Roger Smith

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About Roger Smith

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    CONTEST ORGANIZER
  • Birthday 06/03/1949

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    KGEG
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    Rossland BC Canada
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    global climate research, golf

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  1. First report on the anomalies and tracking future trends from the GFS ... _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _11th _____ (anom 10d) _____ --1.7 _ --2.8 _ --0.2 __ --2.5 _--0.9 _+2.4 __ --0.3 _+4.4 _--0.6 _11th _____ (p anom 20d) ___ --2.0 _ --2.5 _ --1.5 __ --2.0 _ --1.5 __0.0 __ +0.5 _+4.0 _+1.0 _11th _____ (p anom 30d) ___ --1.5 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 __ --1.5 _ --1.0 _--0.5 __ +1.0 _+3.0 _+1.5 _______________________________ 11th _ The month has started out rather cold across the northern half of the U.S. (lower 48) and warmer than average closer to the southern border and the Gulf of Mexico. The projections above are based on the following: (days 1-10) continued rather cold in the east but this regime spreading further south to include ATL and IAH in below normal northeast wind patterns, west warming esp valid SEA and DEN, then days 11 to 16 and beyond for a month end projection just took normal values in east expecting a warming trend beyond the model run, and a +2.0 anomaly for western locations days 11-20. Checked for snow at contest sites, just a trace at DEN on 10th. Probably not quite time to call the contest yet (latest updates are in the April contest thread).
  2. It's no longer Greek to me, the simplified format makes scoring easy, especially if everyone scores zero. Hopefully we won't have a repeat of the astronomical distorted season last year, last time I checked, 59/8/-2. So this year once again just predict the count at the end of the year, Majors, all canes, all named storms (e.g. 18/10/5). We'll say June 10 for a deadline, may extend it if the season is slow to get going and/or entries have fallen short of a good number. Edit your entries without notice before June 10, won't be making any notes although I will read them.
  3. Table of forecasts for May, 2021 FORECASTER _____ _____ _____ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ bias (rel to con) RJay _________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 ___ +0.89 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +1.1 _ +2.6 __ +2.7 _ +2.0 _ +0.6 ___ +0.68 Tom _________________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 __ +0.2 _ +1.2 _ +0.2 __ --0.5 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ --0.41 so_whats_happening _ (-3%) __ +1.8 _ +1.1 _ +0.7 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.4 ___ +0.20 wxdude64 ____________________ +1.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.6 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 __ +0.9 _ +1.6 _ --0.4 ___ --0.22 Scotty Lightning _______________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.06 ___ Consensus ________________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +0.4 Roger Smith __________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.8 ___ +0.19 BKViking _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.7 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26 wxallannj _____________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __ --0.5 _ +1.6 _ --0.5 __ --0.6 _ +2.2 _ +0.4 ___ --0.59 RodneyS ______________________ +1.4 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __--0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.7 __ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ --0.84 DonSutherland1 _______________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +1.3 _ +1.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ --0.1 ___ --0.36 ___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.28 _________________________________________________________________ Color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, PHX. Bias is the average departure of your forecast from consensus. The bias of normal tells us that our average forecast is +1.28.
  4. <<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Apr) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 284 _288 _242 __814 __253 _292 _244 __789 __1603 __172 _278 _250 __700 ____ 2303 wxdude64 ____________________307 _313 _303 __923 __151 _212 _197 __560 __1483 __221 _295 _261 __ 777 ____ 2260 BKViking _____________________ 274 _310 _280 __864 __150 _274 _220 __644 __1508 __198 _276 _264 __738 ____ 2246 ___ Consensus _______________ 304 _312 _276 __892 __146 _250 _218 __614 __ 1506 __172 _286 _256 __714 ____ 2220 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 294 _288 _286 __868 __159_278 _228 __665 __1533 __144 _268 _274 __686 ____ 2219 Tom __________________________ 306 _333 _315 __954 __118 _221 _214 __553 __1507 __168 _293 _206 __667 ____ 2174 wxallannj ______________________244 _284 _232 __760 __122 _210 _240 __572 __1332 __188 _274 _296 __758 ____ 2090 so_whats_happening __________ 305 _268 _207 __780 __179 _315 _147 __641 __1421 __129 _299 _224 __652 ____ 2073 RodneyS ______________________ 232 _264 _240 __736 __159 _242 _192 __591 __1329 __176 _292 _270 __738 ____ 2067 Scotty Lightning _______________ 258 _276 _224 __758 __ 58 _274 _244 __576 __ 1334 __184 _280 _262 __ 726 ____ 2060 RJay __________________________ 274 _278 _254 __806 __188 _224 _180 __592 __ 1398 __140 _220 _202 __562 ____ 1960 ___ Normal ____________________ 208 _236 _214 __658 __ 50 _ 198 _212 __460 __ 1118 __234 _270 _250 __754 ____ 1872 Roger Smith ___________________ 198 _154 _ 84 __436 __151 _186 _236 __573 __ 1009 __134 _ 238 _234 __606 ____ 1615 ____________________________________________________________________________ Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 2 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 22 locations out of 36 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March and 6 in April. Of those, 14 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 8 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There has been one shared win accounting for the 23 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr ____ TOTAL to date DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 ____ 5-1 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 5-1 RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 ____ 4-0 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 3-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 3-0 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 3-0 ____ 3-0 Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- ____ 2-0 __________________________________________
  5. +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 ___ +1.9 _ +2.3 _ +0.8
  6. Final scoring for April 2021 _______(anomalies) _______ +1.4_+1.6_+2.7 ______ +3.0_+0.9_--0.9 __________ --1.2_+4.0_+2.7 FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent_ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL BKViking __________________ 92 _ 98 _ 70 __ 260 __ 88 _ 96 _ 54 __ 238 _ 498 __ 72 _ 42 _ 26 __ 140 ____ 638 wxdude64 _________________92 _100 _ 84 __ 276 __ 84 _ 84 _ 42 __ 210 _ 486 __ 60 _ 46 _ 32 __ 138 ____ 624 hudsonvalley21 ____________96 _ 94 _ 76 __ 266 __ 78 _ 96 _ 58 __ 232 _ 498 __ 36 _ 54 _ 36 __ 126 ____ 624 DonSutherland1 __________ 100 _ 98 _ 78 __ 276 __ 88 _ 86 _ 76 __ 250 _ 526 __ 22 _ 40 _ 28 __ 090 ____ 616 ___ Consensus _____________96 _ 94 _ 70 __ 260 __ 74 _ 98 _ 58 __ 230 _ 490 __ 36 _ 50 _ 28 __ 114 ____ 604 Tom ______________________ 98 _100 _ 78 __ 276 __ 74 _ 98 _ 62 __ 234 _ 510 __ 52 _ 38 _ 36 __ 126 _ 636 Tom _________ (-5%) ________93 _ 95 _ 74 __ 262 __ 70 _ 93 _ 59 __ 222 _ 484 __ 49 _ 36 _ 34 __ 119 ____ 603 Scotty Lightning ___________ 92 _ 88 _ 56 __ 236 __ 40 _ 98 _ 62 __ 200 _ 436 __ 36 _ 60 _ 66 __ 162 ____ 598 so_whats_happening ______ 88 _ 78 _ 46 __ 212 __ 76 _ 86 _ 40 __ 202 _ 414 __ 32 _ 76 _ 62 __ 170 ____ 584 wxallannj __________________64 _ 66 _ 38 __ 168 __ 30 _ 62 _100__ 192 _ 360 __ 86 _ 50 _ 86 __ 222 ____ 582 RJay ______________________ 78 _ 82 _ 96 __256 __ 90 _ 78 _ 22 __ 190 _ 446 __ 26 _ 50 _ 46 __ 122 ____ 568 ___ Normal ________________ 72 _ 68 _ 46 __ 186 __ 40 _ 82 _ 82 __ 204 _ 390 __ 76 _ 20 _ 46 __ 142 ____ 532 RodneyS __________________ 62 _ 64 _ 46 __ 172 __ 72 _ 88 _ 70 __ 232 _ 404 __ 02 _ 42 _ 14 __ 058 ____ 462 Roger Smith _______________76 _ 40 _ 00 __ 116 __ 40 _ 88 _ 22 __ 150 _ 266 __ 00 _ 80 _ 36 __ 116 ____ 382 __________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report __ DCA +1.4 _ not an extreme forecast outcome. NYC +1.6 _ does not qualify (wxdude +1.6, fourth highest forecast) BOS +2.7 _ win for RJay (+2.5). ORD +3.0 _ win for RJay (+2.5), loss for Don Sutherland1 (+3.6). ATL +0.9 _ does not qualify. IAH --0.9 _ win for wxallannj (--0.9). DEN --1.2 _ win for wxallannj (--0.5). PHX +4.0 _ win for Roger Smith (+3.0). SEA +2.7 _ win for wxallannj (+2.0).
  7. Predict the temperature anomalies for these nine locations: DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA As far as I know the anomalies in use will continue to be 1981-2010. If this changes before the deadline I will get in touch with entrants. If it changes during the month with 1991-2020 to be used at end of month, I will try to find the differentials to apply and unless otherwise notified your forecasts will be assumed to be with reference to 1981-2010 normals. We will do the seasonal max forecasts this summer but I'll add that to June this year.
  8. Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021 -- Table of entries and scoring _ updated for April snowfalls (at DTW, BUF, DEN, BTV). The red highlighted numbers are best forecasts at this stage, and those underlined are settled as such because all forecasts have already been passed or for ORD the max forecast is closer than the others although not yet passed. BOS is tied for best forecasts on either side (37.0, actual 38.5, 40.0). (Apr 23 update _ DEN added 12.6" BUF, DTW and BTV 3-5" amounts since last report, as shown. ) Note _ for current total departure, the first number is your total error at this point. The second value in brackets is the total of "non-reducible errors" for those stations that have passed your forecast. Your total departure can improve if more snow falls at stations where your forecast is higher than current values. It can only be increased by snow falling where your forecasts are now passed. All of us have been passed at NYC, DEN and SEA. All but one have been passed at ORD. Nobody has been passed yet at BTV (contest leader RJay would be first and has 1.9" to spare). Two forecasters have some left to use up at DTW, and BUF has only passed contest leader RJay and current third place wxallannj. FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep snowfall to Apr 22___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 __48.8 _ 44.9 _ 77.0 __ 80.2 _ 12.9 _ 63.1 RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 66.4 (61.9) __ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______ 84.2 (48.4) wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 _____ 86.4 (29.5) wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 92.4 (60.8) hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 _____ 93.7 (42.5) Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____101.4 (81.0) Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 _____101.8 (44.4) RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____111.6 (106.2) Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 115.8 (53.8) Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 120.8 (33.6) snowfall to Apr 22 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 44.9 _ 77.0 __ 80.2 _ 12.9 _ 63.1 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Not much more snow is expected anywhere now, and since everyone has been passed by DEN, further snowfall there will have no impact on the results. The same is true of ORD since only Scotty Lightning can gain any ground and that would be a net of 3.0" before he also joins the rest of the field. The main potential for change would be snow at DTW which would assist third place wxallannj and hudsonvalley21, but they only have 2.1" and 3.3" to use, their net gain can be twice those amounts, meaning that both could pass wxdude64 but not RJay. (at around 2.6" hudsonvalley would pass wxallannj). More snow at BUF could give wxdude64 back his advantage over wxallannj but hudsonvalley21 would keep pace. It would take a fairly large dump of snow at BUF to overtake RJay who is already passed there. Unless that happens I think the contest is fairly well settled now.
  9. It would only be the last two maps in play for our contest implications, and those are annual averages, various months at various locations may show odd variations -- I expect most of the 1991-2020 normals to be in the range of 0.5 to 1.0 F deg higher than the ones we have been using, whether that's going to be significant to our estimates is probably near the edge of our presumed tolerances anyway. If it's possible I will post the differentials for each location with each monthly announcement once I know that the NWS will be giving us anomalies in the new time frame. Haven't heard anything new, still on the lookout for that info (Don seemed to think it could be June). In other news, I have updated the anomaly tracker (two posts back) and found some extra snow for the contest sites in recent days, so that table will come over here from March in an updated form soon. Provisional scoring will follow. I have a feeling our consensus was pretty close. My cold came a little too late to tip the scales.
  10. After two weeks these are the anomalies and projections ... ___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 15th ___ (anom 14d) ______ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.9 __ +8.3 _ +2.5 _ +0.8 __ +3.2 _ +8.9 _ --1.4 23rd ___ (anom 22d) ______ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.9 __ +3.6 _ +0.5 _ --2.1 __ --3.2 _ +5.8 _ +2.8 15th ___ (p 21d) __________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +4.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.0 _ +7.0 _ +1.5 15th ___ (p 30d) __________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 _ +5.5 _ +1.5 23rd ___ (p 30d) __________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 __ --1.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 1st ___ (final anoms) _____ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ___ +3.0 _ +0.9 _ ---0.9 __ --1.2 _ +4.0 _ +2.7 ____________________ 15th _ A relatively warm start to the month in most regions, except the Pac NW which is warming rapidly towards a few days of near 80 F, while the eastern half of the country looks set to chill a bit anyway, with the longer term outlook returning closer to normal with variations, so the projections are based on a colder pattern for about a week to ten days then up and down near average in the east, sustained warmth in the west except that DEN gets into occasional cold northeast flows. No new snow at any of the contest sites so that report stays over in March for now. (note BOS anom estimated, 4.1 to 13th, +1 for 14th not added to CF6 report yet). 23rd _ A day late getting to the verification which is probably better than it looks because anomalies were changing fairly quickly in past two days. The projection to end of month is based on the idea that warm anomalies will outweigh cold by 2:1 as different sectors move through, so that the downward slide currently going on may continue for a couple more days then a reversal to much warmer temperatures will occur in the east, while DEN and IAH will get into very warm air soon and then turn a bit cooler. Except for DEN there have not been large changes in these projections since last week's effort. (note: these changes will need to be made to snowfall contest amounts _ DTW +3.6" (44.9") BUF +4.9" (77.0") BTV +3.5" (63.1") DEN +12.6" (80.2") The snowfall contest post in March will be updated and moved into this thread later today. 1st _ Posting final anomalies and adjusting scoring. Some final anomalies are close estimates based on 29th CF6 and 30th climate report. I am also checking against Apr 2020 CF6 to verify that normal values derived from anomalies quoted are same (i.e., 1981-2010). So far these are verified results: DCA same (both 56.8) NYC was -0.1 diff, 53.0 this year, 53.1 last year, BOS same (both 48.1) ORD was -0.1 diff, 48.9 this year, 49.0 last year (could be a rounding with NYC,ORD, or new normal is almost same as old one, in any case not significant to scoring really) ATL same (both 62.0) IAH same (both 69.5) DEN was -0.1 diff, 47.4 this year, 47.5 last year PHX same (both 72.7) SEA same (both 50.3) __ I think the 0.1 differences may be second decimal rounding results, these are obviously same normal sets as used a year ago. For example, let's say a month ends 59.23 and normal is 59.37, then the difference is -0.14 or -0.1 although from rounded values it would be -0.2. So I have convinced myself that we are still using 1981-2010 normal values for this month. __ all updated now __ scoring also updated (being double checked)
  11. In the net-weather thread I have recently edited in these new data and a few corrections: (a) March 2021 at 45.8 F (7.67 C) was t13 warmest with 1995, and Toronto (4.0 C) was t9 with 2020. (b) March 2021 at 3.41" was t60th driest with 1879. The trace of snowfall is tied with seventeen other years ranked t-4th. Only 1878, 1903 and 2012 recorded zero (no traces) snowfalls in March. (c) A new daily record of 82 F was set on March 26, 2021 (replaced 76 1922). (d) New high mins were set or tied on March 11th (52 broke 48 1898) and 26th (52 tied 1986). (e) An error was found in the max daily temps, Oct 15 should read 1956 rather than 1930 (84 F was okay). (f) The 65 F record for Dec 28 was later tied in 2008. (g) The 60 F record on Jan 24, 1967 was not color coded. Some of these additions or errors can be adjusted if you downloaded the excel file. The corrections and additions will appear in the next instalment due around June 2, 2021. I am working on a log of record and notable daily highs, which tracks the evolution of the final set through a set of "starter records" for 1869 to 1900, adjustments to 1930 (about half the starters are broken in that interval), then any other new records in chronological order to the eventual record high (if not already set), then any notable close calls and a complete log of warmest days in the recent past (1991-2021 incl). This is about three-quarters finished and is the reason why I found the errors noted above. Hopefully this work will establish that all the listed records are correct. I plan to do the same for record lows where the starter records are going to do a lot better in terms of surviving later challenges. If you downloaded the Toronto file, there was just one error found since then, a ranking error, the details are in the net-weather thread.
  12. Table of forecasts for April, 2021 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ bias RJay ______________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ +1.08 BKViking __________________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +2.4 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___+0.2 _ +1.1 _ --0.9 ___ --0.03 wxdude64 _________________+1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ --0.6 ___ +0.27 Tom ___________ (-5%) ______+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.6 __ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ --0.5 ___ --0.03 DonSutherland1 ___________ +1.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 __ +3.6 _ +0.2 _ +0.3 ___ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ --0.8 ___ +0.16 hudsonvalley21 ____________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 __ +1.9 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ --0.4 ___ +0.09 ___ Consensus _____________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.2 __ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ --0.8 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ --0.09 so_whats_happening ______ +0.8 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.8 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26 Roger Smith _______________+0.2 _ --1.4 _ --2.7 ___ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.0 ___ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ --0.5 ___ --0.30 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.14 wxallannj _________________ --0.4 _ --0.1 _ --0.4 __ --0.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.9 ___ --0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ --1.18 RodneyS __________________--0.5 _ --0.2 __ 0.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +3.7 _ +1.1 _ --1.6 ___ --0.70 __________________________________________________________________________ Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. All forecasts above normal at PHX. Bias is a measure of your average departure from consensus forecasts (which average 1.14 above normal). There may be different tendencies in the east and west in some cases.
  13. <<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Mar) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 _______________184 _190 _164 __538 __165 _206 _168 __539 __1077 __150 _238 _222 __610 ____ 1687 wxdude64 _____________________215 _213 _219 __647 __ 67 _128 _155 __350 ___ 997 __161 _249 _229 __ 639 ____ 1636 ___ Consensus ________________ 208 _218 _206 __632 __ 72 _152 _160 __384 __ 1016 __136 _236 _228 __600 ____ 1616 BKViking ______________________ 182 _212 _210 __604 __ 62 _178 _166 __406 __1010 __126 _234 _236 __596 ____ 1606 RodneyS ______________________ 170 _200 _194 __564 __ 87 _152 _122 __361 ___ 925 __174 _250 _256 __680 ____ 1605 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 198 _194 _210 __602 __ 81 _182 _170 __433 __1035 __108 _214 _238 __560 ____ 1595 Tom ___________________________ 213 _238 _241 __692 __ 48 _128 _155 __331 __1023 __119 _257 _172 __548 ____ 1571 wxallannj ______________________ 180 _218 _194 __592 __ 92 _148 _140 __380 ___ 972 __102 _224 _210 __536 ____ 1508 so_whats_happening ___________217 _190 _161 __568 __103 _229 _107 __439 __1007 __ 97 _223 _162 __482 ____ 1489 Scotty Lightning _______________ 166 _188 _168 __522 __ 18 _176 _182 __376 ___ 898 __148 _220 _196 __ 564 ____ 1462 RJay __________________________ 196 _196 _158 __550 __ 98 _146 _158 __402 ___ 952 __114 _170 _156 __440 _____ 1392 ___ Normal _____________________136 _168 _168 __472 __ 10 _116 _130 __256 ___ 728 __158 _250 _204 __612 ____ 1340 Roger Smith ___________________ 122 _114 _ 84 __320 __111 _ 98 _214 __423 ___ 743 __134 _ 158 _196 __490 ____ 1233 ____________________________________________________________________________ Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 16 locations out of 27 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb and 7 in March. Of those, ten were awarded to warmest forecasts, six to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There has been one shared win accounting for the 17 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _____ TOTAL to date DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 5-0 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- _____ 4-1 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 3-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 3-0 RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 2-0 Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 2-0 __________________________________________
  14. +0.2 __ --1.4 __ --2.7 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 __ +3.0 ___ +4.5 __ +3.0 __ --0.5 Blocking in Atlantic may mean a lot of northerly flow east of about CLE to BWI, warm in the central plains but another cool trough west coast.
  15. Final scoring for March 2021 Final anomalies __________ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +3.7 __ +6.3 _ +4.8 _ +1.7 ___ --1.0 _ --1.1 _ --0.9 ... small late penalties of 1 or 2 points incorporated where * or ** appear. For slightly larger late penalties on Tom, raw scores in orange, adjusted below in regular type. ORD was scored by "max 60" rule but ATL ended up with a raw score of 72 so by the rules it was scored by raw scores for all forecasts. The scores marked with ^ symbol are adjusted up from raw scores to progression (60, 54, 48 etc). Late penalties reduced some by 1 pts. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL wxdude64 __________ (-1%) _____73*_ 79*_ 63*__215 __ 06^_ 26 _ 89*__119 __ 334 __ 75*_ 55*_ 95*___ 225 ____ 561 so_whats_happening (-2%) _____73*_ 78** 61*__212 __ 47^_ 71*_ 65*__183 __ 395 __ 43*_ 33*_ 90**__ 166 ____ 561 hudsonvalley21 ________________52 _ 68 _ 68 __ 188 __ 30^_ 52 _ 88 ___ 170 __ 358 __ 48 _ 44 _ 98 ____ 190 ____ 548 Tom ___________________________56 _ 74 _ 70 __ 200 __ 24^_ 40 _ 96 __ 160 __ 360 __ 60 _ 68 _ 78 ____ 206 _ 566 ____________________ (-5%) ______53 _ 70 _ 67 __ 190 __ 23 _ 38 _ 91 ___ 152 __ 342 __ 57 _ 65 _ 74 ____ 196 ____ 538 RJay __________________________ 62 _ 84 _ 76 __ 222 __ 42^_ 34 _ 94 ___170 __ 392 __ 30 _ 28 _ 78 ____ 136 ____ 528 ___ Consensus ________________ 50 _ 64 _ 52 __ 166 __ 30^_ 28 _ 94 ___ 152 __ 318 __ 58 _ 54 _ 98 ____ 210 ____ 528 DonSutherland 1 ______________ 42 _ 62 _ 50 __ 154 __ 60^_ 54 _ 72 __ 186 __ 340 __ 36 _ 72 _ 76 ____ 184 ____ 524 BKViking ______________________ 50 _ 62 _ 46 __ 158 __ 42^_ 26 _ 94 __ 162 __ 320 __ 58 _ 56 _ 78 ____ 192 ____ 512 wxallannj ______________________40 _ 64 _ 52 __ 156 __ 54^_ 28 _ 92 __ 174 __ 330 __ 36 _ 54 _ 82 ____ 172 ____ 502 Scotty Lightning _______________32 _ 54 _ 36 __ 122 __ 12^_ 24 _ 94 __ 130 __ 252 __ 60 _ 48 _ 82 ____ 190 ____ 442 ___ Normal ____________________12 _ 34 _ 26 __ 072 __ 10^_ 04 _ 66 ___ 080 __ 152 __ 80 _ 78 _ 82 ____ 240 ____ 392 RodneyS ______________________ 10 _ 30 _ 24 __ 064 __ 18^_ 04 _ 70 __ 092 __ 156 __ 62 _ 66 _ 92 ____ 220 ____ 376 Roger Smith ___________________00 _ 06 _ 00 __ 006 __ 00 _ 00 _ 56 ___ 056 __ 058 __ 60 _ 54 _ 94 ____ 208 ____ 266 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Five locations saw a high score going to warmest forecast(s) and two for the coldest. DCA had a tie between so_whats_happening and wxdude64 who both predicted +3.1 (final +4.4). NYC and BOS both go to RJay with +2.5 forecasts (NYC prov +3.5, BOS final +3.7). ORD heads to DonSutherland1 (+3.0) (actual +6.3) and ATL to so_whats_happening with +3.2 (actual +4.8). DEN will be a win for wxdude64 (-2.2) as well as Normal (actual -1.0). PHX will be a win for DonSutherland1 with +0.3 as well as Normal, with outcome -1.1. IAH (+1.7) and SEA (-0.9) are out of the running with consensus closer than the extreme forecasts. So in total that's two wins each for Normal, RJay, DonSutherland1, wxdude64 and and so_whats_happening. ______________________________________________ Annual update has been posted and is now also confirmed. Looks very competitive after March. We had a tie for scoring lead in March, congrats to wxdude64 and so_whats_happening who overcame slight late penalties; Tom actually had a higher score before his somewhat larger late penalty reduced the outcome to fourth place.