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EasternLI

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Everything posted by EasternLI

  1. EasternLI
    Hopefully that's what happens. I'm just a bit concerned with the lackluster look starting to emerge on ensembles with the Pacific in the 10-15 day. The Pacific should be helping out in an el nino at this point moving forward. It looks kind of meh on the latest runs.
  2. EasternLI
    Not a fan of the sst profile myself. Phase 5 is Indonesia. Well, look where the warmest water is along the equator. ENSO anomaly charts are overrated IMO. The ground truth is more important. Why does the convection seem to want to hang out near phase 5 this year? Here's today: Here's one that I saved from Jan. 11th: Just something that I've had in the back of my mind...
  3. EasternLI
    Could have started as a very brief period of light snow in the overnight, if I did I missed it. Steady soaking rain at this time. With much more on the way as per radar. Temp stuck at 39 with a light north wind, so guidance that shot into the 50's over here will likely be wrong. Hearing occasional rumbles of thunder in the distance presumably from convection to my SE. Looks like about 1.21" of rain thus far. Wondering if the Euro with 1.5 or Nam with 3" from yesterday will be closer to reality.
  4. EasternLI
    I just want to add a quick illustration of what you're talking about here. Here's the 6Z GFS just as an example. For those that are wondering, pay attention to the wind direction on the above charts. You can see the center of the h85 circulation and how the temperatures respond accordingly.
  5. EasternLI
    Just a quick thought that I've had pertaining to the above bolded comments. I haven't had a lot of time to participate on the boards this season thus far, however I have been reading quite a bit. It was discussed several years ago, I believe in an ENSO thread. That the actual sst's and not the anomalies are what we should be looking at for a clearer picture. I haven't seen that discussed this year, but I have to think that it's played at least some role in what you've mentioned above.
  6. EasternLI
    My apologies for dropping in on you fine folks. As far as the bolded is concerned. According to the solar cycle prediction charts which were actually updated last month, it looks like it's going to be a while still before we get to the bottom. I like your posts @frd so I thought this would interest you.
  7. EasternLI
    Have been too busy to post. Was able to grab a max depth measurement yesterday and had exactly 3". So I'm going with that for this event. Which, for the calendar date and my location is pretty damn impressive. Hopefully the start of a busy winter.
  8. EasternLI
    Here's the Upton snow numbers for all who may be interested: https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm
  9. EasternLI
    Weather.us has it. https://weather.us/monthly-charts/euro/usa/anomaly-geopot-500hpa/20181101-0000z.html
  10. EasternLI
  11. EasternLI
    Been doing a lot of swimming this summer, going to miss it. Totally on the same page with darkness.
  12. EasternLI
    I've actually been enjoying the warm and humid summer. I must be getting old.
  13. EasternLI
    Would have preferred not being awoken at 4:30 in the morning, but that was the best storm in years over here.
  14. EasternLI
    Yikes, I just realized that was 35 years ago . That's the one that sparked my interest. Hurricane Gloria a couple years later solidified my interest.
  15. EasternLI
    I can blame the blizzard of '83 for getting me interested.
  16. EasternLI
    Just had a chance to read this. Well done and a great read as always.
  17. EasternLI
    Didn't feel it
  18. EasternLI
  19. EasternLI
    Happy Thanksgiving folks
  20. EasternLI
    I agree with your main point here. It's November, right. The thing is, seeing blocking show up for the end of Nov. like this, is kind of what you want to see in a la nina. The ratter years, for the most part, didn't have it. That's what it's all about right now, at least for me.
  21. EasternLI
    They were.
  22. EasternLI
    Yes... Oh wait you mean the weather.
  23. EasternLI
    Looking like a powerhouse on Goes 16 vis.
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