The low is kind of on a blob of convection. Wonder if that's real. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. If it isn't, would be a better solution I think.
It's got a double barrel low look to it. With some vorticity running out in front of the main trough. The trough is a bit broad. It delayed the capture a little bit. Would be nice to see a tighter/sharper trough. Let's see what else today brings.
Yeah, that wasn't as bad as 12z. Hopefully we stop the bleeding. Then gradually improve tomorrow and Friday? Not out of the question. Wouldn't take a lot.
Not sold on that yet. I could be on board tomorrow though depending on how this shakes out. Not sold on this failing completely either. Thinking these unfavorable trends will stabilize and possibly some better trends tomorrow. We'll see. Delicate setup for this.
Now if that vort doesn't get held back as much. You can quickly get these bigger storm solutions showing back up in a hurry too. Something to keep in mind.
No. The energy is hanging back in the SW messing up the phase. So the storm doesn't get a chance to amplify on the east coast. Heights stay flatter in the east and everything happens too late. If at all. We want the energy in the SW to be more progressive. We're going the other direction right now with that feature.
This is what happens when the vort digs into the SW too much. It messes up the phase. Everything becomes more progressive. That could ruin this whole thing. Northern stream is ready to play ball. But it can't do it all alone.