RIC_WX

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Everything posted by RIC_WX

  1. I don't remember much help in the atlantic side that winter - it was a unusual pac driven winter. As you recall, nearly all of the LR forecasts (including CWG) called for a mild winter that year. It was a rare example of things going the opposite of all the consensus thinking which, like today, had us mostly convinced winter is over before it ever gets started.
  2. The difference is entirely in the NAO. In 95/96, we had alternating periods of cold/snow and otherwise mild and sunny wx, it was the winter that had something for everyone. I believe it's remembered as cold because winter showed up early and hung around into April in addition to all the snow - but in the means it wasn't really cold, and plenty of very mild days. The blocking slowed the overall pattern progression enough to extend the cold intrusions and pull the storm track into the ideal location for us repeatedly - shift the SE ridge 500 miles southeast and watch what happens. Hard to argue we are seeing a much different setup this year, but absent any sustained blocking the cold is in and out in 36 hours, the SE ridge is back over our heads instead of off the coast, the storm track is west of the mountains. Unless you can explain what will break the persistence of the past several winters to deliver more than transient periods of bootleg blocking we are getting a very similar pattern we would have seen in 95/96 if the block hadn't been present.
  3. Has anyone noticed the temp obs from JYO are massively off the past few weeks? Right now they are reporting 59*...I am 2 miles away and read 69* in the shade and 70* in the sun. These sorts of variances have been common of late.
  4. Yes, but forecasting Garrett is gotta be a whole nother world compared to the rest of their CWA during winter especially. I hope they are up for it. And it's not like LWX has all of MD after the change, AKQ has all of the lower eastern shore.
  5. Breaking news...Deep Creek and Garrett Co to join LWX? Haven't seen this posted before elsewhere. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettCecilTransfer
  6. Alternating bouts of snow and cold, followed by interludes of sunshine and 70*F temps...almost reminds me of a certain storied winter around these parts, one which our younger contributors might not have been around to witness first hand.
  7. +0.2F here at 5AM. Frustrating to get so close and not drop below zero, but coldest of the season and colder than any low from past 2 years. For whatever reason, Loudoun never has radiated as well as points further south along the piedmont.
  8. JYO and my PWS concur with a 90* reading...
  9. Read through that article and roll forward the analogs - both for the cold summertime lows and warm May-July period. Ugh. Nothing in there inspires confidence here.
  10. Just passed 2". Death band overhead.
  11. Checking in. It's been raining nonstop since about 11A, picked up about .5" in that time with occasional moderate downpours. Closing in on 1.5" for the event, maybe a little more. Side note: This kind of over performance almost never, ever happens here. Except maybe this time of year.
  12. I want to yak every time I fly on a CR2 in clear wx. That said, lots of buzz on the AV forums about IAD in ground stop until 1PM, landings on RWY 30, tower evacuated...all things that generally don't ever happen. DCA is also reportedly landing on RWY 33, which is extremely rare. AA and DL have all but ceased attempts to operate there.
  13. Roads around Leesburg crazy slippery, frozen slush is no joke. Got rear ended at traffic light, came home and slid back down inclined driveway 2x with brake on and trans parked. That is a slick road.
  14. JYO been running warm this whole cold period if you ask me. Usually we run close but lately I have consistently been 3*-5*F colder on my PWS - which is typically quite accurate with any wind at all (it will run warm in full sun and calm air). 27.5* / 8 maybe 2 miles north of JYO. Up from 16 / 4 at 4AM
  15. If it wasn't for all the exuberance surrounding our fancy LR NWP schemes, these sunny blue skies...mild afternoons and seasonably chilly mornings would be reminding me much more of January 2002 then December 1989 or 2005.
  16. January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX. Most likely, one of those will be wrong. But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.
  17. .92" today (still raining, but tapering off) 1.82" in November 4.18" in October 41" and counting YTD Yes it was bone dry for 2 five week periods roughly overlapping June and September, but otherwise on pace for an average to slightly wetter than usual year. The summer was, by far, the wettest I have seen in 8 examples since moving here in 2010.
  18. 2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January. Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same. Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.
  19. 1984-5 and 2005-6 are the analogs mentioned, but the subjective forecast clearly supports the 1984-5 analog in terms of pattern progression.
  20. IAD +0 for the month heading into today, the last day of the solid heatwave. September really turned out to be the inverse of what one might ordinarily expect, more like June. I suspect the month finishes essentially normal in the means, which this month was anything but. Also interesting how June and September were acutely dry for most of the region, in such contrast to July and August. Strange days indeed.
  21. I definitely see some recent similarities to the 1994-95 winter patter locally and the active, long track tropical season of 1995. That said, I also feel like stating that places an emphasis on what I might prefer to see and ignores almost every potentially dissimilar data point, and surely they all matter. I think 95/96 is remembered fondly not just for the frequent and intense bouts of cold and snow, but the fact that when it wasn't cold/snow it was usually sunny and 65*F. That winter truly had something for everyone. And it was basically non stop from November 1 right into April.
  22. Dulles was a staggering -8 or so departure for the first 12 days of September, and increasingly looks like a lock to finish the month in the + departure category. LR progs for early October are all over the place run to run.
  23. ...fast forward 8 days and still looks like endless summer into early October. Good thing this pattern held off until mid September, if it had set up in August would be sweat city.