EasternLI

LOL

Yeah, I saw that tweet. I've been trying to figure out what those other 2 years were. I'm assuming 94-95 and the 97-98 strong el nino year based on the following chart.

Looks like that would be MJO related. As the low frequency signal remains with the possible record breaking Indian Ocean dipole. I'm interested to see what happens after the fall with that. Being that the fall is climo peak for those events.

2005-06 and 2010-11 were both la nina years. 2010-11 is in the top 5 for la nina years in fact. I'll sell on either of those walking through the door. I'm still feeling bullish about winter attm, I'll take the over on 30" at NYC.

It's a good look to see setting up as we head to the end of the month and into November IMO.

Sorry I didn't get a chance to respond to you earlier. The idea is that you want to see the higher SST'S near the equatorial dateline. So that can drive convective forcing in that area. Which can help drive the PNA. That's the really simplified explanation. Now, other factors have to be taken into account, as well as how they all operate together. Some can constructively interfere(work with) or destructively interfere(work against). So either of those ENSO states can deliver a productive winter depending on the SST layout plus other factors. A neutral event is more susceptible to being overpowered by other factors but it's the same general idea. It gets complicated, because ultimately everything works together.

@bluewave

Since the NAO is being discussed in here, I thought I would share something I found with you folks. Just throwing this out there for discussion. UCL (University College of London) has a group that has made a prediction for the NAO for this upcoming winter season. Namely January and February. If it actually happens, who knows but I thought I would share it. "Our deterministic (single most likely) forecast for the 2020 JF NAO is a value of -0.86 or -0.85 in standardised units. This would rank the 2020 JF NAO as the most negative JF NAO since JF 2010 and the thirteenth most negative JF NAO since 1953." Their data and methods can be found in PDF form here: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea and Smallwood (2019).pdf

Yeah, and that's actually very interesting. It sounds a lot like an El Nino Modoki type 2, if that were to happen. There's a paper on that, in fact. Your post reminded me to look into that again. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00107.1 "For El Niño Modoki II (the third column of Fig. 4), the warm SST anomalies first appear in the subtropical northeastern Pacific in spring and then further develop, reaching the equatorial central Pacific. The SST anomaly pattern in El Niño Modoki II resembles the Pacific meridional mode shown by Chiang and Vimont (2004)"

Totally agree. As a result, I think that analogs are perhaps not as useful as they once were. I think I'm pretty bullish on this winter coming up. The + IOD along with the +PMM while enso is neutral has me intrigued. Add to that the descending E qbo with low solar background. It's an interesting season ahead of us I think. One thing I'm curious about is how a bloated Hadley cell factors into all of this. I'm not very fond of that, but it's the times we live in with a warming world I guess.

If at first you don't succeed... Give up?

Those two were also east based el nino years. Which we don't have this year. Plus, everything @bluewave mentioned. 1994 1997

Well, ENSO is neutral. So not really going to have any easy calls based on that index. That leaves the door open for other drivers to take the wheel, so to speak. I'm actually a much bigger fan of the SST layout than I was last year. Cooler waters near Indonesia as compared to last year for one, which I think was one factor that worked against last year. It'll be interesting to see what happens. What I find interesting right now is the ++PMM. Curious to see how that evoles going forward. I'm putting this in banter because it didn't seem right in the other thread amongst all the 90's lol.

I'll take the under on those temps for Suffolk county. Euro can be over done at this range with that. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it.

Yeah, hopefully we'll pay dearly come DJF.

Looks like a close miss here. Not by much. Whatever was left of it just skirted by to the west of me after this frame. Looks like it was dissipating a bit, but I'd rather not take my chances with a tree falling on my house anyway...

Holy crap, just looked at the radar. It looks to pass very close to where I am possibly. Buckets of rain right now

Pumpkins everywhere!!

Yeah, I've noticed what is going on down there and I've been interested in seeing if there is any connection. I did find it interesting that there aren't many examples in the modern record of southern hemisphere ssw. I've been looking for paperwork on the subject but it seems to be a topic of current/future research. I did find an article that goes into a relationship. However it seems the relationship only pertains to October and February for the southern hemisphere to northern hemisphere connection. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081002

@frd Give this paper a read. Backs up your thoughts WRT lag albeit a bit more of a lag, as it pertains to solar. Plus what immediate effect could be. Thought you might find it interesting maybe others would too. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.2782

Maybe bears? Any bears in the area?

Always good to see this. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0153.html Edit - didn't realize this was posted in the other thread as well.

Indeed. Light snow is falling in Riverhead as well.