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Everything posted by RIC_WX

  1. I'll take the bait on this one. I really think the sample size here is small, and the timing of any eventual pattern change is the key, as earlier is obviously better if you are looking to exceed averages anywhere - as more chances one of the frequent southern stream s/w turns the corner when cold air is close by. The only analog that seems to really support his argument is 72-73, he conveniently tosses 82-83 despite having the best overall resemblance to this year so far and makes no real mention of 97-98 where I don't think really anywhere in the eastern coastal plain really saw much snow, north or south. Because the SE US averages so little snow, one moderate event can easily get a bunch of southern places to seasonal average or above. Not the case at all once you get north of Richmond - it takes a 12"+ or much greater to do that. But, there are plenty of Nino's super and not so exceptional that feature decent one hit wonder snowfalls in the Carolinas, if that is supposed to be the point. And non Nino seasons that underperform in DC but not necessarily in points south, for that matter. Wasn't there a thread recently that indicated RIC outperformed DCA in roughly 1 out of 4 seasons? This isn't limited to super Nino's. If the ultimate pattern change was delayed until late February or March and we end up cold and suppressed in the MA while the SE cashes in that is another scenario altogether. But this seems like an even rarer thread the needle scenario than what happened in 82-83.
  2. I was on the Pennsylvania Turnpike this evening, locally dense fog was as bad as I can recollect on that road, the way it is settling in the mountain hollows incredibly dense and over the course of a few miles would drive from visibility less than 1/4 mile to 100% clear to less than 1/4 mile again. I presume this is due to the inversions, surface temps were mostly near 50*F.
  3. So, when December is Frigid, we fear the January pattern reversal a la 1989-90 and 2005-06. But, no such talk the other way around when we are setting records for warmth? In the 2005 example which wasn't that long ago all of the modeling was in near unanimous agreement we would stay well below normal until the last week of the month when the pattern abruptly flipped and we stayed mild from that point basically through the heart of winter. I get the feeling this year will be the same in the reverse, with the obvious question being does any flip happen by new year or so much later it becomes mostly irrelevant.
  4. I guess the point is we've been far warmer relative to normal under supposedly far less hostile longwave patterns. And it hasn't been all that wet either, I can certainly remember 97-98 and this does not seem to compare. It's just hard to have a 2001-02 level of despair over a week or two of warm wx, when we had the same thing in other El Nino Decembers as recently as 02-03.
  5. I appreciate the longwave pattern is really, really bad across NA and especially eastern NA. And I also appreciate the next 7 days look substantially warmer than the past 7 days based on every forecast everywhere. But, speaking for IAD, the cumulative departure the past 7 days is +1.6 and we've been below freezing on 6 out of 7 days. Here in Leesburg I think yesterday's high was a drizzly wet 43*. Today is the first day in a while that has seemed unseasonably mild at least to me. Based on all the despair, I would have expected to be in shorts and flip flops unimpeded for the past 3 weeks. But, outside of a few notably warm days after Thanksgiving, we've been basically near climo in terms of occurrent wx. Not disputing there is some sustained and real unseasonable warmth on the way, but given all the LR progs from 3 weeks ago it's amazing to me we have not been a whole lot warmer here already.
  6. I'll attempt to translate December: Warm January: Normal, unless the pattern change is delayed, in that case warm February: Cold and Snowy, unless that pattern change is delayed, in that case warm March: Cold and Snowy everywhere north of Interstate 64, spring to the south
  7. Funny, I was looking at the map above and the cold in Japan and remembered the old JBism that 10 days or so after it snows in Tokyo the same will happen in the mid atlantic, even if it's just transient. You would think it could snow for NRT in that prog.
  8. Maybe the Euro is sniffing this pattern out a few days early, certainly would not be the first time. By the way, a cold start to December with a snow threat mixed in followed by a 10 day warm up would telegraph 2002 rather nicely...that is in case anyone is forgetting. The test there would be are we back in the icebox in time for the holidays?
  9. Reading this in its entirety was like a flashback to old school Larry Cosgrove discussions. Except curiously, all references to current weather conditions in the Sonoran Desert and how they would effect the sensible weather here were omitted in their entirety. Someone should really clue Cohen in on this.
  10. 1997-98 seems to be the Super Nino analog to fear. So the fact this November is going to be incomparable seems pretty good. I still think we take our chances this year, as if next year is neutral or nina we'll be rolling much smaller dice regardless of what the CFS says in November.
  11. 1877-78 as an analog? Is that correct or did you mean 100 years later? Thanks as ever for the informative read and the time and effort you put into this. Maybe this is finally the year I buy a snowblower and not feel guilty if it rains all year as a consequence. I can blame elnino.
  12. This forum is one of a kind. Last November slips into an icebox and everyone is pissed it didn't happen a month later. This November starts off torch and we fear it's a death omen for DJF. Can't have it both ways now can we?
  13. 1.95" today, but 50% in the last 2 hours. Seems to be alternating from brief periods of heavy rain to lengthy periods of drought for what seems like going back to Spring.
  14. 3.57" with 2.54" of that falling between 8 and 9 PM. Just got the flash flood emergency warning via smartphone. Rain like you mean it.
  15. 2.07" with 1.03" of that falling in the past :25 minutes. Absolutely pouring.
  16. You will radiate better at night...colder low temperatures pretty much year round. Always amazed me how lousy this place radiates compared to areas far SW. And it might rain in the summertime too, so theres that going for ya.
  17. If we got the Cadillac early this morning, we're catching the steak knives right about now.
  18. Finally, 1.03" overnight and looking for more. Not sure if this is enough to wake the grass from summer dormancy however.
  19. Hopefully, your timing will be as lousy as mine moving in here in May of 2010. There were still some lonely melting snow piles when we signed on the house in early April.
  20. I for one have commented about IAD 1981-2010 normals being high, and they are compared to previously used 1961-90 or 1971-00 averages. This does not mean they are wrong, per se, it just means that it may be easier for temps to appear closer to normal or even below normal because the baseline for normal has increased enough over the past couple decades. A simpler way of explaining this is the current 30 year period of record is established with a set of normals which are likely the warmest in the recorded history of the station. These "new normals" seemed reasonable from Summer 2011-Winter 2012-13, but outside of that atypically mild period it has been difficult to sustain much of a materially + anomaly at IAD this decade. Which is what I think many initially suspected would occur after comparing the current data sets vs. prior averages.
  21. The storm was intense, woke me up from a dead sleep. PWS says .15", but I assume it didn't catch the sideways rain. Easily the most intense nocturnal storm in many years, even our community FB page is lit up this morning...mostly with superficial reports due to wind.
  22. Below is mine for comparison. I have the same deck issue as you, but as you can see mine is situated higher, and personally I don't see it as a factor on temperature accuracy. I am also pretty confident in my precipitation data. Not sure where I could put it on my property where it would be any more accurate beyond the roof, and Davis does not recommend this for all sorts of reasons. I do not get anything close to accurate wind data, not sure how I could as I am surrounded by structures in all directions. It's not even close. I think you probably get accurate wind, at least from the direction off the lake. Don't see how your precip data would be reliable surrounded by all of the trees. And the inlet there probably gives you a microclimate that the PWS is sensing accurately, even if you don't think the lows are matching surrounding stations.
  23. A quick 0.56" here in about 20 minutes. Nice to finally get under one of those for awhile, been entirely feast or famine in the rain department since Spring.
  24. I think if you look at YTD precipitation vs. average across the stations, you will see a similar distribution again favoring DCA as well. IIRC, the 1981-10 temperature averages took "normals" up quite a bit at IAD, and it was remarked early on that the + departures were going to be harder to come by for the next decade. The summers of 11/12 seemed to make mincemeat of that prediction, but for the last 3 years or so it seems more likely to be the case.
  25. .65", decent winds, lightning and close to 10 minutes of hail. Areas to my SE will do better as per usual it seems. 5.4" for the month, nice reversal from May. Looks like more to come. Only hit 94 on the PWS, but see JYO put up a 97* ob. Must have been for a few minutes when the sun fully came out. Could have been so much hotter today with less high cloud cover.