EasternLI

Sudden stratospheric warming occurs 15-30 days following that. Based upon the observations of those events in the research. That's a really really close match. If one was looking for longer lasting -AO possibilities. The -NAO retrograding through that point, is a very good way to start looking.

Would not change a single feature. NE Canada Ridge, Ural Ridge, Atlantic Low, Sea of Okhotsk Low, Western trough, Vortex passing by Alaska. Excellent.

It's been getting hammered. But still not enough. The end of the month though has potential for a show. The precursor look is there on all guidance. And with an evolving favorable tropical signal. Which is looking good at this time as well btw. It's not the standard situation for sure. Real signs pointing to watch this.

I don't think so. This seems kind of unique. Funky year. I wouldn't compare it to anything. It'll be interesting to look back at it.

Yeah, it'll be interesting too because it's been beat up all November. It's getting beat up by this block. From below, which is unusual. I think it's worth the occasional glance.

I think we do see some of that later on, eventually. But I'm referring to the stratosphere. The Urals ridging is a very good sign for vortex disruption.

Its an ensemble mean. Plus it matches the 00z eps run for a change. So that's not insignificant IMO. I'm not talking any specific events. Just the progression.

Way different than 00z lol.

06z gefs today looking fairly similar to the 00z eps so far. So that's good.

Absolutely loving the resilient ridging near the Urals. That's always a good thing.

I've always liked the potential for the pattern improvement around mid month. I mean, consider the timing with the holidays. But that was just potential last month. We appear on track and I find that pretty phenomenal. Beyond December still holds promise too, but we'll have to see how that goes. First things first. Let's reel in that blocking.

The run ends here, for those interested.

We're basically trending things in the exact direction I'd hoped for all along. But to each their own. The first image is now a beautiful representation of the ssw precursor pattern. The second is when the -NAO retros to west based and sets up as advertised. On the 13th like it has been for days. Too much focus on a couple days of ridging. That's part of a promising pattern for future prospects anyway lol.

I'm 100% fine with the trends we're seeing. I may be in the minority. That se ridge is part of the SSW precursor pattern. The classic looking textbook version of it. It's sort of on all the ensembles now. The NAO retro to west based still looks on track around the 13th. I haven't seen that change. It's before that. The models were rushing things for a bit. If we can see the SSW precursor pattern, which includes the se ridge mind you, for a few days. Still in early December. I'm all for it. It could end up paying large dividends later. All good in my eyes.

Just to elaborate a bit. As discussed last month. La nina with a WQBO acts to keep the MJO out of the Pacific and relatively inactive overall. Respectively. But Kelvin waves are different and are not affected by any of that. So here's the 18z GEFS as a decent example. You can see the constructive interference signal previously mentioned where it gets more amplified. But the signal keeps it moving into the Pacific as well. Right through la nina to boot. Also at a faster pace than the standard MJO would. This is quite a bit different than last year. When we had a real MJO but it was mostly trapped by la nina. Keep in mind, we've done this once already this year.

I don't see any issues with the MJO. That's the constructive interference signal that HM was alluding to in those tweets. We don't have a MJO in the way we did last year. Kelvin waves appear to be doing the work. It's a little different and way more complicated. This is a funky year.

Yes it is. I didn't mind the 12z GEFS either TBH. There can be a storm opportunity when the block first retros to west based with these. I think that's the look we're seeing around 12-15th. Before that it's still evolving IMO. Not ready yet. Better storm chance when the block breaks down. But we're not seeing out that far. Who knows though. We'll see what happens. That'd be my WAG.

I wouldn't mind the short lived hostile Pacific look emerging. In fact, I'd probably even welcome it. If it ends up with this general look. It's not perfect. Could use a bit more Ural ridging. Maybe a bit more AK trough but halfway decent alignment.

Yes, I realize it's an OP run out at day 10. But it's another instance of the ssw precursor pattern look. Not terribly dissimilar from when I posted it from the GEFS the other day. IF we happen to transit through a look similar to this. You would look for that potential 15-30 days later. That's the lag time for this pattern. It's just another halfway decent example for now. Pretty cool to see it again though. Figured I'd mention it.

Windswept downpours are wild here

When you see a 200mb VP anomalies chart for the month of November. During a La nina. This is pretty much exactly what you would wish for. The La Nina related MC forcing was mostly, not all, but mostly in the SH. But by South America (very difficult to do in la nina) it was not. It was more NH. So it appears to have dominated accordingly based on the upcoming pattern we're faced with. So for the lead in of any year, that's all you could ever ask for as far as I can tell. According to these charts anyway. Yes theres certainly other factors. A lot of the other factors aren't too shabby either. So hey, we'll see where it takes us.

We haven't had anything like this in many years. Perhaps ever if it achieves record status. Trend arrow is definitely favorable. We've even seen some precursors. Just have to sit back and watch the show

I'll see you that, and raise you this. Remember last years feedback loop?

Yeah, big fan of this year's pattern timing. It was potential before. But still looking on track. Nice

This is the end of it. There's actually a strong shortwave visible just passing the rockies. You can follow it on previous panels. Hence the lower heights.