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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes. ...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southeast Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 857 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 IAC099-153-270230- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-240427T0230Z/ Polk IA-Jasper IA- 857 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES... At 857 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Pleasant Hill, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Des Moines, Altoona, Pleasant Hill, Bondurant, Adventureland Amusement Park, and Prairie Meadows around 900 PM CDT. Mitchellville around 905 PM CDT. Valeria around 915 PM CDT. Colfax around 920 PM CDT. Mingo around 925 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mingo, Valeria, and Runnells. This includes the following highways... Interstate 80 between mile markers 140 and 155. Interstate 235 between mile markers 10 and 12. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Crosby told me he was trying to get a Monday morning time so we could include Ovechkin

Lol Capitals. True, made the playoffs, but your offense sucks

McCarthy from Michigan it is for you guys

@Kmlwx Afternoon disco from LWX highlights it already A true tease to Summer arrives Sunday-Tuesday of next week as strong upper level ridging off builds over the mId-Atlantic region. With strong surface high pressure off the NC coast an ample supply of warm air advection will surge our way boosting temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s Sunday and potentially pushing toward 90 degrees in some locations early next week. These temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late April standards. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and 60s. The ridge begins to buckle Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The front will bring renewed chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. With that said, severe weather could become a possibility given the well above normal temperatures and modest dynamics Tuesday afternoon and evening as the front passes. CIPS analogues and the CSU Learning Machine probabilities continue to highlight this potential 7 days out especially in areas east of I-81. We`ll continue to monitor this threat and see how it evolves over the coming days ahead.

Looks like Tuesday maybe our next chance for a few strong to severe storms

Orioles have called up Kjerstad https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/orioles-promote-heston-kjerstad-top-prospect.html

Mid 80s next Monday gets the hot designation in the zones? Because of near record high potential?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

Interesting

Looks like everyone but Calvert and St. Mary's gets at least a frost advisory for tonight

SPC 1300z OTLK is MRGL for most of LWX CWA for 5% wind Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated.

Big Flyers fan unfortunately tomorrow

The Germantown storms were too far SW?

Welp, looks like I got a rock today

I think we easily verified the watch box today

Rotation also on that storm

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0315 PM Hail 1 E Falls Church 38.89N 77.16W 04/15/2024 M1.25 inch Arlington VA NWS Employee NWS Employee reported half dollar sized hail. && Event Number LWX2403045

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0321 PM Hail Falls Church 38.89N 77.18W 04/15/2024 M1.00 inch City of Falls Chur VA Trained Spotter A trained spotter reported 1 inch hail near the 400 block of W Broad St in Falls Church. && Event Number LWX2403047 Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 325 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0318 PM Hail Vienna 38.90N 77.25W 04/15/2024 M1.00 inch Fairfax VA Amateur Radio && Event Number LWX2403046

@MN Transplant guess this was just north of you? Emergency management and NWS employees report half dollar size hail in Falls Church per LSR

Don't see this either everyday in our region - 3pm mid-level lapse rates

Warrenton cell just went severe