EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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Yeah, big fan of this year's pattern timing. It was potential before. But still looking on track. Nice
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This is the end of it. There's actually a strong shortwave visible just passing the rockies. You can follow it on previous panels. Hence the lower heights.
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I'd think that would be favored actually. When you see the 500mb blocking, reflecting itself all the way up to 10mb. This is something we just do not see very often.
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This is actually a pretty textbook SSW precursor pattern on the 18z GEFS. May not go exactly like this, but that's what this is.
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That's wild.
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Timeframe of the evolution remains consistent. Which is nice to see.
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The blocking is happening. That's not really too much in doubt anymore I think. Part of that process has already started. I understand the caution of some though too. There's a lot of moving parts.
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12z eps end of the run
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I'm starting to think the vortex may be lucky to make it through December... If we do really travel down that path.
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I actually like the look this year better, should it continue to stay similar. With that sea of Okhotsk low staying in much closer proximity to Alaska instead of further west like 2010 did. Keeping it more like we're seeing currently, would increase the chance of strat shenanigans at some point. More so than the other look, as nice as it is. That would be for longer term prospects, of course. Fingers crossed.
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The cool thing is, as it looks currently. The MJO is gearing up for a potential favorable run beyond all of this. Which means there's more potential for damage to the vortex in it's future. Beyond this stuff I'm showing now.
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Now, I may be viewing matters through a different lens than others at this current moment in time. Models are seeing this anomalous blocking all the way up to 10mb. It's a thorn in the side of the vortex. So I say we crank up a record breaking block. Then go from there.
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The runs that whiffed on that sorta messed up everything. But I haven't seen that anymore since then.
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This EPO ridge must link with that NAO ridge to shove the trough east like it is doing. That looks like a critical action on some runs I've seen. If this west coast trough at this timeframe is the concern. But that's looking better and better as we get closer anyway thus far. And it's inside day 10 now.
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Oh I meant just start looking at things around then. Not looking for anything to start then lol
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Well I'm not looking for snow quite yet. Let's get a good foundation set first. Maybe after the 10th or so?
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Everywhere is cold after the 8th verbatim.
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Ends here
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That's a strong -NAO!!
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That's a 4+ standard deviation Greenland ridge after day 10 on an ensemble mean. That's super impressive. Wow
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From what I've read, you really want to see a cold shot in the 2nd half of November. That's seems to be an important piece of the puzzle. What's interesting about that is, we've done that as well this year with the record -EPO episode.
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Winter is coming.
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We're in about as good of shape as was humanly possible for this December currently IMO. As per ensembles (EPS+GEFS). Steady as she goes. Tropical convection layout starting to look more favorable again towards the end of these runs too now. I'm on the hunt for heavy polar vortex damage too. Resulting in a protracted period of -AO. That's not off the table yet either. Not sure what else one would like to see at the end of any November. This year is interesting and it'll be fun to see what happens.
