EasternLI

Significant IMO. Really interesting year with that. I just feel like the magnitude of this event prevails through the autumn. Certainly interesting to see what happens!

Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs.

Gefs just finished updating for 6z.

Yeah agree.

Looks like this latest WWB was the strongest of the summer.

Yeah, thought that was odd too.

CPC MJO update from today confirming the mid month constructive interference that was targeted and verified. Culminating in the current WWB activity. Also the difficulty in identifying the MJO due to the strong Nino. The propagation though the western hemisphere was making me think a recurving typhoon was possible as a consequence of that. But that looks like a failed idea on most recent guidance. So still waiting on that. A selection of the bullet points from the update below: • The strong El Niño continues to be the major influence on anomalous rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) development throughout the global tropics. • During mid-August, the MJO began to constructively interfere with the strong El Niño similar to what occurred in July. • The MJO is expected to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during late August and then shift back to the Indian Ocean by early September. • The strong El Niño and a favorable MJO are likely to result in multiple TCs developing over the East Pacific through the end of August. However, a robust monsoon response in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is not expected. • High shear, associated with El Niño, will continue to inhibit TC formation in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic. • A wave-1 pattern persisted in the global upper-level velocity potential fields predominantly tied to the strong El Niño. • Although the strong El Niño is the main influence on the velocity potential anomalies, the MJO recently shifted east across the Pacific which led to the largest anomalous upper-level divergence in the past six months. • As the enhanced phase of MJO constructively interfered with the El Niño base state during early to mid-August, the RMM index exited the unit circle in Phase 6. • This behavior of the RMM based signal is very similar to the path taken earlier this summer. • Positive SST anomalies continue over the central and eastern Pacific, with anomalies now at 1.8°C across NINO 3.4. NINO 4 has gradually cooled during the past several weeks, associated with increased cloudiness over the region. • Remarkably strong positive subsurface temperature anomalies (> 2.5°C) persist across the Eastern Pacific. • Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded eastward to near the Date Line. • A majority of GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members depict the RMM index remaining over phases 6 and 7 due to the strong El Niño. It is difficult to discern the MJO evolution during the next month.

This current WWB looking pretty impressive. This isn't even the anomalies, these are the actual zonal winds.

Well there you go. The current WWB is another record breaking one. As was suspected would be the case with the latest MJO assist.

Yeah, that's a totally valid point. Any records from that long ago are questionable at best. I know there are reanalysis methods but still. Wish there was a better normalized way to look at it. Not as tied to temperature anomalies. Especially if rising global temperatures are a concern. I get that RONI is attempting to do that, but not sure how I feel about that yet either. What I do know is that out of the entire JMA archive of VP 200 anomalies. This event (the current 30 day mean obs posted below) is already now more impressive looking than anything in their entire record. Which goes back to the 40's. That includes 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 or anything else. Actually everything else in that data. At least as it stands right now and during this part of the year. That, to me, is making this event stand out much more than any temp anomalies ever could. It's fascinating to watch something extreme like this unfold. As an aside, I do not have high hopes for winter here locally. Very strong enso either + or - generally sucks historically here where I am. I will firmly believe that until proven otherwise because I've already lived through it. Extreme events are always interesting though, and this el nino is definitely that.

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

Does the AAO signal anything to us (NH)? I don't remember. I want to say no, but I feel like I've heard that it did somewhere. Just wondering because it's been very positive through most of our summer. Which is the SH winter. Even getting above 4SD for a bit at the tail end of June.

MJO is really booking it this year. I've read WQBO can speed it up too, so that's a little interesting. But man this thing is really flying. I feel like all that's going to do is constructively interfere with this el nino more often. Seems like this would just encourage the nino to take center stage even more so. Not that it needs that..