.4" __22.5"_ 24.7"_ 43.0"__ 7.9"_ 0.0" _ 36.3"

Well that's interesting because Feb 1934 was super cold in eastern N. America. (so was Dec 1933, Jan 1934 was closer to average)

Maybe Charlie Brown WILL kick a field goal after all. And if so, nobody else will !!!

I think the GFS is improving, they are now cancelling snowstorms shown on day 12 by day 10.

I think there will be a much better period of winter synoptics late this month into first half of February especially seeing that extremely cold air masses keep coming south and that period is peak climo for snowstorms.

Generally clear skies over the PNW and s BC, but widespread fog in valleys, sunshine on hills and alpine areas. Where I live, my north view is clear blue skies and my south view is a bright white cloud a little below my elevation and drifting towards me at times, but it has stayed sunny with highs around 7 C 45 F. A few valleys getting out of the fog are 10-15 C and valleys in fog are just slightly above freezing. Most of eastern WA and the southern ID region are under this inversion fog. Visibilities are quite low. Very mild on the Oregon coast, highs near 17 C 63 F there today.

The current GFS 12z has the look of a 5-8" snowfall in NYC region and 10-15" in eastern New England, are the Pats playing on Sunday? Very cold Friday, somewhat milder Saturday, but whatever snow would fall seems likely to stick almost from onset as temperatures plunge into deep freeze Sunday night. In fact the rest of January looks like it would average about 7-10 F below normal and that would drop the anomaly from present levels near +3 to an end result near -3 to -4. Getting a snow pack established Sunday would help to drop those anomalies too.

Well, probably two-thirds or more of the big snow and cold events of past winters have been beyond the reliable model range (from 20 Jan onward) so it's crazy to write off any winter this early. I believe there will be some very active weather patterns around the end of January as energy levels begin to ramp up then. Whatever sort of pattern exists in late January will undergo amplification then, best bet being a large trough just west of this region so it could be quite volatile then.

My five red flags would be: 1. Snow is predicted to fall where you are. 2. Snow has not yet fallen anywhere. 3. Snow is even heavier on Kuchera map. 4. Snow may mix with rain. 5. Day of week ends in y.

__ Table of forecasts for January 2026 __ ____ FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino16 __________________________ +3.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___ -0.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 ___ -0.4 _-0.9 _+1.5 Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +0.5 ___+0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 wxallannj ________________________ +0.5 _-0.4 _-0.7 ___ -0.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 ___ +2.0 _+1.6 _+0.7 RJay ______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __+3.0 _+4.0 ___+1.0 _+2.5 __0.0 ____ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 __________________ -0.4 _-1.2 _-1.4 ___ -1.5 _ +0.7 _ +1.9 ___ -0.3 _ +2.1 _ +0.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____________ -0.5 _-1.2 _ -1.7 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.7 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.7 DonSutherland1 _________________ -0.5 _ -1.9 _ -2.0 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+3.8 ___ +2.0 _ +2.7 _ +2.0 ___ consensus ___________________-0.6 _ -1.2 _ -1.4 __ -0.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +1.1 __ +1.6 _ +0.9 RodneyS _________________________ -0.7 _-0.6 _-0.5 ___ +0.3 _+2.7 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.8 so_whats_happening _____________-1.1 __-1.0 _ -1.7 ___ -0.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 ___ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +1.0 BKViking _________________________-1.5 _ -1.4 _ -1.2 ___ -1.6 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.6 _+1.0 Tom _____________________________ -1.9 _ -2.5 _-2.4 ___ -2.6 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 ____+0.7 _+1.2 _ +0.4 dmillz25 __________________________ -2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.7 _+2.5 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 wxdude64 ________________________-2.1 _ -2.2 _-2.3 ___ -1.8 _-0.6 _+0.6 ____ +1.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.3 Roger Smith ______________________-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _+2.0 ___ +4.5 _+3.5 _+1.0 ============================== Persistence (Dec 2025) __________-4.4 _-5.3 _-4.4 ____-3.5 _+1.7 _+4.0 ___ +11.1 _ +7.4 _ +3.2 ================= Highest and lowest forecasts (excluding persistence) are color coded; Normal is lowest for IAH and tied lowest for SEA.

<<< == JANUARY DAILY RECORDS for NYC == >>> ... temps in brackets after low min are that day's max when not also a record low max ... ** 2d snowfall was all on previous day ... note that Jan 1 record snowfall was on first day of data records Jan 1 1869 so no indication of 2d total there ... otherwise * all of record 2d snowfall was on that date and none on previous date DATE ___ TEMPERATURES ___________________________________________ PRECIP ________________________________ notes _________ High max ___ high min _____ Low max ___ Low min ________ Max prec ___ Max snow ___ Max 2d snow _ Jan 01 __ 62 1966 ____ 52 1966 _______ 10 1918 ______ -4 1918 ________ 2.05 1888R ___ 9.0 1869 ____ 9.0 1869* (no data prev day) Jan 02 __ 68 1876 __ 49 1890,1911,2023 __10 1918 ___ 2 1918 _________ 1.92 1925RS__11.5 1925 ___13.0 1877 (4.8"+8.2") Jan 03 __ 64 2000 ____ 51 2000 ________ 7 1879 ____ -4 1879 _________ 2.42 1999R ___ 7.0 1923 ____ 8.2 1877** _ 1923 added 2.0 4th Jan 04 __ 66 1950,2023 __ 59 1950 ___ 14 1904,81__-3 1918 _________ 2.73 1982R___ 9.8 2018 ____ 9.8 2018* Jan 05 __ 64 1950,93 _ 53 2007 _______ 13 1884 ____ -4 1904 (14)_____ 1.50 1909R___ 6.5 1881 ____ 9.8 2018** _ 1881 no added snow 4,6 Jan 06 __ 72 2007 ____ 54 2007 _______ 12 1896 ____ -2 1896 _________ 1.57 1962R___ 5.0 1989^____ 6.5 1881** _ 1989 no added snow 5,7 Jan 07 __ 64 2007 ____ 54 1946 _______ 17 1878 _____ 4 2014 (19) ____ 3.12 1874R___13.6 1996 ____13.6 1996* Jan 08 __ 65 1998 ____ 53 2008 _______ 13 1968 _____ 2 1968 _________ 1.25 2007R___ 6.6 1996 ____ 20.2 1996 Jan 09 __ 64 1937,2008_ 50 1937 _______ 14 1968,70__ -1 1968 _________1.73 2024R___ 5.0 1886 _____ 6.9 1996 Jan 10 __ 60 1876 ____ 47 1935 _______ 13 1875 _____-3 1875 _________ 1.80 2016R___ 6.3 1965 ____ 6.3 1965* Jan 11 __ 69 2020 ____ 51 2020 _______ 12 1873 ______3 1968 _________ 1.46 1900R___ 5.7 1991 ____ 7.4 1954 (2.4+5.4) 1991 no added snow Jan 12 __ 68 2020^____47 2017 ________ 8 1886 _____ 2 1886,1968,81 _ 2.35^1915R___6.1 2011 _____ 9.1 2011 Jan 13 __ 68 1932 ____ 56 1932 ________ 8^1912_____-3 1912, 14 ______ 2.35^1915R__11.5 1964 ____ 12.5 1964 Jan 14 __ 70 1932^____55 1932 ___ 17 1893,1988,2004 _-5 1914 ________ 2.06 1940R___ 9.5 1910 ____ 11.5 1964** Jan 15 __ 67 1932 ____ 54 1995 _______ 12 1957 _____ 0 1957 _________ 1.26^1890R___6.0 1892 ____ 10.0 1910 Jan 16 __ 58 1995 ____ 53 1995 _______ 14 1920 _____ 1 1893_2004 ___ 1.44 1924R__ 13,0 1879 ____13.0 1879* Jan 17 __ 63 1990 ____ 46 1990 _______ 12 1977 _____-2 1977 _________ 1.36 1994RS___6.0 1907 ____13.0 1879** Jan 18 __ 66 1973,90 _ 47 1915 _______ 13 1977 _____ 0 1982 (15) _____ 2.10 2015R___ 5.0 1875 _____ 6.0 1907** Jan 19 __ 64 1951 ____ 45 1986 _______ 10 1994 _____-2 1994 __________2.39 1936RS__ 9.0 1936 ___ 9.2 1936 Jan 20 __ 64 1951,2006 _46 1900 _______ 15 1994 _____ 0 1994 _________1.41 1995R __11,1 1978 ______ 13.6 1978 Jan 21 __ 63 2006 ____ 49 1906 ________ 9 1985 _____ -2 1985 _________3.45 1979R___11.0 2014 ____11.1 1978** Jan 22 __ 61 1916,59 __ 47 1906 ________14 1888^_____ 0 1888^_________ 1.26 1891R____ 8.5 2005 ____11.5 2014 Jan 23 __ 63 1874^____50 1906 _______ 11 1871 _____ -3 1936 __________2.55 1998R___27.3 2016^____ 27.5 2016 (13.8 2005) Jan 24 __ 68 1967 ____ 54 1967 ________ 6 1882 _____ -6 1882 _______ 2.18 1979RS __ 7.4 1875,1908_ 27.3 2016** Jan 25 __ 60 1967 ____ 49 2010 ________ 12 1897 ______2 1945 (15) ___ 1.80 1978R ___10.0 1905 ___ 11.0 1905 Jan 26 __ 72 1950^___ 49 1916 ________ 14 1871 ______2 1871 __________ 2.19 1986R ___12.3 2011 ___13.3 2011 Jan 27 __ 69 1916 ____ 53 1916 ________ 14 1888 _____ -1 1927 _________ 1.94 1976R ___ 9.0 1871 ___ 19.0 2011 Jan 28 __ 66 1916 ____ 46 2002,18 _____10 1888 _____ -2 1925 (14) ____ 1.87 1994R ___ 7.5 1897^ ___12.0 1871 (10.3 2004 6.0+4.3) Jan 29 __ 69 2002 ____ 50 2002 ______ 13 1977 ______0 1873 _________ 1.03 1990R ___ 7.3 2022 ___ 8.5 2022 repl 7.5 1897** (6.5 1922) Jan 30 __ 64 2006 ____ 44 1989 ______ 16 1934 _____ -1 1873 (20) ____ 1.19 1939R ___ 5.8 1966 ___ 7.3 2022** repl 6,8 1966 Jan 31 __ 63 1916,47 __ 43 1913 ________ 16 1935,2019 _ -1 1920 _______ 1.51 1914R ___ 8.0 1882 ___ 8.0 1882* - - - - - - - - - - - notable near record values (^) 6th _ 6.0" total snow 5-6 Jan 1893, may be reported as one-day record on 6th in some data sets. Not the 2d max (1881 5th 6.5) 9th _ 2024 rainfall record broke 1.42" R 1936. Total rainfall 1.95" incl 0.22" first few hours of 10th (2024). 57F peak temp. 12th _ 1915 rainfall followed by 1.06" precip on 13th, of which 0.7" snow (so mostly more rain). 12th _ 66 max in 2017 .... 14th _ 66 max in 2005. 13th _ 9F max 1914 22nd _ Probably around -2 F max and -15 F min in 1857 (before NYC records began) ... severe cold lasted 2-3 days 23rd _ 62 max 1906 ... 2.31" prec from the record 27.3" snowfall. 1998 had 2.55" rain. 28th _ 7.1" snow 1943, 8.4" 27-28

___ The history of the contest (with personal best scores) __ updated to Sep 2025 ___ Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month. In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ... month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492 MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64 APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13 MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem* ___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64 AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays) OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW) NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392 __ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet. In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532 MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1 APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters) MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 ) JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794 JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592) AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716 OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd) NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ __ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2). 2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ... month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542 FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503 APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756 MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495 JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64 JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1 AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed) SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd. OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644 NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd) DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most) The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd).462 Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters. * Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst. _______________________ 2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64 FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446 MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637 APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1 JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658 JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756) AUG ______ 646 __ RJay SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560 NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty) DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active. 2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version. month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1 FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second. APR _______ 628 __ RJay MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest) JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj JUL ________778 __ RJay AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1 SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627 NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017 DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1 The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring). Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0. By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework. SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables. 2018 As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic. APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1 JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1 OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393) ____________________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1) 2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21 FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550 MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64 JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586 NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019) DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8) ... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table. 2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY) APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner) MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty) JUL _______ 664 _ RJay AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point. OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660 NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ ___ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0 ________________________________________ RJay had the best differential. 2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years. The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used. JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread). OCT _______656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty) NOV _______685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1 DEC _______518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927) __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0. 2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year. month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64 FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1 MAR ______ 756 _ Tom APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY) MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty) JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back iso DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far) ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509). __ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are 18-7, 14-2, 10-1.) 2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV. Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host). month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1 FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657 MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1 APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720 JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1 SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen) NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648 _____ Don S wins four seasons contest, wxallannj second DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _________________________ RJay (18-1) wins extreme forecast contest _____________ Don S wins annual contest (7399), wxallannj second (7170) =========================================== 2024 _ JAN _______ 674 _ Rodney S FEB _______ 613 _ rainsucks __ wxallannj (554) MAR ______ 762 _ RJay (758 DonS) APR _______ 794 _ Roger S (774 wxall5annj _ p.b.) __________ RodneyS wins snowfall contest (DonS 2nd) MAY _______ 738 _ wxallannj JUN ________ 737 _ Rhino16__ Scotty L (596) JUL ________ 704 _ Roger S AUG ________692 _ Roger S ___ seasonal max winner Tom SEP ________ 664 _ RJay ___ persistence (706) only win against field so far (not tracked before 2023) OCT ________665 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ RodneyS (540) NOV ________688 _ Roger S _____ four seasons winner wxallannj DEC ________675 _ Stormchaser Chuck ____ BKViking (659) ____ wxallannj annual winner, DonS 2nd ___________________ Scotty Lightning wins extreme forecasts 9-0 (RS 9-3, rainsucks 9-3) 2025 ___ Persistence joined the contest for 2024 and 2025, the scores for persistence tend to be in a similar range to Normal and behind the regular forecasters who enter all months. An otherwise un-noted highlight of the year was that yoda entered all autumn, contests and finished second in total points for the season. JAN ____ wxdude64 599 FEB _____ Roger Smith 674 MAR ____ Tom 703 APR _____ Stormchaser Chuck 710 snowfall __ hudsonvalley21 MAY ____ RodneyS 714 JUN ____ Tom 788 JUL ____ Roger Smith 800 AUG ____ RodneyS 650 seasonal max __ RJay SEP _____ Roger Smith, Scotty Lightning 738 OCT ____ RodneyS 690 NOV ___ RJay 701 four seasons _ tied win for RJay, so_whats_happening DEC ___ wxallannj 481 Tom won the annual contest with total score 7441; so_whats_happening was 2nd (as well as Consensus which almost scooped the annual title, held off in the final month by Tom) in the extreme forecasts Roger Smith 16-2 edged out RodneyS 11-3 when tied results reduced scores to 11.5-2.0 vs 11.0-3.0. _______________________________________________________________ Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2025 By Dec 2025, 144 contests and 12 years of contests are now complete. This table will be updated during 2026 contest year. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current (to 2023) eleven (now twelve) regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck until 2024, Rhino16 or rainsucks, yoda in 2025 etc), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ eleven years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win. Best monthly score over twelve years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name. Wins in 2013 not counted in table, as formats were different. RodneyS won contest in 2013. ..................... .................... .......................... ........................... ^ note: RJay 1.0 wins in Four Seasons = two tied wins FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _+field__ total ___ Wins (Yr)_+field_total _ Snow _ Summer _ Extreme _ Four Seasons DonSutherland1 (802) __ 22 _____ 8.5 ___30.5 ______ 3 _____ 1 ____ 4 _____ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 2.5, 1, 3.5 __ RodneyS (794) __________22 ______ 5 ____ 27 _______ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 _____3,1,4 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 4 ____ Roger Smith (808) ______21.5 ____ 2.5 ___ 24.0 _____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 7 ________ 0 ____ RJay (778) ______________ 15 ______ 3 _____18________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 _______ 2 _____2, 0.5, 2.5 __1.0, 0, 1.0^ __ wxallannj (770) __________9.5 ______4 ____ 13.5 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 2 ____ wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5____ 7.0 ______ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_____ 5 _______ 0 _____--_____ 0 ______ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 3.5 ___8.0 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 _______0,1,1 _____ 0 ________ 0 ____ Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____4.5 ______ 1 ____ 5.5______ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 _____ 1 _______ 1 ________ 1 ________ 0 ____ Tom (778) _________________4 ______ 1 _____ 5 _______ 1______ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1, 1, 2 ____ 2 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ StormchaserChuck (724) _4 ______ --_____ 4 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Maxim (698) ______________3 ______--_____ 3 _______ 0 _____--______ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0.5 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____ rainsucks (725) ___________3 ______ --_____ 3 _______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ____2.5*_____ 0______ 0 _____0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________0.5, 0, 0.5 Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ____ 2 ________ 0 _____ --_____0 _____ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____ Stebo (712)_______________ 2 ______ --_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Rhino16 (737) _____________2 _______--_____ 2 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5____ 2.5 ______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 _____ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____ Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 1 _____ -- _____ 1 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____ OHweather (754) __________ 1 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Snoski14 ___________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Mercurial __________________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ --_____ 0 _____ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Orangeburg Wx (682) ______1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0______ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ Yoda (690) _________________1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ____ 0.5 _______ 0 _____ -- _____0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ mikehobbyst _______________ 1 ______ --_____ 1 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ CCM _______________________ 0 ______ --_____ 0 ________ 0 _____ --_____0 _____ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____ * so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower. (following not counted against wins above) Consensus (756) ___________ 2 Normal (720) _______________ 4 Persistence (706) __________ 1 Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778. April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014). Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score. Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is. UPDATED to DEC 2025 and FOUR SEASONS, ANNUAL and EXTREME FORECASTS 2025

I will update that history of the contest post which is currently in Dec 2024 contest thread, and post it here soon...

Scoring is now complete for the month and the year. Congrats to Tom for winning the annual contest, despite being closely tracked by several in the chase pack, so_whats_happening was second and RJay third, Don Sutherland fourth, then hudsonvalley21 and wxallannj close at 5th and 6th. The extreme forecast result was quite close also, my total is a bit higher than Rodney S but I also had more losses, so it's pretty close to a tied result there. Looking at best scores one can see in general that the lower portion of the regular entrants tend to go a little more to extremes and so while there are more best scores and extreme forecast results for them, there must also be quite a few busted forecasts with a net result of lower total scores. This past month, if anyone had foreseen the very large positive anomalies at DEN and PHX, and prevented max-60 scoring, they could have moved up by around 150 points but even that alone would not have quite defeated Tom's campaign, assuming it was one of the top four who did that; had I done it, I would have moved up one rank. Oddly enough the extreme western cold that I was predicting materialized over most of western Canada, Edmonton had an anomaly of about -10 F for December. But that cold remained largely in place with some occasional forays towards the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. ... the data for central U.S. locations reveals a generally very cold month with one week of extreme warmth 22nd to 28th. ORD averaged -3.5, but was +14.3 for that week. Don S pointed out in another thread that STL had their largest one-day temperature drop (or daily range) ever in December (on the 27th).

Glad to see all of you wanting to continue, will perhaps send invites to some part-time participants of recent times too. You can edit any of those forecasts up until afternoon of Jan 2nd when I start working on a table of forecasts. A lot of the scoring work for last year's contest has been done, just adjusting a few numbers as final data reports come in. ORD was -3.5 with a +14.3 week 22nd to 28th. Now that's bizarre.