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About EasternLI

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    Riverhead, LI

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  1. Worth mentioning that the strat is still trending. With 61% of gefs members on the 00z now having a ssw. Which is higher than I ever saw at any point during this last attempt. Just an observation this morning.
  2. Pretty much, yeah. That's a good way to explain it. I'd just add, the reason why la nina is often better in early winter. Is because la nina phases can be ok in early winter. Because wavelengths are different. But later winter, forget about it. I'm interested about next year. QBOE is on deck also.
  3. That is extremely unlikely. Enso neutral is still a possibility. El nino is favored. However we just can't be certain of anything just yet. Easily get burned at this time of year making assumptions with enso. That much I'm certain of.
  4. I'd have to read up on that. I have a hunch but I'm not sure. I'm not even sure if that's known. I'm going to look into this.
  5. We'll have to wait until spring plays out to see where we are with enso. There's a spring forecast barrier we need to get through to have a better idea how that looks.
  6. I'd buy a cold flip if there was a solid reason to. Right now, there's all the reason to buy a torch. So it makes sense tbh.
  7. No worries, it'll be November 180th before you know it!
  8. It's just plain hard to get good looks in a la nina February any way you slice it. Unless, blocking. The way I see it, there's also some constructive interference from the MJO with la nina just prior to that. So there it is. West gets the trough, as you can see by the cold there. We ridge. Beyond that, it's a little iffy to me. The MJO might want to keep it moving. But also, the American guidance is saying the strat might need to be watched again now. Which may add uncertainty beyond that. You just know that one will go off too, just in time to ruin spring
  9. I totally buy the eps furnace after the briefest arctic shot known to man. The end of the 00z has a real roasting in progress.
  10. I can only claim a trace over here today. Grass whitened with a Swiss cheese coating. Nothing on any reliable measuring surface on the ground. Still sitting with the 0.4" here from December here as far as I'm concerned.
  11. Gotcha, and that's fair enough. Will be interesting to see what happens. I still have questions about March anyway.
  12. I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina.
  13. I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating.
  14. Pure light snow. 32F I will accept this pittance
  15. Light rain switched to a light snow/sleet mix a while ago. Leaning mostly light snow now. 33F
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