yoda

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1344.html Mesoscale Discussion 1344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181536Z - 181730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds should increase this afternoon as isolated to scattered thunderstorms form off parts of the Blue Ridge towards coastal New Jersey and Delaware. Area is being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch with uncertainty on overall coverage/intensity for severe gusts. An upgrade to Slight Risk is likely with the 1630Z Day 1 Outlook. DISCUSSION...Initial low-topped convection has been slowly bubbling across far northern VA and the eastern WV Panhandle. Airmass immediately downstream appears uncapped per mesoanalysis and modified 12Z soundings, where surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s. 12Z guidance is consistent in suggesting isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing within a region of enhanced 700-500 mb west-southwesterlies. This should provide sufficient speed shear for a few transient cells with mid-level rotation. With poor mid-level lapse rates, hail magnitudes should remain small. But if stratus across the northern Chesapeake/Delaware Bays vicinity can break up this afternoon, a greater than isolated damaging wind threat may be realized. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39067797 39677750 40097619 40037514 39707417 39247463 38967537 38627599 38577660 38597727 38767779 39067797 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

From this mornings HWO from LWX about the upcoming heat An extended period of excessively hot and humid conditions is expected Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Daily heat indices in the afternoon and evening of 100 to 110 are expected, and up to 115 degrees is possible.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 MDZ003-501-502-509-510-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053-501>508-526- 527-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-172115- /O.EXT.KLWX.FA.A.0015.250617T1800Z-250618T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Central and Eastern Allegany, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany, Washington and Western Garrett, Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Highland, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Warren, Western Highland and Western Loudoun, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers are likely with scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas causing the possibility of locally higher amounts around 3 to 5 inches. Heavy rain in a short period of time may cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 DCZ001-MDZ004-013-503-504-VAZ054-172115- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0015.250617T2100Z-250618T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Prince Georges-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 908 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, the following in Maryland, Montgomery, Frederick MD, and Prince Georges, and the following in northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria. * WHEN...From 5 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers are likely with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas causing the possibility of locally higher amounts around 3 to 5 inches. Heavy rain in a short period of time may cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

2% tor added on 1300z SPC OTLK for today

On Monday of next week we will be asking for these days back lol

MRGL/MRGL/SLGT the next 3 days. BTW, what do you consider us as? Northern MA or southern MA? Reading the Day 3 morning disco, they were kind of splitting up the areas for best chance of all hazards severe on Thursday. They said Northern Mid-Atlantic had the better chance for all hazards while southern was more a damaging winds threat

Wiz is headed to SE VT on Thursday afternoon on the 12z NAM

It will be at the very end of its range, but I'm curious to see what the 12z NAM comes up with Thursday afternoon into the evening

Day 5 outlooked from SPC

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 VAC137-177-150245- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-250615T0245Z/ Orange VA-Spotsylvania VA- 1007 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EDT FOR EASTERN ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES... At 1007 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles northwest of Spotsylvania, or 14 miles west of Fredericksburg, moving southeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Lake Of The Woods, Chancellorsville, Cookstown, Parker, and Flat Run. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1011 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary will continue to oscillate over the region through the weekend bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity will be tied to the afternoon and evening hours with flash flooding and locally damaging winds as the primary threats. The front lifts north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday with a strong cold front expected to cross late next week. Temperatures will remain at or above average through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A stationary front is currently positioned over the northern DC metro. This boundary will become the focus for the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and into this evening. Based on morning HiRes guidance, we have expanded the Flood Watch for flash flooding to the NE to include parts of the Baltimore metro along with parts of northern MD and eastern panhandle of WV. The environment this afternoon and into afternoon will be favorable for efficient rainfall with PW`s approaching 2 inches this afternoon and saturated through much atmospheric column. This environment will be favorable for hourly rain rates between 2 to 4 inches being possible with instantaneous rain rates approaching 6 inches per hour possible.

45%... impressive indeed

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 345 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-016-017-504-VAZ037>039-050-051-053>057-502-527-131545- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0011.250613T2200Z-250614T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles-St. Marys-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Orange-Culpeper- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Southern Fauquier-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 345 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Including the following , District of Columbia, including the following areas in Maryland, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Prince Georges and St. Marys, and including the following areas in Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Culpeper, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Orange, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late this afternoon through this evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rainfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches possible within an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas, causing the possibility for locally higher amounts around 4 to 5 inches of rain within a few hours. Heavy rainfall in a short period of time combining with already saturated soils means that creeks and streams may rapidly rise out of their banks along with the potential for flash flooding in urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

90 at DCA at 2pm

Interesting website... never heard or seen it before. What do you think of it?

Mesoscale Discussion 1197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of VA/MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081704Z - 081830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard but a tornado and sporadic hail also are possible. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is develop early this afternoon in a weakly unstable airmass in the vicinity of an effective warm front draped across northern VA toward coastal MD. As additional heating occurs over the Blue Ridge, thunderstorm coverage should increase and storms will move across the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity through the afternoon. Overall instability and midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. However, effective shear around 30-40 kt will support organized cells. Where steeper low-level lapse rates develop amid stronger heating, strong/severe gusts will be possible. Low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced along the warm front, as is evident in the LWX VWP, which shows a mildly enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodograph. Rotating storms interacting with the warm front could pose a risk for a brief tornado or two. The area is being evaluated for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38987851 39297781 39267736 39157695 38847623 38407580 37587544 36967538 36607571 36577610 36557726 36777834 37207889 38027910 38577893 38987851 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

MCD up... 60% chance of Watch

Looks like decent rotation west of Stafford on Radarscope

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Stafford County in northern Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1245 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Stafford, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Stafford around 1250 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Ramoth, Widewater, Aquia, Roseville, Glendie, Garrisonville, Arkendale, Ruby, and Cherry Hill. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3843 7758 3858 7745 3852 7737 3850 7730 3855 7728 3856 7726 3858 7726 3859 7725 3856 7724 3856 7722 3855 7724 3849 7728 3847 7728 3848 7727 3845 7728 3845 7726 3837 7754 TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 233DEG 20KT 3843 7752 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

Tornado Warning Stafford county

Hmmm Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1211 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and Northern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 081610Z - 082210Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue through this afternoon with an expectation that scattered thunderstorms will develop and produce heavier rates. Given the moist and sensitive antecedent conditions, the additional rainfall is likely to result in some runoff problems and flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with regional radar data shows areas of moderate to locally heavy rain falling over portions of western and southwest PA down through the MD/WV Panhandles and into northern VA. This rainfall is being driven by the arrival of a shortwave trough from the OH Valley which is promoting a northwest to southeast corridor of isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing along and just poleward of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward into the region. Meanwhile, solar insolation is seen taking place farther west across central and northern WV and western VA which is allowing for some CU/TCU development over the higher terrain. Surface-based instability is expected to continue to increase going through the afternoon hours, and with convergent flow along the front and orographic forcing over the higher terrain, there should be the development and gradual expansion of some heavier shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. It should be noted that moist low-level southeast flow is expected to become better established into the Blue Ridge this afternoon as well, and this may yield some locally more concentrated areas of convection in these areas. The environment is pretty moist and the 12Z RAOBs at KPIT and KIAD showed 1.42 inch and 1.62 inch PWs respectfully which are at or just above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. This overall environment should favor at least above average rainfall efficiency across the region and especially with some of the forcing that will be occurring this afternoon in the warm layer of the column. Rainfall rates with the instability driven convective elements this afternoon from southwest PA down through northern VA will likely be quite high and capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. The 12Z CAM guidance suggests that some localized rainfall totals by this evening may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches where some of the slower moving cells evolve. Given the wet antecedent conditions and high rainfall rates, isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are likely. Orrison ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1931724389088710750

"Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms look to push across the region this afternoon and evening (between 2-9pm) as a warm front lifts through. The primary threat with storms will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado or two is possible mainly south & east of DC. Have a way to get warning via phone, tv, or computer. #MDwx #VAwx #WVwx #DCwx" From LWX Facebook page posted an hour ago

Warm front must be nearby me... sun and breaks in the clouds here and increasingly humid