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Everything posted by RIC_WX

  1. Daily max of 96.6 on the PWS. Currently 94.7 / 73. HI all afternoon >= 105* as PWS has been flashing warning, although I don't believe there was ever an official advisory for Loudoun. JYO is at 105 HI, 95/73 basically the same as me. And quite the southwesterly breeze, but no sign of any convective relief. Definitely the max for the year IIRC.
  2. My 7th summer now in Loudoun (time flies) and continue to be amazed by the rain shield over this place in the summertime. Seems it can precipitate in any direction except from the North or Northwest, which fails almost every time. And yet, the storms explode to the east. Every. Single. Time.
  3. RIC_WX

    June Banter

    Retweet http://www.richmond.com/news/local/hanover/article_de60a1cd-7279-589f-815a-504ef2ad547e.html
  4. Is it still a mild winter if my 3' of snowcover melts and reveals lush green grass underneath? As if it was frozen at the peak of freshness or something.
  5. Get the governor off Fox 5 and on whatever it takes to get fuel supplies replenished at VDOT. No excuses for this, what was the state of emergency for?
  6. Reading the model thread reminds me of the Acura commercial where every day is Christmas. Only it seems to be repeating every 6 vs. 24 hours.
  7. The roof collapse concerns seem overdone to me, but potentially going several days without power and sub freezing temperatures is pretty insufferable to imagine. And beginning to seem inevitable for some. I would not discount the potential impacts here.
  8. I hope it comes in a heavy front end thump so you aren't sweating any dry slots on Saturday.
  9. Fascinating. Hope you get in on the northern spoils here Don.
  10. I felt that way after reaching for a towel to dry off the dripping wet GFS
  11. If those numbers are correct, would there be a freezing fog before sunrise? Or is the cold surface layer not shallow enough?
  12. I know we have been pretty focused on where the heaviest banding and accumulations set up amongst other things, but beginning to wonder if the winds is what this storm is really going to be remembered for. True blizzard conditions here are almost unheard of except for short periods of time. It's one thing to be in the warm posting jubilation on amwx and another shivering in the cold and dark trapped without power because the Blizzard knocked out our utilities for who knows how long.
  13. I thought the AKQ AFD this morning was really well done. Not sure how much was model interpretation and how much was is climo for the region given the synoptic setup. I did notice there was restraint in making a specific forecast at the time for the Richmond metro, given the inevitable uncertainty either way. So many reasons this could bust high or low on snowfall totals and lots of second guessing either way. Hope the storm turns out well and my tenant occupied former residence in Powhatan is no worse for wear when it's all done. Lots of pine trees to ice up and fall over.
  14. Some free ideas that are worth what you paid for it. Not sure why so much effort is expended to tell people what not to do vs. what to do. 1. Lock down the forecast/model threads to pro mets and a handful of spotlighted non met contributors at moderator discretion. 2. Create a thread for second class model analysis and forecast speculation that is not so heavily moderated and people can ask questions / contribute without fear of persecution. 3. Take the silly banter threads to off topic where they belong - most of your traffic will never set foot there. 4. Start an obs thread that is open to all comers and focus your moderation efforts there as history suggests it will be needed. Seems like less work to me
  15. Keep in mind, the airport only measured 9" in 1/1996...although everywhere around did much better
  16. Congratulations to Wes, his afternoon CWG article is the headline on Drudge Report...
  17. I think you remember RIC being in the bullseye 48 hours out in 2003, and how it worked out. IIRC, those same NWP schemes showed nothing north of Baltimore and widespread 2'+ for all of CVA but clearly did not come to pass.
  18. Almost classic how the rain/snow line basically follows I-95 from RDU to EZF. Personally, I would be more concerned about seeing a post WAA dry slot here regardless if it is depicted by the models or not. What the graphic does not indicate is if the accumulated snow to the east is exclusively from WAA as the event is winding up or from wrap around as the coastal low is pulling away.
  19. Sounds more like December to me. The range takes us into mid February, which would otherwise be prime time for a nino induced snowfall which isn't likely with ++ temps anywhere close by. I thought DC snow climo was most hospitable in February and particularly so in the case of ninos. I am not sold on anything happening in January beyond what we've already seen, so if we are writing off the first half of February there isn't much left to hang a hat on this year.
  20. With supernino climo outperforming the models so far this season, do you really trust this?
  21. A few lonely flakes here, seems Leesburg missed out on this one mostly. Maybe FFX cashes in with a dusting?
  22. Not to abuse the analogs, but how many moderate-super nino years do we have to look at to find a meaningful mid atlantic snowfall in January? 1973 - no 1983 - no 1998 - no 2003 - no 2010 - no 2016 - ? Was 1987 a moderate nino? Seems maybe we have to go back even further.
  23. Sun came out for a brief half hour and the temperature spiked to 44*F. Sure that was reassuring to the town of Leesburg public works who spent the morning needlessly assaulting their roads with brine.
  24. ...when my front lawn is greener in mid January than in mid May...