yoda

Last chance saloon tomorrow night into Thursday?

00z Euro at 240 looked interesting

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 VAZ025>027-029-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501-502-505-506-212215- /O.EXT.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T0300Z-210923T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Mount Storm, Sugar Grove, Woodstock, Petersburg, Charlottesville, Luray, Moorefield, Harrisonburg, Staunton, New Market, Shenandoah, Hightown, Bayard, Waynesboro, Mount Jackson, Stuarts Draft, Riverton, Big Meadows, Franklin, Oak Flat, Monterey, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Ruddle, Brandywine, Strasburg, Stanley, and Lovingston 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * Portions of Virginia and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas: in Virginia, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Eastern Highland, Greene, Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Western Highland. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy, Western Grant and Western Pendleton. * From this evening through Thursday morning. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday morning across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, widespread rainfall amounts of three to five inches are expected by Thursday morning. However, localized amounts could exceed that, especially along the ridges. Flash flooding is possible.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 MDZ001-003-004-501-502-VAZ028-030-031-039-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-503- 504-212215- /O.EXB.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T1200Z-210923T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Shepherdstown, Purcellville, Charles Town, Cumberland, Winchester, Romney, Martinsburg, Keyser, Ballenger Creek, Berryville, Antioch, Front Royal, Russelldale, Grantsville, Frederick, Hagerstown, Mountain Lake Park, Frostburg, Fort Ashby, Elk Garden, New Creek, Madison, Paw Paw, Washington, Headsville, Warrenton, Oakland, and Ridgeville 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia, including the following areas: in Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD, Garrett and Washington. In Virginia, Clarke, Frederick VA, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Rappahannock, Warren and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Jefferson, Morgan and Western Mineral. * From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday morning across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, widespread rainfall amounts of two to four inches are expected by Thursday morning. However, localized amounts could exceed that, especially along the ridges. Flash flooding is possible.

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 304 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 VAZ025>027-029-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501-502-505-506-211515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T0300Z-210922T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Mount Storm, Sugar Grove, Woodstock, Petersburg, Charlottesville, Luray, Moorefield, Harrisonburg, Staunton, New Market, Shenandoah, Hightown, Bayard, Waynesboro, Mount Jackson, Stuarts Draft, Riverton, Big Meadows, Franklin, Oak Flat, Monterey, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Ruddle, Brandywine, Strasburg, Stanley, and Lovingston 304 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Virginia and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas: in Virginia, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Eastern Highland, Greene, Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Western Highland. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy, Western Grant and Western Pendleton. * From this evening through Wednesday morning. * Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, expecting an inch or two of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This could lead to instances of flash flooding.

Into NF most likely

Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds. With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 36.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 71.8W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches

And PT tomorrow night lol

So you have chosen... suppression

This upcoming Thursday morning looks very nice on the 06z GFS... widespread upper 40s to low 50s

Ugh, pouring rain again I wish this was winter

Huge outflow boundary extending from Montgomery County in MD to near Fauquier County in VA on Radarscope

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern District of Columbia... Arlington County in northern Virginia... East Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Alexandria... Annandale... Springfield... Falls Church... Rosslyn... Crystal City... Reagan National Airport... Lincolnia... Lake Barcroft... Ballston... Seven Corners... Barcroft... Baileys Crossroads... Westover... Cherrydale... Rock Creek... Bolling Air Force...

Almost looks like the storms merger into a hook near Springfield lol

00z EURO says maybe some real fall weather by Day 10... below 0C 850s in the N Plains as a nice trough comes in 06z GFS says lulz nice try for any real fall weather till the very end of the run

Trying to. Been on hold with the IRS for the past hour. I paid my taxes late (it was like $200 -- I hadn't gotten one of my stimulus payments when I did my taxes way back in February when you could first start doing them, and I got a refund of like 300 dollars... 2 months later and the IRS was like nope, nice try, here's what you really owe -- I had finally gotten my last stimulus check by then.) Anyway, I forgot to pay... so I did last month online and took screenshots and all. Got a letter today saying I hadn't paid yet and I owed money still. I am like hol' up no sir... so waiting with all my info to talk to an actual person.

@weatherwiz You chasing today? 5% tor up

0z EPS was yucky. 594 DM heights over the region days 7-10

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 945 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored offshore through much of the week. A backdoor cold front will approach from Pennsylvania tonight, then retreat northward as a warm front Tuesday. Low pressure may develop near the Carolina coast Thursday into Friday as a weakening cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Moderately to heavy dense smoke aloft will obscure skies today per latest HRRR vertically integrated smoke output. This will continue to impact sfc temperatures today and have undercut guidance for high temperatures today. Used the 10th percentile from the NBM. A strong elevated mixed layer with 700 mb temps near 13C was seen on the 13/12Z and 13/00Z IAD upper air launches, as well as on the 0555Z NUCAPS pass just offshore. Nearly 9 C/km in the elevated mixed layer is not a very common observation over the eastern U.S. However, the warmer low-levels will inhibit surface-based convection with 107 degrees temperatures necessary to achieve this.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Radar data from Brownsville shows that the center of Nicholas is on the southwestern side of a large area of deep convection over the western Gulf of Mexico. While southwesterly shear continues to affect the storm, the radar presentation has recently improved, with what could be the start of a partial eyewall forming in the northern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level winds of 59 kt, believable SFMR values up to 50 kt, along with radar winds at 5000 ft near 60 kt. The storm is moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. Nicholas is forecast to turn northward soon into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The track prediction is only nudged slightly westward from the previous one through landfall, consistent with recent model guidance. Thereafter, there isn't good agreement among the models on how quickly the tropical cyclone will move northeastward out of Texas. Generally the models are faster this cycle, which seems believable given the large northward re-formation earlier likely exposing Nicholas to stronger mid-latitude flow. Thus the new NHC forecast is trended faster as well, but remains behind the model consensus. Obviously the forward speed is important to the heavy rainfall forecast, and this trend will be one to watch. Nicholas should continue to strengthen up until landfall due primarily to the very warm Gulf waters and the recent inner-core improvements. Moderate southwesterly shear and some dry air are the main inhibiting factors and will hopefully keep the strengthening in check. However, it is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane before landfall, and that's the reason for the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should weaken after landfall, diminish into a tropical depression within a couple of days, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC wind speed prediction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm today, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning by this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport this afternoon and tonight. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...NICHOLAS FORECAST TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 96.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Freeport Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay * Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

Still 60mph and 1001mb at 5am