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Everything posted by RIC_WX

  1. In a few weeks / months we will look back on this time period in amazement of how people were in such denial about how bad this season really was. People have been far more apoplectic during patterns far less hostile.
  2. 59 at JYO. Todays warm up over delivered.
  3. My perspective is the only difference between this year and 97-98, 01-02, 11-12 etc is that the NWP models have finally gotten good enough that we know well in advance the pattern has little if any chance to produce anything worthwhile. In those prior bad seasons, there were plenty of teases, the cold was always 10 days away, etc. This year really has been consistently bad, biased mild almost continuously since the 5th of July when Summer finally showed up and never looked back. Only change is it's been cloudy and damp for most of met winter. You would have actually seen a lot more traffic and a lot more whining those years, as people would track things for days only to have it fall apart after starting to take it seriously. At this point, the only thing that might surprise me is if we didn't see a prolonged period of cold and wet set in by at least the end of March. The sooner we can get that over with, the better. Would be the surest sign that Spring is actually on it's way.
  4. Sleet and rain in Leesburg, 39. Heavy precip. Whole event presents like a late season winter storm, more like a typical March or early April event.
  5. 1998 called, and they want their wx maps back. Please return before Seinfeld, and don't try and pick up the phone while you are uploading.
  6. Does not quite look to be advisory criteria event here in Leesburg, but you know, it's the thought that counts.
  7. After the March 1-2 2009 snow, my place west of RIC fell below zero on clear skies and 12" of fresh snowcover - pretty amazing given it was March. The CVA piedmont just radiates better than most of the area around DC, especially Leesburg - where seemingly any westerly wind component at all prevents temps from bottoming out. AKQ (at the NWS office) hit -2 on Sunday morning after the Saturday snow - and they are well east of the fall line. I don't think we made it to single digits up here. That said, the inverse is often true during torch periods when I am sitting in the upper 40's and everything east of RIC is 70+. I would guess this happens a few times seemingly every winter when rarely does CVA see consecutive nights of near or below zero temps - maybe once or twice a decade at best.
  8. The weather channel is doing a fabulous job reporting live on the cold rain falling in Atlanta and Charlotte, as the back edge of precipitation comes in to range on the Atlanta radar.
  9. 23.2 / 9 in Leesburg. JYO dew point down 6*F in last 90 minutes or so. Not too often we are the source region for someone else's blizzard LOL
  10. That thought occurred to me too after my last response :-). I agree, and posted about the SE VA snow in late December 2004 yesterday. That storm had a razor sharp cutoff too, with 12" over the HR peninsula and nothing at RIC. I do remember the clipper snows later on, and the biggest (-) departures showing up in early-mid March. I don't recall much second half snowfall south of DCA however, might have been more productive further north. Was my first season on these boards.
  11. 2005 was very cold from the 5th-23rd of December (a Dec. 5 snow event year, despite mild antecedent conditions); otherwise very warm, especially the final 7 days of the month. It was a sudden reversal, and IIRC all of the NWP schemes were showing endless cold into January until about the 21st and within 48 hours, it all suddenly broke down in a bad way. Despite that, it was still colder in the means than this year, because the middle 2 weeks of the month were almost unabated cold - most of the local stations would have been top 10 coldest December to that point, all the comparisons were to 1989. The NWP schemes were poor that winter too due to the fast flow (hence, my comment that some years just have more noise). No two analog years are the same and I agree there are similarities with the cold being concentrated to our NW, but in the means this 2016-17 is warmer so far. 2005-6 started cold and ended cold, and was more consistently warmer in the period centered around new years.
  12. So, you might want to ignore the obvious similarities to late December 2001 or 1973 to the storm this weekend. The only difference I can see to late 2001 is the big warmup is coming about 72 hours later as opposed to 24. But, in the late December 2001 case RIC solidly outsnowed DCA and that turned out to be the biggest event of the season for both stations. There are more examples in the record than you might think when RIC has outperformed DCA in absolute terms, but you have to go back to the 1960's to find a year where RIC outperformed DCA seasonally and both stations finished climo+. I agree model watching and speculation is fun but at some point, it's less signal and more noise. Pretty soon we'll be talking about "how warm winters end cold".
  13. I think there was a note that 2016 finished #2 all time warm at DCA. Most of the years on list, the following winters were some of our all time dogs. By next weekend, met winter is half over folks...might be time to let this one go. Actually, given how bad the pattern has been at times, I am only surprised it actually hasn't been warmer in the means to this point. Given that many pre-season predictions were for a "front loaded" winter, I have a feeling the cards are on the table and the...ugh...best may be yet to come in terms of +departures.
  14. Pity flakes in Leesburg. looks like better returns to the west.
  15. The 0Z Euro was a pretty decent match for 04. Regardless, neither one shows snow really getting here and these events that stay south and have precariously sharp cut offs absolutely happen from time to time.
  16. http://www.weather.gov/images/akq/events/winter/snow_dec26_2004.png Event summary: http://www.weather.gov/akq/dec-26-2004
  17. December 26, 2004 was 12" in the PHF-ORF corridor with 0" at RIC. The details, IIRC are a little bit different, but there are multiple similar precedents for the prospective wave 2 outcome.
  18. Didn't mean to misquote you. IIRC September 2001 wasn't anywhere near as warm as 2016, and likely October neither. My point was the endless prediction of sunny days and crisp, clear nights isn't entirely unprecedented although pretty rare. To use an aviation term, we've had a preponderance of "severe clear" days here lately...which aren't entirely common any time of year here for any extended period of time. At least 2 so far this week alone (portions of Monday and Thursday for sure).
  19. I agree with mitchnick that resultant wx in November resembles 2001 a lot. But, that year we had a very strong polar vortex (this year expected weak) and we had a lot of tropical activity this fall I don't remember that year, even though the rain largely missed DC. Also, CWG posted yesterday these patterns are comparable to November 83 / November 98. I always thought multi year analogs were a no-no in LR forecasting, and don't remember these seasons being called out too prominently anywhere. That said, 98-99 was backloaded in DC and mostly under delivered, no?
  20. In past seasons, we've complained about "wasting" cold in November when climo says it's not likely to snow anyway. Last December was about as bad as it can get here, hard to imagine we can't improve upon that.
  21. If you averaged data from multiple stations in the coastal plain, I think it would be a little less pronounced. Then again, if we could match absolute temperatures from 1995 vs. present day warmer averages, it would probably look more striking. Either way, the oscillating pattern we are in every few days is I think typical for seasons without a strong enso signal. Without persistent blocking I would expect the stronger the cold air mass, the more quickly the backside moderation on the return flow. Again, how this develops in November is telling if the 1995 analog has validity or not, which was the point of my comments, and noting that despite Cosgrove's overall warm look he was still giving disproportionate weight to this season and it could be correct...or not if the blocking never develops.
  22. Pretty sure for most Mid Atlantic reporting stations, October 1995 was biased warm and November cold. The averages today are higher, and the departures in October 2016 higher still from present averages, so pretty sure October 2016 was in fact warmer in absolute terms. As for "extended warm periods", that wasn't the point. They were not extended, but potent. All of that January blizzard melted pretty suddenly a week later and caused flooding. This is representative of the swings we are seeing in the pattern now, which again as the season progresses could continue and in fact become more potent on the cold side assuming the analog has any validity. If November averages warm, it's an indication this particular analog probably deserves less weight.
  23. Cosgrove uses 1995 2x weighted in his outlook. That is pretty telling. Point is, 1995 in the means wasn't a particularly cold winter in a lot of places. In the mid atlantic...conditions were a lot like they have been recently...where you get 48 hour + intrusion of cold air, followed by a big backside warm up. Thanksgiving weekend was a great example of this, it started very cold and ended mild. As the season progressed, the cold intrusions lasted a little bit longer / stronger and there were plenty of backside warmups. It's remembered as a benchmark winter mainly because when it got cold it was very cold, and seemingly almost always timed with an accumulating snow storm particularly in January / February. For this analog to have any continued validity for me November needs to get cold in the means at some point. IIRC, there was a pretty big flip after the first week or so of November 1995 after which time departures were biased towards cold despite the warmups on the backside of every cold air push. If November 2016 looks anything like October 2016 we might need to toss. So, in that respect I think the next couple weeks are pretty critical. I do wonder how many of us in the forum have first hand knowledge of the 95-96 winter...obviously many do, but as it has been 21 years I have to assume there are plenty who don't due to age, or were simply living outside of the Mid-Atlantic at the time.
  24. Cell in Eastern Loudoun seems to be evaporating before our very eyes. But, it did knock temps at least temporarily into the mid 80's.