RIC_WX

Thanks for sharing and good luck with your outlook. I am perplexed somewhat with the 2002 primary analog given the precipitation patterns from that era vs. today with respect to occurant weather. Also noteworthy on the mild December call as it seems to be at odds with the early consensus forecasts. I suspect you are counting on late season snowfall, potentially even in March to achieve these totals? A +1 December isn’t getting it done and a cold January would be suppressed it would seem.

Our sources say no.

There is a lot less summertime haze / air pollution now than I remember from this era, which is presumably thanks to emission controls of all kinds but predominately from less coal burning for electricity generation.

2.67" overnight in Leesburg, rained hard enough overnight to wake me up. Wet 24 hours for me, ended up with 1.25" at Deep Creek yesterday before heading out.

1” and counting at DCL. Western highlands cashing in today, unfortunately a total wipe out for outdoor Labor Day activities.

Siting of your chimney will be super important. We had to raise ours and install a purpose built wind resistant cap after the first storm filled my cabin with smoke - it blew furiously back down the chimney - to the point I aborted the fire and threw flaming logs out the door into the snow. It turned out ok in the end, but a learning experience and somewhat shocking how little the supposed experts (my chimney was professionally installed by the only outlet here I could find to do it) know about solving this problem. I fully recognize most of us are up here for the snow and cold but the wind is what comes with it and it has been our nemesis on several fronts. I have to believe your location is as least as exposed as I am.

Looks like you are in an awesome spot. First time you spend a night up there in a winter storm, the wind is gonna knock your socks off. I hope you are a sound sleeper.

My PWS every so briefly touched 90* for the first time and then quickly reset to something a bit more typical

Up at Deep Creek. Winds steady in the 20’s gusting to near 40. With full leaf out, this is an under rated event here. 78/64

They made a post on FB yesterday that the section of trail between Leesburg and Ivermere Dr had 50 fallen trees and took 24 hours to fully reopen the trail after Thursdays storms. Supposedly some of the worst damage ever recorded.

Leesburg Hail video https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PEvmZFehkKA

Mine are Midea units (branded Pioneer). Best available for the buck assuming you can install them (these are functionally the same as the heralded "Mr. Cool" models but do NOT utilize the DIY friendly precharged lineset and require traditional evacuation on install). Midea, Mitsubishi, Fujitsu, Daikin make the majority of the worlds supply under literally hundreds of brand names. The Midea factory in China is reported (believed) to be the largest production facility of it's type in the world. The Goodman / Daikin combined production facility in Houston, TX is still the largest in NA. I have a 24K unit that is rated to +5F and a 9K unit that is "hyperheat" and rated to -13*F. Basically, the HH units have an enhanced defrost system to deal with the icing. The unit I am installing in my loft is a 2 head 18K unit (so 9K BTU per head) and pretty sure this one is rated to -13F / 22 SEER cooling. If it is under 40*F at the cabin, and if I am around, I am burning cordwood exclusively. The mini-splits are a desirable heating option between 32*-60*F, with a COP of approximately 5 above 50*F. I also have electric baseboard but mostly installed this to satisfy permit requirements (avoiding manual J requirements with the mini-splits, which wasn't possible with unfinished construction) and use this near exclusively to maintain 50*F temperatures when the cabin is unoccupied.

As someone who works in this industry, this makes me cringe just a little. It’s not that it can’t happen, it’s just so often not true in our notoriously humid climate. People also sometimes confuse the COP with heat production (conveniently) and disregard that even though they get heat in single digit temperatures, the real world efficiency at this point is little different than electric baseboard. Meaning, 90% of rated capacity is not the same as 90% of rated efficiency at extremely cold temperatures, even in the most optimal conditions. I have 2 inverter mini splits installed at Deep Creek and getting ready to install a 3rd as I finish my loft. They are indeed fantastic for cooling. But heating is virtually worthless once you get into the +20’s as the slightest bit of snow freezes up the coil and all your energy goes into constant defrost mode.

Yesterday was sneaky nice at DCL. Had to open the windows on arrival to get some warm air in though. The firewood is officially kicked off the front porch and replaced with the patio furniture.

Massive improvement. But GFS has wavered on this period for days, most of the guidance has not been nearly this progressive so will need at least 24 hours of consistency here before I am sold.

GFS trying to replay the May 5-6-7 scenario with a low cutting off and spinning for days over the mid atlantic coast. I hope this is wrong but it's been a popular solution this month. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022052006&fh=228

The Potomac Highands have been waterboarded all day. Be patient east enders, your turn is coming soon.

Maybe someday climate change will be researched without political bias or foregone conclusions

More snow for Garrett County this April than this past December, and it really isn't even close. I can only hope Memorial Day weekend eclipses last years 43*F. Seasons really have become misaligned from what they used to be.

We attended the caps game at PPG Saturday. Holy wow you should have seen that arena clear when the caps got that first open net goal. I thought Pittsburgh sports fans were tough.

Snow showers all morning at Deep Creek. April is the new December here.

At my kid’s soccer game in stephens city. Sure enough it actually doesn’t rain here. Who knew?

Regionally speaking as opposed to IMBY October, December, February and March were all above normal (or well above normal) temps. November and January were below normal. This is against the revised backdrop of the 1991-2020 temperature norms which are already elevated. Objectively the story of the past 6 months has been consistently above normal temps with occasional outbreaks of severe cold / wind. Of curious note, the western Potomac highlands pulled off the elusive AN snowfall / AN temperature March. Pittsburgh was +3 and had the most March snowfall since 1993.

Snowing at the lake and the ground is turning white

The 5-10” predicted by LWX has verified. As I missed MLK, pretty sure this is actually my best event to date for my first winter up here. Go figure. Beautiful this morning