EasternLI

I keep thinking about this tweet from a few days ago.

That 6Z euro was pretty snowy for a lot of the region on Monday.

Howling winds over here this morning, gusty. Everyone have a happy Thanksgiving!!!

Yeah, you're right!! It does sound strange. I wasn't sure if that's what it even was when I first heard it.

Pop up downpour here too. I think I can hear thunder in the distance.

I agree. Sounds like last year to me. I'm wondering if the +IOD can mute that somewhat. Being that it's helping with subsidence in that area.

+PNA emerging after the 9th on EPS and GEFS today. So both are advertising that now. Not such a bad way to head into met winter, given the potential beforehand. Regardless of how anything plays out.

I don't know. We'll just have to see what happens, but I'm not really seeing as many similarities with last December right now. Other than the eastern Africa/west IO area, the canvas looks totally different to me. One other thing is, I don't really hate dealing with a phase 2 in December. Especially if the +IOD can constructively interfere with it. Last year it seemed like we were plagued by 3,4,5 for endless amounts of time and everything else was muted. Hopefully we can get some variation of the following.

Aleutian low / +PNA on the eps extended again.

I mentioned something to this effect a while back. These guys take it a step further. My thoughts were, and still are, that the warm phases are somewhat muted by this. Regardless, nice to see it being discussed.

Screw the weaklies. I'm just appreciating the aleutian low/ +pna look that has been building the past 4 runs in the extended eps. And that continued today. But everyone is busy canceling winter, in November.

That eps map is reflecting the MJO forcing in phase 1 due to the + IOD. That's the response you get in November from that area. As winter progresses, that changes. Some NAO is being added into the mix this go around. Which, the fact that it's actually looking to happen at all is promising for later on down the road. Meaning, maybe it shows it's face more often this year. Also, the + IOD event will be weakening as we make our way through the winter months. The question in my mind is, does the +PMM take over at some point? If it does, this place will be buzzing.

Those wave breaking events that they are talking about. Root for that to happen very often moving forward, in that area.

If you're interested: The North Pacific Oscillation–West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern: Mature-Phase Structure and Winter Impacts https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007JCLI2048.1

Just happened to come across a BOM update from a couple of days ago on the IOD. They expect lingering influence into January. It will be interesting to see what happens with that. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/ "The decay of the IOD is associated with the seasonal development of a monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere around December, but this process is well behind its typical schedule and is likely to happen significantly later than usual in 2019. As a result, the influence of the IOD is expected to persist into January 2020."

-NAO signal is still there. This is what that looks like on an ensemble mean. The EPS took steps towards this look today. First 00z then again at 12z. Here's the GEFS. Now, that outcome actually has some support. From the MJO. Some research has shown that MJO passage through phase 7 can force -NAO between 10 - 20 days later, if the atmosphere is receptive. +NAO after passage through phase 3. Right on time as per latest guidance. Note, I'm not looking for any specific storm threats right now. I'm more interested in the big picture. I'm a pretty big fan of what's been happening thus far.

Warming trend cancel?

Ensembles (GEFS + EPS) are warming up to the -NAO idea. Looks like there's potential for a split flow out west and quite possibly a legit -NAO along with it as we get towards the end of the month. Good times. I can't help but see these developments as positives as we move forward.

Well, alrighty then...

Agreed. Will be fascinating to watch everything play out.

Right, and that's why I find the end of the ensembles very interesting right now. But I've also seen some research suggest that there is a 7-8 year oscillation between + and - NAO winter regimes. We're about due if that's accurate.

Thank you for sharing. My thought process has been similar. Especially the +IOD and the NAO. I don't put anything together like this mostly because of time restraints, but if I did it would be very similar. So good luck and I hope it verifies.

Yeah, the Aleutian low is where my eyes have been glued since the beginning of the month. It's really good to see since the favorable winter composites have that feature during November. It's not everything, no, but it's much better to have it then not. I think the +IOD could be beneficial this year. Because it acts to suppress tropical convection around Indonesia. Which is the warm phases of the MJO. That was a real problem area last year, as you know. Being so strong this year I wonder if the effects linger through at least a part of the winter. It's really a fascinating year, and I still like what I'm seeing.

That's the very beginning stages of a -NAO at the end of the ensembles. Both eps and gefs are showing it. Plus, the precursor pattern for it is being advertised before hand as well. Let's get that going in time for December for a change.

If we look at the 2 October's from your example and compare with this October from your post. One is a little more interesting.