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EasternLI

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Everything posted by EasternLI

  1. EasternLI
    No it's not.
  2. EasternLI
    Absolutely epic band starting to take shape on radar in Suffolk.
  3. EasternLI
    Judging by radar. Suffolk gets smoked.
  4. EasternLI
    No idea how I'm going to measure this. It's snowing sideways.
  5. EasternLI
    Good morning to you!!
  6. EasternLI
    Hrrr slowly working on consolidating that low earlier too. Comparing last 3 runs.
  7. EasternLI
    Light snow here with a dusting. Let's do this. 30F
  8. EasternLI
    It very well could be. That was never off the table really. It's just such a sensitive situation. Upper air support has argued that it should be. Can it overwhelm the convection? That's the question. It's possible.
  9. EasternLI
    The stupid thing should be west with a look like this.
  10. EasternLI
    Brutal situation for modeling. If this thing fails. We could have a lot of the sne crew wash ashore after leaping into the sound.
  11. EasternLI
    The gfs was not even close with this evolution. What's the final outcome going to be anyway? It hasn't happened yet. Curious to see how the 18z euro handles this too.
  12. EasternLI
    Been busy today ftl. 12z euro just illustrates how complicated the setup is. It could play out like that. There were some eps members at 00z that did something similar. It could also not play out like that. This is really a nowcast event if there ever was one. Something to monitor is that convection in the south when it gets going. Models in general struggle with that. Maybe trends on the short term CAMs can help. No idea.
  13. EasternLI
    Yeah, agree with that. Noticed the same on some of these runs. It was a hair away from doing that anyway.
  14. EasternLI
    Yeah, not sure about the double barrel thing. We may not know how that plays out until it's happening. Could be real. Eps had some of those. But also a lot that didn't. That's challenging.
  15. EasternLI
    Nammy looks a hair more amped then 06z early on. Let's see how it goes.
  16. EasternLI
    I take these light snow obs as a good omen... Models that didn't have that had the worse solutions. Just a thought.
  17. EasternLI
    Exactly. This is going to be an amazing experience either way for me. It's not often something like this comes around. I hope everyone gets crushed.
  18. EasternLI
    06 EPS is stunning.
  19. EasternLI
    This looks like a beast. Expect surprises. I don't even care to jack. Just wind this sucker up and get as many people involved as possible. Will be amazing to witness a good old fashioned stemwinder.
  20. EasternLI
    I highly doubt that happens in this situation. This isn't a normal noreaster setup. It's being ingested into the northern stream. So it's maxing out on closest approach. When that happens, the rain snow line is pinned next to the low. But it also helps energize the system. Hence the high potential. We would just get smoked out here by a coastal front while further west got mid level dynamics.
  21. EasternLI
    Have no idea. But this is going to be wild to watch unfold either way.
  22. EasternLI
    Some of the models showed that light snow starting, may not really stop. Just get heavier later. That could be possible and is a hallmark of the larger events too.
  23. EasternLI
    Yeah, the ensembles have been hinting that we could get more chances in February too
  24. EasternLI
    Yeah, I totally get it. I guess I just always realized that this was a pattern change event. So the warmup following was expected in my view.
  25. EasternLI
    2" Liquid equivalent in Suffolk. At least 1" to the city. LFG.
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