Jump to content

yoda

Members
  • Posts

    54,815
  • Joined

Everything posted by yoda

  1. And look what he became lol
  2. The rain? LWX AFD mentioned that could happen at the start
  3. Thank you for that... I will try and find it so I can read up on it
  4. Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence? Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it @csnavywx @WxUSAF
  5. LWX has a great and awesomesauce disco this afternoon... hats off to them. Well written as well .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ...SLIGHT TO ENHANCED WINTER STORM THREAT AS MAJOR STORM LURKS OFFSHORE... Overview... The evolving large scale weather/jet stream pattern across the U.S. as well as latest model guidance continue to suggest the potential of a major, rapidly deepening area of low pressure moving northward off the East Coast Friday into Saturday. Although the brunt of the storm looks to be headed for New England, the Mid-Atlantic region will be on the western periphery of the rather large system resulting in an increasing likelihood of accumulating snow. Uncertainty remains in the all important details, and users are encouraged to focus on the broader "low-end" and "high-end" potential snowfall amounts at this time range, with the caveat that the situation is still evolving, the storm has yet to form, and continued variability is likely in the "expected" snowfall amounts as finer scale details come into clearer focus over the next couple of days. For the latest forecast details, please visit: www.weather.gov/lwx/winter. Technical summary... A mid-level jet max and weak isentropic lift well ahead of the large scale trough will impinge on the Allegheny Front beginning as early as shortly after sundown Thursday. At least scattered snow shower activity is anticipated as a result Thursday night over favored upslope areas, with a couple of inches possible mainly along western facing ridges through daybreak Friday. This axis of lift will slip slowly southward and eastward during the day Friday while the upper trough sharpens across the TN/OH Valley. The trough will have 3 embedded shortwaves within it: a shortwave pivoting from SE MO to E KY, a southern stream vorticity ribbon arcing back through the ArkLaMiss to TX, and a trailing northern stream shortwave diving into the upper Great Lakes. It appears the trailing vorticity ribbon will become ingested in the main shortwave trough, phasing sufficiently to result in strong surface cyclogenesis in a PVA regime ahead of the trough as it interacts with a baroclinic zone near the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the trailing northern stream shortwave likely also becomes infused into the large trough, aided in part by very transient/weak blocking from the Arctic high retreating off through the Canadian Maritimes. As all of these pieces conjoin, rapidly deepening surface low pressure will track northward off the Eastern Seaboard. The question is exactly how far offshore the low tracks. A consensus of the latest model/ensemble data as well as the background UA pattern suggest a low track from about 150 miles east of the Outer Banks of NC to just outside (SE of) the 40 N/70 W benchmark off the New England coast. With the lack of a more substantial downstream block over the North Atlantic, the low is more likely to track far enough offshore and deepen far enough to the east and north that the heaviest band of snow would setup toward the NJ/New England coast, with the northwestern edge setting up over southern MD and the Eastern Shore. The infamous gradient between lighter and heavier snowfall may end up near the I-95 corridor, and thus bears a very close watch. Otherwise, most of the accumulating snowfall for the majority of the area will come from the upper trough axis itself. Snow may mix with rain at the onset for lower elevations east of I-81 and south of I-70 Friday afternoon due to boundary layer temperatures progged into the mid to upper 30s. Upslope enhancement over the higher terrain will likely result in locally higher amounts over the Alleghenies. One thing to note, despite an overall relatively lighter expected snowfall across the majority of the area, the overall pattern somewhat resembles that of a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event), where moisture from an intense, distant (offshore) low interacts with a mid- level frontal zone. This may result in a band of enhanced snowfall as hinted at in some runs of higher resolution guidance, but certainty on its magnitude and placement is low at this time. Of greater certainty is increasing winds and plunging temperatures as the low lifts out toward the Northeast heading into Saturday. Dangerously cold wind chills are likely by Saturday evening, and blowing snow is possible as winds increase. Snow may linger in the I-95 corridor through Saturday morning depending on the evolution of the offshore low, but dry conditions should return areawide east of the Allegheny Front by nightfall.
  6. You and I have known each other for years lol... even though we haven't talked much. I think I used to Aol IM you when severe threats came up lol Or FB message you lol
  7. I'm trying to make us happy darn it! Euro, you better hold lol
  8. The Euro is going to nudge west from its 06z run and pull everyone back in.
  9. I liked it... wanted more... but I'll take it. Would put me over climo
  10. What.... you didn't like the EUROing on the 06z run?
  11. @WxUSAF had a good post on that earlier this morning
  12. 4" line on 06z EPS pretty much runs i95 corridor from BWI to EZF
  13. If the trough were to go negative a tad earlier and the phase a tad earlier, could we get some of those bigger amounts east of the Bay back over to us? Or is it too late for that?
  14. Same... I'd take 2-3". But the pull for more... more snow... the Dark Side that is. Resist its pull, I cannot
×
×
  • Create New...