Roger Smith

Just realized that the 1934 records were for Monday (Feb 9th), tomorrow is Feb 8th so the 1934 records I mentioned were set (like NYC -7F) at midnight on the way down to readings below the records quoted. For some reason I had it in my mind that tomorrow was the ninth. Anyway, I can see where it may not drop quite as low near the coast because of continued stronger winds there but I bet it gets way below zero over this fresh snow pack if skies stay clear most of the night.

Contest snow is only a Trace, as 0.1" before midnight outside the contest period. Prue11 leads on that element so far. Today's max of 27 (before 0500) may not stand after tomorrow, but we never know. Our mildest low max prediction is 24. Our mean is 19 and our lowest is 16. For the min, almost bound to be tonight the forecasts range from -1 F to +9 and the mean is +6. The record low is -7F set at midnight on the way down to the coldest of all records at NYC, -15 (1934) Feb 9th 1934. It was -50 F upstate and in rural eastern Ontario on that frigid occasion (under a strong arctic high). That day also set the low max for Feb 9th, 8F. Two earlier very cold Feb 9th's were 1899 (11, -2) and 1875 (13, 0). Since 1934, the coldest readings on Feb 9 have been 19F (lowest max 1994) and 9F (lowest min 1979). The record low max for Feb 8th is 8F in 1895, and the lowest otherwise is 21F on several occasions. The coldest min since 1934 was a -2F reading Feb 8, 1963.

65F in western ND and eastern MT today.

I would predict airports will drop to -5 to -10 F range, rural areas of eastern New England -12 to -16 and western New England -18 to -23 F. Saranac Lake NY could be close to -40. Setting records will depend on whether any given location had records in 1934 or not. An all-time record low of -52 (from memory, not entirely sure) was set at Saranac Lake or Lake Placid on Feb 9, 1934. But that was under a 1050 mb arctic high. I just looked it up and BOS has a record on 9th of -12 set in 1934. The record high of 66 was set in 1933! Providence has a record low of -9F (1934 also) but Worcester is -10 from 1963. Hartford is -13 set 1967. Both Hartford and Worcester have older record highs than 1934 so either they didn't drop as much, or were temporarily shut down. Even Central Park NYC dropped to -15, and downtown Toronto had -21 F. (note added later, these 1934 lows quoted above were actually midnight lows on the way down to colder readings the next day, I was mistakenly assuming Sunday was the 9th but it's really the 8th ... that probably explains why ORH and BDL did not have 1934 record lows for the 8th but I'll check when they show up on climate reports what all four locations set as records on the 9th).

I don't know how the Super Bowl will turn out, but the Snow Bowl score at half time is 39-0.

Binghamton NY is -3 F with NW winds gusting to 48 mph. Sustained wind is only 18 mph suggesting very squally conditions. Even at the lower wind speed wind chill there is -25 F, probably closer to -40 during stronger gusts, Expect a rapid increase in wind speeds in lower Hudson as gradient tightens, once the frontal boundary moves beyond the Berkshires.

Just 0.1" of snow reported from NYC up to midnight so the contest period didn't miss out on much with that start.

It should accelerate now which may eventually weaken it, but it's being pulled quickly into the circulation off the coast and will be advancing more like 50-75 mph from now on. It's going to be through DC and Baltimore before 0230 at the rate it is going, and beyond all southeast parts of this forum before 0330 except far southeast VA, may have lost a lot of its identity by then with just remnant flurries.

Contest closed to new entries ... table of entries repeated here ... Contest entries to 06z Saturday February 6th listed in order of coldest max to warmest max, then coldest min to warmest min within each group FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ MAX _ MIN ___ snow Roger Smith (19) __________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 0.6" RJay (18) _________________________________ 16 ___ 4 _____ 0.2" Northshorewx ( 7 ) _______________________ 16 ___ 6 _____ 0.4" CPcantmeasuresnow (12) ________________ 17 ___ 3 _____ 1.4" Tony (via RJay post) (15) _________________ 17 ___ 2 _____ 0.6" bkviking (14) _____________________________ 17 ___ 4 _____ 0.7" DonSutherland1 ( 1 ) ______________________ 17 ___ 6 _____ 0.2" TriPol ( 9 ) ________________________________ 18 ___-1 _____ 1.3" IYC77 ( 6 ) ________________________________ 18 ___ 7 _____ 0.8" dmillz25 (10) ______________________________19 ___ 5 _____ 0.7" ___ Consensus (mean of entries) ________ 19 ___ 6 _____ 0.5" Stormlover74 (11) _________________________ 19 ___ 7 _____ 0.4" coastalplainsnowman ( 2 ) ________________19 ___ 9 _____ 0.75" SACRUS ( 3 ) _____________________________20 ___ 5 _____ 0.4" [email protected] ( 4 ) ___________ 20 ___ 9 _____ -- -- snowman19 (17) __________________________ 21 ___ 2 _____ 0.5" wxallannj ( 8 ) ____________________________ 21 ___ 8 _____ 0.2" Prue11 ( 5 ) _______________________________ 21 ___ 9 _____ Tr Rwes1 (13) _______________________________ 22 ___ 8 _____ 0.1" PositiveEPOEnjoyer (16) __________________24 ___ 8 _____ 0.5" ___________________________- Contest rules are in the original post.

The upstream radar already looks fairly healthy and would support a widespread 2-4" foundation with the possible local augmented values already discussed. It appears to be a steady light snow all over upstate NY and Vermont already.

Okay, thanks, and I have added your forecast to the earlier table and updated the time stamp to 04z ... two hours are left until the contest closes. We have 19 entries so far. I will check through earlier entries to make sure nobody edited table values that I posted yesterday. Maybe we will get one or two more entries by deadline, maybe not ... good luck to all.

Moderate snow at ROC and radar imagery over w NY and L Ont suggest frontal band is activating and post-frontal squalls are driving in behind, so I would caution that parts of Long Island could see similar results off Long Island Sound by late overnight. Winds are picking up, widespread gusts to 40 mph near Lake Huron and in south central ON.

Front now going through Erie PA and Buffalo NY, still not all that windy as system begins to develop its offshore low component tonight. Will predict right on midnight for fropa at EWR-NYC-LGA, a few minutes earlier for some northern forum people and a few minutes later in parts of NJ and south shore LI. Could be a rather gradual temperature drop judging by post-frontal readings in Ontario, takes six hours after fropa there for readings to go sub-zero (F). With stronger winds it might take four hours to go sub-15 F but probably it will just stabilize at whatever value after sunrise and then drop again tomorrow afternoon/evening.

I edited it to slightly earlier time when I realized where you were asking for, the front has not yet passed Toronto but colder air is moving faster to west of Lake Ontario, going to say the front will be more of a rapid windshift and increasing wind speed feature as it rips through.

Will likely be 0100h up there and 0130-0230h EST further south.