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EasternLI

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  1. EasternLI
    Judah Cohen or no Judah Cohen. If el nino wishes to terminate the wave train by rebuilding these Ural Blocks like this, the PV will keep taking future shots... Looks entirely possible if not probable and it's been a mainstay feature on ensembles too. What does that ultimately mean for this year? Up for debate. Just noticing, but it's not meaningless.
  2. EasternLI
    Weeklies increasingly picking up on the el nino now as we head into November. By the end of this run, which is near the end of November, it's basically the classic look we'd expect.
  3. EasternLI
    Yeah, I noticed this too. That's Ural blocking. That block is actually a good feature to see show up if the hope is for a weakened PV this winter. Will be quite interesting to see if it keeps showing up. Especially throughout November. In fact, case in point, the weeklies today showing a little something and it's likely related to that same block currently modeled. Ural Blocking as a Driver of Early-Winter Stratospheric Warmings https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082097 "This study explores the early-winter atmospheric response to Ural blocking anomalies in November, using a nudging technique to constrain the temperature and dynamics in a high-top atmospheric model. Persistent Ural blocking anomalies in November are associated with a warm Arctic/cold Siberia pattern and increased upward planetary waves entering the stratosphere, leading to a warming of the polar vortex. This stratospheric response then propagates in the troposphere, leading to increased occurrence of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in December and January."
  4. EasternLI
    I'm finding this WWB more and more impressive the more I look at it. The MJO is diametrically opposed to el nino at the same time this is happening... Causing destructive interference. It's not until we close out the month and into Nov when it circles back to enhance the background state again. Causing constructive interference at that time. Expecting to see that through November much like the sequencing from the end of July through Aug. It appears similar in amplitude as that one also.
  5. EasternLI
    Another big time WWB is in progress currently. This time pushing east of the dateline. First chart are the actual zonal winds.
  6. EasternLI
    Here are the main points from the CPC MJO update posted today. No surprises, el nino is the main event. With a notable mention of the +IOD potentially beginning to show itself now as of late.
  7. EasternLI
    They seem to have downloadable archive files in addition to 3 text files which can be viewed directly on a web browser. With the downloadable ones also containing the text files. I thought that was weird too. Not sure what the purpose of that is, but I'm sure they have their reasons. The following 3 links are the text links which will be displayed on a web browser. Full list of data (since 1953): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat Singapore data only (since 1987): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore.dat Singapore data for 2026 only: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore2026.dat
  8. EasternLI
    And growing..
  9. EasternLI
    Fortunately there are still alternative ways to view how the QBO is doing. The FU Berlin site (which you and some others may remember) was one of the better datasets until those updates were discontinued. Thankfully the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology has taken that same dataset and decided to continue the updates to it from where they left off. The raw data is also available there in the same format the Berlin site used to use. Here's the link if anyone is interested: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/english/807.php
  10. EasternLI
    A few really good comparison graphics from the CPC oceans monitoring posted today. Such an impressive look this year compared to the others.
  11. EasternLI
  12. EasternLI
    Starting to wonder how much of that can be attributed to the AO which has been mainly positive for several months. Think that stubborn ridge that's been east of Japan has some relation to that at least.
  13. EasternLI
    MEI updated and has 2.4 for AS.
  14. EasternLI
    1877-78 was known as the year without a winter. Interestingly a very powerful el nino event that year.
  15. EasternLI
    Yeah, not too sure how that ultimately plays into all of this either. Unique circumstances.
  16. EasternLI
    Only one other year is remotely close to this year based purely on the VP200 charts. Similar story as a month ago. That one is 97-98, but this year is stronger...
  17. EasternLI
    Luckily there are some other ways to view the strength of enso besides SST related metrics and those are pointing at a record event as well. Record WWB's, record shear for the Atlantic hurricane season, VP anomalies that make all the other years pale in comparison. The MEI could be another and I'll be curious to see that once it updates with Sept included plus future updates. RONI vs ONI is an interesting conversation but I think both are likely useful in their own ways.
  18. EasternLI
    There's a whole different complexion to the Pacific look on modeling since a couple of days ago. Looks like a big GOA low idea was too aggressive and won't verify as was originally advertised. As a result, much more of an -EPO look coming up instead. Interesting to see the ridge east of Japan trend to be just a little bit squashed too during that time. Will be interested to see how much the current 11-15 day look transforms as we move forward with all that in mind.
  19. EasternLI
  20. EasternLI
    Will be interesting to see how the PDO responds through October with recurving typhoons on the menu for the month. Next one getting warmed up in the batters box now. Choi-wan. Which looks potentially stronger than Surigae was. TBD. Beyond that looks like pretty good chances for something to follow up too.
  21. EasternLI
    Yeah surprised winds weren't higher than that overnight. Not complaining
  22. EasternLI
    Ok here we go, this is great to see. We've been waiting for the recurving typhoons to show up and now it sure seems like they very well could be. We had that one occur what about a week ago now albeit not very impressive at all. My read on that one was I took it as a baby step. Now we have another one slated to do so. Typhoon Surigae. Beyond this one. It looks like chances are pretty good for another one to follow in about another week's time. As most models as of this morning give that impression. Sending these into the north pacific adds the fuel to help fire an Aleutian low. Wouldn't you know it, we're seeing a semblance of one on ensembles now. I don't think these things are unrelated and it will be really interesting to follow this. Feels right on time during October too.
  23. EasternLI
    Euro at 12z still likes the overnight tonight for the strongest winds as the system maxes out for us and starts the hard left turn. 70knts over a good chunk of LI and CT shoreline at 925mb
  24. EasternLI
  25. EasternLI
    Starting to get some daylight now and man it is ripping out there already. This is a hell of a storm coming at us.
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