EasternLI

Hey man, I have the keys to the bus. I'm thinking of warming it up.

A side note. If you take the TPV and swing it out to more of an Aleutian low like this. The SPV has a strong problem.

12z eps is mint. Pacific improvements begin on the 15th. And get better from there. Everything else on track.

Zero issues from my point of view. I love that the -PNA showed up for early December. I have an increasing feeling that it pays us dividends, later. This is not last year. Not even close. Different animal.

I thought the 00z eps was outstanding. The NAO block retros to west based on the 13th which has been the target date. Which in turn is starting to knock down the SE ridge. Still some Pacific troughing hanging out early on. But the Pacific straightens right out later in the run. These things take time to evolve, we're in good shape IMO. First panel is day 9 now too.

Well now I had to look. Yeah, bullish, we'll need to keep an eye on it.

Yes I've seen him on Twitter in the past. Thats interesting. He's very rarely bullish.

Sudden stratospheric warming occurs 15-30 days following that. Based upon the observations of those events in the research. That's a really really close match. If one was looking for longer lasting -AO possibilities. The -NAO retrograding through that point, is a very good way to start looking.

Would not change a single feature. NE Canada Ridge, Ural Ridge, Atlantic Low, Sea of Okhotsk Low, Western trough, Vortex passing by Alaska. Excellent.

It's been getting hammered. But still not enough. The end of the month though has potential for a show. The precursor look is there on all guidance. And with an evolving favorable tropical signal. Which is looking good at this time as well btw. It's not the standard situation for sure. Real signs pointing to watch this.

I don't think so. This seems kind of unique. Funky year. I wouldn't compare it to anything. It'll be interesting to look back at it.

Yeah, it'll be interesting too because it's been beat up all November. It's getting beat up by this block. From below, which is unusual. I think it's worth the occasional glance.

I think we do see some of that later on, eventually. But I'm referring to the stratosphere. The Urals ridging is a very good sign for vortex disruption.

Its an ensemble mean. Plus it matches the 00z eps run for a change. So that's not insignificant IMO. I'm not talking any specific events. Just the progression.

Way different than 00z lol.

06z gefs today looking fairly similar to the 00z eps so far. So that's good.

Absolutely loving the resilient ridging near the Urals. That's always a good thing.

I've always liked the potential for the pattern improvement around mid month. I mean, consider the timing with the holidays. But that was just potential last month. We appear on track and I find that pretty phenomenal. Beyond December still holds promise too, but we'll have to see how that goes. First things first. Let's reel in that blocking.

The run ends here, for those interested.

We're basically trending things in the exact direction I'd hoped for all along. But to each their own. The first image is now a beautiful representation of the ssw precursor pattern. The second is when the -NAO retros to west based and sets up as advertised. On the 13th like it has been for days. Too much focus on a couple days of ridging. That's part of a promising pattern for future prospects anyway lol.

I'm 100% fine with the trends we're seeing. I may be in the minority. That se ridge is part of the SSW precursor pattern. The classic looking textbook version of it. It's sort of on all the ensembles now. The NAO retro to west based still looks on track around the 13th. I haven't seen that change. It's before that. The models were rushing things for a bit. If we can see the SSW precursor pattern, which includes the se ridge mind you, for a few days. Still in early December. I'm all for it. It could end up paying large dividends later. All good in my eyes.

Just to elaborate a bit. As discussed last month. La nina with a WQBO acts to keep the MJO out of the Pacific and relatively inactive overall. Respectively. But Kelvin waves are different and are not affected by any of that. So here's the 18z GEFS as a decent example. You can see the constructive interference signal previously mentioned where it gets more amplified. But the signal keeps it moving into the Pacific as well. Right through la nina to boot. Also at a faster pace than the standard MJO would. This is quite a bit different than last year. When we had a real MJO but it was mostly trapped by la nina. Keep in mind, we've done this once already this year.

I don't see any issues with the MJO. That's the constructive interference signal that HM was alluding to in those tweets. We don't have a MJO in the way we did last year. Kelvin waves appear to be doing the work. It's a little different and way more complicated. This is a funky year.

Yes it is. I didn't mind the 12z GEFS either TBH. There can be a storm opportunity when the block first retros to west based with these. I think that's the look we're seeing around 12-15th. Before that it's still evolving IMO. Not ready yet. Better storm chance when the block breaks down. But we're not seeing out that far. Who knows though. We'll see what happens. That'd be my WAG.

I wouldn't mind the short lived hostile Pacific look emerging. In fact, I'd probably even welcome it. If it ends up with this general look. It's not perfect. Could use a bit more Ural ridging. Maybe a bit more AK trough but halfway decent alignment.