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Neblizzard

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Everything posted by Neblizzard

  1. Neblizzard
    Here’s the 6z NAM
  2. Neblizzard
    Correct. Nice front end thump that goes to rain. The ULL takes it time on this run but eventually we get into the CCB
  3. Neblizzard
    It’s heavy snow from hours 81-84 . Should be about the same precip as 12z
  4. Neblizzard
    Always ? That’s not true. We all missed your posts the last year . Glad to have you back.
  5. Neblizzard
    Less confluence Over southeastern Canada, so the primary is able to move further north. Flips to snow as the coastal takes over. 1-2 inches for the city.
  6. Neblizzard
    See you immediately think we all assume it’s a KU pattern when it clearly is not. You can snow to the coast with a perfectly timed high to the north. All the models have shown this trend today. Once the MJO reaches phase 8 , there will be a 7-14 day lag in the pattern which will set up a potential major snowfall for the end of the month. Hopefully the mods see your constant trolling posts and ban you again.
  7. Neblizzard
    You don’t need a -NAO for a modest size snowfall genius. If you have perfect timing with a high in Canada , that technically acts as your block. I learned that a long time ago in college.
  8. Neblizzard
    I remember when you were banned for 4 months last year. Too bad it wasn’t permanent. Again your analysis is horrible, the models have trended east with the ridge over Alaska ( it’s more -EPO). The confluence over Canada acts as your block. So if that is right on the models this will not be a warm solution. The MJO heading into a favorable phase 8-1 is going to take about another week before the models fully grasp onto the pattern. I think this winter will end much like last years.
  9. Neblizzard
    I really wonder if you’re snowman19 , but just under a different username.
  10. Neblizzard
    He does that every winter. Hugs every single model run.
  11. Neblizzard
    You trust the models 15 days out ? We’ll see how that pans out going forward. I always liked after New Years and beyond for this upcoming winter
  12. Neblizzard
    They do . Overall a -EPO/-AO/-NAO thru Christmas with a small break in between
  13. Neblizzard
    45”-55” inches of snow for NYC/EWR December A/N temps - 3 inches of snow January N temps- 13 inches of snow February B/N temps- 30 inches of snow with a KU storm mid-month March N temps -5 inches of snow
  14. Neblizzard
    It’s still too early to know where Florence will track , but the odds are increasing for an east coast hit. The massive WAR will give her plenty of fuel and runway. 06z GFS verbatim shows 10-12 inches of rain for the area. The next few days will be telling on the models
  15. Neblizzard
    GFS is a nightmare scenario for the mid Atlantic up thru our area. It’s trended more towards EURO.
  16. Neblizzard
    Notice the convection near Baltimore/DC is moving due east , this will all fill in and hit the metro after 8pm
  17. Neblizzard
    Yes but a very close call none the less , there's still plenty of time for the models to figure out the upper air pattern. The trend today is for a slowing moving Maria up the coast and a much weaker Jose...
  18. Neblizzard
    Hour 174 200 miles east of Norfolk moving WNW, and she's a monster
  19. Neblizzard
    That's the second solution in a row the GFS has shown a slow moving soaker for the Mid Atlantic up thru New England. Hopefully the Euro and UKMET continue to remain on board. The UKIE trended towards the EPS ensembles last night which is a great sign.
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