ncforecaster89

Ironically, I'm currently stuck at a hotel in Nazareth after my truck's transmission gave out late Monday night in Easton, PA, where I documented this major event. That 36.1" total looks very spurious to me. There's still over 20" on the ground, after today's melting and compaction...so I certainly believe there was 30". However, I feel pretty confident that figure that just so happens to eek out a full 3' isn't accurate. That aside, I want to congratulate all the full-time residents, here, who experienced a truly memorable event, themselves!:)

Thought I’d share a blast from the past! Just found these old photos from the Christmas snowstorm of 1989: https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1349564028289486850?s=20

After getting stuck for an hour on a secondary road and off hwy 177 in Barnes Corners, we left the Tug and have made it to Adams Center. Measured 3.8” between 5:54 and 8:35pm (roughly 2.5 hours), there.

Hi Dave and Buffalo! I’m up here with my wife and 20 month old baby girl building her first snowman (Olaf) and sledding on a hill. Was on our way back to my wife’s families house in Lancaster, Pa. when I saw the forecast and the radar. Decided to come into the Tug Hill to do the aforementioned.

Just measured exactly 2” in the past hour (5:54 to 6:52 pm) here in Barnes Corners...along with gusty winds blowing it horizontally at times.

Heavy snow falling in Barnes Corners, currently.

Verify the same here on Shippen st in Lancaster, as well! Visiting my in-laws for Christmas, and is the first time our 20 month has ever seen snow. She loves it! As does her daddy. Lol

Thanks for pointing that out. I should’ve taken a few minutes to look at the video before sharing it, but I trusted it was real. Will never understand why people do such dishonest things. After viewing it, it’s obvious it’s a loop of the same footage being run repeatedly. That aside, James captured great video on that Typhoon you mentioned.

Link just shared with me of "live" conditions in the eyewall from Nick Panico (he's not there, himself): https://www.facebook.com/ProfeciasMundiales/videos/401497981040549/

There are fifteen letters left in the Greek Alphabet after “Iota” is used. Theoretically, they would have to use up the entire Greek Alphabet, first. Since there’s no way we’re getting another 16 “named” TC’s after soon to be “Iota”, we have plenty of names available.

What really stands out about this system is that it literally made landfall at its peak extreme intensity. Truly remarkable system, and I fear for those unfortunate souls who are having to endure its wrath!

As many others have alluded to...I wish the U.S. could make a financial arrangement whereby Recon would fly into the strongest Typhoons that are genuinely threatening land like Haiyan, Meranti, and Goni.

We did actually have such an intense monster hit the Florida Keys in 1935. Just didn’t have the technology then to accurately measure its intensity. Way before AGW became all the rage and will happen again, regardless; just simply a matter of time.

I agree with the overall premise of this post, but am unaware of a time in modern records where we "went seven consecutive years without a U.S. landfalling hurricane " Suspect you meant a "major" hurricane...where the U.S. mainland experienced a remarkable twelve year drought of those.

6/15/20 (edit): 20/10/5 Decided to add an additional named storm, to my initial forecast to differentiate it from the forecast of "thunderman." Still think 19/10/5 is most probable. 19/10/5 This forecast is derived from accounting for the two preseason TS' and adding them to the average of all "cool" Neutral to La Nina ENSO season figures of 17/9/4 (1995-2019). Added one additional MH due to my expectation of a more favorable MDR.

Thanks so much for sharing the link and summarization of the paper. If it occurs during my lifetime, I will most certainly be there to document it, as well!

Agree on all accounts. Can only imagine a repeat of the GLDH of 1935 with all the buildup over the past 84 years. Not to mention, it's one of the most vulnerable areas in the U.S. for such a monster Cat 5!

Lol. I know I can be too long-winded. Need to work on being more concise.

If you're referring to me, as it appears you are...you couldn't be farther from the truth. Then again, that seems to be a regular thing with you. One thing I'm certainly not is self-centered or an attention seeker...unlike many other chasers. If anything, I'm probably too empathic and truly care about others. But, what would you know about that? I'm not the one consistently posting such immature and rude comments.

Thanks for the objectivity. Greatly respect that. Although some may not realize or appreciate it, my own personal opinion isn't rooted in the fact I was the one who shot the footage at that location in MB. It's all about Michael's intensity and effects...not anything to do with me. It's not like I've been suggesting Dorian didn't produce Cat 5 conditions in Marsh Harbour. Josh's footage, MH's position in the eyewall, and the engineering evaluation by Steer all support Cat 5 conditions occurred at MH. Thanks again for taking the time to objectively review the video, and I hope you have a great rest of the day!

And, you say my posts "have an extremely salty tone?" Btw, I sincerely apologize if my posts come off that way, as that's certainly not my intention. I have no problems sharing the video. It's a long one, for it's basically all the raw footage and isn't edited to just show the highlights. Keep in mind, the strongest winds were on the backside after the wind shift in the video. This matches well with the Recon and radar data that showed the peak winds were in the SE eyewall. It's virtually complete whiteout at the peak. There's a lot to see in the video, but for highest winds...best to view from about the 58:00:00 mark to 1:04:00 and again around the 1:06:00 mark onward to about 1:17:00, as the section in between is right before the wind shift shot from over the railing in the NE eyewall. Peak winds somewhere during that 15 minute period or so. Not simply the aforementioned data and insane conditions encountered at the western-most portion of MB, but also the damage evaluations performed by steer who showed debarking at both locations from each storm, respectively. No doubt both locations saw genuine Cat 5 conditions, and it's ok for people to disagree on the exact winds experienced in Marsh Harbour...given the lack of data compared to what was available with Michael.

Obviously, I disagree, and it's ok that you view it differently. Edit: I certainly wouldn't argue the winds were stronger at Tyndall. They weren't. Anyway, I genuinely hope you have a good rest of the night!

Please read my last post in the main Dorian thread. So excited you were able to get into the eye and core of Dorian, and the same applies to Jim Edds, as well. Very disappointed that James wasn't allowed to get to the Island, himself. Naturally, I'd also liked to have been there, but I've long ago resigned myself to the reality that I'll never be able to chase outside the U.S. (my wife will never allow it). Now, things would be completely different if I missed any Cat 3 or higher landfall in the U.S. To this day, I wish I'd been able to chase Andrew. Unfortunately, my studies were paramount at the time and I have to remind myself of that. Charley is another I regret not chasing in Florida, but work obligations made that impossible. Anyway, I eagerly look forward to documenting the next major hurricane in the U.S., as well as seeing all the footage you capture during your own chase exploits. Have a great rest of the night, Josh!

I'm posting this comment in the banter thread, as I would suspect any convo regarding chasers (more personally) would be more applicable outside the main storm specific thread. That said, I wanted to make it abundantly clear that I was (and am) genuinely excited for Josh to have intercepted the eye and core of Dorian. Unlike some, I don't get jealous of others' chasing success. Why should they? It has no relevancy on their own chase abilities. My wholly scientically objective observation that the winds don't appear to have been any higher in Marsh Harbour than those I happened to observe on the western-most portion of Mexico Beach, shouldn't be taken as somehow an attempt at minimizing the effects on Marsh Harbour. The only relevancy to Josh in such evaluation is simply an objective review of the winds he documented on video. As stated multiple times already, I feel he captured genuine Cat 5 winds on video...which is a VERY rare occurrence. It makes zero difference that I happened to be the one who documented the highest winds in Michael or that Josh happened to be the one documenting Dorian in MH. The only relevancy between the two is that each intercept location experienced the greatest impact from the two storms, respectively. Thus, my own personal interest in knowing what the peak MSW might've been at each specific locality. Given Josh is typically in the core of a major landfalling hurricane at or near ground-zero, I can understand why some might misinterpret my objective analysis of the peak winds that most likely were encountered in that area, and falsely presume I have some stupid ulterior motive or "agenda". Nothing could be further from the truth! Even when some resorted to unjustified personal attacks when I respectfully argued that all the objective scientific data clearly suggested Patricia wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall, I didn't waver on my wholly objective opinion. Subsequently, the NHC agreed with my precise 130 kt estimate. Similar instances occurred in discussion of Michael's landfall intensity. Yet again, my best educated guess (based solely on the objective scientific data) was validated in the NHC TCR. Now, some are taking exception to my objective viewpoint that Marsh Harbour didn't get anywhere close to those one-minute 10 m estimated MSWs. Unlike with Michael, we have a lot less access to all the available data, whereby making a specific best educated estimate of the MSW encountered in MH is far more problematic. That's why I've asked if anyone knows of any additional data that may be available? Regardless, I'm confident that MH saw a MSW of at least 140 kt. I don't personally consider chasing a sport, much less a competition with other chasers. In sequence of events, my initial goal is to either get into the eye or the area of strongest winds from a documentation standpoint. Secondly, record the barometric pressure at that location. Currently in the process of obtaining an anemometer to accurately record wind measurements in future intercepts. Next, to assist with search and rescue following a devastating event...followed by documentation of the aftermath. Lastly, I always have (since Katrina in 2005) and always will devote at least one full day to assisting with the cleanup. This is one thing I wish all chasers would do, and feel we all should do, considering we intentionally place ourselves in these areas of greatest impact and often times benefit from doing so. Regardless of the other ways we help, I still think it's the least we can do...but that's just me. This post is long enough. But, I just simply wanted to share my personal viewpoints on the contents contained herein to help those who might misinterpret them. Thanks for taking the time to read it. Hope all have a great rest of the day!

Thanks... greatly appreciate the kind words! And, your own appreciation for the gift of a child. Eagerly look forward to each opportunity to see our baby girl, inside the womb, via ultrasound. Given the developing El Nino, the probability of another significant winter storm in the SE, this winter, is certainly elevated. Will always choose my family over a prospective major weather event. That said, and as you articulated, there will be many more opportunities; especially since I'm willing to document them as far north as Maine. Would share local storm effects from here in Wilmington, but SENC has got that covered, and the highlights consist of a very cold, wind-driven rain.