EasternLI

That's a strong -NAO!!

That's a 4+ standard deviation Greenland ridge after day 10 on an ensemble mean. That's super impressive. Wow

From what I've read, you really want to see a cold shot in the 2nd half of November. That's seems to be an important piece of the puzzle. What's interesting about that is, we've done that as well this year with the record -EPO episode.

Winter is coming.

We're in about as good of shape as was humanly possible for this December currently IMO. As per ensembles (EPS+GEFS). Steady as she goes. Tropical convection layout starting to look more favorable again towards the end of these runs too now. I'm on the hunt for heavy polar vortex damage too. Resulting in a protracted period of -AO. That's not off the table yet either. Not sure what else one would like to see at the end of any November. This year is interesting and it'll be fun to see what happens.

Little PNA spike emerging on this 6z GEFS. With -NAO in place. It's subtle, but it's there on this panel. Watch that. This is just an insane looking panel tbh.

No, that's fantastic news if that plays out. Because it could have very easily just been stuck in phase 3 this year with the setup. Like qbow and La Nina likes to do. Getting into the Pacific is always tremendously better. Phase 3 is a killer on many levels.

Some entertaining runs in the arctic on the 12z gfs + gefs today again. Sweet. Keep them coming.

The NAO is important to see because without it this winter would be shot. I'd have a whole team of punters lol

Didn't quite get there all the way. But left behind this pattern. Which is still favorable for further damage to it anyway. That was an entertaining run. No idea beyond day 10 anymore if that's a possibility now.

Nah, it is what it is can't get mad at it. Let's just gin up an old fashioned DC to Boston burial. Like the old days

18z Gefs are trying to do it too now.

Urals ridge is getting really interesting now. That's something that starts to unfold between now and day 6. Not day 10+. 18z GFS just went nuts with it again. So that's the 2nd run in a row and the 12z Euro was very close. The GFS nukes the polar vortex as a result. 2 runs in a row now. Also of note, this loosely matches the expected response from the paper I posted too. So maybe there's something here. That's also really cool to see on a model now. Felt a post about this was in order. Eyes peeled on this thing now.

Well it's complicated and even ensembles are struggling lately. You see how the mjo is on the move in that photo. But you can also see the residual stuff hanging out by the MC and also near South America throughout the whole run. So you can end up with a mash-up pattern with competing influences. I think bluewave has mentioned that before too. It also needs to be strong enough to force anything. Sometimes it isn't. So increased caution is suggested with these charts this particular year. But here's the link for the Italian site where I find them you can check it out. https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Was just checking out the MJO from that run. But the biggest question, for me personally, is what happens beyond the end of these runs.

12z Eps is -NAO happy today in the extended.

That's also a nice look if you ultimately wish to do harm to the PV. I like it.

If someone asked me if I'm ok to trade a early December cold shot. For a chance of something possibly better a little later. I'm going to say yes to that 100% of the time. Climo is trash in early December anyway. I was actually ready to punt this whole winter totally back in the summer. When looking at things. But right now? The punter is cut and this is interesting.

Not necessarily. It's just the way eps and gefs are looking currently and with some agreement. Still a lot of question marks. It's an interesting set of circumstances to ponder though.

Yup, mjo is going to pass the MC again. Beyond that, 2nd half of December, it's going to continue to the west pacific again. Similarly to how it already has this fall. I'm a big fan of that potential timing. But the way the 500mb NH pattern is also evolving on ensembles lately, is looking to be towards one that could legit heavily damage the PV. That MJO pass has the potential to do real damage. To me, the situation is incredibly interesting. None of that is in any reliable timeframe currently. So we continue to watch with great interest moving forward.

Happy Thanksgiving December SSW could, theoretically, offer up a -AO winter. Instead of when it happens in February and spring is ruined. We'll see what happens. Many question marks but really interesting. I remember reading somewhere how, should one occur, la nina and WQBO favors downward coupling too. Having trouble finding that paper right now though.