Roger Smith

I will update that history of the contest post which is currently in Dec 2024 contest thread, and post it here around Jan 4th.

Scoring is now complete for the month and the year. Congrats to Tom for winning the annual contest, despite being closely tracked by several in the chase pack, so_whats_happening was second and RJay third, Don Sutherland fourth, then hudsonvalley21 and wxallannj close at 5th and 6th. The extreme forecast result was quite close also, my total is a bit higher than Rodney S but I also had more losses, so it's pretty close to a tied result there. Looking at best scores one can see in general that the lower portion of the regular entrants tend to go a little more to extremes and so while there are more best scores and extreme forecast results for them, there must also be quite a few busted forecasts with a net result of lower total scores. This past month, if anyone had foreseen the very large positive anomalies at DEN and PHX, and prevented max-60 scoring, they could have moved up by around 150 points but even that alone would not have quite defeated Tom's campaign, assuming it was one of the top four who did that; had I done it, I would have moved up one rank. Oddly enough the extreme western cold that I was predicting materialized over most of western Canada, Edmonton had an anomaly of about -10 F for December. But that cold remained largely in place with some occasional forays towards the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. ... the data for central U.S. locations reveals a generally very cold month with one week of extreme warmth 22nd to 28th. ORD averaged -3.5, but was +14.3 for that week. Don S pointed out in another thread that STL had their largest one-day temperature drop (or daily range) ever in December (on the 27th).

Glad to see all of you wanting to continue, will perhaps send invites to some part-time participants of recent times too. You can edit any of those forecasts up until afternoon of Jan 2nd when I start working on a table of forecasts. A lot of the scoring work for last year's contest has been done, just adjusting a few numbers as final data reports come in. ORD was -3.5 with a +14.3 week 22nd to 28th. Now that's bizarre.

== ::: [] <<< Annual Scoring for 2025 contest year >>> [] ::: == FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS Tom _________________ 801 _829 _920__2550__816 _754 _762__2332 _4882 __815 _858 _886__2559__7441 ___ Consensus ______763 _793 _860_ 2416 __804 _854 _778_ 2436 _4852__770_868_942__2580__7432 so_whats_happening _799 _807 _808__2414__814 _854 _721__ 2389 _4803 __767 _802 _906__2475__ 7278 RJay _________________ 710 _784 _843__2337__844 _904 _776__2524 _4861 __724 _765 _859__2348__ 7209 DonSutherland1 ______ 693 _743 _834__2270__810 _842 _732__2384 _4654 __836 _792 _880__2508__ 7162 hudsonvalley21 _______683 _744 _828__2255__718 _846 _775__2339 _4594 __787 _812 _906__2505__ 7099 wxallannj _____________679 _701 _782 __2162__682 _806 _800__2288 _4450 __821 _884 _935__2640__ 7090 Scotty Lightning ______746 _812 _778__2336__663 _758 _772__2193 _4529 __716 _854 _882__2452___6981 RodneyS _____________ 808 _777 _870__2455__656 _594 _730__1980 _4435__756 _738_1028__2522___6957 wxdude64 ____________722 _755 _768__2245__532_ 648 _612__1792 _4037__708 _778 _944__2430___6467 Roger Smith __________674 _777 _814__2265__724 _626 _694__2044 _4309__563 _774 _813__2150___6459 ----------------- ___ Normal ____________722 _748 _756 __2226 __586 _556 _441__1583__3809 __716 _656 _850__2222__6031 -------------- StormchaserChuck ___585 _624 _662 __1871 __482 _682 _ 587__1751 _ 3622 __667 _698 _687__2052___5674 - - - (10/12) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __ 6808 BKViking (10/12) ______ 542 _566 _653 __1761 __592 _724 _546__1862 _3623 __635 _698 _705__2038__ 5661 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6793 Yoda _(4/12) ___________236 _262 _282 __ 780 __ 278 _ 258 _280 __816 _1596 __283 _298 _324 __905__2501 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __7503 maxim (2/12) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6666 Ephesians2 _ (2/12) ____ 66 _132 _142 __ 340 ___102 _ 66 _ 120 _ 288 ___628 _ 105 _194 _182 ___481 ____1109 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __6654 Persistence ___________500 _599 _726 __1825 ___404 _540 _770 _1710 _3535__628 _680 _822 __2130___5665 __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 3^ __ 1 ___3 ___2^ __2^___1 ___2^___0 __ 2 ___2^__ 2___2 _Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 2*__ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1___ 0___0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 2^^ _1 ___ 2 ___0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___2^__2^^__3^^__4__ 1 ___ 2^__ 2^*__2^^__1___ 1 _Nov Don Sutherland 1 _______2 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 2 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1___ 1 ___0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __1^ __ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2^ __ 2^__1^___1 ___1 _Dec Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___ 1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 3^ __ 3 ___2 __ 2^ __1^ __ 3___3 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____3 _ May,Aug,Oct wxdude64 _____________ 2 __ 3^__ 1*___2___0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 __1^ __ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________2^__5^^__3^__ 3 __ 3 ___3^^__3^^__1___2 ___1^__ 3^^__0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 2^^__1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ___1 ___3^^*__0___0___0 ___ Normal _____________ 3 __ 2 ___1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 maxim __________________1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0___0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 Ephesians2 _____________0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 Mercurial _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) (wxallannj has a best forecast for IAH where Mercurial also has one awarded - regular forecaster rule) Extreme forecasts _ 65 of 108 ... 35 for warmest and 30 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6, Sep 5-1, Oct 2-3, Nov 5-1, Dec 5-3. (table scoring order is by adjusted totals for ties) (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug _Sep _Oct_Nov_Dec __ Total___adj for ties Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0_0-0_2 *-0_2-0__16-2__11.5 - 2.0 Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 _1-1 __0-0 _0-0 __ 12-3___11.0 - 3.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 ___9-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 8-1 ____6.5 - 1.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0_0-0 _2*-0_4*-0_ 7-0__ 6.5 - 0.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_2*-0_ 0-0 _1-0 __7-1 ___ 6.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 _ 2*-0 _1-1 _1-0 __ 7-2 ____5.83-2.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0_1*-0_3**0_0-0 __8-0 ___4.5-0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 5-3 ___ 4.0 - 3.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0 Ephesians2 _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 0-0_1-1 _ 2-1 _0-0 __ 3-2 ___ 3.0 - 2.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __2-0 ___1.5 - 0.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _0-0 _0-1 __ 2-2 ____1.33-2.0 Mercurial ______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0_ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 _ -1.5 _ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

A relatively dry year, 39.57" plus anything that falls later today, 40th driest of 157 years at NYC, and drier than all since 1981 (25th driest 38.11") except for 2001 (11th driest 35.65"), 2012 (28th driest 38.51") and 32nd driest 1985 (38.85").

Don, where does 2025-26 sit now in your winter severity index?

Temperatures briefly moderated in southwestern Manitoba, s SK and North Dakota, generally a little above freezing today, back into the deep freeze up there tonight. The milder air is making limited inroads into nw Ontario and Winnipeg region has warmed only into the mid-20s (F).

(version 2, Dec 2025 scores _ max 60 scoring adjustments) <<< Max 60 applied to IAH, DEN, PHX scores only >>> For contest integrity, eleven regular forecasters are scored 0 to 60 with 11 intervals ... levels can be boosted by as much as 4 to reduce steps to closest approximation to raw score differentials. Mercurial, Normal, Consensus and Persistence scores are then calculated from comparison to the regular-contestant-generated scores. Scores altered by max-60 calculations have this symbol ^ ... scores without the symbol were either higher raw scores or zero scores unchanged. Most IAH scores are not boosted as raw scores were higher than the progression. This could change if IAH anomaly is higher than my projected +4.0F. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ east _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOT wxallannj ______________________ 32 _ 19 _ 38 _089 _ 44 _ 82_ 60^_186 _275 _ 60^_ 60^_ 86 _206__481 DonSutherland1 ________________32 _ 37 _ 52 _121 _ 96 _ 84_ 54^_ 234 _355 _ 54^_ 28^_ 38 _120 __475 BKViking _______________________36 _ 23 _ 46 _105 _ 64 _ 84_ 44 _192 _297 _ 52^_ 60^_ 66 _178 __ 475 RJay ___________________________ 52 _ 37 _ 52 _141 _ 90 _ 90 _ 30 _210 _ 351_ 34^_ 40^_ 46 _120 __ 471 Tom ____________________________50 _ 51 _ 68 _169 _ 92 _ 48 _ 30 _ 170 _339 _ 22^_ 40^_ 58 _120__ 459 so_whats_happening __________ 40 _ 23 _ 44 _107 _ 82 _ 82_ 44 _208 _315 _40^_ 52^_ 48 _140 __ 455 ___ Consensus ________________38 _ 31 _ 48 _ 117 _86 _ 82_ 42 _210 _327_ 34^_ 40^_ 46 _ 120 __447 wxdude64 _____________________100 _ 59 _ 78 _ 237 _ 76 _ 16 _06 _098 _335_ 06^_ 16^_ 82 _104__ 439 RodneyS _______________________ 84 _ 57 _ 58 _199 _ 76 _ 16_ 38 _ 130 _ 329 _ 52^_ 10^_ 46 _108__ 437 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 62 _100_ 50 _212 _212_ 16^_ 46^_ 30 _092__ 304 Roger Smith ____________________92 _ 73 _ 98_ 263_ 52_ 00_ 00 _052 _315 _ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 315 Scotty Lightning _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _002 _ 50 _ 76_ 40_ 166 _168 _ 34^_ 22^_ 46 _102__ 270 Mercurial ______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 40 _ 76_ 66^_ 182 _182_ 05^_ 00 _ 06 _011__ 193 ____ Normal ____________________12 _ 00 _ 12 _ 024 _ 30 _ 66 _ 20 _ 110 _134 __ 16^_ 06^_ 36 _058__ 192 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ 04 _ 13 _ 22 _039 _ 00 _ 64 _78^_ 142 _181_ 80^_ 80^_ 78 _238 __419 (Extreme forecasts _ see previous post)

Another record that fell was Toronto (city) daily rainfall and precip record for December 28th. The daily precip record (28.7 mm) from the 1968 snowfall record of 11.3" was broken in 2025 by the 37.3 mm rainfall (1.47") that also broke the (relatively weak) 1863 rainfall record 0.52" (13.2 mm). Many other daily rainfall records are closer to the 2025 mark and it was not an all-time monthly record, that being 1.95" (5th 1870). The only other higher daily records were 1.81" (3rd, 1841) and 1.75" (9th also 1841), so it can be said that yesterday's rainfall was the fourth greatest daily amount in December, and largest in 155 years. It barely exceeded a fall of 1.46" on the previous date in 1942. (The 1841 events may have been over longer intervals than the calendar day, some 1841-42 data are listed as cumulative totals). Unlike U.S. climate records as available, Canadian daily climate records separate out rain and snow when various amounts fall as part of a daily precip total. Unfortunately since 2017 Toronto city has only reported daily precip and snow on ground so I now need to apply conversions myself to the data, but Toronto airport still has the full breakdown and I believe all or nearly all of the precip on the 28th was rain, some probably freezing rain at first. There had been a snowfall of about 5-6 inches on Boxing Day. The 1968 daily record snowfall added several more inches on the previous day and was around 14" in total. I recall the event from my own observing near Toronto and it was a sleety kind of snowstorm with some ice pellets in the mix. Today's record daily snowfall of 15.0" is from Dec 1855! The airport daily record is probably a lot lower because its data only begin in 1938. Today's daily record rainfall was 1.34" from 1940.

A century ago the phrase "silver thaw" was used to describe the conditions being reported in n NE today. I am not sure when that went out of the vocabulary but it was even inserted into official documents of weather data in the 1920s and earlier.

Lake effect blizzard conditions will develop rapidly across lower MI tonight and SW Ontario by morning. Heavy snow squalls with winds gusting to 55-60 mph will quickly make many highways impassable, unprepared drivers are going to be stranded in dangerous situations. I am not sure how much awareness has been created by public forecasts of these rapidly oncoming changes. Given the way the low is deepening and severe cold phasing into the circulation, and still fairly warm temps Lakes Michigan and Huron, potential for emergency situations is high. This will spread to parts of central ON, nwPA and wNY by late morning and upstate NY by afternoon-evening. Goderich to London ON needs a max alert as NW winds funnel mega-squall conditions directly across the London region. My guess is 401 will be closed or at least impassable from Chatham to Woodstock by 0900h.

Preliminary scoring for December 2025 (version 1, raw scores only) _ note for raw scores in anomalies greater than +5 or -5, error deductions are 1 pt per 0.1 error in range 5.0 to actual, and raw scores are no lower than 0.1 per correct-sign predicted 0.1 deg. When an anomaly exceeds 10.0, scores are then based on a proportional basis, for example, a +5.5 forecast against an +11.0 outcome scores 50 (raw). As another example, a forecast of +0.7 scores 07 if that is higher than the raw score would otherwise be. ... then a max-60 rule is invoked if no raw score is above 60. These max 60 scores are generally in equal increments from zero to 60, adjusted by fairness considerations when compared to the spread of raw scores. I have some objective rules that I try to apply to that adjustment but with contest results perhaps depending on exactly what the details will be (you can see DEN, PHX scores and possibly IAH will need adjustments), I will just give you the raw scores now and will be working out how adjustments affect the overall annual outcome. No idea in advance what that's going to look like (although I can't see potential for outcome to be changed by the max-60 adjustments) ... <<< Raw scores only >>> note: these are updated although the next post with adjusted scores is the basis for contest scoring FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS _ east _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e_ DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOT Mercurial ______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 40 _ 76 _ 60_ 176 _176_ 00 _ 00 _ 06 _006__ 182 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000 _ 62 _100 _ 50_ 212 _212_ 04 _ 18 _ 30 _052__ 264 Scotty Lightning _______________ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _002 _ 50 _ 76 _ 40_ 166 _168_ 09 _ 10 _ 46 _065__ 233 ____ Normal ____________________ 12 _ 00 _ 12 _024 _ 30 _ 66 _ 20 _ 116 _140__ 00 _ 00 _36 _036__ 176 wxallannj ______________________ 32 _ 19 _ 38 _089 _ 44 _ 82 _ 54 _178 _267 _ 18 _ 22 _ 86 _126__ 393 DonSutherland1 ________________32 _ 37 _ 52 _121 _ 96 _ 84 _ 52 _232 _353 _ 13 _ 11 _ 38 _062 __ 415 BKViking _______________________36 _ 23 _ 46 _105 _ 64 _ 84 _ 44 _192 _297 _ 12 _ 22 _ 66 _100 __ 397 ___ Consensus ________________38 _ 31 _ 48 _ 117 _ 86 _ 80 _ 42 _208 _325_ 09 _ 15 _ 46 _070__395 so_whats_happening __________ 40 _ 23 _ 44 _ 107 _ 82 _ 82 _ 44 _208 _315 _ 10 _ 21 _ 48 _079__ 371 Tom ____________________________50 _ 51 _ 68 _ 169 _ 92 _ 48 _ 30 _170 _ 339 _ 06 _ 15 _ 58 _079__ 418 RJay ___________________________ 52 _ 37 _ 52 _141 _ 90 _ 90 _ 30 _210 _ 351 _ 09 _ 15 _ 46 _070__ 421 RodneyS _______________________ 84 _ 57 _ 58 _199 _ 76 _ 16 _ 38 _130 _ 329 _ 12 _ 05 _ 46 _063__ 392 Roger Smith ____________________ 92 _ 73 _ 98_ 263_ 52 _ 00 _ 00 _052 _315_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000__ 315 wxdude64 _____________________100 _ 59 _ 78 _ 237 _ 76 _ 16 _ 06 _098 _335_ 00 _ 08 _ 72 _080__ 415 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ 04 _ 13 _ 22 _039 _ 08 _ 64 _ 72_ 144 _183_ 52 _ 54 _ 78 _184 __367 EXTREME FORECASTS DCA (-4.4) _ wxdude wins with lowest forecast of -4.4 NYC (-5.0), BOS (-4.4) _ Roger Smith wins with lowest forecasts of -3.8, -4.5 ORD (-3.5) _ was just outside a win-loss outcome (5th lowest forecast -3.3 high score) ... outcomes below -4.1 would have made it a win-loss (RodneyS, wxdude64 win; Roger Smith loss) ... one week of the month (22-28) averaged +14.3 and the rest therefore averaged -8 F. ATL (+1.7) _ win for hudsonvalley21 (+1.7), loss for DonSutherland1 (+2.5). IAH (+4.0), DEN (+11.1), PHX (+7.4), SEA (+3.0) _ four wins for wxallannj with high forecasts, Mercurial also (as non-regular entrant for IAH). BKViking ties for PHX. ===================== <<< RAW SCORES for DEN and PHX will need converting to max-60, IAH possibly also but adjustments there would be very small anyway >>> Will adjust around end of month and merge with annual scoring ... given the lead Tom had before this month I cannot see how the raw-score to max-60 adjustments can remove enough of his differential to make much difference to what currently looks like Tom maintaining a 150-200 point advantage over nearest rivals. (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Mercurial ______________________ +4.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 __-0.5 _+0.5 _+2.0___ -1.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.5 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ -1.6 _+1.7 _ +1.5 ___ +0.4 _+1.8 _-0.3 Scotty Lightning _______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ -1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ______________________ -1.0 _ -1.1 __-1.3 ___ -0.7 _+0.8 _+1.7 ___+2.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 DonSutherland1 ________________-1.0 _ -2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.3 _+2.5 _+1.6 ___+1.4 _+1.1 _ +0.1 BKViking _______________________-1.2 _ -1.3 _ -1.7 ___ -1.7 _+0.9 _+1.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.2 _+1.5 ___ Consensus ________________ -1.3 _ -1.7 _-1.8 ___ -2.8 _+0.7 _ +1.1 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 so_whats_happening __________ -1.4 _ -1.3 _ -1.6 ___ -2.6 _+0.8 _+1.2 ___+1.1 _ +2.1 _ +0.6 Tom ____________________________-1.9 _ -2.7 _-2.8 ___ -3.9 _-0.9 _+0.5 ___+0.6 _+1.5 _+1.1 RJay ___________________________ -2.0 _-2.0 _-2.0 ___ -3.0 _+1.2 _+0.5 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 RodneyS _______________________ -3.6 _-3.0 _-2.3 ___-4.7 _-2.5 _+0.9 ___+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith ____________________-4.0 _-3.8 _-4.5 __ -5.9 _ -3.3 _ -1.5 ___-3.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.4 wxdude64 ______________________-4.4 _-3.1 _-3.3 __ -4.7 _ -2.5 _ -0.7 ___-0.9 _+0.8 _+2.3 ----------------- (highest and lowest forecasts above are color coded; all forecasts are below normal for ORD) __ Persistence ___(Nov 2025)___ +0.4 _-0.8 _-0.5 __+1.1 _+3.5 _+5.4 ___+5.7 _+3.9 _+2.1 =====================

As I was told, ORD did not stay that close to -6 F above normal but they didn't get into the real core of that crazy warmth that is now about to get the boot east ... it has played havoc with my ATL and IAH estimates and DEN has stayed well above +10 just turning cold yesterday. Think the final values now look like being around -5.0 _ -5.0 _ -5.0 __ -4.0 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 ___ +10.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 will present some preliminary scoring on that basis, going to need to figure out max-60 mercy rule scoring for the western locations. The actual values for Dec 2025 (and Persistence entry for Jan 2026) are as follows ... some of these may change by 0.1 or so, as they are calculations from 30 days CF6 and 31st climate summary. By later Jan 1st I will have edited these to be actual anomalies as reported. DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -4.4 _ -5.3 _ -4.4 __ -3.5 _ +1.7 _ +4.0 ___ +11.1 _ +7.4 _ +3.2

There was no storm 14 and barring the unforeseen the above scoring table (ignore the potential scores in brackets) will be FINAL CONTEST SCORING. Congrats to Retrobuc with the highest score 97.5 closely followed by StormchaserChuck (97) and Cardinalland (96.5). Will do it all again in 2026, deus volente.