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Neblizzard

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Everything posted by Neblizzard

  1. Neblizzard
    Exactly. Why would anyone trust models 7-10 days out?
  2. Neblizzard
    Exactly. You don’t need a strong storm with the amount of moisture this storm will tap into. Having a massive high to the north will generate strong winds even without a very deep surface low
  3. Neblizzard
    Yes it’s much better than 6z. The high is stronger to the north and trends at H5 were a step in the right direction. I would take that run as a positive for the metro.
  4. Neblizzard
    It’s a colder solution and a shift south . Onto the GFS...
  5. Neblizzard
    The period from Christmas to New Years looks really good on the EPS. Robust PNA ridging coupled with an -AO/-NAO. Hardly La Niña like...
  6. Neblizzard
    It adds to the ferocity of a storm. Nothing like strong winds and heavy blinding snow.
  7. Neblizzard
    Canadian and GFS are 14-16 hours in duration
  8. Neblizzard
    Also notice the enhanced PNA spike, very encouraging trends
  9. Neblizzard
    My brother and I met storm field several times when we used to visit Larry Cosgrove at UPN 9. Two class acts
  10. Neblizzard
    50/50 low and -NAO are your friend so far. Hopefully that look holds. I’ve been saying getting the SV to weaken enough is our best shot at fending off this La Niña. We’ll see...
  11. Neblizzard
    Models can’t be trusted 24 hours out let alone 15 days out. It’s amazing you always post when they show an unfavorable solution for snow. The models are finally predicting warming closing in on the polar stratosphere . If the PV stretches then cold air can plunge south mid-late December into January for the east.
  12. Neblizzard
    I see you’re back in full force hoping for another blowtorch . Glad to see you posting again.
  13. Neblizzard
    Actually now that I’m looking storms are firing in western NY state. That could be our shot later on tonight
  14. Neblizzard
    Yes the warm front and best dynamics is further north than what the models were showing . Perhaps we can get some scattered convection between 6-9pm. If not the threat is done.
  15. Neblizzard
    So another bust incoming? Horrible
  16. Neblizzard
    That’s been the trend for the last day
  17. Neblizzard
    This was always was a fast mover I don’t think anyone is shocked by that
  18. Neblizzard
    How much you thinking for our area ? I’m in union county as well . 3-6 inches of rain ?
  19. Neblizzard
    Yup sun is coming out now , that was one of the concerns . Instability is rising .
  20. Neblizzard
    The 6z NAM has the low going right over NYC. Perfect track for 3-4 inch rain totals.
  21. Neblizzard
    Doesn’t matter , it’s now casting time .
  22. Neblizzard
    Since when is the NAM been God like this winter?
  23. Neblizzard
    We need that vortex south of Alaska to slow down or retrograde. If that can happen we’ll build some ridging out west. The negative NAO looks great but the pacific can do it’s damage with this set up.
  24. Neblizzard
    Yes it is the only model showing this scenario. Pay no attention to snowman19s posts. He’s like a parrot every winter.
  25. Neblizzard
    Not sure what you’re looking at. The ensembles have a robust -NAO building by day 8. Whether that happens or not is another story
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