Neblizzard
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Neblizzard replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Exactly. Why would anyone trust models 7-10 days out? -
Exactly. You don’t need a strong storm with the amount of moisture this storm will tap into. Having a massive high to the north will generate strong winds even without a very deep surface low
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Yes it’s much better than 6z. The high is stronger to the north and trends at H5 were a step in the right direction. I would take that run as a positive for the metro.
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It’s a colder solution and a shift south . Onto the GFS...
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The period from Christmas to New Years looks really good on the EPS. Robust PNA ridging coupled with an -AO/-NAO. Hardly La Niña like...
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It adds to the ferocity of a storm. Nothing like strong winds and heavy blinding snow.
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Canadian and GFS are 14-16 hours in duration
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Also notice the enhanced PNA spike, very encouraging trends
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My brother and I met storm field several times when we used to visit Larry Cosgrove at UPN 9. Two class acts
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50/50 low and -NAO are your friend so far. Hopefully that look holds. I’ve been saying getting the SV to weaken enough is our best shot at fending off this La Niña. We’ll see...
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Neblizzard replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Models can’t be trusted 24 hours out let alone 15 days out. It’s amazing you always post when they show an unfavorable solution for snow. The models are finally predicting warming closing in on the polar stratosphere . If the PV stretches then cold air can plunge south mid-late December into January for the east. -
November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Neblizzard replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
I see you’re back in full force hoping for another blowtorch . Glad to see you posting again. -
SVR potential late Wed-Thu August 26-27 NYC metro
Neblizzard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Actually now that I’m looking storms are firing in western NY state. That could be our shot later on tonight -
SVR potential late Wed-Thu August 26-27 NYC metro
Neblizzard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yes the warm front and best dynamics is further north than what the models were showing . Perhaps we can get some scattered convection between 6-9pm. If not the threat is done. -
SVR potential late Wed-Thu August 26-27 NYC metro
Neblizzard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
So another bust incoming? Horrible -
That’s been the trend for the last day
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This was always was a fast mover I don’t think anyone is shocked by that
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How much you thinking for our area ? I’m in union county as well . 3-6 inches of rain ?
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Potential few SVR/FF events parts of NYC forum Wed-Thu 7/22-23/20
Neblizzard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yup sun is coming out now , that was one of the concerns . Instability is rising . -
The 6z NAM has the low going right over NYC. Perfect track for 3-4 inch rain totals.
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Neblizzard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Doesn’t matter , it’s now casting time .- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
Neblizzard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Since when is the NAM been God like this winter?- 1,119 replies
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We need that vortex south of Alaska to slow down or retrograde. If that can happen we’ll build some ridging out west. The negative NAO looks great but the pacific can do it’s damage with this set up.
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Yes it is the only model showing this scenario. Pay no attention to snowman19s posts. He’s like a parrot every winter.
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Not sure what you’re looking at. The ensembles have a robust -NAO building by day 8. Whether that happens or not is another story