EasternLI

Merry Christmas

I guess congrats on relocating to a different area are in order.

This has really been an impressive +IOD event. I was looking through the fabulous JMA charts and the only one that looks similar was 1997. The super Nino. I know that they mostly coincide with El Nino, but not always. Interesting to see one so robust without an El Nino. I didn't see any other years that looked quite like this.

That's a good point, and a nice observation as usual. I strongly agree with the bolded. It's exceedingly difficult to have ridging in both locations simultaneously. That's been documented in the research as well. It makes sense too, when you think about it. Like when we see a trough on the west coast and ridge on the east coast. Maybe part of the story of the ++NAO during those years with the --EPO. Interesting.

This is my favorite thing that I've seen that I've been watching. Seems like the IOD has indeed muted the MJO in the Maritime Continent this month as was hypothesized by causing subsidence. It's been weakening. As it loses its influence more and more moving forward, what might be the dominant forcing then? I still like where we're heading. This is not last year.

Ensembles look pretty damn good as we move into the new year. GEFS and now the Eps today.

Cheer up. It seems like things are coming together nicely. Just not yet. Watch what happens when we start getting into January.

Christmas day high temps on the EURO.

Well verbatim, if the EPS is correct. It's the plains that sees the real torch and we are on the periphery. AN though, yes. Be interesting to see where it ends up. Going to need to put up some big numbers to close out the month if you want +2 or better imo.

Its also a reversal of the torch December's that we have been accustomed to for those years.

Interesting move from yesterday to today on the EPS. Yesterday, the TPV lobe in Canada was split with the dominant piece amplifying the AK vortex. Today, it's headed for SE Canada and 50/50 bound thereafter. Plus more arctic ridging yet again.

I've been intrigued by this winter for some time now. I still am.

AO heading in the right direction.

Big Iceland storm, looks wild.