Roger Smith

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.

Nov 9-13 may be the only five day interval where some or most people reading this were alive when NYC set its daily record low. After the 9th (1976) two were set in 2017 and two in 2019 (probably on same nights rather than two consecutive nights in each case). Two out of three of the winters following these unusual record lows were of course good ones, 2019-20 closer to average by recent standards. Add to this the 2012 snowfall event and this is one of the few times of year to outperform the classic climate of the past in terms of producing cold weather and snow. Not that this necessarily would affect the 30-year average, I suppose there have also been intervals that were well above normal to compensate. The ones that come to mind are a bit earlier such as 1975, 2022 and 2024.

BWI 16.7" DCA 14.5" IAD 16.9" RIC 12.0" SBY 9.8" numerous small events and one moderate event in a fast flow highly variable pattern

__ Table of forecasts for November 2025 __ FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____+1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 --------------- Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DEN and PHX.

Re the approaching Newfoundland windstorm, you don't often see changes this rapid and dynamic at a weather buoy site such as this one to the south of western Newfoundland ... winds went from east 40 knots to south 50-70 knots to west 50-65 knots in about three hours and the temperature spiked at 20 C (68 F). I see reports already of southeast winds gusting to 100 km/hr in southeast Newfoundland but I wonder if the public forecast is strongly worded enough for the gusts that are going to hit there in about 2-3 hours from now? http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44139

Quite the windstorm developing overnight to hit southeast Newfoundland (Avalon Pen) on Tuesday, winds could be near 150 km/hr in gusts. Low deepens to 945 mb as it approaches the Terra Nova area. I wonder if this is a sign of explosive development potential for lows later on in the approaching winter season in the general area? Then the next one along on Wednesday night develops rapidly off Nova Scotia and could bring 2-4" snowfalls to Atlantic Canada and eastern Maine towards conclusion of storm precip Thursday morning, but it looks like just a few wind blown flurries for New England otherwise, maybe scattered 0.5 to 1.0 inch snow over higher terrain .... are Lake Champlain snow squalls possible? ... there are some unusually cold air masses for this early showing up.

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point. General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.

Worth noting one record set at NYC in October was daily rainfall on Oct 30, 1.83" replaces 1.64" (1917). Now that's a good year to be copying, right?

I posted these ideas in other subforums ... I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. and would add more specific to this region, one or two blizzards likely on tracks from Nebraska to n MO to s IN-OH, frequent strong lake effect downwind of L Michigan and L Huron, very large temperature oscillations likely as Pacific mild and arctic cold air masses alternate in a fast flow with frequent alternations but one or two spells of deep cold centered on the Midwest region. Yours may be the "it" sub-forum for winter 2025-26. Could be similar to that recent winter when MLI, MSP set snowfall records? was that 2020-21? I recall it from snowfall contests we used to have in this subforum.

I recently posted this in the New England subforum and it would apply to NYC subforum as well ... I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. Will add for NYC, my prediction is 18-23 inches for NYC, 15-20 for JFK, 23-28 for EWR, 30-40 s CT and parts of LI. A more average sort of winter by modern standards at least. I think the big weather stories will be in the Midwest with huge temperature swings and some powerful lake effect storms at times. Probably one decent coastal snowstorm somewhere like mid to late January into early February.

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.

<<<<< NOVEMBER daily records at NYC 1869-2024 >>>>> DATE ____ High max __ High min ___ Low max __ Low min __ Max prec (r) _Max 2d rain_ Max snow Nov 01 ___ 84 1950 ____ 65 1956 _______ 41 1869,75 _ 30 1869, 1877 ____ 1.69 1988 ___ 2.83 1956 __ 0.1 1887 Nov 02 ___ 83 1950 ____ 67 1971 _______ 41 1875,95 _ 30 1887 (43 1st) __ 1.70 1954 ___ 2.29 1897 __ Tr 1895, 1954 Nov 03 ___ 79 2003 ____ 64 1936 ______ 37 1879 _____ 28 1875 __________2.60 1910 ___ 2.60^1910* _ Tr 1951,58,62 Nov 04 ___ 78 1975 ____ 62 1982 _______ 35 1879 _____ 25 1879 __________1.55 1950 ___ 3.37 1910 __ no snow (latest) Nov 05 ___ 78 1961 ____ 64 2022^______ 35 1879 _____ 23 1879 __________1.94 1984 ___ 1.96 1985^__ 0.1 1933 Nov 06 ___ 80 2024^__ 66 2015,22 ____38 1878,1953_27 1879 (40) ______1.47 1911 ___ 1.94 1984**_ 2.5 1879 (2.2 1953) Nov 07 ___ 78 1938 ____ 63 1938 _______ 41 2012^_____ 29 1930 (43) ____ 2.96 1963 ___ 4.23 1963 __ 4.3 2012 Nov 08 ___ 76 1975 ____ 63 1975 _______ 38 1886 _____ 29 1886, 2019 ____ 7.40 1977^___ 9.19 1977 __ 0.4 2012 (4.7 2d) Nov 09 ___ 75 1975,2020_ 64 1895 _____ 37 1894 _____ 24 1976 (41) _____3.65 1889 ___ 7.40 1977**_ 2.3 1892 Nov 10 ___ 74 2020 _____60 2020^______ 38 1873 _____ 25 2017 (51) _____1.70 1990 ___ 3.68 1889 __ Tr 1877,1971,87 Nov 11 ___ 74 1949 ____ 64 2002, 2020 _ 33 1987 _____ 24 2017 (38) ____1.41 1995 ___ 1.71 1987^__ 1.1 1987 Nov 12 ___ 76 1879 ____ 60 2022* _____ 38 1894 _____ 25 2019 _________ 1.82 1975 ___ 2.39 1947^__ Tr (2013^) Nov 13 ___ 73 1931 ____ 59 1909 _______ 33 1911 _____ 23 2019 (34) ______ 2.06 1937 ___ 2.19 1937 __ Tr (2014^) Nov 14 ___ 72 1993 ____ 58 1951 _______ 29 1873 _____ 20 1905 (36) ______2.23 1972 ___ 2.23 1972* _ 1.0 1911 Nov 15 ___ 80 1993 ____ 61 1989 _______ 32 1933 _____ 20 1967 (35 16th) _ 2.43 1892 ___ 2.43 1892*_ 6.4 2018 Nov 16 ___ 72 1928 ____ 59 2006 _______29 1883 _____ 17 1933 (30) ______ 2.39 1985 ___ 3.19 1892 __ 1.0 1872 Nov 17 ___ 71 1953 ____ 60 1927 _______ 30 1924 _____ 19 1924, 33 _______ 1.54 2014 ___ 2.79 1985 __ Tr (1980^) Nov 18 ___ 73 1921,28 _ 57 1928 _______ 33 1914,24,59_18 1936 (49) ______ 1.24 1911 ___ 1.54 2014** _2.0 1873 Nov 19 ___ 72 1921 ____ 57 1906,2015 __ 31 1880 _____ 18 1936 (37) ______1.95 1932 ___ 1.97 1932 __ 0.3 1884 Nov 20 ___ 77 1985 ____ 62 1985 _______ 32 1873 _____ 21 1873 ___________3.37 1988 ___ 3.38 1988 __ 1.0 1955 Nov 21 ___ 74 1900 ____ 62 1991 _______ 24 1879 _____ 16 1879 ___________1.57 2024^___ 3.37 1988**_ 0.8 1937 Nov 22 ___ 72 1931 ____ 58 1931,92 ____ 23 1880 _____ 13 1880 ___________2.03 1878 ___ 2.52 2023^ __ 0.3 1989 Nov 23 ___ 72 1931 ____ 58 1931 _______ 25 1880 _____ 14 1880 __________ 1.84 1923 ___ 2.03 1878**_ 4.4 1989 (4.7 2d) Nov 24 ___ 73 1979 ____ 61 1979 _______ 30 1880,2013_ 14 1880 _________ 1.99 1873 ___ 2.20 1873 __ 3.9 1938 Nov 25 ___ 73 1979 ____ 62 1979 _______29 1938 ______ 19 1938 __________ 1.59 1950 ___ 1.99 1873**__ 4.9 1938 (8.8 2d) Nov 26 ___ 67 1946 ___ 55 1946,2020__26 1880 _____ 16 1880, 1938 ____ 1.91 1996 ___ 1.93 1996 __ 5.0 1898 (4.5 1882) Nov 27 ___ 72 1896 ____ 60 1896 ______28 1898,1932 __12 1932 __________2.15 1889 ___ 2.49 2013^_ 5.0 1898 (10.0 2d) Nov 28 ___ 70 2011 ____ 56 2011 _______ 24 1871 ______ 15 1930 (27) ______2.14 1937 ___ 3.09 1889 __ 0.8 1912 Nov 29 ___ 69 1990 ____ 58 2005 ______ 25 1871 ______ 14 1875 __________ 2.20 2016 ___ 2.20 2016*__ 3.8 1892 (+0.2 30th) Nov 30 ___ 70 1991 ____ 58 2006 ______ 14 1875 ______ 5 1875___________1.11 1928 ___ 2.93 2016 __ 9.0 1882 (4.9 1898) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- NOTES (For 2d precip (rainfalls), ** indicates all of the precip fell the previous day and * indicates all of it fell on the one day with zero the previous day.) (Temps in brackets after record low minima are that day's maximum if it was not also a record low maximum) ^ 3rd _ 2d rainfall 1992 2.56" (0.38+2.18) ^ 5th _ 2d rainfall 1985 1.96" (0.30+1.66) edged out 1984 (0 +1.94) also 5th _ former record high min 63F (1938) * 6th _ 2022 (75F) broke previous high maximum of 74F set in 1948 and 2015. ... 80F in 2024 then broke 2022 record. ^ 7th _ low max tied 1886, 1903, 1927, 2012 ^ 8th _ 5.60" rain 1972 fell on the only day in Nov when it would not be a daily record. No additional rain on either 7th or 9th. ^ 8th _ 3.60" rain 2006 also fell on this date, .02" added on 7th, zero on 9th. ^ 10th _ 60F high min 2020 replaces 58F 1966, 1977. ^ 10th-11th _ 1.71" rain 1987 (1.26+0.45) edged out 1990 which had 1.70 + zero for the two days. 1962 had 1.61 + zero. ^ 11th-12th _ 2.39" rain 1947 (0.80+1.59). * 12th _ high min (60F) 2022 broke previous tied record 56F 1912, 1935 ^ 12th _ trace snowfalls 1934,68,77,87,95, 2013 ^ 13th _ trace snowfalls 1896,1921,34,39,42,68,77,84,2004, 2014, 2021. ^ 17th _ trace snowfalls 1873, 1882, 1935, 40, 67, 80 ^ 21st _ 2024 broke 1944 record of 1.33" ^ 22nd _ 2d rainfall record 2023 (2.52") (0.59+1.93) _ replaces 2.14" 1878 _ 1.93" not a daily record 22nd ^ 26th-27th 2.49" rain 2d 2013 (0.51+1.98) ____________________________________________________________________________

-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 __ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.8

You can add in that Toronto had 12" of snow in this same storm, it largest October fall on record by a wide margin. Second largest was 5" on October 22, 1969.

Reminder to NYC participants to visit contest thread with or without costumes by 31st.