RIC_WX

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Everything posted by RIC_WX

  1. Good thing they closed the schools for near record cold temperatures. sigh.
  2. When it's showing up on multiple models its a concern. But it does appear like a precip max is appearing over the bay vs. points 50 mi or so west.
  3. Regardless of what the model physics spit out, conventional wisdom says for BNA to receive heavy snow and RIC not from the same system is pretty unusual. That is enough to convince me this solution is wrong, irrespective of what right becomes.
  4. NWSFO AKQ in the bullseye T-5 days always verifies...said no one ever.
  5. Leesburg hit 49* for all of about 5 minutes and was back into the 30's after sunset. One of the craziest gradient days here in a long time.
  6. Tonight's forecasted low for JYO is 42. We are currently 37. Interesting how the clouds maintained all day to keep a lid on the temps here, then cleared out at sunset in time for temps to drop. Bet we are colder than 48 tomorrow too.
  7. 48 / 29 in Leesburg. Was 43F 2 hours ago. Richmond is 71F. These sorts of contrasts seem really common to me, but getting started a little early this year.
  8. So, eventually (next year?) the elusive -NAO will reappear. But, this is no guarantee there is any meaningful cold air around. 2009-10 was pretty average, temperature wise overall. As some were skeptical (in hindsight, rightly so) about DC experiencing 2 back to back +SN winters during the previous pre-season, it now looks as if next year we could be looking for a 3rd consecutive BN winter temperature wise. Or, at least a 3rd consecutive season that is not materially AN temperature wise (anticipating the DCA crew to descend and point out BN for DCA is far from a seasonal lock this year). Pretty sure you can still get 33 and rain with a -NAO in DC and the surrounding areas. I am equally skeptical on our chances to pull off a 3rd consecutive "nice" summer, temperature wise.
  9. Pretty subjective to where you were I guess. Jan 25 is hard to beat for those of us in the epicenter of its sudden unforecasted wrath. Honorable mention to January 96.
  10. RIC_WX

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    It's depicted by that map almost to the mile, isn't it.
  11. RIC_WX

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    IIRC didn't the Euro have some fairly extreme subzero predictions last winter that did not verify? Still, makes sense that favored spots could drop below zero with snowpack and calm winds behind the storm
  12. RIC_WX

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    I am pretty sure the NAO was solidly negative around the time of the storm, unlike anything we've seen this season.
  13. RIC_WX

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    As the snow was falling the modeling had the QPF bulls eye for that event on the VA/NC border. Ground truth by sunset was 60 miles North of that.
  14. RIC_WX

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    C VA in the bullseye 72 hours out? Just stop and listen to yourselves people. Forget what the model says.
  15. 25.7 / 24 and SN in Leesburg. Let's keep it going.
  16. You had to be feeling similarly on 1.30.2010 if you are being honest. And, unbeknownst at the time.....
  17. I used to think the "B" in Miller B stood for "bust" as far as VA is concerned. They almost never deliver here, even for the northern reaches of the DMV. The evolution of this storm reminds me plenty of 12.30.2000, although I was never invested in this one as much. But the memory of that storm, in the era before these forums really existed, is probably why it was hard to buy the modeled depictions from the past 48 hours as they never ever seem to work out in practice.
  18. I went to Richmond today and it was 55 and mostly sunny. Nearly got my truck stuck in mud, so the ground is decidedly not frozen but is soaking wet. Noting it was a solid 50F this afternoon as far north as Occoquan along 95. Back home in Leesburg now 44/33.
  19. Wet snow, 33/31. Accumulating everywhere but street.
  20. You were too quick to uncancel winter on your Facebook page. Think of your followers next time.
  21. Reminds me of the day before Thanksgiving storm from earlier this season. Snow, but with ratios of like 4:1
  22. IIRC, the NAM was dubious with the coastal low last February too, many different solutions none correct.
  23. Seems unusual to have clipper snow so "wet". Obviously, it's warm...but odd to have a clipper deliver the goods on snowfall minus any materially cold air. We have definitely maximized climo here I think. I am guessing 2"-3" inches but temps are warm and there has to be significant compaction and melting. Easily 3 hours of moderate and at times heavy snowfall.
  24. This would be so much more consequential had it begun 6-12 hours earlier. If the next storm(s) in the parade deliver, the schools are going to wish they had this day back.