EasternLI

Happy new year everyone. Quick reminder, this can start to become a very beneficial feature if you can push it just a little bit further east past 150E... As is, this isn't even terrible... And with a big time WWB set for the dateline coming up/in progress.

Hi res still swinging that squall line through the city starting around 6am.

Solid 1.5" OTG from that over here. Happy new year

Seems to be a big question mark in the 8-10 day range in the EPS guidance today. Regarding the NAO block and what ultimately happens with that now. Not surprising, but it is important. Some guidance such as the 12z OP Euro from today. Want to send a rather inconspicuous little cannonball of energy from the ULL through that block which breaks it down. Sometime around day 6-7. Which would be probably the most unceremonious way possible to get it to end. We'd likely see the ridge roll into the east and then wait for the changes in the Pacific during a much milder period. But then you have the 12z EPS for the 8-10 day period. Which seems quite against that idea and apparently favors keeping the blocking instead. Which would keep the coastal track storm chances in play. As per the leading EPS cluster scenario. Or even the 2nd one. The OP Euro idea is included in the minority cluster number 3. The least favored outcome. Maybe tomorrow offers a clearer picture but it's interesting to see the OP run with a minority of support in the ensemble today though.

That thing is starting to remind me of the clippers of yore. Which would juice up a tiny bit when it hits the Atlantic and drop a couple or 3 inches of fluff out this way. Used to love those. It's been forever.

EPS has support for something 8-9th.

People often wonder if the means on ensemble runs are representative of what is actually happening within the individual members. Or just some blurred out average of a bunch of members. Which is where I think the EPS clusters are very useful. The EPS clusters from todays 12z EPS suggest that was a weenie run. True -NAO blocking full support now on the day 5-7 range. Leading cluster (containing the most members) in the day 8-10 range which also includes the OP 12z euro for further support. -NAO period, with a couple of chances at favorable coastal storm tracks in that one even. Day 10-15 leading candidate for direction of travel has the -NAO decay into a burgeoning +PNA which goes absolutely ape by day 15... I get a healthy imagination seeing a +PNA reaching for Siberia...

This winter is nothing like the other 2020's winters that everyone has PTSD from. Just look at how December has behaved. But don't only look at that. Look at how we're rolling forward into January now on the heels of that. Look at the big picture. It's true there is a stemwinder set to visit the great lakes region in the near term. There are blizzard warnings in the upper midwest stretching into the lakes. At the same time, there's blocking out in the Atlantic. It's been a long time since we've been faced with anything like what's going on. Reach back into your memory banks and recall that a stemwinder into the lakes, while there is blocking in the Atlantic, is the classic way to achieve a good old fashioned west based NAO block. Which is starting to become more clearly visible on the EPS now. While that's happening, the Pacific block which had been very persistent, is broken down due to a fortuitous Pacific jet extension. Which results in Aleutian troughing that forces a period of +PNA. Then even at the very end of this loop, look at what is happening. The Pacific pattern starts to retrograde. That is going to act to pull the +PNA ridging west and up into Alaska and beyond all of this we'll probably transition to a -EPO from there. Which you can start to make out on this loop with the height rises happening over Alaska, but also the falling heights in Canada and Hudson Bay. That would coincidently also be consistent with how weekly guidance is currently rolling all of this forward as well. Which, by the way, with this configuration if we did indeed follow that roadmap. We'd likely reload Canada with the arctic again. Plus we'd end up faced with a 500mb pattern which is the precursor to a PV split. Eyes wide open.

January looks quite promising actually. Look at the direction of travel on the EPS. We're starting out the month with what looks increasingly likely to be strong blocking. So it's a time to keep eyes open simply due to that. Then, beyond that, the big Pacific block was taken out. There's a trough now in the Aleutian Islands forcing a +PNA. With what very well could be a decaying west based NAO block by then... There's some really good potential in all of that as we head into peak climo.

10-15 day range on 00z EPS clusters had big support for strong blocking on the leading scenario. 30 of the members included in that one.

Finished up with 5.5" OTG. So December will finish the month with 10"+ of snow over here. That hasn't happened in many years...

Just over 4" OTG. Still snowing pretty good here.

Still snowing pretty hard over here. Closing in on 4 OTG.

~3" OTG still coming down pretty good here.

Yeah, radar is sweet.

Yeah, that put down a quick 1.5" and it's still coming down good too.

Dumping.

Oh yeah this is a nice band. Started right up when it moved in. And it's dumping here now. Everything covered.

Hmm you know what, that pattern shown on that 1/19-25 timeframe of that run caught my eye. It's a pretty interesting one. These are very similar key features displayed, to the key features of the 500mb precursor to PV split pattern. Which would be a leading indicator ~14 days ahead of one should one manifest itself properly. Big trough over East Asia, Big ridge in pacific up through Alaska, Vortex in Hudson Bay and Canada, little bit of SE ridge. Even a subtle hint of the high pressure in the Urals in these height lines. Something else to keep an eye out for if we see that. Lots of interesting things going on this year.

I've been quietly liking my spot in this since yesterday. Anticipating these slight bumps NE. Longitude helps a bit here in this Frankenstein pattern situation. You'll probably do pretty well too I think.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 7 and 10 inches. * WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday.

Area to watch is higher up actually. DGZ in this is way up around 500mb so look higher for the banding signatures in models. But there is a sneaky warm layer to keep track of too ~750mb. This sounding is from somewhere near the sleet line.

Watch that. If you can squeeze even a slightly more amped ridge in the west here, this quickly becomes really interesting with a block in the Atlantic.