Roger Smith

== ::: [] <<< Annual Scoring for 2025 contest year >>> [] ::: == ... ... subject to adjustments for Dec scoring updates ... ... FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS Tom _________________ 789 _832 _908__2529__822 _758 _762__2342 _4871 __815 _858 _880__2553__7424 ___ Consensus ______751 _796 _848_ 2395 __794 _858 _778_ 2430 _4825__770_868_936__2574__7399 so_whats_happening _787 _810 _796__2391__804 _858 _721__ 2383 _4774 __767 _802 _900__2469__ 7243 RJay _________________ 698 _787 _831__2316__834 _908 _776__2518 _4834 __724 _765 _853__2342__ 7176 DonSutherland1 ______ 681 _746 _822__2249__800 _838 _732__2370 _4619 __836 _792 _874__2502__ 7121 hudsonvalley21 _______683 _744 _828__2255__708 _842 _775__2325 _4580 __787 _812 _900__2499__ 7079 wxallannj _____________667 _704 _770__2141__672 _810 _800__2282 _4423 __821 _884 _929 __2624__ 7047 Scotty Lightning ______746 _812 _776__2334__653 _762 _772__2187 _4521 __716 _854 _876__2446___6967 RodneyS _____________796 _780 _858__2434__666 _598 _730__1994 _4428__756 _738_1022__2516___6944 Roger Smith __________662 _780 _806__2248__734 _630 _694__2058 _4306__563 _774 _813__2150___6456 wxdude64 ____________710 _758 _756__2224__542_ 652 _612__1706 _4030__708 _778 _938__2422___6452 ----------------- __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ 00 _ 16 _ 10 _026 _ 00 _ 60 _78^_ 138 _164_ 80^_ 80^_ 72 _232 __396 ___ Normal ____________710 _748 _744 __2202 __576 _560 _441__1577__3779 __716 _656 _844__2216__5995 -------------- StormchaserChuck ___585 _624 _662 __1871 __482 _682 _ 587__1751 _ 3622 __667 _698 _687__2052___5674 - - - (10/12) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __ 6808 BKViking (10/12) ______ 530 _569 _641 __1740 __582 _728 _546__1856 _3596 __635 _698 _699__2032__ 5628 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6753 Yoda _(4/12) ___________236 _262 _282 __ 780 __ 278 _ 258 _280 __816 _1596 __283 _298 _324 __905__2501 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __7503 maxim (2/12) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6666 Ephesians2 _ (2/12) ____ 66 _132 _142 __ 340 ___102 _ 66 _ 120 _ 288 ___628 _ 105 _194 _182 ___481 ____1109 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6654 Persistence ___________496 _602 _714 __1812 ___404 _536 _770 _1710 _3522__628 _680 _816 __2124___5646 __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 3^ __ 1 ___4 ___2^ __2^___1 ___2^___0 __ 2 ___2^__ 2___2 _Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 2*__ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1___ 0___0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 2^^ _1 ___ 2 ___0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___2^__2^^__3^^__4__ 1 ___ 2^__ 2^*__2^^__1___ 1 _Nov Don Sutherland 1 _______2 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 __ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __1^ __ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2^ __ 2^__1^___1 ___1 _Dec Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___ 1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 3^ __ 3 ___2 __ 2^ __1^ __ 3___3 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____3 _ May,Aug,Oct Roger Smith ____________2^__5^^__3^__ 3 __ 3 ___3^^__3^^__1___2 ___1^__ 3^^__0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) wxdude64 _____________ 2 __ 3^__ 1*___2___0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __1^ __ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 2^^__1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ___1 ___3^^*__0___0___0 ___ Normal ______________3 __ 2 ___1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0___0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 Mercurial _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) (wxallannj has a best forecast for IAH where Mercurial also has one awarded - regular forecaster rule) Extreme forecasts _ 64 of 108 ... 34 for warmest and 30 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6, Sep 5-1, Oct 2-3, Nov 5-1, Dec 4-3. (table scoring order is by adjusted totals for ties) (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct_Nov_Dec __ Total___adj for ties Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0_0-0_2 *-0_2-0__16-2__11.5 - 2.0 Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 _1-1 __0-0 _0-0 __ 12-3___11.0 - 3.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 ___9-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 8-1 ____6.5 - 1.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0_0-0 _2*-0_4*-0_ 7-0__ 6.5 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 _ 2*-0 _1-1 _1-0 __ 7-2 ____5.83-2.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_2*-0_ 0-0 _0-0 __6-1 ___ 5.0 - 0.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0_1*-0_3**0_0-0 __8-0 ___4.5-0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 5-3 ___ 4.0 - 3.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 0-0_1-1 _ 2-1 _0-0 __ 3-2 ___ 3.0 - 2.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __2-0 ___1.5 - 0.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _0-0 _0-0 __ 2-1 ____1.33-1.0 Mercurial ______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 _ -1.5 _ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

A relatively dry year, 39.57" plus anything that falls later today, 40th driest of 157 years at NYC, and drier than all since 1981 (25th driest 38.11") except for 2001 (11th driest 35.65"), 2012 (28th driest 38.51") and 32nd driest 1985 (38.85").

Don, where does 2025-26 sit now in your winter severity index?

Temperatures briefly moderated in southwestern Manitoba, s SK and North Dakota, generally a little above freezing today, back into the deep freeze up there tonight. The milder air is making limited inroads into nw Ontario and Winnipeg region has warmed only into the mid-20s (F).

(version 2, Dec 2025 scores _ max 60 scoring adjustments) <<< Max 60 applied to IAH, DEN, PHX scores only >>> For contest integrity, eleven regular forecasters are scored 0 to 60 with 11 intervals ... levels can be boosted by as much as 4 to reduce steps to closest approximation to raw score differentials. Mercurial, Normal, Consensus and Persistence scores are then calculated from comparison to the regular-contestant-generated scores. Scores altered by max-60 calculations have this symbol ^ ... scores without the symbol were either higher raw scores or zero scores unchanged. Most IAH scores are not boosted as raw scores were higher than the progression. This could change if IAH anomaly is higher than my projected +4.0F. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ east _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOT Mercurial ______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 30 _ 80_ 66^_ 176 _176_ 05^_ 00 _ 00 _005__ 181 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 52 _ 96_ 50 _ 198 _198_ 16^_ 46^_ 24 _086__ 284 Scotty Lightning _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 40 _ 80_ 40_ 160 _160_ 34^_ 22^_ 40 _096__ 256 ____ Normal ____________________00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 20 _ 70_ 20 _ 110 _110__ 16^_ 06^_ 30 _052__ 162 wxallannj ______________________ 20 _ 22 _ 26 _068 _ 34 _ 86_ 60^_180 _248 _ 60^_ 60^_ 80 _200__448 DonSutherland1 ________________20 _ 40 _ 40 _100 _ 86 _ 80_ 54^_220 _320 _ 54^_ 28^_ 32 _114 __ 434 BKViking _______________________24 _ 26 _ 34 _084 _ 54 _ 88_ 44 _186 _270 _ 52^_ 60^_ 60 _172 __ 442 ___ Consensus ________________26 _ 34 _ 36 _ 096 _76 _ 86_ 42 _204 _300_ 34^_ 40^_ 40 _114__414 so_whats_happening __________ 28 _ 26 _ 32 _086 _ 72 _ 86_ 44 _202 _288 _40^_ 52^_ 42 _134__ 422 Tom ____________________________38 _ 54 _ 56 _148 _ 98 _ 52 _ 30 _180 _ 328 _ 22^_ 40^_ 52 _114__ 442 RJay ___________________________ 40 _ 40 _ 40 _120 _ 80 _ 94_ 30 _204_ 324_ 34^_ 40^_ 40 _114__ 438 RodneyS _______________________ 72 _ 60 _ 46 _178 _ 86 _ 20_ 38 _144 _ 322 _ 52^_ 10^_ 40 _102__ 424 Roger Smith ____________________ 80 _ 76 _ 90_ 246_ 62_ 04_ 00 _066 _312 _ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 312 wxdude64 ______________________88 _ 62 _ 66 _ 216 _ 86 _ 20 _06 _112 _328_ 06^_ 16^_ 76 _098__ 426 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ 00 _ 16 _ 10 _026 _ 00 _ 60 _78^_ 138 _164_ 80^_ 80^_ 72 _232 __396

Another record that fell was Toronto (city) daily rainfall and precip record for December 28th. The daily precip record (28.7 mm) from the 1968 snowfall record of 11.3" was broken in 2025 by the 37.3 mm rainfall (1.47") that also broke the (relatively weak) 1863 rainfall record 0.52" (13.2 mm). Many other daily rainfall records are closer to the 2025 mark and it was not an all-time monthly record, that being 1.95" (5th 1870). The only other higher daily records were 1.81" (3rd, 1841) and 1.75" (9th also 1841), so it can be said that yesterday's rainfall was the fourth greatest daily amount in December, and largest in 155 years. It barely exceeded a fall of 1.46" on the previous date in 1942. (The 1841 events may have been over longer intervals than the calendar day, some 1841-42 data are listed as cumulative totals). Unlike U.S. climate records as available, Canadian daily climate records separate out rain and snow when various amounts fall as part of a daily precip total. Unfortunately since 2017 Toronto city has only reported daily precip and snow on ground so I now need to apply conversions myself to the data, but Toronto airport still has the full breakdown and I believe all or nearly all of the precip on the 28th was rain, some probably freezing rain at first. There had been a snowfall of about 5-6 inches on Boxing Day. The 1968 daily record snowfall added several more inches on the previous day and was around 14" in total. I recall the event from my own observing near Toronto and it was a sleety kind of snowstorm with some ice pellets in the mix. Today's record daily snowfall of 15.0" is from Dec 1855! The airport daily record is probably a lot lower because its data only begin in 1938. Today's daily record rainfall was 1.34" from 1940.

A century ago the phrase "silver thaw" was used to describe the conditions being reported in n NE today. I am not sure when that went out of the vocabulary but it was even inserted into official documents of weather data in the 1920s and earlier.

Lake effect blizzard conditions will develop rapidly across lower MI tonight and SW Ontario by morning. Heavy snow squalls with winds gusting to 55-60 mph will quickly make many highways impassable, unprepared drivers are going to be stranded in dangerous situations. I am not sure how much awareness has been created by public forecasts of these rapidly oncoming changes. Given the way the low is deepening and severe cold phasing into the circulation, and still fairly warm temps Lakes Michigan and Huron, potential for emergency situations is high. This will spread to parts of central ON, nwPA and wNY by late morning and upstate NY by afternoon-evening. Goderich to London ON needs a max alert as NW winds funnel mega-squall conditions directly across the London region. My guess is 401 will be closed or at least impassable from Chatham to Woodstock by 0900h.

Preliminary scoring for December 2025 (version 1, raw scores only) _ note for raw scores in anomalies greater than +5 or -5, error deductions are 1 pt per 0.1 error in range 5.0 to actual, and raw scores are no lower than 0.1 per correct-sign predicted 0.1 deg. When an anomaly exceeds 10.0, scores are then based on a proportional basis, for example, a +5.5 forecast against an +11.0 outcome scores 50 (raw). As another example, a forecast of +0.7 scores 07 if that is higher than the raw score would otherwise be. ... then a max-60 rule is invoked if no raw score is above 60. These max 60 scores are generally in equal increments from zero to 60, adjusted by fairness considerations when compared to the spread of raw scores. I have some objective rules that I try to apply to that adjustment but with contest results perhaps depending on exactly what the details will be (you can see DEN, PHX scores and possibly IAH will need adjustments), I will just give you the raw scores now and will be working out how adjustments affect the overall annual outcome. No idea in advance what that's going to look like (although I can't see potential for outcome to be changed by the max-60 adjustments) ... <<< Raw scores only >>> FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ east _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOT Mercurial ______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 30 _ 80 _ 60_ 170 _170_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 180 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 52 _ 96 _ 50_ 198 _198_ 04 _ 26 _ 24 _054__ 252 Scotty Lightning _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 40 _ 80 _ 40_ 160 _160_ 10 _ 10 _ 40 _060__ 220 ____ Normal ____________________00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 20 _ 70 _ 20 _ 110 _110__ 00 _ 00 _ 30 _030__ 140 wxallannj ______________________ 20 _ 22 _ 26 _068 _ 34 _ 86 _ 54 _174 _242 _ 20 _ 34 _ 80 _134__ 376 DonSutherland1 ________________20 _ 40 _ 40 _100 _ 86 _ 80 _ 52 _218 _318 _ 14 _ 12 _ 32 _058 __ 376 BKViking _______________________24 _ 26 _ 34 _084 _ 54 _ 88 _ 44 _186 _270 _ 13 _ 34 _ 60 _107 __ 377 ___ Consensus ________________26 _ 34 _ 36 _ 096 _76 _ 86 _ 42 _204 _300_ 10 _ 20 _ 40 _070__370 so_whats_happening __________ 28 _ 26 _ 32 _084 _ 72 _ 86 _ 44 _202 _286 _ 11 _ 32 _ 42 _085__ 371 Tom ____________________________38 _ 54 _ 56 _148 _ 98 _ 52 _ 30 _180 _ 328 _ 06 _ 20 _ 52 _078__ 406 RJay ___________________________ 40 _ 40 _ 40 _120 _ 80 _ 94 _ 30 _204_ 324_ 10 _ 20 _ 40 _070__ 394 RodneyS _______________________ 72 _ 60 _ 46 _178 _ 86 _ 20 _ 38 _126 _ 304 _ 13 _ 05 _ 40 _058__ 362 Roger Smith ____________________ 80 _ 76 _ 90_ 246_ 62 _ 04 _ 00 _066 _312_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 312 wxdude64 ______________________88 _ 62 _ 66 _ 216 _ 86 _ 20 _ 06 _112 _328_ 00 _ 08 _ 76 _084__ 412 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ 00 _ 16 _ 10 _026 _ 00 _ 60 _ 72_ 132 _158_ 57 _ 59 _ 72 _188 __346 EXTREME FORECASTS as of preliminary scoring ... DCA _ wxdude would win with lowest forecast NYC, BOS _ Roger Smith would win with lowest forecasts ORD _ currently just outside a win-loss outcome (4th lowest forecast high score) ... outcomes below -4.1 would make it a win-loss (RodneyS, wxdude64 win; Roger Smith loss) IAH, DEN, PHX, SEA _ definitely four wins for wxallannj with high forecasts, Mercurial also (as non-regular entrant for IAH). BKViking ties for PHX. ===================== <<< RAW SCORES for DEN and PHX will need converting to max-60, IAH possibly also but adjustments there would be very small anyway >>> Will adjust around end of month and merge with annual scoring ... given the lead Tom had before this month I cannot see how the raw-score to max-60 adjustments can remove enough of his differential to make much difference to what currently looks like Tom maintaining a 150-200 point advantage over nearest rivals. (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Mercurial ______________________ +4.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 __-0.5 _+0.5 _+2.0___ -1.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.5 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ -1.6 _+1.7 _ +1.5 ___ +0.4 _+1.8 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ -1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ______________________ -1.0 _ -1.1 __-1.3 ___ -0.7 _+0.8 _+1.7 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 DonSutherland1 ________________-1.0 _ -2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.3 _+2.5 _+1.6 ___+1.4 _+1.1 _ +0.1 BKViking _______________________-1.2 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ___ -1.7 _+0.9 _+1.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.2 _+1.5 ___ Consensus ________________ -1.3 _ -1.7 _-1.8 ___ -2.8 _+0.7 _ +1.1 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __________ -1.4 _ -1.3 _ -1.6 ___ -2.6 _+0.8 _+1.2 ___+1.1 _ +2.1 _ +0.6 Tom ____________________________-1.9 _ -2.7 _-2.8 ___ -3.9 _-0.9 _+0.5 ___+0.6 _+1.5 _+1.1 RJay ___________________________ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.0 _+1.2 _+0.5 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 RodneyS _______________________ -3.6 _-3.0 _-2.3 ___ -4.7 _-2.5 _+0.9 ___+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith ____________________-4.0 _-3.8 _-4.5 __ -5.9 _ -3.3 _ -1.5 ___-3.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.4 wxdude64 ______________________-4.4 _-3.1 _-3.3 __ -4.7 _ -2.5 _ -0.7 ___-0.9 _+0.8 _+2.3 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ +0.4 _-0.8 _-0.5 __+1.1 _+3.5 _+5.4 ___+5.7 _+3.9 _+2.1 =====================

As I was told, ORD did not stay that close to -6 F above normal but they didn't get into the real core of that crazy warmth that is now about to get the boot east ... it has played havoc with my ATL and IAH estimates and DEN has stayed well above +10 just turning cold yesterday. Think the final values now look like being around -5.0 _ -5.0 _ -5.0 __ -4.0 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 ___ +10.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 will present some preliminary scoring on that basis, going to need to figure out max-60 mercy rule scoring for the western locations.

There was no storm 14 and barring the unforeseen the above scoring table (ignore the potential scores in brackets) will be FINAL CONTEST SCORING. Congrats to Retrobuc with the highest score 97.5 closely followed by StormchaserChuck (97) and Cardinalland (96.5). Will do it all again in 2026, deus volente.

The way this is rushing in with a spike of warming to follow, I would cut most of those ice accretion forecasts in half and the real problem is likely to be ponding followed by a rapid freeze by late afternoon. It's going to be a nasty mess in many areas by late Monday.

69F at CHW and 73F at HTS in approaching warm sector. Seems likely to peak in low and possibly mid 60s around 0900 EST in MA with squall line potential around 0900-1100h. Could be a brief TRW during fropa.

Correlating 12z GFS to current obs, will estimate peak in temps at 58 F around 10 or 11 a.m., then a steady fall into 30s to 4 p.m., with occasional gusts to 40 mph. Heaviest rain will fall around 11 a.m. and noon. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm with the cold front. Temps in warm sector currently near 70 F (SDF is 74F) but I think the interaction of air mass with snow cover will fog up the mild air and the warmest portion will be experienced in s NJ where it may reach 65 F. That temperature of 74F at Louisville is a daily record, 70F in 2021 was their previous record. But they had 74F on the 27th in 2021 for yesterday's record. As I posted in storm thread, combined effects of snowmelt and 0.25" rainfall could be localized urban ponding by early Monday afternoon, and eventually any slush left on the ground will freeze Monday night, so Tuesday could be an icy mess in some places. Locations with 6" or more snow on ground will not lose all snow in the melt and what's left will become a frozen ground cover. (I am looking out on that kind of scene after past four days here brought this same sequence, our freeze-up began Friday night). Happy new year, hope the promising January pattern brings some meaningful winter weather.