RIC_WX

Maybe not, but there is nearly unanimous consensus we would reach climo or climo+ on snowfall. Most of the region will exit December 150%-200% of normal on precip. That could continue, or we could just be normal or even slightly below for January and February and still finish the winter above normal on precip. And no one really forecasted a materially BN winter temperature wise. Either way, someone needs to start tracking cold air or even just seasonably cold air masses. This year increasingly has the "one storm makes climo" look to it, which historically happens here when the pattern breaks down (the hoped for pattern arguably isn't even showing signs of setting up, and most likely won't before Feb).

73 and 98 are absent from the "good years" dataset for a reason, but you already knew that. 16 kinda makes the point does it not - pattern flipped cold in early Jan, big storm and pattern breaks down. We are delusional if we think 02-3 or 09-10 are still on the table.

The good years in the Nino dataset all feature at least a period of cold/snow in December, or a decisive flip to cold and or/snow in the first 15 days of January. The latter is seemingly still in play, but absent of this verifying a big reset in expectations will unfortunately be coming. The "colder look after the 4th" is what dismays me. There has been consistency in the models to show BN at day 10 only to bleed warm and verify AN. These trends are way more important than any one good/bad day of LR looks.

The warmest departures from normal are coming in the next 6-7 days. Would you feel differently if there were normal temperatures outside of a single 7-10 day stretch where we hit 70 and struggled to get below freezing at night, and finished +2 / +3? Because it appears we are finishing a lot warmer than that.

While not 2015 levels of warmth, 60*F is beginning to look achievable for DC and close in suburbs for xmas eve / day. Depressing as this is, most recent examples here do roll forward to a somewhat pronounced and sustained flip into January. Unfortunately, it also sets the stage once again (similar to 2021-22) when the xmas holiday period and memorial day holiday weekend to see legitamately inverted absolute temperature values. Meaning, the average high at the lowest sun period of the year exceeding the average high for nearly the highest sun period of the entire year, for some meaningful period of time.

Impressive. We bottomed out at 16.9*

The LWX disco suggested significant upslope accumulation for the west slopes of Alleghenys, but mostly due to very cold air in the dendritic growth zone producing very high ratio snow. What I am seeing looks more like graupel, or dipping dots ice cream. That suggests there is a warm layer in there somewhere the models have missed. That is going to need to mix out quickly if we are going to reach even the WSW criteria out here. 26.9 / 23.0 (and slowly falling all day) 2595’

Motion Activated Camera

My cameras keep pinging me with blizzard images. Hopefully a preview of a lot more to come.

Somehow through a quirk of my unpredictable schedule I will manage to be up here to witness this. 35/27 and patiently waiting for the goods by the fire…

Down to 42* at Deep Creek (from earlier high of 61*) and on track for <32* around midnight. Looking forward to a couple days of winter preview here.

Checked my PWS and see I bottomed out at 33.9. Looks like upcoming Sunday-Monday night should be the first county wide freeze for Garrett.

If the storm track is east of the mountains this year (as virtually every model everywhere and climo suggests) Deep Creek will upslope its way to climo an inch at a time even without a big event and with nominal temps. Even if we have to wait for March, it's difficult to see this pattern not delivering.

At DCL. Comparing pictures from this weekend vs. this weekend last year and color is noticeably muted this year in comparison. Not sure how much of a proxy this is for DC tho.

Rain and lightning

Haven't most of the forecasted heat waves this season failed to deliver? What makes this one different?

I’ve discovered much the same - winter was definitely my attraction to Deep Creek but the summers were an incredible surprise. We were able to stay 2 full weeks in July and slept with the windows open all but a couple of nights. If it wasn’t for a few hours in the late afternoon sun we could probably get by without AC at all. Wish I could have been there today.

73/56 at Deep Creek. 10/10 for late July. Back to sweating in Leesburg tomorrow.

.96 at my place. Watching the scraps approach now in Leesburg, mountains definitely let the air out of this balloon. Right at 2” since Monday. Farmers will be thrilled, they were way behind coming into the week.

Closing in on .50” at Deep Creek with heavier returns moving in. Nice gentle soaking rainfall.

10/10 today at Deep Creek, a little chilly in the shade but almost perfect. Too bad the outlook for the weekend isn’t quite as nice.

Temperature graph for Deep Creek today. Yes, the spike was that sudden, went from maybe 1/4 mile visibility to partly cloudy in 10 minutes or so.

I don’t have one. Hopefully my wood stove drafting from the basement is burning it all up. If not, the CO it produces assures I usually don’t care. We finished our interior ourselves hence if you need a tool or something, I probably have it.

30 / 29 and freezing fog at Deep Creek. I managed to catch most of the good wx weekends this year, until now.

Many of the shutout years in the data set are followed by climo or climo+ seasons. I guess there are exceptions to everything but at this point I would think we are better off without any attempt at recovering this year. It does seem like the shutout years are at least as common as the blockbuster years and we’re clearly overdue for a good one.