EasternLI

Eps and gefs are now both pushing the tropical signal into the Pacific harder. Re-energized. I hope you all get winter coats for Christmas. Say goodbye to the SPV too, if that goes off as strong as it's looking. We'll revisit next month.

You guys will be begging for a warmup come January JMO.

2 camps on the EPS for that. I think this Friday system needs to get out of the way first. For a clearer picture. Tons of spread.

Just got a chance to look things over. I kinda liked the 12z eps, personally. It's a fairly decent match to the phase 6 composite at the end of the run. What does that mean though? To me, it means the the tropical signal is gaining more prominence again. Which is what we want to see. But also, that it's making it's way into the Pacific now and it's getting reflected as such in the 500mb. Which is also what we want to see. A good phase 6 and 7 pass here would be very helpful towards dismantling the SPV. I do wonder if the upcoming jet extension (c/o +EAMT) helps kick off this process. Not sure, but interesting to think about. If we can achieve phase 8 in January, that would be a KU signal. Fingers crossed we can achieve all of those things. It's a tricky, funky year but it's taking us down the interesting path.

Just some flurries.

Nice little coating of snow this morning. Roughly 0.5" on grass/colder surfaces. I'll take that on December 12th, nice holiday feel this morning.

Yeah, saw that. I can see the eps members playing games in the tropics. They can do that sometimes. It happened last year. We witnessed some of that again with the gefs doing better with the Pacific this year. Gefs is much more coherent looking with the tropical signal going into the Pacific faster. I think the eps will come around. It's going in that same direction already anyway. Just not as clearly, yet.

Well gefs is going for the ridge link up as well. Ok then. And let's be clear here. The picture is day 10, but this starts at day 6.

I would love to see these 2 ridges get together over Santa's house. What would that be -6 ao lol. But it's also just a cool illustration. Simply look at what something like that could do to the TPV. It's shattered in pieces all over the NH.

Outstanding. We even see the classic blocking look of PV lobes trapped underneath. Very nice run.

Sick gefs at 12z. Pattern loaded after end of week deal all the way out. Cold centered on the great lakes is a good look for the area.

Yes. And I'm waiting to kneecap the PV in an attempt to have it stick around all winter. Still very optimistic about that too. Fingers crossed.

We very well could have a cold Christmas en route for the first time in forever.

That is not bad, 06z GEFS. I would very much like to grab a lobe of the TPV and stick it in the Aleutians.

Ahh, ok. Good eye by Griteater here in this excellent tweet thread. I did notice the tropical signal propagation into the western Pacific gaining traction on guidance. I was totally missing that there's about to be a +EAMT event this week. Those events really are important to Pacific Jet variability. I need to remind myself to pay more attention to that area. That's going to lend strong support to the idea of the arctic outbreak. The tropical signal (phase 7) was/is the big reason I'm just sitting here waiting in the dark alley, in dark attire, for the SPV to walk by.

No concrete thoughts about it yet. That's light years from now in this pattern. More just glancing at it. I guess I'd lean more towards the eps, though, because I think it's best equipped to handle the northern blocking. Feels like gefs may be playing catch up a bit with that. We'll see, plenty to track now while we wait.

Moving the right direction on the GEFS.

06z gfs waits until Monday, but at least showing something this time.

Something funky about this year. I've been saying since November. Just peeking at the extended 00z eps. The look from the 12z yesterday has held serve. What raised an eyebrow for me is this curious little move on the cluster analysis. Check out the arctic profile on last night's leading cluster. That was the 2nd place cluster on yesterday's run. So last night it takes the lead? Thought that was a bit interesting. They're centered on Europe, so rotate your screen accordingly. (Green border just means -NAO profile)

Arctic outbreak look. Cross polar flow on this.

Appreciate it. I'm in position with the brass knuckles.

I'm increasingly thinking we're heading right for the -AO winter scenario. The vortex is in rough shape. Certainly not strengthening rapidly like it should be at this time of year. In addition, the tropical looks are starting to resemble phase 6, if not phase 7. That's according to both gefs and eps this morning at the end of those runs. This would also be a very bad development for the vortex. Precursors have also displayed themselves this season already. The Urals blocking is an example of that. There's signs pointing towards this outcome, and we haven't deviated from that path. If anything, we're further along that path in my eyes.

Look at the tilt through the vertical column. That is not good, bordering on terrible for the vortex. It's been having a bad year with no signs of stopping.

It's not a happy PV on guidance I'm seeing either. It's still up and running, but doing so with 2 black eyes and a broken arm at the end of most runs. Not only that, but increasingly. Definitely interested.