yoda

16z HRRR looks to bring in a line of supercells through the i95 corridor between 6pm and 9pm... then rotates in a complex of heavy rain after midnight for N VA/DC/MD

Tornado Watch coming soon for western part of the CWA

Tornado Warnings starting from RLX in S WV

Looks like we should reach into the lower 80s for temps

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with 55-70 mph gusts capable of wind damage extending from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Southeast. The potential for a few tornadoes exists from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. ...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over the OH-TN Valleys with this feature forecast to move into the Mid-Atlantic states/Carolinas by late evening. In response to this shortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move from the KY/WV border east-northeastward along a quasi-stationary front into southeast PA/NJ by evening. A trailing cold front will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepening cyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to be tempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover. As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough develops across the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near the cold front. A mix of cells and linear bands will gradually evolve into broken band convective structures with time as storms move east. Strengthening 700-mb flow (40-50 kt) amidst diurnally steepened 0-2 km lapse rates will favor strong to severe gusts. Damaging winds (55-70 mph) are expected to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowing segments. Farther north, the northern extent of a destabilizing warm sector immediately ahead of the deepening surface low, will favor an increasing severe risk this afternoon. Scattered storm development is initially forecast near the higher terrain with additional cellular development expected (consistent signal in recent HRRR runs) in the northern VA to southeast PA corridor late this afternoon and especially into the evening. Given the moist low levels and favorably shaped hodographs in proximity to the surface low, have enlarged 5-percent tornado probabilities for a supercell-tornado risk. Some consideration for higher tornado probabilities was given, but confidence was too low at this time. Damaging gusts and large hail are also possible with the stronger storms.

10% tor probs were considered... woah @Kmlwx @high risk

Probably not, but LWX did mention the threat in its AFD oking at tonight, as the low slowly pulls away, some showers likely linger on the back side of the low as well. One thing of concern is the 850mb wind field on the back side of the low during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning. Will have to watch for some sneaky strong wind gusts if there is a heavy enough shower to bring that wind down to the surface. The hi-res guidance has a concerning amount of agreement on some high-end wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph potentially reaching the surface, so it is something I am growing increasingly concerned about. This is something to keep an eye on, given that this would occur during a very sensitive time period, being during the overnight. Should this trend continue, a short-duration Wind Advisory may need to be considered. Perhaps if things are still convective in nature, they could be handled with short-fused convective warnings as well.

I don't see that on their Twitter page or main school page

Yup Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode is lower, with some guidance suggesting the potential for discrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These storms would have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially pose a tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidence increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in this area, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the 1630z Convective Outlook.

@Ellinwood - on board and good for tornado potential

Was it supposed to be mostly sunny and mostly blue skies this morning?

Also, zones now say sunny and hot with highs around 90 for next Wednesday and Thursday

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 .A wavy slow moving frontal system will meander about the area on Friday evening into the night. Anomalous moisture coupled with high rainfall rates should increase the risk of flash flooding over portions of this watch area. DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ036>040-050-051- 053>057-501-502-505-506-526-527-301530- /O.CON.KLWX.FA.A.0008.250530T2300Z-250531T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As a slow-moving frontal system tracks across the area, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. While initially posing a severe weather threat, a shift to a slow moving complex of moderate to heavy rain unfolds into the evening and night. Storm totals could reach 2 to 3 inches, locally nearing 4 inches in spots. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information.

It does now for most Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 .A wavy slow moving frontal system will meander about the area on Friday evening into the night. Anomalous moisture coupled with high rainfall rates should increase the risk of flash flooding over portions of this watch area. MDZ003-VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-301530- /O.EXA.KLWX.FA.A.0008.250530T2300Z-250531T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Clarke-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral- Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 317 AM EDT Fri May 30 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, including the following area, Washington, Virginia, including the following areas, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Clarke, Eastern Highland, Frederick VA, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Warren and Western Highland, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Eastern Pendleton, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, Morgan, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton. * WHEN...From this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As a slow-moving frontal system tracks across the area, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. While initially posing a severe weather threat, a shift to a slow moving complex of moderate to heavy rain unfolds into the evening and night. Storm totals could reach 2 to 3 inches, locally nearing 4 inches in spots. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information.

00z NAM Nest looks interesting... granted the storms weaken by the time they get up here... but those look nasty in the SW parts of the LWX CWA

18z NAM NEST shows good amount of UDH swath just south of DC metro

Hmmm, from this morning LWX AFD The end of the week into this weekend is starting to look more interesting with each run of model guidance. Those two upper-lows may try to phase into one over the eastern CONUS during this timeframe. Should this occur, a powerful surface low could bring some impactful weather to the region. Lots of uncertainty at this point however, so going to keep it vague for now. Just know that this is a period to watch this week.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 112 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 MDZ509-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-250115- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0005.250525T0500Z-250525T1300Z/ Western Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 112 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation, especially in valleys. * WHERE...In Maryland, Western Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold

Did NWS Nashville lose power or shelter? All of their warnings and updates are coming from NWS Fort Worth the past 20 minutes

Sounds like another good soaking late Tuesday into Thursday... another 1-2"

New severe thunderstorm watch up for WV until 5am https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0273.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Ohio Western Virginia West Virginia * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1130 PM until 500 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should spread eastward overnight while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Parkersburg WV to 5 miles west southwest of Bluefield WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

@nrgjeff tornado watch coming https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0830.html Mesoscale Discussion 0830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Middle and Eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 170118Z - 170215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be need this evening for Middle and Eastern Tennessee, as a line of supercell thunderstorms has developed along a surface cold front and begun moving east-southeastward. Potentially strong tornadoes, damaging winds of 60-80 MPH, and large hail are all possible with severe storms this evening. DISCUSSION...Ongoing severe thunderstorms extending from southwestern Kentucky into northern Arkansas are expected to persist and move southeastward into Middle and Eastern Tennessee this evening. 00Z sounding data from OHX shows modest to strong low-level shear, with 0-1 km SRH of 220 m^2/s^2, little to no remaining capping, and a deep effective inflow layer -- all supportive of supercells capable of producing tornadoes. However, with shear vector components being largely boundary-parallel, and some recent trends in upscale growth evident on radar, a transition from isolated supercells to supercells embedded in a quasilinear convective system is anticipated. As this transition occurs, the threat will shift from tornadoes to a damaging wind threat, with wind gusts of 60-80 MPH possible with the strongest thunderstorm outflow. Any tornadoes that do develop have the potential to be strong, and tornado watch issuance will be needed soon. ..Halbert/Gleason.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 35858806 36388807 36608766 36598578 36608489 36558386 36538364 36498350 36408346 36338347 36158361 35668392 35368416 35128446 35128641 35148706 35168755 35388792 35858806 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Mesoscale Discussion 0829 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170037Z - 170300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A tornado / wind-damage threat may develop across parts of central and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania later this evening. As a severe convective line organizes and approaches, weather watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of supercells in the lower Ohio valley. These storms are located along and near an axis of moderate to strong instability. The northern extension of the instability axis is located from central and northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania, where MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. As the convective cluster grows upscale, a linear MCS is expected to organize and move eastward through the remainder of the Ohio Valley this evening. Short-term model forecasts suggest the severe MCS will move eastward into the central Appalachians. Uncertainty exists concerning how far north this feature will track. If the severe part of the MCS ends up moving through central and northern Ohio, then a severe threat will be likely over parts of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania by mid to late evening. QLCS tornadoes and wind-damage will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40358297 40198141 40508065 41238044 41808100 41838224 41648344 41468379 40908372 40358297 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Is this the area we are watching for our overnight threat? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0269.html

New ones or from the MCS?