EasternLI

I think its playing games in the mid levels as its transitioning to the offshore low

Not saying I trust it. Just saying I'd take it lol

I would sign right now for the 6z Ukie

Yeah, that event was quite important. In retrospect.

Man oh man. If you're a fan of winter the latest ensemble runs are for you. For your viewing pleasure, here's the entire 00z GEFS loop this time (EPS on the same page btw)... Check out what's going on as we start to move into February. Pay special attention to the TPV and the arctic. Notice how it splits into 2 main lobes with ridging increasingly overspreading the pole? With one of them landing in Hudson Bay stretching into eastern Canada. Back in the beginning of this thread I'd posted the precursor pattern to a Strat Split. Which occurs ~2 weeks prior to said events. Subtle changes in the hemispheric layout over the last week have resulted in a damn good match of that. Happening this weekend. The Sunday event is a part of that and fits right in that look. Then take a look at what is going on higher up in the Strat in about 2 weeks time. Ensembles are increasingly beginning to latch on to the idea of a PV split up above. Again, the EPS is doing this too. That is happening in conjunction with an increasingly -AO in the troposphere and a cold pattern already established. Probably worth mentioning that we currently have an amplified MJO passage through the Pacific in progress as well. On it's way to the Western Hemisphere. Which are correlated to these kinds of events also. Over the years, through reading various different sources on Strat events and ramifications. There was something to look for if you were hoping for it to be beneficial to your locale. That is an already cold pattern prior to and during a split. Which we also do look to have should this go off. So like I was saying yesterday... LFG!

Been preoccupied watching the weekend storm, but man... Have a look at the whole 12z EPS... LFG

Just get that 850 low to transfer south of us. Cuts off the warming and keeps the moisture feed going. I'd like to see more of that on the 00z runs.

Next week is a legitimate real threat too. Pattern supports it as does the MJO for once. Don't wear yourselves out on this one

That was a pretty sweet 18z GFS. Better timed phasing and that's why you want to see the coastal take off sooner and not later. It shows what's possible if that can happen. That's all that run really said to me. But at least there's still hints of that happening on any guidance too though. Let's see what the euro's got at 18z.

Maybe. Wish more levels were available. Even if that happens the precip is about to shut off anyway I think with a dry slot. We'd have a good dump anyway before that. Still a ways to go with this thing. Should be fun to see what happens.

Didn't see any mention of the Euro AI from 6z. It's outstanding.

Not very often that you see winter storm headlines cover that much real estate. In NNE, those are actually extreme cold watches. Impressive.

Steady at 12z on EPS. Very similar to 6z.

We take.

Seems like its been slowly trending towards doing more of that too. Here's the last 7 runs.

This cluster is growing FWIW..

6z gfs just threw it's hat in with this cluster from the euro weeklies from yesterday. Interesting winter we have going on here. Let's see how we go.

Nice update from the CPC MJO desk today. Here are the bullet points: • The MJO amplified over the last week, with a strong projection over the West Pacific on the RMMbased MJO index. • While eastward propagation has not been established on the RMM index, it is highly evident in the upper-level wind field. • Destructive interference between the MJO and the ongoing La Niña base state may be helping to slow the eastward propagation of the low-level winds and convection. • Dynamical model forecasts indicate an active MJO pattern, with the signal crossing the Pacific and Western Hemisphere through late January and early February. • Tropical cyclogenesis is most likely to occur in the vicinity of Australia or across the southwestern Pacific. • The MJO is likely to play a role in the evolution of the midlatitude pattern, acting to reinforce the cold signal across eastern North America. • Following a less coherent pattern for much of December, a robust MJO signal re-emerged at the start of 2026. The enhanced phase is currently over the far western Pacific. • The spatial presentation of the upper-level velocity potential anomalies has a Wave-1 signature consistent with MJO activity. • A strong couplet of easterlies (westerlies) has exhibited eastward propagation, and are currently centered over the Maritime Continent (East Pacific). This is consistent with robust MJO activity. • A shift in the position of the strong upper-level low in the vicinity of Hawaii helped calm the active pattern that began in early January. • The low-level wind field is less coherent than the upper-level signals, possibly due to destructive interference between the MJO and the ongoing La Niña event in the equatorial Pacific. • Trade winds have weakened somewhat across the equatorial Pacific, especially north of the Equator. • A strong westerly wind burst is ongoing just north of New Guinea, over the heart of the West Pacific Warm Pool. • Enhanced convection has begun to propagate to the West Pacific, mostly north and south of the Equator, as the MJO interferes with the La Niña base state. • Suppressed convection has overspread the equatorial Indian Ocean, consistent with MJO activity. • Suppressed convection continues across the central Pacific, mostly south of the Equator. • Both the GEFS and ECMWF depict rapid eastward propagation during Week-1, followed by a brief slowdown of the index and then continued propagation across the Western Hemisphere. • Other modes of anomalous tropical convective activity such as Kelvin waves may be at play in this uneven evolution. • The MJO is likely to continue playing a significant role in the evolution of the global tropical convective pattern for the next few weeks. • The GEFS RMM-based OLR tool depicts a robust signal, with somewhat slow eastward propagation across the Pacific. • The constructed analog tool also shows a highly amplified signal, with a better established eastward propagation across the Pacfic.

That really is a pretty good clustering showing up on today's run.

What a sweet looking loop this is. Notice at the end also how the +PNA heights are re-firing as the Aleutian/Dateline low amplifies. No real red flags from the MJO this time IMHO. Let's see if we can put a nice little run together. I think there's plenty of tracking that lies ahead.

I'm legit thinking that Aleutian low pulses the +PNA again beyond that too. MJO would actually support it too. Good potential for a legit stretch I think. It just needs to produce.

That's getting pretty beefy now on the 12z AI EPS for tomorrow.. Buy or sell?

This run

I've been pretty adamant about the first phase 8 attempt being a fraud regardless of what the RMM charts had shown. Now, given the renewed MJO... Which still looks quite good to me for a real run at phase 8 this time on latest guidance btw... I'm more bullish on this run being more successful, but we'll see of course. Therefore, I believe the gefs is displaying the more plausible route forward. It's also slower with the MJO wave, which I believe would actually be the case. I think some of the RMM charts (EPS) posted lately are rushing it too much. Look towards the beginning of Feb or shortly thereafter for that potential IMO. This would support the idea of an energized Aleutian low/+PNA outcome such as the gefs is displaying. In addition, only one cluster on the extended range 00z EPS run from last night. So that means they're not helpful in showing different options in the extended this run. However, the one cluster that there is, does look to support the same idea also. Moreso than the smoothed out mean would suggest.