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Everything posted by RIC_WX

  1. Flurries. 39.9 / 29 Must be cold somewhere close by
  2. IAD is officially +0.0 as of this morning for December. More days have seen - departures however. Being that we previously anticipated the period around xmas to be much colder, instead it now looks to be perhaps the warmest period of the month relative to normal. If the cold does not deliver post 12.28, we could build up a pretty significant + anomaly for the month, which isn't entirely representative of the first 3 weeks of the month at all. I am fearing the appearance of a SE ridge in January. Yes, under some conditions it can be helpful to nudge storms our way if not too strong and a source of cold air close by, but in the overall pattern we've established this month that thing could become a virtual heat pump and overwhelm the pattern pretty easily.
  3. Can't speak for elsewhere, but +0.5 and (after today) 7/11 days having mean negative departures MTD at IAD, does not necessarily a mild December make, especially when the consensus forecasts all have the second half of the month much colder. If we torch a couple days in the next week or so and finish the month with a zero departure, is it still considered mild? If so, it's basically just because our expectations from months earlier were for the icebox. Last December was like +2.5, but no one expected cold either. The fact the mild pattern has failed to deliver many mild days is very much a glass half full interpretation here.
  4. Merry Christmas and Congratulations ORF
  5. Rain falling with a high barometer reading has been kind of a hallmark this season. I agree it's an important and atypical clue you don't hear so much about, and would love the persistence to leave us on the powdery NW fringe of the storm track in January and February.
  6. JB used to talk about the pattern that sets in around the solstice being the one that persists. This was indeed the case in 02/03, so perhaps this season can follow a similar path. So far, we are no where near as warm as we were in mid December 2002, but this period is threatening to be a week or more longer than the interlude in that season based on the modeling trends for the time being.
  7. December 2002 had a pronounced mid-month warm up for 10-12 days, and was sandwiched by solid winter conditions either side. I much prefer this early winter pattern I think to the prospect of a December 1989 / 2005 where the pattern starts unsustainably cold and wears itself out in such a way we're pretty much forced to flip mild during what should be our peak winter climatology. Basically, let the pattern relax and reload now and be ready for prime time around Christmas.
  8. Yes but 2"-3" of snow might linger for days with the December sun angle, in March it's probably gone by lunchtime.
  9. Seems like back to back blockbuster winters here are mostly unprecedented in modern times. However, no scientific reasoning as to why this is the case, but I can appreciate why so many see a reason to remain bullish for the coming season, if only for persistence. Good luck with your outlook, I hope it verifies.
  10. You need the SE ridge, if there is any semblance of a block the SE ridge is what causes the miller A systems to turn into it and slow down, delivering copious snowfall to the mid atlantic in the process. No block and suppression, out to sea. Look at some of the synoptic setups for big miller A style KU events in the region, the difference between -10C at 850 and +10C is frequently 200 miles or less, with the center of circulation in between. Obviously, if the ridge is too strong or block is too weak, get out the umbrellas.
  11. Something I have been wondering too. I would think it has to be sometime in the 1960's, if even then and probably localized and not region wide.
  12. I vote Isabel. 95% of Richmond without power. Sunrise next morning looked like the day after. Isolated suburban locations without power for 30 days, outlying areas weeks more where the grid was rebuilt from the ground up rather than repaired. The eye remnants passed just west of the population area worst possible track. Nothing rivals this for maybe 50 years.
  13. Congratulations - record low temps at RIC are tough to come by any time of year.
  14. Good to hear from you Anthony and Happy Holidays! I don't know that a top-10 event is in the cards for any of us this year, but this winter feels like a throwback so far to me. Let's hope it continues. Most of the snowpack dried up over the weekend here, but a chance for replenishment as soon as tonight. Definitely enjoying the winter life in VA above 39* latitude - exclusive territory for sure.
  15. You may have me confused with Anthony, who usually posts under RIC Airport, although I thought his handle changed. As an aside, growing up in Richmond during the 70's and 80's, I always had this perspective of the rain / snow line existing around Fredericksburg with DC usually being snow and RIC usually rain. This winter seems to be shaping up similarly so far, although DCA hasn't cashed in I am enjoying my 7th consecutive day of at least patchy snowcover in Loudoun; we've had flurries on and off all day today. Hopefully CVA gets in on the game after the holidays as the seasonal progression pushes some of this south.
  16. 39.09xx N | 77.51xx W 12.08 - 3.5" SN and 0.25" Ice 12.10 - 3.0" SN
  17. Guess the bags didn't fly free on that day...amazing WN, a domestic airline no less, stranded planes at IAD. The international carriers I can understand though.