Neblizzard
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Everything posted by Neblizzard
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Good give you credit where it’s due, you did good this winter. Congrats.
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Coming from you , that’s a blessing . Enjoy your wedding
- 1,593 replies
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Agree. Let him and his fiancé enjoy their wedding instead of obsessing about warmth for once.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Neblizzard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That’s why you can’t even trust models 24 hours in. I’ve learned my lesson- 3,610 replies
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The pattern is nothing like a La Niña . The subtropical jet is strong and the northern branch is way up in Canada . This is a classic strong El Niño close to 97-98
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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
Neblizzard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Calling bust already ?- 489 replies
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Watch what you say on here this year. Lot of sensitive warminstas. Watch what you post on here . They’ll say it’s over before it’s even begun.
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It’s not I must admit. Come back next winter.
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Prediction of the first snowfall for the NYC area.
Neblizzard replied to MJO812's topic in New York City Metro
January 4th -
We may have to wait until late December for better El Niño forcing and favorable MJO progression
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Areas west of I-95 are the question mark
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- heavy rain
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Here in Union County NJ, we dodged the bullet. I’ve been flooded out from Irene and IDA came darn close. This would have been catastrophic for my area had this been 25 miles west.
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The 12z NAM focuses the heaviest rain from NYC up thru Northern NJ and the Hudson Valley.
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- heavy rain
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Amounts ranging from 1-5 inches across the metro. Indeed his call was the best …
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If this trend continues the NYC metro will have to worry about severe weather
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It’s more west than yesterday
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You have the maps?
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If verified that’s a Bob redux
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Most Mets and others have agreed this would be a fish storm. I don’t see any hype about an east coast strike
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The models can’t even get a pattern right within 3-5 days , do you buy everything they say when they show a breakdown ?
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He never does. The La Niña has basically peaked and is becoming more east based. That could lead to a stronger MJO down the road . Just what you want to see…
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85-86 is an example