Jump to content

EasternLI

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,744

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by EasternLI

  1. EasternLI
    Another thing I'm curious to see. Do we start seeing recurving typhoons in the pacific more often again? I don't have stats, but I feel like there's been a dearth of those for the past several years at least. I think some of that could be blamed on a lack of any real phase 8 forcing over that time. There's research out there that describes how it manifests itself in the pacific. Which is that the recurving typhoons are an artifact of phase 8 which in turn act to invigorate the Aleutian low. They're one of the driving forces of that feature apparently. There has certainly been a dearth of those over the same time too.
  2. EasternLI
    Actually, I think that makes a lot of sense. As the long term trend of the H3 PDO had been signaling something similar. The biggest question IMO, is do we see a change going into the 2030's. Mixed feelings on that.
  3. EasternLI
    Ah, but are we talking sst pdo, or upper air pdo (like the one I posted)?
  4. EasternLI
    Personally, I have a sneaking suspicion that the reason for that is a long term deep multidecadal -pdo state (since 2000). Which is evident on the H300 PDO plots (image below). I'm wondering if this might mitigate the super el nino effects somewhat. As there is research out there suggesting that possibility. Sort of would explain the lack of the north Pacific low thus far... If / when one would develop. It would explain it being weaker than one would expect in a super el nino according to said research. This is also quite interesting...
  5. EasternLI
    I wanted to make a post about this last fall, never got around to it. Watching a super nino develop now, and drinking some surfside iced tea's, I feel compelled once again to bring up something that's kind of interesting. Perhaps a clue that a super nino would have been on the horizon the following year? I thought the severely negative IOD last year was quite interesting. I had found a paper at that time discussing purely very strong negative IOD events. Diversity of strong negative Indian Ocean dipole events since 1980: characteristics and causes https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07008-x Notice the years where the strongest of negative IOD events occurred... It's really interesting to me how 3 out of 4 of those years came on the heels of very respectable el nino years. But one however did not, and that one occurred the year prior to a super el nino. That one occurred prior to 97-98. They noted that three of those events are attributed to monopole events (mainly the warmth in the east). Not surprising, these three are the ones following the respectable el nino years. The one year that was an actual dipole and featured the cooling in the west in conjunction with the warming in the east. Had the super el nino the following year (97-98). Unlike the others. The authors attribute that lone occurrence to local processes (in the IO) mainly. The other monopole cases are attributed to WWB in the IO which have links to enso. So when we look at last years case, what is the prognosis of that one? Clearly, there was no respectable el nino the year prior. Clearly, it was of the dipole variety in the sst anomaly data (image below). So it's interesting as hell to me watching this super el nino developing now. Potentially record breaking at that, following after a type of negative IOD which only really matches the year prior to 97-98. (I think the PDO is a major difference from that year specifically. May try to dig into that more later) Cheers.
  6. EasternLI
    Storms look to be firing along the leading edge of the heavy smoke plume. Which is kind of wild to watch.
  7. EasternLI
    Thinking somebody gets a boatload of rain out of this. With the front draped through the area. SPC targeting the area. Plus radar now seems to be lining up to eventually slice through the area and 2" pwats in place.
  8. EasternLI
    Yeah, looks like that was indeed legit!
  9. EasternLI
    This Suffolk storm was far more robust than hi res models had it. The models show the stuff to the west swing through during the overnight. So there probably will be more a little later.
  10. EasternLI
    House shaking thunder and people are still shooting off fireworks
  11. EasternLI
    Big time light show looking east now. Saw several huge CG. Wild storm
  12. EasternLI
    Man this is a good storm here. Vivid lightning and thunder, strong winds and whiteout type downpours. Haven't seen anything like this in quite some time. Still a crazy light show now.
  13. EasternLI
    Nah, that's a thing of the past.
  14. EasternLI
    Really impressive.
  15. EasternLI
    Yeah, it seems to be ticking north little by little with that lately.
  16. EasternLI
    54" on the season after today. I agree with the 60+ number being the bar for an epic winter. That does seem to be the bar set from previous epic winters.
  17. EasternLI
    Its probably something like a day or two and not nearly as impressive as it seems now. I feel like that's something that's already played out like this with guidance earlier this winter. I'm skeptical as well. Of any torch being prolonged. Ensembles have been overheating the east for months now.
  18. EasternLI
    What is this madness lol
  19. EasternLI
    LOL
  20. EasternLI
  21. EasternLI
    There's discrepancies every year with that map.
  22. EasternLI
    Don't see any big prolonged torch in the cards with this happening. Even though I'm more than ready for one lol. Luckily, I'm going to the Bahamas on the 11th. So you can probably lock in a March biggie for that week This will probably want to keep the vortex hanging out near Hudson bay. Which has been a preferred locale for it all winter long already. I'm not exactly getting early summer vibes from that idea.
  23. EasternLI
  24. EasternLI
    Imagine if the threat after the Jan event worked out too? Whew, we'd be talking about a blockbuster winter.
  25. EasternLI
    RI and SE Mass still getting hammered is totally bonkers
×
×
  • Create New...