ncforecaster89

That's definitely a borderline case as the max FLWs were 117 kt, which corresponds to 105 kt at the surface. The satellite intensity estimates were the equivalent of 115 kt...so they went with a compromise between the two. Given the continued drop of the central pressure from 936 to 934 mb following the aforementioned RECON ob, it's certainly possible...if not likely, it achieved Cat 4 right before landfall.

Listed below are a few NATL basin hurricanes whose current HURDAT2 intensity estimates merits a revision. 1) Hurricane Charley (2004): Suggest a 135 kt MAX intensity for first SW FL landfall. Based on a 148 kt 700 mb FLW measured by RECON, its rapid intensification, small contracting eye, and tiny RMW (at the time of landfall at Cayo Costa, FL)...a revised intensity of 135 kt (up from 130 kt) is most applicable. 2) Hurricane OPAL (1995): Suggest a 140 kt MAX intensity in N central GOM (1000z/4th). Based on a 152 kt 700 mb FLW measured by RECON, its rapid intensification to 916 mb, small contracting eye, and compact RMW (about 12 hours prior to landfall in the NW FL Panhandle), it's highly likely Opal achieved a peak intensity of 140 kt and category-five on the SSHWS (up from 130 kt). 3) Hurricane Marilyn (1995): Suggest a 100 kt/CAT 3 intensity for St. Thomas, USVI. It's highly likely that Marilyn was a 100 kt category-three hurricane (up from 95 kt) when it blasted St. Thomas, USVI with its NE eyewall. At the time, RECON measured 700 mb FLWs between 105-110 knots, while the hurricane was undergoing a period of rapid intensification. Moreover, the official ASOS at the airport in St. Thomas recorded two-minute sustained winds of 90 kts. Given these data, it's most probable that even stronger winds impacted the immediate shoreline at that time of Marilyn's closest approach and greatest impact (0430z/16th). References: NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for each respective hurricane shown above. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=1995&basin=atl

Thanks... greatly appreciate the kind words! And, your own appreciation for the gift of a child. Eagerly look forward to each opportunity to see our baby girl, inside the womb, via ultrasound. Given the developing El Nino, the probability of another significant winter storm in the SE, this winter, is certainly elevated. Will always choose my family over a prospective major weather event. That said, and as you articulated, there will be many more opportunities; especially since I'm willing to document them as far north as Maine. Would share local storm effects from here in Wilmington, but SENC has got that covered, and the highlights consist of a very cold, wind-driven rain.

For those who might be interested, here's the link to a list of the current record snowfall event for each individual county in NC: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/NC/3 For instance, Lenoir holds the record for Caldwell county at 17". Morganton is the record holder for Burke county with 19.3". On a personal note, I opted not to chase this event as it would cause me to miss an ultrasound appointment for my wife who's 21.5 weeks pregnant. Lastly, I'm wishing everyone luck and hope all your weenie dreams come to fruition!

Hurricane Diana of 9/11/1984 to 9/13/1984 was the reason I pursued my meteorology degree at NC State and became obsessed with hurricanes.

I just secured a hotel room in Beaufort, for Wednesday pm until Friday at noon, so I'm hoping they don't close it.

Another important consideration and hope is that it can come ashore during daylight hours.

Actually, there's still time for a very close brush...which would be the optimal solution/best case to spare the NC coast the absolute worst effects.

On the forecast track, it's most certainly possible...maybe even likely. It really depends on the actual intensity at landfall, the translational speed as it moves further inland, and its precise trek there. With Fran, it was moving at about 17 mph and deep convection from the NE quadrant moved into the city. Edit: Should add that the rate of weakening/filling is another determining factor.

Hi. I didn't forget about those areas, as I was referencing the area of highest wind gusts. Those winds were in the NE quadrant from Wrightsville beach northwards to North Topsail beach. Of course, your area saw extreme winds, as well.

This map isn't entirely accurate as the strongest wind gusts were measured at Figure Eight Island at 122 mph. That's what was actually measured. The above map only has 90 mph there. Wilmington ASOS gusted to 86 mph. Winds obviously gusted much higher on the New Hanover county beaches, but less than 90 mph according to that map? Ridiculous!

I'll take the under on that intensity forecast. The HWRF has been notorious for overestimating intensity since its inception...not to say I would rule out the prospect of Florence being able to achieve cat 5 strength at its max intensity...won't be cat 5 at landfall, naturally. High-end category four hurricane would be the more likely scenario...at peak intensity...would be my best educated guess at this point. Then again, it's not totally inconceivable that Florence may not be able to regain its former strength if the inner core continues to be disrupted and elongated. Plenty of time to observe the inevitable, regardless.

I'm enjoying reading the unique hurricane experiences so many of you have shared in this thread. This is somewhat hypocritical, as I will do my best to be in the absolute center of the eye if at all possible, but I too would recommend those who haven't truly experienced the full force of an intense hurricane to be wary of its power to change lives and the landscape where it barrels through. Edit: Despite having endured/intercepted more than 25 hurricanes, to date, I always feel genuine fear prior to each one...realizing just how destructive and deadly they can ALL be.

So happy to see/read so many of you cashed in on this event! Personally, drove 19 hours back to Plymouth yesterday morning...after being back home only 36 hours from covering the two previous storms (3/1-10/18). After napping 2 hours, awoke and dressed. At the very moment I was setting up my tripod, a big rumble of thunder (8th or 9th separate event w/ TSSN)! Consequently, just missed capturing it by mere seconds. From there, it was onto Brant Rock in Marshfield to film the surge and blizzard conditions...at the coast. Here's raw and completely unedited visual documentation of the powerful blizzard that hammered the Massachusetts coast, yesterday morning. https://youtu.be/3RqE7jk8R48