EasternLI

Starting to wonder how much of that can be attributed to the AO which has been mainly positive for several months. Think that stubborn ridge that's been east of Japan has some relation to that at least.

MEI updated and has 2.4 for AS.

1877-78 was known as the year without a winter. Interestingly a very powerful el nino event that year.

Yeah, not too sure how that ultimately plays into all of this either. Unique circumstances.

Only one other year is remotely close to this year based purely on the VP200 charts. Similar story as a month ago. That one is 97-98, but this year is stronger...

Luckily there are some other ways to view the strength of enso besides SST related metrics and those are pointing at a record event as well. Record WWB's, record shear for the Atlantic hurricane season, VP anomalies that make all the other years pale in comparison. The MEI could be another and I'll be curious to see that once it updates with Sept included plus future updates. RONI vs ONI is an interesting conversation but I think both are likely useful in their own ways.

There's a whole different complexion to the Pacific look on modeling since a couple of days ago. Looks like a big GOA low idea was too aggressive and won't verify as was originally advertised. As a result, much more of an -EPO look coming up instead. Interesting to see the ridge east of Japan trend to be just a little bit squashed too during that time. Will be interested to see how much the current 11-15 day look transforms as we move forward with all that in mind.

Will be interesting to see how the PDO responds through October with recurving typhoons on the menu for the month. Next one getting warmed up in the batters box now. Choi-wan. Which looks potentially stronger than Surigae was. TBD. Beyond that looks like pretty good chances for something to follow up too.

Yeah surprised winds weren't higher than that overnight. Not complaining

Ok here we go, this is great to see. We've been waiting for the recurving typhoons to show up and now it sure seems like they very well could be. We had that one occur what about a week ago now albeit not very impressive at all. My read on that one was I took it as a baby step. Now we have another one slated to do so. Typhoon Surigae. Beyond this one. It looks like chances are pretty good for another one to follow in about another week's time. As most models as of this morning give that impression. Sending these into the north pacific adds the fuel to help fire an Aleutian low. Wouldn't you know it, we're seeing a semblance of one on ensembles now. I don't think these things are unrelated and it will be really interesting to follow this. Feels right on time during October too.

Euro at 12z still likes the overnight tonight for the strongest winds as the system maxes out for us and starts the hard left turn. 70knts over a good chunk of LI and CT shoreline at 925mb

Starting to get some daylight now and man it is ripping out there already. This is a hell of a storm coming at us.

Most models still have the strongest winds starting overnight tonight through early tomorrow... this is the euro.

Analysis recorded the center at 987mb as of 06Z today.

Caught up in the imminent nor'easter attm. But worth noting the +AAM percolating into the NH a little bit better this time since the big AAM spike.

Yeah, efficient mixing was what caught my eye on that sounding. That's going to be problematic. And I'm already getting gusts around 40mph here right now currently. We're looking at tomorrow night on that. Yikes.

Ouch. Tomorrow night is really going to rip some winds through here. This is from the euro. 925mb plus a sounding from the same time. I usually feel like winds are whatever, but this time it looks kind of legit. Nam just spit out something similar too.

Hopefully nam just being the nam and was up all night drinking. I'd really rather not see any 978mb tempest sitting anywhere out there by later on today.

Most models seem to have the system max out sometime between 00z and 06z Sunday. So here's the 12z Euro ensembles at 06z Sunday. First image standard physics based EPS. Second image AI EPS. Personally still thinking this occurs somewhere just south of Montauk (~50-100mi). Be interesting to see what guidance does tonight.

I think the track on the euro AI ens is close to ultimately how this goes. With the loop west just south of somewhere between Suffolk co and Block island. That feels about right given everything. Has been quite breezy already this week. Expecting pretty big impacts from this thing locally.

AIFS-ENS sure seems to favor the idea of this thing having some impact...

Yeah the PDO is an important feature in the grand scheme of things. I would advise against diminishing it's ability to modulating this event, as I have said before. How much and in what way is an intriguing question though given a record breaking el nino. See the above CPC text from @bluewave. "the PDO phase is negative and may dampen the typical impacts of a strong El Niño in certain areas" Ok, but how? Where? The following study goes into that a little bit: Modulation of ENSO teleconnections over North America by the Pacific decadal oscillation https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9327 The main finding from this multi-model SMILE study is that a positive PDO acts to amplify El Niño and diminish La Niña teleconnections over North America, while a negative PDO has the opposite effect. we find that the largest modulation occurs for temperature over Alaska and Canada and precipitation over California. Our work builds on Dong et al (2018), who make similar conclusions, by focusing specifically on North America and demonstrating that these results are robust across multiple fully coupled climate models. While Dong et al (2018) forced their atmospheric model with fixed SST patterns for 50 years, we show that the amplification and diminishment of ENSO teleconnections by the PDO hold for a realistic model configuration where ENSO events occur with a variety of patterns, amplitudes, and durations. Atmospheric circulation anomalies are found to mediate the modulation of ENSO by the PDO. Specifically, Aleutian low and Pacific jet anomalies associated with an El Niño are enhanced by a positive PDO and weakened by a negative PDO. This result is consistent with the results of Dong and Dai (2015), who show that Pacific Decadal Variability (measured using the IPO) influences North America via the atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. we find that the modulation of ENSO temperature and precipitation teleconnections over North America by the PDO can be described as a simple combination of the effect of the individual modes. This result agrees well with Rao et al (2019) who suggest a linear interference of the impacts of the two modes is likely.