yoda

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 442 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Northern North Carolina New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Central and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move off the mountains of western Virginia and southern Pennsylvania, spreading eastward across the watch through the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are possible in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Allentown PA to 20 miles east of Danville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

Mentions isolated significant gusts to 75mph

Watch up until 9pm

It begins BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 135 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... North central Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 134 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 16 miles east of Moorefield, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Millwood Pike, Wardensville, Star Tannery, Capon Bridge, Yellow Spring, High View, Cedar Grove, Stephenson, Delray, Cross Junction, Baker, Gore, Albin, Capon Springs, Mccauley, Gravel Springs, Greenwood, Gainesboro, and High View Manor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Eastern New York Northeast Pennsylvania Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Newport VT to 60 miles southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

Watch up Weak watch at that lol

Head west @weatherwiz Mesoscale Discussion 1363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191644Z - 191815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening towering cumulus across central and eastern New York amid moderate instability in an uncapped environment. As storms deepen, some organization/updraft rotation is expected given moderate shear (50 knots at 3km per ENX VWP). Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Storm coverage may be somewhat isolated early this afternoon as the upper-level trough and surface front remain across the eastern Great Lakes/southern Ontario. Additional storms may arrive this evening as those features move east, but instability will likely be weaker by this time, and the severe threat remains questionable by later this evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... CTP... LAT...LON 41727697 43137600 45007485 45087370 45077361 45037202 44287197 42447221 41197276 40967327 40887370 40797446 40827510 40927587 41117637 41727697 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Kind of surprised we are almost at 1pm and no MCD. There has been initiation out in WV for a bit

That would be high end around here tbh IMO

I thought they had fixed the obs at Baltimore Inner Harbor a year ago or so? Or was it they replaced it? I remember LWX doing something with it 11am obs there is 91 while BWI is 87

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1137 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ053-054-192345- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0017.250619T1900Z-250620T0100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 1137 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Washington DC, portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore, and portions of northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria and Fairfax. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms may produce rainfall rates around 1 inch per hour, with localized totals of 2 to 3 inches possible in areas that receive multiple thunderstorms. This may result in rapid rises on small streams and creeks, and in urban and poor drainage areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information.

Confirmed https://x.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1935725076726329567

What is considered decent? 6.0 to 6.5?

DC to Baltimore metro regions get pummeled on 12z NAM Nest around 20z/21z

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/ Choose our region, HRRR as your model, and then time back to 12z. You'll see a cell go into MD by DC around hour 6. Then slowly move forward to hrs 7 and 8 and you should see it

Updated morning AFD says slightly steeper MLLR on 12z KIAD RAOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity continue today ahead of a potent cold front that looks to cross the region. The front will bring a widespread risk of severe weather to the area later this afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary concerns. Drier and less humid Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. A prolonged period of excessive heat is expected Sunday into the middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of mid morning, satellite and observations revealed a clear sky east of the Appalachians. Steady heating is taking place, eroding CINH. Given abundant low-level moisture in place, moderate to strong instability will build quickly by midday despite modest mid-level lapse rates (though the 12Z KIAD RAOB did reveal an area of steeper lapse rates in the 850-700 hPa layer). Wind observations indicate gusts of 30 to 40 mph over the higher terrain, indicative of an enhanced wind field. Shaping up to be an active afternoon and evening ahead as a potent cold front and upper-level trough swing across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained areas east of US-15 in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather today. Locations further west remain in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5). Regardless of the severe risk zones, all hazards will be on the table with t-storms today. SEVERE THREAT: Storms look to initiate over the mountains between 16-19z/12-3pm ahead of the incoming front. Areas further east will likely see storms develop between 2-4pm/18-20z with a prefrontal shortwave trough pushing through. Convection overall will be scattered mainly along and west of I-81 with conglomeration of supercells and organized line segments/clusters working east toward the Baltimore/DC metro areas between 19-23z/3-7pm. Storms will fuel off of high temperatures in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s with dewpoint factors in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices will climb toward 100 degrees in the metros/east of the Blue Ridge as a result of the increased humidity. SBCAPE values look to surge into the 1500-3000 J/kg during the peak heating period with steepening low-level lapse rates (7+ C/KM). 0-6 km bulk effective shear values will run between 40-50 kts with 0-1 km SRH values around 100 m2/s2. This will amplify the damaging wind threat as well as the potential for an isolated tornado or two across the region, though low-level flow may be somewhat veered to W/SW. Updraft helicity tracks from the HREF illustrate the potential tornado/rotating updraft threat especially east of I-95 and down across southern MD/the northern neck of VA where slight better environmental spin resides (with a potential bay breeze/outflow interaction).

Early morning AFD from LWX on the threats... all hazards possible NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Shaping up to be an active afternoon and evening ahead as a potent cold front and upper level trough swing across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded areas east of US-15 to an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather today. Locations further west remain in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5). Regardless of the severe risk zones, all hazards will be on the table with t-storms today. SEVERE THREAT: Storms look to initiate over the mountains between 16- 19z/12-3pm ahead of the incoming front. Areas further east will likely see storms develop between 2-4pm/18-20z with a prefrontal shortwave trough pushing through. Convection overall will be scattered mainly along and west of I-81 with conglomeration of supercells and organized line segments/clusters working east toward the Baltimore/DC metro areas between 19-23z/3-7pm. Storms will fuel off of high temperatures in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s with dewpoint factors in the upper 60s and low 70s. Heat indices will climb toward 100 degrees in the metros/east of the Blue Ridge as A result of the increased humidity. SBCAPE values look to surge into the 1500-2500 j/kg during the peak heating period with steep low level lapse rates (7+ C/KM). 0-6 km bulk effective shear values will run between 40-60 kts with 0-1 km SRH values around 100-200 m2/s2. This will amplify the damaging wind threat as well as the potential for an isolated tornado or two across the region. Updraft helicity tracks illustrate the potential tornado threat especially east of I-95 and down across southern MD/the northern neck of VA where slight better spin resides (with a potential bay breeze/outflow interaction). FLASH FLOOD THREAT: Outside of the severe threat, instances of flash flooding will remain an issue mainly in the metros/over the terrain. This is largely due in part to some hypersensitivity given the recent rainfall yesterday and really over the last week. FFG guidance for much of the area in the 1, 3, and 6 hr time windows remains less than 1" with PWATS ahead of the front approaching 2". Rain rates of 1-2"+/hr are possible with storms as they pass through. The good news is that storms will be progressive given the amplified shear across the region.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward across the watch area through the afternoon. The strongest cells will be capable of localized damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Philadelphia PA to 55 miles southeast of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1201 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506-526-527- 190000- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0016.250618T1700Z-250619T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1201 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Including the following , District of Columbia, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore, in Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northwest Prince William and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through early this evening. Some thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall with amounts around 1 to 2 inches within an hour. Localized amounts up to 3 inches are possible in the strongest storms. The heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time may lead to rapid rises of creeks and streams out of their banks as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. &&

Borrowed from @WxWatcher007

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1344.html Mesoscale Discussion 1344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181536Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds should increase this afternoon as isolated to scattered thunderstorms form off parts of the Blue Ridge towards coastal New Jersey and Delaware. Area is being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch with uncertainty on overall coverage/intensity for severe gusts. An upgrade to Slight Risk is likely with the 1630Z Day 1 Outlook. DISCUSSION...Initial low-topped convection has been slowly bubbling across far northern VA and the eastern WV Panhandle. Airmass immediately downstream appears uncapped per mesoanalysis and modified 12Z soundings, where surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s. 12Z guidance is consistent in suggesting isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing within a region of enhanced 700-500 mb west-southwesterlies. This should provide sufficient speed shear for a few transient cells with mid-level rotation. With poor mid-level lapse rates, hail magnitudes should remain small. But if stratus across the northern Chesapeake/Delaware Bays vicinity can break up this afternoon, a greater than isolated damaging wind threat may be realized. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39067797 39677750 40097619 40037514 39707417 39247463 38967537 38627599 38577660 38597727 38767779 39067797 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

From this mornings HWO from LWX about the upcoming heat An extended period of excessively hot and humid conditions is expected Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Daily heat indices in the afternoon and evening of 100 to 110 are expected, and up to 115 degrees is possible.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 MDZ003-501-502-509-510-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053-501>508-526- 527-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-172115- /O.EXT.KLWX.FA.A.0015.250617T1800Z-250618T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Central and Eastern Allegany, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany, Washington and Western Garrett, Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Highland, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Warren, Western Highland and Western Loudoun, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers are likely with scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas causing the possibility of locally higher amounts around 3 to 5 inches. Heavy rain in a short period of time may cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004-013-503-504-VAZ054-172115- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0015.250617T2100Z-250618T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Prince Georges-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, the following in Maryland, Montgomery, Frederick MD, and Prince Georges, and the following in northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria. * WHEN...From 5 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers are likely with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas causing the possibility of locally higher amounts around 3 to 5 inches. Heavy rain in a short period of time may cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.