EasternLI

Riverhead, this event delivered 1.1" before the rain/drizzle. Thankfully not much in the way of ice. That makes it 6.8" for the season.

Those NWS maps are in line with what the EURO is showing. If you're wondering what the EURO is showing, that's basically it.

Today's edition is advertising a warm up mid March when the EPO flips positive. Along with a +AO and +NAO. Hope it's right with that. Seems to want to reload the EPO going into April though. Hope that's wrong. I'm ready for some warmer weather.

https://buffalonews.com/2017/01/22/blizzard-77-still-measuring-rod-massive-snowstorms/

0.1" of sleet last night. Whatever. But I suppose it counts. So that's now 5.7" for the season.

Winter 2018-19

It was a cool little event. I was anticipating like an inch before a washout. It ended up being a mostly snow to sleet situation. The sleet really adds some staying power. I was surprised to see how much was still on the ground this morning.

This event ended up delivering a 2.1" total over here. I found the few hours of a mostly snow grain with a little sleet mixture pretty cool looking. It seemed like a fog out there. This brings my 2018-19 season snow total to 5.6"

Oh yeah, I remember it all too well. Those were the days of doing backflips for a 3-6" event.

What a crap winter this has been. Even the terrible 80's years had offered up more snow to date than this year has over here. After 3" on Nov. 15th, I have a grand total of 3.5" for the season to date. Totally overdue though, after the run of years over the last decade plus.

Member E7 looked like more fun than the control. But seriously, I could see why next weekend could potentially offer up something. I don't think it's some fantasy idea. When the PV pulls away, that often times can leave a window for something. 12z eps isn't honking or anything, but there is some action off the coast during that time in the members. Just thinking out loud here, have to see what happens this week first.

Yeah, that's the hope I think. Those warm waters parked around Indonesia have been problematic in my opinion. Ideally, we want some cooler waters there with the warmer waters in the nino regions. Except nino 1+2, we want those cooler as well. Overall warm waters everywhere (anomaly wise) doesn't have the same effect. Like it was discussed the other day.

Nice post. I can't see the chi200 EPS version, but the GEFS seems to be heading in that direction. It looks like it might be trying to set up a proper Aleutian low at the end as well. Hopefully that's the right idea. I also find it interesting that NOAA never declared this an official el nino. They still have it as enso neutral. So maybe we should be thinking of this year more as a warm neutral?

Exactly, and well said. Basically where my thought process has been. Strongly agree with the bolded.

Hopefully that's what happens. I'm just a bit concerned with the lackluster look starting to emerge on ensembles with the Pacific in the 10-15 day. The Pacific should be helping out in an el nino at this point moving forward. It looks kind of meh on the latest runs.