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EasternLI

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Everything posted by EasternLI

  1. EasternLI
    On the latest 30 day means of VP 200 anomalies. I see only one other event even remotely comparable to this one. 97-98 and this one looks like a beast next to that even. Super impressive stuff. I mean just look at this thing...
  2. EasternLI
    After falling back somewhat, albeit much less than earlier forecasts were advertising. Seemingly due to some -MT activity mostly. The next +AAM uptick is now imminent and from an already very elevated level (>+2). Likely achieving a new high for this event (>+3). This time, it seems poised to more readily affect the NH than any other time over the summer. So that will be interesting to see how that plays out and how it verifies. Right on time it feels like, to me, as we start heading through MET autumn but let's see how it goes.
  3. EasternLI
    I do not have any prior runs saved for comparison, unfortunately. However, it does look quite wet for Dec.
  4. EasternLI
    Dec, Jan, Feb :
  5. EasternLI
    Cansips for DJF:
  6. EasternLI
    Yeah this pesky ridge east of Japan still being pesky. Not really any signs yet of it going away for the foreseeable future as of now. Interestingly, that seems to be a hallmark of a negative PDO during Sept. Meanwhile, the el nino during Sept would have you believe it should have some resistance or begin to fade away. That's a curious feature. Will be interesting to continue watching that. Want that to go away so we can get a recurving typhoon or two.
  7. EasternLI
    Last 30 days, this year is head and shoulders above the rest of the super nino's. Quite an impressive look on the VP 200 charts now.
  8. EasternLI
    Pretty good WWB ongoing right now actually. This looks to be verifying a tick stronger than guidance had been showing. Another good one coming in a week to 10 days too it appears. No question El nino is in control of the tropics. MJO is MIA faced with this event. All el nino IMO. Maybe some hint of it increasing influence into the north pacific during Sept on the AIFS-Ens now. But we'll have to see how that goes and how that verifies.
  9. EasternLI
    Exactly right. I've been noticing the same thing for at least a month now already. I have a hunch that changes in the fall but we'll see what happens.
  10. EasternLI
    Love that gradients were mentioned. Everything weather related needs gradients in order to operate, after all. I'm going to take this opportunity to add a PDO illustration to that same context. Because if you really dig deep into the research on it. You will find that the most important feature of that in a sst sense is the warm or cold tongue. Remember that when the PDO is in phase with enso, that enso effects are amplified. Out of phase, the opposite occurs to a degree. It is the increase or decrease in the gradients through latitude sst that contributes to this. You can see in the image below how a negative PDO(opposite of picture) in conjunction with El Niño offers a relaxed sst gradient by latitude. That makes it all the more interesting to see how this year evolves.
  11. EasternLI
    Yeah. You would expect to see some recurving typhoons instead of that. Key part of the puzzle IMO. Which we are still waiting for...
  12. EasternLI
    Disagree that the odds are nearly zero. I do agree that the sheer magnitude of this el nino prevails. And I believe this autumn will do major work on that. However I also believe it is a true battle between the two. As the upper air pattern driving said PDO are fighting against it. PDO after all is a reflection of a predominant 500mb pattern. It takes effort to transform that as research shows. A major driver of this is known to be aleutian low variability. So it will be fascinating how that shakes out. The runaway strengthening on pause currently could be a little clue towards that. Or maybe not, but I would not be overly confident in either, and I am not.
  13. EasternLI
    Significant IMO. Really interesting year with that. I just feel like the magnitude of this event prevails through the autumn. Certainly interesting to see what happens!
  14. EasternLI
    Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs.
  15. EasternLI
    Gefs just finished updating for 6z.
  16. EasternLI
  17. EasternLI
  18. EasternLI
    Yeah agree.
  19. EasternLI
    Looks like this latest WWB was the strongest of the summer.
  20. EasternLI
    Yeah, thought that was odd too.
  21. EasternLI
    CPC MJO update from today confirming the mid month constructive interference that was targeted and verified. Culminating in the current WWB activity. Also the difficulty in identifying the MJO due to the strong Nino. The propagation though the western hemisphere was making me think a recurving typhoon was possible as a consequence of that. But that looks like a failed idea on most recent guidance. So still waiting on that. A selection of the bullet points from the update below: • The strong El Niño continues to be the major influence on anomalous rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) development throughout the global tropics. • During mid-August, the MJO began to constructively interfere with the strong El Niño similar to what occurred in July. • The MJO is expected to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during late August and then shift back to the Indian Ocean by early September. • The strong El Niño and a favorable MJO are likely to result in multiple TCs developing over the East Pacific through the end of August. However, a robust monsoon response in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is not expected. • High shear, associated with El Niño, will continue to inhibit TC formation in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic. • A wave-1 pattern persisted in the global upper-level velocity potential fields predominantly tied to the strong El Niño. • Although the strong El Niño is the main influence on the velocity potential anomalies, the MJO recently shifted east across the Pacific which led to the largest anomalous upper-level divergence in the past six months. • As the enhanced phase of MJO constructively interfered with the El Niño base state during early to mid-August, the RMM index exited the unit circle in Phase 6. • This behavior of the RMM based signal is very similar to the path taken earlier this summer. • Positive SST anomalies continue over the central and eastern Pacific, with anomalies now at 1.8°C across NINO 3.4. NINO 4 has gradually cooled during the past several weeks, associated with increased cloudiness over the region. • Remarkably strong positive subsurface temperature anomalies (> 2.5°C) persist across the Eastern Pacific. • Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded eastward to near the Date Line. • A majority of GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members depict the RMM index remaining over phases 6 and 7 due to the strong El Niño. It is difficult to discern the MJO evolution during the next month.
  22. EasternLI
    This current WWB looking pretty impressive. This isn't even the anomalies, these are the actual zonal winds.
  23. EasternLI
    Well there you go. The current WWB is another record breaking one. As was suspected would be the case with the latest MJO assist.
  24. EasternLI
    Yeah, that's a totally valid point. Any records from that long ago are questionable at best. I know there are reanalysis methods but still. Wish there was a better normalized way to look at it. Not as tied to temperature anomalies. Especially if rising global temperatures are a concern. I get that RONI is attempting to do that, but not sure how I feel about that yet either. What I do know is that out of the entire JMA archive of VP 200 anomalies. This event (the current 30 day mean obs posted below) is already now more impressive looking than anything in their entire record. Which goes back to the 40's. That includes 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 72-73 or anything else. Actually everything else in that data. At least as it stands right now and during this part of the year. That, to me, is making this event stand out much more than any temp anomalies ever could. It's fascinating to watch something extreme like this unfold. As an aside, I do not have high hopes for winter here locally. Very strong enso either + or - generally sucks historically here where I am. I will firmly believe that until proven otherwise because I've already lived through it. Extreme events are always interesting though, and this el nino is definitely that.
  25. EasternLI
    These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.
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