yoda

Just had loud thunder

Been so for almost an hour now

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1226 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 100 PM EST. * At 1226 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles west of Stafford, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Lake Ridge, Montclair, Roseville, Triangle, Dale City, Independent Hill, Garrisonville, Quantico, Ramoth, Woodbridge, Dumfries, Cherry Hill, Heflin, Aquia, Storck, Holly Corner, Occoquan, Glendie, Hartwood, and Ruby. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3834 7760 3839 7762 3842 7765 3850 7766 3872 7738 3871 7737 3873 7736 3870 7732 3871 7730 3866 7722 3866 7720 3864 7722 3863 7720 3863 7714 3861 7718 3862 7722 3849 7731 TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 226DEG 48KT 3844 7756 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0027.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Eastern/Southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1025 AM until 600 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A convective line is expected to continue eastward/northeastward into more of eastern/southeastern VA and southern MD over the next several hours. Strong wind fields across the region will support the potential for damaging gusts within this line. A low probability for a brief tornado or two also exists

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 27 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1025 AM EST WED MAR 5 2025 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-052300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0027.250305T1525Z-250305T2300Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER SOMERSET ST. MARYS WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-085-087-097- 099-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-137-145-147-149- 159-177-179-193-570-630-670-730-760-052300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0027.250305T1525Z-250305T2300Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLUVANNA GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND HANOVER HENRICO KING AND QUEEN KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA LUNENBURG MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY ORANGE POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WESTMORELAND VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE COLONIAL HEIGHTS FREDERICKSBURG HOPEWELL PETERSBURG RICHMOND

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for S MD and C VA in the LWX CWA

HCPS to Dismiss 3 Hours Early TODAY, WEDNESDAY, March 5, 2025 Harford County Public Schools, schools and offices, will close 3 hours early today, Wednesday, March 5, 2025. While weather is unpredictable, this early closure is necessary as the current weather forecast includes 40-60 MPH gusts of wind during dismissal hours. As you know, many students utilize our bus transportation and these weather conditions would make it unsafe to transport students during regular dismissal hours. All field trips are cancelled. All afterschool/evening activities are cancelled. 3/5/2025 9:15:27 AM

We'll see what's left of it when it gets up here... but watching that stuff down by Roanoke moving NE. TWs and STWs up down there

Maybe where you are, but its nearly 60 at IAD/DCA

Sounds like tor watch coming soon https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0146.html Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...much of central South and North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051222Z - 051445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The environment is beginning to rapidly change, and a ramp up in severe storm potential is likely. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes may develop through midday. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced line of convection continues to push east across the western Carolinas and southeast GA this morning, with strong gusts on the order of 40 kt common with this wind shift. Although bulk CAPE values are currently low, this will likely change over the next few hours, as low-level moisture streams in from the south. Local radar indeed shows showers now evident in a north-south streamer off the ocean. As the front interacts with the moistening air mass, conditions will continually become more favorable for rotation within the line, with brief tornadoes and damaging winds expected. Shear is extremely strong with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2 over the entire region. Further, as pockets of heating develop, additional more discrete supercells may develop, most likely during the afternoon and perhaps to the east of this early day regime. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

Pretty cool jersey tbh https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2025/03/04/capitals-cherry-blossom-jerseys-screaming-eagle-50th-anniversary/

LWX AFD from this morning on the dual threat tomorrow SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Come tomorrow, attention will turn to a very potent storm system approaching the area from the west. As of early this morning, low pressure is in the process of rapidly deepening over the Central Plains. This area of low pressure will track northeastward toward the Great Lakes tonight into tomorrow, while eventually deepening into the lower 980s hPa. A powerful upper level trough will accompany this system, with a large closed low developing in the mid-levels. Winds will be very strong through the depth of the troposphere in association with this system, with a low-level jet at 850 hPa strengthening to around 60-80 knots. A band of showers and thunderstorms is in the process of developing now over the Southern Plains. This area of showers and thunderstorms occurring coincidentally with the strong warm advection in association with the core of the low-level jet will race eastward across the southern US today, eventually approaching the area from the southwest later tonight. This activity is expected to weaken into primarily stratiform precipitation by daybreak tomorrow as it starts to move into southwestern portions of the forecast area. As this area of precipitation coincident with the core of the low-level jet/strong warm advection at low-levels progresses east of the mountains tomorrow morning, it will encounter an airmass with slightly higher dewpoints, which may lead to reinvigoration of the convective line late tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon as it moves across the area from southwest to northeast. Surface based instability appears to be minimal (100 J/kg or less), if existent at all, but most CAMs show an impressive squall line developing toward the back edge of the precipitation shield as very strong synoptic scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough arrives. As this occurs, a very strong wind field will be in place, with 60-70 knots at 850 hPa. Model soundings show very long, curved hodographs, with ample SRH. Such an environment raises concerns that damaging winds and potentially even a QLCS tornado or two may possible as the convective line moves through the region. SPC currently has us outlooked with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms to account for this potential. The aforementioned band of showers and thunderstorms will exit off toward the north and east along with the core of the LLJ by mid-afternoon, with a mid-level dry slot overspreading most of the area from southwest to northeast. Additional surface heating will occur within this mid-level dry slot as clouds clear out, resulting in the development of surface based instability within a still highly sheared environment. With the best synoptic scale ascent moving off to our north and east, questions remain regarding how much development of additional showers and thunderstorms will occur behind the first round of showers and storms. However, if storms were to occur, they`d potentially be supercellular in nature (given very long, straight hodographs), and capable of producing both damaging winds and hail. It currently appears as though western portions of the forecast area would have the best chance of seeing storms with the second round later tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, as they`ll clear out first and have the longest duration of surface heating. They`ll also have greater forcing at low-levels as a pre-frontal trough, and eventually the surface cold front move in from the west late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025

SLGT risk for everyone on new Day 2 morning update... 2/15/15 ENH introduced in SE VA into the Carolinas

The Twilight Zone?

Afternoon AFD from LWX on the severe threat An active weather day lies ahead on Wednesday with areas along and east of the Blue Ridge in a Day 3 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The 12Z high-resolution model suite shows two possible rounds of convection. What remains of a line of severe thunderstorms tracking across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday night will overspread the local area late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Anticipate the Mid-Atlantic region being heavily clouded over which would limit the available instability. Heading into the remainder of the afternoon hours, temperatures should push into the low/mid 60s, with mainly 50s over mountain locales. Models show a dry slot pushing through the area which may allow for some breaks in the cloud cover. As this occurs, the 0-6 km vertical shear increases to some rather extreme values of 85 to 95 knots. Given enough residual buoyancy in the atmosphere, a discernible risk of severe weather would occur. However, as usual, a number of factors have to be ironed out in the next day. For now, prepare for a potential of damaging wind gusts, along with a tornado or two.

(from this afternoon AFD from LWX for the weekend) This coming weekend could get rather interesting across the area. Model guidance for a while now has hinted at a powerful storm system impacting some portions of the Mid-Atlantic. This has not gone away, and some of the deterministic guidance has painted a really interesting picture over our region. However, its important not to get to caught up in individual model runs at this juncture, as they will waffle around between different scenarios many times between now and then. There are several upper-level features that look to interact to make this system happen, which is often very poorly modeled at this time range. The key is, all hazards look to be in play with this system, it is just a matter of where. Our region could see anything from heavy rain, to perhaps even some areas seeing heavy snow, or this system could just straight up miss the area entirely. The uncertainty is just far too high at this point, and hopefully there will be a bit more consistency as these features work their way into the CONUS over the coming days. Additionally, we can`t ignore the fact that this is March we are talking about, and there will assuredly be questions regarding the thermodynamic environment and timing of precipitation. That all being said, have added some snow into the forecast for Saturday night into Sunday, but kept slight chance POPs at the moment, given the uncertainty. Continue to check the forecast for the latest updates each day, but next weekend is definitely something to watch.

About time https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44093195/nationals-orioles-settle-lengthy-dispute-masn-tv-rights

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025

SPC day 3 morning outlook makes it sound if there is two distinct threat periods on Wednesday - morning and then late afternoon

All 3 zone issued HWOs from LWX (issued at 411pm) now mention tornado chances for Wednesday DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are possible on Wednesday. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well. Strong west to northwest winds, including gale conditions, are possible on Thursday behind a strong cold front.

Didn't know there will be a full lunar eclipse on the 14th in the very early morning hours

Mention of tornado and supercells in this morning's AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... By Wednesday morning, a strong, occluded surface low will have tracked to near Chicago, with an accompanying deep upper trough/closed mid-level low occupying much of the eastern half of the CONUS. As large scale ascent downstream of the approaching upper trough starts to overspread the area, a strong low-level jet (around 60-80 knots at 850 hPa) will move in from the southwest. Warm advection driven precipitation associated with this strong low-level jet should move across the area from southwest to northeast during the morning to early afternoon hours. Model soundings within this warm advection regime show a deep moist neutral to slightly stable profile, with very long, curved hodographs. This would likely result in a period of stratiform rain, but a narrow convective line that`s strongly forced on the synoptic scale (by differential cyclonic vorticity advection driven ascent) can`t be ruled out on the back edge of the precipitation shield. If such a line were to materialize, it could pose a threat for strong to severe wind gusts, and possibly even a QLCS tornado. As the stronger low-level jet and associated warm advection depart off to our north and east during the afternoon, we should break out into the warm sector while a mid- level dry slot simultaneously works in aloft. This should enable daytime heating and development of some surface based instability from southwest to northeast during the late morning to afternoon hours. Within the dry slot, model soundings show straight, but very long hodographs, with ample deep layer shear available to any storms that form. Large scale forcing for ascent will be lesser both at low- levels (with the loss of warm advection) and aloft (with the strongest DCVA driven ascent departing off toward the east. The combination of surface heating and gradual height falls aloft may be enough for some additional showers or thunderstorms to form during the afternoon. Storms could also potentially form along the system`s surface cold front, but various models differ on the timing of the cold frontal passage, with some guidance (such as the GFS) moving the front into western portions of the forecast area prior to sunset, while others (such as the Euro and Canadian) hold the frontal passage off until after dark. If storms were to form during the afternoon within the dry slot, supercells primarily capable of producing damaging winds and hail could be possible. As of yesterday morning, SPC highlighted much of the forecast area in a rare day 5 Slight Risk to account for the potential of severe thunderstorms. With ongoing drought across much of the area and very dry conditions over the past week, rainfall with this system looks like it will be largely beneficial in nature, with most guidance showing around a half of an inch to an inch of precipitation. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will be gusty out of the south, with high temperatures generally in the 60s.

FWIW, Cappucci from CWG has been talking this threat up and mentioned ENH possibility https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1895852340663754874