EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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It does look like the ssw is going to actually go off. Meeting the technical wind reversal definition. In addition to the eps, the GEFS is now 100% for the past few runs now. Will be interesting to see how/if it works with the troposphere following this. Be curious to see some cross sections on what is happening once this gets underway. Never can be certain with these things but worth keeping tabs on. It's something to watch at least. Hope everyone enjoys this very nice mild Friday on tap.
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Well, it can't get much worse I don't hate la nina. Some of them can be good. This one just has it all wrong lol. Tired of it though, I welcome a change.
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Here's a great example of why extreme caution is always needed with those charts. If we look at what is actually occurring on the model. We can see the MJO wave moving right along. However, we can also see the warm pool convection associated with la nina never fades away enough as this is occurring. This renders the whole thing less effective. This is the destructive interference we sometimes mention. We'd really want something strong enough to fully disrupt that in order for more meaningful changes. Something we just haven't seen much this year. So that forecast crashing into the COD is really trying to say it's retaining its dominance in spite of the MJO. Which is a problem for us this year. That positioning right there is the anchor for a western trough. So we end up stuck with that as much as we are. Now, let's shift that thing closer to the central Pacific next year hopefully. Then you get a western ridge instead.
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Not sold yet on a technical ssw even occurring. Some warming, sure, but the gefs seems to have backed down on wind reversal today at 00z. Plus, the 06z run now only has 60% of the members on board with it. So it's still possible it doesn't even occur this time either. I realize the eps weeklies were bullish yesterday. However, I'd prefer to see total agreement. Not going the other direction. Especially as we're getting inside of day 10 now. You'd really want to see a strong event too in hopes of impacting where it matters. This is just uninspiring so far IMO. I also agree with the sentiment that even if one should occur, it doesn't necessarily have to matter for us. This is always the case and should be baked into any thinking about this topic any year.
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The purpose of the long range pattern discussions is not to identify any individual storm systems. I personally think it's a misinterpretation to think of it in that way. You can get snow events in a bad pattern. Nobody has said that can't happen. I certainly haven't. The thing is, favorable longwave patterns offer an easier path to accomplish the certain combinations of synoptic features we're all in search of. That is the reason why they are often discussed. Not to identify anything specific. At least it shouldn't be. It's simply an attempt to identify windows where it's easier to find something specific. It's really two separate things, in my view.
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0F IMBY currently. That's impressive here on CAA. Usually that happens with rad cooling here. Yesterdays hrrr did alright locally here. Euro too.
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-1F at the Southold mesonet.
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Found it just like that on the 12z eps today
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Some fitting symbolism there. Good job e20...
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Speaking of the water vapor from the volcano. The nasa site is nice for checking on that. Looks like it has spread into the NH. While working it's way higher in altitude slowly. Looks like that is still continuing also. I have no idea what occurs due to this? It's clearly much larger than anything else on those charts. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#merrau
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There is actually something interesting about those conditions. Not for this season, but next year. Perhaps quite interesting, but that's TBD. I was curious about the state of the Pacific. So I re-read the following paper over the weekend. Then decided to check the state of affairs. If you look at the status of the sub surface. Plus, the forecast 850 winds. It was a little surprising to me, to discover it's a pretty damn good match to EOF2 from this paper. EOF2 is one of the leading modes of modoki el nino. EOF1 would be the classic east based variety. It's nothing like that one so far. Found that to be pretty interesting. Thought perhaps you would too. Leading modes of tropical Pacific subsurface ocean temperature and associations with two types of El Niño https://www.nature.com/articles/srep42371
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Woodchuck is just another name for groundhog. I like groundchuck though lol
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It's still something that's really being figured out in the research sector. General idea currently is that the stronger it is the faster it would happen. But it's variable and sometimes there are no surface effects at all. Other times, it happens very quickly. This a topic that is still being studied. Only recently has a slightly better understanding of this begun to take shape. As far as I'm aware.
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Worth mentioning that the strat is still trending. With 61% of gefs members on the 00z now having a ssw. Which is higher than I ever saw at any point during this last attempt. Just an observation this morning.
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Pretty much, yeah. That's a good way to explain it. I'd just add, the reason why la nina is often better in early winter. Is because la nina phases can be ok in early winter. Because wavelengths are different. But later winter, forget about it. I'm interested about next year. QBOE is on deck also.
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That is extremely unlikely. Enso neutral is still a possibility. El nino is favored. However we just can't be certain of anything just yet. Easily get burned at this time of year making assumptions with enso. That much I'm certain of.
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I'd have to read up on that. I have a hunch but I'm not sure. I'm not even sure if that's known. I'm going to look into this.
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We'll have to wait until spring plays out to see where we are with enso. There's a spring forecast barrier we need to get through to have a better idea how that looks.
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I'd buy a cold flip if there was a solid reason to. Right now, there's all the reason to buy a torch. So it makes sense tbh.
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No worries, it'll be November 180th before you know it!
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It's just plain hard to get good looks in a la nina February any way you slice it. Unless, blocking. The way I see it, there's also some constructive interference from the MJO with la nina just prior to that. So there it is. West gets the trough, as you can see by the cold there. We ridge. Beyond that, it's a little iffy to me. The MJO might want to keep it moving. But also, the American guidance is saying the strat might need to be watched again now. Which may add uncertainty beyond that. You just know that one will go off too, just in time to ruin spring
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I totally buy the eps furnace after the briefest arctic shot known to man. The end of the 00z has a real roasting in progress.
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I can only claim a trace over here today. Grass whitened with a Swiss cheese coating. Nothing on any reliable measuring surface on the ground. Still sitting with the 0.4" here from December here as far as I'm concerned.
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Gotcha, and that's fair enough. Will be interesting to see what happens. I still have questions about March anyway.
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I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina.
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