RIC_WX

Haven't most of the forecasted heat waves this season failed to deliver? What makes this one different?

I’ve discovered much the same - winter was definitely my attraction to Deep Creek but the summers were an incredible surprise. We were able to stay 2 full weeks in July and slept with the windows open all but a couple of nights. If it wasn’t for a few hours in the late afternoon sun we could probably get by without AC at all. Wish I could have been there today.

73/56 at Deep Creek. 10/10 for late July. Back to sweating in Leesburg tomorrow.

.96 at my place. Watching the scraps approach now in Leesburg, mountains definitely let the air out of this balloon. Right at 2” since Monday. Farmers will be thrilled, they were way behind coming into the week.

Closing in on .50” at Deep Creek with heavier returns moving in. Nice gentle soaking rainfall.

10/10 today at Deep Creek, a little chilly in the shade but almost perfect. Too bad the outlook for the weekend isn’t quite as nice.

Temperature graph for Deep Creek today. Yes, the spike was that sudden, went from maybe 1/4 mile visibility to partly cloudy in 10 minutes or so.

I don’t have one. Hopefully my wood stove drafting from the basement is burning it all up. If not, the CO it produces assures I usually don’t care. We finished our interior ourselves hence if you need a tool or something, I probably have it.

30 / 29 and freezing fog at Deep Creek. I managed to catch most of the good wx weekends this year, until now.

Many of the shutout years in the data set are followed by climo or climo+ seasons. I guess there are exceptions to everything but at this point I would think we are better off without any attempt at recovering this year. It does seem like the shutout years are at least as common as the blockbuster years and we’re clearly overdue for a good one.

I mean, I am on pace to burn 2 full cords of firewood and most days nobody is even there. Biggest problem is keeping it dry. Last 12" snowfall for Deep Creek? last weekend of March 2022. Warm winters end cold and no reason to think '23 is ending any differently.

Shhhh no one needs to know even if the snowfall has been meh-tastic, winter overall has been ok at deep creek so far and would actually be remembered pretty fondly if the pattern eventually flips to a favorable finish for all. I realize this is blasphemy but...

It was the second coldest day of my life and unquestionably the most intense wx conditions I have seen at Deep Creek by a factor of 2-3x. Genuinely wish more of the folks here got to see it, it was like spending the day at the North Pole.

This is pretty close to what the models were splitting out for Garrett yesterday for this time. Ignore the wind readings as anemometer is broken. Legit upslope here, winter doesn’t get much deeper than this.

Now 21*. My anemometer is frozen but I would speculate there have been gusts well over into the 40’s. Hard to keep the smoke going up the chimney.

Blizzard conditions developing at Deep Creek. 26* and falling rapidly.

It will be a bona fide glacier tomorrow. Lake should be rather solid by early week as well, big change from the holidays last year.

Forecast for Deep Creek shows temperature of 37* at 4AM tomorrow, descending to -6* by 12 or 1PM, and remaining largely steady until sometime Saturday morning.

Easily a fresh 2” in Swanton but the occasional pillow sized snowflakes suggest a warm layer somewhere close by. 26/25 on the temps, beautiful morning.

Feels like deep winter this morning

She's a soaker in Leesburg. 1.56" and backbuilding. 35* Looks more white than wet in Swanton, probably all frozen from this point forward and going to stick around awhile. 30*

39/23 Leesburg 30/16 DCL Swanton Hoping they keep power at the lake but not super optimstic. I turn the water off when I am not there but wasn't really prepared to have pipes freeze if the outage is extended.

Please correct if wrong, but from a purely climo POV high impact all ZR events at DCL are more rare than locations where CAD is climatologically favored. Meaning, 9/10 times I see ZR in the zones for Garrett, it turns out to be PL/SN or nothing at all. Noting these things seem to occur as a seasonal trend, and pointing out there was 24 hours of ZR / freezing fog at DCL just this past weekend (forecast verified), and it was anything but a high impact event there (WWA maybe didn't entirely verify). That said, it did get me wondering about all those depictions of mid level warm air being more than just a modeling anamoly vs. maybe a hint of a sesonal trend (hoping not).

It was 1989 for sure