EasternLI

Really starting to crank here now. Heavy snow and a hair over 3" OTG

Coming down good. A little over 2.5" OTG here and climbing quickly at this point.

What did they get before that? 12z means thats starting from 7am

Yeah wow, c'mon RRFS you got this.

1" OTG and snowing pretty hard now 13F

Yeah, that looks a tick cooler on the 12z nam

Snowing quite nicely out there. 0.5" OTG already. Should be a fun day.

Light snow has started here with a dusting. 13F

Some of the hi res stuff has the sleet line really struggling to get through LI lately. Hopefully we can pull an RRFS out of a hat. I do think the thump with this one will be impressive regardless.

Yeah, didn't hate the 18z euro. More similar to it's 00z run then the 12z run was.

Well the GFS doesn't see us as important enough to include in the country so we have to extrapolate.

I think this is closer to reality from that run

The extreme cold warning in New Orleans is pretty impressive. ...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 9 above expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of freezing temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes.

I'm feeling pretty much the same as Rjay. Been thinking 6-12 range most of the day. It's going to rip really good for a bit I think. Should be fun.

18z HRRR snowfall from the model itself through 23z.

This part, right here : A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out in the heaviest bands with the impressive dynamics aloft and deep moisture being lifted over the low level arctic air.

I think its playing games in the mid levels as its transitioning to the offshore low

Not saying I trust it. Just saying I'd take it lol

I would sign right now for the 6z Ukie

Yeah, that event was quite important. In retrospect.

Man oh man. If you're a fan of winter the latest ensemble runs are for you. For your viewing pleasure, here's the entire 00z GEFS loop this time (EPS on the same page btw)... Check out what's going on as we start to move into February. Pay special attention to the TPV and the arctic. Notice how it splits into 2 main lobes with ridging increasingly overspreading the pole? With one of them landing in Hudson Bay stretching into eastern Canada. Back in the beginning of this thread I'd posted the precursor pattern to a Strat Split. Which occurs ~2 weeks prior to said events. Subtle changes in the hemispheric layout over the last week have resulted in a damn good match of that. Happening this weekend. The Sunday event is a part of that and fits right in that look. Then take a look at what is going on higher up in the Strat in about 2 weeks time. Ensembles are increasingly beginning to latch on to the idea of a PV split up above. Again, the EPS is doing this too. That is happening in conjunction with an increasingly -AO in the troposphere and a cold pattern already established. Probably worth mentioning that we currently have an amplified MJO passage through the Pacific in progress as well. On it's way to the Western Hemisphere. Which are correlated to these kinds of events also. Over the years, through reading various different sources on Strat events and ramifications. There was something to look for if you were hoping for it to be beneficial to your locale. That is an already cold pattern prior to and during a split. Which we also do look to have should this go off. So like I was saying yesterday... LFG!

Been preoccupied watching the weekend storm, but man... Have a look at the whole 12z EPS... LFG

Just get that 850 low to transfer south of us. Cuts off the warming and keeps the moisture feed going. I'd like to see more of that on the 00z runs.

Next week is a legitimate real threat too. Pattern supports it as does the MJO for once. Don't wear yourselves out on this one

That was a pretty sweet 18z GFS. Better timed phasing and that's why you want to see the coastal take off sooner and not later. It shows what's possible if that can happen. That's all that run really said to me. But at least there's still hints of that happening on any guidance too though. Let's see what the euro's got at 18z.