EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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I can only claim a trace over here today. Grass whitened with a Swiss cheese coating. Nothing on any reliable measuring surface on the ground. Still sitting with the 0.4" here from December here as far as I'm concerned.
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Gotcha, and that's fair enough. Will be interesting to see what happens. I still have questions about March anyway.
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I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina.
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I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating.
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Pure light snow. 32F I will accept this pittance
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Light rain switched to a light snow/sleet mix a while ago. Leaning mostly light snow now. 33F
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Minus 1 for NYC on the eps mean.
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Nice try.....building. How is this any better lol
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It's a game again lol
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Yup. 49ers in trouble quickly lol
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We 2001-2002...
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Crash Eagle's Crash
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Roy Munson winter
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~5th doesn't look so terrible for some kind of system. The vortex is lifting away from our lap. Leaving some cold available. We do get windows in those situations. Timing that right, that's another story.
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Just to tack on to this quickly. The following figure from the following article, nicely displays what we would like to see instead. Bias this further east towards the central Pacific, you can get a nice Pacific. Biased west, extending towards the Indian Ocean, we can get what we've seen. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49449-7
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Yup. Boring winters are the worst. This one is evil though. How dare you flash us that December block, fail on that completely, then do this. Shoot it into the sun.
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Past 30 days of OLR(shading) with 200mb velocity potential from JMA. Past 30 days of sst averaged. Warm pool did the heavy lifting in the tropics this month. You'd expect a horrible Pacific with this type of positioning here. Just like we got. I have a theory about why the Pacific jet may have remained supercharged for so long as well. With the TPV parked in siberia for the bulk of the month. Which set some cold records there. Then you have this warm pool sitting directly south of that. I'm wondering if that sharp temperature contrast between the two features at least helped that happen. The longevity of it. Can't prove that right now, but it's a idea.
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Ah yes, this is the standard operating procedure of the weather weenie. We all know it well. You're having a better time than me. Here's a live look at my situation:
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Yeah, I'm just having some fun. So very much goes into it. I'm becoming more and more of a believer that the PDO plays a tremendous role too. The more I read about that in updated research. Same idea with the gradients. I feel like this was a major factor in 95-96 TBH. La nina, but positive PDO that year. I think that helped us out. Quite rare to see that with la nina.
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Can be, have to be careful though
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And that's true also. That's because they set up too much of a gradient. Same thing with strong la ninas. It's usually too overwhelming. Where it's positioned matters too. These circulations alter the jet stream. It's all such a fine balance. That's without even adding anything else into that equation lol. And there's a lot. But this is one of our most important factors for sure. Since it happens in the Pacific.
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Right. That's one way to do it. The other way is to see some cooling of that warm pool. And that's still possible at times as well, because there's still going to be at least some variation with it. Like there is with enso. That feature has the ability to take control of global weather patterns though. Since it's intrinsically linked with enso. So I personally have some grave concerns about that feature continuing to warm in the future.
