EasternLI

Just happened to come across a BOM update from a couple of days ago on the IOD. They expect lingering influence into January. It will be interesting to see what happens with that. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/ "The decay of the IOD is associated with the seasonal development of a monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere around December, but this process is well behind its typical schedule and is likely to happen significantly later than usual in 2019. As a result, the influence of the IOD is expected to persist into January 2020."

-NAO signal is still there. This is what that looks like on an ensemble mean. The EPS took steps towards this look today. First 00z then again at 12z. Here's the GEFS. Now, that outcome actually has some support. From the MJO. Some research has shown that MJO passage through phase 7 can force -NAO between 10 - 20 days later, if the atmosphere is receptive. +NAO after passage through phase 3. Right on time as per latest guidance. Note, I'm not looking for any specific storm threats right now. I'm more interested in the big picture. I'm a pretty big fan of what's been happening thus far.

Warming trend cancel?

Ensembles (GEFS + EPS) are warming up to the -NAO idea. Looks like there's potential for a split flow out west and quite possibly a legit -NAO along with it as we get towards the end of the month. Good times. I can't help but see these developments as positives as we move forward.

Well, alrighty then...

Agreed. Will be fascinating to watch everything play out.

Right, and that's why I find the end of the ensembles very interesting right now. But I've also seen some research suggest that there is a 7-8 year oscillation between + and - NAO winter regimes. We're about due if that's accurate.

Yeah, the Aleutian low is where my eyes have been glued since the beginning of the month. It's really good to see since the favorable winter composites have that feature during November. It's not everything, no, but it's much better to have it then not. I think the +IOD could be beneficial this year. Because it acts to suppress tropical convection around Indonesia. Which is the warm phases of the MJO. That was a real problem area last year, as you know. Being so strong this year I wonder if the effects linger through at least a part of the winter. It's really a fascinating year, and I still like what I'm seeing.

That's the very beginning stages of a -NAO at the end of the ensembles. Both eps and gefs are showing it. Plus, the precursor pattern for it is being advertised before hand as well. Let's get that going in time for December for a change.

If we look at the 2 October's from your example and compare with this October from your post. One is a little more interesting.

LOL

It's a good look to see setting up as we head to the end of the month and into November IMO.

Well, ENSO is neutral. So not really going to have any easy calls based on that index. That leaves the door open for other drivers to take the wheel, so to speak. I'm actually a much bigger fan of the SST layout than I was last year. Cooler waters near Indonesia as compared to last year for one, which I think was one factor that worked against last year. It'll be interesting to see what happens. What I find interesting right now is the ++PMM. Curious to see how that evoles going forward. I'm putting this in banter because it didn't seem right in the other thread amongst all the 90's lol.

Yeah, hopefully we'll pay dearly come DJF.

Pumpkins everywhere!!

Didn't feel it

Happy Thanksgiving folks

I agree with your main point here. It's November, right. The thing is, seeing blocking show up for the end of Nov. like this, is kind of what you want to see in a la nina. The ratter years, for the most part, didn't have it. That's what it's all about right now, at least for me.

They were.

Yes... Oh wait you mean the weather.