EasternLI

Yeah, I've seen a couple papers that attributed it to the super Nino. A more recent paper goes into some greater detail. I can't help but wonder if the powerful +IOD event last year played some role in the odd behavior of this year. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/6541/2020/ In addition to the anomalous behavior in the tropical lower stratosphere in 2015/2016, we explored the forcing of the unusually long-lasting westerly zonal wind phase in the middle stratosphere (at 20 hPa). Our results reveal that mainly enhanced Kelvin wave activity contributed to this feature. This was in close relation with the strong El Niño event in 2015/2016, which forced more Kelvin waves in the equatorial troposphere. The easterly or very weak westerly zonal winds present around 30–70 hPa allowed these Kelvin waves to propagate vertically and deposit their momentum around 20 hPa, maintaining the westerlies there.

Interestingly enough, the qbo that year actually was westerly below 30mb to the tropopause. This year actually looks to do that as well albeit with a thicker vertical profile. Also interesting in that 2007-08 was completely different then this year. Merely a couple observations. Cheers.

Worked this up for October 1970

Here's a newer paper on the MJO - AO connection. But also how the QBO modulation plays into it. For anyone who is interested in a little reading. It's open access. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/2/175

These blasted 3 part ridges are always the kiss of death. Or are they?? I found that particular pattern to be interesting. So I did a little digging. Only instance of this that I've found in a nina thus far. Doesn't mean jack, just something interesting. At least I thought so. Seemed appropriate to post it here now.

In a MEI sense, 2007 looks like the best fit.

My girlfriend lives in Branford. She says trees blocking roads everywhere, and a tree came down in front of her on the way home from work. Took her 3 hrs for a 20 min trip. This was somewhere on Rt. 1

Merry Christmas

I guess congrats on relocating to a different area are in order.

This has really been an impressive +IOD event. I was looking through the fabulous JMA charts and the only one that looks similar was 1997. The super Nino. I know that they mostly coincide with El Nino, but not always. Interesting to see one so robust without an El Nino. I didn't see any other years that looked quite like this.

That's a good point, and a nice observation as usual. I strongly agree with the bolded. It's exceedingly difficult to have ridging in both locations simultaneously. That's been documented in the research as well. It makes sense too, when you think about it. Like when we see a trough on the west coast and ridge on the east coast. Maybe part of the story of the ++NAO during those years with the --EPO. Interesting.

This is my favorite thing that I've seen that I've been watching. Seems like the IOD has indeed muted the MJO in the Maritime Continent this month as was hypothesized by causing subsidence. It's been weakening. As it loses its influence more and more moving forward, what might be the dominant forcing then? I still like where we're heading. This is not last year.

Ensembles look pretty damn good as we move into the new year. GEFS and now the Eps today.

Cheer up. It seems like things are coming together nicely. Just not yet. Watch what happens when we start getting into January.

Christmas day high temps on the EURO.