EasternLI

Canadian ensembles have something out there as well. It's possible to squeeze something in if we get the favorable PNA spike. Just from a pattern point of view. Gotta keep an eye on it.

Gefs isn't too bad either TBH.

EPS may be starting to get interested in the 14th. This is the best look it's had thus far for that period from what I've seen. Let's gin up some more support.

Definitely did in the tropics this run. Much more of the gefs type looks there among the individual members then there have been at 12z. I think it makes sense too, with what the gefs is doing. According to the sst layout currently anyway.

Yeah I see what you mean. I actually think the gefs has done fairly well this year in the tropics. Euro guidance can get overamped sometimes late. I've seen it happen a couple times this season.

Those RMM charts don't tell the whole story. Careful with those.

Eps is still getting a little crazy with forcing near Indonesia late in the runs. Gefs isn't really doing that. Not nearly as dramatic at least. Holds on to the split forcing look longer. Lots of spread amongst the eps members with this. With some really going overboard still in that area. But also some others more gefs like. It'll be interesting to see what happens there. I'm pretty confident the weeklies will be a torch today. Being based on the 00z eps. Still low confidence for end of the month for me.

It's nice to see the gfs and euro showing something for that timeframe. At least both can "see" a possibility. CMC tried to do something but made a mess of it. Promising.

I like that period for some sort of storm. Mentioned it the other day. Pv lobe pulled away, PNA spike. Keep an eye on that.

EPS had a select few members getting a little crazy around Indonesia very late. Here's one example of that below. I suspect this is overdone, but will have to watch. More of some sort of split forcing looks on many others. This is when I'm uncomfortable, until gefs and eps are on the same page. Wondering if it has something to do with the tropical systems in the IO and how they're ultimately treated. Not sure. Tricky timeframe for now.

00z href fram was gross. Stay safe out there.

Truth be told, I would welcome a warm 2nd half. Just not a lot of confidence yet how that timeframe shakes out. Need to wait it out a bit longer.

That's cool. You already put away the winter attire. Nothing to worry about then.

Not necessarily. That's tropical stuff not 500mb anomalies. Have to be careful there. Especially later in the period. Tropical convection is the most complicated parameter on modeling. Best to just monitor trends. I wouldn't read too much into those RMM charts right now either. If we're dealing with competing areas of forcing.

Yeah, was just looking through that stuff from 00z. That's exactly what it looks like. Something like that. Will have to keep an eye on that.

Some similarities. Remember too that the others go out just a little bit further. Have to keep an eye on that TPV and where it goes beyond this. Something to look for on future runs.

Beyond mid month is still questionable. I personally wouldn't feel good about any solution until we have decent agreement between eps and gefs. Going to have to watch that TPV and what that does too.

WAG but the 14-16th period looks interesting. Based on the big picture view. With a TPV lobe pulling out and some sort of transient PNA spike.

It's signaling a retrograde towards the very end. Seems due to some increased phase 2 activity from the looks of the tropical stuff. That can be a storm signal too. Gotta watch that. There could be something lurking out there before then like brooklynwx99 is saying. Afterwards, It's heading in this direction gradually I think. At least on today's edition.

Here's the 10-15 loop.

Here's a great illustration of what happened in 2015. Versus what occurred in December of this season. In a single image from the following paper. But it's also important to keep in mind other factors which may be present. One such example could be the PDO. Which was positive in 2015. Or the QBO. Nothing works in a vacuum. It's all interconnected. That's also important. It can get really extremely complicated. That's what makes seasonal forecasting so very difficult to this day. This image shows what effects could be expected from 2 different areas of focus via tropical convection. You can see how different the effects can be just from some subtle difference in location. Because of the rossby waves originating from these events. Indonesian activity drives a -PNA. Which we witnessed in December, in an anomalous way. However, move that just a bit east into the west/central Pacific. You see something like a 2015. Which is what happened that season. Hope this can be somewhat helpful. This is why we look to the MJO for clues. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-49449-7

Agreed 100%. It's proving beneficial to look at things from a broader perspective. Instead of focusing very heavily on ENSO SSTs alone. Which has been the go to main method for many years. It's helpful to look a little more closely and keep an open mind in recent years. Older analogs have become less useful, which has been discussed. Keeping track of those marine heatwaves is going to be important moving forward.

I must admit. This is all sort of why I saw this season as potentially pretty interesting back in late November. With the MJO possibility initiating the mixing up the pattern. Just not to this degree we appear to be witnessing. I'm very pleased to see these thoughts working out better than expected. It's an incredible flip from the December mess. Nice paper too, a rather fascinating season continues.

Not concerned. You set up something like that. Something will pop up I'd think at some point. It's a far cry from what we were thinking not very long ago. February is not canceled this year.