Roger Smith

Potential is one thing but reality seems to be global blanding at least in the mid-latitudes. I can't remember as much boring weather as we've seen in the past five years. To my way of thinking, adding extra cloud, moisture and heat to all air masses is a recipe for less rather than more cyclogenesis. Everywhere is becoming Vladivostok.

Some details about evolution of the Great Atlantic Hurricane weather pattern. Aug 1944 had been very hot in the east, and this continued into early September. In fact NYC set a record 97F on Sep 2nd that was later erased by the 102F in 1953. It was 94F on the 3rd and 90F on the 5th. No measurable rain fell from Aug 23 to Sep 11 (a 20 day dry spell) ... Cooler air masses arrived thereafter and were in place when the G.A.H. ran up the east coast. A very warm day followed the passage of the core offshore, in strong southwest to west winds on Sep 15th as shown below ... NYC obs Sep 12 to 18 1944 Date ___ Max _ Min __ rain 09 12 ___ 72 __ 63 ___ 1.64 09 13 ___ 74 __ 66 ___ 3.94 09 14 ___ 78 __ 65 ___ 3.82 09 15 ___ 86 __ 70 ___ Tr 09 16 ___ 84 __ 66 ___ 0.00 09 17 ___ 80 __ 63 ___ 0.00 09 18 ___ 73 __ 63 ___ 0.00 09 19 ___ 69 __ 64 ___ 0.09 Weather maps show the G.A.H. at these locations: Sep 13 1944 n.e Bahamas Sep 14 1944 near C Hatteras 12z to s.e. Long Island Sep 15 1944 across Cape Cod into Bay of Fundy (rapidly weakening to TS) Sep 16 1944 absorbed by northern low near e Nfld The 9.40" of rain that fell Sep 12-14 represented 90% of the month's rain (0.77" fell on 28th), and another 14 day dry spell followed Sep 29 to Oct 12 during which another record high was set (88F on Oct 7, 1944). And they say climate change is making the weather more intense. S-u-u-re.

Frederic went on to drop 4-6 inches of rain in upstate NY and east-central Ontario. I remember the month of Sep 1979 (in Ontario) as being almost bone dry apart from the one day of heavy rain and strong NE winds from then TS Frederic. Then Sep 1989 had a lot more action before Hugo followed a similar track through the Lake Ontario region and dropped similar amounts of rain (landfall in that case was of course SC).

We didn't know it at the time but the contest was basically over on June 25th. One later tie occurred on July 26th. I guess there is a faint chance of a higher value later but very faint indeed.

Probably this will be the final result ... but I will check later data to be certain. <<< Probable Final Results of 2025 Seasonal Max Contest >>> Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in WxUSAF (4) ____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 1 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 1 0 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 1 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 0 0 ___2 (rank 4) ____0 toolsheds (12) ___________________99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 101 ___ 0 0 0 2 ___2 (rank 5) ____0 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 2 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 1 1 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 3 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 0 1 ___ 3 (rank 8)____0 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 1 0 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 1 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 0 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 0 2 ___ 4 (rank 10)____0 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 1 3 ___ 6 (rank 11)____ 0 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 __ 101 ___ 1 2 2 2 ___ 7 (rank 12) ____0 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 1 3 3 1 ___ 8 (rank 13) ____ 0 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 2 1 ___ 8 (rank 14) ____ 0 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 2 2 __ 10 (rank 15) ____ 0 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 3 1 __ 10 (rank 16) ____ 0 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 3 2 __ 10 (rank 17) ____ 0 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 3 1 __ 12 (rank 18) ____ 0 Miss Pixee (L-1) ________________ 104 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 5 4 3 1 __ 13 (rank 18.5) __ 0 gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 3 3 __ 15 (rank 19) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 4 4 __ 15 (rank 20)____ 0 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 5 4 __ 17 (rank 21) ____ 0 Jebman (L-2) __________________ 106 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 7 6 3 2 __ 18 (rank 22) ____ 0 ____________________________ Congrats (probably) to WxUSAF for a near-perfect call.

Note: after reading Don's later post on this subject, I checked my data and discovered a few additional 89s and 90s, Other than that it would appear our data largely match up. I have added a few details to the original post which follows ... At least 16 years have had a 90F or higher reading in astronomical autumn (not a precise measure but I counted only cases from Sep 21 onward). Those with an asterisk did not set a daily record or did not maintain it to present day. A few of these years (1895, 1914, 1941, 1970) had several days above 90. 1881 _ 91F Sep 26 1895 _ 95, 95, 97 Sep 21-23 and 90 Sep 26 1914 _ 94, 95, 92 Sep 21-23 1927 * _ 90F Oct 2 1931 * _ 92F Sep 22 1933 _ 90F Sep 27 1938 _ 90F Oct 17 1939 _ 91 Oct 10 1940 *_ 92 Sep 21 1941 _ 91 Sep 23, 94 90 Oct 5-6 1959 _ 90 Sep 23 1961 * _ 90 Sep 22 1970 _ 94 93 (87) 90 91 _ Sep 22-26 1980 *_ 94F Sep 22 2017 _ 91F Sep 24 2019 _ 93F Oct 2 In these years there were at least 26 days with 90+ readings and the average of all of them was 92. The highest was 97 (23rd 1895). So never say never to 90F. * to be clear about 1927, it holds a record of 88F for Oct 1st but lost its 90F record for the 2nd to 2019. The others marked (1931, 1940, 1961, 1980) were not records when they happened, as they were in the records set in 1895-1914-1970. Most of the 89F readings are not records either, the 1986 one is (Sep 30th). It was 88F as late as Oct 22nd 1979. That date also had the record high min of 67F in 1979. This was probably the latest calendar date to match modern normal temperatures in July (Nov 1-2 1950 were close). There were also 89s without any 90+ in 1922 (Oct 5), 1926 (Sep 25), 1958 (Sep 26), 1986 (Sep 30), 1998 (Sep 27) and 2010 (Sep 25). ... (89s with 90+ in same year) ... There was an 89F on Sep 25 1881 and two in 1959 with the 90F between them, on Sep 22, 24. Also there was an 89F on Sep 23, 2019. There were 88F readings as follows ... Sep 28, 1881; Sep 30, 1905, Sep 24, 1920; Oct 2, 1922; Oct 1, 1927; Oct 4, 1941; Oct 7, 1944; Sep 29, 1945; Oct 10, 1949; Oct 6, 1959; Sep 21, 1965; Oct 22, 1979; Sep 25, 2017. Years where max Sep 21 and later was 87F include 1891 (9/26 and 10/5), 1897 (10/16), 1919 (Oct 3), 1930 (Sep 25), 1946 (Oct 6), 1954 (Oct 13), 1968 (Sep 22, 25), 2007 (Sep 26, Oct 8) and 2016 (Sep 23); There are other 87s that I do not list here, in years already identified above with higher readings than 87. I would say 85 and 86 are frequent enough that they form a median for all years in regard to warmest temperature after Sep 20, but quite a few years never broke 80 in the part of the year after Sep 20th. The last 80+ reading of 2021 was Sep 18th.

Just looking at maps and seeing remnants of the southwestern storm moisture over n/c AZ where it's only in the mid-60s. Then I looked over at Colorado and there's one station reporting 21/15 ... is that for real or is it a Celsius conversion that's not supposed to be on the map? The station is ABH -- is that on top of a mountain or what's going on there? (data on mesoscale maps on SPC site as of past hour 19z)

I try to remember to post these on the first but anyway here we go ... <<<< SEPTEMBER daily records, NYC >>>> Date ___ Hi max __ Hi min ___ Low max _ Low min ___ 1d rain __ 2d rain __ notes Sep 01 __ 97 1953 __ 76 1898^_____ 59 1869 __ 51 1869 _______ 7.13 2021 _ 7.13 2021 Sep 02 _102 1953 __ 79 1898 _____ 62 1869 __ 51 1886 _______ 2.12 1899 _ 7.23 2021 Sep 03 __ 99 1929 __ 78 1898 _____ 62 1935 __ 50 1885, 93 ___ 3.32 1969 _ 3.44 1974 (0.18+3.26) Sep 04 __ 97 1929 __ 78 1898 _____ 66 1984 __ 47 1872, 83 ___ 3.48 1913 _ 6.28 1969 Sep 05 __ 94 1985 __ 77 1898 _____ 62 1926 __ 51 1963 ________2.45 1878 _ 4.14 1913 Sep 06 __ 97 1881 __ 78 1985 ______ 56 1963 __ 48 1924 _______3.26 2008 _ 3.54 2008 __ 3.22 2011 (1d) Sep 07 __101 1881 __ 79 1881 _______ 63 1877,88 _46 1888 _____ 2.07 1998 _ 4.43 2011 (3.22 + 1.21) Sep 08 __ 97 2015 __ 76 2015 _______ 63 1918 __ 52 1871 ______ 4.86 1934 _ 5.48 1934 __ 3.77 2004 (1d) Sep 09 __ 94 1915 __ 77 1884 _______ 61 1880,83 _48 1883 _____0.86 1902 _ 4.86 1934** Sep 10 __ 97 1931,83 _77 1884 ______ 62 1883 __ 43 1883 ______ 1.80 2023 _ 1.82 2023 Sep 11 __ 99 1931,83 _ 78 1983 ______61 1876,1914 _43 1917 (62)__ 2.90 1954 _ 3.46 2023 _ (3.30 1954) Sep 12 __ 94 1961 __ 77 1895 _______ 62 1883 __ 46 1917 ________2.35 1960 _ 3.23 1882 Sep 13 __ 94 1952 __ 75 1890 _______ 59 1965 __ 46 1963 _______3.94 1944 _ 5.58 1944 __ 3.37 1889 2d Sep 14 __ 93 1931 __ 74 1947 _______ 60 1873 _____46 1911, 75 ___3.82 1944 _ 7.76 1944 _ 3.10 1945 (1d) Sep 15 __ 92 1927 __ 75 1931,2005 _ 57 1954 _____44 1873 ______4.16 1933 _ 7.00 1933 Sep 16 __ 93 1915 __ 73 1903,2005 _ 60 1872 _____47 1966 ______5.02 1999 _ 5.44 1999 __ 4.38 1933 (2d) Sep 17 __ 93 1991 __ 77 1991 ________ 57 1945 _____45 1986 ______3.37 1876 _ 4.14 1874 __ 3.28 1874 (1d) Sep 18 __ 91 1891 __ 72 1905, 72 ____ 60 1875 _____44 1990 ______3.92 1936 _ 6.23 1874 Sep 19 __ 94 1983 __ 74 1906 _______ 51 1875^____ 44 1929 ______4.30 1894 _ 5.16 1894 __ 3.95 1936 (2d) Sep 20 __ 93 1895, 1983_77 1906 _____59 1901 _____44 1993 ______2.32 1989 _ 4.21 1989 Sep 21 __ 95 1895 __ 77 1895 ________56 1871 _____40 1871 _______5.54 1966 _ 5.74 1938 __ 4.05 1938 (1d) Sep 22 __ 95 1895,1914_75 1895 ______55 1875,1904__41 1904 ______2.34 1882 _ 5.64 1966 __ 3.55 1882 (2d) Sep 23 __ 97 1895 __ 77 1970 _______57 1963 _____ 41 1947 ______ 8.28 1882__10.62 1882 __ 2.72 1919 (1d) Sep 24 __ 91 2017 __ 74 1970 _______ 52 1887 _____40 1963 ______ 2.26 1975 _ 8.30 1882 __ 4.56 1975 (2d) Sep 25 __ 90 1970 __ 71 1881,1970 __ 53 1879 _____40 1887 _______2.36 1940 _ 3.31 1975 __ 7.43" 4d total 23-26 1975 Sep 26 __ 91 1881, 1970_74 1895 _____ 54 2000 _____42 1940 ______ 2.34 2008 _ 2.87 1975 __ 2.35" 1991 (1.97+0.38) Sep 27 __ 90 1933 __ 75 1881 ______ 56 1893 _____41 1947, 57 ____ 3.13 1985 _ 3.58 1985 Sep 28 __ 88 1881 __ 72 1891 ______ 53 1984 _____41 1947 ________ 3.84 2004 _ 3.84 2004 Sep 29 __ 88 1945 __ 72 1959,2015 _ 53 1888 ____ 42 1888,1914,42 __5.48 2023 _ 5.84 2023^ _ Sep 30 __ 89 1986 __ 70 1959 ______ 52 1888 ____ 39 1912 (hi 60)__ 2.64 1983 _ 2.64 1983 __ 2.21 1920 (1d) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- For 2d rainfalls, which are always total of previous date and current date in table, ^symbol means all rain fell on that day only, and ** symbol means all rain fell the previous day with zero added on date in table. some other notes 1st high min shared 1898, 1980, 2010, 2015 2nd, 3rd 1953 min 77, 77. also 75 on 3rd, 1973. 2nd __ note also 3.00 2-3 for 1899 3rd 2d rain 1969 3.45" (0.11 + 3.32) .01" less than 1974 2d. 1st-7th hot in 1898: 93, 93, 93, 92, 90, 88, 88 (no records though, set or shared high min 1st-5th) 5th high min shared 1898, 1907, 1985, 2018 9th 0.82" is lowest daily precip record of the calendar year. 14th 2d rain 1971 4.34 (0.58 + 3.76) ... 3d 12th-14th 6.10" 19th min with record low max was 45 (one higher than daily low min) 20-21 1938 the 2d rainfall total occurred with stalled fronts associated with the "Long Island Express" hurricane, with rain on 19th added the three day total was 7.50" and a further 0.63" fell on 17th-18th. The heavier rainfall on 21st 1966 pushed the daily max of 4.05" out of the record column. The 1966 rainfall was not of tropical storm origins. The 2d total for 20-21 was 5.56" (only 0.02" added from 20th) which did not quite exceed the 2d total for 1938. 28-29 4.68 2004 (3.84+0.82) and 28-29 another heavy 2d rainfall was 3.04" in 1907 (0.91+2.13). 29 record rainfall before 2023 was 2.18" 1963

Today Ashcroft BC reported 40.6 C. That may not be the highest, may see a more complete list later.

"1821: A hurricane made landfall at Long Island, near Kennedy Airport, then moved through western Connecticut." Plenty of cancelled flights, no doubt.

Yes it was crazy hot here and will be for several more days. Also in eastern WA, Spokane had a record high of 99F (previous 97F 1988) and on the regional roundup it was 101 at CDA and 100 at Colville WA which is just south of my location. A lot of small fires in that area too, nothing really close to my location. Quite a lot of forest fire smoke developing across Alberta now from fires in the Rockies and north central BC. Some of that smoke could appear in parts of the central U.S. soon.

Don, as you were saying a few days ago, records are tumbling in the western interior regions and I think it's close to certain that in Canada we would break the monthly record of 38+ C you mentioned (from Ontario in 1881) ... where I live it feels very close to 40 C today, waiting to see what records were broken when they do the weather segment on our local news (they are pretty diligent at reporting records). I will post any that I see although I know you have sources for them. It was hot like this at the opening of Sept 2016 also, and eventually I think that spread east.

Four Seasons Winter, Spring, Summer 2024-2025 scoring 12 pts to winner, 10 down to 1 point for rest of field, and 1 point for all entrants with at least 2 of 3 contests entered. (said I would add this to annual scoring, it may eventually get moved there but for your current interest I have posted it today ... annual leader Tom had a low score in Dec 2024 which explains how this is closer than the points contest for annual 2025) ____________________________ winter ___________ spring _________ summer________ FORECASTER _____________TOTAL __pts___TOTAL _pts __ Jun Jul Aug_ TOTAL _pts __ TOTAL Points ___ Consensus ___________ 1771 __ 9.7 ____ 1767 ___7.4 __ 760 788 540 _ 2088_ 10 ___27.1 Tom _______________________1417 ___ 1 _____ 2053 __ 12 ____788 780 586 _ 2154 __12 ___ 25 so_whats_happening ______1662 ___ 8 ____ 1805 ___ 8 ____ 724 774 540 _ 2038 _ 8 ____24 Don Sutherland1 __________ 1587 ___ 5 _____1733 ___ 6 ____ 742 774 572 _ 2088 _ 10 ____21 Scotty Lightning __________ 1542 ___ 4 _____1741 ___ 7 ____ 766 758 528 _ 2052 _ 9 ____ 20 RJay ______________________ 1703 ___ 9 ____ 1689 ___ 5 ____ 758 746 468 _ 1972 _ 5 ____ 19 StormchaserChuck _______ 1328 ___ 1 _____1953 ___10 ____ 718 724 568 _ 2010 _ 7 ____ 18 BKViking __________________1805 __ 12 ____ 1621 ____ 4 ____ 692 --- --- ___ 692 _ 0 ____ 16 hudsonvalley21 ____________1532 ___ 3 ____ 1933 ___ 9 ____ 740 758 452 _ 1950 _ 4 ____ 16 wxallannj __________________1800 __ 10 ____ 1561 ____ 3 ____732 728 446 _ 1906 _ 2 ____ 15 wxdude64 ________________ 1653 ___ 7 _____ 1436 ___ 1 ____ 724 746 510 _ 1980 _ 6 ____ 14 Roger Smith _______________ 1617 ___ 6 _____ 1368 ___ 1 ____ 686 800 394 _ 1880 _ 1 ____ 8 RodneyS __________________ 1488 ___ 2 _____1474 ____ 2 ___ 648 640 650 _ 1938 _ 3 ____ 7 ___ Normal _______________ 1387 ___ 1 _____ 1440 ____1 ____ 612 616 550 _ 1778 _ 1 ____ 3 (Yoda 542 Aug) ___________________________ Several with a chance of winning this in the last seasonal addition at end of NOV.

Table of forecasts for September 2025 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.3 _-0.2 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 yoda _________________________ +0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.4_+0.9 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+1.4 _+2.7 DonSutherland1 ______________+0.2 _ -0.1 _ 0.0 _ +0.4 _+0.3 _+0.8__+1.8 _+1.7 _+3.2 RJay _________________________+0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 _ 0.0 _ +1.1 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ____________________ -0.2 _-0.4 _-0.3 _-0.8 _+0.2 _+0.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ Consensus ______________-0.2_-0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _ 0.0 _ +0.9 __+1.0_+1.4_+1.9 so_whats_happening ________-0.3 __0.0 _ +0.2 _+0.3 _-0.5 _ -0.5 __+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 Tom _________________________ -0.9 _-1.2 _ -1.1 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.6 _+1.8 BKViking _____________________-1.9 _ -2.1 _ -1.8 _ -2.3 _-0.5 _-0.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _ +0.4 RodneyS _____________________-2.3 _ -0.9 _-0.8 _ -2.2 _-2.3 _+0.9 __+0.3 _+0.5 _+1.8 wxdude64 ___________________-2.5 _ -1.6 _ -0.9 _ -2.6 _-0.8 _ +0.5 __-0.6 _+0.7 _+1.9 StormchaserChuck1 _________ -2.6 _ -2.0 _-1.6 _ -3.5 _-0.8 _ -0.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+3.0 ============ ___ Persistence _______________ -3.6 _-2.3 _-2.1 __-0.5 _-2.0 _+1.7 __+0.9 _+3.8 _+1.4 ________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts (not including Persistence) are color coded. Normal is also coldest for PHX and SEA. Persistence is colder than all forecasts for NYC and BOS, and warmer for IAH and PHX. (by small margins except for PHX)

So, all scoring is updated, you can find both the August and the annual scoring back before the September forecast posts (which began with Scotty Lightning) ... what was the intro to September post, if you even saw that, is now seasonal max scoring, and what used to be that is now the annual update appearing after the August scores. I will add a four seasons update to the annual update in a day or two. In general the scoring was a bit down from the July point-fest, and RodneyS had a bit of an edge on the field, moving up two spots as a result. There are a few other minor changes but Tom remains comfortably in front, with 2nd and 3rd being exchanged by a few points differential (so_whats_happening edged past hudsonvalley21). Also moving up, no big surprise, a certain Don Sutherland. Meanwhile, bottoming out, well let's not get hung up on details here.