EasternLI

Hopefully this trend continues....

Here's a very interesting tidbit from the twitterverse. I could be wrong, but I still think this winter is going to be a fun one.

This was a really impressive GEFS run today.

Wow, we're going into the freezer if this is right.

Well I'd venture a guess that climo would be one factor. It's still really early in the season. So you would probably need something more anonymous. Maybe a stronger block. Or a better PNA perhaps, along with that block.

Well, there was blocking though. The block broke down and the storm happened. Which is how it usually goes. Look at Greenland at the end of November.

Interesting that some guidance is hinting at a piece of the TPV making a run through SE Canada. Ensembles don't necessarily disagree with that notion.

1.2" over here during the overnight hours. Which, at this very early juncture, I consider a win. I'll take it and run.

Ok well I knew that the regular hrrr sucks, but I guess the new one does too. Good to know. But to be fair, it's a very difficult forecast.

And 9 hours later ...

HRRRv4 is still very good. East of the city is going to get in on this.

Experimental HRRRv4 I'd sign for this run in a heartbeat. Some select shots below

Amsterdam NY is about to get slammed in a few minutes. And it's already going pretty good. Here's a webcam for there. Time sensitive. https://wnyt.com/article/12991/

Sleet and a very cold rain mix going on over here. On a side note, it hurts very much when sleet hits you in the eye.