Roger Smith

2-3 hours more snow in eastern NC as 500 mb low is still back around SC coast and slowly catching up to the surface storm out in the ocean. The precip will likely become much lighter once the 500 mb low has passed to the east of given locations, but it won't necessarily end entirely right away.

42F with a wind chill below freezing at Orlando, below freezing now in n FL. Sort of like an October lake effect squall setup down there now.

The 500, 700, 850, 925 and surface lows are aligned now from nwSC to off the SC coast and the slope (imagine this to be a very large F1 tornado tilted to west at highest point) is slowly decreasing as each level catches up to the one closer to the surface. Surface banding is tending to be squeezed together by this process as the further west the snow, the more connected it is to upper level lows. This should slowly fill in that long-lived dry slot near Raleigh and allow them to join the party (a bit late so totals will be 4-7"). This storm will continue to rip for 6-9 more hours before the 500 mb low drifts out to sea. Some places could end up with 18-24 inch totals as heavier bands will develop now that stronger winds are blowing in from the ocean. Some gusts to 50 or 60 mph likely in exposed coastal areas this evening into the overnight. Severe blowing and drifting of snow will occur. Wind chill values of 5-10 F or lower, seldom if ever observed before in coastal NC are possible. Further inland it won't get that windy but gusts to 35 mph will be widespread, blowing and drifting snow will strand some travelers, and wind chills will drop to near or below zero F.

A reminder to contest participants to enter by end of weekend for Feb (deadline extended to Feb 2 06z).

Well maybe the OBX zones.

(cross-posted from obs thread) Note the feature over e TN, sw VA into w NC is a wave on arctic front, the upper level low is still back around n.e. Missouri and central IL dropping southeast. Moderate snow partly lake enhanced has broken out over n/c IL associated with the upper low. This light to moderate snow band will catch up to the pivoting arctic frontal wave tonight and Saturday morning as the low begins to deepen more rapidly off the coast. The 500 mb low has not quite closed off yet. 850 mb temps behind it are -24C (-12F) in Iowa. That slug of very cold air will be somewhere near TLH by this time Saturday (modified slightly). We will be seeing dynamics that may only be equalled by Feb 12-13 1899 in that region.

Note the feature over e TN, sw VA into w NC is a wave on arctic front, the upper level low is still back around n.e. Missouri and central IL dropping southeast. Moderate snow partly lake enhanced has broken out over n/c IL associated with the upper low. This light to moderate snow band will catch up to the pivoting arctic frontal wave tonight and Saturday morning as the low begins to deepen more rapidly off the coast.

<<<< FEBRUARY NYC DAILY RECORDS >>>> Note: Max 2d snow is the listed date plus the previous date, so for example 17.4" fell Feb 3-4 1961. Any 2d total with * symbol had all of its snow on the calendar date and zero the previous day. Any 2d total with ** had all of its snow the previous day and none on calendar date of table listing. ... Also, any number in brackets after a Low min record is that day's non-record-low max. R or S after precip indicates whether the value was mostly rain, snow or a combination (RS). Some of those may be snow+sleet. Date _____ High max ____ High min _______ Low max ____ Low min _______ Max prec ___ Max snow ___ Max 2d snow Feb 01 __ 67 1989 ____ 50 1988 ______12 1971 _____-2 1920 _______2.15 1915R__14.8 2021 ___16.8 2021^ Feb 02 __ 59 1988 ____ 42 1952 _______8 1881 ____-3 1881 _______2.98 1973R__5.0 2015___ 15.2 2021** Feb 03 __ 64 1991 ____ 46 1999,2006 __16 1917 ____0 1955 _______ 1.55 1972R___8.0 2014 ___8.0 2014* Feb 04 __ 68 1991 ____ 46 1991 _______12 1886 _____0 1886,1918 ___ 2.10 1961RS_11.4 1961 ____17.4 1961 Feb 05 __ 70 1991 ____ 51 1991 ________ 4 1918 _____-6 1918^________1.43 2014RS__5.9 1920 ___11.6 1920 Feb 06 __ 68 2008 ____42 1884,1938 __10 1895 ____-4 1895 ______ 2.74 1896R__15.5 1978 ____15.5 1978* (11.3 1920 3d 17.0") Feb 07 __ 56 2020 ____ 42 1904 ______10 1875 _____ 1 1910 _______ 2.96 1941R__12.5 1967 ____17.7 1978 (15.2 1967) Feb 08 __ 62 2017 ____ 48 1965 _______ 8 1895 _____ -7 1934 ______ 1.15 2013RS__8.0 1870 ____12.5 1967** Feb 09 __ 63 1990 ____ 46 2005 _______8 1934 _____-15 1934 _____ 1.74 1885R __14.0 1969 ___14.0 1969* Feb 10 __ 61 1990,2001,2023_ 47 2024* __7 1899 ____-6 1899 ______ 2.63 1970R___10.4 1926 ___15.3 1969 (12.0 1926) Feb 11 __ 65 1960,2009 _50 1966 _______ 9 1899 _____-2 1885, 99 ___ 2.74 1886R___12.8 1994 ___12.8 1994* (12.5 1983) Feb 12 __ 62 1999,2018 _ 45 1966 _______9 1899 ____-3 1914 (10) ___1.66 2006S___24.1 2006___26.9 2006 (17.6 1983) Feb 13 __ 64 1951 ____ 47 1880 _______11 1899 _____-1 1914 ________ 2.42 1966R___10.7 1899^___16.0 1899 Feb 14 __ 63 1946 ____ 50 1949 ______ 12 1916 _____-1 2016 (15) ___ 1.59 1914RS__ 8.1 1914 ____12.5 2014 (9.5+3.0) Feb 15 __ 73 1949 ____ 49 1984 _______8 1943 _____-8 1943 _______2.60 1869R___ 5.4 1922 ____9.0 1940 (7.7+1.3) Feb 16 __ 71 1954 ____ 56 2023^______11 1904 _____ 1 1888 _________ 1.40 1885R___ 9.9 1996 ____9.9 1996* Feb 17 __ 68 2022 ____ 49 2022 ______ 7 1896 _____-5 1896 ________1.49 2003S__16.3 2003____19.8 2003 (10.7 1996)^ Feb 18 __ 68 1981 ____ 48 1981 _______16 1958 _____0 1979 (13,17 17th-18th)_1.50 1887R__3.5 1928 ___16.3 2003** Feb 19 __ 66 1997 ____ 53 2017 _______16 1903 _____ 1 1936 (18) ____ 2.15 1908RS_ 12.7 1979 ___12.7 1979* Feb 20 __ 69 1930,39__48 1939 _______16 1885 _____ 2 2015 (19) ____3.07 1898R^__ 12.5 1921 __ 12.7 1979** (7.6" 1934 4,9+2.7) Feb 21 __ 78 2018^____55 2018 ________17 1870 _____ 4 1896 ________ 1.86 1902RS__ 8.0 1929 ___12.5 1921** _ (9.2 1929)^ Feb 22 __ 69 1997 ____ 46 1996 _______21 1963 _____ 8 1918, 63 _____2.39 1878R___ 6.0 2008 ___6.0 2008* Feb 23 __ 72 1874 ____ 55 1985 _______19 1873 _____ 5 1889 _________1.38 1928R___4.8 1972 ____ 5.8 2001 (5.5+0.3) Feb 24 __ 75 1985 ____ 58 2017 _______10 1894 _____-1 1873 ________ 1.69 1977R___6.0 1907 ____ 6.0 1907* Feb 25 __ 75 1930 ____ 51 1930 _______16 1934 _____ 1 1894, 1914 ___ 2.11 1916R___9.4 2010 ____ 9.4 2010* Feb 26 __ 65 1890 ____ 49 1976 _______19 1900 _____ 7 1928, 1990 __ 1.87 1929R__11.5 2010 ____20.9 2010 (9.3" 1934 3.7+5.6) Feb 27 __ 72 1997 ____ 49 1976 _______18 1886 _____ 5 1900 _________ 1.56 2013R___4.0 1873 ____11.5 2010** (8.9" 1991 8.4+0.5) Feb 28 __ 67 1976 ____ 47 1903,10,2017 _ 19 1875 _____ 5 1934 _________ 1.21 1910R___ 9.0 1949 ____9.0 1949* Feb 29 __ 69 1880 ____ 47 1896, 2016 __12 1884 _____4 1884 _______ 2.26 1896R___ 1.1 1968 ____ 5.0 1884** -- - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 1st _ 2021 snow broke record of 9.8" (1934 -- which was a one-day snowfall event). 5th_6th ... probably very cold with some snow in 1855 *10th _ new record high min 45F 2023 broke 43, 1999; in 2024, 47F broke 2023. 13th _ The 2d 1899 snowfall in this data base may be recorded as a one-day 16.0" in other data bases, here it is broken down to 5.3" 12th and 10.7" 13th. 16th _ New record high min 56F 2023 prev rec 44F 2002 17th _ Also 2d totals of 9.6"(6.3+3.3) 1903 and 9.1" 17th-18th (7.1+2.0) 1893 (these may appear as one-day totals of same amounts in other data bases). Also, 17th max temp 68F 2022 replaced 67F 1976. high min 49F 2022 replaced 46F 1981, 2011. 19th_ 1908 prec record included 4.3" snow 20th _ also 2.68" (unknown amount rain and 12.5" snow) 1921. 21st _ also 68 max in 1930 ... also 2d snow 10.7" 1947 (4.2+6.5) ____________________________________________________________________________________

Has there been much mention in this thread of the Feb 1934 cold records? Today's record low max at NYC is 16F set in 1934. December 1933 had been very cold but January 1934 up until this event had been near average. Then February produced record cold averages and extremes. The strongest of these arrived on Feb 8th with a 1050 mb high over Ontario. By morning of the 9th it was -15F near the coast and -30 to -50 F further inland. I believe both Saranac Lake NY and Bancroft Ontario (150 miles west of Ottawa) had lows near -52F. Lake Ontario froze over completely that winter. Toronto had an interval of 36 hours below zero F and a low of -21F on Feb 9th, NYC was -15F. So I wondered what data there might be for New England. A second record cold spell arrived in late February but it was not that extreme, about like today's values.

If anyone from NS looks in, BOOM !!!! 40-60 cm potential, the low explodes and tracks ideally to bring S++ bands across the province. Cape Breton could see highest totals. Parts of Newfoundland could see 20-40 cm. These amounts will be wind-blown by northeast 70-110 km/hr winds. Temps near -5 C. At this late hour I still think there is some potential for the outer bands of this storm to back into parts of e MA, there has been a trend towards a deeper-digging 500 mb low over SC now, and you have to wonder if there might be a slow last-minute trend towards backbuilding this storm slightly, but wow such a waste of excellent ingredients unless you are of course in Nova Scotia (Sunday night into Monday Feb 2nd).

Here's how I would expect this to play out, first an interval of light to moderate snow mostly inland NC-SC-ne GA as the 500 mb low begins to deepen over GA, then an interval of heavy bands of snow along the Carolina coasts from roughly New Bern to Savannah, possibly two parallel bands with local snow maxima of 12-18 inches. Ongoing lighter snow further inland brings totals to about 6 inches. Southeast VA and northeast NC have more uncertainty, they could have an interval of blizzard like heavy snow, or the coastal may pull away too far south and too fast to give them more than 3-5 inches. Temperatures in the low to mid 20s during this snow, a few bands in eastern GA with slightly higher temps could see hail mixed with snow. Looks increasingly likely that some local bands of 0.5 to 1.0 inch snow could fall in n/c FL also. There are a lot of small to medium sized lakes there to enhance shower clouds, and temperatures by late Saturday will be below freezing as far south as Tampa to Space Center and low to mid 40s in s FL. Crazy man!

People could post their thoughts on eventual NYC totals here, especially if you edited the thread title to include it. Those predictions I mentioned are in the main forum, contest thread, from the dozen or so people who enter temperature forecast contests over there. I don't remember what I predicted but it was probably in the high 20s. I guess we don't need much more to reach that. The ongoing cold spell probably argues for a likely additional 10-15 inches but some analogues may have stayed snow-free despite the cold spell in prime climo period. On the other hand, it was very cold in the second half of January, 1888 and not much snow fell in February but then came the Blizzard of 1888 (March 11-13).

The record low max for NYC today is 16F set in 1934. That was followed by even colder weather in February. The max on Feb 9 was just 8F. Another record was set on the 25th of February (16F). The next coldest maxima for Jan 30 are 18F in 1908, 19F in 1977, and 20F in 1873, 2010. Tomorrow's record low max is also 16F shared by 1935 and 2019. It was likely colder in the daytime on Jan 31, 1920 but an early midnight high prevented a record, by the next midnight it was below zero setting records for both Jan 31 (-1F ) and Feb 1 (-2F). Today's record low was -1 in 1873. Since then, the coldest readings have been 8F in 1908 (and 1952), 4F in 1935 as well as 1948, and 6F in 2019. It was then 2F for a low on Jan 31, 2019. Other very cold mins for Jan 31 include 0F in 1948, 2F in 1935, 8F in 1977 as well as 1872, and 9F in 1908. The severe cold of Jan 31-Feb 1 1920 was followed a few days later by three days of heavy mixed precip that included daily precip values over an inch and snowfalls over 5" on Feb 4, 5 and 6.

Not everybody does crypto, I would be a millionaire with $100 U.S. dollars. It might violate forum rules to offer a cash prize for a contest, so I will sit that one out, we already have a bunch of NYC forecasts made before the winter (early Dec)

Another historical note: around this time in 1947 (when there was a major winter storm in Wisconsin per the daily roundup above), England was being plunged into a deep freeze that lasted six weeks and produced the coldest February on record. Constant sea effect snowfalls in addition to a few synoptic scale storms buried the Midlands in several feet of snow and stopped train and road travel. It was already a time of rationing and hardship as England recovered from the recent war, but the situation got worse because of the frigid unseasonable weather. The cold spell ended abruptly in mid-March followed by a severe flood from snow melt and rain. The Trent and Ouse Rivers draining the Midlands eastward went well over their banks. The rest of the year 1947 produced many warm weather records in England, and has more daily warm records than any other year as well as being in the top ten for cold records. The next severe winters in 1955 and 1956 were nowhere near as bad, but 1962-63 produced almost the same outcomes, as did Nov-Dec 2010 but by then the nation had better infrastructure in place to deal with heavy snowfalls and freezing temperatures.